The so called "leverage" Dunne is talking is not happening once the business is in operations. That happens when negotiating for setting up the company in a given location. AND, MOST IMPORTANT, company wants to leverage to negotiate for favors (taxes, lands, and other favors). NO need to leverage if a company simply wants to set up its business in China. Be my guest, as long as it complies to the laws (environmental and fire safety...) Tesla got so much favor from the city of Shanghai... in return to a promise of sales tax contribute and manufacturing localization. The city of Shanghai bent backward and tried very hard to support Tesla. Literally doing the sales promotion... and given it much more than the subsidies any other Chinese EV companies have got.
China never want to kick out those foreign automakers. Those companies have been too comfortable with those great easy money they made from Chinese customers.
Your comment about GM in China just show your bias. Nobody stops GM from selling cars in China, if they cannot improvise their products and as a result, consumers choose other products, how is this China fault? It only shows that Chinese Market is competitive and brutal nothing to do with the country's industrial policy. Ask yourself if GM is selling well worldwide in the past 2 decades? The answer is decidedly No. It's Americans automotive industry problems. Don't blame others for your own shortcoming
What Chinese automakers are trying to destroy is another Chinese automaker. American car companies are just caught in the crossfire of this brutal and ruthless competition between Chinese automakers, or they end up getting overwhelmed without even knowing why. This logic is similar to how the 100th-ranked Chinese table tennis player can easily defeat the top-ranked American player.
It is so untrue that China tries to kick foreign companies out. True, China needed these companies in China so that they can learn from them. But foreign companies left because China has out innovated them. Some smaller foreign owned factories left because they can no longer compete with higher labor costs. Legacy auto such as Ford, GM, Mitsubishi, etc... closed down because they sat on their butts and enjoyed the "easy $2 billion profit" instead of finding ways to make better products. To be fair, China told the whole world that they are going electric, but NO...... legacy auto didn't even paid attention and here we are today
Agreed, think VW was one of the biggest culprits, sold them any old rubbish, and I mean old, because China needed anything they could get. As times changed the Chinese consumer matured and VW just sat on their backsides counting the money. Well times change and now the chickens are coming home to roost.
No one in Asia buys US cars. Everyone buys Japanese or Korean. Now that Chinese cars are of EV, high quality and low cost, everyone in Asia is thinking of buying Chinese. Asian are pragmatic people; ie get the best value for the buck. Unfortunately US cars were displaced from Asia a few generations ago.
@@lawrencepak1917 American car companies are losing the plot with their cars getting more and more expensive. Most people can’t afford a new car. That’s crazy. If American companies made some good new cars at 10-20k, they would compete globally.
I didn’t remember China was raising it as a national security concern when the Western/Japanese brands were and too some degrees are still dominating the Chinese market. Even though the guest is knowledgeable, he is being a somewhat sensationalist. Let’s not forget his livelihood as an automobile industry consultant depends on getting contracts from the automakers. In other words, not in line with average consumers.
True. China produces 5 million STEM graduates annually, 5 times more than USA. They work 2 times harder, 2 time longer, they are 2 times more efficient. So China work force is 5x2x2x2 = 40 times more effective than USA. How can they not win?
US, without Tesla, is FAR BEHIND China in tech development for transportation. North America is insufficient market to fund legacy auto, making old school, combustion vehicles.
Not true, without Tesla there likely won't be Chinese EV either. They took what Roadster and Model S to shaped the EV landscape. People don't understand or give Tesla enough credit their influence in China. One of the reasons why China allows Tesla to rightfully own a factory in China outright.
@@nguyep4 Examples? BYD was founded as a Battery manufacturer in... 1995. Byd Auto? 2003 First Hybrid? 2008 First BEV? 2009 ..... Catl? Founded 2011. They were already planning..... While over that period Tesla was being dismissed as irrelevant "at home".
@@rogerstarkey5390 Battery is one of the components of EV. Having that is not enough to make a good EV. The powertrain, the electronics, the software, etc. Look at the EV after the roadster and Model S.
US has most valuable market even as China has bigger numbers, faster growth, more NEVs. US legacy forfeited the game. EV1 team started 30 odd years ago & had prototypes even earlier. Patent system locked up a lot of knowledge - who did that? US marketed excess, huge SUVs, not motivated by efficiency. Extra fries, upsize, upgrade, consume, status.
Seems odd to sat that since we did fund legacy auto for over a hundred years. If you mean the changeover to electric cars, no problem legacy auto will simply go bankrupt.
The laws have changed in China. 100% wholly owned foreign entities is possible. Tesla may be unique in the auto industry but the multinational OEMs are either operating under historical relationships or feel that a tie-up with a government supported company will provide them some opportunity or protection. But wholly owned foreign entities is no longer rare.
I have been in China almost 20 years now. I came over to make tools for GM that would be sent to Mexico and the US for production. The Issue really quick to see was that the Chinese can reverse engineer anything with some help from us. They did not know a lot about the correct machines to make good tools, but all the foreigners getting tools made here taught them or showed them. Now the big advantage here in China is the Chinese companies here's willingness to work the hours to get the job done. And we foreigners should help them do it right. The Issues are like you said. Big profits for GM or Ford or others. But now big loss for those companies. The cars bought today in China are EV's. Gas is about $4 to $6 a gallon and soon to go higher. But Electricity here is quite reasonable. I pay about $50 to $70 a month for my house's electricity. I can charge my EV right in my diveway, as I do not have garage. My house in Texas cost me over $1,000 a month. A majority of the DiDi's (Ubers) here drive Electric Vehicles so the cost is really only their time. The cost to charge the EV is really cheap. In the US, I worked at Chrysler HQ, Ford Milan, Fisher Body Tech Center, and GM Engineering. Bottom Line Foreign Companies came to China to make a buck for their stockholders and themselves. And soon you will pay for that. China is making EV and soon will pass Boeing. Their space and military ventures are good. Believe it.
Tesla investor here, great interview to understand what is going on around the world on EV, very respectful conversation to mold my thoughts on the future, thank you.
It has always surprised me as to how little recognition Tesla gets in the USA. It almost seems as if the USA wants Tesla to fail. Tesla should be seen as a national treasure. The mind boggles.
Draw the analogy between the "US" (Gov, Media and as a result public) reaction to both Tesla.... and China. If you take a step back, it's remarkably similar. Threatened, confrontational, obstructive.
Essential insights, even for a small Tesla investor like me. Historically, China's huge petroleum imports encouraged the engineers in the Chinese government to go electric, not just in EVs. Maybe USA was discouraged from EVs by people who did not want Americans to switch from gas to electric.
The other driver for China to go EVs was the incredible urban air pollution that was essentially all ICEV caused. China had already moved to cleaner coal plants and located them away from their cities. They had replaced huge numbers of coal boilers and stoves. In the US big oil and legacy auto can pollute the media with anti-EV FUD. In China the media reports only what the government wants reported, so if the government is pushing EVs....
I own a BYD Atto3 in Australia. I have owned it for greater than 12 months. It has been Faultless with OTA updates. 50K AUD in cost. For the US. It needs to be in Australia we have the minerals in excess and have many partnerships with the US.
August 8 had passed, what happened? BYD just introduced and sold Seal with LiDAR as standard feature, is it a sign that Vision alone is not enough for autonomous driving?
51% local ownership of a company is common throughout Asia, same with freehold property, it’s only in the west that we sell out to the highest bidder for short term gain.
@@silentmajority9162 I lived malaysia and Thailand for 11 years and I can tell you for fact you cannot own as a foreigner a freehold property you can buy a condo though, and a business has to be 51% owned by a local
@@broadreach3120 I know about the property rule of Thailand but not heard of 51% local ownership for company. I know that Malaysia required a native to be shareholder, but no sure 51% requirement.
@@silentmajority9162 google it mate , I’ve a lot of friends who have their own businesses in Thailand and west Malaysia and they all have 49% ownership of their companies, but there are deals to be made. Beautiful countries and smart people unlike the west they don’t sell out there best assets
@@silentmajority9162 it’s very common in Asia. Google it yourself and you’ll see. Maybe not auto companies. But investment is restricted in a different way. Foreign ownership of a major media company in the US is also restricted.
The problem for US is lacking behind in EVs, is that Why US is always thinking US is leading in technology while China is more successful in commercializing. According to ASPI report In 44 critical tech, China is leading in 37 while US is in 7 only!
I hate to admit it but the Chinese have a more successful form of government. Autocratic regulated capitalism. Lots of intense competition, but directed by government who can focus on long term goals. In US, we have a very indecisive and very corrupted government that is inherently in conflict and not long term focused. The US has human rights and China doesn't. This makes the US a better place to live. When people get to decide what they want, they want luxuries and rights. They don't want to be told what to do. They don't care so much about next generations. Fine. But in terms of technology and GDP and military capabilities, we are going to fall behind China. For example, it took decades and millions of dollars spent in court and lobbying (bribes) and advertising to ban one-use plastic bags which are bad for the environment. Ultimately, that failed 100%. In fact it got worse as people now have to pay for heavy-duty single-use plastic bags, so more plastic is being produced and dumped than before. Why? Because people are too lazy to use canvas bags. Too "inconvenient" to have to bring empty bags in from car and they refuse to be forced to do so. But China banned them in one day by autocratic decree. Chinese government studied the energy and automotive industries and decided solar panels and EVs are better than ICE, so they just directed industry to go there. China took over and now dominates both industries. US government may decide solar and EVs are better, but when next President is Republican, all that initiative is rolled back. Oil and gas industry tells the government what to do, decides who will be president with campaign donations. In a democracy, everyone argues to see who convinces the people what to do, but many people are stupid and corporations are too powerful, so it is very difficult to get anything done. The only reason the US spent any money at all going to space and the moon was for political reasons to compete with Russia. As soon as Russia faltered, the US dropped practically the entire space effort for 50 years and is only now thinking of getting back because the Chinese are doing it. China loves Elon because he is smart and looks to the future and makes it happen. But US thinks Elon is bad, too rich, forces them to change, harms legacy corporations, etc. US people have become too lazy, too complacent, feel they are best in world, and refuse to acknowledge the world is changing. Many Americans actually think we can return to greatness by moving backward!
It is perfectly reasonable to wish for a president and a leadership in America which stands to praise and express appreciation for Tesla and for having Tesla at home.🇺🇸🚘🇺🇸
UNLESS your President (Past, present and future) "operates" in a system based on.... "Incentive Based Prioritisation of Policy and Objectives"? If that were the case, you might witness a similar reaction to that we see today?
Your presidents are too busy in trying to stop others' progress and destroy the competitors than solving the internal issue and reflect on own short-comings. American politician are too busy with election and personal agenda that they have no time for work.
one more thing: traditional legency car makers are not only behind in evs. more importantly, they completly ignored the opportunity in big battery long range hybrid cars. in the end, its not a competition in whos car is more green, its who make the better cars that more markets around the world like and can afford interms of not only money but also infrastructure. not all countries have the charging network we have in US and China. Hybrid will very likely to be the better option. it gives you ev experience (space, quietness, smart cabin system, accerlations etc.) and at the same time the option to use gas when you cant charge your car.
It's interesting that after the Cold War, researchers analysed the collapse of the USSR. One key reason identified was that while the USSR was highly advanced in science and technology, the U.S. excelled at commercialising innovations, sometimes even those originating from the USSR. At the time, being able to successfully commercialise technology was a significant advantage for a country to prove their politic system was better than the other.
Did first drive with 12.4.3 today. Overall it's better than 12.3.6. I did have one intervention that would have resulted in an accident. It was a hour long drive other than that 1 very real intervention it did amazing. Video should hit channel i about an hour or so.
If everyone had 1 intervention a year that would have resulted in an accident that would infer human driving is substantially safer than full autonomy at that intervention rate. The rate of intervention needs to be something like once in 20 years. Then the rate of accidents might be better than humans. Most people I know either have no accidents in many years or on average once in 15-20 years. Insurance companies would be broke if accidents were everyone once a year.
Our US government leadership is in such a sad state of affairs. The advisors don’t do their jobs any better than the rest of the blood suckers riding on the private sectors backs. 😅So sad how the administration doesn’t support Elon is a better way. 😅
As i understand, China has a far higher concentration of engineers and scientists throughout Government... go figure. (Who'd think that a logical mind would be useful?)
That's not true, Tesla is the only way we can afford. The people in D.C. are doing their jobs, its just not the jobs you want them to do. Change is bad, I'm afraid of change, I actually might have to go to work.
Won’t be any different with the Trump administration. If anything, probably worse. As a Tesla investor, I’m still able to be objective and know that Elon/Tesla is benefiting hugely from the IRA. Without price subsidies for EVs, Tesla’s profit margin now would be much worse. Don’t hear Elon complaining about the IRA subsidy.
I worked at Fisher Body in 1984. The federal government broke up GM then as they were to profitable. The made the Car Divisions and closed Fisher Body and sent the engineers to the 4 winds. I wonder if you know the History of what happened at GM.
China used to like everything American, including cars... But their politicians and media are making them really hard to like. Not surprised that lots of countries including China are boycotting American products.
One thing was not pointed about the challenges for US auto industry to develop competitive EVs is that the incumbent supply chains (gasoline, machining, auto parts, etc) would not support this transition. Beside, US would not have enough electricity capacity to support millions of charging stations. Such fundamental changes can not be led a private industry.
I watched Michael's previous interview video, where he said that Chinese car companies cannot compete with Japanese car companies. But Michael's statement today is different every time. The rules of the game are changing
As a Tesla investor and someone who lives in Asia, it is great to finally see in-depth insight into the Tesla’s main adversaries which are the China automakers. Make no mistake China is driven, very smart and huge. No fault of their own as you mentioned Farzad, most channels on YT keep comparing Tesla to US and European carmakers and stating how well Elon Musk is doing against these western legacy automakers. No! My worry has been China and Michael Dunne has hit the nail on the head. My biggest concern is technology transfer and once China understands everything Tesla has especially in software and FSD it nudges Tesla out. It’s great that Elon has an excellent relationship with China but it’s one that works while there is a mutual benefit. Musk has a big brain and I know he’s thought this out and has a plan. I am an optimistic by nature ☺️ But this is my main concern for Tesla’s future in next 5-10 years.
China knows about Tesla software. What China has yet to do, is put millions of cars with cameras and computers on the road to collect the data necessary for AI FSD. Chinese companies can hand code the basics of self-driving. But we can see that solution is limited, expensive, and requires remote backup drivers to deal with lots of encountered problems.
the FSD is overhyped, I have yet to see a Tesla without a driver moving on the roads. I don't think the current crop of FSD can cut it for level 4 or 5 autonomy.
@@passby8070 Of course you haven't seen a Tesla on the road without a driver. The system is not yet complete. But here's the thing. You don't know as much about Tesla FSD as you should.
Guys, many cities in China have already commercialising FSD eg.. taxi in a restrict area for now. Of course, there will be continuous improvement on it. China is also commercialising flying taxi (drone) in couple areas as well.
@@seanixt No, Michael conveniently left out a lot of points. He dare not venture into speaking the inconvenient truths. He's implying that it's all China's faults.
Good conversation, but I’d caution against thinking that car manufacturing being lost to China is a national security issue. China has been the factory for the world (for MANY things, not just cars) for decades. If that’s the case, losing manufacturing competitiveness to China should have been a national security issue ages ago, not just now because of cars/EVs.
China IS NOT a "Risk to US National Security". . The US ATTITUDE to China (and frankly MANY other countries) is the biggest risk..... To the US. . REDEFINE "NATIONAL SECURITY" In "21st Century terms" . Stop chewing your own foot off.
@@fatdoi003 Ok, their greed will be their undoing. The sad thing is this has happened before first with Japan and then with South Korea. The stupidity bugs me, they're risking their entire existence by hanging on to yesterday.
@@paulkelly9250 because they'll always have their big daddy the u.s gov't to either bail them out of put tariffs on their competitors or both.... then they make donations to political parties, shaft the unions and their workers go to rallies and scream USA USA.... and buy merch that's made in china.....
One other thing. To make sense of a full-scale shift from ICE to EV, it will be essential that the capacity to generate MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GREEN ENERGY must be in place. The Chinese figured that out from the get go and doubled down on nuclear energy. Have American leaders even thought about it?
Realistic Robotaxi Plan for Tesla 1. Tesla can use FSD to deliver a car to the customer: Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology can autonomously deliver vehicles to customers' locations, providing a convenient and efficient service. 2. Let customers use their own insurance to drive the car as if they were rental cars: Customers can drive the delivered car using their personal insurance, similar to how traditional rental cars operate. Advantages: 1. Saving the insurance fee: By allowing customers to use their own insurance, Tesla can eliminate the additional insurance costs typically associated with rental or ride-sharing services. 2. Appealing to a broader range of customers: Customers who do not fully trust FSD technology can still use the robotaxi service by driving the cars themselves. This flexibility makes the service more attractive to a wider audience, including those who prefer traditional driving.
This might help, if you put a title like this. Take the first 3-5 sentences and say what is in the title. Or even like an introduction video describing what the title says. Those clickable titles are getting pretty annoying.
Agreed. Except for conclusion; in US best for govt to "get out of the way". Culture is in flux, in dispute, obsessed by history, hedonism or (him/her-)self. This is why Texas is good home to Tesla - given toxic woke culture / Trump nonsense. Post-nationalism. ** acknowledging that California drives tech & green tech, but gone to mush.
But Hans (worryingly "as usual") defines it in terms of a "War which China is winning" rather than either "Incompetence of US Generals (of industry)" or an opportunity to pursue "Peace". . Analogy You're "A Painter of floors" . If you're painted into a corner by your own actions, blaming someone who started in another corner and worked *towards* a door is no excuse. THEY will move to the next room while you wait for the paint to dry.
Don’t mention Baidu. Actually, HUAWEI is leading in the self-driving technology. And HUAWEI is looking forward to the competition with Tesla when its FSD is landed in China
Many foreign brands are making money in chinese market. As long as you're competitive, you can do well In the chinese market. Toyota And walls wagon are still selling very well in china。
30 years ago I had a lab partner who opened my eyes to Chinese methods he was in a business selling vegetables to China. He had to have a Chinese partner who owned 51% of the business. If he ever became unneeded by the Chinese his customers would fadeaway and a similar business would open across the street.
i think the answer is there is to much influence from big oil & gas. If there wasn't so much push from them then maybe the government in the states would be able to go full tilt into electrification etc.
Regardless of how optimistic the outlook of anything is, there is always a "Biggest Risk". Even if the risk is relatively small compared to other companies.
We are living in times of dramatic change. Potential huge rewards or peril and the difference achieving either outcome relies on almost no safety buffer🙄
This is why Farzy and producer wife are so valuable. They give us info from all angles, so we can make informed decisions based on the pluses and minuses. We're in a based bubble. Best wishes to P.W., Clive and coffee cup man
Dude. You have incredible interviews with great discussions, there's no need for titles like this. You can say "new interview with Michael dunne/discussing global EV landscape future etc." It would be a lot more accurate
Outstanding content Farzad. Michael is a unique authoritative source with a real global view. Surprised though that you didn't get into the impossibility of GM and Ford being competitive with the UAW's current labor contract. In the end, it doesn't matter as they will be non-factors in tomorrow's auto industry.
West is crippled by the regulatory & quality control that originally gave them worldwide notoriety. Import Tarrifs are the equivalent of a handicap in golf. Hopefully to allow continued long tern fair play. Its inevitable that some won't survive with so many new competitors.
The recent decades of exploitation of China's auto market (Opium War II) is over. China is going global... and shutting its doors to western autos. Profits sucked out of China by legacy auto are finished. Now, autonomous driving is second wave, forming as China auto exports ramp up. One possible future is PEAK AUTO -- individual ownership of (multiple) autos having run its course and TAAS starts taking a growing share of miles traveled.
I almost agree, except that China is not "shutting its doors" China had said "let us visit you, we can ALL benefit" but USA (just politicians?) is too proud/ politically biased/ shortsighted/ insular/ scared to accept the opportunity. . The problem? That's essentially choosing to be OUT of the new game (Transition) . Agree re "Peak auto", but extend that further to "Peak EV'.
Hans (at 39.37)?! The IRA is equally beneficial to GM, Stellantis, and Ford, not just Tesla. You seem to be suggesting otherwise. The failure to fully exploit the IRA lies ENTIRELY with the OEMs. Excellent point though about the overlap of the emerging/critical tech in BEVs with that needed for modern warfare.
By the IRA allowing companies to benefit from building hybrids rather than only EVs GM, etc. have probably been hurt. It's given them a safe space in which to diddle while pure EV companies increase their lead.
The Big 3 can not compete in China and, honestly, not in North America for EVs. The labor union just forced a crazy contract, and any quality EV will cost way too much to gain any significant market share. Tesla's golden goose is the software AI and finding a way to have most EV companies put their software into their vehicles. The death of the American Auto Union and American auto workers are less than 8 years away. Once robotic car automation eliminates human workers in a 10 to 1 ratio, then and only then can any company like Ford or GM come up with anything that will be kind of cost-effective.
For Detroit (and btw Germany) it is already too late. But there is still a chance if the US administration starts supporting and aligning with Tesla. Tariffs (and subsidies to imo) are not a solution. Fertilize the capitalistic environment and help developing the required infrastructure.
China gave Tesla 100 % ownership. Tesla gave china all it's crucial patents. This enabled instant EV industry. Secondly Tesla brings billions dollars forex through exports Third, massive employment, fourth china is learning quickly getting empty land, suddenly cars in production within one year plus agile production techniques.
As a Chinese living in the State for decades, also Elon’s fan, Tesla owner/investor too, Michael, you are 100% right! Everything you mention about China, Chinese, the reason Elon got welcomed how chines negotiate, how Chinese cut conners!!! You are reading my mind! Mind blowing!
You have been away for too long. A lot of those practices have been changed. China has 4 times more STEM graduates every year than the US. This is why China is now the biggest exporter for auto parts n cars.
Interesting conversation. It's curious that, given China's rapid advancements and tendency to cut corners, they have decided to utilize a full sensor suite for autonomous driving. Also, the idea that Elon is trying to 'de-politicize EVs' is suspect at best. Regardless, I'm rooting for made-in-USA as well!
Legacy automakers are not innovaters. The cars they produced 20 years ago are not that different from the cars they produce today. Moving from ICE to Electric is like moving from Analog to Digital. Just look at demise of Kodak during the transition to digital photography. The legacy auto do not have the experience and the corporate DNA to make such a transition.
The Chinese are aware of their shortcoming in thinking in the past and are convinced that they shouldn’t kill the goose that lays the golden egg. Live and let live is symbiosis and that is a lesson that the Chinese have long ago learnt and embraced.
8/8? It has been changed to 10/10. Coincidentally, the date was changed after Xpeng CEO He Xiao Peng test drove the Tesla in California. Did he give Elon some constructive feedback?
China is decades beyond legacy car makers. The biggest thing that catapulted them besides demand is that when Tesla released their patents as open source, when legacy brands ignored them China used them.
@@robertfinck1275 China GAVE Tesla something like $1 billion plus provided half of that as a loan, for Musk to start his factory there. Furthermore, he is said to be the only foreign manufacturer who's been permitted to own his business 100%. All others were required to have a 50% domestic partner. Musk is a slick operator. He must have figured out that the Chinese needed him to spur the domestic entrepreneurs to get going. It looks like both sides have achieved their objectives.
This analysis is 30% based on facts, but 70% is mired in political characterization (a common problem of Western analysts with preset viewpoints), depicting the evil of the Communist Party of China in business operations. Check the data carefully. Previously, there was indeed a 50%:50% joint venture policy. After Tesla came, it was abolished because at that time China had to consider opening up the share ratio. Most of those joint venture partners are also state-owned enterprises. Without exception, these state-owned enterprises have fallen behind in fierce competition. The truly innovative, efficient and top-ranked ones are China's private technology enterprises. The Chinese government only provides guidance for industrial policies, which is no different from what Japan and South Korea did in the past. My first car was VW. I just replaced it with a new energy vehicle of a local brand. For no other reason. After comparing Western brands (I actually have a natural preference for Western brands), it is true that product competitiveness has fallen behind in China. We welcome commercial competition, which will benefit consumers. But if you don't accurately understand your opponents, how can you compete?
I own both a brand new Tesla and BYD. Clearly Tesla has the edge on the software front. But based on what I experienced on the BYD, I think China has already overtaken the US. Maybe the US should accept that and come up with a strategy that benefits Americans. The current strategy doesn't cut it.
just rode Didi (local Uber) in a brand new Buick electric made here in China. it's good. the driver was very happy with it. GM might still hang around here for some more time.
As someone that operated factories in China for 13 years until 2019, how is the demographic collapse and public unrest not being factored in by this Asia expert. And what about turmoil created by the housing Ponzi scheme? That’s before we even get to the semi conductor supply problem and general Chinese corruption that is worse now than ever.
Essentially he did in a round about way. In that their domestic economy took a dive around 2021. Which led to a focus on exports. COVID is obviously wrapped into that, but the issues you raise aren’t emergent and have been having an impact for years. In the end, they are macroscopic issues to be considered as a general state of being with the specific causes of that state being out of scope to the discussion. As they are not related to the actual topic.
The Chinese government screwed up and let a real estate investment bubble get out of hand. They will learn from that, based on how they tend to learn rather than deflect. They will deal with their labor shortage a couple of ways. Lower skilled, labor intensive manufacturing is being moved to other countries. And China is developing the automation/robots that will lower their need for human labor.
What are the reasons that the rest of the world has turned to China for manufacturing? Can these reasons be overcome? If so we can derisk. If not, we just cooperate.
One thing, for sure; they make a mockery of auto designs from legacy. and I'm sure they are trying their best to have the electronics to match, although no one has what Tesla has.
Get over it! The old car companies are going down. This from a retired teamster, Tesla owner and stock owner. Meanwhile 12.5 is a step up on hardware 4.
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Surprised Dunne is not up to date on China... BMW has bought out its Chinese partner and owns its china operation.
The so called "leverage" Dunne is talking is not happening once the business is in operations. That happens when negotiating for setting up the company in a given location. AND, MOST IMPORTANT, company wants to leverage to negotiate for favors (taxes, lands, and other favors). NO need to leverage if a company simply wants to set up its business in China. Be my guest, as long as it complies to the laws (environmental and fire safety...)
Tesla got so much favor from the city of Shanghai... in return to a promise of sales tax contribute and manufacturing localization. The city of Shanghai bent backward and tried very hard to support Tesla. Literally doing the sales promotion... and given it much more than the subsidies any other Chinese EV companies have got.
cheered too fast, Tesla Model Y is made in Shanghai too. They are exported to Europe
China never want to kick out those foreign automakers. Those companies have been too comfortable with those great easy money they made from Chinese customers.
These people on the screen are trying to be politically correct in the US, instead of talking about the truth.
What you want is irrelevant.
If u are losing then do the American way..
Your comment about GM in China just show your bias. Nobody stops GM from selling cars in China, if they cannot improvise their products and as a result, consumers choose other products, how is this China fault? It only shows that Chinese Market is competitive and brutal nothing to do with the country's industrial policy. Ask yourself if GM is selling well worldwide in the past 2 decades? The answer is decidedly No. It's Americans automotive industry problems. Don't blame others for your own shortcoming
👍👍👍 TRUE ‼️ 👌👌👌
Totally agree with you.
Angalo-saxon should stop being hypocrite.
Improvise?
What Chinese automakers are trying to destroy is another Chinese automaker. American car companies are just caught in the crossfire of this brutal and ruthless competition between Chinese automakers, or they end up getting overwhelmed without even knowing why. This logic is similar to how the 100th-ranked Chinese table tennis player can easily defeat the top-ranked American player.
Why is it so hard for this guy to admit that GM is lost in the China market mostly just because the weak competitiveness of its products.
It is so untrue that China tries to kick foreign companies out. True, China needed these companies in China so that they can learn from them. But foreign companies left because China has out innovated them. Some smaller foreign owned factories left because they can no longer compete with higher labor costs. Legacy auto such as Ford, GM, Mitsubishi, etc... closed down because they sat on their butts and enjoyed the "easy $2 billion profit" instead of finding ways to make better products. To be fair, China told the whole world that they are going electric, but NO...... legacy auto didn't even paid attention and here we are today
@@momo_san1980 China goes green because it really has to, to cut pollution n dependency on imported fossil fuels!
@@momo_san1980 Completely agree
Exactly
totally agree
Agreed, think VW was one of the biggest culprits, sold them any old rubbish, and I mean old, because China needed anything they could get. As times changed the Chinese consumer matured and VW just sat on their backsides counting the money. Well times change and now the chickens are coming home to roost.
GM has to exit China not because of politics but because their ICE sales has collapsed with no alternatives available.
they got the Bolt... lmao
@@fatdoi003 yes, But cannot compete. I am afraid Bolt cannot compete with Chinese EVs in most markets. That will be a disaster
No one in Asia buys US cars. Everyone buys Japanese or Korean. Now that Chinese cars are of EV, high quality and low cost, everyone in Asia is thinking of buying Chinese. Asian are pragmatic people; ie get the best value for the buck. Unfortunately US cars were displaced from Asia a few generations ago.
@@lawrencepak1917 American car companies are losing the plot with their cars getting more and more expensive. Most people can’t afford a new car. That’s crazy. If American companies made some good new cars at 10-20k, they would compete globally.
Korea car is as bad quality as USA
I didn’t remember China was raising it as a national security concern when the Western/Japanese brands were and too some degrees are still dominating the Chinese market. Even though the guest is knowledgeable, he is being a somewhat sensationalist. Let’s not forget his livelihood as an automobile industry consultant depends on getting contracts from the automakers. In other words, not in line with average consumers.
Saying china steals the innovation and technology is not right...rather we can say competitive hard working people....
True. China produces 5 million STEM graduates annually, 5 times more than USA. They work 2 times harder, 2 time longer, they are 2 times more efficient.
So China work force is 5x2x2x2 = 40 times more effective than USA. How can they not win?
US, without Tesla, is FAR BEHIND China in tech development for transportation. North America is insufficient market to fund legacy auto, making old school, combustion vehicles.
Not true, without Tesla there likely won't be Chinese EV either. They took what Roadster and Model S to shaped the EV landscape. People don't understand or give Tesla enough credit their influence in China. One of the reasons why China allows Tesla to rightfully own a factory in China outright.
@@nguyep4
Examples?
BYD was founded as a Battery manufacturer in... 1995.
Byd Auto? 2003
First Hybrid? 2008
First BEV? 2009
.....
Catl? Founded 2011.
They were already planning..... While over that period Tesla was being dismissed as irrelevant "at home".
@@rogerstarkey5390 Battery is one of the components of EV. Having that is not enough to make a good EV.
The powertrain, the electronics, the software, etc. Look at the EV after the roadster and Model S.
US has most valuable market even as China has bigger numbers, faster growth, more NEVs.
US legacy forfeited the game.
EV1 team started 30 odd years ago & had prototypes even earlier.
Patent system locked up a lot of knowledge - who did that?
US marketed excess, huge SUVs, not motivated by efficiency.
Extra fries, upsize, upgrade, consume, status.
Seems odd to sat that since we did fund legacy auto for over a hundred years. If you mean the changeover to electric cars, no problem legacy auto will simply go bankrupt.
The laws have changed in China. 100% wholly owned foreign entities is possible. Tesla may be unique in the auto industry but the multinational OEMs are either operating under historical relationships or feel that a tie-up with a government supported company will provide them some opportunity or protection. But wholly owned foreign entities is no longer rare.
I have been in China almost 20 years now. I came over to make tools for GM that would be sent to Mexico and the US for production. The Issue really quick to see was that the Chinese can reverse engineer anything with some help from us. They did not know a lot about the correct machines to make good tools, but all the foreigners getting tools made here taught them or showed them. Now the big advantage here in China is the Chinese companies here's willingness to work the hours to get the job done. And we foreigners should help them do it right. The Issues are like you said. Big profits for GM or Ford or others. But now big loss for those companies. The cars bought today in China are EV's. Gas is about $4 to $6 a gallon and soon to go higher. But Electricity here is quite reasonable. I pay about $50 to $70 a month for my house's electricity. I can charge my EV right in my diveway, as I do not have garage. My house in Texas cost me over $1,000 a month. A majority of the DiDi's (Ubers) here drive Electric Vehicles so the cost is really only their time. The cost to charge the EV is really cheap. In the US, I worked at Chrysler HQ, Ford Milan, Fisher Body Tech Center, and GM Engineering. Bottom Line Foreign Companies came to China to make a buck for their stockholders and themselves. And soon you will pay for that. China is making EV and soon will pass Boeing. Their space and military ventures are good. Believe it.
Tesla investor here, great interview to understand what is going on around the world on EV, very respectful conversation to mold my thoughts on the future, thank you.
It has always surprised me as to how little recognition Tesla gets in the USA.
It almost seems as if the USA wants Tesla to fail.
Tesla should be seen as a national treasure.
The mind boggles.
Those against or wanting Tesla to fail are mostly people who are insecure of its successes.
Corruption and propaganda is powerful.
Fossil Fuel Co. sponsored FUD has created the negative US attitudes.
US doesn’t have another big player in EVs. Their direction and FUD will reduce US made to Tesla and no one else; at least mainstream.
Draw the analogy between the "US" (Gov, Media and as a result public) reaction to both Tesla.... and China.
If you take a step back, it's remarkably similar.
Threatened, confrontational, obstructive.
Essential insights, even for a small Tesla investor like me. Historically, China's huge petroleum imports encouraged the engineers in the Chinese government to go electric, not just in EVs. Maybe USA was discouraged from EVs by people who did not want Americans to switch from gas to electric.
The other driver for China to go EVs was the incredible urban air pollution that was essentially all ICEV caused. China had already moved to cleaner coal plants and located them away from their cities. They had replaced huge numbers of coal boilers and stoves.
In the US big oil and legacy auto can pollute the media with anti-EV FUD. In China the media reports only what the government wants reported, so if the government is pushing EVs....
No, it was Luddites.
@@christopherfry2844 we have plenty of oil, gas and coal.
@@stvdmc2011just don’t use it! It’s not good for the kids 🤔
I bought 2023 model 3 and model Y. Love the gas savings but disappointed with interior after watching Chinese EV on UA-cam.
I own a BYD Atto3 in Australia. I have owned it for greater than 12 months. It has been Faultless with OTA updates. 50K AUD in cost. For the US. It needs to be in Australia we have the minerals in excess and have many partnerships with the US.
Ausgrid is putting EV charger @ power poles..... that'll be a game changer
Finally, someone who really understands what American Auto makers are doing wrong.
He actually confirmed precisely what Sandy Munro said (In slightly less "robust" terms)
It was generally understood what they were doing wrong in 1960, Read Al Capp's Li'l Abner with General BullMoose.
American Auto makers always looking for fat profits and politicians never study where they stands. US just destroy themselves
August 8 had passed, what happened?
BYD just introduced and sold Seal with LiDAR as standard feature, is it a sign that Vision alone is not enough for autonomous driving?
51% local ownership of a company is common throughout Asia, same with freehold property, it’s only in the west that we sell out to the highest bidder for short term gain.
not true, please give examples and source of information. Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia etc is not so.
@@silentmajority9162 I lived malaysia and Thailand for 11 years and I can tell you for fact you cannot own as a foreigner a freehold property you can buy a condo though, and a business has to be 51% owned by a local
@@broadreach3120 I know about the property rule of Thailand but not heard of 51% local ownership for company. I know that Malaysia required a native to be shareholder, but no sure 51% requirement.
@@silentmajority9162 google it mate , I’ve a lot of friends who have their own businesses in Thailand and west Malaysia and they all have 49% ownership of their companies, but there are deals to be made. Beautiful countries and smart people unlike the west they don’t sell out there best assets
@@silentmajority9162 it’s very common in Asia. Google it yourself and you’ll see. Maybe not auto companies. But investment is restricted in a different way. Foreign ownership of a major media company in the US is also restricted.
The problem for US is lacking behind in EVs, is that Why US is always thinking US is leading in technology while China is more successful in commercializing. According to ASPI report In 44 critical tech, China is leading in 37 while US is in 7 only!
I hate to admit it but the Chinese have a more successful form of government. Autocratic regulated capitalism. Lots of intense competition, but directed by government who can focus on long term goals. In US, we have a very indecisive and very corrupted government that is inherently in conflict and not long term focused. The US has human rights and China doesn't. This makes the US a better place to live. When people get to decide what they want, they want luxuries and rights. They don't want to be told what to do. They don't care so much about next generations. Fine. But in terms of technology and GDP and military capabilities, we are going to fall behind China. For example, it took decades and millions of dollars spent in court and lobbying (bribes) and advertising to ban one-use plastic bags which are bad for the environment. Ultimately, that failed 100%. In fact it got worse as people now have to pay for heavy-duty single-use plastic bags, so more plastic is being produced and dumped than before. Why? Because people are too lazy to use canvas bags. Too "inconvenient" to have to bring empty bags in from car and they refuse to be forced to do so. But China banned them in one day by autocratic decree. Chinese government studied the energy and automotive industries and decided solar panels and EVs are better than ICE, so they just directed industry to go there. China took over and now dominates both industries. US government may decide solar and EVs are better, but when next President is Republican, all that initiative is rolled back. Oil and gas industry tells the government what to do, decides who will be president with campaign donations. In a democracy, everyone argues to see who convinces the people what to do, but many people are stupid and corporations are too powerful, so it is very difficult to get anything done. The only reason the US spent any money at all going to space and the moon was for political reasons to compete with Russia. As soon as Russia faltered, the US dropped practically the entire space effort for 50 years and is only now thinking of getting back because the Chinese are doing it. China loves Elon because he is smart and looks to the future and makes it happen. But US thinks Elon is bad, too rich, forces them to change, harms legacy corporations, etc. US people have become too lazy, too complacent, feel they are best in world, and refuse to acknowledge the world is changing. Many Americans actually think we can return to greatness by moving backward!
It is perfectly reasonable to wish for a president and a leadership in America which stands to praise and express appreciation for Tesla and for having Tesla at home.🇺🇸🚘🇺🇸
UNLESS your President (Past, present and future) "operates" in a system based on.... "Incentive Based Prioritisation of Policy and Objectives"?
If that were the case, you might witness a similar reaction to that we see today?
Your presidents are too busy in trying to stop others' progress and destroy the competitors than solving the internal issue and reflect on own short-comings.
American politician are too busy with election and personal agenda that they have no time for work.
one more thing: traditional legency car makers are not only behind in evs. more importantly, they completly ignored the opportunity in big battery long range hybrid cars. in the end, its not a competition in whos car is more green, its who make the better cars that more markets around the world like and can afford interms of not only money but also infrastructure. not all countries have the charging network we have in US and China. Hybrid will very likely to be the better option. it gives you ev experience (space, quietness, smart cabin system, accerlations etc.) and at the same time the option to use gas when you cant charge your car.
It's interesting that after the Cold War, researchers analysed the collapse of the USSR. One key reason identified was that while the USSR was highly advanced in science and technology, the U.S. excelled at commercialising innovations, sometimes even those originating from the USSR. At the time, being able to successfully commercialise technology was a significant advantage for a country to prove their politic system was better than the other.
It’s safety & cost per mile. Safety is super important.
Chinese are hardworking, smart, has a plan, and deserves it. Fairplay.
they also steal hundreds of billions of ip every year. fairplay? not!
USA is too busy playing politic and their businesses pay too much in political lobbying.
Did first drive with 12.4.3 today. Overall it's better than 12.3.6. I did have one intervention that would have resulted in an accident. It was a hour long drive other than that 1 very real intervention it did amazing.
Video should hit channel i about an hour or so.
It learns.
If everyone had 1 intervention a year that would have resulted in an accident that would infer human driving is substantially safer than full autonomy at that intervention rate. The rate of intervention needs to be something like once in 20 years. Then the rate of accidents might be better than humans. Most people I know either have no accidents in many years or on average once in 15-20 years. Insurance companies would be broke if accidents were everyone once a year.
Our US government leadership is in such a sad state of affairs. The advisors don’t do their jobs any better than the rest of the blood suckers riding on the private sectors backs. 😅So sad how the administration doesn’t support Elon is a better way. 😅
As i understand, China has a far higher concentration of engineers and scientists throughout Government... go figure. (Who'd think that a logical mind would be useful?)
That's not true, Tesla is the only way we can afford. The people in D.C. are doing their jobs, its just not the jobs you want them to do. Change is bad, I'm afraid of change, I actually might have to go to work.
Won’t be any different with the Trump administration. If anything, probably worse. As a Tesla investor, I’m still able to be objective and know that Elon/Tesla is benefiting hugely from the IRA. Without price subsidies for EVs, Tesla’s profit margin now would be much worse. Don’t hear Elon complaining about the IRA subsidy.
I worked at Fisher Body in 1984. The federal government broke up GM then as they were to profitable. The made the Car Divisions and closed Fisher Body and sent the engineers to the 4 winds. I wonder if you know the History of what happened at GM.
@@Raymond-h1s crazy how they can do that in the land of opportunity! Good luck 👍
China used to like everything American, including cars... But their politicians and media are making them really hard to like. Not surprised that lots of countries including China are boycotting American products.
Tesla made a mistake when it stopped doing batt swap. China's Nio has it now 52 million batt swaps as of this week.
One thing was not pointed about the challenges for US auto industry to develop competitive EVs is that the incumbent supply chains (gasoline, machining, auto parts, etc) would not support this transition. Beside, US would not have enough electricity capacity to support millions of charging stations. Such fundamental changes can not be led a private industry.
I watched Michael's previous interview video, where he said that Chinese car companies cannot compete with Japanese car companies. But Michael's statement today is different every time. The rules of the game are changing
As a Tesla investor and someone who lives in Asia, it is great to finally see in-depth insight into the Tesla’s main adversaries which are the China automakers. Make no mistake China is driven, very smart and huge. No fault of their own as you mentioned Farzad, most channels on YT keep comparing Tesla to US and European carmakers and stating how well Elon Musk is doing against these western legacy automakers. No! My worry has been China and Michael Dunne has hit the nail on the head. My biggest concern is technology transfer and once China understands everything Tesla has especially in software and FSD it nudges Tesla out. It’s great that Elon has an excellent relationship with China but it’s one that works while there is a mutual benefit. Musk has a big brain and I know he’s thought this out and has a plan. I am an optimistic by nature ☺️ But this is my main concern for Tesla’s future in next 5-10 years.
China knows about Tesla software. What China has yet to do, is put millions of cars with cameras and computers on the road to collect the data necessary for AI FSD. Chinese companies can hand code the basics of self-driving. But we can see that solution is limited, expensive, and requires remote backup drivers to deal with lots of encountered problems.
I doubt that China will be able to match Tesla in FSD any time soon...
the FSD is overhyped, I have yet to see a Tesla without a driver moving on the roads. I don't think the current crop of FSD can cut it for level 4 or 5 autonomy.
@@passby8070
Of course you haven't seen a Tesla on the road without a driver. The system is not yet complete. But here's the thing. You don't know as much about Tesla FSD as you should.
Guys, many cities in China have already commercialising FSD eg.. taxi in a restrict area for now. Of course, there will be continuous improvement on it. China is also commercialising flying taxi (drone) in couple areas as well.
😯 Michael Dunne hits on all points!
@@seanixt No, Michael conveniently left out a lot of points. He dare not venture into speaking the inconvenient truths. He's implying that it's all China's faults.
Good conversation, but I’d caution against thinking that car manufacturing being lost to China is a national security issue. China has been the factory for the world (for MANY things, not just cars) for decades. If that’s the case, losing manufacturing competitiveness to China should have been a national security issue ages ago, not just now because of cars/EVs.
China IS NOT a "Risk to US National Security".
.
The US ATTITUDE to China (and frankly MANY other countries) is the biggest risk..... To the US.
.
REDEFINE "NATIONAL SECURITY" In "21st Century terms"
.
Stop chewing your own foot off.
Legacy auto makers became lazy. They could have built a cheap ev, they chose not to.
i hate to use the word cheap..... i'd prefer affordable
@@fatdoi003 Ok, their greed will be their undoing. The sad thing is this has happened before first with Japan and then with South Korea. The stupidity bugs me, they're risking their entire existence by hanging on to yesterday.
@@paulkelly9250 because they'll always have their big daddy the u.s gov't to either bail them out of put tariffs on their competitors or both.... then they make donations to political parties, shaft the unions and their workers go to rallies and scream USA USA.... and buy merch that's made in china.....
They couldn’t with UAW.
One other thing. To make sense of a full-scale shift from ICE to EV, it will be essential that the capacity to generate MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GREEN ENERGY must be in place. The Chinese figured that out from the get go and doubled down on nuclear energy. Have American leaders even thought about it?
@@folag they doubled down on Solar and battery storage, not nuclear. Not against nuclear, but let's be clear about the energy sector leading the way
Sandy called it years ago.
Realistic Robotaxi Plan for Tesla
1. Tesla can use FSD to deliver a car to the customer:
Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology can autonomously deliver vehicles to customers' locations, providing a convenient and efficient service.
2. Let customers use their own insurance to drive the car as if they were rental cars:
Customers can drive the delivered car using their personal insurance, similar to how traditional rental cars operate.
Advantages:
1. Saving the insurance fee:
By allowing customers to use their own insurance, Tesla can eliminate the additional insurance costs typically associated with rental or ride-sharing services.
2. Appealing to a broader range of customers:
Customers who do not fully trust FSD technology can still use the robotaxi service by driving the cars themselves. This flexibility makes the service more attractive to a wider audience, including those who prefer traditional driving.
Sandy Munro says if you think imaginatively or have new ideas at a legacy OEM you can’t move up the corporate ladder.
Such great insights. Love 8 8!
But… almost skipped this one due to title.
This might help, if you put a title like this.
Take the first 3-5 sentences and say what is in the title. Or even like an introduction video describing what the title says.
Those clickable titles are getting pretty annoying.
Just watch one video from Tom Nash. He’s doing a great job
UA-cam algorithm. I’m afraid he has to as otherwise the number of viewers is far smaller.
Wow, there were some great insights from Michael! This minute here is golden: 13:15. Conclusion is also important: 35:14
Agreed.
Except for conclusion; in US best for govt to "get out of the way".
Culture is in flux, in dispute, obsessed by history, hedonism or (him/her-)self.
This is why Texas is good home to Tesla - given toxic woke culture / Trump nonsense.
Post-nationalism.
** acknowledging that California drives tech & green tech, but gone to mush.
But Hans (worryingly "as usual") defines it in terms of a "War which China is winning" rather than either "Incompetence of US Generals (of industry)" or an opportunity to pursue "Peace".
.
Analogy
You're "A Painter of floors"
.
If you're painted into a corner by your own actions, blaming someone who started in another corner and worked *towards* a door is no excuse.
THEY will move to the next room while you wait for the paint to dry.
If those smart people in GM were really smart I doubt they would stay in GM
GM spent too much money lobbying politician to go against EV, they don't have enough to spend on R&D.
Don’t mention Baidu. Actually, HUAWEI is leading in the self-driving technology. And HUAWEI is looking forward to the competition with Tesla when its FSD is landed in China
Xpang has the best too
@@remix-yy1hs No. xPeng is far behind Huawei.
Quality conversation, you guys are nailing it! Thanks!
I watch all of your videos, and this was the best ever.
Phenomenal interview!
Delicious
Information absorbed
Very vaulable podcast! Thansk Farzad
Many foreign brands are making money in chinese market. As long as you're competitive, you can do well In the chinese market. Toyota And walls wagon are still selling very well in china。
Ignoramuses Tesla is not about money it was about getting competition. The money was the side effect.
Partly true, the rest is getting the world to a sustainable economy while saving the planet.
30 years ago I had a lab partner who opened my eyes to Chinese methods he was in a business selling vegetables to China. He had to have a Chinese partner who owned 51% of the business. If he ever became unneeded by the Chinese his customers would fadeaway and a similar business would open across the street.
You think it's unfair? How about 100% tariffs on the product you produced? Oops it's the United States 😂
Individual, family, corporation, community, society and country always decay from within, not from outside enemies!
Awesome video and important to understanding the competition we face.
Excellent content. Great watch
Michel Dunne was amazing I love the last comment. China cuts corners but Tesla doesn't. Nice.
You don't get it. When China to decide to enter the high value arena, they will take care of all the small details. It is about cost and sale.
Tesla can survive only because of China and Shanghai factory.
i think the answer is there is to much influence from big oil & gas. If there wasn't so much push from them then maybe the government in the states would be able to go full tilt into electrification etc.
GM would have gone bankruptcy 20 years ago without Chinese market. GM should be grateful and remember say thank you with a bow before they leave.
Oh god, it swings from wildly optimistic one day to MASSIVE RISK headline the next. These channels are no different to the 24 hr legacy news channels.
Good thing the content backs up the title :)
Regardless of how optimistic the outlook of anything is, there is always a "Biggest Risk". Even if the risk is relatively small compared to other companies.
We are living in times of dramatic change. Potential huge rewards or peril and the difference achieving either outcome relies on almost no safety buffer🙄
This is why Farzy and producer wife are so valuable. They give us info from all angles, so we can make informed decisions based on the pluses and minuses.
We're in a based bubble.
Best wishes to P.W., Clive and coffee cup man
Yes. It's interesting to see the "New Media" rapidly adopting the same tactics as the "MSM". We are fucked....
Dude. You have incredible interviews with great discussions, there's no need for titles like this. You can say "new interview with Michael dunne/discussing global EV landscape future etc." It would be a lot more accurate
Give me a better title.
@@farzyness Tesla’s Challenges or Tesla’s Competitive Disadvantage
@whywonder1895
Or "The legion of tesla KILLERS!!!"
@@farzyness There's no other title better than yours
@@farzyness He just did...
Michael Dunn got it right👌. 8:45 to 10:45 Sums it all👍👍. The title is spot on👈❤️👍
There are 53 Chinese car brands! Let that sink in folks
SUPER intereseting insights from behind the Great Wall. Great show!!
Outstanding content Farzad. Michael is a unique authoritative source with a real global view. Surprised though that you didn't get into the impossibility of GM and Ford being competitive with the UAW's current labor contract. In the end, it doesn't matter as they will be non-factors in tomorrow's auto industry.
Didn’t Jim Farley say as much?
Mary would never admit it, paid shrill.
@@iandavies4853 A shrill shill so to speak.
Wow! Michael Dunne. Respect!! Great insights!!!
West is crippled by the regulatory & quality control that originally gave them worldwide notoriety. Import Tarrifs are the equivalent of a handicap in golf. Hopefully to allow continued long tern fair play. Its inevitable that some won't survive with so many new competitors.
The recent decades of exploitation of China's auto market (Opium War II) is over. China is going global... and shutting its doors to western autos. Profits sucked out of China by legacy auto are finished. Now, autonomous driving is second wave, forming as China auto exports ramp up. One possible future is PEAK AUTO -- individual ownership of (multiple) autos having run its course and TAAS starts taking a growing share of miles traveled.
I almost agree, except that China is not "shutting its doors"
China had said "let us visit you, we can ALL benefit" but USA (just politicians?) is too proud/ politically biased/ shortsighted/ insular/ scared to accept the opportunity.
.
The problem? That's essentially choosing to be OUT of the new game (Transition)
.
Agree re "Peak auto", but extend that further to "Peak EV'.
@@rogerstarkey5390 China is XI not to be trusted !
Michael must have some "bad" experience in China. He seems to enjoy his sour grapes😂😂😂
Just for interest 8/8/2024 actually numerologically reduces to 8 . 8 . 8 ( 2024 = 2 + 0 + 2 + 4 = 8 )
3 identical numbers are also called Angel Numbers
Great content here, kudos. Investors need to watch this
Hans (at 39.37)?! The IRA is equally beneficial to GM, Stellantis, and Ford, not just Tesla. You seem to be suggesting otherwise. The failure to fully exploit the IRA lies ENTIRELY with the OEMs.
Excellent point though about the overlap of the emerging/critical tech in BEVs with that needed for modern warfare.
The IRA was *designed* to provide BENEFIT to the Legacy makers OVER Tesla.
.
TESLA couldn't be "capitalised" over because they held ALL the cards.
By the IRA allowing companies to benefit from building hybrids rather than only EVs GM, etc. have probably been hurt. It's given them a safe space in which to diddle while pure EV companies increase their lead.
The Big 3 can not compete in China and, honestly, not in North America for EVs. The labor union just forced a crazy contract, and any quality EV will cost way too much to gain any significant market share. Tesla's golden goose is the software AI and finding a way to have most EV companies put their software into their vehicles. The death of the American Auto Union and American auto workers are less than 8 years away. Once robotic car automation eliminates human workers in a 10 to 1 ratio, then and only then can any company like Ford or GM come up with anything that will be kind of cost-effective.
less than 3-5 years
I think this is one of the most insightful and informative podcasts I’ve seen lately. It nails the issue and explains the solution ❤
For Detroit (and btw Germany) it is already too late. But there is still a chance if the US administration starts supporting and aligning with Tesla. Tariffs (and subsidies to imo) are not a solution. Fertilize the capitalistic environment and help developing the required infrastructure.
China gave Tesla 100 % ownership. Tesla gave china all it's crucial patents. This enabled instant EV industry.
Secondly Tesla brings billions dollars forex through exports
Third, massive employment, fourth china is learning quickly getting empty land, suddenly cars in production within one year plus agile production techniques.
"Tesla gave China all its crucial patents" - Citations? Sources? Or is it just a made-up statement plucked out of thin air?!
As a Chinese living in the State for decades, also Elon’s fan, Tesla owner/investor too, Michael, you are 100% right! Everything you mention about China, Chinese, the reason Elon got welcomed how chines negotiate, how Chinese cut conners!!! You are reading my mind! Mind blowing!
You have been away for too long. A lot of those practices have been changed. China has 4 times more STEM graduates every year than the US. This is why China is now the biggest exporter for auto parts n cars.
well.... that's why Elon took Tesla's Chinese engineers to his u.s gigafactory to 'cut corners'....
Interesting conversation. It's curious that, given China's rapid advancements and tendency to cut corners, they have decided to utilize a full sensor suite for autonomous driving. Also, the idea that Elon is trying to 'de-politicize EVs' is suspect at best. Regardless, I'm rooting for made-in-USA as well!
Legacy automakers are not innovaters. The cars they produced 20 years ago are not that different from the cars they produce today.
Moving from ICE to Electric is like moving from Analog to Digital. Just look at demise of Kodak during the transition to digital photography. The legacy auto do not have the experience and the corporate DNA to make such a transition.
Excellent discussion - very informative.
The Chinese are aware of their shortcoming in thinking in the past and are convinced that they shouldn’t kill the goose that lays the golden egg. Live and let live is symbiosis and that is a lesson that the Chinese have long ago learnt and embraced.
One of your best shows! Hopefully legacy auto is listening.
How many roof tops do we need to shout from?!? The WHOLE game is changing! Learn the new rules.
Global, System Wide, Societal Disruption.
The whole Ballgame
Everything
8/8? It has been changed to 10/10.
Coincidentally, the date was changed after Xpeng CEO He Xiao Peng test drove the Tesla in California. Did he give Elon some constructive feedback?
excellent question as to battery dominance by China in the context of Military applications for bigger vehicles
You're looking at "Chinese dominance" from a typically "US perspective"
China is decades beyond legacy car makers. The biggest thing that catapulted them besides demand is that when Tesla released their patents as open source, when legacy brands ignored them China used them.
@@robertfinck1275 China GAVE Tesla something like $1 billion plus provided half of that as a loan, for Musk to start his factory there. Furthermore, he is said to be the only foreign manufacturer who's been permitted to own his business 100%. All others were required to have a 50% domestic partner. Musk is a slick operator. He must have figured out that the Chinese needed him to spur the domestic entrepreneurs to get going. It looks like both sides have achieved their objectives.
@@folag definitely. Both Tesla and BYD are laughing all the way to the bank.
This analysis is 30% based on facts, but 70% is mired in political characterization (a common problem of Western analysts with preset viewpoints), depicting the evil of the Communist Party of China in business operations. Check the data carefully. Previously, there was indeed a 50%:50% joint venture policy. After Tesla came, it was abolished because at that time China had to consider opening up the share ratio. Most of those joint venture partners are also state-owned enterprises. Without exception, these state-owned enterprises have fallen behind in fierce competition. The truly innovative, efficient and top-ranked ones are China's private technology enterprises. The Chinese government only provides guidance for industrial policies, which is no different from what Japan and South Korea did in the past. My first car was VW. I just replaced it with a new energy vehicle of a local brand. For no other reason. After comparing Western brands (I actually have a natural preference for Western brands), it is true that product competitiveness has fallen behind in China. We welcome commercial competition, which will benefit consumers. But if you don't accurately understand your opponents, how can you compete?
I own both a brand new Tesla and BYD. Clearly Tesla has the edge on the software front. But based on what I experienced on the BYD, I think China has already overtaken the US. Maybe the US should accept that and come up with a strategy that benefits Americans. The current strategy doesn't cut it.
8/8/2024 - even 2024 (2+0+2+4 = 8)
nice! 🔥
Nice
Not to Terrence howard
Great guest and convo. Thx!!
The 50's by David Halberstam points out that GM moved to design changes over engineering improvements as it spures sales 4x
just rode Didi (local Uber) in a brand new Buick electric made here in China. it's good. the driver was very happy with it. GM might still hang around here for some more time.
As someone that operated factories in China for 13 years until 2019, how is the demographic collapse and public unrest not being factored in by this Asia expert. And what about turmoil created by the housing Ponzi scheme? That’s before we even get to the semi conductor supply problem and general Chinese corruption that is worse now than ever.
@@stopdropnroll that's because he's a consultant giving reasons why to invest in China, not reasons why not to, IMHO, he's just playing the game
Are you talking about China or USA?
Essentially he did in a round about way. In that their domestic economy took a dive around 2021. Which led to a focus on exports. COVID is obviously wrapped into that, but the issues you raise aren’t emergent and have been having an impact for years. In the end, they are macroscopic issues to be considered as a general state of being with the specific causes of that state being out of scope to the discussion. As they are not related to the actual topic.
Its in their dna after all
The Chinese government screwed up and let a real estate investment bubble get out of hand. They will learn from that, based on how they tend to learn rather than deflect.
They will deal with their labor shortage a couple of ways. Lower skilled, labor intensive manufacturing is being moved to other countries. And China is developing the automation/robots that will lower their need for human labor.
What are the reasons that the rest of the world has turned to China for manufacturing? Can these reasons be overcome? If so we can derisk. If not, we just cooperate.
Biggest advances the US can make are eliminating the need for as many cars and electrifying trucking.
One thing, for sure; they make a mockery of auto designs from legacy. and I'm sure they are trying their best to have the electronics to match, although no one has what Tesla has.
US doesn’t have another big player in EVs. Their direction and FUD will reduce US made to Tesla and no one else; at least mainstream.
Chinese company is far more faster than Tesla.
Actually a great example of an economy driven by innovation and change.
Great analogy with the Manhattan project, also in terms of urgency. Thanks for this informative podcast guys!
Get over it! The old car companies are going down. This from a retired teamster, Tesla owner and stock owner.
Meanwhile 12.5 is a step up on hardware 4.