Unemployment Reached 'Critical Mass', Not Since 2008 Has This Happened | Danielle DiMartino Booth
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- Опубліковано 15 чер 2024
- Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research, discusses how the economy has reached a "critical mass" of unemployment and labor market deterioration. Follow her at this link to receive a 20% discount on the QI Research subscription: dimartinobooth.substack.com/M...
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*This video was recorded on May 22, 2024
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0:00 - Intro
1:30 - Recession landed
3:00 - Birth-death model
4:30 - Nonfarm payrolls
7:34 - Fed and rate cuts
12:10 - Refi risks and housing
17:00 - Sahm Rule
18:55 - Recession and markets
24:50 - What would cause financial crisis?
26:10 - Credit score inflation
27:45 - Economic outlook
32:10 - Living standards
#investing #economy #recession
The latest unemployment rate in the U.S. is 3.9%. Will this continue rising? Comment below and don't forget to subscribe!
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FOLLOW DANIELLE DIMARTINO BOOTH:
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Sure it's 4%
If you believe government data you’re a fool
Feels more like 20%
Imagine if they compared apples to apples i.e. REAL unemployment vs. the propaganda you're selling
2-yr & 10-yr did not uninvert, in fact they are far from that! How are we in a recession currently?
I work in IT. Lost my job last year and still haven’t found a new job. I have been doing deliveries for 6 months and I know for sure that I will not be able to find another job in IT. This is America now.
Don't put a lost job on your resume. Act like you still work there
Ya but what does "work in IT" actually mean? There are tons of barely-skilled ppl in IT. If you have actual skills you're working (Python, Rust, database, cloud, security, etc).
India my bro... India. it's not coming back.
I know a few ppl in that same boat. A.I. is affecting it I am SURE!
Nonsense.... getting offers still. Not as good as 2021 though.
I work at one of the major bankruptcy shops, everything she is saying is spot on...
But bankruptcy is not from losing your job it's from high inflation and the low wages and high health care premiums that most Americans make and don't even know it since trump was there savior and made America great abd Biden build back
Corporations control everything the laws the wages benefits continue to make historic profits yet the workers continue to suffer and suffer and suffer and suffer and no one does anything
U lying
@@DreamsOfBullRuns 🤣
Bankruptcy shop?
Well apparently she's been spot on with this for the last 3 years just like everyone else whose been calling for disaster.
🚨SILENT🚨DEPRESSION🚨
That’s so true
1yr from today, the revised stats will show that.
Silent recession. America is dying in silence
Danielle we all remember you telling us what was up months ago. Good job 👍
$5 for a toothbrush. Consumers are angry 😤
And made in China!
@@user-rl5wm1cm1kwith cancirogens
$1 = -$24.60
Folks don't see the value of a Dollar, only the price of the item.
People can live without toothbrushes, so corporations have no reason to artificially inflate their price.. it's healthy foods, housing, energy that they're price gouging people on, things people need.
Seriously does it cost more than 10 cents to make that toothbrush?
Danielle makes way more sense than Biden/Yellen/Powell.
She ALWAYS makes good sense. She has ENORMOUS common sense.
A 4-year-old has more common sense than Biden.
Not a great compliment. Even my dog makes more sense than them.
She's been making this call for 2 years.
@@rubicon3416 Pretty embarassing if she's wrong!
Danielle is one of my favorite guests on a David's show. Great interview, once again
I work for a giant corporation. We had 100k employees at the end of 2023. Now we have 98k. We also ramped up the layoff waves this week with the intent to get down to 90k employees by the end of 2024 and 85k employees by end of 2025.
Corporation name, please
I don’t know about the other guy but I work at Shell and we are cutting around 10-15% of our workforce this year
Wow a 10% reduction. Whoopity do. Companies do that every year, its called trimming the fat
@@millsfinancialgroup 10% of 100k jobs is a lot of jobloss for a single company. Now multiple that by all the companies in the world, some cutting 15-20% and you have a global recession.
@@millsfinancialgroup actually no. In a healthy economy, companies grow their workforce, not trim it
This reminds me of the late 70’s....those were brutal years for those just entering the job market.
Its actually a great time to enter the job market
I think you mean the early eighties. Graduated in ‘79 (Engineering) and just about everyone in my class had multiple job offers.
@@warrenbridle2494 your personal anecdote is not the entire country for an entire decade
I was part of the recent layoffs at Tesla and this bites hard. Grateful that I kept some savings north of 300k tho! Now I am looking for ways to allocate this into my portfolio to generate good dividends to supplement for my monthly expenses.
I believe a healthy portfolio has 3 things, at the bare minimum: Exposure to ETFs for increased diversification, Exposure to assets that generate cash flow like dividend stocks, Exposure to market-leading tech.
Consider allocating 30-40% to a High-Yield Savings Account (HYSA) and enlisting the help of an advisor to diversify into positions with the rest of your capital. My advisor has significantly impacted my financial journey, fostering clarity and confidence in the stock market. that’s what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
Things in stock market are being puffed up all an illusion...
She’s a douche bag
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
I retired a couple yrs earlier than i wanted to. I worked in big Construction. things were getting really bad. Owners wanted 20 hrs of work done in 10 hrs with half the men. I figured I'd start collecting my Pension while its still there
Whoa is you.
How about 10 million unemployed people coming into the U.S.?
10 million new Biden voters.
How do all of these immigrants - legal, illegal, and refugees - affect the U.S. economy? I've been asking this question for over 20 years now.
It's sabotage, done by corrupt politicians. Although, some of the politicians might just be dumb enough to think it's good for America, *it's mostly corruption.*
Do any economists do serious research into this issue? Let me know if you're aware of any.
@@Cynthiape2uc replacement workers
@jamesparker437 Who'll work for 7.25$ an hour in a red state share a house 30 ways and turn a red state blue. Probably lol.
@@Pheoniex Yep
The unemployment data is junk. If a FT job is lost, and 2 PT jobs are created, it pushes up the numbers.
Critcs don't understand that.
How the US Govt artifically lowers Unemployment Rate: American employers have been ordered to keep posting jobs that they aren't actually hiring, they don't have the vacancies nor the budget to make new hires. After applying, applicants will receive a scripted response telling you that too many people are applying and they've moved forward with other applicants. Days later the same jobs are reposted. Over and over again. There are approximately 12 million to 16 million of such bogus postings each month on various job search platforms. It's also estimated that 3 to 4 millions of those posts are scams. The Govt is trying to make itself appear doing better than China.
True
I’m employed, but have applied to probably 20 federal jobs. Five were closed without hiring anyone. They are 100% doing everything they can to keep the economy going and the panic down before the election…. that’s all this is. They don’t want Trump to use this economy as a major campaign point. The sad part is, these bozos have screwed up the economy so bad, it doesn’t matter who’s in charge after November.
But China is doing horrible - look into “let it rot”
They also don't count people who rolled off benefits or trying to get on benefits, or are underemployed.
@@mb9326 Yes precisely.
U.S one of the only places that taxes you globally to punish you for leaving. Freedom haaaaa. Chained and taxed baby
The 13th Amendment (R) freed the slaves; the 16th Amendment (D) enslaved everyone.
True what you are saying…..as a world traveller, let’s look further. The USA has the cheapest gasoline in the world, one of the cheapest living costs in the world. Health care is very high due to buy in from the citizens and corporate companies of the country. Safety due to gun laws is questionable depending on your leaning. Poor leadership politically is a given. In short, on a whole America has existed very well for decades. All citizens need to tighten up their belts. Stop flying, eating out, save and invest their money. Work hard and live far more conservative.
What have you been smoking, Douglas? America has one of the lowest living costs in the world? You're completely delusional.😂😂😂
#bullets before gold.
@@douglasthompson9482 Unless you go to the ghettos of America where all the misnamed 'gun violence' occurs, there are actually way too many gun laws. States with concealed carry have lower crime rates. Those who do not support gun ownership don't deserve to be free anyway.
It’s very disappointing and depressing that we haven’t already seen 10 million layoffs and massive foreclosures and bankruptcies. America needs a massive reset and big pain fast. We need the economy thrashed so that in 18-24 months things will be much better.
#bullets before gold.
Ha ha ha.
You really don't get how bad it is, do you?
There is no "flush" coming. It is a blackhole. Buy food supplies.
Yes, BUT because the perps were never punished, the corruption excised like the infection it is, the proper corrections never occurred, and that's what will happen again. TPTB won't allow it.
I don't think it will happen. The feds will juice the market in attempt to get biden elected
ROFL. I'm pretty sure you're joking although it's hard to tell because a lot of people say this stuff seriously. The only thing that would be good for America is getting the national debt under control. The national debt is the white walkers that are inevitably coming for us and there's no Night King that can be taken out to kill it. We crossed the Event Horizon during covid where there's no way to get it under control and anything you do to get it under control with austerity only makes it grow faster. Any government spending which is invariably inefficient, bloated, rigged, and unfair, makes it grow faster.
10 million layoffs doesn't help with that at all, in fact it massively feeds into that national debt. Higher interest rates doesn't help that, in fact the interest on debt has tripled in just a few years to over $1 trillion annually thanks to Jay Powell.
Other than all that I agree with DDB's points. Well also there's the problem that GDP Now is saying we're running at a 3.6% annualized GDP right now which is NOT recessionary like she's implying.
What happens when consumers see creditors as "bad'? Why pay on a "debt trap"? Obviously they see debt as oppressive. Nightmare scenario.
#bullets before gold.
I went into a Subway for the first time in 5+ years. $15 for a footlong sub? Short Subway they are going the way of Red Lobster. It's insane when fast food is this expensive.
You pay extra for convenience. They know that. Eat at home. Learn to cook. Subway isnt even real food
@user-bt9cm7ze4c you are right. His point was to pointlessly complain about inflation while offering zero solutions. And I guess your point is to argue and offer zero solutions. But Im the one missing the point. Ok
@@millsfinancialgroup exact a mundo
@millsfinancialgroup how come the convenience only cost me a fraction of what it is today?
Use coupons or the app for cheaper deals
Do a do a clip on trucking industry going bankrupt who caused all the problems
What nobody is talking about is this: when a series of ratecuts is announced, everybody stops borrowing ( and spending) until the last rate cut is done, so borrowing is at its cheapest. This might be the biggest reason why recession starts when rate cuts are announced. Will you please cover this in future Videos ? Thanks a lot !
Exactly if people are hearing a rate cut is comming why borrow now when in x months from now it will cost less to borrow. That is why we are starting to see a slow down of money circulation
the government can, for quite a while kick the recession can down the road, but only by issuing ridiculous amounts of debt at ever higher yields and then badly spending it and wasting a lot of it to stimulate the economy - if you just look at the private sector minus defence and it's all already recession
Defense is the most wasteful spending of all. $70k toilet seat ...
@@user-ps1ft1hy4j I can say the same of welfare spending such as SS, Medicare Medicaid and even ACA (Obamacare).
@@nicklll4477 That wouldn't be correct though. You just don't value what's bought with that money. That's different than buying something of no value whatever, like a $70k toilet seat. There is no world in which a $70k toilet seat provides value to anyone at all except a corrupt defense contractor and the politicians who let them provide zero value for massive dollars. Someone who gets, say, a doctor's visit is provided real value whether anyone likes it or not.
I felt President Biden spending another Trillion with Kamala being a cheerleader by his side was proof our politicians are idiots.
I felt President Biden spending another Trillion with Kamala by his side being a cheerleader was proof our politicians are idiots.
Prosperity in the West is a mirage.
Danielle ALWAYS presents some fascinating insights - thank you.
Does she plan on being right any time soon?
Always love to listen to Danielle
Didn’t she predict it would start in March ? It baffles me that these people never reflect on earlier made predictions as they were never made. That is what i call arrogance and ignorance.
She predicted it started last year, lol.
😂
Predictions based on the pull of the FED trigger is unreliable.
Two years ago...wrong for two year straight...she's a joke
Her business is about sounding smart but being wrong
I’m not sure what’s getting better, the show or your hair. It’s a tough decision -> amazing stuff to the both of you.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Gay
@@rua999rua999 Extremely, I have multi color hair as well and my stage name is Matilda -> specifically high heels (Gucci preferably) and a tight leather dress. You should come and watch me perform.
Really good one! You got into it right away and continued at a breakneck pace throughout. Thanks for the value!
Ditto. When I’m 2 minutes into a video and haven’t learned anything, I’m out.
@@trailguy Yup. Don't save the "prize" for the end and give us 9/10ths' filler and a huge commercial beforehand Seasoned viewers aren't fooled and they just opt out. There's always someone, somewhere else, doing it better. Deliver or get lost!
Great video, thank you 🙏
The US unemployment rate will climb 400-600 basis points towards and into the 8%-10% range . . . or maybe, if we counted the approx. 10 million who have dropped out of the labor force and who are no longer looking for work, we already have a ‘real’ unemployment rate twice as bad as the official (3.9%) rate suggests. Hard to properly monitor an economy with out-of-date and doctored data.
David we can count on your wonderful knowledgeable people to share information with us all. The National News seems asleep at the switch, or they left the building, so to speak, for a political bit if BS. The people are being served with your hard work and wonderful presentations. Thank you very much...This commentary is very informative. Bless you and your work and you God-given Tallents ,to do what you do. Please remain with us, our nation needs your reporting and commentary very badly.
The stock market and the economy are not correlated anymore. I don't why is the point of comparing those two
Overarching dynamic, innovative, illustrative, thought-provoking! One of the best interviews of the year!!!
Thanks you! Thank you! Thank you!
Good job David with questions
When it comes to gubment stats, figures don't lie, but liars figure.
Great content
We’re only in the fourth inning -- the worst is yet to come. Every business, food chain or anchor store that closes, adds to the trickle- down
Thanks David! Danielle is the best!🤙😉
Danielle is once again correct in her analysis. If there is any doubt, just read the earnings report from Target, Starbucks, Tyson Foods, etc. Just today, VF Corporation (maker of Northface, Timberland, Vans, Dickies brands) announced a 22% reduction in sales in the Americas. Consumer discretionary is rapidly falling. Unemployment will go much higher. Get defensive.
She has said this since 2020. She's a moron
I've been reading a book titled "The Greatest Trade Ever" by Gregory Zuckerman. It's interesting and very concerning that some of the things we're seeing today are much the same as what was occurring back in the lead up to the crash that began in 2007. It's also for much the same reasons. People who should know better are in so deep that can't admit the truth even to themselves. This will definitely be worse than the last one. Not only will home prices plummet but commercial real estate will be added to the loss column and all the government can do is tell one lie after another.
Fantastic job, best channel out there
Thanks!
Thanks David!!!!
Love your interviews and people you have on the show! You’re great at what you do David. Thank you for doing it! 🙌🏼🇺🇸
This has been going on for a long time now ! They have been fudging the numbers !! The average working person can’t survive !! 😔🙏
Smart, beautiful, a mum and a realist = a great combination.
Wages are not keeping up with everything there's to much cooperate, and consumer debt 🤔
Canada is in big trouble
#bullets before gold.
@@Doug-zl8nb #bullets before gold.
You are again comparing unemployment data now vs 2008. People affected due to consumer price vs same people investing in stock market are different. If the investors are personally affected by recession then only market will slow else it will contine to move up.
I love your work, man. Thank you.
I expect 4.1% unemployment
I think it’s much higher the government is playing with the numbers %
I have seen so many store closures%
looking good Danielle😊
With intelligent and well-articulated insights as well.
"You are cutting off the economy at the knees by keeping bad business aka zombie companies in operation". Great take and forever hopeful for an era of sanity to resume.
But that will raise unemployment and she will scream the sky is falling
She said “Powell was the new Volcker”, cmon David, hold her accountable.
I'm convinced Powell is her sugar daddy.
Yes she's right.. 70 per cent of Americans are broke.. she tells truth. Powell tells lies.. if economy is good why are 70 percent of Americans struggling..it's obvious. We❤ Daniel and Lin you tube channel.
70% of America is always struggling. We're a nation of terrible money managers.
If they are broke, why do they keep spending? Why are housing prices not declining? It is easy to just say stuff with no evidence like she does
Great Guest and interview.
DDMB is everywhere! Great guest again Davaid 🤙
I’m a hairdresser in Sf, literally October…….sudden and extreme drop off in business for myself and all busy stylists I know. We all knew something “happened.” It has mostly picked up since but October/Nov were dramatic.
Sometimes getting into the weeds is helpful. Thanks Danielle.
It is a slow motion roller coaster.
So nice to hear someone be honest and not gaslight us with "the economy is great" "unemployment is low"
She's been saying this 2yrs 😂
Time for small businesses to come forth
Great show, enjoy Danielle's take on all things economic. Trucking bankruptcy's are picking up steam along with other sectors. As far as stock markets making new highs, perhaps everyone should rewatch "The Big Short". :)
I am actively avoiding ANY work. I am 53 with no job but financially independent
Silent depopulation in affect .
😉
I only came for the comments and you didn’t disappoint.
Nobody is buying houses or cars right now.
Thanks Danielle for heads up that stocks could be OK (albeit increasingly risky) until the Fed actually cuts.
you gotta love the Lin...
Another great interview. Things are cooling off for sure. Interest rates will drop as they should. The general public needs to respond to this. Live within your means and reduce your debt. The corporate entities need to pay their fair taxes, wealthy included. Will most of these things happen….probably not. Just my thoughts.
If you want corporate entities pay their fair share of taxes, change the 16th amendment from income to sales tax then corporations won't need to do loopholes in paying taxes.
🚨BANK🚨RUN🚨SEASON🚨
She brought up things I never thought of.
Love your intelligence Danielle!
interesting and her points are valid
Wait for may 26th
Who put Danielle in a closet?
Looks like a water closet!
She picked up a part time job as a janitor
If she comes out of the closet, we might be disappointed.
Her business is about sounding smart but being wrong
Lol
It is counterintuitive that the market goes down when interest rates are lowered.
Well well I live every factory has help want signs in front of them in the Midwest and cannot find workers anywhere
How anyone can call a 3.9% unemployment a troubling sign is beyond me? I have more work than I can keep up with. People are just excuse building for their next bailout request
Why gold and silver don’t go up
Surprised there isn't any information about some governmental agency (can't recall who or how it was implemented) allowed, or required the big three credit companies to add 200 points to the lowest credit ratings so these people could qualify loans, insurance, rentals and other things requiring a good credit rating. Is it this cohort that aren't paying their debts?
She's been predicting a downturn for years. She will eventually be right
🙏🏼 good solid interview. It makes total sense to me and if anybody has to be a crazy lady, Danielle will be the last one. Interesting to learn that the first job report(s) are computed versions.
What I am actually worried for (for the regular people, for our young ones) is is that the FED reacts too late. Ofcourse nobody is waiting for a rate cut and for inflation to shoot up again, but at least ‘we’ (the USA is somehow always followed by Europe) have our economy (albeit including the companies that actually can only survive on the lowest interest rates) still going on for a while (and the govs debts also become more affordable etc. We all know what happens when the gov cannot pay the interest on it’s debts: tax increase.
I know it is what you call ‘kicking the can’, but hell will be frozen over before the govs will cut their own spending by 50% (or any good number), to create a breather against this compounding debt and the interest that has to be paid.
It is naïve to think that war, and confiscation of assets of ‘the enemy’ will bring a solution or even a relief to the situation.
The Biden administration has made an incredible mess of everything. Everything.
Last remark: I live in a very diverse social group and I totally agree that recession has hit in Fall 2023 in Europe. People talked about money, increased costs of living, fear to loose their jobs, making all types of changes in their lives to reduce the financial worries and stress. And believe me, these topics are in the ‘shame’ corner, so when people talk about it ánd make changes, THIS IS BIG.
Danielle has been talking about a recession for over two years now. She’ll be right eventually and will have missed out on 100% stock market gains.
Her business is about sounding smart but being wrong
Well their not gains till you sell
You know how she's invested?
You know the economy is getting tough when Danielle doesn't have enough money to buy a finished 👗 dress.
@@ChapulinColorado1969 oh, that's flaunting what you got while you can.
Wait a second. DDB said we went into recession last October .
Technically we did. But if you mean when do we notice it in the street s, that takes 6-8 months.
I've been seeing more cars for sale on the side of the road since the fall.
Since we are getting close to the end of the month and Memorial Day means a long weekend, Over 400 eviction court cases scheduled THIS WEEK in Oklahoma City. American Credit card debt is $900 BILLION.
The weather is warm now. People can spend more time outdoors.
The bankruptcy cycle this time around is much different. As debt from Private Equity leveraged companies rolls into the new interest rate environment many can't stay afloat with the increased servicing cost.
Big players in the San Francisco multi family housing markets are handing over the keys. Hotels and commercial real estate properties are selling at 25% of pre-Covid valuations.
FED always act behind the curve , FED must cut interest rate immediately before everything's go out of control
Hey David, cruise ships are the last thing to go because it's mainly retired boomers who are looking at their share portfolios and the value of their properties and spending like there's no tomorrow - they are flush with cash and no debt - but the employed and younger consumer are suffering
Unemployment in Delaware is super high. Lot of businesses went bankrupt due to sky High interest rates . Thank you. Brandon.
Smart money has to take chips off the table earlier, because they are big, and need a lot of liquidity, especially from corporate buybacks, for the transactions to occur. Small fry can wait until the last minute to take profits.
EXACTLY. I been saying the same thing. I do believe it's coming. Warren Buffett sold some Apple and has 188 billion in cash now at Berkshire. They are BIG so they had to sell early. So i do believe it's coming. Not sure if it's weeks or months or a year BUT it's coming.
Im hopeful Danielles stating the need for creative destruction is necessary. But I fear the “in crowd” or “have’s” will have strong influence over the regulators. And continue to manipulate economics. For both parties gain and the fear of having things happen on their legacy. I believe we’re screwed!
Best interview in a long time DDMB tends to be repetitive across various podcasts. This had some fresh material. Well done. DDMB is the female mark yusko. Lot of phrases are recycled for months and months
David, during an important comment by Danielle at timecode 31:48, her mic was cut off and the words became unintelligible. This is unprofessional. Please fix.
Whats the percentage now of unemployment in usa in 2nd quarter of 2024 .:: ????
I was 30 hours short to qualify for EI. I thought, how cool woukd it be if i wait like a month, and if the unemployment rate goes up you need less hours to qualify, and then i will have enough hours
Got my access code a few days ago. If it worked it will be just badass.
Red Lobsters demise was the result of inept management and private equity gutting the company.
Reset sounds more palatable:(
LPR is not great and U-6 unemployment rate is ticking between 7.5 and 8%. We're in stagflation.
When will it be bad enough to no longer look the other way? Is this when interest rates are lowered and we can start to climb out?
Broken business models wouldn’t exist in the slightest if we had a Biblical take on money.
Don’t charge interest to borrowers that are American
Use sound money (gold, silver, BTC or whatever you fancy)
Abolish the central banks, which are the Golden Calf
And last but not least, a mandatory debt jubilee every 7th year. Solves the re-hypothecation and inflation issue.
Watch as this happens in due time. This WILL BE our system in just a little while…
I love it