How Bad is The UK Economy?
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- Опубліковано 20 тра 2024
- In this election year, understanding the UK economy's current state and potential trajectory is more important than ever. This video offers an objective review, covering UK inflation, growth, housing prices, wage trends, labour market dynamics, and the UK stock market.
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Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
00:44 UK Inflation
02:54 Wage Growth
03:41 Labour Market
04:36 House Prices
07:13 Retail Sales
08:50 GDP
10:35 UK Stock Market
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DISCLAIMER
All information is given for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Ramin does not provide recommendations and is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Figures that are quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
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is this supposed to be a link...?
puran.madan@@figaroblue1
We are now living the long term consequences of 3 decades of thinking that high house prices are the sign of increasing prosperity - they are not.
They're the opposite because it's simply a debt burden that sucks up all the spending power that would otherwise create jobs.
and the UK is far from unique on that score.
3 decades of mass migration driving up house prices for the rich.
In real terms house prices have dropped even more but a few years of flat prices (real terms reduction) would be good for many people
evilzzzability
That depends on how you are positioned.
If you own your own home and just a couple of other rental properties outright, even today you will have substancial assets
I'm a self employed Plumber and I can tell you the building trade has slowed massively.
I'm hearing this from multiple tradespeople right now
Thats a bad sign as plumbers arev usually essential trades. Depends on region too i expect
UA-camrs now share all the tricks of trade, everyone's an expert now.
@@trickydicky90and that’s never going to end well 😂😂😂 👍🏴🏴🏴🇬🇧
@@matthewthomas5241 I agree but some of these youtube plumbers are making x10 more selling all their trade secrets than they did with the job, much to the detriment of those in the trade sadly. 50% of call outs are trivial stuff and these vids solves a fair amount of that work.
UK worker’s yearly salary is still lower in real wage terms compared to what it was in 2008. We need wages to keep increasing.
Same goes for a lot of countries including the US.
The country is not making a fiscal surplus. Extra wages mean extra borrowing (....until the financial market loses confidence and stops lending)
@@xtc2v That would only make sense if you were talking about public sector workers. But most private companies have been making larger and larger profits but keep their wage flat.
Average UK household disposable incomes are £10,000 per household per year lower in real terms than they would have been had they grown since 2008 at their long-term rate.
Increase salaries, then increase the cost of services to pay for the increase, then repeat indefinitely
4 drinks and a slice of cake cost me £20 today, that's crazy.
Lucky you. The same thing in Croatia would set you back twice that.
Thats cheap in US you would pay double🙈
@@balkanleopard9728
I doubt that Croatia has £40 for a few drinks and a slice of cake 😂
No crash? soft landing?
we already crashed,we've just not seen it
Like a Tsunami,you don't see it first,but then it becomes clear
we're fk'd in UK
we make nothing or sod all compared to imports we do
we buy other countries 'stuff'
you seen the Layoffs happening
Body shop 10k across the world, 3k in UK iirc
@@ChiFlow-pe2twIs that with or without US-eye-gouging tips? 😂
One of the best measures of the economy and society in general is the level of credit card debt, boom! Not good!
Lots of uncertainty. My job has laid off many. So everyone is quite nervous. I was ready to splash on a new kitchen but holding back and keeping the 10k in a Cash ISA. Future isn’t looking good.
Seems bizarre that cutting wage growth in an economy where it has stagnated for over a decade can possibly be a sensible solution to economic problems. Surely, a very bad sign.
You read my mind there. An overly simplistic analysis if you ask me. The solution to service inflation for me should be to increase the production of it. There’s very little of it at the moment. Also the labour market may be less tight but not in the sectors that we need most at the moment for growth, i.e. IT and Engineering. The analysis is generic so doesn’t drill down into the problem areas properly. My opinion of course.
CPIH is manipulated, and do not include mortgage cost, but some sort of rent equivalent which they aren’t even clear about how they (ONS) do..
Yeah, OOER is basically just a made up number.
WE keep on hearing about the situation of mortgagees and rising interest rates. We never hear anything about the fact that depositers,many simpler savers, have been receiving next to no interest payments in the last 14 years. It used to be standard to get 5% at the building society. Over 14 years 5% compounded more than doubles. A considerable loss of potential interest if we did not have to bail out the bankers. Basically the money was diverted to saving the banks ,capitalism and the stock market as well. The depositers were kiboshed by quantitative easing and successive governors of the BoE.
The people in charge don't want people saving, but want them to be consumers - through spending their hard earned money and then borrowing. Banks too have every incentive to push for lower interest rates: they then save billions on paying interest on bank savings and earn more from loans and credit because low interest rates encourage people to borrow even more.
@@pritapp788 On the other hand people have to have houses whatever the cost, whatever the borrowing cost in interest rates.
Buying a house over 25 years results in ordered society . You load 16 tons and what do you get. Another day older a nd deeper in debt
I have a couple of fixed-term ISAs at 5.0% and 5.5%...pity all the interest is being wiped out by inflation. Once these have come to an end I'll be buying gold and silver before Starmer finishes Britain off completely. Britain will be like South Africa, Venezuela or Zimbabwe in 2 years time.
@@JupiterThunder I follow UK from abroad and I get the impression that if something is good for the party and bad for the country they will do that and never vice versa.
We are almost certainly in recession in all but name. House prices and employment last to fall as in every recession. Retail sales look horrendous. Hold tight
Totally agree. I said in 2023 that it was a rough year but I suspected that 2024 could feel worse despite not actually being worse as such. I just think the penny is finally dropping for most people now. Personally, I can see us turning the corner a bit in terms of the prices of goods and I don't really use a huge amount of the service sector, so I do actually feel like my money is now going further than it was for most of last year and the back end of 2022. You can see prices moving south in lots of areas relative to where they have been.
But I do think we were basically in a recession in the last few months of 2023. I don't care what the technical indicators say. I go on actually how I feel and what I can touch, hear, see and smell. It stank of a recession last year. 2024 is the year that the snowball has to melt. And that means people might drown a little as the snowmelt is more than some bargained for. I just cannot see how there will not be a loss work for many. The building sector is on its knees. House prices are buckling despite sellers insisting on keeping asking prices high which couple with lower FTB affordablity due to rates, means the market has just stagnated. Second hand car prices are tanking more and more and overall there are signs everywhere that people just do not have money. Even on forums I use, you can see the classified sections are much more different than the norm. Prices are getting pushed lower because nobody has any money for luxuries. I tried to sell some golf stuff recently on ebay. It normally flies out the door but even my high quality stuff did not sell. The signs are everywhere. You don't even have to look that hard.
Yes - but the public clearly are not interested in that narrative. I'm a domestic structural engineer in Bristol doing loft conversion, extensions etc - and there still seems to be no shortage of people wanting to spend lots of money on still-expensive builders to get those things done in their homes. And all the restaurants around me still need table bookings even mid-week.
@danguee1 Lots of city dwellers do that as a means of 1) avoiding moving to cater for growing family, or 2) adding a room to rent out; especially to students.
@@HixyboyblueWe could very well have been in a technical recession in the second half of 2023. It's on a knife edge and December retail figures were terrible. A lot will be revealed Feb 14 and 15.
Great video again Ramin! One thing to note however, when you share graphs with a black background, the lines are difficult to see
It`s a lot easier getting a tradesman to show up this last few months.
Yes, and the postman. 😂
This is the sort of video I am interested in seeing more of. Or exploring each element in isolation
Thumbs up Ramin. We still have a housing crisis or more accurately a LAND crisis unfortunately. Without land you cant build more houses and unfortunately land is very tightly held in the hands of the few. What is more we have a structural problem on land. For example, once developers and very wealthy land investors own land in the UK there is no taxes due or a council tax band for this type of property ownership. Yet in most developed countries around the world there is a tax levied on this type unused land bracket. Sadly, as long as Tories hold the reins there wont even be a discussion
The natural world needs land as well as people.
@stardusttwo6262 Of course. And finding the right balance is key. In the meantime create a tax band for land that is just sat on by self interested parties and use the income towards pressing environmental issues
I live in a village in the midlands where houses are very sought after due to the schools and it just being a very nice place to live.
Most of the houses on the market were sold subject to contract as soon as they came on and people literally wait years to move here.
That was until now! There is now a glut of houses for sale, every day more houses are listed with very few sold. There were even many new listings between Christmas and New Year.
I am a self employed contractor and I fear this is the beginning of tough times for many.
Southwell, Nottinghamshire?
I live somewhere similar. We have a lot of retired home owners and family homes. People have stopped buying and as a response people have stopped listing or are removing their stagnat listing rather than reduce prices. There is a significantly reduced activity here.
Barton under Needwood.
Over the last few years prices in Barton have been heavily inflated and now rate rises may be starting to affect affordability. It seems more rapid than all the other villages in the area.
My area is full of new builds that politicians keep telling me I wanted.
Changed my pension 3 years ago to exclude UK, boy did that pay off!
May increase my USA allocation if a Trump presidency looks likely..
I wasn't aware you could do that? Our company pension offers to change from low, medium or high risk.
More people questioning the accuracy of the UK inflation figures. It doesn't inlude morrtgage costs but a proxy for it so with the 50%+ it is not reflected. Red Sea route issues and new EU rules both look like pushing inflation up plus living wage min increase. Will inflation fall?
Job layoffs are steadily increasing and figures around the housing are weaker than headline figures - number of missed payments up, new mortages down applications and value down. Credit card spending and missed payments also on the rise. A mixed bag.
Rates got cut to zero as an emergency measure during the GFC and we've been stuck around zero ever since. If rates can now renormalize without something major breaking I'm the economy then that is fantastic news. We have finally recovered from the GFC!
I can’t help feeling that we have low growth in UK because we just don’t produce anything new and novel, no products that everyone needs, just boring dull maintenance of the status quo…
"UK has a high level of debt, an aging population, high inflation and a low level of productivity growth. However, many of these challenges that the UK faces are common to other developed countries. Furthermore, many “British” businesses are global and not singularly exposed to the UK economy."
@@mellowmarkable And over regulation too…no real incentive for new business to grow. The British global companies are all mature and too big and complex to be innovating. Costs for employment, health and safety, insurance in UK are also prohibitive.
And high taxes. Not worth starting a small business on the side of day job as will be left with just over half revenue. Not worth it for the effort. Can't set up LTD company as main job doesn't allow it.
Isn’t 80% of our economy services, therefore we don’t rely on having to produce and export goods like others
@@bash102 About 72% is, so similar to France (70%) and higher than Germany (63%), but lower than the US (78%).
Crisis in the middle east with ships avoiding red sea path means that transportation of everything including energy in a form of oil and liquid gas will go up, increasing the inflation again later this year. I disagree with the mild positivity in this video. The outlook is gloom for me.
Inflation will come back due to supply constraints, which will push inflation back up is my take. Recession will follow.
You explained why the UK economy has been bad for awhile but you left out any reason why it might improve other than “it’s priced pretty low so let’s give it a go”
I think that’s the point, there are no reasons
He did.. the reason is the statistics show the UK economy is okay and is showing an upturn and with the fact that most UK businesses are priced low due to fear and uncertainty. Buying into UK stocks right now has great odds of making a return.
"You can't hit down any further than rock bottom"
Outstanding! The USA is growing faster, but their debt to GDP is much higher and the debt servicing costs are equivalent to their military budget. The UK will be fine going forward.
Really? No mention of almost daily job loss announcements? Fastest rate of company failures since the 90s? The hospitality sector facing its worst year in 25 years?
I’m truly staggered that none of those widely reported economic stories made it into this report.
You can’t, with all due respect and in my opinion, base your economic predictions solely on heavily lagging data, without mentioning some of these leading indicators.
Were you unaware of these reports, or did you just not consider them relevant?
When you work in the woods all you can see are trees.
Nothing will be allowed to get in the way of the "great disinflation, booming economy, rapidly rising wages" narrative. See the US as well.
Two things missing here are the housing inflation element which is CPIH which is going up as mortgage resets filter through at 50% to 150% of previous mortgage payments and that has lots of legs left just yet through 2024/25.
Then you have the 9.8% increase in minimum wages coming in April 2024 which will blow wage inflation out of the water as people will either be directly affected or they will want a pay rise to keep their margin over NMW levels.
So whilst CPIH may start to fall if interest rates could themselves fall, we have 12 months of 10% wage inflation starting in 2 months time.
The UK market is going nowhere or down and would you take a short UK versus long USA / global equity position ? I might.
How about instead of attacking wage growth which is in dire need of happening we attack profit margins, excessive dividends and the wage growth of specifically people that have not seen wage growth stagnate for decades?
This inflation is a sign of whats to come. The job market is going to get increasingly weighted towards staff because staff and especially competent and highly trained staff will be a rare global commodity. You cant win that fight. People arent having children because they cant afford to have children ... because people keep finding new and exciting ways to avoid paying them their fair share.
We are reaching the natural conclusion of that game. So tough luck to the people that have been playing it.
A lot of what you suggest will make the UK an even less investable country than it currently is. Firms will set up in Ireland instead.
@@WillyJunior Thats nonsense. Ireland has an even worse affordability crisis than the UK. All the things I am proposing need to happen there too.
@@sacredgeometry I'm not talking about an affordability crisis in Ireland. I'm talking about it already being a much more attractive place for businesses to set up in than England.
@@WillyJunior Thats because it's a tax haven. It will stop being so attractive if they don't stop the fact that it's haemoragging young people that can no longer afford to live there. Also the EU were looking to close certain loopholes and if it did you could see the foreign investment upping and leaving too.
You know there is a massive disparity between irelands on paper wealth and the wealth of its people right? Explicitly because those countries are using it as the EUs defacto tax avoidance mechanism.
Lots of new build housing developments around our local area have all stopped work on site other than making existing houses water tight
What area you in Nick?
Please review china stock market and recent crisis and what his take is and for wider EM funds.
I can't see where areas of growth will come from in the future. Apart from the defense and pharma industries, the UK doesn't really have standout businesses. Added to the lack of glimmers of hope is the exhaustion of the treasuries coffers, poor leadership, and the decrease of the boomer gen across this decade, who monetarily on average have had the most capacity to spend. A bleak outlook indeed.
Furthermore boomer spending is going to be mostly on aged care and medical expenses... even if they are cashed up it's not going to prop up the entire economy, only specific segments of it.
They will continue to privatise the remaining services provided by the state in order to extract profit from them, ie hpllow them out. When the money is extracted in profit and the services collapse bankruptcy will de declared and they will close with no other services to replace them .
With Stamer's Labour at a 20+ point lead in the polls consistently I just can't say that its "unclear" who is going to be in charge. Obviously it could change, it can always change, but so far its been a very clear lead for Labour.
They will cancel the election due to extreme events, almost inevitable.
Yip, looking at a working majority for labour, 350 seats ish ?
Starmer will get us back into the EU.
National polls make no sense in an election which is decided by local votes on FPTP basis. You can have a 20-point lead nationwide but still find yourself losing a number of contested seats in areas where that lead doesn't apply.
I think we're marching straight into stagflation. We saw an energy cost transitory spike in inflation the the BOE has over reacted too and is holding in their over reaction for too long. A video on the possibility of deflation/stagflation would be good?
What about the contraction in the money supply? Surely a major recessionary sign.
Given the uncertain economic conditions and heightened global tensions, I'm considering investing over $800k in stocks. However, I'm uncertain about how to minimize potential risks.
Thanks Ramin👍
My pleasure @tonygroom3087
Very informative video. As a US investor, I would have liked to hear some opinion on your value stock picks and why.
I do have a very large position in British American Tobacco and a small position in Legal & General.
A friend of mine has a policy with Legal & General and everytime he has to make a payment, I thank him for my dividends 😅
Really like the content, however would it be possible to make the lines on the graph a bit clearer ? The U.K. GBP vs US GBP at 9:42 roughly, is hard to see.
I hope this doesn’t offend you.
Really enjoy your videos! 🙂
Hi @mintmansam You are right that graph is not a clear as it could have been so no offence taken :-) Thank you for watching and subscribing to our channel. Ramin
The fiscal 'contribution deficit' of living on IOU's for the past thirty years or so is about to hit home.
Another indicator of how bad the UK economy is, is the fact that it can't function properly with interest rates at 5.25%. Basically, it's in deep doodoo.
Thanks
Great video as always! Can I ask... which UK stocks did you buy? Diageo perhaps?
I bought Diageo when their price dropped off a cliff in November. The price has struggled since then but climbed nicely last week. I'm hopeful this will be a good buy long term, given their great products (which I happen to enjoy! 😜).
Pretty optimist view on such matter
Great videos ramin 🙏 super helpful
Happy to hear that! @PhillCurtis
The most sensitive measure of the UK economy is commercial property REITS. ishares UK property tells you everything you need to know.
Starts crashing with the inverted yield curve 12 months before the recession and only recovers when interest rates are slashed.
The quality of live in the UK is diabolical. We've gone back to living in high rise flats, back to having to rubbish on our streets and people even living without toilets. Neither party has any sustainable policies to tackle this, just quick fixes.
Great review (as always) - thanx for all your hard work.
Much appreciated! @a2comuk
Ever heard of Adam Smith?
He wrote this book, Wealth of Nations.
In that book he used the word 'education' Eighty Times. He also used the phrase "read, write and account" multiple times.
The UK could have made accounting/finance mandatory in the schools since Sputnik. Did the London School of Economics ever suggest that.
How many times did he use the word "industry"? In those days "wealth" came from factories not banks.
@@josemercado3063
I am not talking about banks. In 1776 50% of Brits were illiterate. But the United States could have made accounting/finance mandatory in the schools since Sputnik.
What would that have for the economy by now?
Inflation inflation inflation. It's going to hurt even more later on down the line.
In real terms my salary is 18% lower than it was in 2010. And I'm doing the same type of job with the same responsibilities. This country is a basket case!
By taxing pensions and making pensioners poorer, who have already been taxed on incomes will stunt growth, which begs the question - why are we being taxed more than
that after WW2? £1,005 Bn - that's far too much. Hence zero growth.
Chemtrails will take a lot of money from government in long run when the public take then to court
Where are you getting your cpi inflation figures from? The FT has uk 4%, france and germany 3.7% and us at 3.4% in dec 2023.
FYI long term interest rates are 5 to 6 percent so we are already at normal
Excellent as always. UK equity has been undervalued for some time which I really haven’t understood. It’s been a Great period for buying UK businesses for peanuts. Rolls Royce has made me a return around the same as if I’d invented in nvidia.
Same, I bought into RR about a year ago and am up about 250% on it which is nice.
@@ijw2009 Highlights of the year are Rolls Royce at +275% and De La Rue at +109%. More than covers some small losses on Vodafone and Direct Line.
The few outperformers are the exception that proves the rule, the UK is cheap because it underperforms, only successfull globally active companies buck that trend. By all means try and cherry pick stocks if that's your thing , but don't buy a UK index fund.
Recently I opted for UGRW ETF for the UK . New , but I like their filtering process . Never understand why GGRP and DGRP from WisdomTree are not far more popular with investors .
I'm going to look into these. Thanks.
Property has been such an easy and safe “investment” for many people with spare money. It’s helped the building trade and estate agent industry but it hasn’t helped the UK grow. It’s likely discouraged a lot of people from taking higher risks in start ups and investments.
excellent summary, thank you.
You are welcome! @AH-wr1ir
It's not that bad.
In 1939-45 we had an egg 4oz flour a bit of butter and a potatoe.
Now you think you are in trouble if you cannot afford the largest I phone
We are looking at buying a bigger house in the UK but still undecided if we buy now with a 2 year fixed or wait untill rates come down. We currently have a 1.6% Mortgage for another 6 years but could use the extra space.
Exact same problem in the US at the moment, where a once mobile workforce has immobile, because of homeowners move, they lose those record low mortgages. And they can fix for 30 years, which is killing the banks, so they've stopped lending.
Limited supply of UK housing is incorrect. It is high immigration which is keeping housing out of reach.
The supply is limited by the low numbers of new builds which goes back decades - we were building nearly twice as many houses per year in the 1960s when the population was significantly lower - over 400,000 homes a year in some years. The 250,000 a year government target has never been met, the last time we built that many homes per year, was I think, around 1979. There has been a huge fall in local authority housebuilding and the private sector hasn't even come close to closing the gap. Plus most of the big private sector builders cater for the more expensive end of the market, it's only a few of the smaller housebuilders (eg MJ Gleeson, Vistry to some extent and Springfield, who are Scotland only) who predominantly focus on more affordable housing. Just one small housebuilder alone (Henry Boot) own over 100000 plots (although only a minority currently have planning permission) so the land is there, just needs the houses to be built...
Majority if UK houses were built before the 1960s, since then there's been a massive slowdown in new builds. Therefore you're living in dreamland if you think immigration is the cause of this housing market, it's just another problem on top of the fact that the UK simply doesn't build houses.
Agree, immigrants are crammed into multiple occupancy accommodations, often ten people in a three bedroom house, in sheds on bunk beds - working like dogs and paying high rent for poor quality multi occupancy housing. While more Brits than ever are living in single occupancy properties with spare rooms - half of over fifties on benefits for long term sickness/disability (depressed and obese). How is this fair?
Well for who all the new builds are all around London is sad when a 100 years old house sold and shown as investment to a society
@@akhusalthat's their business model and how they can afford to undercut others.
UK and USA too much depends on their Currency Supremacy.
Anyone who invests in the UK market is mad
I visited UK economy down bad to expensive % up I not want to live there sorry
Your uk energy costs are way too high -thanks to a bungled energy policy by all parties.
Now there's to be a new £5k allowance for a UK investment ISA, what are our best options for a low cost UK only fund, preferably ETF please?
The entirely non productive part of our economy (Government) is now massive. And the productive part (the Manufacturing Base) is now decimated due to many years of over taxation by government. I mean, what could possibly go wrong?
What's your definition of Government?
Do you consider education to be non productive? What about adult social care, healthcare?
@@qbadger UK Healthcare, social care, schools etc all cost money but don't make money. Technically they are financially unproductive industries which have increased in size in an effort to make more jobs which have been lost in other areas of the economy. It does need to be reversed.
@@qbadger Education is arguably non productive for the amount of money it costs. The most successful people in business tend to be self taught, self motivated individuals.
So my degree in 'Media Studies ' is useless? 😥
Manufacuring has been decimated by a super-strong GBP, which is a consequence of the highly questionable financial services provided by the UK and the crown dependency tax havens. What is the point of manufacturing when goods from China are so cheap, despite them being shipped halfway across the planet? But this results in the hyper-concentration of the economy in London, which is a disaster in itself.
On inflation, is it not better than where the boe assumed we would be in their November report? 4.6% Q4 2023, 4.4% Q1 2024.
INTERESTING.
The variable rate for most mortgages in the UK is insanity. Coupled with "Follow the Fed" mentality of the central bank the UK is gonna be in a world of hurt the next 4-8 years
Little growth since 2002
Depends where you live and what you mean. Here in North West towns it's the worst I've seen in my 62 yrs, buildings , roads and services are falling literally apart. This area has terminal cancer
which towns?
@@MAYHAM-ze8bo St Helens, Wigan, Oldham, bury, Rochdale etc etc
10:00 of course it is not so bad if you are losing and you are comparing yourself to other losers.
Interest rates cannot go up to high in our current economy of credit and debt. Governments have borrowed so much even during a time of austerity. With current national debt, raising rates would cripple the economy. If inflation was to run away higher and reach beyond a controllable rate level, once that rate level is breached then they will be unable to raise rates any higher and inflation will runaway. No matter what, it will all crash one day and it will all need resetting.
We are heading for a hyperinflationary depression thats were we are inflation comes in waves we are heading into the second wave of inflation exspect bank failures in 2024
whoop whoop let's have a party, f the banks!
CPI is a pointless metric, anything that doesn't include housing costs shouldn't be used.
How are these official inflation figures calculated? We've seen our groceries and services bills double in the last two years. Sure, petrol has come down from near €2 / litre in late 2023 to €1.4 / litre now, but that's still about 40% above where it was two years ago. Are we therefore to understand that an official 4% inflation rate means an actual rate of inflation of 40% PA? Official inflation data seems totally divorced from our lived reality.
they have transferred the financial crash to the working class/ poor , and labelled it ' cost of living' .
Employment is shady. Being in funded training with no job prospect is not unemployment or in casual work on a 0 hour contract is also employed on paper.
Quality opportunities and full-time work is extremely low
On Skid Row.
is it the camera or his shoulders ?
ok btw - ehat does the UK economy run on? agricuture, oil? software? what? is there anything that the UK does at all ?
Anecdotally speaking, I found shopping centres, restaurants and pubs to be incredibly busy in the run up to Christmas. Even now during January, restaurants are still quite busy where I live.
Consumer confidence is at a 2-year high, numerous economic organisation forecast our inflation to fall to 2% by spring, PMI figures are far above our European neighbours, manufacturing particularly car-making is skyrocketing and beating pre-covid figures, mortgages can now be fixed for 3.85%, energy bills are expected to fall a further 16% in April, minimum wage/state pensions will surge in April so will benefit the poorest in society, well-run businesses like Octopus/NEXT/M&S are reporting growing earnings so I'm personally quite optimistic to be honest.
@KJ-js7pi That 3.85% is only true for 60% LTV mortgages. The more common 80-90% LTV mortgages still go for ~5-6%.
The increasing minimum wage means increasing costs for employers, which means they have to increase the price of their goods and services, aka. the good old wage-price inflation spiral.
Growing pensions means the government sooner or later either has to get more revenue through taxes, cut back its spending or borrow money. Neither of which are good for the commoners like you and I.
Car manufactuing will be gone in 5 to 10 years unless Brexit is fixed, maybe not even then ...... UK used to be cheap labour and employers costs vs. other western European companies plus the Japanese were most comfortable with English. Now eastern europe is cheaper and the standard of english spoken there is good.
We are paying the highest level of taxes and yet government debt has more than doubled - conservative budget mismanagement. From UK GDP income, 10% or 100 billion is already gone - spent on debt, more than on education.
Mortgages, cars, personal loans and credit cards are probably all maxed out by Uk citizens. People cannot afford to service this debt and therefore delinquency rates will only increase with the pressures of inflation in the economy and less money in circulation.
One thing l don’t understand is how can you have low unemployment, increase in wages and almost no growth. I would appreciate some insights.
Answer: Governement Sector. For other example see Greece pre crash
And the latest US employment data.
The UK lags behind other comparable countries in both public and private investment. As a percentage of GDP it's the lowest in the G7.
If you invest less than others then you can expect to grow less over the long term...
The answer is inflation. From a Google search nominal year on year GDP growth in the UK was 8.66% in Sep 2023.
Just because people are employed and wages are growing doesn’t mean we’ve become more productive. In anything we’ve gotten worse
I think the UK economy is doing great else how the hell can the UK government afford to give Ukraine and Israel money.
Wow I think he is wrong. I think inflation has only dipped as it’s year on year inflation and after the high numbers it’s bound to look more reasonable.
Numerical recipes in C! A classic book.
Oh yes! @TheBrick2
Markets understand that real inflation (using 1980 definitions) is double the official rate. So they are looking for yields of over 8% just to match real inflation.
UK stock market is down almost 4% YoY. By contrast Nasdaq is up 43%; Dax is up 11%; Cac +6%; Moex is up 50%..
Rising house prices = falling standard of life
Where did all money the UK collected from the commonwealth nations go?
Where did all the money UK collected from Russians before the SANCTIONS go?
I work in marketing so I interact directly with a large number of business and I can tell you that the UK economy is not in a healthy place right now.
GDP is not a good indicator of the health of the economy.
Let's be honest, broadly speaking, the UK economy is a mess and no amount of statistical bull can disguise the horrendous budget/balance of payments deficit that has been propped up by the debt for equity game which is down to asset inflation driven by invisibles through money printing. On a micro level, it boils down to someone living off a growing credit card balance/asset/equity draw down funded by debt rather than selling services/products to the big wide world world in the form of exports. It really is common sense which is why we should be focussing our attention on the actual wealth creating economies around the world.
The UK amongst the big European economies is the second lowest debtor, Germany being the first, by the 2030's our economy is forecast to be above Germany's and their debt is set to rise above ours, assuming Labour doesn't get in!?!
@@TomTomicMic The ratio of government debt to GDP is 66% in Germany and 97% in the UK.
The highest ratios of government debt to GDP in the EU at the end of the second quarter of 2023 were recorded in Greece (166.5%), Italy (142.4%), France (111.9%), Spain (111.2%), Portugal (110.1%) and Belgium (106.0%), and the lowest in Estonia (18.5%), Bulgaria (21.5%), Luxembourg (28.2%), Denmark (30.2%) and Sweden (30.7%).
The UK budget deficit is 5.5% of GDP, in Germany it's 2.5%.
The economic forecast you are referring to appears to be the CEBR one from 2013 (11 years ago and before Brexit) so very out of date!
Ditto so many economies including the US.
tho the UK house prices isn't only England
Good video
Thanks @danbradbury4067
£1.50 a litre for fuel. $ 83 a barrel of oil? 80 million a day for the uninvited. We screwed.
Do not underestimate the lag effect.
The thing that unites us is really cost of living and salaries in uk. Unless you are a ceo or goon from westminster real term living costs bills. Etc are putting us in debt. Even middle classes struggling. Its a real mess and coupled with a weak government that has no clear vision.
Nice to hear reason amongst all the hyperbole
Thanks @R1chardH
Salaries are stuck and the prices of commodities have risen.
long story short par king