The WTA portion of the 2024 Wimbledon draw is out, with Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek on opposite ends of the bracket. Although Iga has not played a grass event this season, is the draw favorable for her to win her first Wimbledon title? Rory Jiwani and Nigel Seeley give their predictions for the women's Wimbledon draw. 00:00 Wimbledon preview 14:43 Wimbledon futures odds 28:30 Wimbledon quarterfinals odds
Fully agree with Rory's thinking about Swiatek but I have to express a hard disagree with Rory on the Muchova bet at only 50-1. First of all, she has no form to go off on and no matches under her belt (an argument he used to undermine the case for Swiatek). But more importantly, contrary to what Rory said she has a really tough draw! Badosa is no bad player on grass...she has reached the fourth round of Wimbledon twice in the last couple of years beating the likes of Kvitova two years ago and though Muchova did beat her in the Fourth round the last time, they were two very tight competitive sets and that was when Muchova was in red hot form so Rory's claim that Badosa has never done anything on grass is simply not true! Then Andreeva in the second round is also a horrible draw for a second round! The way Rory dismissed her you'd think he was referring to Erika Andreeva and not Mirra. Mirra is coming off the back of a semi-final run at Roland Garros and her counter punching (brick wall) game is perfectly suited to grass and she reached the fourth round last year as a 16 year old and is a much better player now! She was even hammering Keys last year before finally getting reeled in and I can't believe Rory is claiming she hasn't done anything on grass as there hadn't been as much hype about a run from a teenager at Wimbledon as there was for Andreeva last year since the Coco Gauff run all those years ago! Kasatkina in the third round is also a tough out as she is in terrific form right now and is one of the more equipped players to deal with Muchova's variety (and to be fair to Rory he also flagged this up) and then she'd have to play the tournament favorite in the Fourth Round. Muchova did beat Sabalenka at the French but clay is Sabalenka's worst surface and she still choked that match away to Muchova. Muchova was also in good form at the time but this time Rory is picking her even though we have no form to go off whatsoever! She is talented enough to make a run here no doubt but I think you'd be hard pressed to find a tougher first four matches anywhere in the women's draw this year and that's before she would even make the quarters! If you price up her projected run, here is how it breaks down ( Badosa (4-5) x Andreeva (11-8) x Kasatkina 4-6 x Sabalenka (2-1) x Alexandrova/Zheng/Raducanu (1-2) x Gauff (6-4) x Rybakina/Swiatek (7-4) , the price comes out at well over 100-1 and that's mostly because of how tough the draw is! Of course the draw can open up and most likely will do so but I honestly think I factored that in by being conservative with some of these prices. She could well end up being priced up as a much bigger dog against the likes of an Andreeva or Sabalenka. Maybe if she shows good form as she moves through the tournament, some of those prices will be closer but there won't be a dramatic enough move to ever make 50-1 pre tournament a value price imo!! Rory's pick just came across as 'I believe in her talent on grass' and there wasn't any more in depth analysis put into her route after that! I hope this doesn't come across as too harsh as I still enjoy listening to Rory's viewpoints so hopefully if he reads this he will take it as just being constructive criticism (although I suspect he would strongly disagree with how I priced it all up but I'm factoring in the fact that she has so little tennis under her belt and I still feel like I am being generous to her in the pricing)!
I really should have stuck with Vekic... great run for Badosa after all her injuries. Not a great surprise to me that Andreeva didn't get far as she has very little grass experience. Paolini showing she's a threat on any surface although I'm gutted about Keys who I think would have won the bottom half had she not injured herself.
Maybe not this year but I'm sure Iga will win Wimby one day. It's just one of her dream task to score and she's a kind of person who achieves her goals with no mercy for the opponents. Only two things can take away victory from Iga: phisical indisposition (unlikely) or lack of confidence on the grass court (maybe). Good to hear from you. Very insighting conversation.
A little late watching this but I agree with Rory until Iga shows she’s improved on grass she’s a fade for me too. I think this is a very open draw. Rybakina prob has the highest upside but I wouldn’t bet her with her recent form/injury woes.
I'm an 1ga fan, but more importantly, I'm a tennis fan. And while I see Rory's point in 1ga's lack of match play on grass, I have to say I'd be more worried if she had played in any of the prep tournaments, having played in absolutely everything for months! So in my opinion, that was the best decision she could have done for herself: saved her from potential injuries + she'll be fresh and hungry, and that's the only way to tackle this horrid draw! But I agree.. too many mines around her when she's in form on her favoured surfaces to make it to quarters, let alone on grass, especially considering the Ostapenko 4th rounder will probably be her limit. Should be an interesting tournament for her though! Elena's draw is tough again, and with her game + record against 1ga, I think she is the real fav no.1 everywhere she plays! However, she's very sickly these days + has her cryptonite girls around her in Samsonova + Kalinskaya, and they are too close to each other in the draw, and to Elena, not to play her. So I don't see Elena reaching quarters either. It's AO draw all over again with Gauf given the easiest of the draws, and Saba too bar that 2nd round against Vekic.. so the history is the best indicator of the future, and I can see a winner from the bottom half of the draw, cos top half will be carnage, and then whoever comes through there will either be too nervous or exhausted in the final. This is Gauf's tournament to lose, with Keys having the best chance to win her 1st slam yet! Keys might be the best bet considering everything. Not Muchova. She could barely produce a string of consecutive victories on her good, healthy days - there always seemed to exist at least one woman in the draw capable of exploiting Muchova's shaky hand in crucial moments + her fitness and wrist won't last for 7 matches. Such a shame all top contenders are in the top half, the bottom half will be a snooze and then we'll also have a winner from there, just like last year, so I can already see I'll hate wimby women's draw developments this year, but let's see.. Love your analysis Nigel, it's obvious you're very knowledgeable + the comments are always spot on and funny 🌙 just found you on youtube so will make sure to stick around 🙏
Elena isnt the no1 everywhere she is playing, iga is. This years winrate and titles prove it again. The only tournament in the whole year that rybakina enters it as a better favourite than iga, is only wimbledon, nothing else
@notis6107 I'm a die hard 1ga fan, but I'm also realistic. 1ga will always struggle against Elena on ALL surfaces, just like Fed struggled against Rafa on ALL surfaces (until he started hitting through his bh rather than slicing it constantly in the later matches they played, only on faster surfaces). And that's OK, Elena is 1ga's antidote and it makes it interesting for us fans. So given both are among top contenders, and Elena's game matching so we'll against 1ga's on ALL surfaces, my opinion is that Elena is the absolute favorite everywhere she plays. And that's OK :)
@@amerajanovic4841 no you are not a fan its actually obvious. Yes iga may have a losing a hth against elena, but she is doing way better than her against all the other top players. Look at their hth against everyone else on the top 10. Iga destroys gauff, sabalenka and pegula. And rybakina is losing to all of them. Also if you have more than 2 functioning brain cells you can understand that iga is the favourite in 90% of tournaments. Thats why she has 22 tournaments and not 8 that elena has, thats why she has 5 grand slams and not 1 like elena. You cant be the absolute favourite and have 14 less titles than the other player. And all that while she is 2 years younger. No you are not an iga fan, its obvious that you are an elena fan, and its ok but dont bs me
How's everyone getting on? Badosa a revelation early on but I'm regretting not backing Vekic for Wimbledon as I normally do... Keys' injury yesterday was truly gutting on several levels. Such a great match and she didn't deserve that but Paolini looks more than capable on grass. Rybakina should win it from here but I wouldn't be surprised if there were more shocks in store.
Missed the mark on this, the point is to not eat chalk in the futures market and favorites rarely if ever win here. Samsonova, Siniakova, Alexandrova, and Shnaider all have legitimate grass court games at odds greater then 50-1 in most places. Tomatoes all around here
You perhaps learnt English but it doesn't mean you are prepared to get any English accent or dialect. Do not worry about. I thought I knew English untill I safely landed at Dover ;) For me both are speaking perfect English. Maybe Nigel goes to fast speaking like a shotgun but nothing's wrong with his pronounciation ;)
The WTA portion of the 2024 Wimbledon draw is out, with Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek on opposite ends of the bracket. Although Iga has not played a grass event this season, is the draw favorable for her to win her first Wimbledon title? Rory Jiwani and Nigel Seeley give their predictions for the women's Wimbledon draw.
00:00 Wimbledon preview
14:43 Wimbledon futures odds
28:30 Wimbledon quarterfinals odds
Fully agree with Rory's thinking about Swiatek but I have to express a hard disagree with Rory on the Muchova bet at only 50-1. First of all, she has no form to go off on and no matches under her belt (an argument he used to undermine the case for Swiatek). But more importantly, contrary to what Rory said she has a really tough draw! Badosa is no bad player on grass...she has reached the fourth round of Wimbledon twice in the last couple of years beating the likes of Kvitova two years ago and though Muchova did beat her in the Fourth round the last time, they were two very tight competitive sets and that was when Muchova was in red hot form so Rory's claim that Badosa has never done anything on grass is simply not true! Then Andreeva in the second round is also a horrible draw for a second round! The way Rory dismissed her you'd think he was referring to Erika Andreeva and not Mirra. Mirra is coming off the back of a semi-final run at Roland Garros and her counter punching (brick wall) game is perfectly suited to grass and she reached the fourth round last year as a 16 year old and is a much better player now! She was even hammering Keys last year before finally getting reeled in and I can't believe Rory is claiming she hasn't done anything on grass as there hadn't been as much hype about a run from a teenager at Wimbledon as there was for Andreeva last year since the Coco Gauff run all those years ago! Kasatkina in the third round is also a tough out as she is in terrific form right now and is one of the more equipped players to deal with Muchova's variety (and to be fair to Rory he also flagged this up) and then she'd have to play the tournament favorite in the Fourth Round. Muchova did beat Sabalenka at the French but clay is Sabalenka's worst surface and she still choked that match away to Muchova. Muchova was also in good form at the time but this time Rory is picking her even though we have no form to go off whatsoever! She is talented enough to make a run here no doubt but I think you'd be hard pressed to find a tougher first four matches anywhere in the women's draw this year and that's before she would even make the quarters! If you price up her projected run, here is how it breaks down ( Badosa (4-5) x Andreeva (11-8) x Kasatkina 4-6 x Sabalenka (2-1) x Alexandrova/Zheng/Raducanu (1-2) x Gauff (6-4) x Rybakina/Swiatek (7-4) , the price comes out at well over 100-1 and that's mostly because of how tough the draw is! Of course the draw can open up and most likely will do so but I honestly think I factored that in by being conservative with some of these prices. She could well end up being priced up as a much bigger dog against the likes of an Andreeva or Sabalenka. Maybe if she shows good form as she moves through the tournament, some of those prices will be closer but there won't be a dramatic enough move to ever make 50-1 pre tournament a value price imo!! Rory's pick just came across as 'I believe in her talent on grass' and there wasn't any more in depth analysis put into her route after that! I hope this doesn't come across as too harsh as I still enjoy listening to Rory's viewpoints so hopefully if he reads this he will take it as just being constructive criticism (although I suspect he would strongly disagree with how I priced it all up but I'm factoring in the fact that she has so little tennis under her belt and I still feel like I am being generous to her in the pricing)!
I really should have stuck with Vekic... great run for Badosa after all her injuries. Not a great surprise to me that Andreeva didn't get far as she has very little grass experience. Paolini showing she's a threat on any surface although I'm gutted about Keys who I think would have won the bottom half had she not injured herself.
Maybe not this year but I'm sure Iga will win Wimby one day. It's just one of her dream task to score and she's a kind of person who achieves her goals with no mercy for the opponents.
Only two things can take away victory from Iga: phisical indisposition (unlikely) or lack of confidence on the grass court (maybe).
Good to hear from you. Very insighting conversation.
A little late watching this but I agree with Rory until Iga shows she’s improved on grass she’s a fade for me too. I think this is a very open draw. Rybakina prob has the highest upside but I wouldn’t bet her with her recent form/injury woes.
I'm an 1ga fan, but more importantly, I'm a tennis fan. And while I see Rory's point in 1ga's lack of match play on grass, I have to say I'd be more worried if she had played in any of the prep tournaments, having played in absolutely everything for months! So in my opinion, that was the best decision she could have done for herself: saved her from potential injuries + she'll be fresh and hungry, and that's the only way to tackle this horrid draw! But I agree.. too many mines around her when she's in form on her favoured surfaces to make it to quarters, let alone on grass, especially considering the Ostapenko 4th rounder will probably be her limit. Should be an interesting tournament for her though! Elena's draw is tough again, and with her game + record against 1ga, I think she is the real fav no.1 everywhere she plays! However, she's very sickly these days + has her cryptonite girls around her in Samsonova + Kalinskaya, and they are too close to each other in the draw, and to Elena, not to play her. So I don't see Elena reaching quarters either. It's AO draw all over again with Gauf given the easiest of the draws, and Saba too bar that 2nd round against Vekic.. so the history is the best indicator of the future, and I can see a winner from the bottom half of the draw, cos top half will be carnage, and then whoever comes through there will either be too nervous or exhausted in the final. This is Gauf's tournament to lose, with Keys having the best chance to win her 1st slam yet! Keys might be the best bet considering everything. Not Muchova. She could barely produce a string of consecutive victories on her good, healthy days - there always seemed to exist at least one woman in the draw capable of exploiting Muchova's shaky hand in crucial moments + her fitness and wrist won't last for 7 matches. Such a shame all top contenders are in the top half, the bottom half will be a snooze and then we'll also have a winner from there, just like last year, so I can already see I'll hate wimby women's draw developments this year, but let's see.. Love your analysis Nigel, it's obvious you're very knowledgeable + the comments are always spot on and funny 🌙 just found you on youtube so will make sure to stick around 🙏
Great points . Good luck over the next fortnight .
Elena isnt the no1 everywhere she is playing, iga is. This years winrate and titles prove it again. The only tournament in the whole year that rybakina enters it as a better favourite than iga, is only wimbledon, nothing else
@notis6107 I'm a die hard 1ga fan, but I'm also realistic. 1ga will always struggle against Elena on ALL surfaces, just like Fed struggled against Rafa on ALL surfaces (until he started hitting through his bh rather than slicing it constantly in the later matches they played, only on faster surfaces). And that's OK, Elena is 1ga's antidote and it makes it interesting for us fans. So given both are among top contenders, and Elena's game matching so we'll against 1ga's on ALL surfaces, my opinion is that Elena is the absolute favorite everywhere she plays. And that's OK :)
@@amerajanovic4841 no you are not a fan its actually obvious. Yes iga may have a losing a hth against elena, but she is doing way better than her against all the other top players. Look at their hth against everyone else on the top 10. Iga destroys gauff, sabalenka and pegula. And rybakina is losing to all of them. Also if you have more than 2 functioning brain cells you can understand that iga is the favourite in 90% of tournaments. Thats why she has 22 tournaments and not 8 that elena has, thats why she has 5 grand slams and not 1 like elena. You cant be the absolute favourite and have 14 less titles than the other player. And all that while she is 2 years younger. No you are not an iga fan, its obvious that you are an elena fan, and its ok but dont bs me
How's everyone getting on? Badosa a revelation early on but I'm regretting not backing Vekic for Wimbledon as I normally do... Keys' injury yesterday was truly gutting on several levels. Such a great match and she didn't deserve that but Paolini looks more than capable on grass. Rybakina should win it from here but I wouldn't be surprised if there were more shocks in store.
Missed the mark on this, the point is to not eat chalk in the futures market and favorites rarely if ever win here. Samsonova, Siniakova, Alexandrova, and Shnaider all have legitimate grass court games at odds greater then 50-1 in most places. Tomatoes all around here
i speak english and i couldnt understand a single word yall just said.
You perhaps learnt English but it doesn't mean you are prepared to get any English accent or dialect. Do not worry about. I thought I knew English untill I safely landed at Dover ;)
For me both are speaking perfect English. Maybe Nigel goes to fast speaking like a shotgun but nothing's wrong with his pronounciation ;)