Is 2024 The Worst Year to Buy a House?
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- Опубліковано 20 січ 2024
- In January 2023 everyone was talking about the property market crashing, but it’s January 2024 and nothing’s happened…or has it?
In this video, we’re going to look at why a crash was forecast for 2023, the signs that it might now have started… and how you can use this to your advantage.
So let’s have a look at what happened in 2023, why the crash may have already started and how this could potentially be great news for investors…
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We’d love to hear what you think in the comments below. You might even have a topic you’d like us to cover in the future - if so, comment it below.
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If you are buying a house for a home then there is never a bad time to buy. If you are buying as an investment then you are part of the problem.
No. It’s like trying to time the stock market. Buying at any time is fine, as long as you plan on keeping long term.
Yep - and like the stock market, most people only want to buy when buying is getting more expensive
Yes but having negative equity means that getting any further credit is more difficult.
They will always get you, no
Matter what!!
Everyone seems to assume rates will come down from here. If they don't it feels like a lot of people's plans will go out the window. There's certainly a macro case to make that rates could have a lot higher to go.
You need to distinguish between average house price and average transaction value.
Fewer properties have been selling at the lower end of the market so the data is skewed.
Supposedly that's corrected for I believe, but I don't know how well. And fewer transactions compared to other years will make it less reliable too
In the US and Canada there are indexes which track repeat sales to provide more accurate indexes of property values, and also correct for increased sizes of properties (i.e. correct to get per square foot) etc. Also, using median prices instead of averages reduces the skew from higher priced sales and sales mix changes. Doesn't look like that kind of index exists in the UK.
UK average house price in Aug 2021 was £260,575. in Jun 2022 it was £286,436 and in Jul 2022 they were £292,118. The ONS in the July 2022 Bulletin reported a yearly house price rise of 15.5% and a monthly rise of 7.4%. Do the maths and the real rise was 11.4% for the year and 1.9% for the month. That is a 400 billion mis-reporting in 1 month when things were good. The ONS now say due to a 22% reduction in house sales they are only able to process 50% of usual volumes. If the ONS was a large company they would be charged with fraud. This is a Ponzi con and it must be outed. Look at any postcode by going to Land registry sold house prices and you will see any smart person is getting a 30% reduction and the rest are being fooled by estate agents. Get 30% off (the real low estimate and not the asking price) or walk away.
In Nov 2023 it was £284,950 according to the Land Registry. That's an inflation adjusted drop of 8.5% in one year by official metrics, and the truth is likely much worse.
What a load of rubbish. You think a person would sell at a 30% loss? Then they have to buy? What are you smoking?
You talk rubbish. Look at your post code or any in the UK and it is a fact many sales are for 30 or even 40% less. Fact band not snake oil salesman and government lies. It is the biggest Ponzi fraud in history. These conmen making muggles pay more than they should. Everyone in the UK knows I am right and you are wrong. Rich people do not over pay. If they did they would be poor or swindled. @@countersmart
Ì do know a few examples of 30% discounted offers accepted ( Hull and North Wales) , but in general the overall is only down 10 to 15% (Northampton). Volumes are so low that if you need to buy there is not much choice so if you don't buy, someone else will.
Bull poop. The daily Mail did an article about a village in Henley-on Thames and I did a Land Registry price paid data search and found -7.9%, -17% and -105%. That is correct one house was sold for under half it was valued at. I have done for where i live and it averages at 14.5% and that is the first 5% of houses sold in the data base. The ONS only do 16%. This is biggest con in history and no-one is doing anything about it. How the ONS can get away with it is bewildering. @@neildee9834
Everyone is talking about
UK AVERAGE house price not falling much, but this is only because of common downsizing now, pushing up average price. Does UK get UK house prices by sector, 1 br, 2br...flat and 1,2 ...5 br house?
More selling pressure in 2024 than 2023 due to refinancing demands. We had a big downturn in consumer spending too on the recent consumer print.. this is a sign that all isn't right in the economy and then a new variable might kick off which is rising unemployment.
The soft landing not being so soft after all is the major risk to the downside for sure
The economy is in recession after months of flatlining, how much of an indicator on the economy is that?
No, the recent price dip mean its a good time to buy if you're willing to invest long term. Even if the incoming government inceat heavily in building social housing, it will take a while before it has a significant impact on the rental market.
Indeed!
In the past an average annual income will be substantially able to cover the costs of living expenses for a family provided by a single earner. However recently it takes both couples to make ends meet by increasingly working multiple jobs to support their families
Я гадаю, що падіння або ріст ціни правельно рахувати до національної валюти, а якщо заробітна плата не росте а все подорожчало, то у людей лишається менше вільних грошей, і вони будуть купувати і орендувати дешевші варіанти - а це спричинить зниження ціни або просто зупинить ріст цін.
In Oz inflation is supposed to be over, thanks to the interest rate hikes.
As a country we need to stop encouraging buy to let, that combined with selling off the housing stock has broken the housing market. Sure I've profited personally but that doesn't mean the system is right.
Sounds a bit hypocritical
@@Iamwhatyousayiam it means recognising the problem. Change the broken system.
Less buy to lets, less properties to rent = renting crisis
@@chrisjordan7739 can certainly have the same number of properties without the greed that the private sector brings. Was perfectly fine before then Thatcher screwed the country for a one time sell off.
"In the Country of the Blind, the One-Eyed Man is King" - Erasmus
Respectfully, it is irresponsible to suggest interest rates are unlikely to increase. A study of economics, associated policy, and history dispels such hypothesis. Viewers should be wary of recency bias and make a careful study the period predating the 1990's along with the medium average interest rate since the BOE's inception in 1694. This is reality - not speculation.
Never a good time to get into the housing market, just get on when you can afford it and ideally buy as big as you can go - if you get through the next 10yrs you'll think to yourself that you wouldn't be able to afford it now (heard that from home owners when I first bought and now I think that myself).
It's not that I think houses are worth their prices but guaranteed over time money gets devalued & thus inflate assets, sadly it doesn't pay to be too prudent, it pays to take on debt (assuming you can get a decent rate) and have inflation (in relative terms) shrink it away over the years.
I agree that some regions are still OK to invest in. However, that's getting very limited. I'm here in the South East, and I think it's a lunacy to bury your money in any property. The ceiling of additional equity growth has been reached. This was enormously accelerated by the +25% increase that happened in just 2 years during Covid. That should have been spread over a number of years, but here we're...Regarding potential "hotspots" in the North, that's probably OK for the rental yield. But not sure about capital growth...That would imply they'll reach the levels that we currently have in the South East? Will salaries in the North match the salaries in London? Hmmm....
Inflation has already wiped off the rise in prices that happened during Covid.
Adjusting for inflation average house prices haven't yet beat the 2007 record which would be 330k in todays money vs 290k reported by ONS in July.
And by the way in 2007 when prices hit their max in July 2007 the bank of England Base rate was 5.75%. Higher than today.
This video goes into the ratio of London (and by extension South East) prices vs the North: ua-cam.com/video/UiEigawVUbE/v-deo.html
The difference between assets and currency. One increases over time and the other decreases, that's why they invented currency. A big con to keep people on the financial treadmill and creating more billionaires, landlords and rentiers that paper over the cracks for those at the 'lower end' getting squeezed out of the running all together. Even trainee UK doctors are feeling the pinch.
Biggest thing you forgot for 2024.... election and the incoming Labour government will surely rock the market for investors who will more than likely sit tight for a short period to see what happens
If true, that should make it a good time to buy
Possible rent controls similar to Scotland, more taxation and rules...What not to like under Labour...
should I buy now then as an investor or wait?
buy now, pay later, try to get the security of todays availability while having the safety net of tomorrows prices (assuming we are in for a crash)
Could you please elaborate on how it is the best time to buy when mortgage monthly payment (@4.9%) it is higher then monthly rent ?
Mortage monthly payment should be 80-85% of your monthly rental payment so you can cover fees and left with a 5% profit
5% profit, why are you even investing!! Couldn't even be bothered for that ridiculous return your in wrong game
Unless you've got an interest-only mortgage, then tenant is almost buying the property for you.
If the numbers don’t add up at current rates, that particular investment clearly doesn’t make sense
@@stevenhodgson834 you will have an interest only mortgage.
@@Andy5c for capital gain. it's the only kicker in the shit sandwich of BTL
House price crash will come however this is never immediate - if you look at Ireland after the 2008/9 downturn, the real slump in house prices came 3 to 4 years down the line, long after the banks, developers and estate agency firms had run aground - reason being is that it takes a lot of time for people to eventually run aground and really need to sell.
The longer interest rates remain high, the more likely a house price crash is, this is simple economics - house prices remain well out of reach of ordinary people while thus only the select few can buy - this comes to an end when borrowing costs rise by 50% and mortgage availability runs dry.
I have never lost a penny on the 3 houses I’ve bought and sold since I bought my first in 2007. There’s never a wrong time to buy.
There are better and worse, but not wrong - IF you’re prepared for a long-term hold
Well, maybe you can’t remember the late 80s early 90s when there was definitely a wrong time to buy and loads got repossessed and negative equity was a thing right up into the late 1990s with houses worth less than the mortgage, but as a general rule it’s ok especially if you budget and save for a rainy day.
that's a terribly vague statement. Did you use a mortgage ? Did you sell them just last year at the peak ? If you bought and had to wait 15 years to get rid of negative equity I'd say that wasn't a great deal. Still, better than renting
@@silviuchitic162 Hi used a mortgage. Equity was built up with value increase and doing some work on houses and selling for more than I paid . The latest house I sold for a 150percent more than in purchases it for 8 years ago. Even with interest taken into account on mortgage payments I’m a million miles better off then renting. A 2 bed terrace locally in 2014 was renting for circa 500 pounds a month. Same houses are now 900 a month. If I rented I’d literally have nothing to show for it other than a massive dent in my future. As it stands I have an 8 year mortgage on a property that’s worth a lot of money. Buy , don’t rent! Best advice ever.
Only 30% of UK homes are mortgaged. And only a fraction of those are people who want to move. So there is no drastic event causing a crisis in thr housing market.
Always buy when you can.
You either pay back the bank... or you pay a landlord who owes a bank.
It's that simple.
Unless we get net migration or a surge in unemployment it’s hard for houses to fall while we aren’t building sufficient. Developers are jittery and neither side of the govt want to build in their backyards or their electorate’s backyard. That’s about as popular as IHT. So it won’t be a crash. In the supposedly overpriced south east I just sold in north Surrey in one week for the asking price. 24 mins from Waterloo, detached house, conservation area. You need to unpack the word ‘growth’. There are very few places we can grow stock politically. Perfect storm of exogenous economic shocks, then maybe.
The government pumped £450 billion in quantitative easing. Until this money is taken from the market and sunk into something else, like government investments in social housing, renewable projects, or even HS2, etc. this money will keep propping up inflation for the foreseeable future.
Its time for wealth redistribution. Tax the rich to save them from themselves.
Jagx stock
We still have a housing crisis or more accurately a LAND crisis unfortunately. Without land you cant build more houses and unfortunately land is very tightly held in the hands of the few. What is more we have a structural problem on land. For example, once developers and very wealthy land investors own land in the UK there is no taxes due or a council tax band for this type of property ownership. Yet in most developed countries around the world there is a tax levied on this type unused land bracket. Sadly, as long as Tories hold the reins there wont even be a discussion
2022 was 2006,2023 was 2007 a year of optimism
2024 is 2008 agreed
and denial
@@silviuchitic162 yes amen
Population growth is insane though
Canada is running a few months ahead of the UK. We're in a technical recession, inflation has peaked and we expect interest rates to drop in the summer. Experts said our over-inflated housing market would crash, it didn't, it crept up. House prices dropped in real terms, as they grew less than inflation, but rental prices shot up and are only now coming back down. The impact from the re-financing of low-rate mortgages didn't hit, people just found the extra money or went off the high street. We all know the rates are temporary so people are just hanging in. Nobody is expecting a rapid return to the very low rates of 2021, but everybody is waiting. It's like a game of musical chairs, the music is playing but few people are moving around. Give us an interest rate drop or two, or even shave 1% off the top and we'll probably re-ignite the market and house prices will start rising again in real terms.
💛💙
Housing market is gonna crash cash buyers let's go
3 PROPERTIES - rinse 🚿 the equity and invest else, yields ain’t that much better elsewhere
Hello, did anyone notice, the presenter or anchor of this video is not a real person but it appear to be a computer generated animated character, developed by the Artificial Intelligence! Well, if you observe the figure closely it would be evident, if I understand correctly! If you have already noticed it, well and good. But if not, please watch it and do describe your comment on what your reaction is. Thank you!!
AI can’t do hands that well lol😂
Decades of data*
What the hell is Garcia on about. I lost all my £7500 deposit plus another £2500. That was a £10,000 cash loss and that was 25%. Do you work for the ONS or Halifax. They would love to employ you if you do not!!!
Thay have fallen a lot in real terms
Should have been patient as he gets there lol
Covered in full here: The silent property crash of 2023
ua-cam.com/video/qfzu204Csug/v-deo.html
The idea lots of people need to sell is rubbish. Most will change their spending habits to maintain payments on mortgage. Only people who have borrowed beyond their means with huge mortgages will have to sell. Stop the fear mongering!
Nope. Not if you buy a home and not an "investment" and F you if you're buying houses as "investments".
Are you a property expert or just someone reading the newspapers and commenting? If you are an expert how dare you come up with such garbage, Are you deliberately trying to make people overpay. 30% off the real price and not asking price is correct for today if you do your own due diligence. Why are you doing this? It can not be because you believe it to be true!
There is no such thing as a ‘real price’. Houses aren’t USD denominated commodities. If you had to sell for 30% less you’ve just overpriced your property by 30%. People are not rational when it comes to their houses.
What are you on about I bought for 37500 and sold for 27500 i lost all my 7500 deposit and another 2500. I lost 25% or 10,000 cash. what the hell are you on about?@@Garcia061
UK average house price in Aug 2021 was £260,575. in Jun 2022 it was £286,436 and in Jul 2022 they were £292,118. The ONS in the July 2022 Bulletin reported a yearly house price rise of 15.5% and a monthly rise of 7.4%. Do the maths and the real rise was 11.4% for the year and 1.9% for the month. That is a 400 billion mis-reporting in 1 month when things were good. The ONS now say due to a 22% reduction in house sales they are only able to process 50% of usual volumes. If the ONS was a large company they would be charged with fraud. This is a Ponzi con and it must be outed. Look at any postcode by going to Land registry sold house prices and you will see any smart person is getting a 30% reduction and the rest are being fooled by estate agents. Get 30% off (the real low estimate and not the asking price) or walk away.