Joshua, I have to tell you buddy, you are one of the best instructors on the internet (or probably anywhere). I don't mind admitting that I am a 68 year old senior citizen who, for reasons not really known to me, decided to go back to school for my MBA after I retired. The last time I attended a college class before this undertaking, was in 1973 when I got my undergrad degree. It has been difficult and, because I don't have a lot of time to waste, I am taking 12 credit a semester. Quantitative Methods has been the biggest challenge for me so far but your videos have been a Godsend. I don't know if you are teaching at a university but, you damn sure should be. It's not only the way you explain things, but also the tone of your voice and the fact that you really sound happy explaining this stuff. Keep up the fantastic work and I will echo many other comments on your page here. You are the best !!
I watched this video 4 years ago in my Bachelor Decision Sciences class and now I'm back during my Master's work because the topic is explained here in 5 minutes better than my $230 textbook!
Thank you soooo much for making these problems so much more simpler to solve. I tried watching many videos, tried step by step practice problems, and even asked tutors for help but none of these are effective as your teaching method!! Cheers!!
I just want to say thank you again, it beats me that there is a straightforward way of doing this, yet we were taught the more cumbersome one. God bless you!
LOL. My professor kept talking for more than an hour and I could not understand. I came here and understood what ES is in less than 5 minutes. THANKS, A LOT!
I made the mistake of trying to watch my professor's online lecture over and over again for a week. I wish I'd come here sooner, this cleared it up in 5 minutes!
Thank you so much for making these videos they were extremely helpful!!! You were able to teach me in 5 minutes what my professor couldn't teach me in a month!!!
Your explanation of this subject far exceeds that of the textbook I am using for my class. Thank you for taking the time to produce this exceptional video.
man you are the best ! your videos helped me a lot ! its my stats exam tomorrow and i knew nothing about forecasting, correlation and hypothesis and ur the only one who has good videos here ! thanks alot !
Who said you are the only one..? I am also living on the same earth, watching the same video, and was it by the same word, rewinded the video many times like you..while I am drinking my Darjeeling tea from India.
Thank you! Thank you! I am currently struggling in an MBA Business Analytics class and this video has helped me so much. Our professor just reads right from the text book and does not walk through any examples.
I would rather my school pays you than my lousy professor, you have taught me more in 15 minutes (3 videos) than my teacher could in two 70 minute classes
Hi Joshua, I'm here to thank you so much for your special video, if it wasn't for your video I would fail my Operation Management, class. You make operation management course feel easy, I can assure you, I don't understand my professor but your video was my savior through this class. Oh well, I pass with B+ and I give you all credit for that. Thank you so much.
Thanks a lot. It helped me understand what exactly is exponential smoothing that tableau must have used for forecasting. I was searching for its answer for quite some time and found it here.
Thank you so much for this. Please don't stop providing these helpful videos. you are straight to the point and its wonder. you made me learn this and save me from a restless night! thank you! #subscribing
The best way to forecast the first period is to take the average of the time series: 39+44+40+45+38+43+39 = 41. In so doing the forecast is more sensitive to the actual sales. Which you verify by plotting both the forecast using the first period as 41 and one demonstrated in the video, you will see that using the one in the video your sales forecast will lag behind your actual sales value.
Thank you so much you made the topic concise and to the point Please and how do i get asses to some of your lecture on other topics like moving average, probability, algorithm EOQ and Time series on demand. Thank you
Hi Joshua, The video which you have explained for simple Exponential Smoothing is really interesting and very easy to understand. Thanks for uploading the same. How to calculate the question with Holt's model with alpha = 0.05? Please let me know. Thanks, Rahul
Thanks a lot for your valuable information, do you have paper or book in Journal explain how to estimate Alpha and when Alpha should be small and when should be big?
Hello Sir, I have a question about forecasting. Should plan corrections be determined during forecasting? Or is it not necessary to determine them? Why is there an extrapolation? An extrapolation is absolutely necessary.
Joshua, I have to tell you buddy, you are one of the best instructors on the internet (or probably anywhere). I don't mind admitting that I am a 68 year old senior citizen who, for reasons not really known to me, decided to go back to school for my MBA after I retired. The last time I attended a college class before this undertaking, was in 1973 when I got my undergrad degree. It has been difficult and, because I don't have a lot of time to waste, I am taking 12 credit a semester. Quantitative Methods has been the biggest challenge for me so far but your videos have been a Godsend. I don't know if you are teaching at a university but, you damn sure should be. It's not only the way you explain things, but also the tone of your voice and the fact that you really sound happy explaining this stuff. Keep up the fantastic work and I will echo many other comments on your page here. You are the best !!
You are an inspiration to us all Bob. Never stop learning!
How's your MBA going ? :)
No you are the best!
Awesome! nearly in your 70s but still grinding and learning :)
@@danielright1515 That's what i said too
The lesson my teacher could not tell in 3 weeks made me understand in less than 5 minutes :)
Yes!!! Same here
May be the Institution had not paid him
Aynen öyle...
Lol Same here
same lool*
it has been 5 years since the video was created and it is still helping people!
I just need to understand the logic behind calculating the error!!!
I watched this video 4 years ago in my Bachelor Decision Sciences class and now I'm back during my Master's work because the topic is explained here in 5 minutes better than my $230 textbook!
spent at least 30 mins understanding and researching about how to do this and you just explained it so easily in less than 5 mins.
I wish teachers would take an example of you. Amazing and simply put explanation.
This dude is a 🐐 i learned more in this video than 2 weeks of my teacher trying to explain this to me
Fast, simple, and super useful. This is a homework saver, thank you.
Thanks for smoothing that out for me :)
...exponentially*
I see what you did there... Lol
That was smooth
literally said smooth and didnt realize it
What a zinger
Thank you soooo much for making these problems so much more simpler to solve. I tried watching many videos, tried step by step practice problems, and even asked tutors for help but none of these are effective as your teaching method!! Cheers!!
Short, precisive, insightful and straight to the point. Thank you Joshua
I just want to say thank you again, it beats me that there is a straightforward way of doing this, yet we were taught the more cumbersome one. God bless you!
LOL. My professor kept talking for more than an hour and I could not understand. I came here and understood what ES is in less than 5 minutes. THANKS, A LOT!
Your explanation is so straight forward and simple to understand. Thank you for this.
Thanks, Joshua. This video was God-sent. You are a great and effective teacher... even five years later! God bless you always.
I made the mistake of trying to watch my professor's online lecture over and over again for a week. I wish I'd come here sooner, this cleared it up in 5 minutes!
Your teaching techniques are amazing...It is extremely helpful
This Dude deserves a medal..!!! Thanks man that really helped a Lot
THANK YOU SO MUCH! I HAd NO IDEA WHAT MY PROF SAID FOR A WHOLE MONTH UNTIL I WATCH YOUR VIDEO (I thought I was too stupid for college )
Thank you so much for making these videos they were extremely helpful!!! You were able to teach me in 5 minutes what my professor couldn't teach me in a month!!!
Wow, you made this exponentially easier to understand. Thank you, Professor!
You're very welcome, Nmachi!
watched the first lecture from my professor today and couldn't grasp the concept completely. After watching your video I feel like an expert now :)
Your explanation of this subject far exceeds that of the textbook I am using for my class. Thank you for taking the time to produce this exceptional video.
man you are the best ! your videos helped me a lot ! its my stats exam tomorrow and i knew nothing about forecasting, correlation and hypothesis and ur the only one who has good videos here ! thanks alot !
You saved my life i am so grateful. i failed this course and your videos helped pass THANK YOU
Your method is great and quite easy. I ever seen many videos but your method of explanation is awosome..
Thanks a lot 😊
Believe it or not but my lecturer made this sound like rocket science. Thank you for making an easy to understand video.
Mr. Emmanuel, your videos are so very helpful. Very understandable, and to the point. Thank You!
Thank you. This is very clear and elaborate! Definitely going to ACE this!
Am I the only one hearing him say fuckass when he actually said forecast
Who said you are the only one..? I am also living on the same earth, watching the same video, and was it by the same word, rewinded the video many times like you..while I am drinking my Darjeeling tea from India.
same
Me to bro 😂😂😂
No you are not the only one man...I also seemed to hear fuckass first time.Then I realised it's forecast.
😂😂😂😂
This is the best and most useful and most clear video I ever watched on UA-cam. Thank you! really
Thank you! Thank you! I am currently struggling in an MBA Business Analytics class and this video has helped me so much. Our professor just reads right from the text book and does not walk through any examples.
i dont know how ur 5 minute explanation was better than the 2 lectures i had for this
Excellent lesson, finally got something after so many weeks. You are a great teacher
Glad to hear. 😀
You explained this with so much clarity . I got it !!!😊😊You are awesome.
Thank you! So simple... I understood this before but forgot about it and your video was very helpful
I would rather my school pays you than my lousy professor, you have taught me more in 15 minutes (3 videos) than my teacher could in two 70 minute classes
You are a life saver man ❤
Thank you so much for your help! Spent an hour and a half lecture on this not understanding what you taught me in 5 mins.
Here in 2024! Thanks for sharing such as great content.
You're indeed a nice tutor, heartly congrats from JKUAT ,Kenya🔥💯
Nice to get a shout-out from Kenya. Thanks, Vince.
@@joshemman Your impact is felt all over the world🔥💯
👏👏👏well done! I always look for your videos when my professor gives me any tasks🌹 clear, bold, and easy to understand as usual 🙏
Super super helpful, credits go to you if I pass my exam in a few weeks!! Quick and efficient video, thank you!
more like in two hours
Time series model
Roy Plays have some respect & stfu
Excellent! Thank you. Well described and easy to understand. Saved me lots of time.
That's really helpful! Thank you! But I still have a question. How did you get alpha? Is it just the ordinary intercept? Or another parameter?
I have the same question. can somebody help us?
thank you so much. now I understand how to calculate the exponential smoothing
Glad it helped!
Thanks Josh for saving our lives 😀❤️
Straight to the point and crystal clear! Wish he was my tutor!
Thank you so much, I can only learn this stuff by your videos! Thank you for making these videos, some people really need this.
Hi Joshua,
I'm here to thank you so much for your special video, if it wasn't for your video I would fail my Operation Management, class. You make operation management course feel easy, I can assure you, I don't understand my professor but your video was my savior through this class. Oh well, I pass with B+ and I give you all credit for that. Thank you so much.
Thanks for leaving the note. I'm glad it helps.
Thanks a lot. It helped me understand what exactly is exponential smoothing that tableau must have used for forecasting. I was searching for its answer for quite some time and found it here.
Great presentation & explaination Sir. Glory to Jesus...Amen
This is very helpful in my research work. The long process has been described and explained accordingly.
Thank you very much for this video! May I ask when Moving Average is used and when Exponential Smoothing is used? Thank you!
Wow this is made my homework so much easier! Thank you very much for your clear explanation!
This guy is my hero.
So clear and we'll explained. Thank you so much. 100% clear
Most important teching method is so simple and easy to understand. Thank you so much sir
Very well explained both verbally and via example! Thank you!
Thank youuuuu!!! You saved me hours of over-studying!
Thanks for the great explanation. Question - okay on your example you have data up to week 7 and you need to forecast week 12, how do you do it?
ive been skipping class cause prof. is a snore, thanks to you I may actually enjoy the class!
YOU ARE SAVING MY LIFE RIGHT NOW. THANK YOU
wAOOOOOOO. Jashua. God bless you sir. You have made it so simple......U are the best teacher in the world sir .God bless you.
Very nice to have grip on basics of SES.
Wow crispy clear and make it sounds so simple to understand
Thank you so much for this. Please don't stop providing these helpful videos. you are straight to the point and its wonder. you made me learn this and save me from a restless night! thank you! #subscribing
this was so easy to understand omg thank you for sharing such info!
Thank You. 4 Hours of university in 5 minutes :D
This among your other videos are excellent! I actually taught myself something thanks to you.
Thanks bro . Very short but insightful and very loaded. Kudos
so smooth that was, and your soothing voice does help. Thank You
What is the significance of Mean Square Error? Is it need to be less than a threshold to validate the forecasting? If yes, how to find the threshold?
thank you so much for your simple explanation.. plz do video on exponential smoothing with trend adjustment
You really saved me on this exam I have tomorrow!
Great explanation Mr. Joshua!
Hi Joshua. what does the value of MSE teach us ? Have we underforecasted or over foretasted and during what period?
Thanks for the video. !
The best way to forecast the first period is to take the average of the time series: 39+44+40+45+38+43+39 = 41. In so doing the forecast is more sensitive to the actual sales. Which you verify by plotting both the forecast using the first period as 41 and one demonstrated in the video, you will see that using the one in the video your sales forecast will lag behind your actual sales value.
you deserve everything
Super loved it....My teacher also could not fix it for me and you did..Regards...from INDIA
You're videos are the best
Whole world's godfather bless you all always and you all remember him always.
Thank you the video was amazing but I question Why we should assume A1=F1?
Thank you so much you made the topic concise and to the point Please and how do i get asses to some of your lecture on other topics like moving average, probability, algorithm EOQ and Time series on demand. Thank you
Thank you so much for explaining so well.
I was having trouble understanding my textbook and your video cleared it up for me! Thank you so much for doing this! :)
Thank you so much. You made it much easier.
Question: Will alpha always be given or is there a way to find out which alpha is the best fit?
www.excel-easy.com/examples/exponential-smoothing.html Late but I found this helpful
Muchas gracias, muy bien explicado, te quiero mucho
Hi Joshua, The video which you have explained for simple Exponential Smoothing is really interesting and very easy to understand. Thanks for uploading the same. How to calculate the question with Holt's model with alpha = 0.05?
Please let me know.
Thanks,
Rahul
omg thank you so much, I am literally pulling an all nighter and u helped me so much
Wow thx really help! Greeting from indonesia 🇮🇩
Thanks a lot for your valuable information, do you have paper or book in Journal explain how to estimate Alpha and when Alpha should be small and when should be big?
Thank you for the very informative video, but I was wondering how would you forecast Week 9, and 10?
You can only forecast one period into the future using this method.
My business class mention about this topic and didn't tell me how to do it, only mention it's harder than simple moving average.
This was great, thank you!
Super easy and simple... Thanks :)
You are welcome 😊
Thank you so much! This was very simple to understand
Hello Sir,
I have a question about forecasting. Should plan corrections be determined during forecasting? Or is it not necessary to determine them? Why is there an extrapolation? An extrapolation is absolutely necessary.
That was a really clear and easy to understand explanation. Thanks!