Texas vs Washington - Sugar Bowl College Football Playoffs Preview
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- Опубліковано 1 жов 2024
- Michael Penix and this Washington passing attack are coming in sky high after dumping Oregon for the PAC 12 title. Quinn Ewers is healthy and ready to run Sark's offensive wizardy to its fullest extent after leading Texas through the Big 12. Sugar Bowl victory and a shot at the title is on the line.
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So surprising that you picked the two “SEC” teams to win 🙄
Top passing team facing a horrible passing defense and they hold them to low 20’s?!?
Still love watching you guys but come on
yeah, they have their favorite conferences. When it's a toss-up, they lean SEC. In the case of Michigan, when they are clearly the favorite, they still lean SEC and double-speak their way out of it.
As long as you and your model is still as accurate as it was for the pac12 championship UW fans are still looking good. Best quote “i never believed Oregon was that much better than UW”. Watch your own show
"I never never bought into the narrative that Oregon was clearly better than Washington," yet picked Oregon to cover -9.5 in the PAC12 championship
Yep. He constantly recalibrates his expectations. Lol
Bro was wrong by like a 21 point swing and pretended it never happened
@@PurpleHazeVanNederlands Yep. Wrong again by the same margin. Lmao
Don't lie to us Josh, you picked Oregon to blow out Washington like Vegas did
This is the worst analysis I’ve heard so far
Oops, you guys were wrong about Washington, again. I thought Pac-12 had weak defenses. Washington wasn't the best of that lot, but still held the high-flying Texans down.
This idea that Washington won’t be able to run will be the first of many poor assumptions
Washington is the worst matchup for Texas. WA an elite passing game against a good but not great secondary in TX. In these big games, the elite passing game wins when the line of scrimmage is a push. Washington is an enigma to me. They play to their competition. I got WA winning 34-27.
Can't wait for the next video where your opinions are hilariously wrong...Thanks for the laughs
Is this comedy?
If TCU, Houston and K State can all score more than 21 then UW will score at least 30. Also, I watched 4 Texas games and 4 Oregon games. Too much orange kool aide
Wrong again on both picks. Lol. They just hate Washington because they look at talent composites.
The college football know-it-alls swing and miss again
The team that led the nation in passing “wants to use power to center the offense n throw down the field as a compliment” 🙄😂? I agree UW got slightly more “balanced” as the year went on, due to Dillon Johnson coming into his own a lil down the stretch, but runs a variation of Air Raid. The run game was developed to keep teams honest but *ABSOLUTELY* not a power run team, passing as a compliment. This analysis puts everything else said (by the one homie) in huge doubt. As for the other Texas predictions, four teams kept it w/in one score of Texas (including a loss) n those 4 teams did that through the air. Texas may frustrate UW w/ the run at times, but Penix n crew will throughly pass at will. Much has been made of, n rightly so, of Texas’ front 7. At ur own peril u can ignore UW’s Joe Moore awards winning O-line + own defensive All-Americans + timeliness of D standing up when *needed*.
I don't think Penix was sacked once
Stat nerds often look at stats as if each team was at full strength each game and they started the same players and they don’t factor in changes in scheme etc.
Here is just one of many examples I could give for both teams…
Washington’s rushing stats are very very different from the first 8 games vs the last 5.
There is a reason these “models” are constantly being tweaked. It’s because when they are wrong, you go, “How did that happen…”.
Washington played through a stronger schedule and won in different ways. Lean on the pass game, lean on the run game, or lean on the defense. It will be a good game but when Texas gets ran on for 100+ yards people will realize they forgot how good Dillon Johnson has been since he got healthy. UW wins 38-30
No Washington didn’t. Strength of schedule is 40th Texas is 5th. Get your facts straight bruh
And your running back might …might go for 50. I’d take the under on the 50
@@HornsTusks, huh... yeah, they definitely had the tougher schedule. 🙄
close prediction! only off by 1 point on each.
@HornsTusks SOS for Washington was 2nd lol. Hornsdown
Hookem
Your entire take on this game is predicated on Texas being able to completely bottle up the Washington run game, I understand from a whole season stats point of view but they haven't been that successful in a lot of games because they haven't had to. Against USC DJ ran for 254 Penix passed for 254. They got 152 against Oregon when Oregon was very good against the run. The Huskies also have the best O-line in the country. Texas is big up front and will be a serious challenge but I don't think Texas can shut down the run game completely because so much attention will be on the pass offense. If Texas does try to put too much attention on stopping the run, Penix will have a field day.
Ollie Gordon had 34 yards on Texas. Tahi brooks being fed barely got to 100. Dillon is a dawg but it doesn't matter in the face of one of the best D Lines in a Generation.
@@raintalbotts258 "best D-lines in a generation"? OK I think that's a bit hyperbolic. I know they are good but when you play a team like Washington that is great at passing you cannot focus on the run or you will get waffle stomped. They will have to to cover, not just the 3 great WRT's but very good TE's and DJ in the pass too. BTW the Huskies TE's and WR's also block extremely well so I see a lot of rush yards coming from the edge.
Fellas, I enjoy your content. This particular analysis comes off as typical east coast/south bias.If I remember correctly your model was overwhelmingly in favor of Oregon both times. It seems like yall have not watched the Huskies in totality (you watched two games and UW beat the team your model and who yall thought would win...twice). Washington runs the ball better than yall give them credit for. Texas DB's are mid at best. Penix, McMillan, Polk, and Odunze at full health are going to have field day against Texas. It is a bummer yall have not learned at this point but Washington will prove it once again. Appreciate the work you do and do deeply enjoy your analysis.
Washington is 101st in rushing and 81st when adjusted for opponents. They run the ball 6% worse against their opponents average opponent - which includes G5s, 3 win bottom of the conference teams, etc. But even in spite of that, we literally gave them credit for their run game in this video. I wish Washington established a solid #2 RB with production behind Johnson. He's truly great, but it's good to have a second guy who can come in and be nearly as effective or a good change of pace.
No elite team does the lone feature-back thing anymore for a reason.
Part of this is because UW throws it a lot, so the problem isn't as acute as it would be if Michigan or Ohio State were rolling out one guy to get all the carries. But it's still something they will likely adjust to in the future.
Texas couldn't beat Oklahoma
I say a 70% chance Washington wins in an offensive shootout, and 30% chance Texas shuts it down with a dominant win from their Defensive Line.
Washington loses to usc if usc has a sliver of defense. Texas can produce at the same level as usc against Washington’s defense if they want and have a significantly better defense. I don’t think Washington fans understand the MAN difference they are about to see here. The PAC has nothing to offer that is comparable. Texas by 17. They can run in this game and pace Washington. This isn’t going to be a shootout. Shootouts happen when teams can’t play defense. I’m a big12 fan. I know…….. the under is the play here also.
Ummm...#5 Oregon plays better defense than Texas, is loaded with 4 and 5 star talent and played in the Pac 12 - the conference with all the best QB's and offenses. UW beat Oregon twice. Sweat got ONE tackle in the Alamo Bowl last year and UW just awarded best O-line in the nation this year. @@johnjohnson1997
@@EdwardNigma48333934 lol Washington just two games ago were lucky to squeak out a win at home against a terrible 2-7 Washington State. Husky fans may be the most delusional fan base in all CFB 😆
@johnjohnson1997 the man difference? Oregon has almost the same amount of blue chip players as Texas and they beat them twice. The most talented teams doesn't always win. Texas lost to Washington and they had way more talent last year. GTFOH
He said Washington 21 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 you cant make this up 😂🤦🏽♂️🤦🏽♂️🤦🏽♂️.
Washington might be at 21 by halftime.
Hey... they were.. well both teams were..
I couldn’t agree more
If Washington won't run on Texas, how did Washington run for over 150 yards in the Alamo bowl?
These 2 teams are different from last year.
@@CoastalSpark23 not by much!
Texas isn’t running a script in the fourth quarter. Yet, Ewers has the best QBR in the fourth quarter of any college qb in twenty years.
Quinn Ewers has the highest 4th quarter QBR. Seems like he might be okay when the script is over…
Quinn has the highest 4th quarter QBR of any QB in the last 20 years, so im not sure what you mean by Ewers struggling off-script
Washington was one or two plays away from blowing out Texas. Stupid penalties like running into the punt receiver, and dropping a punt made a huge difference in this game. Otherwise Washington was controlling the game. Texas is a great team but they just ran into a better one.
The model doesn't seem to be taking the Flu that swept the UW locker room in the middle of the season. I didn't know weed was legal in Texas.
Where is the Wishingwell in New Orleans so I can find all the Utah fans
Washington has low run yards over the year, not because they can’t run. It’s that they often chose not to. When they have wanted to, they run more than okay. It throws of your data.
Washington faced Utah, the 4th best run defense in the nation, and washington was the only team that had a player rush for more than 100 yards against them. Oregon is also a top 10 run defense. Heck Oregon state is top 13, and they still rushed for more than 100 in each of those. They don’t need a ton of rush yards. Dillon Johnson will get enough.
@@gregoryfugal4722 top ten according to whom?
@@gregoryfugal4722 Oregon state had amazing defense against Notre Dame
@@drew7155 look up top run defenses, I got it from the NCAA’s website. It’s not that hard, and if you think that was the same oregon state team in the regular season you are an idiot, do you even know what happened to them?
Hook 'em
I feel like your assessment of Tx in the 4th qt doesnt match up with what i saw this year in their games. Other than the Ou game, i feel like they typically pulled away in the 4th qt, i.e., bama game. I think they can weae teams down, especially if they are running for 5yds per carry. That also means they are keeping Penix off the field.
They didn't play well in the fourth quarter against Houston, TCU and K State
Oregon has an almost identical run game and identical stats (just under 200 yards rushing per game). But Oregon's star RB's ran for less than 60 yards in the Pac 12 Championship. It was the first time UW's D was healthy since early in the season!
@@johndavidlatta8192Have you looked at Oregons schedule? Weak weak weak…
Take away Bama and Texas schedule would look like Oregon's. And Pac 12 is way better than Big 12 this year. And go look at how Oregon DOMINATED in most of their games. Texas struggled or lost in 4 or 5 games. @@BobbyHansen-m8y
Great analysis and you touched on a few things I haven’t heard others talk about! However, you missed a couple of points that go against some of your comments. Ewers is the most accurate passer(80%) in the 4Q throughout the entire season according to PFF. That doesn’t match your off-script issues and Texas’ need to run out to a lead to hold on to a win you guys claim. Of course, there are a number of games where Ewers didn’t play in the 4Q because of injury (UH, KSU, BYU) or they took their foot off the gas(Rice, Baylor, Kansas, TexTech, OK St). They just haven’t needed him to do it very often but he has played well in the 4Q when needed(Bama, OU, Iowa St at less than 90% healthy and TCU at less than 80%).
I like Washington in this game.
Maybe i’m just weird, but as good as Washington’s receivers are, I don’t feel like they really have someone who is just a pure burner in terms of speed like Worthy, at least in their starting lineup. Jabbar Muhammad is a decent corner, but how well can he play against guys that can really take the top off a defense?
well, good thing they didn't play how you "felt". They were clearly the better group of receivers.
Washington fans going to lose their minds watching this. They're still living in the 2022 alamo bowl💀
Guess Wayne Taulapapa will get stuffed all day by the Texas Def.
But since the Texas stars who opted out for the Alamo Bowl did not return this year, aren't these essentially the same teams as last year? I mean sheez...Sweat only got ONE tackle last year and you can't blame that on missing some star RB's! UW is better in all phases of the game compared to last year and I'm sure Texas is too. (Stats don't show that UW was missing like TEN starters for the last 8 regular season games - but when healthy, UW is really good - best O-line in the nation and #5 in special teams in the nation and still have NFL QB and WR's.
@@johndavidlatta8192same Texas team but much more chemistry and experience together now
This guy only talked about Texas. Nothing on Washington's strengths. Homer to the Texas fans .
We watch outside of Texas, that's for sure. Do you? LOL! @@t.taylor948
Horns are far too loaded, that being said Sark can get far too cute and blow this game with his idiocy, he's limited it this year, but in games like ou he's shown he makes the incorrect call far too often. I like Washington a lot, and like you guys said did not buy the oregon hype. I think the difference maker will be the "home field" advantage for Texas, and the revenge factor from last year's alamo bowl. Texas 48- Washington 44
Washington wins 38-31.
Well Nerd Josh/Nerd Dan, I'm doing my victory lap, even though I was a point off.
@@ace-man5863 you were damn near close!
@@autoscopy that last drive had me sweating bullets ngl, my pick was about to be way wrong from way close.
Texas lost to Oklahoma because of turnovers. If they avoid that against Washington they’re more likely to win Texas will be missing their best cover safety who is a freshman Williams for the first half because of a targeting penalty It will be without Brooks. They have to be able to make penix uncomfortable when he tries to pass.
You guys are way wrong. Washington wins by double digits.
I completely disagree with you. My Texas Longhorns will beat the Washington Huskies in the Sugar Bowl by fourteen points in my opinion. But on the other hand unless if Quinn Ewers either gets hurt or struggles Washington will beat us in that situation
@@minaeldiwany3215😂😂😂😂 did the beat em??? i didn’t get to see the game??? Did YOUR texas longhorns win by 14????
I love how everyone just assumes we can’t run the ball even though we dominated Oregon on the ground
Texas’ defense line is honestly a whole other caliber compared to Oregon. I want to see how good your Joe Moore award-winning Offensive Line is against imo the best defensive front 4 in the country.
6 huskies and 6 Longhorns projected to go in rounds 1-2 in nfl draft
Really great analysis. The only thing that gets overblown some and I believe Sark would say the same is the overemphasis about the “script”.
Texas doesn’t have like 15-20 plays that are run regardless of down & distance. Sark pivots every down depending on what the defense is doing and Flood even commented about this very thing.
Bout time!
That’s, the thing. That’s my edge. I understand exactly how good McMillan and those other receivers are. McMillan is their best receiver.
Absolutely no love for Dillon Johnson and UW’s offensive line. He just ran for 152 on Oregon.
You can't compare Oregons Dline to Texas Dline. Texas has the #1 and #2 defensive tackles in the nation. Look it up
@@AutoghostsproutUW just won the Moore Award - look it up.
Wow yall have no idea how much of a relief it is to hear someone with the proper analysis of Texas. I’m so tired of only hearing the same thing about Texas Db’s vs Washington wrs.
The Washington wide receivers are absolutely going to shred your DBs.
@@MH-0101 lol I guess we’re both going to be some db shredding mfers then. Any other aspect of the game you think is important?
@@wheel-e-umm I think it basically comes down to Texas just stopping themselves. Texas is the superior team in every game they play in but Sark out coaches himself sometimes and makes things really hard.
@@MH-0101dude how can you criticize Sark. He took Texas from a losing team to a team that is competing for a National Championship in 2 seasons!! He’s an offensive guru, and a damn good head coach. Granted Texas always was stacked with talent, just didn’t have the coaching, so he came into one of the best jobs in CFB.
@@BeastReview he’s done a great job. He also goes for hard to execute plays when sometimes he needs to be simple.
At various time Washington had McMillan out, the team had the flu, Penix looked like he had some sort of rib injury. That explains some of the inconsistency.
Oh is that what it was? Now it’s all roses…lol inconsistent in the weak as f pac 12
@HornsTusks As if the Big 12 is full of world beaters or Texas blew out every team on their schedule. Plus, every team is going to be as healthy as they have been all season, not a stretch to say that will affect things.
@@greenearth975 Yeah, neither conference is a good measuring stick. Both have struggled against opponents they should've put away more easily. Both teams have struggled through some key injuries. I'm glad both teams will have most of their starters back (although I hate that our leading rusher is out with an ACL injury). Looking forward to a good game, and Hook 'em!
Texas lost starting QB and RB. Literally. And has been criticized for those games all season.
@drew7155 Just saying either you believe teams deserve the benefit of context or neither do. Either way, they have been similar in a lot of ways. Should be an exciting game.
For Washington to win the game feel like defense is going to have to step up for Washington
Maybe Pac12 Defense has always been better than everyone thought.
Texas close and high scoring. Wouldn’t be shocked if washington pulls it off
You deserve an award sir 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
What i think Washington needs to do in order to beat Texas is run tempo. Against Oklahoma, T'Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy were ineffective after the first quarter cause they were clearly gassed, so gassed that they brought both of them to block on the goal line and they were stopped 3 straight times. What all that tempo created was run lanes for Dillon Gabriel and Oklahoma later on. Another concern is how Texas doesn't have a good pass rush, their edge guys aren't impressive which is why I could see Penix having all day to throw. Texas on the other hand has Sark and when he has time to scheme against you, he can be deadly. I see this as a bit of a high scoring game, close and it comes down to the final possession and in that scenario, i trust Washington cause winning close is all they've done this year.
You can Sack the QB from the tackle position to sir. Also, penix can run. He's not Dillon G.
*can't run
Explain why your model still favors GA by 7 vs Bama
Penix is ready for the big dance 🕺
And regardless of whether my Texas Longhorns win the National Championship this year or not we’re still the best team in college football this year.
Think Texas wins but Washington will get there points. 35 - 27 Texas
Did you guys throw shade at Josh Pate fans? Lmao
The way Oregon looked more competitive at end of half is due to one of the worst DPI I have ever seen, then Oregon marched down the field because the DBs were scared to touch them
Texas going to boatrace UDUB 😂
Nah, UW has a national championship-caliber rowing team. UW will win a boat race.
I want to see Ewers get pressured. I think he really struggles under pressure, but he hasn't really been exposed to that much this season. Can Washington do it? That is what will likely decide the game
No qb is good under pressure vs no pressure. Question is... how will Penix be under pressure? That is more likely the scenario. If he can act quick outside the pocket like Gabriel for OU, could be a rough day for Longhorns. We shall see
@@drew7155Penix doesn’t get himself under pressure that often because of how quickly he gets the ball off, and if you try to blitz him he’ll see it coming and try to take your top off
Washington fans in shambles 😂
hmm
One underrated player for Texas in this game: Adonai Mitchell. He caught touchdowns in each of UGA’s 4 playoff games during their title runs and has been clutch for Texas this season as well. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if he had a bigger game than Worthy did.
I have my Texas Longhorns beating the Washington Huskies in the Sugar Bowl 42-28 because I think we’re going to be up 42-21 and then Washington scores a touchdown to make it 42-28 and then we recover an onside kick to seal the win for us.
💀💀💀💀
I think Josh is right that it’s either going to be Texas by an early blowout or Washington last minute.
I think Washington can do it on a last minute drive. 33-31.
Huskies 31- Tex 28
I think Josh is spot on at the end about how the game plays out regarding the likelihood of a Texas win. I also agree that the big lights could flatten Texas a bit, maybe not this game but if they win and face Alabama in the championship game, the revenge factor could help that come into play. That’s just a rabbit hole thought, Sark seems to have turned the culture around. If UW wins, I think it would be a game that comes down to the wire with Penix making a play.
I agree with the predictions, my feeling is if the Texas defense can turn UW one-dimensional, no matter how great that one dimension is, with just a little bit of pressure on Penix, an interception by TX becomes huge. Texas has a lot of sacks and interceptions. QB pressure and mistakes go hand in hand. Texas 34 UW 21
If this game is close in the 4th qtr Washington wins. They're battle tested and they just seem so comfortable in those late situations all year. They're opportunistic and always seem to make big plays at the end of games.
How similar do you guys think Oklahoma and Washington are? I'm a OU guy but I think Washington is a bit better. And we seen what OU did to Texas
But that was because the Qb ran for 100 yds. I don't see Penix doing that. Like they said, Washington likely to be 1 dimensional and that typically doesn't translate to a recipe for success.
If Ewers turns the ball over then Texas could easily lose to Washington just like Oklahoma. The turnovers are what made that game a win for Oklahoma (3-0 turnover margin).
Not overly similar. Washington is more of a threat to make crazy splash plays in the vertical passing game, but doesn't have the same kind of dynamic spread run game. Just very different teams and different schemes. I think Penix makes a lot of throws Gabriel can't, but Gabriel is more consistent and a bigger threat to run.
@@CollegeFootballNerds Penix definitely has a stronger arm. How about defensively? On there best day OU played pretty well but Texas still had a day on offense. And Texas got after bama pretty good too
@@CollegeFootballNerdsWashington is Oklahoma on steroids. Way better receivers and running backs.
Well informed breakdown fellas.
The narrative that Texas’ secondary is a massive weakness/problem is overplayed.
That’s their only take, and the other is they beat us last year and they’re more improved than we are 😂
This foregone conclusion that Washington won’t be able to run the ball at all is laughable
Texas’s defensive line is essentially an NFL line. There’s good reason for that rationale.
Tbh it doesn’t really matter. Not where the game will be won.
The Huskies have a realistic chance of winning if Penix has time to throw because the Longhorns secondary is vulnerable to passing.
Seeing both teams play throughout the season, this game may surprise a lot of people. The month off for each team allows both to get nearly completely healthy. I expect the Texas D to giveup a few big plays, but CFB Nerds said, this game might come down to how Washington's D responds and how early they respond. Redzone efficiency for Texas will be a HUGE stat to look at in this game. Especially since Sark likes to gamble 4th downs quite a bit (including the goal line stand Oklahoma had to flip the momentum and win the game). If the Texas offense can be good on 3rd down and redzone efficiency, I'd say they win relatively comfortably (10 points or so).
You don't watch the Longhorns clearly lol. Last half of the season sark takes the 3. I feel like huskies and college football pundits are still living in October and early November. Go rewatch the apple bowl. The game before Oregon. Wash does not look good. Meanwhile Texas is clicking on all cylinders.
Bama vs Texas in the natty & Bama wins #19 🏆 🐘 RTR!!
I really hope you’re wrong
Texas secondary is their weakest link, if Penix has time to throw, look out, in the Alabama game Milroe had players open several times but didn't have time to throw it, Texas front 7 is great.
I see this as a pretty easy Texas win. Give me Texas 45-17
I love reading the comments sections and finding the most idiotic takes from keyboard commandos who have no idea what they are talking about. An absolute banger.
Washington will score 48 points and will win by 10+ points against Texas. KB will teach another master class in game planning against a familiar opponent. Go Huskies!!🙏🏼🙏🏼
Hook’em🤘🏼
Penix ran a lot at Indiana, he may be able to tap into that for this game. You have to lay it on the line at this point. He may surprise them. Arizona could beat Texas.
He's run some in his past, but he's really bulked up and isn't a very good primary runner. He's more a mobile pro-style guy than a dual-threat, honestly.
“Arizona could beat Texas.” Why didn’t they beat Mississippi State?
Yeah pre tearing both ACLs and breaking his ankle.
you wish!!.
Arizona, the road team, took Mississippi State into OT. And of course, tonight they thumped OU....who beat Texas. So it's clear that Arizona would beat Texas. Oh, and Washington beat Arizona this year. Draw your own conclusion.@@EulogyfortheAngels
I think this will be the most wrong you have ever been on a game. Texas is the better team top to bottom but they don’t have a prayer in hell in stopping Washington’s receivers.
3 top tier receivers who would start on any team in the nation and thrive. Crazy how Odunze put up the numbers he did while Polk still hit 1,000 yards receiving
There might be more to this game than Washington's receivers. Texas has receivers too.
@@JJ-qh5dn Yeah but Texas will stop their own receivers at some point.
@@MH-0101 You're not making a lot of sense
@@JJ-qh5dn Texas stops themselves. They make easy plays difficult.
Washington loses to Michigan in the Natty
Texas loses to Alabama in the Natty.
Texas wins the whole thing. 🤘🏼
I don't think they play a consolation game for third place.
@@jonwalter6317 Sucks for Bama and Texas then 🤣