With an even number of cards missing, such as 4, breaking 4-0, 3-1, 2-2, 1-3 or 0-4 means that uneven breaking is more likely because two of the cases are equally likely and together are greater than the 2-2 case. An odd number of missing cards, such as 5, can break 0-5, 1-4, 2-3, 3-2, 4-1 or 5-0. So, 2-3 or 3-2 equally likely, and greater than the less balanced cases.
We got taught that for q finesses, 8 ever, 9 never - meaning to try for a finesse with 8 cards and play for a drop with 9. If 9 means opponents probably have 3-1 distribution of the other cards, why are we told to play for the drop? What's the advantage there? Thanks.
Hi Louisa, it’s the combined chances that count. 40% of the time the suit will be 2-2 and if the suit is 3-1, which it will be 50% of the time then there might be a singleton Queen. But with a 9 card for the percentage play is pretty close whether to cash an honour and then finesse or cash two honours playing for the drop. If you have a hunch then go with your hunch!
That was my thinking when I played this, but it failed. In this hand losing the finesse first means you lose 1 diamond trick, 2 club tricks, and 2 spade tricks and go down. When you attack clubs first, you can take 9 tricks before opponents have any chance to win a diamond.
I set up the clubs as I have picked this tip up from a previous video. Thanks Graeme for your informative videos.
Nice one! It’s great when we can recognise important concepts in different hands. Good for you, Sue.
With an even number of cards missing, such as 4, breaking 4-0, 3-1, 2-2, 1-3 or 0-4 means that uneven breaking is more likely because two of the cases are equally likely and together are greater than the 2-2 case. An odd number of missing cards, such as 5, can break 0-5, 1-4, 2-3, 3-2, 4-1 or 5-0. So, 2-3 or 3-2 equally likely, and greater than the less balanced cases.
Ducking the first spade should be fine
We got taught that for q finesses, 8 ever, 9 never - meaning to try for a finesse with 8 cards and play for a drop with 9. If 9 means opponents probably have 3-1 distribution of the other cards, why are we told to play for the drop? What's the advantage there? Thanks.
Hi Louisa, it’s the combined chances that count. 40% of the time the suit will be 2-2 and if the suit is 3-1, which it will be 50% of the time then there might be a singleton Queen. But with a 9 card for the percentage play is pretty close whether to cash an honour and then finesse or cash two honours playing for the drop. If you have a hunch then go with your hunch!
@@Skybridgeclub thanks!
Couldn't you have tried for the diamond finesse first & switched to clubs afterwards?
That was my thinking when I played this, but it failed. In this hand losing the finesse first means you lose 1 diamond trick, 2 club tricks, and 2 spade tricks and go down. When you attack clubs first, you can take 9 tricks before opponents have any chance to win a diamond.
If the diamond finesse doesn't work and then switch to clubs you loose: 1 diamond , 2 spades and 2 clubs before you can claim.
Graeme - how did some people make 10-11 tricks 0n this hand?
No idea, Carola. I suspect an error from the defenders.
@@Skybridgeclub Thanks Graeme - and for all your great videos :-)