Bitcoin: Social Risk
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- Опубліковано 29 вер 2024
- Let us talk about the #Bitcoin social risk!
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who is still here
Who isn’t💀
Yes 💯🙌
Me :)
☝️🥳-notice how the *Real Ben* is highlighted and UA-cam verified☑️
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I refreshed the video a million times to bump up the social risk for us.
Thanks good chap!
gods work in action
😆
Dominance in less then a minute! It's such a conversation starter!
ben can you make an analysis about what is happening in todays altcoin market? bcs fomo is starting to hit me right now. thanks really appreciate it
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Cold shower
Wouldn't lock downs and covid not have anything to so with extra views. Also crypto became mainstream during that time.
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Eth will it get back to 4K or not till end of 2025
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Since 2020 Ben
Long time follower. Would like to see you starting to compare SOL with BTC instead of ETH. It's pretty well established that SOL is the new ETH for this cycle.
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Title is wrong, this is another Bitcoin dominance video.
If you're new to crypto, you were lucky to find Ben's channel early on. He's the first to admit that he doesn't get everything right, but he's got a pretty good batting average, and nobody gets it right all the time. Most importantly, you can trust him.... no shilling, exchange links, or even ads!
Never left 💪🏻
we really gotta lengthen these videos. I'm having to watch at .25x speed just to get the normal duration
????
You had me at “what’s a few trillion amongst friends”
Not sure why we are overthinking social risk here. It seems directly tied to price. I don’t think it’s anymore complicated than that. Number goes up, viewers go up.
Btc put in new highs and social risk did not go up that much
☝️🙄-notice how the *Real Ben* is highlighted and UA-cam verified☑️
Sorry bro followed you for 3 years straight. But that last btc.d push i dont thinnk it will happen. SEI pumped like 100% already i csnt wait no longer or alt season is over before i buy
Tone Vays' channel is no more crypto channel. It personal/ political channel. You should subscribe for his financial summit channel for bitcoin trading
One thought: how big do you think the total number of people that are interested in crypto (retail) is it going to be asymptotically? My point is that it can‘t go up forever. Might make sense to plot it in total amount of followers instead of new followers too in log?
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Love the 10min intro when you hooked back realizing it's actually about the social risk metrics 😂
What are your (or any other person watching this video) views on SP500 crashing soon and ending the expected bull market early? Every time SP500 crashed for more then 10-15 % it really obliterated BTC and other cryptos. And SP500 is currently really overpriced at P/E=30
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You don't have Lark Davis?
Mr. Cowen, just remember what Klaus Schwab said "this will be the biggest wealth transfer in history" so the Exit liquidity needs to come back in first
And then they will steel all ur money except ur smart and have assets which are hard to take from u.. probably not digital shitcoins
@@ksize7058how they can steal especially Bitcoin from you?
Ben I think you need to update this metric for it to have value - You're including UA-camrs like BitBoy crypto who was massively relevant last cycle but is not anymore.
Sometimes you just follow someone and lot, see few of their predictions come true, start believing them even more such that their word becomes the Be all. Ben is that guy for me. However still feel his view on retail coming back just because of rate cuts is myopic!
Retail comes back when social media and your dinner table is full of people making millions from crypto! So whatever catalyst causes markets to really boom will also cause retail to come back up
November will be be game changer if 50 comes and i think.25 as the election plays the big game.
I'm confused. When are we gonna buy ALTs?
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Wht happen to Eth /BTc if recession come . May B.D to above 60?
Take a tequilla shot every time he mentiones BTC.d
Wake me up when you views go over 250K again 💎🙌
Crypto soared in 2020 because of unimaginable fiscal and monetary stimulus full stop.
Think about it: they handed out trillions in transfer payments. Individuals were getting paid more to stay home than to work. Billions in fraudulent PPP loans went into homes, cars, boats, RVs, and speculative investments. Those events are unlikely to repeat in our lifetimes. So, what drives the next cycle in crypto?
For Bitcoin to double from here ($130,000), we'd need a $1.26 trillion liquidity injection. Where's that coming from?
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War. And a job crisis. =10 trilion total cap.
@@babarain99 To go from $2.18 trillion to $10 trillion is like adding three Nvidia's in value, very unlikely.
Are we at peak apathy yet. I promised myself I would make it longer than those people
The social risk went to 0 in August i believe, on that 49k wick
Takes 3 rate cut for people to have enough savings from work to invest in crypto，
LFG LIQ going up CHINA PRINTING EVERYONE PRINTING
Instructions unclear, I’m hearing Bitcoin dominance in the video
retail invester is exist liquidity. retail invester comes at the top comes too late. you should not care about retail invester indicator. right now it does not mean anything
I am greens will all time high and just sell off to either pay of any debt and cash on side for a buy deep discounts
Want if retail my not be alto buy dips to buy BTC at new lows around 60k when I might be selling to retailers at my highs and we have may not see till rate cuts 3.75 as the new president may cause more inflation
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You never talk about the fact that big money is not interested in ETH and retail can't make up for this!
Therefore BTC.d will continue to go up forever!
BTC.d will form a W pattern over 8 years!!!
Honestly, I can see something like this happening up until something else comes and changes the game
@@kyle9401 kaspa…
Ben until today i see your videos '' bearish'' now are u becoming BULL?
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Yes cause we're getting rate cuts
@@Slenderman63323 QE is not
is ive lost my gf and many friends over last few years im about to get them all back lol
Ben when the landing is expected whether soft or hard. And if recession comes when it may be expected. Love from Pakistan
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Ben, I think the social risk metric would also have a diminishing return, possibly higher than bitcoin itself- considering this perhaps a part of the formula should include new social media users in general for these platforms? Idk I might be way off but I think this every time i watch your social risk metric videos. Mad respect for you and all you do for us. Thank you!
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Agree.
Oddly though the social risk went higher in 2021 than 2017?
Thanks for the great contents Ben; one important question tho: If you believe that ETH/BTC has almost bottomed in this cycle, why do you still keep your portfolio Bitcoin-heavy?
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Bitcoin time!
I’m retail and I’m ready to deploy my 2K$ to move the market (I have less time to watch bitcoin videos though because I have a job and a family now)
Who else is here watching this video in 2024
Cant watch u draw the S from the top and the 5 from the bottom 😂
So if dominance drops does the price also?
Sometimes....usually! Haha
Not always, during the Last bullrun dominance droped and usd went up. 😊
No it just means alts do better relative to BTC.. so if BTC goes up 10% alts might go up 20%. If BTC drops 20% alts only drop 10%.
Although i agree that BTC dominance can continue higher, I think at this point its important to start hedging some bets and convert at least some btc to other coins.
1st
The youtube algo doesn't favor "old channels". Try create a new account and ride the new wave, it would likely give much different results.
Just like altcoins oddly enough 🤣 Cowen dominance 🤔
Bitcoin: Dominance
I started watching videos of Benjamin Cowen but English is not my mother language and I don’t understand some of the terms he explains… could someone tell me when I should buy BTC at good price? Thanks!
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Dollar cost average is the safest strategy. Buy a set amount every week or month (i.e. $20 a week or $100 a month) regardless of the price
How big is actual US audience on these channels?
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Thanks Ben. But maybe this should have been titled Dubious (social risk) Speculation!
Lets get that Crypto!
Not to mention there is lots more channels now too.
Man i love your video's and your views godtier level analist.
Tbh im getting scared, alts are on fire i wait this week out. But i think btc.d topped.
what exactly are you scared of? If you think dominance topped, then act accordingly
☝️🙄-notice how the *Real Ben* is highlighted and UA-cam verified☑️
When moon?
Or has retail returned via ETF?
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Judging by the flows on the ETH spot ETF, no.
Definitely cutting 50bps next time
Great stuff. Curious why 60% BTCD is your target before alt season while some other UA-camrs are saying it topped at 58.5?
0.618 fib retracement from the breakdown point
Most have been calling the top for years now... 😉. Eventually they must be right
Commenting, liking, and viewing from 3 devices to drive the social risk up
I'm retail. We're all retail.
reporting for duty
Dimensioning returns on subs and views
Very interested to see how it play out down the road. Definitely coming back to this video in the future
It IS Twitter. It will ALWAYS be Twitter.🙃
Yay🎉
Waiting for your video! thanks ben
Thanks Ben!
Love those 5’s 😂😂😂
Retail didn’t come back because people are out of money and out of jobs. Too many people got screwed by stupid NFTs.
BTC going to 40k by end of 2024
oh they will be back, in 2025 when its near the top
I feel like those stupid nfts ruined the idea of the whole thing for a lot of people and I don't blame them. Partly why BTC.d has been up for so long maybe?!
I hope you’re right
❤❤❤
Just bought a bunch of leveraged shorts. I’ll buy leveraged longs tomorrow.
Luv your TA and all the democratic from fed, to market maker and the really paying more attention to the details and watch u more
Bitcoin: Social Risk (aka BTC.D)
This has been my podcast for the past 3 years. I will miss you btc dominance
Have watched and still watching every video since day 1
Correlation does not imply causation
What an intro, I audibly guffawed
the way he write numbers on screen.....bro :)))))))))))
Where's crypto crew U?
Steve's one of the goats
Love Ben's Math view on crypto
Bullish on Ben writing 5s
very good insight thank you
Some of us are still here 😂
what an intro
Luv you dawg
Thanks Ben!
Honey... I will be late today.. my boss wants me finish up some work
34:37 min late
Rates have nothing to do with bitcoin price. Look at the MOVE index pre-pandemic crash. It was moving up and Global M2 was moving sideways. With a lag this caused Bitcoin to go down. Bitcoin only cares about liquidity. Now we have fiscal dominance. M2 is pumping and the MOVE is dropping. Bitcoin is pumping with a lag as expected.
Hi Ben, I’m from Japan.
I always appreciate your great contents.
I believe that the market will crash before the end of this year just like in 2007 and 2001. I would like to know your perspective about 10y-2y yield spread. Would it be the signal of the Great Recession?
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You're definitely right that some type of crash will hit the market eventually. However, recessions don't always occur immediately after the 10Y2Y uninversion. It can take several months sometimes. As for whether we see a crash, in the majority of previous US recessions the stock market still continued to head up for the next few months even after the recession was declared (in the 80s and 90s it tended to do that). It's almost impossible to know when the recession will actually begin to kick off. It seemed like the carry trade unwind was about to start the crash but the market dodged it. The bank failures of 2023 also came close I feel.
Not likely this year. It takes time after un inversion.
Very impressive to even try to chart humans ability to want to buy tulips multiplied by some itineration of Metcalf’s law. Well done!
Can't compare the cuts because 0% is not happening again unless something crazy happens
Ben do you really think BTC dominance will go down significantly? You can argue the new generation that joins the crypto wave might want quick gains and invest in alts. But people who got in last cycle burnt their hands with alts might not be keen anymore. Fundamentals matter! Esp with VCs looking at retail as exit liquidity for majority alts. I bet… BTC remains the safest asset with decent returns in the next bull run.
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I do, and I think you're trying to apply too much logic. It's common in markets to oscillate between risk on small caps and risk off big caps/dividend paying. Gains and losses are magnified in small caps so they are favored in loose monetary conditions. What's happening in crypto isn't odd, it's very typical, no reason to expect this time is any different. I'd even wager the alt market will be even hotter than the last one since this will be the second cycle and a more matured market.
your social risk theory is intrinsically flawed due to the fact that you are not capturing new influencers follows and also not taking a wholistic look at it, but taking a sample of just a few.
No matter what I do, people will always complain. I used to have this just for 10 channels, now it’s 25-30. I could add 100 more and you would still whine about it
💯☝️lol🙄-notice how the *Real Ben* is highlighted and UA-cam verified☑️
@@intothecryptoverse I appreciate your content and sorry if my reply was terse, I just feel this indicator isn't the most relevant. You do great work not meant to be a jab at you, just I think the whole social risk thing needs to be further looked into. I think it is a powerful way to look at it just we gotta figure out the perfect way for it to be worth really depending on imo. Anyways appreciate your work!
ADA/BTC please :)
Cowen.D