Not strong by MCU standards and yet like 60% of the MCU has opened under $100M 😂. Man that 2018 - 2019 run REALLY skewed how people think all these movies are supposed to perform.
Exactly right , they had few big opening and half of them were marketing magic. Hyping up bad movies and only 2-4 good movies had big openings n rest of them were way below biggest movie opening n still people consider otherwise. It shows how easily people can be fooled by good marketing
Exactly lol. I think people forget that this movie is more so technically a "captain america 1" that's spun off from the original trilogy instead of "captain america 4", so it's fitting that it's gonna match around the thor 1 / guardians 1 / antman 1 numbers. If they decide to give mackie an entire trilogy I'm sure the numbers will go up more for the next 2 movies
Bucky’s relationship was much better developed, but if you read between the lines at the end of Endgame, it’s pretty obvious Bucky was approached first and turned it down due to his instability. The show did a good job of showing why Sam was worthy of the mantle though, which is more important than a gradual passing.
@@accordgolfer Agreed, but they at least talked about what to do with the mantle since Bucky knew he wasn't seeing him again while Sam was surprised. Bucky knew Steve's plan.
Why is there so much UNNECESSARY emphasis on this “passing the mantle” to Sam Wilson?!?!?! 🧐 A whole series was dedicated towards that and explained the nuances of it! Just grab your popcorn, enjoy the full screen experience of Sam being the New Captain America, and him solving the latest global threat!!! 💪🏾👍🏾
If it gets to 95 million then it would be the 2nd biggest opening for a Captain America movie and if the reviews are good then I think the opening weekend can get to 110-120 million which would be a win.
A Hollywood Reporter article from last May confirmed that the July reshoots, which lasted only 22 days, were the only set of reshoots for the movie. So when people say it's gone through multiple reshoots that lasted months and the budget is 350 million is misinformation from an earlier article on a less reliable website.
I thought even John talked about how so much of this film was reshot. Cap 4 and Daredevil were deep into development when the Disney CEO switch happened and instead of releasing both those projects as they were, Feige got his control back, stopped everything, and started reshooting. I just hope those reshoots paid off and they were able to take a mid, or even bad movie, and make it great. Same goes for Daredevil.
this is relieving news to me. all i really hope for is to walk out liking this film a lot and to see it make some money. i was not asking for Endgame level results.
My 10 most anticipated 2025 movies 10. 28 Years Later 9. Captain America: Brave New World 8. Five Nights at Freddy's 2 7. Fantastic Four 6. I Know What You Did Last Summer 5. Avatar: Fire and Ash 4. Heart Eyes 3. Jurassic World: Rebirth 2. Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning 1. Superman
I’ve been excited since I saw the first trailer. Sam’s been with us since Winter Soldier so I am completely onboard with him being given the shield and inheriting the title Captain America.
Thank You Finally someone says it!! everyone seems to be so fake saying copy and paste stuff about how it’s not steve so it’ll suck as if it does it has anything to do with the same character😂😂
we need to stop saying "by MCU standards." whenever people say that, they're really just comparing whatever solo film is coming out to Infinity War/Endgame/No Way Home
Cap's passing of the shield to Sam was perfect to me! If you look back starting from Winter Soldier to Endgame you can see CLEARLY that Steve was grooming Sam to take on the shield after him.
It was a bad call as Sam Wilsons character was boring, just a soldier who used to wear a wingpack in the army and now is the falcon. Unlike Bucky who had deep trauma, a deeper past and overall better character progression and he also had super serum formula. Sam wilson landing in supersonic speed and not breaking his kneecaps is goofy af to me
As for box office numbers, I think its going to do big, few reasons why: 1) We never had marvel movie for awhile now (not counting kraven) and people want to watch the next big blockbuster by marvel prime 2) This will be a new phase for MCU with xmen and f4 characters involved after RDJ announced as Doom 3) Harrison Ford as Red Hulk (major reason)
I didn't see the ending of End Game with Old Man Steve as a passing of the shield but a conclusion of the Steve Rogers' story. And starting Sam Wilson's Captian America story in a streaming TV series was a mistake because streaming series aren't really considered as canon or as valuable as movies. For most movie goer's, me included, Brave New World will be the introduction of Captain Sam America.
Agreed. Never should have had the streaming series. The end of End Game with Steve giving Sam the shield was a really powerful scene in my opinion. And the way Sam accepted it with his earnest "I'll do my best" was just great. I'm hoping this movie does well! (and is well made of course).
Comparing BNW to the top openings of the mcu is such a weird angle to take. Like what?? Most of the top mcu movies are amongst the Top 10 of all time, this is what we’re putting this movie against?? 1. This is the problem with not having a new Cap movie in 6 years post Endgame. 2, if this was Steve, the conversation would be different If BNW comes out with the top of these projections, BNW will be the 2nd biggest Captain America movie. That’s the comparison, not the top of the mcu. That’s just unfair. And it’s been 6 years since they gave Sam the shield, I’m tired of hearing this ‘Steve is cap’ line every time Sam is talked about.
Yeah right.. Civil War only did a Billion bc it was a mini Avengers movie. The winter soldier only made 700 million bc yes it was a good movie but that’s when the mcu started its peak.. The First Avenger only made 370M.. dont act like Steve is a big box office draw
@ 1. First Avenger was the first movie about a relatively unknown character at the time. 2. 700 is much more than this movie will make. 3. Steve is the lead of Civil War and his name is all over it.
1. First Avenger was the first movie about a relatively unknown character at the time. 2. 700 is much more than this movie will make. 3. Steve is the lead of Civil War and his name is all over it.
Marvel has a lot of trust to earn back from audiences. Cap 4's first weekend will be important, but I think it's 2nd weekend is what really matters. If Cap 4 is Marvel firing on all cylinders, will those good reviews and good word of mouth bring those scorned movie goers back to see an MCU film? They'd likely be going on the 2nd weekend after they've heard good things about it. If the film isn't so good and is on the level of most other post End Game MCU projects, it's going to be another huge blow to Marvel. Let's hope this film is on the level of Winter Soldier, then we'll see if people show up in weeks 2 and 3.
But its not that Sam came out from nowhere. We've know the guy since "Winter Soldier" and we got his transition to Captain America in his own series. XD Personally, I think its gonna be a fun movie. :)
@@carlosrodrigoaguirre1788 Totally agree. There's clearly a group bias against Sam as Captain America and they're using lame excuses like "he's boring and uninteresting" to cover it up. They fail to acknowledge the fact that he was the natural successor to Steve
Translation, John says he 'likes' Anthony Mackie', but he's unsure that he can carry the mantle of Captain America because all this time he was a secondary character.
I'm totally watching it in the theater but even I that am an enthusiast of Marvel don't have too much hype about it. Sam Wilson on the MCU never really had that much charisma or back story to generate hype for something like this specially when without the other support cast and even Red Hulk which is probably a higher point feels so wasted to not have him actually fight or even just talk to Bruce Banner. The only thing holding this movie by a thread is the hope that the story itself is crazy good because there's barely any wonder that even a movie like Eternals had. The hope that this movie actually builds something cool in the universe including an actual hype post credit scene is higher with Feige more focused but the trust is still shaken that they'll actually deliver
I'm honestly worried about this movie. I don't care whatsoever that Sam has taken up the role of Cap--I loved Falcon and Winter Soldier and what they did with his character to make him earn the title. What I'm worried about is that it sounds like this movie is going to be at least 50% reshoots, which almost never turns out well.
The first teaser that focused on the drama piqued my interest, but then what they've shown since like those Disney+ tier lookin action scenes has made think this will be more Secret Invasion than Winter Soldier.
i think a lot of John’s viewers never seem to acknowledge that they are movie fans and think/want the general population to be as hyped for the movie as they are, and they aren’t
@Phizzo4real Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania also opened in February and had the franchise's highest opening weekend, which was over $100 million. However, its overall box office being a disappointment can be largely attributed to many people not liking it and poor word-of-mouth.
It started filming before 'Deadpool & Wolverine'. It has six different writers, a director that was rumored to have been removed from filming.. It had 22 days of reshoots in May of 2023, than again in June of 2023, than again in mid-2024, and then rumors ran that they are going to reshoot all the way up until release with many people backing this claim. That's four reshoots. You have to be insane to lie about this stuff.
The problem is not what the film makes on opening weekend , it's what happens at the 2nd weekend and beyond where films have fallen off a cliff week 2.
The question should be, are audiences invested in low-tiered characters enough for the prospective films to make a sizeable profit (without the A-list stars?)
@ bro just read the comments, most of them are along the lines of, "he'll never be MY captain america!" btw, "bad writing" is just another thought-terminating cliche used by grifters to signal that this is something for their audience to dislike. a virtue signal if you will.
@@davidletarte214 Those people have the most pathetic bias against Sam as Cap and are using excuses like "he's boring" and "we know nothing about him" to cover it up.. None of them want to acknowledge that Sam is the natural successor to Steve
unless bad reviews come out i see this getting 100+ mil. the trailers have been good and it has a hulk lol. i think we will get a better read once tickets go on sale
I thought Falcon and Winter Soldier was top tier Marvel PERIOD. The action was great with awesome fight choreography and every time Sam flew it felt cinematic. It also showed the internal struggle of Sam deciding wether or not to take the shield. The writing was superb at picking up where both Sam and Bucky left off and showing the evolution of their relationship and individual characters. Very underrated!
It was a bad call to give Sam Wilson the shield. His character was boring, just a soldier who used to wear a wingpack in the army and now is the falcon. Unlike Bucky who had deep trauma, a deeper past and overall better character progression and he also had super serum formula. Sam Wilson landing in supersonic speed and not breaking his kneecaps is goofy af to me.
I thought the show was really good but the only things holding it back from being perfect were the horribly written flagsmashers (which I think in part was because of the covid rewrites that changed the villain storyline) and the random decision to make sharon a bad guy which still hasn't been followed up on for 4 years and counting. Everything else about the show was great tho
@@alexashe The Flagsmasher plot was a little weak, but it still worked for me. As for Sharon though, I'm not sure her being a villain was completely random. She was on the side of the fugitives alongside Cap, Bucky, and Sam and was on the run from the government. It would make sense if afterwards she lost everything and turned to crime.
@@ArtSawce I don't think Sam is a boring character at all! He's just a human with no special talent aside from being an advocate for mental health, especially for returning vets. He and Steve share all the same values and a lifelong mission to make the world better so it makes perfect sense for him to inherit the shield. I like Bucky as well, but his past is way too dark for him to ever truly embody what it means to be Cap.
If you want big numbers, you need team ups. The MCU is at a point where a solo film doesn’t sell or really even make sense at this point. Like Sam fighting Red Hulk? Where is Bucky? Where is Rhodey? Hell, where is the Hulk? Phase 4 and 5 not having avengers films is part of the failure.
$90M can’t be below Marvel standards when we just named a bunch of Marvel movies that opened at this same anticipated opening box office amount Lol. It’s anticipated to open around the same box office as Winter Soldier so yes it is within Marvel standards. If you want to say it’s not anticipated to open among Marvel’s highest grossing movies then yes I can accept that. I personally am not excited about the film because I also only see Steve Rogers but I’ll leave space to have an open mind and at least see it when it’s out. We shall see 🤷🏽♂️
Great show as always. Maybe the best comparison is the Captain America movies which I feel the best of these is Winter Soldier. Look at where Winter Soldier is on the list.
@@Shockkings0714 for about 30 seconds and did not have much to do with the plot except give exposition. Furthermore, that is more than likely possible, the Red Hulk is NOT possible.
The opening sounds solid, but it will truly make its money with word of mouth. General audiences are cautious on watching MCU movies that aren’t the main hard hitter. If the movie is good to great, word of mouth will carry it to be successful.
Honestly i dont think any of those are going to make over 500mil. Especially thunderbolts. Antman 3 had an opening of over 100 mil and still flopped hard. Everybody i know doesnt even know captain America 4 is coming out. Most casuals only know steve rogers not sam wilson. Anybody who watches has to already want to see a new marvel movie and these days its less and less people.
@ that’s a really good point about Antman 3. It’s going to be very interesting to see what happens. Also, if Thunderbolts and Captain America 4 both end up not being good movies, then Fantastic 4 is going to suffer big time
Ant Man 3 is a good point. But I bring the counter point of Guardians 3 That movie opened only 10 mil more than Ant Man, but because Guardians had good word of mouth from everyone it legged out to over 800 mil. And the bad word of Ant Man didn’t affect it. Ultimately it will all depend on how good the movies are individually. More so for Fantastic 4 since it’s more separate from the other two
Unfortunately this is one of those cases I believe alot of fans aren't going to be objective especially with this because many are so pressed and in their feelings about Steve Rogers not holding the mantle. They've already made up their mind so no matter how good it Capt 4 may be They're not going to budge and say it was bad or not going to watch at all
I feel his costume says it all. Like... he still has wings because we don't quite want to abandon the falcon. Just in case. Wings and a shield in an awkward looking mashup no one asked for. He reminds me of the 90s Azreal Batman - complete with machine guns.
It could pull in this amount but it will have a huge drop second week. There is no way this movie makes a profit after all the re-shoots it has had over the years.
I know it probably won't make as much money as Deadpool or Wolverine but I'm hoping it makes them more decent amount compared to the other Marvel film movies that came out that weren't that great considering that we got a cleanse palette with Deadpool and Wolverine and we can continue going on a smooth ride instead of having a disaster on our hands we need to move forward with putting good films from Marvel Studios in theaters
Numbers seem way too high. I remember the projections for Deadpool and Wolverine initially were as high as 239 million and then as it got closer to release they dropped them to like 180-200million. Also the budget for this because off all the reshoots has ballooned to like 350 million. You add maybe 100 million in Marketing, this movie will need like 900 million to break even. No way it gets close to that.
Initial tracking can always be off, too. There’s been recent flicks with decent tracking that couldn’t meet that initial number. There’s been flicks that did better due to good word of mouth. We will see.
Isn’t the budget for this movie close or over $350 million? With advertising this movie would have to make north of 800 million world wide to be profitable. Maybe it can do $90 million on its opening weekend but I’m not sure this movie does good numbers world wide.
Hopefully the movie does well, I think the biggest issue is all the shoots I’ve had to do from what we’ve heard. It’s been 3 to 4 sets of reshoots. When normally they just do one. This has inflated the budget dramatically . So even if the movie does well and is good, it might not be profitable, which is a shame
John if you’re not going to respect the stories previous writers and artists have made canon in comic book history then STOP COVERING COMIC BOOK MOVIES 🗣️🗣️🗣️
Falcon and Winter Soldier was Brave New World, it should’ve been a film overall. It fits the narrative of the title the new era everything. And Sam taking the title of cap
Its been a while since amrvel film but if buzz is negative it will struggle. If buzz is positive it could make 750-800 million range. I think 400-600 range is more realistic. If it is closer to 400, it will be failure.
As far as I know, I'm not going to the theaters to see this. I'm just going to wait and check out the full movie whenever it drops on Disney plus. There are only a few films I want to see this year and this Cap, is not one of them.
didnt even mention the budget. at $350-375 million dollars, this movie has the budget of Avengers Endgame. This movie NEEDS to make a billion minimum to be successful at the box office.
I can see this ending it's run around 300-400, possibly ant man 3 numbers. Not enough hype, the thought among moviegoers will likely be "I'll catch it on Disney +"
Which is funny because so many complain about not going with source material but Sam becomes Capt in the comics. It's like they're saying "we want source material in the story...but hey wait not this source material"
I think I’ll pass last marvel MCU movie I saw in theaters (excluding Deadpool 3) was Doctor Strange it was okay the rest of the MCU afterwards looked like Spy Kids level… even still…
Like i said falcon as cap Didn't work in the comcis so it makes sense it won't work on screen. Marvel fans have been telling marvel we don't want this movie . But they continue to not listen to the fans . So it's gonna flop unfortunately. Marvel has been out of touch with the fans base for a while and give fans what they want . And I disagree with campea i think a Bucky cap movie would be sick . Imagine bucky as cap going in black ops missions hunting down the last remnants of Hydra that was left iver from winter soilder. Bucky as cap dling black ops assassination missions as cap John wick style would be 🔥 I don't care what anyone says . Falcon as cap doesn't work . But marvel simply doesn't listen.listwn to your fans and you get success.
Gi joe.. / Gi Joe 2 or X-men 2 is the question. That's vibe i get from the trailer. The so connection that i not like moost of time mabey can work here. Total Boxoffice wil do 300-450 max. But it can be 190 million or les.
Not strong by MCU standards and yet like 60% of the MCU has opened under $100M 😂. Man that 2018 - 2019 run REALLY skewed how people think all these movies are supposed to perform.
Exactly right , they had few big opening and half of them were marketing magic. Hyping up bad movies and only 2-4 good movies had big openings n rest of them were way below biggest movie opening n still people consider otherwise. It shows how easily people can be fooled by good marketing
🎯
Exactly lol. I think people forget that this movie is more so technically a "captain america 1" that's spun off from the original trilogy instead of "captain america 4", so it's fitting that it's gonna match around the thor 1 / guardians 1 / antman 1 numbers. If they decide to give mackie an entire trilogy I'm sure the numbers will go up more for the next 2 movies
Bucky’s relationship was much better developed, but if you read between the lines at the end of Endgame, it’s pretty obvious Bucky was approached first and turned it down due to his instability. The show did a good job of showing why Sam was worthy of the mantle though, which is more important than a gradual passing.
Prove he was approached first
Prove he was approached first
@@Alex_Logan22 Bucky has too much red in his ledger. The guy who un alived Stark's parents isn't going to be Cap
@Shockkings0714
I said read between the lines lol, I didn't say it was obvious.
@@accordgolfer
Agreed, but they at least talked about what to do with the mantle since Bucky knew he wasn't seeing him again while Sam was surprised. Bucky knew Steve's plan.
Why is there so much UNNECESSARY emphasis on this “passing the mantle” to Sam Wilson?!?!?! 🧐 A whole series was dedicated towards that and explained the nuances of it! Just grab your popcorn, enjoy the full screen experience of Sam being the New Captain America, and him solving the latest global threat!!! 💪🏾👍🏾
If it gets to 95 million then it would be the 2nd biggest opening for a Captain America movie and if the reviews are good then I think the opening weekend can get to 110-120 million which would be a win.
A Hollywood Reporter article from last May confirmed that the July reshoots, which lasted only 22 days, were the only set of reshoots for the movie. So when people say it's gone through multiple reshoots that lasted months and the budget is 350 million is misinformation from an earlier article on a less reliable website.
there have been more articles since then and more reshoots: do more research and stop lying to people
@@aliceweathersby7133 Innacurate websites however. You actually could bring us your sources
I thought even John talked about how so much of this film was reshot. Cap 4 and Daredevil were deep into development when the Disney CEO switch happened and instead of releasing both those projects as they were, Feige got his control back, stopped everything, and started reshooting. I just hope those reshoots paid off and they were able to take a mid, or even bad movie, and make it great. Same goes for Daredevil.
@@mauricio6646 it’s agenda pushing. He has no sources, your average person has become the same misinformation news they hate.
@@jaylencarter4505 search Jon's vids maybe can find one that talks about the reshoots
this is relieving news to me. all i really hope for is to walk out liking this film a lot and to see it make some money. i was not asking for Endgame level results.
Me too. I just want to watch movie. If it good and entertaining as the previous Captain America movies. Then all we need, right?
My 10 most anticipated 2025 movies
10. 28 Years Later
9. Captain America: Brave New World
8. Five Nights at Freddy's 2
7. Fantastic Four
6. I Know What You Did Last Summer
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash
4. Heart Eyes
3. Jurassic World: Rebirth
2. Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning
1. Superman
I’ve been excited since I saw the first trailer. Sam’s been with us since Winter Soldier so I am completely onboard with him being given the shield and inheriting the title Captain America.
Thank You Finally someone says it!! everyone seems to be so fake saying copy and paste stuff about how it’s not steve so it’ll suck as if it does it has anything to do with the same character😂😂
@@matthewcollado6894 I honestly think a lot of people just have a personal bias against Sam having the shield
we need to stop saying "by MCU standards." whenever people say that, they're really just comparing whatever solo film is coming out to Infinity War/Endgame/No Way Home
MCU standards as in Spider-Man: Homecoming, Guardians movies, Thor Ragnarok and Doctor Strange movies, movies that are good that didn’t cross $1 mark
Cap's passing of the shield to Sam was perfect to me! If you look back starting from Winter Soldier to Endgame you can see CLEARLY that Steve was grooming Sam to take on the shield after him.
It was a bad call as Sam Wilsons character was boring, just a soldier who used to wear a wingpack in the army and now is the falcon. Unlike Bucky who had deep trauma, a deeper past and overall better character progression and he also had super serum formula. Sam wilson landing in supersonic speed and not breaking his kneecaps is goofy af to me
It's a wait-and-see for Brave New World.
As for box office numbers, I think its going to do big, few reasons why:
1) We never had marvel movie for awhile now (not counting kraven) and people want to watch the next big blockbuster by marvel prime
2) This will be a new phase for MCU with xmen and f4 characters involved after RDJ announced as Doom
3) Harrison Ford as Red Hulk (major reason)
Deadpool and wolverine was a marvel movie it just came out a couple months ago
No it won't, it will have nothing to do with X-Men either
I didn't see the ending of End Game with Old Man Steve as a passing of the shield but a conclusion of the Steve Rogers' story.
And starting Sam Wilson's Captian America story in a streaming TV series was a mistake because streaming series aren't really considered as canon or as valuable as movies. For most movie goer's, me included, Brave New World will be the introduction of Captain Sam America.
Agreed. Never should have had the streaming series. The end of End Game with Steve giving Sam the shield was a really powerful scene in my opinion. And the way Sam accepted it with his earnest "I'll do my best" was just great. I'm hoping this movie does well! (and is well made of course).
Not really. It flows fine.
Go from endgame getting the shield to Sam here now as Captain America. The show is extra filler
God do I hate mcu shows so much..... Biggest mistake they ever did... They should just focus on movies....
Comparing BNW to the top openings of the mcu is such a weird angle to take. Like what?? Most of the top mcu movies are amongst the Top 10 of all time, this is what we’re putting this movie against?? 1. This is the problem with not having a new Cap movie in 6 years post Endgame. 2, if this was Steve, the conversation would be different
If BNW comes out with the top of these projections, BNW will be the 2nd biggest Captain America movie. That’s the comparison, not the top of the mcu. That’s just unfair.
And it’s been 6 years since they gave Sam the shield, I’m tired of hearing this ‘Steve is cap’ line every time Sam is talked about.
If the movie had Steve, it'd make a billion guaranteed and you know it
If the movie had Steve, it'd make a billion guaranteed and you know it
Yeah right.. Civil War only did a Billion bc it was a mini Avengers movie. The winter soldier only made 700 million bc yes it was a good movie but that’s when the mcu started its peak.. The First Avenger only made 370M.. dont act like Steve is a big box office draw
@ 1. First Avenger was the first movie about a relatively unknown character at the time. 2. 700 is much more than this movie will make. 3. Steve is the lead of Civil War and his name is all over it.
1. First Avenger was the first movie about a relatively unknown character at the time. 2. 700 is much more than this movie will make. 3. Steve is the lead of Civil War and his name is all over it.
The only reason I want to go see this is because the red hulk
Marvel has a lot of trust to earn back from audiences. Cap 4's first weekend will be important, but I think it's 2nd weekend is what really matters. If Cap 4 is Marvel firing on all cylinders, will those good reviews and good word of mouth bring those scorned movie goers back to see an MCU film? They'd likely be going on the 2nd weekend after they've heard good things about it. If the film isn't so good and is on the level of most other post End Game MCU projects, it's going to be another huge blow to Marvel. Let's hope this film is on the level of Winter Soldier, then we'll see if people show up in weeks 2 and 3.
But its not that Sam came out from nowhere. We've know the guy since "Winter Soldier" and we got his transition to Captain America in his own series. XD
Personally, I think its gonna be a fun movie. :)
Not interested in Sam character, Im going to watch just for red hulk
@@carlosrodrigoaguirre1788 Totally agree. There's clearly a group bias against Sam as Captain America and they're using lame excuses like "he's boring and uninteresting" to cover it up. They fail to acknowledge the fact that he was the natural successor to Steve
Translation, John says he 'likes' Anthony Mackie', but he's unsure that he can carry the mantle of Captain America because all this time he was a secondary character.
Are you implying he doesn't really like him? 🤔
I'm totally watching it in the theater but even I that am an enthusiast of Marvel don't have too much hype about it. Sam Wilson on the MCU never really had that much charisma or back story to generate hype for something like this specially when without the other support cast and even Red Hulk which is probably a higher point feels so wasted to not have him actually fight or even just talk to Bruce Banner. The only thing holding this movie by a thread is the hope that the story itself is crazy good because there's barely any wonder that even a movie like Eternals had. The hope that this movie actually builds something cool in the universe including an actual hype post credit scene is higher with Feige more focused but the trust is still shaken that they'll actually deliver
I'm honestly worried about this movie. I don't care whatsoever that Sam has taken up the role of Cap--I loved Falcon and Winter Soldier and what they did with his character to make him earn the title. What I'm worried about is that it sounds like this movie is going to be at least 50% reshoots, which almost never turns out well.
The first teaser that focused on the drama piqued my interest, but then what they've shown since like those Disney+ tier lookin action scenes has made think this will be more Secret Invasion than Winter Soldier.
no way that this is opening to 85-95.
Yes, these numbers sound way to high
Bet on it
It's opening on 85-95 dollars. Not millions.
Feels like the movie has zero hype, is there anybody out there who genuinely cares about falcon or the red hulk?
I don't know that I would use the phrase genuinely care about any movie, but I'm genuinely looking forward to watching this movie.
Could just be me but I love Anthony Mackie's Falcon in the MCU and I'm excited for this film.
i think a lot of John’s viewers never seem to acknowledge that they are movie fans and think/want the general population to be as hyped for the movie as they are, and they aren’t
Opening in the middle of February doesn't help. Seeing Harrison Ford as the Red Hulk will get some eyes on it.
Uhm Black Panther would like a word
@Phizzo4real Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania also opened in February and had the franchise's highest opening weekend, which was over $100 million. However, its overall box office being a disappointment can be largely attributed to many people not liking it and poor word-of-mouth.
Also, Feb is Black History month. Disney is smarter than they look.
It started filming before 'Deadpool & Wolverine'. It has six different writers, a director that was rumored to have been removed from filming.. It had 22 days of reshoots in May of 2023, than again in June of 2023, than again in mid-2024, and then rumors ran that they are going to reshoot all the way up until release with many people backing this claim. That's four reshoots. You have to be insane to lie about this stuff.
The problem is not what the film makes on opening weekend , it's what happens at the 2nd weekend and beyond where films have fallen off a cliff week 2.
Brave New World is an Iron Maiden album name
The question should be, are audiences invested in low-tiered characters enough for the prospective films to make a sizeable profit (without the A-list stars?)
I don't think they care about new characters that's been introduced since phase 4
As long as it's good it can build through word of mouth like the mcu early on.
It all depends on reviews. If they’re middling, it will drag down the number. If good reviews, it will do ok and make its money back.
The timing of that ad drop was ridiculous
so much hate for mackie in these comments, that tells me that internet grifters are doing their jobs well
I don’t think anyone hates him. It’s just the writing.
@@yukijadenfilms3425 nah... there's definitely a group bias against that character
@ bro just read the comments, most of them are along the lines of, "he'll never be MY captain america!"
btw, "bad writing" is just another thought-terminating cliche used by grifters to signal that this is something for their audience to dislike. a virtue signal if you will.
@@davidletarte214 Those people have the most pathetic bias against Sam as Cap and are using excuses like "he's boring" and "we know nothing about him" to cover it up.. None of them want to acknowledge that Sam is the natural successor to Steve
I will be going to see it, if it's good or bad I will let you know, but let's not oee judge.
My most anticipated movie this year 💪🏿💪🏿💪🏿
No not even close thunderbolts looks way better than this
I really hope this is good 💯
unless bad reviews come out i see this getting 100+ mil. the trailers have been good and it has a hulk lol. i think we will get a better read once tickets go on sale
I thought Falcon and Winter Soldier was top tier Marvel PERIOD. The action was great with awesome fight choreography and every time Sam flew it felt cinematic. It also showed the internal struggle of Sam deciding wether or not to take the shield. The writing was superb at picking up where both Sam and Bucky left off and showing the evolution of their relationship and individual characters.
Very underrated!
It was a bad call to give Sam Wilson the shield. His character was boring, just a soldier who used to wear a wingpack in the army and now is the falcon. Unlike Bucky who had deep trauma, a deeper past and overall better character progression and he also had super serum formula. Sam Wilson landing in supersonic speed and not breaking his kneecaps is goofy af to me.
I thought the show was really good but the only things holding it back from being perfect were the horribly written flagsmashers (which I think in part was because of the covid rewrites that changed the villain storyline) and the random decision to make sharon a bad guy which still hasn't been followed up on for 4 years and counting. Everything else about the show was great tho
@@alexashe The Flagsmasher plot was a little weak, but it still worked for me.
As for Sharon though, I'm not sure her being a villain was completely random. She was on the side of the fugitives alongside Cap, Bucky, and Sam and was on the run from the government. It would make sense if afterwards she lost everything and turned to crime.
@@ArtSawce I don't think Sam is a boring character at all! He's just a human with no special talent aside from being an advocate for mental health, especially for returning vets. He and Steve share all the same values and a lifelong mission to make the world better so it makes perfect sense for him to inherit the shield. I like Bucky as well, but his past is way too dark for him to ever truly embody what it means to be Cap.
@@ArtSawce In the show we see just how much Bucky struggles to deal with his past and that he'll never truly be at peace with it.
If you want big numbers, you need team ups. The MCU is at a point where a solo film doesn’t sell or really even make sense at this point. Like Sam fighting Red Hulk? Where is Bucky? Where is Rhodey? Hell, where is the Hulk? Phase 4 and 5 not having avengers films is part of the failure.
Definitely going to see this film Thursday when it comes out cannot wait
Outside of the Avengers movies, the first Black Panther and Captain Marvel movies, and the GOTG Vol.3, a $85-90M OW is on par with most MCU films
$90M can’t be below Marvel standards when we just named a bunch of Marvel movies that opened at this same anticipated opening box office amount Lol. It’s anticipated to open around the same box office as Winter Soldier so yes it is within Marvel standards. If you want to say it’s not anticipated to open among Marvel’s highest grossing movies then yes I can accept that. I personally am not excited about the film because I also only see Steve Rogers but I’ll leave space to have an open mind and at least see it when it’s out. We shall see 🤷🏽♂️
Steve Rogers in Cap.
This would be the first captain America with the B players. 85 million would be a tremendous sucess
compare too budget and marketing they spent it might fail
It's gonna make a lot lower. $50M-$70M. The hype is not there for this movie
It’s going to make around 500m
It better have GREAT word of mouth, because if not this is going to bomb horribly.
Great show as always. Maybe the best comparison is the Captain America movies which I feel the best of these is Winter Soldier. Look at where Winter Soldier is on the list.
In honor of OSW…
“WACHHHAAA WKAAAA CHAAAA CHAAAA”
11:34 that was the premise of the Disney + show 😂😂
It cannot be like Winter Soldier and have the Red Hulk.
true
Winter Soldier had a guy with who's conscious is in a computer. What are you on about?
Winter Soldier had a guy with who's conscious is in a computer. What are you on about?
@@Shockkings0714 for about 30 seconds and did not have much to do with the plot except give exposition. Furthermore, that is more than likely possible, the Red Hulk is NOT possible.
@ Super Soldiers, flying helicarriers, and a man with flying jetpack wings also aren't possible.
The opening sounds solid, but it will truly make its money with word of mouth. General audiences are cautious on watching MCU movies that aren’t the main hard hitter.
If the movie is good to great, word of mouth will carry it to be successful.
I’m guessing it’ll total about $600-$700 million. Thunderbolts will probably make about $700-$800 million. Fantastic 4 will make more than both.
Honestly i dont think any of those are going to make over 500mil. Especially thunderbolts. Antman 3 had an opening of over 100 mil and still flopped hard. Everybody i know doesnt even know captain America 4 is coming out. Most casuals only know steve rogers not sam wilson. Anybody who watches has to already want to see a new marvel movie and these days its less and less people.
@ that’s a really good point about Antman 3. It’s going to be very interesting to see what happens. Also, if Thunderbolts and Captain America 4 both end up not being good movies, then Fantastic 4 is going to suffer big time
Ant Man 3 is a good point. But I bring the counter point of Guardians 3
That movie opened only 10 mil more than Ant Man, but because Guardians had good word of mouth from everyone it legged out to over 800 mil. And the bad word of Ant Man didn’t affect it.
Ultimately it will all depend on how good the movies are individually. More so for Fantastic 4 since it’s more separate from the other two
Superman is predicted to make 600 to 700 million dollars at the box office this Summer. We shall see.
I’m excited for it!
Feels like they’re pulling that # out of nowhere. I don’t know a single person who’s excited for this movie
I am, very exited to see where they are taking this.
I'm going opening weekend. There now you do
Well this was just them guessing since tickets had not gone on sale yet. So they actually are just pulling that # out of nowhere..
Unfortunately this is one of those cases I believe alot of fans aren't going to be objective especially with this because many are so pressed and in their feelings about Steve Rogers not holding the mantle. They've already made up their mind so no matter how good it Capt 4 may be They're not going to budge and say it was bad or not going to watch at all
Even Marvel thought it won't be good. They've rewrote and reshot tf outta this movie.
Blame KEVIN FEIGE this was his idea decision replacing popular characters
I feel his costume says it all. Like... he still has wings because we don't quite want to abandon the falcon. Just in case. Wings and a shield in an awkward looking mashup no one asked for.
He reminds me of the 90s Azreal Batman - complete with machine guns.
It’s comic accurate
You ever think that maybe his wings could now represent idk a friggen EAGLE???
Awkward looking? Mash no ask for? Lmaoo just wow. Read a comic book. Or research before you comment things. Make u look dumb and uneducated.
Thunderbolts looks infinitely better than this movie. I’m rooting for it to do well, but it’s looks meh to me. I hope it surprises me.
Considering the state of marvel lately , they should be happy with that forecast
Uhm, Deadpool and Wolverine made over a Billion dollar and Agatha Along had over 6 million views on Disney+. Things look pretty ok
@ I consider Deadpool and Wolverine are not Marvel characters, they just barely been bought out by Marvel , it’s a FOX products
@@charleyzacharia9878it was a marvel film
It could pull in this amount but it will have a huge drop second week. There is no way this movie makes a profit after all the re-shoots it has had over the years.
I know it probably won't make as much money as Deadpool or Wolverine but I'm hoping it makes them more decent amount compared to the other Marvel film movies that came out that weren't that great considering that we got a cleanse palette with Deadpool and Wolverine and we can continue going on a smooth ride instead of having a disaster on our hands we need to move forward with putting good films from Marvel Studios in theaters
Numbers seem way too high. I remember the projections for Deadpool and Wolverine initially were as high as 239 million and then as it got closer to release they dropped them to like 180-200million. Also the budget for this because off all the reshoots has ballooned to like 350 million. You add maybe 100 million in Marketing, this movie will need like 900 million to break even. No way it gets close to that.
yea this movie going be Hugh disappointment
The film is going to be a bomb because of the budget. The reshoots have gotten the budget ballooning so that this type of opening won't be enough.
Eh. I’ll pass. Going to movies are too expensive now so I’ll use my ticket money for Superman lol
Initial tracking can always be off, too. There’s been recent flicks with decent tracking that couldn’t meet that initial number. There’s been flicks that did better due to good word of mouth. We will see.
What about the budget?
Ngl John Rhodey as iron man or an iron man 4 with war machine would be pretty fire
Grounded . No wizards . Wtf ? Guess we will have to deal with a red Frankenstein and a dude with a green mishapen head.
I was thinking the same thing. "Grounded, but still got to sell some toys."
I think we need MCU 2.0(reboot)
Isn’t the budget for this movie close or over $350 million? With advertising this movie would have to make north of 800 million world wide to be profitable. Maybe it can do $90 million on its opening weekend but I’m not sure this movie does good numbers world wide.
Hopefully the movie does well, I think the biggest issue is all the shoots I’ve had to do from what we’ve heard. It’s been 3 to 4 sets of reshoots. When normally they just do one.
This has inflated the budget dramatically .
So even if the movie does well and is good, it might not be profitable, which is a shame
I’m not kidding when I say that I haven’t seen a SINGLE trailer or advertisement for this movie! When did they even start pushing marketing/promotion?
I have seen two trailers for it
John if you’re not going to respect the stories previous writers and artists have made canon in comic book history then STOP COVERING COMIC BOOK MOVIES 🗣️🗣️🗣️
We ought to think of these films as phase one, the problem is they have phase five budgets.
Falcon and Winter Soldier was Brave New World, it should’ve been a film overall.
It fits the narrative of the title the new era everything.
And Sam taking the title of cap
I don’t understand why they make it out like the projection sale is a sure win
It’s just a estimation, a guess that it will sell that well
Im in for the story towards Doomsday, hope they don’t mess this up.
Can’t wait. Will be at the fan screening and plan on seeing again for the weekend is over. Just left target for the Marvel Legends figure. 👌🏾 💪🏾
Marvel better make the public watch this. Superbowl ad
Its been a while since amrvel film but if buzz is negative it will struggle. If buzz is positive it could make 750-800 million range. I think 400-600 range is more realistic. If it is closer to 400, it will be failure.
As far as I know, I'm not going to the theaters to see this. I'm just going to wait and check out the full movie whenever it drops on Disney plus. There are only a few films I want to see this year and this Cap, is not one of them.
I’m excited for the film
didnt even mention the budget. at $350-375 million dollars, this movie has the budget of Avengers Endgame. This movie NEEDS to make a billion minimum to be successful at the box office.
Source?
No source of course
@ literally google it. It’s the first thing that popped up.
I can see this ending it's run around 300-400, possibly ant man 3 numbers.
Not enough hype, the thought among moviegoers will likely be "I'll catch it on Disney +"
No way, 100 million at BEST
But the thing is , falcon became captain America in the comics, I think there was a time Peter Parker became Ironman
General public are not comic readers who care as much
Which is funny because so many complain about not going with source material but Sam becomes Capt in the comics. It's like they're saying "we want source material in the story...but hey wait not this source material"
don't blame General they not familiar with Sam as Captain but they were definitely teasing Bucky as Cap early phases
I think this is less movies ...more interest
What this is missing is a cameo like the other movies. They needed an Iron Man, black widow, daredevil through cameo just like the other movies.
its will be cameos in this movie
You’v seen the movie?
@@tendonimogoka6443 lol.. in all Cap movies was cameos
I think I’ll pass last marvel MCU movie I saw in theaters (excluding Deadpool 3) was Doctor Strange it was okay the rest of the MCU afterwards looked like Spy Kids level… even still…
Like i said falcon as cap Didn't work in the comcis so it makes sense it won't work on screen. Marvel fans have been telling marvel we don't want this movie . But they continue to not listen to the fans . So it's gonna flop unfortunately. Marvel has been out of touch with the fans base for a while and give fans what they want . And I disagree with campea i think a Bucky cap movie would be sick . Imagine bucky as cap going in black ops missions hunting down the last remnants of Hydra that was left iver from winter soilder. Bucky as cap dling black ops assassination missions as cap John wick style would be 🔥 I don't care what anyone says . Falcon as cap doesn't work . But marvel simply doesn't listen.listwn to your fans and you get success.
agree
Sam is not cap. Bucky is not cap. Steve is cap. Weird how you're ok with Bucky being cap though...
Sam is not cap. Bucky is not cap. Steve is cap. Weird how you're ok with Bucky being cap though...
Legend Harrison I’m in
Mackie was boned the minute they announced Evans was coming back
He isn't coming back permanently, it's probably just for the next couple of avengers movies
@wlot28 doesn't matter, announcing it before Sam's movie deligitimizes him
@@wlot28same as Robert Downey Jr he returns only for few movies with Dr doom his contract is over after secret wars is finished
I think it will be over 100 million domestic over 200 million worldwide....No question marks from me....
How would they know people are gonna go see this movie?
Are you asking how box office forecasting works?
It could be that they look at pre-purchase ticket orders from previous movies to compare with Brave New world's pre-purchase ticket orders.
Ill watch it on disney + in about a month or two
@@martfp88I guess by how many people bought tickets before the movies came out.
I'll probably see it but I'm not excited for it. I'm not excited for any of the MCU stuff this year honestly.
I just wished they would at least wait until the movie comes out and gets real views before they bomb it.
Honestly, I disliked moon knight the most out the Disney plus shows. How they didn't show his black out fight scenes was corny
Haha I'm glad you still remember that. Seems like a lot of people tend to overlook that and pretend it was a good show somehow.
Had the most potential. Was the most dissapointing
Big opening of last year not of the year did you do this video last year
Not sure how much it will gross.
Also not sure about the director, and the political or social angles the film will propably take
Gi joe.. / Gi Joe 2 or X-men 2 is the question. That's vibe i get from the trailer. The so connection that i not like moost of time mabey can work here. Total Boxoffice wil do 300-450 max. But it can be 190 million or les.
@John Campea....NWO 4 life 😂
he was the third man
Doesn't this need like 1 billion to break even?
No....
@tomgu2285 what's the budget after 26 reshoots?