Logan Mohtashami: Will the Fed lower rates this week?

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  • Опубліковано 1 лис 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 31

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    @mfmcintyre 3 місяці тому +19

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  • @peterbedford2610
    @peterbedford2610 3 місяці тому +2

    The real estate industry has been pretty beaten down and now new construction has been slowing down....

    • @LoganMohtashami
      @LoganMohtashami 3 місяці тому +1

      The existing home sales market has been in a recession since June 5th, 2022, and now the construction new home sales market is next at risk. The 5-unit permit data has put the housing sector in a recession since September 2023.

  • @justsomeguy2943
    @justsomeguy2943 3 місяці тому +1

    Logan:
    I would like to learn about the "levers" the Fed has.

    • @LoganMohtashami
      @LoganMohtashami 3 місяці тому +1

      Remember what the Fed did with Silicon Valley Bank over the weekend.
      They can merge banks quickly to create less credit stress in the economy. I believe they will do that with the commercial banking debt due over the next few years.
      They can open credit markets more constructively and buy distressed debt if needed.
      They went all in during COVID-19, so they feel they can pull some levers if worse comes worse.
      This is also one reason they kept hiking rates after the banking crisis in 2023
      I don't believe they will do this, but one sentence about buying mortgage back securities or stopping the QT can also move markets.
      They have levers to pull.

    • @justsomeguy2943
      @justsomeguy2943 3 місяці тому +1

      @@LoganMohtashami Thank you!

  • @ronno1202
    @ronno1202 3 місяці тому

    mortgage rates are already down 120 bp from peak. 2024-2025 cuts to the FFR are already priced in.

    • @LoganMohtashami
      @LoganMohtashami 3 місяці тому

      Policy and the 10-year yield still is in expansion levels not yet pricing labor market breaking, like it was trying late 2022/ early 2023

    • @ronno1202
      @ronno1202 3 місяці тому

      ​@@LoganMohtashami true, when a recession becomes "official" as the unemployment rate hits 5 next summer, there will certainly be some rate cuts and demand for bonds!

  • @PRGTX
    @PRGTX 3 місяці тому +1

    I am building a rental home now and overheard the construction guys talking Friday that they don't have much in the pipeline and are looking for work. So it sounds like it is coming quickly or beginning to happen now.

    • @LoganMohtashami
      @LoganMohtashami 3 місяці тому

      We still have a backlog of orders nationally to work off of in specific markets.
      However, with that said, 5 unit permits are already at recession lows and single family permits have fallen for four months in a row, it's the first time in the cycle that has happened together. So, if you're not working on a backlog project in a non-pipeline part of the U.S., that can be an issue for construction labor going out

    • @House_hacker_619
      @House_hacker_619 3 місяці тому

      @@LoganMohtashamiwith increasing inventory. Do you have a 📈 how many are need vs want to sell?

    • @LoganMohtashami
      @LoganMohtashami 3 місяці тому

      @@House_hacker_619 The weekly tracker article shows the latest data nationally, line by line, with the context of the previous years; that report comes out every Saturday. That is fresh weekly data, months ahead of the NAR data

    • @DavidECollinsGolf
      @DavidECollinsGolf 3 місяці тому

      Logan. Have you heard any of Melanie Wrights predictions

    • @LoganMohtashami
      @LoganMohtashami 3 місяці тому

      With housing, I have a rule of thumb.
      I never listen to anyone unless they have
      2024 forecast written in 2023 or the 1st month of 2024
      5 years of housing economic forecasting and modeling
      A live housing economic model
      I only read people's work if I see someone with this. I have done this for 14 years, so real-time housing modeling is essential to track economic cycles and housing.
      Her and I had a discussion on Twitter 18 months ago