Fractured markets: the big threats to the financial system | FT Film
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- Опубліковано 28 кві 2024
- Interest rates are rising; easy money is over; the cracks are showing. UK pensions were the first big explosion. FT experts and financial industry insiders examine where the next big threats to the global financial system lie and explain why when the tide goes out, we can see who is swimming naked.
Produced, directed and edited by Daniel Garrahan
#markets #inflation #investing #finance #bonds #debt #centralbanks #interestrates #easymoney #federalreserve #bankofengland #bank #ecb #europeancentralbank #bankofjapan #financialstability #cracks #marketfragilities #financialmarkets
00:00 - Fractured markets
00:55 - How we got here
05:21 - UK pensions: the first crack in the financial system
11:15 - Where is the next big blow-up?
14:20 - Cracks in the US Treasuries market
19:09 - The Japanese government bond market
22:47 - Reasons to be cheerful?
24:04 - The outlook for 2023
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I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2024, we'll start to see more market diversification. I'm hoping to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks this year. Hope to make millions in 2024.
Since risk is at an all-time high right now, perhaps you should be a little more patient but remember the bigger the risk the bigger the results. Alternatively, you can consult a trained financial expert for strategy.
No doubt, having the right plan is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take till Q3 2024.
who is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?
Her name is “Vivian Carol Gioia” can't divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
I copied her whole name and pasted it into my browser; her website appeared immediately, and her qualifications are excellent; thank you for sharing.
I don’t know how but you’ve managed to package an unbiased analysis that is more entertaining than the sensationalized segment of economic and financial news. Thank you for your efforts to be the signal and not the noise. I understand that the economy is in currently in a downturn and that we must wait for the stock market to recover in order to break even and make a profit.
As hard as it may sound you can plan for the recession. If you are working, find extra work and get an Invest--advisor. Protect your deposits by having enough cash in short term fixed income. Then cut your expenses. Minimal insurance, cut utilities.
That's why I make it a point to speak with a financial counselor before choosing any investments. I've been using one since the pandemic. using profit-oriented tactics and minimizing risk as a buffer against inevitable downtrends. In addition, they have access to insider knowledge and analysis, making failure virtually impossible for them. I made almost $700K after working with an advisor for over two years.
Can you leave your investment planner information and how i can reach out here? I need it badly
She is Eileen Ruth Sparks, my consultant. Since then, she has devoted section and leave attention to safeguards that I have been keeping an eye out for. You can locate information about her online, on the off chance that you're interested. I made no regrets about substantially adhering to their exchange strategy.
sincerely thank you I looked up Eileen Ruth Sparks on the internet and was awestruck by how qualified she was; I contacted her since I need all the help I can get with canning. I've just scheduled a call.
I advise you to invest in stocks to balance out your real estate, Even the worst recessions offer wonderful buying opportunities in the markets if you're cautious. Volatility can also result in excellent short-term buy and sell opportunities. This is not financial advice, but buy now because cash is definitely not king right now!
True, the idea of a portfolio-coach used to sound generic, but a new study by investopedia actually found that demand for portfolio-coaches sky-rocketed by over 41.8% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounters, I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch, I've raised over $900k from an initially stagnant reserve of $250K all within 14months.
@@martingiavarini I need a guide so i can salvage my port-folio due to the massive dips and come up with better strategies. How can one reach this advisor?
@@hermanramos7092 Big Credits to “Catherine Morrison Evans” she has a web presence, so you can simply search for, there are some others but it might be difficult to get them, but Catherine has been a good guide through the year.
@@martingiavarini Thanks, I just googled her name and her website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I'm going to book a call with her and let you know how it goes.
PTDR
The financial system has been artificially pumped for over a decade to ensure big pockets were lined; and now those same hands will make a fortune in the largest transfer of wealth in human history by shorting it on the way down. Inflation does have a roll, but that's to keep everyone panicked, and focused on their bills and expenses, rather than focus on the capital crimes of politicians and corporations,I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $338k stock portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market??
Find stocks with yields that exceed the market and stocks that, at the very least, follow the long-term market trend. However, you should get guidance from a financial advisor if you want to create a successful long-term plan...
I agree, I've been in constant touch with an Investment advisor for approximately 17 months. These days, it's really easy to buy into trending stocks, but the task is determining when to sell or hold. That's where my advisor comes in, to help me with entry and exit points , I've accrued over $337k from an initially stagnant reserve of $148K all within 18 months.
@@duane_29 I need a guide so i can salvage my port-folio due to the massive dips and come up with better strategies. How can one reach this advisor??
@@DavidRiggs-dc7jk Having an advisor is essential for portfolio diversification. My advisor is CHRISTINE JANE MCLEAN who is easily searchable and has extensive knowledge of the financial markets...
@@duane_29 Thank you for this amazing tip. I just looked the name up, wrote her and scheduled a call...
Inflation is far more harmful to individuals than a collapsing stock or property market because it directly affects people's cost of living, which they immediately feel. It is not surprising that the current market sentiment is extremely pessimistic. In today's economy, assistance is critical if we are to survive.
Right, I've been in constant touch with a fiinancial-analyst since covid . You know these days it's really easy to buy into trending stock`s, but the task is determining when to buy or sell . My advisorr decides entry and exit commands on my portfoliio, I've accrued over $550k from an initially stagnant reserve of $150K.
@@cloudyblaze7916 that's impressive!, I could really use the expertise of this advisors , my portfolio has been down bad....who’s the person guiding you
@@evitasmith6218you can't really know the full risk rate except you are a Pro. Reason I settled for advisory and guide from a stocks guru, “ELEANOR ANNETTE ECKHAUS”. Never been the same again with my holdings
Thank you for this tip. it was easy to find Eleanor Annette your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
I’m from the government and I’m here to help …
Great video! A lot of folks have been going on about a December rally and said stocks that would be experiencing significant growth these festive season, any idea which stocks this may be? I just sold my home in the Boca Grande area and I’m looking to remunerate a lump sum into the stock market before stocks rebound, is this a good time to buy or no?
transportation, e-commerce among other sectors are expected to experience growth, but who knows, the market has been a basket of surprises.
@Craig Daniels Found her, I wrote her an email and scheduled a call, hopefully she responds, I plan to start 2023 on a woodnote financially.
Imaging that we are in 2006-7. Will it be the best time to put your money in the stock market? I don't think so for now.
Buddy you must own a roof...
Wall Street pitched so-called quality stocks with high profitability and low debt, as a kind of insurance against whatever the economy might throw at you. Quality stocks have underperformed the S&P500 this year, waiting may not be the best decision for investors. It might sound basic or generic, but getting in touch with a financial adviser was how I was able to outperform the market and raise a profit of $350,000 since Jan 2022. For me, its the most ideal way to jump into the fin-market these days.
It’s precisely at times like these that investors need to be on guard against the next certainty. You don’t have to act on every forecast, hence i will also suggest investors to get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
@@ReidCoffman1 please who is the financial adviser that assist you with your investment and if you don't mind, how do i get in touch with them?
@@AshtonGrace >My Financial Advisor is Autumn Lynzi Smith I found her on a CNBC interview where she was featured and reached out to her afterwards. She has since provide entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can look her up online if you care supervision. I basically follow her market moves and haven’t regretted doing so.
@@ReidCoffman1 I just looked up Autumn Lynzi Smith online and researched her accreditation. She seem very proficient, I wrote her detailing my Fin-market goals and scheduled a call.
I love when my news is presented with dramatic background music
😄😄
With the current problem around the world today I think it's best everyone invest more in digital asset than Saving in banks, anyone you can manage don't live a life with no investment . Just my thoughts
Everybody is concerned about the market going down but refusing to take advantage of it. The best decision I ever made was to investing regardless of the market conditions. I made over 100k. USD with an capital of 5k.USD within 3 months. Trust me guys the market is still very much profitable
Things you can invest In
👇👇
Real estate
Stock
Crypto
Bonds
@@alexgorham7464 Stocks, bitcoin are falling and bond yields are rising, but markets still don't seem convinced, the Federal Reserve will pursue plans to keep increasing interest rates until inflation is under control. I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $117k stock portfolio, what's the best way to take advantage of this bear market?
@@dungmasibay1613 Most time having knowledge or insight about a particular activity can as well be a pleasing exercise. I can boldly say that the digital market is one of the profitable money exchange services that elevates investors and their financial status.
@@dungmasibay1613 The first step to successful investing is figuring out your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but is very advisable vou make use of a professional like I did. I invested in cryptocurrencies and l'm making a huge profits but this was only possible when I started working with en expert
Always dramatic yet very very accurate
The market trend can turn around very quickly. In fact, the indexes often switch from a bear market to a bull market when the news is at its worst and the mood of investors is at its lowest point. I read an article of people that grossed profits up to $150k during this crash, what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist?
.This is still a window-shopping market. But there are a lot of intriguing stocks to watch from a variety of sectors. You don’t have to act on every forecast, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
When it comes to investing in stocks, one of the biggest mistakes investors can make is throw in the towel right when we hit a bear market bottom and the indexes find support and start to surge. I've been in touch with a coach for awhile now mostly cause I lack the depth knowledge and mental fortitude to deal with these recurring market conditions, I nettd over $220K during this dip, that made it clear there's more to the market that we avg joes don't know
@@checkforme234 I’ve actually been looking into advisors lately, the news I’ve been seeing in the market hasn’t been so encouraging. who’s the person guiding you?.
@@lawerencemiller9720 Personally I work with Eileen Ruth Sparks a registered Investment advisor. Quite renowned, search her name to get in touch.
@@checkforme234 I just looked up the broker you suggested on Google and I'm incredibly impressed with her credentials, so thank you for sharing. I'm going to send her an email right away
After the market's Significant gains in the last few years after the worst pandemic , officially entered a new
bear market earlier this year, but .My greatest concern is how to recover from all these economic and global
troubles and stay afloat especially with the political power tussle going on in
the US and for sure my
diversification process but still on fence about the market future
Gold standard
Dont underestimate history - do you think it's worse now than during the cold war or 50 years ago? The market rallied then for decades when the world was 10x worse. When you see an opportunity you have to take a risk.
TateUncertainty... it took me 5 years to stop trying to predict what bout to happen in market based on charts studying, cause you never know. not having a mentor cost me 5 years of pain I learn to go we’re the market is wanting to go and keep it simple with discipline.
@@debstrodovan The one effective technique I'm confident nobody admits to using, is staying in touch with an Investment-Adviser. Based on firsthand encounter, I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch, I've raised over $700k since 2017. Just bought my 3rd property for rental. Credit to Yvonne Annette Lively.. my Investment-Adviser.
Thank u for posting longer videos so we can get the complete picture, and not just some snippets
Incredibly up to date with what’s currently happening with SVB
Inflation HAS come down. The supply chain is restoring. What Katie Porter’s Congressional hearings revealed, is that over 50% of so-called “inflation” isn’t the result of normal market forces AT ALL. Rather, it’s the result of PRICE GOUGING MONOPOLIES. The solution to that, isn’t higher interest rates. This isn’t the 1970’s or early 80’s. The solution is to BREAK UP these monopolies, and increase competition.
Sorry for my answer, but I never read such a stupid opinion...
@@josepedro8968 Perhaps you missed the Congressional hearings, where what I said, was backed up by objective facts. In America, we have a bunch of negative monopolies. There are monopolies in bread making (no, seriously), diaper manufacturing (thus the weird crisis there), trucking monopolies, supermarkets themselves, silicon chip manufacturing, a number of baseline housing construction supplies, etc. We would do well to support REAL capitalism, and increase competition, by breaking up such monopolies, and thereby advantaging the consumer. If you’ve been price gouging your fellow Americans during a global crisis, you’re no better than war profiteers during WWII, and we punished the hell outta them. No reason why we can’t do that again.
The world would blow up in very little pieces without nothing else left (including humans) before the corporations responsable for these volatile times are make accountable. Conflict is the only comodity that will increase in the years to come.
Excellent report very insightful
Timely. Only real journalists left are FT
Excellant research , giving a clearer picture of what is happening in the bond markets
Thank you FT. Excellent content.
Congratulations on your excellent analysis of the crisis of the global financial system and its big threats...
Thank you for sharing this content!!! Excellent information and a recent updates on the state of our financial system is greatly appreciated!
The World is running on air!
Literally!
The best comment ever
To the journalist and people who put together this video, phenomenal job
Indeed, very well done.
Insightful and concerning.. great videi
Since the start of 2022, we have been in a recession, but major media outlets and governments around the world refused to acknowledge it. We must exercise wisdom and intelligence. Since knowledge is power, I want the entire family to be strong! I recently bought some LibertonCorp. We appreciate you keeping us informed during these uncertain times.
The issue is unemployment is too low for a normal recession. We're in a weird economic situation due to inflation. Because inflation is so high, workers demand more money, employers don't to hire expensive workers but want lots of cheap workers so there's a huge amount of low paid jobs. Workers threaten to leave so employers pay them high wages to stay, but that means both low-paid and high-paid employers can't get employees. Also, due to inflation, all workers are struggling with cost of living so they aren't spending, but they haven't lost their jobs. Plus, landlords keep demanding higher rents meaning employees can't afford to spend in the economy.
Best way to fix this, build lots of housing so people have more money to spend.
Excellent - thank you - I’m
64 and have my pension pot in cash for last 9m but I’m still concerned that my pension provider could go belly up
I actually feel that the U.S bond market is doing excellent. The plan is Genius.
Great video. ❤😊❤😊
Here in North Dakota guilts are not bonds, but castrated pigs.
Oh, no 😲, housing prices which were jacked 40% by Fed policy over the last two years might come under pressure. We wouldn’t want housing to become affordable again, now, would we?
Desperately need to incentivize 3 things to make shelter sustainable: LESS regulation/pushback against new construction, MORE home/apt/condo construction, and MORE mass transit to connect new homes. If new homes were cheaper to build and plentiful coming available, current homeowners would be forced to slash prices.
I thought the same thing when she said that 🤣
They won"t be more affordable once you"re going into a crippling recession. Housing market is going down so is your income or the banks willingness to borrow you money.
exactly, what we need is housing to drop 50 percent in value. Houses aren't suppose to be an investment like the stock market yeilding a 10 percent return.
@@thisiscrazy4122 the last 12 years responsible savers have been punished while money printing + excessively risky behavior has turned the real estate market into a casino. Buying a home should not require that you strike it rich on bitcoin. Affordability is near an all time low now. The prices have to go down and speculators need to exit real estate.
Many thanks for the nice shot of Crosby beach at 00:48.
What am I saying ? There are several great shots of Crosby beach and Seaforth container terminal.
The system turned parasitic on itself.
Why is the UK particularly at risk from inflation? Could it be because there are a larger number of people on index-linked pensions (both public and private) in the UK, compared to other countries?
How we got here is unimportant. Where next is all that matters.
While everyone is focused on BTC, ETH, or any other top alt coin and playing defense, they are missing out on high-quality projects set to launch on CEX. For example, LibertonCorp will go mainstream soon, with 10x-20x possible even during this bear market, but only a few people are aware of this.
what exactly is LibertonCorp? and how will it rise so much?
Pump and dump
the ONLY way pension funds & banks can make solid returns..is by leverage. YES, when the shxt hits the fan..they expect the FED/CBs to bail them out
I just love privatizing the gains and socializing the loses😍
It cannot get any better🥰
I detect a hint of sarcasm in the comment... 🤑
Spot on
@eric kanter The OP loves it.
it's far more complex than that. There is no world without leverage. So get used to it, though in a regulated set of systems in the free world, at least.
Can we get a 2023-2024 update/reaction video to this?
There are so many bot comments on here with the same formula so BE CAREFUL:
Bot 1 - "How do you make money in the markets? I'm so bad at this"
Bot 2- "Oh its a lot easier with a professional, I won't tell you her name in this response though"
Bot 1 - "Could you please share?"
Bot 2 - "Yes, look up XYZ, they are very well known and apparently clairvoyant"
Bot 3 - "Wow I know of them, they're very popular and a leader in the industry"
Bot 1 - "Thanks for the info! Gonna turn this ship around and stop browsing Wall Street Bets soon!"
The main thinking and ideas and methods that have been developed in modern times to grow an economy (the human activity of learning, innovating, producing and exchanging goods and services) is to encourage people, businesses and governments to go into debt. People known as economist have invented methods, come up with theories and written books about this and even won awards and convinced our leaders that is the best ways to grow and operate a nation’s economy. The main concept behind this thinking is that when someone or a business or the government itself wants to borrow money, since only a few people or businesses are really interested or willing to lend their money, even when offered good interest rates, and also because there is a lack of trust of ever being paid back, the trick is to allow some businesses (such as banks) to print or create this money by simply entering numbers into accounts or computers for the loan. When the loan is paid back, the money for the loan that was created is destroyed or deleted from the system but the banks get to keep the interest that was paid by the borrower for the loan.
Yes, at first, I did not believe this either since it does not seem like a legitimate way to do business. This is not what I was taught about money in my younger days and although this information is available, both banks and governments seem to be working as a partnership to try to make this information difficult to access. They also try to keep it out of public discussions and when questioned about it deflect the questions by giving ambiguous answers. I actually thought that when banks lent money, they would lend out the money from people that deposited their money at the bank and the bank would charge a higher interest rate to the borrower than it paid to the depositor and that is how the bank made money. This is what the banks, and I would also suggest governments, would like you to believe.
Although we may not all agree with some of the taxes or the tax rates governments come up with to punish or reward certain types of business activities and are never really happy about paying taxes, the money governments collect in taxes is much less than what governments “borrow” from banks. I put “borrow” in quotes because banks do not have this money, they create it when governments take out loans and go into debt. Governments can also create their own money instead of having the banks create it for them, but other than cutting the banks out of billions in interest, which I think would be a good thing since governments would not have to pay interest or pay back loans. In addition to governments having the authority to create money to increase the money supply, governments can also destroy money to reduce the money supply but, I do not think giving governments full control of the money supply would make much difference when the economy is based on growth instead of being based on sustainability.
So, the more debt there is, the more money there is, and the more growth there is in the economy. The name of the game is to try and make as much money as you can by “lending” other people money. Once again, I put lending in quotations because the name of game is really try to create as much money as you can by putting as many people or businesses as you can into debt. The better you are at doing this, the more interest you will collect and the more money you will make and the people and businesses that do this are the ones that really have the power to rule the nation.
To add more fuel to this fire, you now allow all the loan instruments that make up this debt to be traded, bought and sold in a casino style environment and you allow the players, who try to outsmart each other, to “borrow” more money (allow banks to create more money) to play in this casino. And you also allow players to sell these loans short so not only will they buy a loan if they think the value of the loan will increase and they can sell it for more than the bought it for but they can also sell a loan if they think the value of the loan will decrease and then buy it back at a lower price. It is just a game among these players. It is the same thing that will happen if you give an 18 year old kid a Ferrari and make them think that they can drive it like Formula One drivers. Yes, it will only be a matter of time before the kid will crash the Ferrari, and they might even end up hurting themselves along with others.
The people that borrowed money for a home mortgage or car or other assets are not in the casino playing the game. They are obligated to pay back the money they borrowed and if they default, they loose the asset they bought along with whatever money they put in. Their only hope is that the asset they bought will become worth more than they paid for it, which is possible. However, if they are not in a position to hold on to the loan for the long term (could be 25 to 35 years) and return all the money they borrowed, the time on the clock for this opportunity will come to an end before the majority of them will ever have a chance to get out.
Until economists, businesses and governments change the rules of this game, there will always be boom and bust cycles, and depressions and recessions in a nation’s economy and there will always be a large wealth gap between the population.
One of the first things that needs to change is the thinking that an economy always has to grow for a nation to be powerful and successful and that when the economy is not growing there is a problem and the nation is failing. The main concept and thinking for a nation’s economy should be that the economy be based on sustainability, not on growth! After all, there are limits to growth on a planet with a finite size. Any economy will have periods of growth and periods of contraction or decline, In an economy based on sustainability, the periods of contraction or decline should be just as prosperous, innovative and profitable as the periods of growth and not be considered a problem or failure.
If economist, businesses and governments can figure this out, I am sure there will be some noble prizes awarded and the world’s nations would be able to make significant progress towards reducing wealth inequalities, We may even be able to reduce crime within nations which would reduce the cost and effort required for law enforcement. And if we really get lucky, we may even be able to increase the trust among nations so that we can reduce the cost of military spending and intelligence operations and we may even be able to agree to stop manufacturing weapons that can wipe out most of the life on this planet and make some significant progress towards peace and fairness for all of humanity.
Its a taste of things to come i think
It's not about a recession really, it's about the debt cycle it seems to me
What goes up must come down, eh? You'd think the people in charge didn't go to elementary school 🤣
So again everybody saved, nobody learned, nothing changed
Good film but ruined by the wretched background noise (I wouldn't call it music) Why do programme makers do this??
A really good video. I don't feel any better after watching it but, nevertheless, really good.
So annoying because I just started investing April 2021. Didn't get an opportunity to capitalise on the low interest rates because I turned legal investing age last year
Just keep steadily investing for decades and you'll think back thinking you were so lucky you could get loads of equity at a discount right at the start of your investing carreer.
Good to buy now though - cheap stocks
look on the bright side, you are still very young and have most of your life ahead to make smart investment decisions and make money. The market works in waves and in between crisis, there are always calm moments when money is cheap.
Just become a trader. Insane leverage, insane gains( *and losses* )
@@musazwane6049 You can learn to trade on UA-cam *lol*
Thanks from Ukraine!
Since the 2008 crisis the pay increase for nurse was meagre, I’m sure after this pandemic, war in Ukraine and possible or probable economic crisis in coming years ( hopefully not) will only going to hurt badly are the people like nurses. This is so irritating to think that the hardworking people always have to be receiving end.
😊😊
Very suggestive music
Oh no!
I mean, we cannot make the same mistakes again. But... we will. Central Banks will all be itching to put interest rates sub-1% again, and nothing we can do will stop them
2023 will be interesting. The question is how long can Powell and his ECB buddies maintain this hiking cycle without causing serious strain on the financial system.
@@ma2i485 honestly, I think we're already past that point. The whole financial system has been dependent on very cheap money for years, and it's not cheap anymore. The fallout from this is already raining down, and I don't reckon it'll stop anytime soon.
If we want to avoid this in future, I'd say interest rates should hover above 4-5% once this is over.
It’s not that Powell is “willing to tolerate a weaker stock market” - the stock market is artificially inflated thanks to low bond yields and currency devaluation since the Great Recession. Powell and others recognise we will have to face the reality of a stock market that is full of hot air, not vigour.
Great video but have to rematch the technical bits ..
The problem is leverage: financial companies taking risks with ordinary people's money. When a particular financial institution fails, they get saved with (wait for it...) ordinary people's money. What it feels like is that bailout after bailout are piled on our books and rich people stay rich and say "whoops". The language used is infuriating: "central banks had to restore stability", "systemic risk" how does a system that seems to do such a great job of siphoning wealth from the everyday shmo, suddenly become our wayward child every time they screw up? Not a single poor person needs a billionaire, but billionaires need legions of poor people.
Replace paper money with commodities i.E. gold and silver
So last time $h!t like this happened, it was September 11 and the war on Iraq. Then all of a sudden equity markets are at all time highs again. Should we just chill a little and buy the dip?
I want to read the full bank of america article
When countries lose their competitive edge, it's a negative on assets... Money moves to where it's most productive 🤔
This seems to ignore that rates were low because the system was not working. Why they are able to exclude elements of the system as exogenous, while deeming some moments in time as aberrant is revealing. The economy and the theories it is constructed are dysfunctional, utopian, and abject failues. But as soon as we exclude energy, ecology, workers, finance, debt, sovereigns, and the future, then everything will balance again and we can go back to ‘normal’.
In this game of shadows, we just don't know who's going to get hurt
Really a great compilation of commentary.
The real question is how did the Fed come to the conclusion that inflation would be transitory? Many, many very well respected mainstream economists warned that the Fed had to stop printing, that inflation was going to stick.
Monetary supply isn’t the only cause of inflation. It’s one of the factors.
The issue with economists is that they also are not sure of the consequences of future policy. Some may agree on one thing, some may disagree.
I’m fairly certain the fed has gotten things wrong and economists got things right, and vice versa, but the causes of inflation seem to be more complicated than just money printing. Supply chains were strained, Covid measures and pandemic effected supply and also demand, Covid relief affected demands, and international conflicts are effecting supply chains and costs of resources from oil to grain and fertilizer
I also wonder why they thought it was transitionary until it wasn’t
@@jtgd many economists have found that it is the main factor. But yes, in this case, there was a network of policies that resulted in the rich getting a whole lot richer in the last 2 years. They also got to stay home with a lot more time on their hands and new luxury desires, kept in relative luxury their assets appreciated 30-40% while they were serviced by a growing service underclass of delivery people and minimum wage grocery and target store workers who were getting poorer. Everyone could see exactly what was happening. Why couldn’t the Fed?
@@jtgd somehow top politicians managed to play the stock market as if they knew in advance *somehow*nthat Fed policy would goose the stock market.
Without Covid lockdowns in China and the Ukraine war, the transitory view would not have appeared as naive.
the fed doesnt "print" money. banks do when they loan out money using fractional reserve banking. fed determines the rate at which banks can loan out that money and lower rates = more loans = more printing.
Why wouldn't the price of oil keep going up? Oil just keeps getting more expensive to extract as easier to access oil deposits are depleted, AND demand just continues to increase because of how ubiquitous oil is in the modern global economy.
Nice material, but why in the world are you changing the scene/speaker every two seconds... That's not TikTok.
The new short attention span human, this will be a short recession.
@@howardsimpson489 😂
After a nightmarish 2022, shell-shocked investors have losses to recoup and plenty to ponder, as an inflation report and a raft of other data did little to change expectations that the Federal Reserve would likely continue hiking intrest rates even if the economy slows down, Which means more red ink for portfolios for the first quarter of year 2023. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $250k bond/stocck portfolio
I reckon you get in touch with an investment adviser, someone who’s been active before the 08' crash and other similar crashes, that gotta be your best bet in order to profit off this recession.
I agree, I was on the sideline for awhile observing, trying to figure out the best time to get in, that was before I came by a coach, commended by a pundit on Reddit, reluctant at first but I went ahead and got in touch with the coach, long story short, it's been 3years and counting and I've made over 1.5million dollars simply by following her guidance. I took a vacation to Bahamas this summer just to reward myself a little for the consistency lol
@@cloudyblaze7916 A coach sounds like a good idea, but how can I get a reliable one considering the nature of the market today?
@@legacymedia8468 The coach that guides me is Sharon Louise Count, it shouldn't be a hassle finding her seeing that she's actually quite popular, just search her name.
I used my web browser to look up SHARON LOUISE COUNT. She appears to be skilled at developing and expanding portfolios. She's SEC verified, manages over 1,644 portfolios, 10 years experience and her firm is rated 5 star. No disclosure. I scheduled a consultation with her.
U.S. derivatives market exposure is way higher than $125T
It's not just Inflation if Corporation's are raking in record profits that's price gouging.
LDI is basically selling volatility...The politicians messed up, but so did many institutional investors..
Should the decision makers held accountable for their recklessness? Why they get to keep their bonuses for earnings extracted of thin air?
this is it...this its..it....
"...This time I know its the real thing
And I cant explain what I'm feeling
I'm lost for words
I'm in a daze
Stumped and amazed
By your lovin'ways..."
It seems to me that we are not longer baking a bigger cake, instead we are using more yeast. And when its no longer enough we go "outside" and plunder
Definitely maximum financial pressure on the commons
Batten down the hatches and lock the doors!
Great video. More of this please.
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Interest rates are the same as in 2007. So that person interviewed who states that interest rates have been low for 2 decades and that's now over, doesn't know what they're talking about.
Non-economist here, but if inflation is 7-8% (which I don't believe; it must be higher), aren't real interest rates effectively still negative?
@@confidentlocal8600 Inflation is at ~2% annualized currently (look at MoM data). Therefore real rates are positive.
Energy Inflation -> Profit Inflation -> Wage Inflation?
That's price. Inflation is when greenbacks get less valuable (more full-of air, just like a balloon, hence the term)---we get more of it in the paycheck, with some lag. The numbers look better but it's just numbers. Cash saving looks the same but it has less value than it did.
What we can see in the UK over the next week is an interest rate hike of .25% or .50% . On basic history what you will see on Thursday is .25% . Good luck to the banks.
4:18 Lol, Central banks AGGRESSIVELY tightening rates
Since when 5% rate for 10% inflation is considered agressive? 😂
Which is important....the stock market or bond market?
Bond market is very important in the financial system without it nothing functions in the economy overall..that's where the cost of debt is set(loans/capital) and its where financial institutions(banks/hedge funds) access top tier collateral to support their leveraged trading activities.
@@ma2i485 do you think the Fed will let the stock market crash to save bond market? Thank you for your reply
@@marjorienavarro6337 the stock market needs the bond market so the FED will support both markets. Anyway the FED isn't in control of secondary markets...they just influence sentiment. So bullish bonds bullish stocks bullish Housing market..right everything is bearish because FED hawkishness.
Thanks for your explanation
???... What have the butt got to do with the trousers..?
Ehm - interesting thought - maybe don’t equate ‘getting out there again’ with ‘flying’.
It is what happened of course ( in so far as flying has started to increase again )
but getting out there again really is a nod to doing exciting outdoorsy stuff and there must have been vast amounts of non flying things people did, globally after covid.
Flying is habit of a minority - a privileged wealthy minority and it probably isn’t economically legit to illustrate ‘getting out there again’ with the habits of a wealthy minority.
I can hear Hugh Hendry and Jeff Snider tearing their hair out from here. What a lot of effort for such a poor result by Financial Times. I'm impressed.
Lol GME-brain
@@breadman7733 can't stop, won't stop 👊
amazing video. How does one develop expertise like these guys in FT?
Same question
Major in finance and economics
These people are not that impressive, note how they are .aonly just describing what has happened, it is easy to explain the past. The real skill is forecasting forward, very very few can do this well. Certainly no economist can.
great and high-quality content! very sensible, comprehensive and clear.
I will take the unpopular opinion and say that the world of higher rates and inflation in the end will be viewed a blip in what is an inevitable march lower to negative rates. Early indicators that predicted rapidly rising inflation are now showing it coming back toward central banks target. I think institutions like Financial Times are speaking way too soon
Hope so. I'm betting with tlt.
An only a few words about government debt...Rising ?
Excellent episode.
Our pension and retirement system doesn’t work like the uk with gilts, so the assumption this could happen anywhere isn’t necessarily true it’s spreading FUD.
What about printing cash???
They won't mention that (it's basically theft) nor seigniorage.
Over government spending in the US has caused inflation to run rampant and still in the midst of this disaster they just past another 1.4 trillion dollar spending spree.
If the US Treasury merged with the Federal Reserve and Goldman Sachs into one entity would anyone notice? Would asset prices / bond yields be any different?
Are we really so surprised at the rise of inflation. We added 40% more money to the system.
Where did everyone think that money will go to
The fact is that water doesn't flow up stream, but US has made the dollar flow up upstream with dire consequences for many including their own. Human world should be seen as one living body and money as blood to circulate to keep health of the body. This the only way to safety, and a benevolent global authority is essential...
Ain't that the truth. Glad I don't invest. But I own a house no debt and four kids with food in their belly. I did the complete opposite of what governments and banks told me to do. Hilarious
So the money management was chosen for risky economic strategies and then were trained to increase risk. Community money now managed with high and extreme risk no home budgets would contemplate yet we the people are forced to underight this risky economic mismanagement. The tide is going out and no one seems to have any clothes on! There is no conservative perspective in economic systems?
"so the uk pension market.."
*Trap instrumental plays to keep the youth engaged*
Stupid question as the pension funds are paying the fixed rate on an inflation swap with inflation increasing their inflation swaps are in the money why do they need to post collateral instead of receiving it?
For their riskier investments they need to sell to get liquidity to close on margin calls. But as they all sell assets at the same time it creates a buyers market pushing the value of each asset down so they needed to sell more
Sovereign debt at negative real interest rates is just another form of taxation. Sooner or later savers will figure out the game is rigged against them. Better to invest in ones own human capital and work later in life at higher rates of pay than to accumulate fixed income financial assets that deplete your purchasing power. If health is an issue buy LTD insurance.
@18:04 - "No Fed official has officially said that we need a recession to tame inflation, but all signs point to that being the case" - Hope all of us are ready for the big freeze! The winter chill is coming!
Flight to safety not to risk. Contradictory to say people will put money in risky US Treasury considering prior mentioned all the risk and detriments of holding US bonds now. I would rather buy more gold to protect my capital.