Optimal Exploitative Bet Sizing at the Micro Stakes
Вставка
- Опубліковано 8 вер 2024
- Bet sizing is extremely important at the micros. You want to be using exploitative bet sizing instead of GTO in most situations.
This is a perfect example of a hand where incorrect bet sizing ended up costing us big time.
It is really important to make sure your bet sizing is bang on at the micros if you want to win big.
Watch this video to find out how to do it.
My free poker cheat sheet:
bit.ly/3i49sSv
BlackRain79 Elite Poker University:
Learn EXACTLY how to start crushing small and mid stakes poker games, play semi-pro or even full time pro. Use my proven elite poker strategies to start winning fast.
bit.ly/3xmQsX7 - $100 OFF WITH CODE 100OFF
My Best Selling Poker Strategy Books:
Learn my PROVEN poker strategies to crush all your opponents in small stakes poker games.
bit.ly/3vWrSJm - 20% OFF WITH CODE 20OFF
The PokerTracker HUD I use:
bit.ly/2AKdMQs
My Socials:
Instagram: / officialblackrain79
Twitter: / blackrainpoker
My private Facebook poker group:
/ blackrain79pokertalk
Thank you for watching. New poker videos every week.
Make sure you are subscribed for more. All the best at the poker tables :)
DISCLOSURE: Some of the links above are affiliate links, which means, at no additional cost to you, I may earn a commission if you decide to make a purchase and/or subscribe. Affiliate commissions help fund videos like this one.
The poker strategy advice in this video is for educational purposes only. If you choose to play poker for real money, please always play responsibly and within your limits.
What bet sizing do you use at the micros? Also, learn the simple poker strategy that has been SKYROCKETING my results lately ua-cam.com/video/OJyHQLMxASY/v-deo.html
not naming names (DOUG!!) lol you're very right tho, as long as you adapt when moving up stakes, just ABC works wonders
Micros is the whole new world of poker with its own rules. I agree with BlackRain, fold when passive players charge at you unless you’ve got the nuts. It’s important to be flexible in your decisions based on the types of the opponents you play.
I'm glad that I came across this video. I normally would have used the same sizing as hero based on what I read in Janda's book but I'm starting to agree with you that we must size up in lower stake games.
Ya, I think a lot of people who play low stakes are reading a book like that and learning bet sizing that is better suited for mid and high stakes games.
Great commentary as usual! I could not have gotten away from this, but with bigger bet sizing maybe he could have folded to us on the flop. Tight passive is folding 3's when they miss their set.
Exactly
Thanks IQ, glad this video helped you!
Hi.I read your first book.Excellent book.Thank you.Sorry, I write and speak English badly
I am glad my book helped you! :)
@@BlackRain79Poker I began to understand the game better
Expanding on the small size, I agree: You need to bet big, even on dry boards to get as much money in as possible: but against a small stack, I use the small flop CBet a lot. One thing to always think about before using it is whether all the money can get in by the river. I will never bet this small with a value hand if I napkin math in my head, and I can't get the money in by the river.
after u pay them enough times u eventually stard to fold against the nits i even mark them as i mark the fish just for that
reason is exacly as u say if imnot tilt at all i fold the tern if not in the river for sure and u know why i will get super tilt if i call the river and loose
My take on this hand:
Hand: Kh7d from BB
Action: 3 Limpers
Stacks: ~150BB
Equity: 27% (So technically we’re slightly ahead of the limper ranges but not to the point where can value bet unless they would continue with their entire range!)
My take: I’m considering raising light with this hand with the K blocker, so there’s a good chance everyone will just fold here, as they probably didn’t limp with KK, KA, KQ, KJ, KT, Kxs, etc. I have stolen so many blinds by bluffing with unplayable hands in limped pots. We have 26.6% equity to win 3:1 odds so technically this is a value bet (albeit thin value) if nobody ever folds, specifically 6% value, or 1% value with rake into account
.
Flop: 7c7s2c
Villan 4: Check
Equity: 85%
My take: Obviously we’re clearly statistically winning now, so we definitely want money in the pot! But it looks like everyone else is probably going to fold here. Problem is that it’s hard to but them on a range because they’re so passive! One thing I’ve tried to do is to bet a third of their stack size every street! (Like $2.47, $2.47, Shove all-in because players here don’t care much about the size of the pot) or even just SHOVE ALL-IN and pray for a crying call! I have done that before and doubled, tripled, or even quadrupled my stack! That’s how I can win 554.3bb (That’s over 5 ½ full stacks!)/100 hands at the play money micro stakes with no rake! I’m pretty sure the real money games will be much tougher based on rake and less recreation!
Villain 2 Call
Villan 3 Call (VPIP 20, PFR 12)
Villain 3 Preflop: Range: TT-, JTs-54s, J9s-53s
Villan 3 Postflop Range: TT-22, 97s, 87s, 76s, 75s, JcTc-5c4c, Jc9c-5c3c
Turn: 3h
Equity: 81%
My take: Again, we clearly need to bet BIG for value!
Villan 2 Calls
Villan 3 Raises!
Range: 33, 22, 97s, 87s, 76s, 75s
New Equity: 43%
My take: UH-OH! That’s not good! Unless we can get Villain 2 all-in here it’s just a call with pot odds in mind.
Raise, Re-raise:
New equity: 44%
This is why we shouldn’t have raised! This is a spot where we need to exercise pot control because the odds are not in our favor that his monster is worse than ours in this cooler.
River: Jc
New equity: 40%
Nit ship:
New range: 33, 22
New equity: 0%
MY take: The few hands we were beating here that kept us in the hand would’ve checked in fear of the flush here, so he would only bet with a hand that can beat a flush, which is only full houses with pocket threes or pocket deuces. Time to fold.
This river is a fold with anything less than a full house.
This river is a raise all-in with quads, as well as any full house, except pocket deuces, which is a fold to a higher full house.
The NIT only has 22, 33, and 77 (except for our blocker) so the math is relatively simple for the range of hands that should give action here. But nobody will fold a full house so we don’t need to consider the fold button for the nit, so we also don’t need to consider any raise size other than jamming all-in!
Raise: 77 (100%), 73 (100%), 72 (100%), J7 (86%), 33 (75%)
Call: There is no hand where a call is in order as no hand has an equity between 28 and 50% against the range assigned, which is the range of equity for calling here.
Fold. Anything below a full house, as well as bottom boat with pocket deuces since he still can’t have a worse hand, has literally 0% equity against a full house or better, so calling here is basically the poker version of suicide. This hand really is that black and white, or binary.
In conclusion, Hero made a 44bb*12% disadvantage = 5.28bb mistake in EV by raising on the turn, putting more money into the pot AND allowing an extra nit raise without hero having the best hand, as well as a massive 87bb blunder by calling on the river with clearly the second best hand, for a total of 93.28bb loss EV.
09:30 You are right the NIT doesnt have the flush there. However, if they just had trips they would probably not ship the river when the flush gets there, even though how hero has played the hand does not indicate they had the flush draw. Given that they have shipped the river just screams full house and allows hero to fold. A non club river might mean hero has to sigh call as they have committed by not folding the turn.
The trick I like to use for hands like this is that any tight player at the micros doesn't really know how to bluff. They literally only bluff on one street per hand if they're going to bluff so if they make some big bet 2 streets in a row then they necessarily have a big hand. So yes, you should fold here.
A7 would be sufficient, but 33 even better... Cheap showdown with trips could be an option, but I've learned one thing, when they ship, you should be happy in one case only, when YOU have the nuts.
Love your content dude, going to buy CTM, thanks and much love
Thanks Michal! Glad my poker videos are helping you.
@@PersonalStash420 CTM = Crushing The Microstakes. There is no dought, that Doug Polk would beat Nathan in a heads up match, if they played long enough. But its missing the point, which is, that an exploitable play style has a much higher winrate ceiling against bad players, which of course you find a lot of in the micros.
Poker is very different from sports like for instance tennis, where at least for some the goal is to be the best player in the world, and the best players become rich from playing against each other to entertain spectators. In poker the money come not from spectators or sponsors but from playing against worse players.
Berry Greenstein said it once and admitted, that it is kind of predatory. Nathan has the same line of thinking and has never claimed, that he is or is trying to become the best player in the world.
@@fundiver198 the object of poker is to play with people who are worse than you, to make profit
It's a fantastic book. Really sumarises all his information into chapters. Highly reccomend
Hahaha heads up versus Doug Polk, ya I would probably lose. He is a HU specialist and a reigning high stakes end boss. I am just a low stakes 6max/full ring player/writer.
A shove in the micros is always the nuts. I have that written in sharpee on my laptop. I’ve made world class soul reader folds since writing that. They will usually show because they are proud of their hand. I am right nearly every time. Players in the micros have no problem turning their hands face up with their bet sizing. Funny thing is your bet sizing turns your hand face up and they still call.
Also lol @ the GTO bet sizing in the micros.
I think, its player and situation dependent. Nathan has also reviewed two hands, where a recreational player went all in on the flop, and they did not exactly have the nuts.
fundiver198 you’re right. If it’s an unknown it’s not as easy as I made it sound. For the most part after an hour or so in to a session you can figure out who jams for value and who likes to gamble every time they get a draw or hit their A with an off suit 6 kicker. It’s never a balance strategy.
Also every now and then you run in to a table with several solid players. As a rule of thumb though I give very little credit until I have reason to think otherwise.
@@lozgod In this particular hand I will say, that the turn raise into two players already look really strong in itself. So I am not feeling great about this, way before it gets to the point, that he shove the river. I think, if he had a draw, or even trips with a mediocre kicker like 97s or 87s, he would just call again on the turn. So realistically I think, he has A7, 33 or 22 a lot of the time, when he take this line.
fundiver198 I said shove specifically because that’s what I have written on my laptop but yes I agree 100% with you. The 7s out there and him coming over top shows he is good there. If he was worried about his kicker he would call down as you said.
It’s hard to fold hands that strong but the reraise turns his hand face up. I’ve hero called too many times to not know.
@@lozgod I think, when he first raise the turn, there is still some room for him to occationally be bluffing or having a 7 with a worse kicker. And trips have 10 outs to boat up on the river. So I dont like to fold straight away, but 3-betting him is wildly optimistic, and when he 4-bet then I think, he pretty much always have us beat. So as played I would fold to the 4-bet on the turn.
But I would just have called his raise, and when he fired again on the river, I would have let it go. Now there is no more chance to improve, and the flush got there as well, which make it very unlikely, he is betting a worse hand for value, and his most likely bluff got there. On a blank river my decision depend on, how much he bet, and my general read on him.
Too many people think trips is the same value as a set and play accordingly. It isn't even close!
Agreed.
@6:22 some tight passives will do this with 2 pair, but I can’t see them limping with anything that makes 2 pair on this board. They can’t have 2 3, or even 7 2/3. Must hav3 trip 3s or a 7 and we gotta hope not A7
Edit: see I completely missed that the pair of 7s made a boat with picket 3s. I had him on pocket 3s but I thought out set of 7 beats his set of 3s.
When the board is paired with the top card, two pair is always counterfeited, since there is no such thing in NLH as three pair. On this board 32 had 77223 on the flop, and on the turn it improved to 77332. But that is still only a very mediocre hand, since any 3X has 7733X for a better kicker, and 44+ has 7744+3 for a better two pair. And of course any 7X has 777X3, which beat two pair.
Nice video. It’s one of those that’s very difficult to lay down. I agree with Nathan, the way this played out with villains stats… we likely don’t have him beat.
Is Q7, J7, T7, 97, 87, 76 in his limp range when he only VPIP’s 20%? Maybe suited since he’s on the button. With PFR of 12 he’s probably raising on button with overpairs, so we can remove those from his range.
That leaves A7, 33, 22 to go along with his suited 7s that we have beat. But as Nathan noted, is he making these post flop raises with A7, Q7-87? Even if he is he’s got 73% equity on us. But he’s probably not so it’s likely much worse than that.
this video changed my career from a micro stake player to - mid stake player
Haha glad I could help Ahmed!
When he bet on the 3 of hearts I said he had pocket 3s. So I nailed his hand, but I screwed up thinking 777 beat 333, missing that he actually had a full house.
I think it's 50/50 on the nit checking back with A7. A worse run out, (even one that's unlikely to hit hero's range) like 798, and etc. he definitely would.
Your comentary is awesome, thank you for this joyfull video
Thanks glad you enjoyed!
With bigger bet sizing turn would've been easier for hero to play. Turn Cbet would've been around $ 0.50 and villain would've repoped to near $ 1.5. This for me would've been much more clearer fold and I'd never even start think any min reraise tricks against tight and passive here. Now, because of bet sizing, turn is hard for you, not for your opponent.
Always fastplay your sets on the flop versus tight players at microstakes, if you don't want to get in spots like this and lose your money. I've seen this many times, decision making afterwards is mostly based on tilt, big hands are often overrated. A set is good but not great versus this type of player on the turn/river, you need a certain amount of fold equity in an early stage of the hand.
I agree, fastplay is the new slowplay at the micro stakes :)
Hey, Nathan! Great video as usual. Totally on board with the logic of your decisions. I recently moved from Full-Ring tables (NL5 - 10) to 6-max and discovered to my dissapointment that these games are far different from FR especially in 3betting and counter-3betting strategies and postflop betting patterns. They are just destroying me with regular 3bets and even 4bets whenever i have something like JJ or QQ and i don't know what to do (i.e. to shove, fold or call). Also i found there are much more flop-turn raises used in 6 max on NL5 especially by regulars, many of which are bluffs or semi-bluffs, i am also not sure how to react to them! I understand these are general questions so it's hard to answer precisely but I am a fan of your books and purchased both "Crushing the micros" and "Modern small stakes" (which i just started reading, the first book i know very well). Could you advise me where to find books\materials to read about 6-max playing strategies specifically. Cause in your first book you made empasis on Full Ring solid strategy, but maybe you have books on 6max as well?
Thanks Alexander I am glad this video helped!
It might be a good idea to move down a limit when transferring from full ring to 6-max or vise versa to make it a bit easier adjusting to the different player pool tendencies. Also if the full ring format suit you better, why change to 6-max? At PokerStars there is still full ring action until 200 NL, so if you are currently at 5 NL and 10 NL, there is still plenty of upward mobility.
@@fundiver198, thanks but a bit too late i guess i have already adjusted after watching few NL5-NL10 coaching videos on youtube and reading Blackrain's article i won back what i've lost initially during first badly loosing sessions. So i humbly hope not to have to ever move down to NL2 again :) As regards FullRing unfortunately on PokerStars at least it looks like it's a dying game format. There's so much less FR tables at every higher limit than for NL6 and so is the waiting AND SO IS THE AMOUNT OF FISH. Aslo NL6 is much more dynamic and much less ABC-style when it comes to play. So it's by far more interesting to me... well at least until i'm winning :)
Nathan, sure he's passive pre, but he has an AF of 3. I think with an AF that high he could be bluffing a lot. Of course maybe he folds everything but the nuts...
Hey Eric, from my experience the gap between VPIP and PFR is a more important indicator here. This is definitely a passive player.
Ur every advice is 100% great for micro
Thanks Sunny glad my poker videos help you!
Hilarious and insightful. Thanks.
2:01 A bet size works great in the mid and high stakes, but it doesn't work in the micros?
Either you worded that very poorly or this is the same argument as the old "I need to move up in stakes to where they respect my bets"
what would be the numbers of a good lag or good tag, please. your ideal. love your channel follow others for higher stakes but since follow you got better at micros. thanks.
Thanks Gustavo!
What about overbetting from the flop when you hit trips like that in a limped pot... isn't overbetting a good ideea in this type of situation ? And if so... how much ? 200bb ? More ?
I think over-betting only works if you are playing against known recs.
I had a feeling he had 22 or 33
Like the video, love your content, but! I don't think sizing up here would necessarily have got the villain off this pot. You say yourself, 'they love to call' On a flop where I have trips, the board is paired up and set for a front door flush, I've lost so many pots by betting big here I know to bet cautiously. I would just bet third pot on the flop, if it gets called check/call any small bet on the turn, check-call any small bet on the river. When the frnt door flush comes in you are no more than 50/50 at best, so losing the whole stack is gonna happen all day playing this way, against these guys who know their own game, looking like a tight passive fish all day is what they love doing.
What stats does a crusher play at these stakes?
My VPIP is usually low 30s because I play a lot of multi way pots in late position with suited connectors and suited A’s as well as a lot of BB defense vs small raises. Every seems to try to steal from the button and it’s calling a raise then being aggressive post flop prints money a lot of times vs certain opponents. It’s not a default vs every player but the site I play on most microstakes players attempt to steal a lot until they are shut down.
My pre flop raise is usually in the 20s. Can be low end or high end of 20s depending on the table. I never limp in as the opener and always iso with stronger hands to avoid playing 4 ways to the flop. If I’m on a suited A or suited connectors or weaker broadways Ill avoid chasing players out to avoid over investing on spec hands plus when they hit they are usually the nuts so the more stacks in the better.
The one stat I always seem low in is aggression factor. Im usually 1.5-2. Most of that comes from preflop play. A lot of times in late position I’ll have players betting in to me with hands I plan on going to the river with so I’ll wait on aggression for later streets. I find by doing that a lot of players will feel committed and my hand is underrepped. In higher stakes it’s usually higher because I can semi bluff more but in the micros that can be a leak.
Most winning players at 6-max have a VPIP in the 18-25% ballpark and a PFR in the 15-22% ballpark. Higher numbers might work for some, but are not typical.
@@fundiver198 that would be too tight for 6 max. May work in full ring.
@@lozgod I dont know, what site you play, but on PokerStars these are the numbers, most regulars show up with on my HUD. For full ring its VPIP 14-20 and PFR 11-16. As I said, if higher numbers work for you, thats great, but they are not typical for winning players.
fundiver198 wow. That’s pretty tight. I play a LAG style. The people I see with those types of numbers are rarely at the table with more than 2 maybe 3 buy in stacks in front of them. 2nl I can be sitting there with $12-$13 in front of me a lot of the time. I take lots of small pots from TAGs when they miss and win lots of big ones value betting the fish callers when I hit big. Lots of variance but it works for me. Sometimes I lose 5 buy ins too. My site is WSOP/888 in the US.
If villain calls the 75% bet on the flop, he's probably calling the turn bet too, no?
i am calling the turn check raise and call every river, i dont like the 3bet on the turn- and when the other 5nl (shark) 4bets- i am folding
I agree I don't like the re-raise on the turn.
@@BlackRain79Poker yeahh and they are super depp like 300bb+, if its 100bb i could reraise and call shove on turn, but almost 400bb- i am not getting 3bet by 7x for sure- this hands only call.
Not to brag but i thought full house as soon as he bet 77 cents
What VPIP and PRF do you consiuder to be good fopr microstakes player?
Hey Fen, my latest video is all about the best HUD stats to have: ua-cam.com/video/Ai-GlpQoEBw/v-deo.html
my stats are vpip 40 pfr 10 and AF 1- and i am winning 20bb per 100 in 10 nl for 200k hands- what are you going to say now :)
I am 18/10/4 and I win 6 BB/100 hands NL10 :)
@@marindraganov5897 nice i had 10/4/1 5bb/100 5 nl :)
@dimitur 40/10 and Af = 1 at NL10 and you won 20bb ? So basically have stats like a fish and you won like that over 200k sample ? I don't believe this... prove it with graphs... you must have some crazy variance... ai really doubt you will have the same winning rate when you hit 500k hands
@@Dark_Angel555 i am obviously joking- you really think with this stats you can win 20bb at 10 nl- bro you got to be kidding me
@@postlezone-god5173 lol ok ... now I am relieved ... I thought you were serious
i go crazy "joke " love your vids!
Haha glad my videos help John!
Nathan i am attacking you about the stats thing- what are you going to say - i am attacking now ;)
I don't have anything to say haha. Great job!
You can win at poker only and only when you get LUCKY
.
After 4bet on the turn its 100% fold for hero
Ya I would agree.
he may have 33
you care too much about what people comment.. great content btw!
Na I don't. I check them literally twice a month, if that lol. Thanks though :)
dont limp
Hero did not limp. He got a free play from the BB.
@@fundiver198he lost his stack from the bb behind 2 limpers. if your not going to 3 bet it pre you really should never 4 bet the turn.
@@truetrue2963 Hero should certainly not 3-bet the turn. But that does not mean, that raising preflop is good either.
K7o raise would've been just waste of money here. In micros, someone always calls and then you're playing that tricky hand oop.
Considering limp pot, small bet multiway on the flop and our opponent that's actually rather easy fold on the turn, also, if hero would bet 67-75% on the turn and got raised that would be even less of a difficult fold
PS: I called enough of these raises from these player to totally agree with Nathan here.