This Tesla Rival CEO Will Likely Be First to License FSD!
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- Опубліковано 4 жов 2024
- We're diving deep into Tesla's Full Self-Driving tech compared to XiaoPeng, the CEO of a Chinese automaker testing FSD in the US. Check out CEO reactions, insights on Tesla's smooth handling, and possible future partnerships. Plus, we look at Waymo Robotaxis' expansion in San Francisco, covering safety claims and public reception.
Larry Goldberg is a serial entrepreneur (co-founder of Sapiens Decision), angel investor, and co-author of the book “The Decision Model”.
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Edited by: Roshan Khatiwada
#Tesla #robotaxi #Xiaopeng #Waymo #ElonMusk #TeslaNews #teslabot #technology #AI #TeslaFSD #teslastockanalysis #TeslaUpdate #ElonMuskNews #EV #FSD #TSLA #robotaxi #autonomousdriving #TeslaStock #selfdrivingcars #autonomousvehicle Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for discussion and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All views expressed are personal opinion as of date of recording and are subject to change without responsibility to update views. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel. Neither host or guests can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Author is long TSLA and other stocks at time of original video publish date.
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Overall, analysts are more bullish on Nvidia stock, however it's important to consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions
Right, investing with the help of an advisor set me up for life, retired as a millionaire at 55. I worked hard everyday as a teacher for 32 years, and my salary was over 100k annually, until the 2020 covid lockdown. I wouldn't have supplemented my income with stocks and alternative investments if it wasn't for the crisis. Find the Positive in every situation.
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Love Larry and love your work, Herbert.
Herbert, the most important metric to ask is how many humans are need per 100 Waymo vehicles in operation because this provides the human labor force that adds to the cost of operating the fleet. It really doesn’t matter if each humans operator intervenes 10 times an hour or 100 times an hour - or after 5 miles of autonomous driving or 20 miles of driving, Waymo has to pay each operator for the eight hour day no matter how busy they were.
I hope Tesla will be proactive in figuring out how to remotely operate a robotaxi when it gets into trouble. Every story of a stranded Tesla customer will hit the news big time.
What platform does waymo use😅Use?😊
I'll say that FSD is just fine although its route planner needs to catch up and give support to the ADAS.
In the past Larry said multiple times that there is a spot in his neighborhood where FSD stuck and is unable to get out of the neighborhood. So, was this problem solved with Version 12? Or is it still a problem? PLEASE ANSWER THIS!!!
Why does this need to be answered? A beta version will still have issues. Even if it works in your named situation, likely v12 will be stuck on other situations. Later we'll see newer versions that have more and more edge cases resolved until we reach a release version.
Is giving your competition the keys to your technology like FSD a wise decision? Why? XPENG was known to have stolen the code in the past. What actions did Tesla take to retaliate if any? Would Tesla consider giving Waymo the same partnership possibilities? I would be very shocked if they did. Am I missing something? Thanks guys.. excellent episode as usual. Larry is definitely one of my favorite guests on your channel!👍
Giving access does not mean letting the competition getting all the training data, training hardware, and the hugely customized training software. The partners will get a neural net model which cannot be reverse engineered. If anyone want to catch up, they will need the billions of hardware, plus million of miles of driving data, and assume that they can hire the bright minds equal to the ones that made Tesla's FSD possible.
Now we have to modernize Civil Engineering (Road Planning and Design) to take into account (and improve) future Self Driving traffic.
Interesting discuss
It is very important for Tesla should provide a Hot Line (like 191, 999) for immediate contact, so they will send out a vehicle to rescue just like an ambulance.
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Why would Musk want to go and see their XNGP in China? It would be -- "Been there done that." I think a very worried CEO went back to China.
He would only do that to build up his good relations to XPeng as a potential partner/customer.
He’s happy because he’s licensing it 😉
Even Tesla will need some tele operators... elevators have a service in case something goes wrong... it's just a question of how many operators per vehicle...
At the mlment, Waymo amd Baidu strategy does not look scalable. Tesla's does.
How can no ome be talking about insurance? Or what happens when there's an accident, or the police are trying to pull over a FSD car? Surely there most be some sort of plan. I assume Tesla will be liable for the actions of FSD, right?
No one talks about it because it had been talked about years ago. Elon answered this in investor questions back then and the stance haven't changed. Tesla will cover the cost of any accidents caused by FSD, not the driver. Any states which approve level 5 autonomy will first tackle first responder issues and other situations before giving out the license. That also shouldn't be a surprise.
We should all be happy if Tesla Stock reaches 220$ this year and stays there
This is true for the trader, but not relevant for the Tesla investor that is looking for multiple X returns over 5-7 or longer time horizon.
There is no FSD
Musk's approach to many of his businesses uses a retail OPM (other people's money) business model. The primary capital investment to implement a Tesla robotaxi network is funded by Tesla vehicle owners. This is huge leverage that is off-balance-sheet for Tesla.
Government regulations will be Elons only obstacle 😜
$TSLA = The “3+ year decline” that makes all investors say.. (please hurry up and deliver on a promise!!) 😩
Humans are not as safe as robotaxis, but a human is capable of handling virtually any edge case you throw at them. How do we get robotaxis to be able to do that?
Same way as humans, using large neural nets. Tesla is already doing that.
You'd need an AI that can generalize its existing knowledge to solve new problems(artificial general intelligence) , just like humans do.
@@TheSpartan3669 It's weird. Human intelligence can do so much more than drive a car, yet it seems like human intelligence is not just sufficient but necessary for driving.
@@TheSpartan3669
That's how modern AI works, including FSD.
@@andrasbiro3007 It's not. We haven't developed artificial general intelligence yet.
I believe lydar came from Israel
The narrative has been kept at FSD "muat be perfect" to be up, even for consideration. Soon it will become apparent that human drivers are what is dangerous. Soon we will look back incredulously wondering that vehicles had things called steering wheels and brake pedals and human drivers were allowed to crash, maim and kill others. This will be reflected in insurance rates.
Soon, self-flying robotaxis will land in my backyard and take me wherever I want to go in a straight line without traffic lights. But how soon?
Waymo has lidar, detailed 3D maps, teleoperators and geofencing, and it has operating robotaxis. Tesla has yet to show that it can operate robotaxis with only optical sensors, no detailed maps, no teleoperators and no geofence. I believe it can operate robotaxis without lidar, but I'm much more skeptical that it'll operate robotaxis anywhere people drive without teleoperators next year. I'd bet against it, and I'll be watching this channel next year to see if Goldberg eats his words if he's mistaken.
But geofenced robotaxis with teleoperators are a perfectly acceptable step toward more ubiquitous, fully autonomous vehicles. Don't make the perfect the enemy of the good.
To be fair, I hadn't heard Goldberg hedge his bets around 20:00 when I wrote the comment above.
@BrighterwithHerbert21 F off, scammer.
What we think is possible or not matters little. The statistics of number of interventions is what matters, and Tesla is currently far behind but in a completely non-geofenced environment. If you lock FSD functionalities in only one city, likely Tesla can come very close as all training would be catered to a much smaller subset of situations. Of course, that's by itself is an assumption. Time will tell if FSD can reach full autonomy with cameras alone. I let FSD drive me around every day and although I do intervene here and there, it's rarely because it was stuck, but I just wanted to go faster because I'm an aggressive driver. It does feel like we're close, but anecdotal experience matters little.
All the items mentioned that Waymo relies on are the very items that make Waymo limited and un scaleable… not to mention the cost of each Waymo vehicle…
@@777skypilot The point is that Waymo, however unscaleable, uses this technology, so robotaxis with this technology are the only proven robotaxis. FSD robotaxis are entirely theoretical at this point. I'd love to see the theory proven true, but I'd love to have a flying car too.
Waymo is not an electric car, so the maintenance expenses would be much higher
Most Waymos are electric.
The Robotaxi initial launch announcement is going to have to astonish if it goes anywhere and that means all major cities of the USA. It would have to be the same or more cities where Waymo operates and soon after it should shock the investment community with similar announcements in China and Europe. That will definitely pop the stock, the crucial move that we have been looking or with Justin and Cern.
If Tesla announces production of a dedicated robotaxi (no steering wheel) without also announcing that 1) FSD can operate with more than 10k miles per intervention in a geofenced region and 2) a system of remote monitoring and override (possibly using Starlink), the stock may fall rather than rising. Producing vehicles with no steering wheel without a very clear path to putting them on the street will not please investors.
Tesla still needs a sub-$30k vehicle regardless of robotaxis. If it doesn't also announce this vehicle on 8/8, more investors will be spooked.
I think you guys and practically everyone else are missing some important factors on how ready Tesla's vehicles are to be made available as robotaxis by private owners. Currently, only the Cybertruck has been engineered to have full steer-by-wire with no physical connection between the steering wheel and the steering rack, and the Cybertruck would be the least efficient form factor for an autonomous taxi.
Imagine how dangerous it would be to have some jackass try to steer your autonomous car while riding as a passenger. The Cybertruck could merely ignore user input via software, but none of the other models have this capability. Someone at Tesla mentioned removing the steering wheel and replacing it with a cap of some sort. This would solve the problem, but would be a major inconvenience for an owner who wants a steering wheel when they are in their car.
Beyond that, FSD cannot continue to handle parking lots so aimlessly. For someone to go grocery shopping for example, there are dropoff/pickup locations at most large chains that the cars need to know about and have mapped. I've seen no progress on this yet. They also need to know the layout of parking lots in relation to adjacent streets so they don't have to wander around parking lots looking for exits where they don't exist and potentially get themselves stuck in dead ends.
I could go on and on, there are still significant barriers to autonomous Teslas safely and efficiently navigating non-road spaces.
Imagine the PTSD probability for a teleoperator watching several cars with high intervention requirements
It's akin to air traffic control. Seems doable, and Waymo is already doing it.
If Tesla FSD is10 times safer than human drivers, will insurance costs be 1/10 with FSD?
Insurance is not necessary. Tesla is big enough to shoulder any costs from accidents themselves
Tesla may need to offer Robo-Taxi with a human supervisor to collect video data on the drop-off and pick-up phase for a taxi. Obviously they can do that with the current fleet. The operation of identifying the rider and pulling over so the rider can safely enter the vehicle. Ditto for the drop-off. There must be tons of strange variations on these actions... just consider airports, hotels, points on a street, parks, homes, schools, apartments, congestion, wrong side of the street, street blockages, etc. Does the rider wave their phone with a full-screen bar or QR code at the car or does the car use face recognition? Is the bluetooth range sufficient? Is GPS accuracy sufficient, will it work around tall buildings or covered pickup points? Does the app negotiate the pickup and drop-off point with the rider? This feels like a class of video Tesla needs to acquire to do an autonomous Robo-Taxi. Of course it also lets them evolve the app.
Tesla could use an advanced AI for teleoperation instead of humans. This way it would scale better but still be AI only.
AI is not a panacea, but AI will undoubtedly be part of remote monitoring and override for any robotaxi system.