For anyone wondering where Thor and I are at or if there was any issue with this discussion. The way I see this talk is two damn good professionals sharing expertise and helping each other reach conclusions in real time. I am a marketing professional but I don't practice an exact science. I see Thor's perspective and his mindset is absolutely correct to wait and see tangible developments in his data before making decisions about his business - or saying with certainty that something is going on to his community. Everyone should take all information available and develop their own conclusions based on a combination of their own data, experience, and outside expertise - and that is exactly what Thor is doing. We are so polarized by media and drama that it's impossible for many to believe that two people with differing viewpoints can have a reasonable conversation and grow from it. I don't see this as a "Thor or Devin is right or wrong" issue. Thor and I are on opposite sides of the industry and in a rare position where we don't have anything to gain from each other, so this produced a genuine conversation. I'm on the same team as Thor and I think we're both driven to help the media and gaming landscape improve and want to see that happen. I'm honored Thor came to talk and he's a major force in improving the industry. Above all I hope people enjoy the discussion.
so you have verifiable information, but wont release it, THAT is stupid command someone to speak a certain way using streamer guilt, yours fuckin weird
its a bit daft to argue this hard over wanting people to use your reference point for something as interconnected as ad revenue. It's akin to measuring sealevel and stating climate change isnt real. It might be in the future, but blah blah blah. As a professional, I would expect little bumbs like this not to become the focus of the argument. It's arguing semantics at that point.
Wish I would have caught this live! Do you think that political spending further convolutes the conversation? So much money dried up in the last 2 weeks AND both campaigns were spending more on ads on Twitch.
@@newchannel2458 no, that's the tard way of using this word. Just use instead you aren't saving time. You just seem like a dbag:P I have a hard time accepting english speakers to use french words when they probably talk shit about the french :P It's pronounced. O- lee euh. But english doesn't have the proper vowels to do the lieu sound. "Au lieu"
Not on every subject, on a subject that they only have limited knowledge and understanding about the thing they are talking about. And to be fair, everyone is doing that. They don't have a smoking gun for nothing. If there are people that their revenue is going down, there are plausible explanations about that that doesn't fit the hypothesis presented. There's the Occam's razor.
Devin is like a scientist calculating a meteor's trajectory, double-checking with other experts (ad buyers) to confirm the math. Thor is a citizen in the impact zone who says, "I don't see a meteor, and maybe it'll burn up before hitting us." Both could be right-maybe the math is off, or the meteor dissolves harmlessly. But the danger lies in ignoring expert warnings and relying solely on personal observations (data).
From my understanding, his position is straightforward: perhaps something significant will happen, but for now, nothing has changed yet. And that "yet" is crucial. To be honest, he approached the discussion like a scientist, analyzing data to determine whether advertisers leaving the platform have had any measurable impact. According to his data, there hasn’t been any impact, YET. He’s not denying that things are evolving. He’s simply presenting numbers that show the impact has been negligible so far. Of course, we might see changes sooner rather than later, but who knows? At this point, it’s all speculation. You can hear opinions from multiple experts, but in the end, they’re still opinions. There's nothing more reliable than data to support a claim. As of now, no data suggests that streamers are losing a significant amount of money. That may change in the future, but again, who knows?
@@moitp2 this is incorrect, Pirate is saying the data doesn’t show an impact and Devin is telling him it’s impossible to see that impact at this moment because data doesn’t work in real time. Pirate software is intentionally using a red herring for engagement and to use it as a ‘gotcha’. The data may not show the impact right now as data works in the past but Devin is trying to tell him the data source itself has now completely changed (the advertising) and that Pirate is intentionally baiting engagement with saying there is no issue at all. There is an issue, it may not cause trouble but when there’s no money coming to Twitch, it will cause trouble, as we’ve seen previously. Pirate even admits there may not be but he refuses to change his statements as he knows it creates this spotlight on him. Remember: Pirate says to advertise yourself and get your brand out there by any means necessary.
@@chavo4207 "by any means necessary" is that an exact quote? sounds like that's what you feel he is saying. it implies he condones anything (including illegal or unethical actions) to spread your brand. i dont feel he would get away with spreading a message like that.
You realize Thor doesn't have access to any of that trajectory data right? He's not ignoring experts he's just pointing out that streamer data doesn't suggest anything wrong and other streamers saying otherwise is stupid.
Piratesoftware’s logic is frustrating. Like the news could announce that there a hurricane coming but since it’s dry outside his house right now, there’s no need to worry.
I agree but what it seems to come down to is a lack of information from Twitch itself. Thor's burrito graph shows he had to spend time to derive as much analytics as possible from the information he did get. The other additional thing is that Twitch is now starting to use tags (which let's face it is a lousy system, it relies on people being honest and not using them to meme), incorporating a trained AI model into the system would be much more effective with regards to demonitization, similar to UA-cam's AI for demonitization. It looks for those things that equate to a condition that is not advertiser friendly or something that violates copyright (Content ID system)
hes not as smart as he thinks he is, and ive seen his code its average. 10 minutes in and thor says "theres no evidence of anything changing, just that it might change." people making moves around this issue prove things are already changing, it was just weak
Thor's argument brings back memories to getting my degree in mathematics. "A set X is an open set, if and only if, for any element x in X, there exists a neighborhood around x, such that the neighborhood is a proper subset of X." Thor: The empty set is an open set. Since the empty set has no elements, the initial condition of an element existing is false, and thus the statement is vacuously true. Yeah I mean. Yes. Technically you're correct. But this is not useful. As the most hyperbolic example possible: Prime numbers are numbers that are only divisible by 1 and itself. Can you give me an example of something that isn't a prime number? Yes. A cat is not a prime number. - Totally, 100% true statement.
So, what would be a useful conclusion? The only conclusion is that we have not enough evidence to reach a conclusion. And that argument, on itself, meets the most stringent academic setting, but it doesn't satisfy the public, because the public wants guarantees that no one can offer. Instead, the public must be patient and see.
@@Braiam That depends on your definition of "evidence". An issue with Thor's analysis, even in that strict logical setting, is that his definition for "evidence" was wholly bad. It is objectively bad, frankly. He only allowed hard data to be considered evidence, when he had someone that literally buys and sells ads, telling him that people are pausing their purchases. If you extend Thor's logic, it implies the following. "Your boss tells you in writing, that for every hour you work, you will not receive any money. He doesn't have the money, and you're effectively being laid off. You decide that you need physical evidence of non-payment, to truly believe that your income will drop to $0. That data shows a different story, that you actually will be getting paid. So you wait 2 weeks to receive that paycheck, to verify the statement from your boss, telling you that you're not going to receive any compensation for working."
Its clopen bro ... chill... I'm a real mathematician here to tell u to chillax. The { } is clopen Also fun fact: the compliment of empty set is the whole real line (or whatever space u be using) ... and that is ALSO clopen. So bro... u are just seeing things all wrong. Wait what is this argument about again? Also thor uses a bass boost for voice. He is a sperg Also fun fact: the rationals are a countable union of closed sets The irrationals are the compliment of the above set.... a countable intersection of open sets. Try to picture those sets in ur head. I can. But that's cause I'm amazing Ok fine.... if u wanna visualize f sigma and g delta sets... look up Thomae's function Last fact .... "chillax" is two words crammed together... just like "clopen"
@@ralphinoful "when he had someone that literally buys and sells ads, telling him that people are pausing their purchases" anecdotes are called anecdotes for something. Heck, in the pyramid of evidence, expert opinion is at the bottom. And if expert opinion is easily dismissiable by contradicting data, then it should be.
@@Braiam If you owned a significant amount of money in Tesla, and someone who works at Charles Schwab told you that he had evidence that Elon Musk was a cross-dresser and that multiple journalists were going to release the story in two weeks, what would you do? It's just anecdotal, and they could be wrong. As a matter of fact you're sure they're wrong. Tesla stock isn't changing outside of norms and YOU'VE never seen the evidence first-hand. But in reality, on the off chance the anecdote is correct, it is a serious problem that could've been avoided. All this analogy to say, anecdotes can not be heavily valid evidence, but sometimes they can be. Depends on the context.
It's like Thor and Devin are in a room and someone yelled grenade. Devin sees the grenade and ran for cover. Thor see the grenade and said I'll wait to see if it will explode.
Devin: “I sell the ads to Twitch, they’re pulling out and have told me that directly” Pirate: “My dashboard hasn’t changed so that’s not true” I would have ended the conversation there lol
Did you listen to him? You are all acting like all of this WILL happen, as if NOTHING will be done on Twitch's part or Amazons part. The adpocalypse would happen for sure, where advertisers pull out. BUT only if Twitch does NOT pull new advertisers IN, or convince ADL of doing something else, OR do something that will change the mind of ADL. Yea, this WILL happen if Twitch goes 'hand's-up' and does NOTHING. But you really gotta be stupid to think that they won't do anything.
@@HH-le1vi Well, kinda; he said there COULD be one soon. Problems is between Data projection and evidence, right? There exist no public data that would project an adpocalypse. On the other hand, there's evidence supporting that one MIGHT happen, which is still speculation at this point. Sure evidence points towards it, but without more, it's impossible to say for sure.
@@HH-le1vi I’ll agree to that but Pirate also would not change his ‘factual’ statement, at all. Devin even attempted to meet him half way by asking for an extra footnote of clarity attached to that, he absolutely refused because he knows what he’s saying isn’t actually a statement of fact.
@@nicki6355 an expert opinion can be used as evidence itself in some capacity and with the backing of the article, I’d say that expert opinion is thus reinforced with Devin. To be fair though, I’m a bit biased towards Devin, I find him very informative and entertaining so that could be a factor lol
I mean this is the guy who smugly both sidesed the war in Ukraine and then said both sides are bad because the war might negatively affect the tech field.
@@paegr Ah yes you hack powerplants, win awards at defcon, work at several games studio's for over a decade, and make games from being a nepo baby. Very sound logic. Actual troll. Edit: This is all easy to find and prove, saying there's sources disproving it is insane behavior and you clearly did not research anything, stop lying. A quick 1 minute google search will help you stumble upon him showing up in credits of several games, as well as group photo's of him at defcon, and another quick google search will find you the awards he was given for winning at defcon. And Argy, stop lying about your non-existent "sources", freak.
@@Lorelath None of that actually happened. It takes a few seconds to find sources for my claim and a few hours at most to read those sources. Anyone reading this is free to do it. I don't care about any of these people, or you, or winning an argument. I just think it's funny when liars are exposed.
@@ronmexico7256 I think Thor in some areas is really smart like when he talks about hacking and all the work he's done in that space. But I think maybe after blowing up he's developed a bit of an ego because things like this come up and he speaks with such confidence about things it's clear he has very little understanding.
The bomb example was the best way to explain it. After that the conversation was done. The affect has already happened, the event is already happening. You’re just waiting for the fallout. This is like him saying the stars still exist as he can see the light. Time delayed effects do not mean somethings not already happened.
I don’t quite understand Thor’s logic. Devin establishes that there’s a delay between advertisers pulling funding and the impact. If you wait for the strike, then it’s too late. I get not freaking out too early, but it’s almost worst to be blind and reactionary only when shit hits the fan. Devin didn't just see the bomb... he was in the room with the people who launched the bomb.
They're only speaking to their own experiences, neither are authoritive. Thor would be effectively lying if he parroted unverified information as fact.
Hes made a whole carreer about being confident about everything he says, i think its momentum at this point. Instead of giving his opinion, wich isnt a crazy one, and then accepting that he might be wrong, hes full throatedly confident from the get go because thats what hes used to
In what sense is Thor blind to the situation? He acknowledges the chance of this happening in the future hence the always be on multiple platforms etc. but you can't know if it will happen or not based on current data.
@@emptylog933 It is not lying to say "It seems likely advertisers could pull out but still a chance they wont" that is not a lie, and that is what someone like Devin is saying. Just like a prediction can't be a lie, or else all weather forecasts are "lies".
Yeah if I wasn't cooking with this video in the background I definitely would have clicked out early. The video is really good after that conversation ended.
This 2 1/2 hours boils down to Thor not trusting Devin's take that twitch is in the early stages of an adpocalypse. Add to that Thor posting on twitter, there is NO adpocalypse just trust me bro. Devin is speaking about advertisers moving away from twitch as a whole while Thor is speaking about individual streamers not losing advertising. Both of these things can certainly be true. Devin is suggesting a proactive approach to what he perceives to be an inevitable outcome while Thor suggests a passive approach. I fully agree with Devin when he says that Thor should probably be more clear in that he has no experienced a loss of advertising to his personal channel or the handful of individual channels he's looked at.
-i have first hand knowledge of a declaration of war against us and we have satelite photos of the enemy military base getting ready to attack - i dont see any soldiers in front of me, we are clearly not at war...🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
that is just not true, nobody has "satellite photos" of advertisers puling out that would be the hard evidence thor is asking for and devin SIMPLY CANNOT PROVIDE.
This entire thought process can be disprove by the Soviet union and the US cold war. Both sides were ready and we kept saying it was going to happen, but nothing did. Even the Submarine who had data saying they had a explosion like event could not definitively prove it was a nuke and decided not to fire. If you have not watched the movie War Games, you should.
Nobody should make life changing decisions and repeat someone else propaganda just because the fucking ADL and some shit for brains journalists have some anonymous sources about how much trouble you're in. The hand wringing and the self delusion over this scenario is crazy. Everyone has made up their minds, and will come up with a million different reasons for why Thor isn't saying what they want him to say. You'd have to be a little bitch to capitulate and jump onto the thought bandwagon like a sheep. Nothing he said was wrong and he doesn't want to cry and ring the alarm bells over hearsay.
Pirate Software's real skill is his ability to sell and market himself as an expert. The more you look into his claims of hacking expertise and gave dev experience, the more it all falls apart. He was infamous in the past for his problematic behaviour in Second Life and EVE online, and tries to separate himself from his previous identity as Maldavius Figtree for this reason.
You can hear the whistling of the bomb falling. You look up. You see the plane making an exit. You see the bomb falling. Camera pans to Thor's face. "Let's see how many pieces we end up in first."
People call pirate stupid, but he aint. He is bad faith. At the 13 minute mark he lets the mask slip by saying " if we all say this is happening, it will happen." He just doesnt want it to happen and therefor he says it isnt happening. He is just out there to defend twitch.
@@Charharr not for one with the ego of thinking he's better than one, or one that while being an indie also works for a publisher.... PS just happens to fall in both those categories
but there are people colluding right now to make the adpocalypse a reality, that much is true. When you say Pirate is "defending" Twitch you admit that you know some people are currently attacking Twitch, they just haven't been successful yet. Pirate certainly doesn't want to go against his own platform but he certainly isnt lying when he shows his data.
I had never heard of you before this video, but props on trying your hardest to remain as respectful and empathetic as possible. I also want to give you props on being able to transform this into an interesting talk past the initial topic. You seemed like you genuinely wanted to have a conversation instead of getting stuck on whether you were right or wrong (even if that effort wasn't reciprocated by thor) (seriously tho, he was being... frustratingly stubborn, when i reached 1:07:55 i literally said "oh my god we've reached an inch" lmao)
Its still relevant its just not relative to the outcome essentially, hence why understanding stats instead of taking a UA-cam short at face value is better.
UA-cam shorts are fun and all, but real facts need more context. There is just not enough context within 60 seconds of a video. Unless you speak ungodly fast lol
Saying you don't know if it's happening because we don't have the data is fine, asserting something isn't happening is a positive claim that you must prove, Saying we don't have the data ain't enough
Here's what i don't like, there's no scenario where Thor is wrong, if there is an adpocolypse he'll say that he just told to wait, and if there isn't hes right, there's no scenario where he raises a white flag and say, I'm wrong guys
"there is going to be a war in bing se, ive seen soldiers advancing in tunnels" "i dont see any fighting right now, did you take pictures?" "no, i only have some witnesses"
This is giving me vibes of Pirate Software Thor's other really bad take: Stop Killing Games initiative. '~Wholly against it because the initial draft language is too vague; it could be used to hurt devs in ways it doesn't intend to.' So we should throw the whole thing out? Devin isn't making any conjectures by saying 'Advertisers have pulled their ads from Twitch. This reality qualifies and quantifies the existence of the "Adpocalypse". These facts are from secondary and tertiary sources from the perspective of your Twitch dashboard. These are each primary sources from the point of view of themselves.' Thor: 'My dashboard isn't showing any decrease in revenue. Therefor, the adpocalypse isn't real/isn't really happening. ***YET***' Seems like this was a two hour discussion over the semantics of what is or is not to be seen as the definition of the term 'adpocalypse'. The big streamers need to be getting their ducks in a row now, and pressuring Twitch to change for the better now. Not waiting for the revenue on their dashboard to start dropping before they do something.
Basically pirate is saying, I haven’t been personally affected by a decrease in advertising so it’s not happening and everybody else who is claiming they are affected are saying so for incorrect reasons. Granting him that, any decrease in advertising revenue would inherently be a lagging indicator of advertising spend being killed now. He is a smart enough guy to understand that. I don’t know why he’s digging in.
That isnt' what he is saying. What he is saying is that there is not currently an "adpocalypse" happening on twitch when people are claming that there is. The analytics for twitch don't support that it's happening right now and after the conversation, Devin agrees with him. And both of them agree that in the future, possibly the near future, one could happen.
@mapleworldorder I think the technicality that adverse effects are not yet visible is a concession that Devin made so that the conversation could remain productive. Pirate’s denial of any outside information meant the Devin wasn’t going to make any headway. Devin’s bomb analogy is appropriate in this case. I applaud Pirate not inherently appealing to authority but Devin’s insight into advertisers should be taken in good faith.
@@MaPleWoRlDOrder there is a lag of impact, think of it like shipping, you have things in transit (the ads) and you have the dock workers loading the shipments, well if the dock workers stop working, and stop loading shipping containers, the shipments already in transit will still arrive, it's just that once those shipments in transit (prepaid ad contracts) run out, there is not going to be magical shipments appearing out of thin air. Once the ads that have already been paid for run out, you will start to see the major impact caused by the people that have pulled out.
@@MaPleWoRlDOrder I think there is a bigger issue that is being ignored in all of this... They both agree that they've cut ads from certain tags, then where do those ads go? Those ads would get played on other channels and effectively prop up channels that don't have those tags, which would prolong/insulate him from seeing the revenue drop... He's already admitted this, just doesn't realize it.
You could argue that where you stand on this depends on what is meant by the term "Adpocalypse". If you believe it means companies are pulling their Ad dollars away from Twitch and that there is an environment that has manifested in which companies are pulling away from doing business with Twitch, then I think you'd be hard pressed to argue that isn't happening. It's rather unquestionable that these things are the case. What Thor is arguing is that if Twitch can offset the impact of that through other means or different revenue streams in such a way that it doesn't impact the "content creators", then it's not an "Adpocalypse" from the "content creators perspective" and thus not important. IMO, that is a very short sighted and lazy take though. If my company is able to divert their revenue towards paying my salary then I might not care if the business is shrinking from a reduction in revenue because "I got paid". However, my livelihood is dependent on the continued success and existence of the company I work for, so ultimately the health of the company I work for SHOULD matter to me because eventually it WILL come for my job and paycheck. This is why I, and I assume others, wouldn't take a job at a crumbling company or you seek new employment when the writing is on the wall. The mentality of Thor is something that is so common in people today though. They don't think about the health of the company they work for, or in this case the platform that is affording them a paycheck, and instead have a myopic view of just how they are doing. No wonder so many companies go out of business and employees end up on unemployment seeking new jobs. EDIT: I don't know much about PirateSoftware but I get these strong feeling that he comes from money and privilege and doesn't really understand the concern people have (or should have) about the health and wellbeing of the platform/company that affords them a paycheck that pays for their rent and food. A very common take I see from democrat social elitists that fancy themselves "intelligent".
Well i can safely say theres no adpocalypse on youtube. I got 2 ads every 5/6 minutes throughout the entire video. The fucking superbowl doesnt have this many ads.
Simple TL;DR: Thor - There is no Ad-pocalyse, currently. Devin - I can see one coming. Thor's take: If it's happening, it's not happened yet. Devin's take: The forecast is it's coming and would be i good idea to prepare.
Wait I love that this convo happened (haven't listened yet but I heard pirate talking about it the other day and was really hoping Devin and Him would talk)
He was the co-host for trainwrecks podcast and once that ended devon kinda went back to his corner of the internet. Devon's always had a very specific type of analytic content not really all that popular.
Didn't Devin already say that as buys for November has been effected in his last video? If anyone has some credibility to make up on this it's Devin not pirate software and I don't even like pirate: usually he talks directly out his ass
@colamity_5000 yes there is an adpocalypse. 11 of their biggest advertisers pulled out. They had to change community policies. These tags just stopped all hot tub and political comtent creators, who were some of the biggest creators, from getting 90% of their ad money. Therr is an apocalypse, they just stopped paying a huge chunk of people so they could pay their biggest ones.
@colamity_5000 Yes, he did, and yes, they have. The ad buys were affected, they were reduced, the issue is that there is still pre-existing fulfilments on the ads bought before that so it's not verifiable on the streamer level.
Dean defines adpocalypse as the process and result, says the adpocalypse is happening Pirate defines adpocalypse as the result, says the adpocalypse isn't happening The process is happening and the result hasn't happened so both are correct given their definitions The problem with pirates initial tweet is that it could lead to people believing that the process isn't happening The problem with Dan's messaging is that it could lead people to believe that the result is currently happening Confusion can arise for viewers who don't understand these distinctions so I think the message should be: The adpocalypse is happening right now, behind the scenes, but it hasn't hit the streamers yet.
*Low fuel warning lights up on dashboard* Thor: “My car is still running fine and there’s no data to prove the fuel in my car is low. I’m just going to keep on driving.”
Great conversation. Not hostile. Getting closer to understanding each other's pov. I lean slightly towards Devin's take and think Thor needs to take some responsibility for the rhetorical impact of his statements even if they are not exactly what he says. This is what public figures have to do
Good thing Thor didn't live in the danger zone for the hurricanes that just came by, because it sounds like he wouldn't have evacuated because the hurricanes weren't real, because they hadn't hit the US yet
PirateSoftware logic fails is what the title should be. I love his stream, I agree on most of his takes but I can't back him up on this one. Same thing happened about the video games licensing issue where game publishers are making your digital games, licences only. You will never own a digital game you bought and Thor is arguing that it's actually necessary because publishers can't support game servers indefinitely... Like, no shit sherlock... Gamer's aren't asking anyone to host games indefinitely.. They're asking to make games that can no longer be supported to either be allowed to be hosted by volunteer servers OR make the game available on offline mode so you don't have to burden any server when playing it offline. At least you will still have access to the games that you should own in the first place.. Thor's logic is blatantly flawed in these two topics and just because he's so articulate and have amazing voice doesn't make his stance correct. Devin made the PERFECT analogy of a nuclear bomb. "We see the explosion, it's just a matter of time before the blast wave hits.." Of course there's no stats or solid piece of evidence that tells us how strong the blast will be because it hasn't hit us yet. But we know it's coming and for the most part that is all that matters. If Devin has insider knowledge about brands holding or cancelling their ads then it's just a matter of time before these streamers feel the adpocalypse.. Thor's insane for this.
King Devin lets the jester beat the dead horse. then proceeds in lifting his kingdom by posting the whole darn thing. im so glad your back you rule with a kind iron fist.
54:53 PS says "...The point that I will always make is: There is a potential for this, let's wait and see..." Devon specifically said that PS is coming from a place of authority and said "There is no Twitch Apocalypse" at the start of his post but everyone is going to take that as "There is no problem on Twitch" and PS just says that he "doesn't mean that and how is he supposed to know how anyone is going to take it" and "I said it plainly with no reading between the lines needed". If he just said the quote I started this comment with in that post then all would be dandy, but him not saying it makes it seem like the inferred "There is no problem with Twitch" is correct when people read PS's post because many people don't know how straightforward he is and that is why I think a lot of people are having a negative view on his post. I will also follow my own reasoning and state that I like PS, and a lot of people attack him for dumb reasons, but in this scenario I was annoyed that he didn't make it more clear in his post and knew people would make a lot of dumb negative comments toward him because of it.
Yeah even in his last statement on it after clarifying that 'nothing is happening' is not what he thinks, he goes back to 'nothing is happening' lol you can see Devon tempted to circle again but he lets it go.
It's time to double think about everything he says, cause it's not a mishap, it's done on purpose. Not the first time too. It feels like he's running a gigantic social experiment on his community and I'm weirded out that nobody notices it.
I feel like you would have to be very dumb to take "There is no Twitch Apocalypse" as "There is no problem on Twitch". It's like people are out to get him trying to read between the lines to find something that doesn't exist and crucify him over it.
@@onam3000 why are you saying this when Devon mentioned in this conversation multiple times that he took that as what Thor meant and that is what many people are going to take it to mean?
@@TankHealzDps I think Devin said that before he realized Thor's definition of adpocalypse is much narrower. Thor just means what he says no more no less and doesn't like jumping into conclusions without strong evidence. Devin showed him evidence. I agree with Thor on how ridiculous the overreaction to the situation is by certain streamers, but doubting Richard Lewis' reporting has always been a bad move historically speaking.
Thor not realizing that he’s in an extremely niche part of twitch that doesn’t pay the best is so funny to me a lot of people have data to prove their not getting the same ad revenue and a few advertisers have just disappeared overnight
25:06 the vibe I’m getting kind of seems like Devin is a scientist and Thor is a monk. Devin is using data to try and project outwards and prepare proactively for the likely potential future, Thor is kind of like “anything can happen between now and then, therefore I will react based on the circumstances as they come”. Neither are incorrect, but it’s interesting to note how from one perspective, notably Devin’s it seems presumed that one can accurately predict the future and act based on that, while from Thor’s one cannot accurately predict the future and can only react to events as they happen, both being views with merit. I can understand Devin’s POV and how it can even feel like Thor is being nit-picky and finicky, but if we don’t read into what Thor is saying beyond what he has said, he is making sense. One could make a case for Thor being able to communicate his points in a way that’d be more clear for the average reader, perhaps with some context as to where he’s coming from, but arguably that is unnecessary, as those interested or able to understand already have the means to find out, and those uninterested won’t bother anyhow. An interesting compromise could be not reacting unnecessarily to the information, but having extra revenue streams, and general preparations in case of events like an adpocalypse actually coming to fruition, but that’s more of a general life approach as opposed to an adpocalypse specific approach. Either way, really cool and fascinating to see two wildly differing perspectives on these matters interact in an amicable manner. It even challenged my own biases and listening skills, fruit for thought. Thanks Devin and Thor! :) Might edit this comment if my view changes throughout the discussion though, idk.
I don't enjoy the way PS treats a "potential situation", like yes people obviously shouldn't jump ship out of irrational panic... but like, wouldn't you want to educate and prepare yourself for the worst case? Nobody anticipates to get robbed or mugged at any given moment in public on a day to day, that's paranoia. It can still happen though, so why wouldn't you choose to be prepared for plausibility instead of being a victim to it?
the "ex-homeless guy" already forgot that for some people Twitch is their entire livelihood and they don't have spare money to invest and be fine in case they need to move. It's grossly irresponsible. Even if it would end up never happening, people definitely should be prepared for the possibility.
Yeah Thor clearly emphasized the importance of being on multiple platforms for this reason. He's well aware of the risk of it happening, he's just fed up with other streamers acting like they're already "getting robbed".
The problem starts with Twitch never having enforced their tos on tags ever, which made it turn in to a top in category meme for the big streamers and destroyed all credibility of it. PirateSoftware is again talking around things that are totally clear. Twitch is at a point where they have to get rid of the terror talk and hatespeech or they are getting crushed. A lot of streams violate multiple countries laws with hatespeech or platforming terrorists, advertisers will have to take action and have.
Another thing i want to add while im still listening so idk if itll come up but most advertisers plan their ad spend at least a month out if not to January at this pont in the year we might not see the fall out till January or February.
One thing I love doing on twitch is going into the Retro category and counting how many streams of Malcolm in the Middle, Star Trek, full movies and more are running that day, most in Spanish. I wonder if the copyright holders even know, considering how relatively few people retro has and how you'd have to browse the category to see it.
My issue is i view the way pirate software is talking about twitch is seemingly the same as when hasan said russia isnt invading ukraine while all the warning lights were going off. He very well might be correct but it just seems like hes ignoring everything except the most obvious sign of his immediate income not changing
Good talk about this. Always down to chat more. Updating the burrito index again at the end of the month and bringing it back to a standard thing for the community. So far we're seeing a 6% increase in adrev for November over October but we're not done with the month yet so it's incomplete data. We should chat again either at the end of the month or end of the year about what data comes through.
Assuming payouts to creators is directly correlated to ad spending monthly/weekly/daily or the like and not a static amount per quarter. Its not really crazy that the month containing black friday and cyber monday saw an increase in revenue november over october. This does not support your point.
@@skabadoo255 That's solved with seasonal adjusted analysis. Also, it would still prove his point, because advertisers would still have confidence in the platform to deliver business their way.
while I will never forgive you for cutting off Niarja and ruining my JF routes I agree we should keep having more awesome discussions for the betterment of the galaxy as a whole
I am just a dude on YT, but have done a thing or two in the business world have worked in a number of industries. To give an analogy this is a conversation between the hands and the eyes. Same body but different things they care about. This is an example of why things are difficult, everyone has different concerns and thinking everyone needs to have their concerns. The real lesson of this conversation is to start where you agree then you build out your personal views. This builds a collaboration that builds everyone's knowledge.
It seems he was saying he's already prepared through constant diversification and advocates for doing so against any possible event, rather than any specific event. Even Devin mentioned he's likely going to be fine because of his size. Devin's comment about this hurting midsized, less diversified streams seems to be something pirate isn't interested in (at this moment). This seems somewhat valid, as if creators followed best practices, they would be prepared as well, so ps has taken a stance on how to protect yourself. On the other hand, Devin seems to either have more empathy for these smaller channels, or believes they're crucial for the overall health of the platform and it's worth it to take a more active role in protecting them. If you're making decisions for your own business in an unpredictable market, these are both valid lenses. (At an argument level, I'm not adressing the tweet) When i was an ad buyer, we thought pulling back too early might severely hurt performance for what seems like no reason. It's generally been a good idea to go all in while you can with extreme vigilance that things can change any second and respond accordingly. Secondarily, we watch for new opportunities to change what we're doing.
@@burnout3373 I deleted Twitter recently. He inferred that pirate was calling him an "uppity J*w", and put those words within quotation marks, which made it seem as though that was a direct quote from thor
Thor is engaging with this topic in the most cringe way possible. It honestly seems like he's intentionally acting obtuse in order to win an argument. His entire point rests on him saying "well we just can't know anything, cause it hasn't happened yet". Devin then tells him that this is certainly going to happen cause there are numerous advertisers that have paused ads. Thor's response remains the same, which is "well it hasn't hit me yet, so it's not real". Nice man! Super good faith engagement with the substance of the conversation!!! Edit: Oh god, it gets even worse. Thor then makes the claim, "well I can't control how people will interpret my message, and technically I'm correct". Lil bro, if tons of people are misunderstanding your message, then maybe your message is just shit. Language is imprecise. Communication thru language always has tons of implications along with it. You'd never go ask a friend "hey, are you hungry" and then walk away when they answer yes. The obvious implication of that question is that you want to go eat with them. Your tweet is clearly implying that everything is perfectly OK with Twitch. There's evidence that it isn't. Choosing to ignore that evidence and then proclaiming that your statement is "technically" right is hollow and meaningless.
What Thor fails to realize is that he isn't just showing the numbers. He is adding his interpretation of them. And as soon as he does, it's not 100% facts as he claims, there's a bias
The video starts at 39:14. Once the first back-and-forth is resolved, the rest of the video is great. (The first topic ends at 42:54 if you've already seen enough of it).
Piratesoftware conflating objective conclusions with subjective conclusions because of subjective reasoning, sprinkled with using fear attempting to subjugate a self-fulfilling prophecy. A little use of motte-bailey as well. Devon, I don't know you well but you did great here. You don't need to coddle him so much to still respect him, it's actually a little of the opposite. Seriously, what is the takeaway if it is coming, for sure, or happening, for sure? Be prepared. Are you harmed from taking this approach? Now compare the opposite, what if you wait until... Not only the writing is on the wall... but the ship is sinking? Do you prepare then? Take care and thank you.
These conversations are great, but I think they would be better if we could see Thor on screen. The non-verbal communication shown through his facial movements may help with the combative chatters.
So certain tags got demonetized. Let's assume those tags are X% of all streams. If some advertisers pull out of twitch, AND those advertisers represent Y% of advertisers (in terms of money). If the Y% is around or close to the X% mentioned before, the other tags would not see a meaningful difference. So the conversation is more of a comparison between the X and Y. And this can be quite tricky to approach without the actual numbers that twitch would never share. There are too many things to take into consideration to get the correct info, for example : - streamers change the content of their stream would decrease the X% even if no further advertisers pull out. - The advertisers that pulled out are the ones that would pull out in January anyway, so the impact will only be seen in post February - The conversation about adpocalypse causing the change in the X or Y. - A third party decision or change (like a new law, a controversy, competition from another provider...) makes an impact on the Y. -....
there's a hurricane on the way to your house in about 3 days. But it's not pouring rain outside RIGHT NOW so there is no reason to worry about flooding.
It's a little different. The adpocalypse is more like a hurricane that people are complaining has hit their house and destroyed their roof before it has even made landfall or rained. He's saying "hey it might be termites or something else so research it because the hurricane isn't here." He's not saying the adpocalypse is 100% coming because he has seen journalists inflate issues before and until Devin has given him concrete evidence like saying Chase is pausing ads on the site, he hasn't heard any news site name a single ad that was pulling (honestly same here I just believed Devin before). Climate change in this situation is more akin to Twitch handling bans and politics becoming worse and worse. The greenhouse gasses are getting crazier and crazier as the political content borders more and more on the extreme and Twitch isn't properly managing any of it. The adpocalypse is just a mega storm that's bigger than usual due to the climate change in twitch that threatens to destroy the infrastructure and trust of twitch island.
rhis was the worst example you could find we have a lot of pretty graphs and reliable hard data that proves climate change and its manmade component, hell temperatures are changing RIGHT NOW we have anonymous insiders, rumors and devin saying "trust me bro" that supports an adpoclypse is soon to come hard data vs no hard data, you missed piratesoftware's whole argument.
The combination of Thor being so confident even when hes wrong, and the stupid bass boosted filter to make his voice sound manly are such an oddly funny combination
@@cqpzg I mean, it's pretty clear his normal stream mic is bass boosted. His appearance on the streamer awards from 9 months, from 2 different mics, shows that. I personally like the non-bass boosted mic more, you can hear the inflections on his voice better, and it seems not as tiresome to hear.
@@Tearatom95 i think it could be both he just uses a default yeti mic, but yeti mics if i remember correctly and other mics can come with built in bass boosting, and he also turns up the gain and speaks quieter to not wear his voice out on 12 hr streams which will also contribute to it
It sounds like he doesn't care about if it affects anyone as long as it doesn't affect him everyone should just be quiet. He also misrepresents the UA-cam adpocalypse.
If anyone found the debate frustrating, stick around for the second half, at which point the conversation stops being combative and they have an interesting discussion of the twitch ad platform. This was my first exposure to PirateSoftware, and I ultimately came away with thinking he's an insightful and intelligent guy, even though I do think Devin is correct, given his experience.
@@Jackolantirn 1:09:40 onward roughly. Also, there are several more hours not included in this video (Devin said he's making a separate vid, or you can look up the twitch VOD) where PirateSoftware talks about his content strategy and how he went from ~400 avg viewers to 15000 in about a month, among other things.
Yeah, the rest of the comments surprised me. They're both just sharing their experience as businesses owners and agree that they're talking about different aspects of the same topic.
The logic itself doesn't extend reasonably to any arbitrary business decision. I make life decisions based on my income. Part of my income is variable and based on data, but I can't base all of it on data alone. Let's say I get paid bi-weekly. If my boss came up to me and said, "I'm reducing your hourly rate to $0. If you come in tomorrow and work, you will be paid $0." No reasonable person would wait for the data on this. By virtue of it being bi-weekly, if your boss said this right after payday, you're effectively going to be missing 4 weeks of income. 4 weeks you could have used to get a different job. At week 3, you can absolutely say, "There is no data driven evidence, that what my boss told me was the truth. The data is telling me that my payrate hasn't changed." - And that's an objectively true statement, fair enough. It's still bad analysis. Not all analysis is data driven, unfortunately.
Great analysis, thank you! Could you help me with something unrelated: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?
This discussion is pretty frustrating to listen to because they are both discussing different things. Thor is just saying that all the people claiming that they lost money because advertisers pulled out are wrong, and they are losing money because of the tags or losing views. Which he is right about and Devin admits to it, the advertisers pulling out won't be a visible effect until later on. But the writting is on the wall that there will be an effect, and Thor admitis to it too. The thing is, Thor's clearly referring to The Adpocalypse as streamer losing ad revenue because of the advertisers pulling out, while Devin refers to The Adpocalypse as the fact that advertisers are pulling out. They are both correct about things, while discussing different things and referring to a word as two different things. It gets frustrating as hell to see them disagree in something they agree.
I can't agree with thor's argument in the beginning of the video mostly because I trust devin's dataset more. And no, both can't be right at the same time.
Twitch needs rewind and skip ads for viewers after 2 or 3 ads or, depending on the amount they (the viewer) get, allow the streamer to still get paid by the ad after 2-3 ads were played before being skipped
The problem with having a stance that "Nothing's wrong on *my* side, with *my* data" is that it's such an insular mindset and falls apart at some point on a case-by-case basis or under more scrutiny than a cursory glance. If you see markets talking about a general global recession because of a market crash, just because you aren't seeing the price of goods effect you *right then and there*, doesn't mean you should be oblivious to the signs. I don't mean to sound extreme here, but Thor's stance is unironically the same reasoning people use to hand-wave or avoid legitimate discussions about climate change because "Well the weather's been ok where I live and from my life experience, what does it matter that people who are in the field say there are noticeable factors proving otherwise? Everything's fine".
4:37 didnt Twitch stop doing the special contracts with top streamers in the 2021-2022 time frame? as in they ended this practice, its just now partnership.
For anyone wondering where Thor and I are at or if there was any issue with this discussion. The way I see this talk is two damn good professionals sharing expertise and helping each other reach conclusions in real time. I am a marketing professional but I don't practice an exact science. I see Thor's perspective and his mindset is absolutely correct to wait and see tangible developments in his data before making decisions about his business - or saying with certainty that something is going on to his community. Everyone should take all information available and develop their own conclusions based on a combination of their own data, experience, and outside expertise - and that is exactly what Thor is doing.
We are so polarized by media and drama that it's impossible for many to believe that two people with differing viewpoints can have a reasonable conversation and grow from it. I don't see this as a "Thor or Devin is right or wrong" issue. Thor and I are on opposite sides of the industry and in a rare position where we don't have anything to gain from each other, so this produced a genuine conversation. I'm on the same team as Thor and I think we're both driven to help the media and gaming landscape improve and want to see that happen.
I'm honored Thor came to talk and he's a major force in improving the industry. Above all I hope people enjoy the discussion.
so you have verifiable information, but wont release it, THAT is stupid command someone to speak a certain way using streamer guilt, yours fuckin weird
its a bit daft to argue this hard over wanting people to use your reference point for something as interconnected as ad revenue. It's akin to measuring sealevel and stating climate change isnt real. It might be in the future, but blah blah blah.
As a professional, I would expect little bumbs like this not to become the focus of the argument. It's arguing semantics at that point.
Wish I would have caught this live! Do you think that political spending further convolutes the conversation? So much money dried up in the last 2 weeks AND both campaigns were spending more on ads on Twitch.
"in lieu" is pronounced like "in loo"
@@newchannel2458 no, that's the tard way of using this word. Just use instead you aren't saving time. You just seem like a dbag:P I have a hard time accepting english speakers to use french words when they probably talk shit about the french :P
It's pronounced. O- lee euh. But english doesn't have the proper vowels to do the lieu sound. "Au lieu"
Very important to understand what the Dunning-Kruger effect is when listening to someone who speaks with full confidence on every subject
who you speaking about? thor or devin?
@@shrek1onDVD Thor
@@shrek1onDVD Asmongold 😂
@Inforcer47 That would be correct. I thought it was obvious 😅
Not on every subject, on a subject that they only have limited knowledge and understanding about the thing they are talking about. And to be fair, everyone is doing that. They don't have a smoking gun for nothing. If there are people that their revenue is going down, there are plausible explanations about that that doesn't fit the hypothesis presented. There's the Occam's razor.
Devin is like a scientist calculating a meteor's trajectory, double-checking with other experts (ad buyers) to confirm the math. Thor is a citizen in the impact zone who says, "I don't see a meteor, and maybe it'll burn up before hitting us." Both could be right-maybe the math is off, or the meteor dissolves harmlessly. But the danger lies in ignoring expert warnings and relying solely on personal observations (data).
From my understanding, his position is straightforward: perhaps something significant will happen, but for now, nothing has changed yet. And that "yet" is crucial.
To be honest, he approached the discussion like a scientist, analyzing data to determine whether advertisers leaving the platform have had any measurable impact. According to his data, there hasn’t been any impact, YET.
He’s not denying that things are evolving. He’s simply presenting numbers that show the impact has been negligible so far.
Of course, we might see changes sooner rather than later, but who knows? At this point, it’s all speculation. You can hear opinions from multiple experts, but in the end, they’re still opinions. There's nothing more reliable than data to support a claim. As of now, no data suggests that streamers are losing a significant amount of money. That may change in the future, but again, who knows?
@@SeyHan3232 me no rock see in sky. Rock in sky not real. You Devin not good. Bad Devin. I win debate Devin. Oga booga
@@moitp2 this is incorrect, Pirate is saying the data doesn’t show an impact and Devin is telling him it’s impossible to see that impact at this moment because data doesn’t work in real time. Pirate software is intentionally using a red herring for engagement and to use it as a ‘gotcha’. The data may not show the impact right now as data works in the past but Devin is trying to tell him the data source itself has now completely changed (the advertising) and that Pirate is intentionally baiting engagement with saying there is no issue at all. There is an issue, it may not cause trouble but when there’s no money coming to Twitch, it will cause trouble, as we’ve seen previously. Pirate even admits there may not be but he refuses to change his statements as he knows it creates this spotlight on him.
Remember: Pirate says to advertise yourself and get your brand out there by any means necessary.
@@chavo4207 "by any means necessary" is that an exact quote? sounds like that's what you feel he is saying. it implies he condones anything (including illegal or unethical actions) to spread your brand. i dont feel he would get away with spreading a message like that.
You realize Thor doesn't have access to any of that trajectory data right? He's not ignoring experts he's just pointing out that streamer data doesn't suggest anything wrong and other streamers saying otherwise is stupid.
Piratesoftware’s logic is frustrating. Like the news could announce that there a hurricane coming but since it’s dry outside his house right now, there’s no need to worry.
He is right that people shouldn't panic because when you panic is when you make mistakes.
I agree but what it seems to come down to is a lack of information from Twitch itself. Thor's burrito graph shows he had to spend time to derive as much analytics as possible from the information he did get.
The other additional thing is that Twitch is now starting to use tags (which let's face it is a lousy system, it relies on people being honest and not using them to meme), incorporating a trained AI model into the system would be much more effective with regards to demonitization, similar to UA-cam's AI for demonitization. It looks for those things that equate to a condition that is not advertiser friendly or something that violates copyright (Content ID system)
Its more like he is saying "just cause somebody says it's raining outside doesnt mean a hurricane is coming"
hes not as smart as he thinks he is, and ive seen his code its average. 10 minutes in and thor says "theres no evidence of anything changing, just that it might change." people making moves around this issue prove things are already changing, it was just weak
but if the initial claim is that there is a hurricane just outside your house and you can check and see that there isn't, the """expert""" is wrong.
Thor's argument brings back memories to getting my degree in mathematics.
"A set X is an open set, if and only if, for any element x in X, there exists a neighborhood around x, such that the neighborhood is a proper subset of X."
Thor: The empty set is an open set. Since the empty set has no elements, the initial condition of an element existing is false, and thus the statement is vacuously true.
Yeah I mean. Yes. Technically you're correct. But this is not useful. As the most hyperbolic example possible: Prime numbers are numbers that are only divisible by 1 and itself. Can you give me an example of something that isn't a prime number? Yes. A cat is not a prime number. - Totally, 100% true statement.
So, what would be a useful conclusion? The only conclusion is that we have not enough evidence to reach a conclusion. And that argument, on itself, meets the most stringent academic setting, but it doesn't satisfy the public, because the public wants guarantees that no one can offer. Instead, the public must be patient and see.
@@Braiam That depends on your definition of "evidence". An issue with Thor's analysis, even in that strict logical setting, is that his definition for "evidence" was wholly bad. It is objectively bad, frankly. He only allowed hard data to be considered evidence, when he had someone that literally buys and sells ads, telling him that people are pausing their purchases.
If you extend Thor's logic, it implies the following. "Your boss tells you in writing, that for every hour you work, you will not receive any money. He doesn't have the money, and you're effectively being laid off. You decide that you need physical evidence of non-payment, to truly believe that your income will drop to $0. That data shows a different story, that you actually will be getting paid. So you wait 2 weeks to receive that paycheck, to verify the statement from your boss, telling you that you're not going to receive any compensation for working."
Its clopen bro ... chill... I'm a real mathematician here to tell u to chillax. The { } is clopen
Also fun fact: the compliment of empty set is the whole real line (or whatever space u be using) ... and that is ALSO clopen.
So bro... u are just seeing things all wrong.
Wait what is this argument about again?
Also thor uses a bass boost for voice. He is a sperg
Also fun fact: the rationals are a countable union of closed sets
The irrationals are the compliment of the above set.... a countable intersection of open sets.
Try to picture those sets in ur head. I can. But that's cause I'm amazing
Ok fine.... if u wanna visualize f sigma and g delta sets... look up Thomae's function
Last fact .... "chillax" is two words crammed together... just like "clopen"
@@ralphinoful "when he had someone that literally buys and sells ads, telling him that people are pausing their purchases" anecdotes are called anecdotes for something. Heck, in the pyramid of evidence, expert opinion is at the bottom. And if expert opinion is easily dismissiable by contradicting data, then it should be.
@@Braiam If you owned a significant amount of money in Tesla, and someone who works at Charles Schwab told you that he had evidence that Elon Musk was a cross-dresser and that multiple journalists were going to release the story in two weeks, what would you do? It's just anecdotal, and they could be wrong. As a matter of fact you're sure they're wrong. Tesla stock isn't changing outside of norms and YOU'VE never seen the evidence first-hand. But in reality, on the off chance the anecdote is correct, it is a serious problem that could've been avoided. All this analogy to say, anecdotes can not be heavily valid evidence, but sometimes they can be. Depends on the context.
It's like Thor and Devin are in a room and someone yelled grenade. Devin sees the grenade and ran for cover. Thor see the grenade and said I'll wait to see if it will explode.
There is no Adpocalypse in Ba Sing Se
Devin: “I sell the ads to Twitch, they’re pulling out and have told me that directly”
Pirate: “My dashboard hasn’t changed so that’s not true”
I would have ended the conversation there lol
Did you listen to him?
You are all acting like all of this WILL happen, as if NOTHING will be done on Twitch's part or Amazons part. The adpocalypse would happen for sure, where advertisers pull out. BUT only if Twitch does NOT pull new advertisers IN, or convince ADL of doing something else, OR do something that will change the mind of ADL.
Yea, this WILL happen if Twitch goes 'hand's-up' and does NOTHING. But you really gotta be stupid to think that they won't do anything.
Pirate software was saying there's no adpocalypse right this minute but there will be one soon. They both agreed on that sentiment.
@@HH-le1vi Well, kinda; he said there COULD be one soon.
Problems is between Data projection and evidence, right? There exist no public data that would project an adpocalypse.
On the other hand, there's evidence supporting that one MIGHT happen, which is still speculation at this point. Sure evidence points towards it, but without more, it's impossible to say for sure.
@@HH-le1vi I’ll agree to that but Pirate also would not change his ‘factual’ statement, at all. Devin even attempted to meet him half way by asking for an extra footnote of clarity attached to that, he absolutely refused because he knows what he’s saying isn’t actually a statement of fact.
@@nicki6355 an expert opinion can be used as evidence itself in some capacity and with the backing of the article, I’d say that expert opinion is thus reinforced with Devin. To be fair though, I’m a bit biased towards Devin, I find him very informative and entertaining so that could be a factor lol
I’m glad other are starting to notice how confidently wrong Thor can be
I mean this is the guy who smugly both sidesed the war in Ukraine and then said both sides are bad because the war might negatively affect the tech field.
you mean to tell me the Blizzard nepo baby doesn't actually have 20 years of genuine gamedev experience
But what is he wrong about?
@@paegr Ah yes you hack powerplants, win awards at defcon, work at several games studio's for over a decade, and make games from being a nepo baby. Very sound logic. Actual troll.
Edit: This is all easy to find and prove, saying there's sources disproving it is insane behavior and you clearly did not research anything, stop lying. A quick 1 minute google search will help you stumble upon him showing up in credits of several games, as well as group photo's of him at defcon, and another quick google search will find you the awards he was given for winning at defcon. And Argy, stop lying about your non-existent "sources", freak.
@@Lorelath None of that actually happened. It takes a few seconds to find sources for my claim and a few hours at most to read those sources. Anyone reading this is free to do it. I don't care about any of these people, or you, or winning an argument. I just think it's funny when liars are exposed.
You can see Devin slowly realize that PirateSoftware doesn't know what he's talking about
Yeah it’s an awkward conversation. Luckily Devin is a nice guy.
Thor’s confidence does wonders for anything he says. True or false you tend to lean towards whatever he’s saying if you don’t have prior knowledge
@@ronmexico7256 I think Thor in some areas is really smart like when he talks about hacking and all the work he's done in that space. But I think maybe after blowing up he's developed a bit of an ego because things like this come up and he speaks with such confidence about things it's clear he has very little understanding.
@@imnezu8940 Nah, he is clueless about hacking as well. Unless you treat social engineering as hacking. But his technical skills are pretty bad.
@@MrDarkoiV what makes you believe that this is the case
The bomb example was the best way to explain it. After that the conversation was done. The affect has already happened, the event is already happening. You’re just waiting for the fallout.
This is like him saying the stars still exist as he can see the light. Time delayed effects do not mean somethings not already happened.
yes, and the issue is that there are only about less than 10 people that have claimed to actually see a bomb dropping but they havent taken pictures.
I don’t quite understand Thor’s logic. Devin establishes that there’s a delay between advertisers pulling funding and the impact. If you wait for the strike, then it’s too late. I get not freaking out too early, but it’s almost worst to be blind and reactionary only when shit hits the fan. Devin didn't just see the bomb... he was in the room with the people who launched the bomb.
Right on the dot
They're only speaking to their own experiences, neither are authoritive. Thor would be effectively lying if he parroted unverified information as fact.
Hes made a whole carreer about being confident about everything he says, i think its momentum at this point. Instead of giving his opinion, wich isnt a crazy one, and then accepting that he might be wrong, hes full throatedly confident from the get go because thats what hes used to
In what sense is Thor blind to the situation? He acknowledges the chance of this happening in the future hence the always be on multiple platforms etc. but you can't know if it will happen or not based on current data.
@@emptylog933 It is not lying to say "It seems likely advertisers could pull out but still a chance they wont" that is not a lie, and that is what someone like Devin is saying. Just like a prediction can't be a lie, or else all weather forecasts are "lies".
I was so close giving up after 30 min, that was infuriating. Glad I stayed because the last 1h45min was an interesting conversation to listen in on.
Yeah if I wasn't cooking with this video in the background I definitely would have clicked out early. The video is really good after that conversation ended.
* guy orders a pizza delivery *
“THERE IS NO PIZZA COMING IT DOESNT EXIST UNTIL I SEE IT IN MY HANDS” okay bro
Who order the pizza in this case asmon or destiny?
@@viniciusPatto Asmon definitely
This 2 1/2 hours boils down to Thor not trusting Devin's take that twitch is in the early stages of an adpocalypse. Add to that Thor posting on twitter, there is NO adpocalypse just trust me bro.
Devin is speaking about advertisers moving away from twitch as a whole while Thor is speaking about individual streamers not losing advertising.
Both of these things can certainly be true. Devin is suggesting a proactive approach to what he perceives to be an inevitable outcome while Thor suggests a passive approach.
I fully agree with Devin when he says that Thor should probably be more clear in that he has no experienced a loss of advertising to his personal channel or the handful of individual channels he's looked at.
Missed the second half of the convo, thanks for uploading this.
That isnt Pirate software his voice isnt bass boosted enough
Dudes whole persona is a meme
His third puberty hasnt kicked in yet
Piratesoftware’s argument comes down to “If the tornado didn’t hit my house there wasn’t a tornado.”
“My thermometer is broken. Therefore, the temperature is not changing”
-i have first hand knowledge of a declaration of war against us and we have satelite photos of the enemy military base getting ready to attack
- i dont see any soldiers in front of me, we are clearly not at war...🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
that is just not true, nobody has "satellite photos" of advertisers puling out
that would be the hard evidence thor is asking for and devin SIMPLY CANNOT PROVIDE.
This entire thought process can be disprove by the Soviet union and the US cold war. Both sides were ready and we kept saying it was going to happen, but nothing did. Even the Submarine who had data saying they had a explosion like event could not definitively prove it was a nuke and decided not to fire.
If you have not watched the movie War Games, you should.
Nobody should make life changing decisions and repeat someone else propaganda just because the fucking ADL and some shit for brains journalists have some anonymous sources about how much trouble you're in.
The hand wringing and the self delusion over this scenario is crazy. Everyone has made up their minds, and will come up with a million different reasons for why Thor isn't saying what they want him to say. You'd have to be a little bitch to capitulate and jump onto the thought bandwagon like a sheep. Nothing he said was wrong and he doesn't want to cry and ring the alarm bells over hearsay.
@@francisxavier8374 DEVIN SAYS HE KNOWS LOL
Pirate Software's real skill is his ability to sell and market himself as an expert. The more you look into his claims of hacking expertise and gave dev experience, the more it all falls apart. He was infamous in the past for his problematic behaviour in Second Life and EVE online, and tries to separate himself from his previous identity as Maldavius Figtree for this reason.
Pirate must have been terrible at catch as a kid, because this guy needs to see the ball land before he's ready to acknowledge the trajectory.
You can hear the whistling of the bomb falling. You look up. You see the plane making an exit. You see the bomb falling. Camera pans to Thor's face. "Let's see how many pieces we end up in first."
Devin - you have the patience of a saint.
People call pirate stupid, but he aint. He is bad faith.
At the 13 minute mark he lets the mask slip by saying " if we all say this is happening, it will happen." He just doesnt want it to happen and therefor he says it isnt happening. He is just out there to defend twitch.
If PS is one thing, it's a corpo shill. Ironic for an "indie game dev"
@@CharharrLOL real
@@Charharr not for one with the ego of thinking he's better than one, or one that while being an indie also works for a publisher.... PS just happens to fall in both those categories
but there are people colluding right now to make the adpocalypse a reality, that much is true. When you say Pirate is "defending" Twitch you admit that you know some people are currently attacking Twitch, they just haven't been successful yet. Pirate certainly doesn't want to go against his own platform but he certainly isnt lying when he shows his data.
Manipulative is the word and it's not the first time he shows it
I had never heard of you before this video, but props on trying your hardest to remain as respectful and empathetic as possible. I also want to give you props on being able to transform this into an interesting talk past the initial topic. You seemed like you genuinely wanted to have a conversation instead of getting stuck on whether you were right or wrong (even if that effort wasn't reciprocated by thor) (seriously tho, he was being... frustratingly stubborn, when i reached 1:07:55 i literally said "oh my god we've reached an inch" lmao)
It feels like they are arguing an Adpocalypse Watch VS an Adpocalypse Warning (like aTornado Watch VS a Tornado Warning)
Its still relevant its just not relative to the outcome essentially, hence why understanding stats instead of taking a UA-cam short at face value is better.
UA-cam shorts are fun and all, but real facts need more context. There is just not enough context within 60 seconds of a video. Unless you speak ungodly fast lol
the second part of this in insane, both devin's and thor's minds blown with new information is something else
Saying you don't know if it's happening because we don't have the data is fine, asserting something isn't happening is a positive claim that you must prove, Saying we don't have the data ain't enough
Here's what i don't like, there's no scenario where Thor is wrong, if there is an adpocolypse he'll say that he just told to wait, and if there isn't hes right, there's no scenario where he raises a white flag and say, I'm wrong guys
Jason would never admit he's wrong regardless. He'll just find a way to make it sound like he was right all along.
@@ReformedOrthodoxRabbiClinton he's already done it, his argument is framed in a way where there is no way he's unequivocally wrong
You know what, when this dudes shorts show up on my feed in the future, it’s now an auto scroll. I think I heavily overestimated this man’s intellect.
This convo gives "There is no war in Ba Sing Se" vibes, at least up until the 1:09:30-ish mark
"there is going to be a war in bing se, ive seen soldiers advancing in tunnels"
"i dont see any fighting right now, did you take pictures?"
"no, i only have some witnesses"
This is giving me vibes of Pirate Software Thor's other really bad take: Stop Killing Games initiative. '~Wholly against it because the initial draft language is too vague; it could be used to hurt devs in ways it doesn't intend to.' So we should throw the whole thing out?
Devin isn't making any conjectures by saying 'Advertisers have pulled their ads from Twitch. This reality qualifies and quantifies the existence of the "Adpocalypse". These facts are from secondary and tertiary sources from the perspective of your Twitch dashboard. These are each primary sources from the point of view of themselves.'
Thor: 'My dashboard isn't showing any decrease in revenue. Therefor, the adpocalypse isn't real/isn't really happening. ***YET***'
Seems like this was a two hour discussion over the semantics of what is or is not to be seen as the definition of the term 'adpocalypse'. The big streamers need to be getting their ducks in a row now, and pressuring Twitch to change for the better now. Not waiting for the revenue on their dashboard to start dropping before they do something.
Basically pirate is saying, I haven’t been personally affected by a decrease in advertising so it’s not happening and everybody else who is claiming they are affected are saying so for incorrect reasons. Granting him that, any decrease in advertising revenue would inherently be a lagging indicator of advertising spend being killed now. He is a smart enough guy to understand that. I don’t know why he’s digging in.
That isnt' what he is saying. What he is saying is that there is not currently an "adpocalypse" happening on twitch when people are claming that there is. The analytics for twitch don't support that it's happening right now and after the conversation, Devin agrees with him. And both of them agree that in the future, possibly the near future, one could happen.
@mapleworldorder I think the technicality that adverse effects are not yet visible is a concession that Devin made so that the conversation could remain productive. Pirate’s denial of any outside information meant the Devin wasn’t going to make any headway. Devin’s bomb analogy is appropriate in this case. I applaud Pirate not inherently appealing to authority but Devin’s insight into advertisers should be taken in good faith.
@@MaPleWoRlDOrder there is a lag of impact, think of it like shipping, you have things in transit (the ads) and you have the dock workers loading the shipments, well if the dock workers stop working, and stop loading shipping containers, the shipments already in transit will still arrive, it's just that once those shipments in transit (prepaid ad contracts) run out, there is not going to be magical shipments appearing out of thin air. Once the ads that have already been paid for run out, you will start to see the major impact caused by the people that have pulled out.
@@MaPleWoRlDOrder I think there is a bigger issue that is being ignored in all of this... They both agree that they've cut ads from certain tags, then where do those ads go? Those ads would get played on other channels and effectively prop up channels that don't have those tags, which would prolong/insulate him from seeing the revenue drop... He's already admitted this, just doesn't realize it.
So basically, PirateSoftware waits until the meteor has hit the earth before confirming there is a meteor.
You could argue that where you stand on this depends on what is meant by the term "Adpocalypse".
If you believe it means companies are pulling their Ad dollars away from Twitch and that there is an environment that has manifested in which companies are pulling away from doing business with Twitch, then I think you'd be hard pressed to argue that isn't happening. It's rather unquestionable that these things are the case. What Thor is arguing is that if Twitch can offset the impact of that through other means or different revenue streams in such a way that it doesn't impact the "content creators", then it's not an "Adpocalypse" from the "content creators perspective" and thus not important.
IMO, that is a very short sighted and lazy take though. If my company is able to divert their revenue towards paying my salary then I might not care if the business is shrinking from a reduction in revenue because "I got paid". However, my livelihood is dependent on the continued success and existence of the company I work for, so ultimately the health of the company I work for SHOULD matter to me because eventually it WILL come for my job and paycheck.
This is why I, and I assume others, wouldn't take a job at a crumbling company or you seek new employment when the writing is on the wall. The mentality of Thor is something that is so common in people today though. They don't think about the health of the company they work for, or in this case the platform that is affording them a paycheck, and instead have a myopic view of just how they are doing. No wonder so many companies go out of business and employees end up on unemployment seeking new jobs.
EDIT: I don't know much about PirateSoftware but I get these strong feeling that he comes from money and privilege and doesn't really understand the concern people have (or should have) about the health and wellbeing of the platform/company that affords them a paycheck that pays for their rent and food. A very common take I see from democrat social elitists that fancy themselves "intelligent".
Well i can safely say theres no adpocalypse on youtube. I got 2 ads every 5/6 minutes throughout the entire video.
The fucking superbowl doesnt have this many ads.
Simple TL;DR:
Thor - There is no Ad-pocalyse, currently.
Devin - I can see one coming.
Thor's take: If it's happening, it's not happened yet.
Devin's take: The forecast is it's coming and would be i good idea to prepare.
Pirate is the same goof that walked into congress with a snowball and joked about climate change being fake.
Wait I love that this convo happened (haven't listened yet but I heard pirate talking about it the other day and was really hoping Devin and Him would talk)
Man where did you come from? I saw a lot of you in 2019 and the algorithm has blessed you again
He stopped streaming on twitch out of protest.
He was the co-host for trainwrecks podcast and once that ended devon kinda went back to his corner of the internet. Devon's always had a very specific type of analytic content not really all that popular.
@@GypsumGeneration ahh
He's doing a road to 1 million subscribers thing so he's making a lot more content now than before
Pirate is yapping and setting himself up to hold zero accountability when everything Devin says comes true
Didn't Devin already say that as buys for November has been effected in his last video? If anyone has some credibility to make up on this it's Devin not pirate software and I don't even like pirate: usually he talks directly out his ass
@colamity_5000 yes there is an adpocalypse. 11 of their biggest advertisers pulled out. They had to change community policies. These tags just stopped all hot tub and political comtent creators, who were some of the biggest creators, from getting 90% of their ad money. Therr is an apocalypse, they just stopped paying a huge chunk of people so they could pay their biggest ones.
@colamity_5000 Yes, he did, and yes, they have. The ad buys were affected, they were reduced, the issue is that there is still pre-existing fulfilments on the ads bought before that so it's not verifiable on the streamer level.
when has Devin ever been correct? 😅
Except ad revenue is returning to streamers now unless you do politics or anything adult oriented
11, Devin lays it out in NO UNCERTAIN terms ads are being pulled, Thor goes on to deflect, thete dont waste your time.
Dean defines adpocalypse as the process and result, says the adpocalypse is happening
Pirate defines adpocalypse as the result, says the adpocalypse isn't happening
The process is happening and the result hasn't happened so both are correct given their definitions
The problem with pirates initial tweet is that it could lead to people believing that the process isn't happening
The problem with Dan's messaging is that it could lead people to believe that the result is currently happening
Confusion can arise for viewers who don't understand these distinctions so
I think the message should be:
The adpocalypse is happening right now, behind the scenes, but it hasn't hit the streamers yet.
*Low fuel warning lights up on dashboard*
Thor: “My car is still running fine and there’s no data to prove the fuel in my car is low. I’m just going to keep on driving.”
Great conversation. Not hostile. Getting closer to understanding each other's pov. I lean slightly towards Devin's take and think Thor needs to take some responsibility for the rhetorical impact of his statements even if they are not exactly what he says. This is what public figures have to do
Good thing Thor didn't live in the danger zone for the hurricanes that just came by, because it sounds like he wouldn't have evacuated because the hurricanes weren't real, because they hadn't hit the US yet
PirateSoftware logic fails is what the title should be. I love his stream, I agree on most of his takes but I can't back him up on this one. Same thing happened about the video games licensing issue where game publishers are making your digital games, licences only. You will never own a digital game you bought and Thor is arguing that it's actually necessary because publishers can't support game servers indefinitely...
Like, no shit sherlock... Gamer's aren't asking anyone to host games indefinitely.. They're asking to make games that can no longer be supported to either be allowed to be hosted by volunteer servers OR make the game available on offline mode so you don't have to burden any server when playing it offline. At least you will still have access to the games that you should own in the first place..
Thor's logic is blatantly flawed in these two topics and just because he's so articulate and have amazing voice doesn't make his stance correct.
Devin made the PERFECT analogy of a nuclear bomb. "We see the explosion, it's just a matter of time before the blast wave hits.." Of course there's no stats or solid piece of evidence that tells us how strong the blast will be because it hasn't hit us yet. But we know it's coming and for the most part that is all that matters. If Devin has insider knowledge about brands holding or cancelling their ads then it's just a matter of time before these streamers feel the adpocalypse..
Thor's insane for this.
King Devin lets the jester beat the dead horse. then proceeds in lifting his kingdom by posting the whole darn thing. im so glad your back you rule with a kind iron fist.
54:53 PS says "...The point that I will always make is: There is a potential for this, let's wait and see..."
Devon specifically said that PS is coming from a place of authority and said "There is no Twitch Apocalypse" at the start of his post but everyone is going to take that as "There is no problem on Twitch" and PS just says that he "doesn't mean that and how is he supposed to know how anyone is going to take it" and "I said it plainly with no reading between the lines needed".
If he just said the quote I started this comment with in that post then all would be dandy, but him not saying it makes it seem like the inferred "There is no problem with Twitch" is correct when people read PS's post because many people don't know how straightforward he is and that is why I think a lot of people are having a negative view on his post.
I will also follow my own reasoning and state that I like PS, and a lot of people attack him for dumb reasons, but in this scenario I was annoyed that he didn't make it more clear in his post and knew people would make a lot of dumb negative comments toward him because of it.
Yeah even in his last statement on it after clarifying that 'nothing is happening' is not what he thinks, he goes back to 'nothing is happening' lol you can see Devon tempted to circle again but he lets it go.
It's time to double think about everything he says, cause it's not a mishap, it's done on purpose. Not the first time too. It feels like he's running a gigantic social experiment on his community and I'm weirded out that nobody notices it.
I feel like you would have to be very dumb to take "There is no Twitch Apocalypse" as "There is no problem on Twitch". It's like people are out to get him trying to read between the lines to find something that doesn't exist and crucify him over it.
@@onam3000 why are you saying this when Devon mentioned in this conversation multiple times that he took that as what Thor meant and that is what many people are going to take it to mean?
@@TankHealzDps I think Devin said that before he realized Thor's definition of adpocalypse is much narrower. Thor just means what he says no more no less and doesn't like jumping into conclusions without strong evidence. Devin showed him evidence.
I agree with Thor on how ridiculous the overreaction to the situation is by certain streamers, but doubting Richard Lewis' reporting has always been a bad move historically speaking.
''There is no war in Ba Sing Se''
Thor not realizing that he’s in an extremely niche part of twitch that doesn’t pay the best is so funny to me a lot of people have data to prove their not getting the same ad revenue and a few advertisers have just disappeared overnight
Do you even realize what you're saying? He had to push for twitch to make the category he streams in, I'm pretty sure he knows it's niche 💀💀
Don't tell me he is actually arguing the I don't believe it till I see it myself with such confidence. That's wild
thor instead of saying my b i was wrong just played dumb for 2 hours and went in circles
25:06 the vibe I’m getting kind of seems like Devin is a scientist and Thor is a monk. Devin is using data to try and project outwards and prepare proactively for the likely potential future, Thor is kind of like “anything can happen between now and then, therefore I will react based on the circumstances as they come”. Neither are incorrect, but it’s interesting to note how from one perspective, notably Devin’s it seems presumed that one can accurately predict the future and act based on that, while from Thor’s one cannot accurately predict the future and can only react to events as they happen, both being views with merit.
I can understand Devin’s POV and how it can even feel like Thor is being nit-picky and finicky, but if we don’t read into what Thor is saying beyond what he has said, he is making sense. One could make a case for Thor being able to communicate his points in a way that’d be more clear for the average reader, perhaps with some context as to where he’s coming from, but arguably that is unnecessary, as those interested or able to understand already have the means to find out, and those uninterested won’t bother anyhow.
An interesting compromise could be not reacting unnecessarily to the information, but having extra revenue streams, and general preparations in case of events like an adpocalypse actually coming to fruition, but that’s more of a general life approach as opposed to an adpocalypse specific approach.
Either way, really cool and fascinating to see two wildly differing perspectives on these matters interact in an amicable manner. It even challenged my own biases and listening skills, fruit for thought. Thanks Devin and Thor! :)
Might edit this comment if my view changes throughout the discussion though, idk.
I don't enjoy the way PS treats a "potential situation", like yes people obviously shouldn't jump ship out of irrational panic... but like, wouldn't you want to educate and prepare yourself for the worst case?
Nobody anticipates to get robbed or mugged at any given moment in public on a day to day, that's paranoia. It can still happen though, so why wouldn't you choose to be prepared for plausibility instead of being a victim to it?
the "ex-homeless guy" already forgot that for some people Twitch is their entire livelihood and they don't have spare money to invest and be fine in case they need to move. It's grossly irresponsible. Even if it would end up never happening, people definitely should be prepared for the possibility.
Yeah Thor clearly emphasized the importance of being on multiple platforms for this reason. He's well aware of the risk of it happening, he's just fed up with other streamers acting like they're already "getting robbed".
The problem starts with Twitch never having enforced their tos on tags ever, which made it turn in to a top in category meme for the big streamers and destroyed all credibility of it.
PirateSoftware is again talking around things that are totally clear. Twitch is at a point where they have to get rid of the terror talk and hatespeech or they are getting crushed. A lot of streams violate multiple countries laws with hatespeech or platforming terrorists, advertisers will have to take action and have.
Another thing i want to add while im still listening so idk if itll come up but most advertisers plan their ad spend at least a month out if not to January at this pont in the year we might not see the fall out till January or February.
One thing I love doing on twitch is going into the Retro category and counting how many streams of Malcolm in the Middle, Star Trek, full movies and more are running that day, most in Spanish. I wonder if the copyright holders even know, considering how relatively few people retro has and how you'd have to browse the category to see it.
My issue is i view the way pirate software is talking about twitch is seemingly the same as when hasan said russia isnt invading ukraine while all the warning lights were going off. He very well might be correct but it just seems like hes ignoring everything except the most obvious sign of his immediate income not changing
There is no forest fire as the trees behind my house are not on fire.
I'm only a little bit of the way in but I'm getting frustrated no one has used the analogy of a tornado watch vs a tornado warning
Good talk about this.
Always down to chat more.
Updating the burrito index again at the end of the month and bringing it back to a standard thing for the community.
So far we're seeing a 6% increase in adrev for November over October but we're not done with the month yet so it's incomplete data.
We should chat again either at the end of the month or end of the year about what data comes through.
Assuming payouts to creators is directly correlated to ad spending monthly/weekly/daily or the like and not a static amount per quarter. Its not really crazy that the month containing black friday and cyber monday saw an increase in revenue november over october. This does not support your point.
@@skabadoo255 That's solved with seasonal adjusted analysis. Also, it would still prove his point, because advertisers would still have confidence in the platform to deliver business their way.
Love you Thor!!!! Awesome to see two bright people discuss a platform they both care for.
you sucked lol
while I will never forgive you for cutting off Niarja and ruining my JF routes I agree we should keep having more awesome discussions for the betterment of the galaxy as a whole
I am just a dude on YT, but have done a thing or two in the business world have worked in a number of industries. To give an analogy this is a conversation between the hands and the eyes. Same body but different things they care about. This is an example of why things are difficult, everyone has different concerns and thinking everyone needs to have their concerns. The real lesson of this conversation is to start where you agree then you build out your personal views. This builds a collaboration that builds everyone's knowledge.
this based boosted pirate guy doesn't seem to quite understand what Devin is saying.
Is PirateSoftware intentionally being obtuse?
It seems he was saying he's already prepared through constant diversification and advocates for doing so against any possible event, rather than any specific event. Even Devin mentioned he's likely going to be fine because of his size. Devin's comment about this hurting midsized, less diversified streams seems to be something pirate isn't interested in (at this moment). This seems somewhat valid, as if creators followed best practices, they would be prepared as well, so ps has taken a stance on how to protect yourself. On the other hand, Devin seems to either have more empathy for these smaller channels, or believes they're crucial for the overall health of the platform and it's worth it to take a more active role in protecting them. If you're making decisions for your own business in an unpredictable market, these are both valid lenses. (At an argument level, I'm not adressing the tweet)
When i was an ad buyer, we thought pulling back too early might severely hurt performance for what seems like no reason. It's generally been a good idea to go all in while you can with extreme vigilance that things can change any second and respond accordingly. Secondarily, we watch for new opportunities to change what we're doing.
I think Thor is very triggered by Dan in this situation, so he's become very thick-headed. That's a shame
You'd block someone for calling you a racist too lol
@@potatoplayer420 Do you have the link to that tweet by any chance? I've been trying to find it
@@burnout3373 I deleted Twitter recently. He inferred that pirate was calling him an "uppity J*w", and put those words within quotation marks, which made it seem as though that was a direct quote from thor
@@potatoplayer420 Jesus he is unhinged
@@burnout3373 Yea he's generally insufferable and kind of just a bad person
Thor is engaging with this topic in the most cringe way possible. It honestly seems like he's intentionally acting obtuse in order to win an argument. His entire point rests on him saying "well we just can't know anything, cause it hasn't happened yet". Devin then tells him that this is certainly going to happen cause there are numerous advertisers that have paused ads. Thor's response remains the same, which is "well it hasn't hit me yet, so it's not real". Nice man! Super good faith engagement with the substance of the conversation!!!
Edit: Oh god, it gets even worse. Thor then makes the claim, "well I can't control how people will interpret my message, and technically I'm correct". Lil bro, if tons of people are misunderstanding your message, then maybe your message is just shit. Language is imprecise. Communication thru language always has tons of implications along with it. You'd never go ask a friend "hey, are you hungry" and then walk away when they answer yes. The obvious implication of that question is that you want to go eat with them. Your tweet is clearly implying that everything is perfectly OK with Twitch. There's evidence that it isn't. Choosing to ignore that evidence and then proclaiming that your statement is "technically" right is hollow and meaningless.
What Thor fails to realize is that he isn't just showing the numbers. He is adding his interpretation of them. And as soon as he does, it's not 100% facts as he claims, there's a bias
It's true. There is no Adpocalypse when Kai runs 12 ad's every 15 minutes back to back 🤣
"Advertisers have pulled ads" is information, not data. If that results in an actual fall in ad revenue, then that will be data.
*Checks dashboard for tags*
all my custom tags except the English one are missing ...
*confusion intensifies*
The video starts at 39:14. Once the first back-and-forth is resolved, the rest of the video is great. (The first topic ends at
42:54 if you've already seen enough of it).
Piratesoftware conflating objective conclusions with subjective conclusions because of subjective reasoning, sprinkled with using fear attempting to subjugate a self-fulfilling prophecy. A little use of motte-bailey as well.
Devon, I don't know you well but you did great here. You don't need to coddle him so much to still respect him, it's actually a little of the opposite. Seriously, what is the takeaway if it is coming, for sure, or happening, for sure? Be prepared. Are you harmed from taking this approach? Now compare the opposite, what if you wait until... Not only the writing is on the wall... but the ship is sinking? Do you prepare then? Take care and thank you.
These conversations are great, but I think they would be better if we could see Thor on screen. The non-verbal communication shown through his facial movements may help with the combative chatters.
So certain tags got demonetized. Let's assume those tags are X% of all streams. If some advertisers pull out of twitch, AND those advertisers represent Y% of advertisers (in terms of money). If the Y% is around or close to the X% mentioned before, the other tags would not see a meaningful difference.
So the conversation is more of a comparison between the X and Y. And this can be quite tricky to approach without the actual numbers that twitch would never share. There are too many things to take into consideration to get the correct info, for example :
- streamers change the content of their stream would decrease the X% even if no further advertisers pull out.
- The advertisers that pulled out are the ones that would pull out in January anyway, so the impact will only be seen in post February
- The conversation about adpocalypse causing the change in the X or Y.
- A third party decision or change (like a new law, a controversy, competition from another provider...) makes an impact on the Y.
-....
there's a hurricane on the way to your house in about 3 days. But it's not pouring rain outside RIGHT NOW so there is no reason to worry about flooding.
There is no hurricane *waves hand*
that was the best "wait, lemme get the popcorn" stream EVER !
Any notice over the past 48 hrs that twitch advertisements have been running longer on some channels? Maybe it's just me.
22:30 it's like fighting someone who doesn't think human cause climate change is real. "since it hasn't effected me RIGHT NOW it must not be real"
It's a little different. The adpocalypse is more like a hurricane that people are complaining has hit their house and destroyed their roof before it has even made landfall or rained. He's saying "hey it might be termites or something else so research it because the hurricane isn't here." He's not saying the adpocalypse is 100% coming because he has seen journalists inflate issues before and until Devin has given him concrete evidence like saying Chase is pausing ads on the site, he hasn't heard any news site name a single ad that was pulling (honestly same here I just believed Devin before).
Climate change in this situation is more akin to Twitch handling bans and politics becoming worse and worse. The greenhouse gasses are getting crazier and crazier as the political content borders more and more on the extreme and Twitch isn't properly managing any of it. The adpocalypse is just a mega storm that's bigger than usual due to the climate change in twitch that threatens to destroy the infrastructure and trust of twitch island.
rhis was the worst example you could find
we have a lot of pretty graphs and reliable hard data that proves climate change and its manmade component, hell temperatures are changing RIGHT NOW
we have anonymous insiders, rumors and devin saying "trust me bro" that supports an adpoclypse is soon to come
hard data vs no hard data, you missed piratesoftware's whole argument.
The combination of Thor being so confident even when hes wrong, and the stupid bass boosted filter to make his voice sound manly are such an oddly funny combination
It's crazy how he got all the streamers at Twitch con and other IRL appearances to apply the filter on his voice too!
@@cqpzg he voice trains
@@cqpzg I mean, it's pretty clear his normal stream mic is bass boosted. His appearance on the streamer awards from 9 months, from 2 different mics, shows that. I personally like the non-bass boosted mic more, you can hear the inflections on his voice better, and it seems not as tiresome to hear.
@@Tearatom95 i think it could be both he just uses a default yeti mic, but yeti mics if i remember correctly and other mics can come with built in bass boosting, and he also turns up the gain and speaks quieter to not wear his voice out on 12 hr streams which will also contribute to it
It sounds like he doesn't care about if it affects anyone as long as it doesn't affect him everyone should just be quiet. He also misrepresents the UA-cam adpocalypse.
What a waste of time Thor is always giving bad takes and doesn't even care about what he is talking about, what a spoiled bratt
This was such an amazing conversation!!
If anyone found the debate frustrating, stick around for the second half, at which point the conversation stops being combative and they have an interesting discussion of the twitch ad platform. This was my first exposure to PirateSoftware, and I ultimately came away with thinking he's an insightful and intelligent guy, even though I do think Devin is correct, given his experience.
Timestamp?
@@Jackolantirn 1:09:40 onward roughly. Also, there are several more hours not included in this video (Devin said he's making a separate vid, or you can look up the twitch VOD) where PirateSoftware talks about his content strategy and how he went from ~400 avg viewers to 15000 in about a month, among other things.
Their conversation after the Twitch bits was even better. Was listening to these two for a long time last night.
Yeah, the rest of the comments surprised me. They're both just sharing their experience as businesses owners and agree that they're talking about different aspects of the same topic.
The logic itself doesn't extend reasonably to any arbitrary business decision.
I make life decisions based on my income. Part of my income is variable and based on data, but I can't base all of it on data alone. Let's say I get paid bi-weekly. If my boss came up to me and said, "I'm reducing your hourly rate to $0. If you come in tomorrow and work, you will be paid $0." No reasonable person would wait for the data on this. By virtue of it being bi-weekly, if your boss said this right after payday, you're effectively going to be missing 4 weeks of income. 4 weeks you could have used to get a different job. At week 3, you can absolutely say, "There is no data driven evidence, that what my boss told me was the truth. The data is telling me that my payrate hasn't changed." - And that's an objectively true statement, fair enough. It's still bad analysis. Not all analysis is data driven, unfortunately.
Great analysis, thank you! Could you help me with something unrelated: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?
Wow a talk with Devin and Pirate, a video I never knew I needed.
This discussion is pretty frustrating to listen to because they are both discussing different things. Thor is just saying that all the people claiming that they lost money because advertisers pulled out are wrong, and they are losing money because of the tags or losing views. Which he is right about and Devin admits to it, the advertisers pulling out won't be a visible effect until later on. But the writting is on the wall that there will be an effect, and Thor admitis to it too. The thing is, Thor's clearly referring to The Adpocalypse as streamer losing ad revenue because of the advertisers pulling out, while Devin refers to The Adpocalypse as the fact that advertisers are pulling out.
They are both correct about things, while discussing different things and referring to a word as two different things. It gets frustrating as hell to see them disagree in something they agree.
I really dont know where streamers get this supreme ego god complex all knowing never wrong attitude from.
There is no adocalypse in Ba Sing Se
I can't agree with thor's argument in the beginning of the video mostly because I trust devin's dataset more. And no, both can't be right at the same time.
Twitch needs rewind and skip ads for viewers after 2 or 3 ads or, depending on the amount they (the viewer) get, allow the streamer to still get paid by the ad after 2-3 ads were played before being skipped
This was such a great conversation between these two. Happy to see it uploaded the next day (instead of a week later) to catch what I missed.
The problem with having a stance that "Nothing's wrong on *my* side, with *my* data" is that it's such an insular mindset and falls apart at some point on a case-by-case basis or under more scrutiny than a cursory glance. If you see markets talking about a general global recession because of a market crash, just because you aren't seeing the price of goods effect you *right then and there*, doesn't mean you should be oblivious to the signs. I don't mean to sound extreme here, but Thor's stance is unironically the same reasoning people use to hand-wave or avoid legitimate discussions about climate change because "Well the weather's been ok where I live and from my life experience, what does it matter that people who are in the field say there are noticeable factors proving otherwise? Everything's fine".
4:37
didnt Twitch stop doing the special contracts with top streamers in the 2021-2022 time frame?
as in they ended this practice, its just now partnership.
No the fire hasn't burnt down the city yet. By the time it gets there it's already devoured the forest and surrounding towns.
Nice of you to platform a small up and coming streamer ❤