Alabama vs Tennessee Preview, Prediction, & Computer Model - College Football 2024
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- Опубліковано 18 жов 2024
- Alabama is rolling into Rocky Top for the Third Saturday in October with playoff hopes in their pocket. But does their mediocre showing vs South Carolina indicate they're not good enough? Will UT get some confidence after their come from behind win over Florida?
As an outsider looking in, the SEC is much more interesting when Tennessee is good. Now adding a tough Texas team as well is making this the best SEC season for me in the last 15 years or so. This game and Georgia v Texas is great for the game.
Guys, thanks for the breakdown! I listened to this right when it came out on podcast and was confused by the model. Why did you say the model predicts Bama 26.2 - TN 25.5? On the website it said 13.7 to 19.2 in favor of UT. I thought there might have been a data refresh issue so I checked the next day and it still said that. But I just checked tonight and it now says 26.2-26.1 in favor of Bama.
What's happening when we see those changes?
This is SUCH a hard game to pick. It’s a true 50/50 game. It really depends on which Alabama team shows up. The one that beat Georgia or the one that lost to Vanderbilt. I’m giving Tennessee the slight edge because of where it’s being played. Knoxville’s gonna be rocking.
Agree. Right now I'd pick the whichever team was the home team which in this case is TN.
as a bama fan i agree. if we show up like the team that beat georgia we will stomp tennessee, if we show up like vandy or south carolina we will lose.
@@ChaseMcCollum the key for Bama is to get out to a fast start and stay on the gas
I mean, Vanderbilt is not as bad as you think. in fact, I think they're better this year compared to the past few decades. They did better against Kentucky than Georgia did. I blame NIL.
@@jonathanbradley6709 I agree, but Bama did not play well in that game
Before I got to the end was thinking Bama needs to blitz and they need at least 150 yards rushing. Good video
As a Bama fan, I’m always worried when you pick us. I agree that if we get back to blitzing and dictating on defense, we can be elite, but if Wommack keeps trying to just call Cover 1 all day, we’ll get torched
Roll Tide!
Bama has more potential but we have issues.
DeBoer will figure it out.
New HC, OC, and DC.
Top 10 1st year, top 5 next year is all I expect.
#alliexpect
Great coverage as usual! I just don’t think Tennessee has the speed to keep up with Alabama. Bama 30,Tenn 21
Love the show guys! I have watched every episode hoping that y'all talk about LSU at some point this year. Keep up the great work!
With football becoming increasingly matchup driven, how would you guys say that affects the quality of your relative performance data. For example, if Alabama holds Georgia to 85% of their passing average and 70% of their rushing average, I would say thats pretty good.....but that same defense could also allow 100% of Vandy's passing and rushing averages. How do you wll reconcile that data when making comparisons across teams (for rankings)? Or would you say those rankings for defense are almost impossible to do? Maybe you wouldn't say that at all, but Im just starting a conversation for the comment section 😂
Our system can take into account run dependencies, pass dependencies, etc., but it can’t account for true scheme matchup issues. This is why we’re big on using analytics as a tool for human analysis. We obviously agree with several commenters that Bama is probably better built defensively to stop Tennessee. The thing people are sleeping on is that Tennessee’s defense might stop Bama
This game is nearly impossible to predict because both teams have looked great on one side of the ball and very flawed on the other side of the ball. I think Alabama is the better overall team, and the more battle tested team, and I trust Deboer and Milroe in big games more than I do Heupel and Nico, but Neyland is a huge equalizer. I’ll take Alabama to win 31-26 in a game that both sides are nervous the entire way.
I think the Tennessee O breakdown is spot on. Sampson is great, but rushing game is average. Nico can pick you apart, but hasn’t had time to. What’s the common denominator there? Poor O line play
I’m genuinely appalled at how little we pressure the quarterback. It’s like they’re afraid of their secondary being unable to act quickly if pressure gets to the QB. Nico eval is on point and I think that the Alabama defense has a lot of changes needing to be made
Alabama got tons of pressure vs SC with only 4. Sellers is just a wizard at escaping it.
@@CollegeFootballNerds I should clarify: successful pressure hahahah
Bama defensive profile numbers are embarrassing! That is not the Bama Standard!!
*Saban’s standard.
Tennessee roasted Saban’s defense 2 years ago. Absolutely embarrassed Saban
@@MH-0101Alabama has had a good defensive team since before Saban
@@chrisvinson1165 LOL
What Bama also ran into in that 22 game wqs BoB wanting to pass it instead of running, getting 1 yard, making a fg easier and making sure there was no time left on the clock
28-23 AL. This is a much better matchup for AL than USC/Vandy with their triple option bullshit. Deboer teams tend to play up or down to their competition and almost always win by 1 score besides a mid Wisconsin this year and 10 points vs an 8-5 USC last year with Williams. Vs top 5s of Oregon, Texas, and UGA he was up by 17/13/28 and barely won them all but he did win. I can see Alabama going up by 13ish into 4th then UTk scores a TD gets 2 points and almost drives to win like those teams but fails.
Thanks, just what is Bama fans need,,,,more nail biting
@@johnotto4931 just being real man. Who cares if Deboer finishes the rest of the season undefeated by 2 points each?
@@PurpleHazeVanNederlands I’ll take it
I wouldn't be so quick to assume Bama is scoring 30 points on the road in Neyland. Not saying they aren't capable, but I wouldn't be overly confident in it happening considering Tennessee hasn't even given up 20 points yet in a single game.
As much as it pains me to say it, the UGA game showed what we're potentially capable of when we really want to be while the last two weeks showed us who we actually are most of the time this season. I think we will come to fight but i gotta give the edge to TN at home on this one. 26-20. I hope my prediction is wrong but that just feels like the kind of game it's going to be.
You Guys Are Great! Love The Way You Break It Down So That Us Football Idiots Can Understand😊
I was shocked to see Arkansas is 8th in total offense. I was hoping to see Tennessee hadn’t played a functioning offense, and the other teams they have played are way down the total offense rankings, yet 8th nationally in total yards by Arkansas was better than I expected.
I realize that doesn’t tell the whole story but was surprised. Hope hogs beat LSU!
Great video guys, thanks
MIlrose's recurring low-IQ play can strike at any moment, effectively negate momentum, kill team morale, and override the on-field gains produced by his phenomenal athleticism: that is the proverbial Bama-elephant in the room; that is the terrifying realization: and that is why you hold your breath throughout the game, if you are Bama fan.
Are Josh's shelves not level, or is that a camera lens illusion?
I can’t un-see that now.
@@brerrabbit3289 - Sorry for that.
It’s the same shelves as always, but I think my camera position is creating an issue there optically
But he has cool nicknacks so that cancels it out!
@@CollegeFootballNerdsus nerd fans would like to see a level placed on those shelves.
Spread the wealth, Milroe has so many weapons at reciever RTR
In the last two games Nico has really struggled to throw an accurate ball over 7 yards. If he doesn’t improve Saturday Bama will walk away with it
I really think it’s about footwork. If he’s allowed to set his feet and throw with timing he’s super accurate. When he’s not, and most good defenses will force you to move, his accuracy falls off considerably:
well I feel much better now. RTR
Hot takes. Alabama will run efficiently.
Tough game. I see Bama as able to be brought into a fist fight. Yes, they can pop off, but I have seen them unable to move the ball for long periods at a time.
I still like Bama here as I trust Tennessee even less. Bama 28 Tennessee 17
With Game in Knoxville TN and both Teams struggling a little have to lean towards Home Team.. Josh Pate Computer Model is calling for outright Upset he is leaning towards Bama.. I am thinking Tennessee 31 - 27. Hope I am wrong
Vols have not been doing 4 wide.
Fire Wommack and DeBoer
Alabama 34
Tennessee 33
R T R
Alabama gets too much credit for the GA win. The last time I saw GA play that poorly was the loss to SC. I’m going with the home team.
33-30 ROLL TIDE!
It’s going to be a long day for bama but I’m hopefully😅😅😅
Is Josh Huskypup?
I expect the intitled millionaires to care about preperation this week. A lot of people dont understand ,you can tell if a teams minds were focused during game prep during the week.
If Bama scores first, Tennessee doesn't stand a chance, for all the reasons you all named.
on the flip side, if Tennessee scores first, Bama can fight back, but Tennessee will likely run clock management like Vanderbilt, which is not a part of their identity, so i just don't see a Tennessee win.
It pains me to say this, but Tennessee is actually a good team, but they just aren't built to beat Bama, UGA, Ohio state etc (talent wise or schematically.)
Also, if Tennessee plays fast, that is the type of game Bama wants, because it gives our offense more opportunities...IMO
31-21 Bama
I want both teams to lose!! Go Dawgs!!
Damnnnn. It’s about time… lol
The only team bama played early was Wisconsin whos QB got injured in the 1st quarter they have play 1 good half of defense against teams with better than average talent
Imagine struggling with UF and losing to the hawgs, A&M could never, give me 41-23 Bama. I think they return to form after a pretty awful defensive showing the last 2 weeks.
How bout struggling with SC and losing to Vanderbilt?
@drewc771 counterpoint - beating UGA and Wisconsin are both infinitely better than...
*checks notes*
... OU, Kent State, Chattanooga and NC Stats. The reality of the situation is, when the Vols have played somebody with a pulse, they've struggled.
@@AceMan-20 I mean ok, but that's a "counterpoint" of an argument I didn't actually make.
Both of these teams have looked mediocre at best over the last 2 weeks. If I had to guess one of these teams will have a good performance and probably win going away.
Bama 38-28 RTR 🐘 🏈🎉💪
Yall obviously didnt watch the Florida Tennessee game. To state that Florida didn't do much throughout the game is laughable (19:15). They literally ran and threw up and down the field but stalled in the redzone. Dislike
They had 13 drives and only 3 went 40 yards. They had 5 non-scoring drives of 5 plays or less. You remember the couple long drives because they were most of the clock but in reality MOST of their drives went absolutely nowhere.
Tennessee is not an RPO or a zone read team.....
The big question is which SEC officiating crew shows up in Knoxville??? If they allow Tenn dbs to hold Bama receivers and the Tenn OL to hold Bama DL and LBs = close game. If called straight up Bama by 10+. 2022 the Refs should have just worn orange
There is only one thing that everyone in the SEC knows and agrees on except Bama fans, Bama gets by far the most beneficial officiating calls in the league and it’s not even remotely close. Tennessee will point out to dominating Bama in the first half in 2023 and that game was only close when Refs made some horrendous mistakes in the second half. There could be videos on how to not officiate a game made just on that one half. On the flip side no team has less opponents penalties in the past 10 games than Tennessee.
@@zacharyfisher8152 2022 Knoxville phantom PI call AFTER it was returned for a TD..... I rest my case
@@zacharyfisher8152the only reason people would agree with you is because they hate Bama and scrutinize them more than other teams.
Bama 31 -23
30-10 Bama
Nerds Model has it
Vols 19 to Bama 13
Why didn’t they show that?
No it doesn't? It says 26.2 AL vs 26.1 UTk
34-30 Tennessee
Bama 27 Tennessee 20. ROLL TIDE ROLLLLLL
46-42 Tennessee.
Tennessee 56 Alabama 21
Tide wins 33-31
Alabama 28
Tennessee 17
Bamas problems are effort, discipline, and performance! Bama is statistically the most talented team in the country! It's not talent! It's when your not doing your job, making mistakes and underperforming instead of getting discipline they get icecream, hugs, and kind words!! Teams play as their coached!
Malachi Moore runs the team instead of any of the coaches, the coaches told him to get off the field and he told them all no and ignored them! Saban wouldn’t have any of that
DeBoer ran his team the exact same way last year and took his team to a natty. Give him a chance
I disagree. Alabama is like the fifth most talented team behind Georgia, Ohio State, Texas and Oregon.
I'm not quite persuaded. Maybe if you used more exclamation points!
That’s a lie. The team plays hard. You are just miserable fan who loves to complain and spread your negative BS
Tennessee wins 😎
Vandy beat Bama because Bama wouldn’t get out off cover 1 man
I know that was the refrain from one of the big channels, but I don't know that we agree with it. Cover-1 man is a very typical way to defend a lot of the looks that Vandy gives, and other teams have been successful with it. Vandy beat Bama because Bama played cover-1 man poorly.
Arkansas and Oklahoma are 2 better defenses than bamas
Sec homers all the way 0:24
Dude that makes no sense at all. Was it Because he said the words Tennessee and Alabama? You do know that's what this video is about right? SMDH
@@Bamamike223I’ve been with this channel since they were secfans- all I’m saying is I enjoy the SEC coverage. It just means more.
@@brerrabbit3289 I hear ya
Bama just not that good anymore. Give me Tennessee to win.
I hate Alabama. That’s all I got say
Respect
Tennessee wins 31-24
Alabama-38
Tennessee-20
Arkansas is not a good defense
Bama 28-24