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Interesting take and TA. We tend to forget about economics outside the states. Very astute to bring it up in eval and TA. Merry Christmas to you are yours
thank you so much for your reviews camel. have been actively learning and developing my own thesis thanks to your valuable information. Wishing you an amazing christmas with your family.
The Fed Balance sheet has no bearing on "money printing". You are looking at a BALANCE SHEET, that is to say, liabilities against assets, which net out. QT means banks from a composition perspective can actually lend more! We can see a glimpse into our future by looking at total bank credit MoM % change. We are entering a bonanza not a recession.
I hit the books on this. I feel like this was missing category for me but I still don't know enough about finance to have everything fit together perfectly. May I ask, which banking composition benifits the most from the QT? I also wonder, do you think the banks have been taking advantage of the FED's inability to determine the different between what is ample vs abundant reserves. Looking into this has me wondering....have the banks figured out a way to control the FED instead of the FED controlling the banks??
Another interesting take so thanks very much Camel! I feel like I've learned a tonne from you this year and am looking forward to continuing to learn in the new year. Hope you have a Merry Christmas 🌲
Marry Christmas Camel. Get some well deserved rest. I truly hope the markets won’t go to 💩 in the next couple of days so that we can all spend some time with our families. All the best to you and all the folks here.
@christodd2633 thanks for the reply, I searched for that on trading view but couldn’t find it. TVC:US30Y comes up typing the whole thing gives no results. I’ll make a ticket on trading view though to see if there’s something else I can do cheers
Merry Christmas to you and your family. Thanks for your continued updates and no nonsense analysis. You’re a shining light amongst the BS. All the best for 2025..! Thank you Camel 🙏🏼
Thanks for the years work Camel, will definitely be there next year !! Would love to know an estimate on much gold could go up next year. Rough %age guess ?
@@relaxbro5605 The dollar is the world reserve currency, what this means in a fiat money system is that there is significant debt owed in dollars around the world in dollars. In fact, more dollars are owed outside the US than inside. The reason there is significant debt owed is it's less risky to transact in dollars because there is so much demand, the dollar is used in every international transaction outside of Russia in the entire world. Every large company owes debts in dollars. Can this breakdown? Sure, in the long run. As long as this demand exists, it's pretty easy for them to issue more debt and quantitatively ease because there is demand for dollars almost no matter what. It's why Europe and China are in major recessions and the US is doing ok for now. I'm not saying the US should be doing this, but it is how the system works and why US debt doesn't really matter - and when it does start to matter it's going to be literally the end of the world as we know it as the entire world economic system breaks down.
Thanks for your insight Camel! One question I have is on the dxy, less TA more just wondering about the mechanics of it. If the trump administration wants to foster more global trade and generate money through tariffs, then won’t they be hampered by an excessively strong dollar? Disincentivises other countries to export to the US and also hampers their ability to repay USD denominated debt via the eurodollar and other ccy markets running away from them? Happy Christmas!!
He doesn't know anymore than you do. What you can do is draw the same trendline under the price of the nasdaq on your chart and when it breaks down derisk your position or sell. Draw the next lower trendline, see if that holds as support. If it does then you can buy and hold above that trendline. You can do this with moving averages too and it makes the trendlines for you.
Awesome stuff. Only thing I'd mention is that UK GDP figs and forecast are largely self inflicted. Doesn't mean other nations will follow and be so idiotic about their policies.
Being confident about an early top in January is currently a high Risk take camel. It is indeed Good that fed is cutting at a slower rate which will ulitmately lead to a soft landing. In respect to the usa dept it should be pretty clear that the Printer has to turn on evantually. With this outcome everything could take us back to normal cycle theory with top in Q4 2025 or even early 2026
Wouldn’t that mean up or sideways for the stock market for almost an entire year? Respectfully, there’s no way this is sustainable with this much trouble for the consumer. The house of cards will fall. But of course, no one knows shit about fuck and I could be totally wrong here
Camal how do you plan to take crypto spot profits, will you DCA out after a certain point or just unload your holdings. It’s my first full cycle and I’m unsure what is the best approach.
it depends on the setup at the time, but I will notify members in real time as always - I suspect it will be a gradual unwinding over a few days - same as I did for MSTR
Recent follower, alot of respect for you & your way of analysis a quick question to understand one thing All say Spx and btc are co-related so if spx is finding its low isnt btc going to correct along with it ? Or you think the money will flow from spx to btc Happy holidays!
i have my hyperwave third angle for bitcoin at 85k ish early jan when the DCL is in. That's also where the 0.382 retracement from the yen carry trade to 108k is. So 85k the highest probability i think. If bitcoin is really in a hyperwave that would mean 100% increase in 50-60 days left (same increase as third angle, half the time.) So a target of 170k ish. Does this sound right or am I missing something? Thanks Camel and Happy Holidays!
All coming together. Trust the process and you will win with BTC and gold. Alts I am more worried out because the drawdowns make holding negative. Inflation coming.
Thanks Camel, learnt more from you then i did from my economics degree this year 😂. Wishing you and the family a very Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. 🍾
Dear Camel, It may sound early but do we have a plan, strategy after selling all? I mean bitcoin. We will wait for bear market to go deep? Do you have any plans to short btc? I remember you're planning to open a short position for mstr, yes? still early to short mstr do you think?
The reality is, printing is the new norm. Printing is like an addiction, once it's started its very hard to stop. It's like an addict always looking for their next hit. Tell me why they wouldn't print?
Also, look at what China are doing... Huge stimulus packages predicted for 2025. It's a race to see who can devalue their currency the most effectively to improve international competitiveness. In a global fiat backed system, there is no way out of the printing now unfortunately. The curve is going to be exponential until the fiat system as we know it collapses.
The US' DOGE is all smoke and mirrors. It gives people the illusion that Trump plans to fix the debt problem with efficiency improvements. In reality, the debt to GBP ratio is so high that the only way out is through increased printing. What other way out of this do you envisage? We can't simply grow our way out of this problem.
I posit that there is a wild card in play: D.O.G.E. The chainsaw to ludicrously inept spending in d.c. on the hill can have a positive effect on the economy as well. Devils advocate, it could also take a 2008 crash effect as well.
That’s fair. We are all going through our own challenges. Try not to let the trolls get to you, or the frustration of the naïveté of us noobs push you to the dark side. Hope you and your family have a great Christmas. 🎄
Why would the fed want to bring out qe up here. They want to sell up here. Liquidity will come to buy assets when assets are cheep obvious. Your the goat bro only ine seeing this.
The magnificent 7 and even Walmart are trading well above 30 PE, which means owning one of those stocks literally has worse profit returns than owning a treasury bond. In fact, every top stock is yielding less profit than a 2-30 year treasury bond, the entire index yields less than bonds. And it's not going to grow it's way out - Apple hasn't increased profit significantly in 4 years, every company has just been tweaking the balance sheet to report "good" earnings. (Look at trading view, 6.08 '24 vs 5.7 in '21 EPS - stock has increased 114% REGARDLESS of the 5% increase in profits) Apple is not a growth company, neither is Microsoft, or Amazon. This is the last market bubble they should be treated differently than IBM. This is going to end badly no matter what happens and the "reason" will just be whatever straw finally breaks the market's back.
All it takes is old men around a table confirming QE until then no one really knows the future. Don’t get caught up in the hype or doom. Stay rational and make money 🎉
I'm new to investing, and l've lost a good sum trying out strategies I found in online tutorials. I would sincerely appreciate any recommendations you have.
Trump has two options: 1. Print at a mild/steady pace or 2. Print at a rapid pace later. I think Trump wants to avoid anything long and destructive, and people respond to cash. Why not Print? A timeline can only slip so much before it's called a new plan. I do this for a living, and I take your points of view with high regard. I would like to hear your thoughts on why such a prolonged downturn would be accepted by Trump. Are you saying printing won't work?
Thats a reasoned approach. Im more in the camp that Trump will lean into the conditions that support growth. Reshoreing of the industrial base is a massive undertaking, that has the potential to tick a lot of required boxes. Fascinatingly Bitcoin may play a role in expanding the bond market in support of the spending required to Reshore. Time will tell.
You're always risking giving it back no matter where your wealth is parked. Sell your bitcoin and they'll slowly drain it from your purchasing power. Even gold, I mean, they could find the world's largest deposit tomorrow and triple the gold supply. You never know.
@ True. There is also tax to consider. For me personally, I’d rather be scaling out of risk assets now as I believe we’re much closer to the top than the bottom, and losing 100k was my line in the sand to take partial profits.
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leselgagul!!
They for sure will turn printers on but not before the stock market dip, only after
Appreciate you keeping things professional and going over liquidity with clarity. No one else I’ve heard is presenting that view.
Enjoy your holiday!
Merry Christmas Camel & Crew! 👼
Happy holidays!
Thank you for being one of the good guys here on YT Merry Christmas to you and the Camel Family
Happy holidays!
Thanks as always for being willing to put it on the line and publish your case. Merry Christmas/Cheers!
Interesting take and TA. We tend to forget about economics outside the states. Very astute to bring it up in eval and TA. Merry Christmas to you are yours
Thanks, Camel. I like your realism.
thank you so much for your reviews camel. have been actively learning and developing my own thesis thanks to your valuable information. Wishing you an amazing christmas with your family.
Thanks, brother! Hope you and your family have a wonderful Christmas and New Year. Unplugging is refreshing. Enjoy!
Same to you!
Thanks for helping us this year. Hope you have a great Chrissy mate.
The Fed Balance sheet has no bearing on "money printing". You are looking at a BALANCE SHEET, that is to say, liabilities against assets, which net out. QT means banks from a composition perspective can actually lend more! We can see a glimpse into our future by looking at total bank credit MoM % change. We are entering a bonanza not a recession.
Lol
I will be looking into this asap. Thank you for the tip. Sounds compelling.
I hit the books on this. I feel like this was missing category for me but I still don't know enough about finance to have everything fit together perfectly. May I ask, which banking composition benifits the most from the QT? I also wonder, do you think the banks have been taking advantage of the FED's inability to determine the different between what is ample vs abundant reserves. Looking into this has me wondering....have the banks figured out a way to control the FED instead of the FED controlling the banks??
Thank you. Enjoy the holidays
Thanks Camel, merry Christmas and thanks for all the invaluable insight this year
Same to you!
Another interesting take so thanks very much Camel! I feel like I've learned a tonne from you this year and am looking forward to continuing to learn in the new year. Hope you have a Merry Christmas 🌲
Awesome, thank you! you too!
Marry Christmas Camel. Get some well deserved rest. I truly hope the markets won’t go to 💩 in the next couple of days so that we can all spend some time with our families. All the best to you and all the folks here.
Thanks - will do! All the best!
Thanks for sharing all your wisdom. Holiday Blessings to you and your family.
Happy holidays!
Can someone tell me what time frame the RSI is on? Every time frame below 6 month candles is above 50?
should be TVC:US30Y/TVC:US02Y with 1M candles. Make sure ur looking at '30y/2y' not '30y-2y'
@christodd2633 thanks Chris! Much appreciated!
What time frame do you use for RSI? Thanks
thank you brother Camel 😁😁🥰
Thank you too
Bro take some time off, you deserve some rest! Although we appreciate the consistent content
@MarketChef420it's not back breaking work, I'm sure he can keep it going.
Please dont listen to him I need your guidance😂
That's his Job bro
@@jakem112 most jobs take pauses at Christmas
I agree. Take some time to relax. We will all be here when you’re back.
Merry Christmas Camel. Looks like no rest for the weary during the holidays.
Thanks Dave - you too!
Lol, they are always printing
Thanks for the update sir! Where do I find that 30y to 2y treasury bond yield chart? Did you create that?
should be 'TVC:US30Y/TVC:US02Y' on trading view, LOG scale + 1M candles
@christodd2633 thanks for the reply, I searched for that on trading view but couldn’t find it. TVC:US30Y comes up typing the whole thing gives no results. I’ll make a ticket on trading view though to see if there’s something else I can do cheers
Thanks for the update video, Camel. Merry Christmas and happy holidays to you and your family.
Happy holidays!
we're going to be alright
this channel is very bearish, gotta have both sides. We need buyers, we need sellers. we need skeptics who sit out.
@@MelatonixGamingyou think he’s bearish?
Thanks Camel! Merry Christmas to you and family!😉
yeah....drone and orb's btw. So it's going to be exciting. Your thoughts?
Thanks camel it really is appreciated have a great christmas and enjoy the family time
Happy holidays!
Merry Christmas to you and your family. Thanks for your continued updates and no nonsense analysis. You’re a shining light amongst the BS. All the best for 2025..! Thank you Camel 🙏🏼
thanks - you too!
Thanks for the years work Camel, will definitely be there next year !! Would love to know an estimate on much gold could go up next year. Rough %age guess ?
Next wave is BIGGER ships. Remember me
Just got off of work and camel uploads a video.
I watch!
Thanks camel. Merry Christmas
Merry Christmas Camel ❤
Never clicked so fast :D Happy holidays to you and your family Camel!
thx for the hard work brother!
Whats the Tesla low you expect
Will we get one more alt season?
I would like to know as well.
have a great x-mas Camel Crew!
you too brother
Haha that first meme 🤣 Bluebeam incoming!!!
I hear you, and you make sense. However, in the current Debt situation, I just don't know how they're going to handle it without QE. 🤔
The debt is nowhere near as dire as you're thinking for the US, the problem is the economic distortions the constant QE causes
@gentronseven please explain why it is nowhere near as dire.
@@relaxbro5605 The dollar is the world reserve currency, what this means in a fiat money system is that there is significant debt owed in dollars around the world in dollars. In fact, more dollars are owed outside the US than inside. The reason there is significant debt owed is it's less risky to transact in dollars because there is so much demand, the dollar is used in every international transaction outside of Russia in the entire world. Every large company owes debts in dollars. Can this breakdown? Sure, in the long run. As long as this demand exists, it's pretty easy for them to issue more debt and quantitatively ease because there is demand for dollars almost no matter what. It's why Europe and China are in major recessions and the US is doing ok for now. I'm not saying the US should be doing this, but it is how the system works and why US debt doesn't really matter - and when it does start to matter it's going to be literally the end of the world as we know it as the entire world economic system breaks down.
oh lets go another video! Thanks for your hard work
Happy holidays mate
Camel do you think the delisting of Tether in EU at 30th of December will affect all the markets negatively?
no I dont think so
Surely if stocks breakdown , btc follows suit ? Rather than look for a new high ?
If only it were that easy 😆
Thanks brother 🤝
Thanks brother 🤝
🐫 Is the only channel you need to watch
Thanks Ser have a lovely jubly xmas
Quick Q, Camel.
Does your cycle PDF cover and frame the mid/shorter term cycles in the context of HTF cycles (e.g. 100 year cycle)?
Have a great 🎄
no it doesn't
Thanks Camel
merry xmas to you and your family.
Thank you, you too
Thanks for your insight Camel! One question I have is on the dxy, less TA more just wondering about the mechanics of it. If the trump administration wants to foster more global trade and generate money through tariffs, then won’t they be hampered by an excessively strong dollar? Disincentivises other countries to export to the US and also hampers their ability to repay USD denominated debt via the eurodollar and other ccy markets running away from them? Happy Christmas!!
@@riceisnice444 interesting! Didn’t even consider the BTC reserve angle too
I wish I understood what you say here. How long before we crash you think? Hours, days, months?
He doesn't know anymore than you do. What you can do is draw the same trendline under the price of the nasdaq on your chart and when it breaks down derisk your position or sell. Draw the next lower trendline, see if that holds as support. If it does then you can buy and hold above that trendline. You can do this with moving averages too and it makes the trendlines for you.
@@gentronseven awesome, thanks for the helpful comment!
Merry Christmas gang!
Hi Camel, 1st in today, just wanted to wish you and your family a safe and joyous Xmas.
Same to you!
Teasing something with that intro...
happy holiday camel
You too!
Great video!
Awesome stuff. Only thing I'd mention is that UK GDP figs and forecast are largely self inflicted. Doesn't mean other nations will follow and be so idiotic about their policies.
don't be so sure
Let's send some more money to Ukraine tho. That's a real winner investment ain't it
Sprinkle some f16's on top while we're at it.
What do you think tesla has much legs left init?
Being confident about an early top in January is currently a high Risk take camel. It is indeed Good that fed is cutting at a slower rate which will ulitmately lead to a soft landing. In respect to the usa dept it should be pretty clear that the Printer has to turn on evantually. With this outcome everything could take us back to normal cycle theory with top in Q4 2025 or even early 2026
Wouldn’t that mean up or sideways for the stock market for almost an entire year? Respectfully, there’s no way this is sustainable with this much trouble for the consumer. The house of cards will fall.
But of course, no one knows shit about fuck and I could be totally wrong here
@ the house of cards should have been fallen a few years ago. Apparently it didn’t
Camal how do you plan to take crypto spot profits, will you DCA out after a certain point or just unload your holdings. It’s my first full cycle and I’m unsure what is the best approach.
Also Merry Christmas champion. I’m very grateful for you and this channel. 🙏🏾
it depends on the setup at the time, but I will notify members in real time as always - I suspect it will be a gradual unwinding over a few days - same as I did for MSTR
Recent follower, alot of respect for you & your way of analysis
a quick question to understand one thing
All say Spx and btc are co-related so if spx is finding its low isnt btc going to correct along with it ? Or you think the money will flow from spx to btc
Happy holidays!
i have my hyperwave third angle for bitcoin at 85k ish early jan when the DCL is in. That's also where the 0.382 retracement from the yen carry trade to 108k is. So 85k the highest probability i think. If bitcoin is really in a hyperwave that would mean 100% increase in 50-60 days left (same increase as third angle, half the time.) So a target of 170k ish.
Does this sound right or am I missing something?
Thanks Camel and Happy Holidays!
that sounds about right to me mate! Cheers and happy holidays !
Legend 👍🏻
likewise 👍🏻
What goes up must come down. Its all part of the balance.
@@CameIfinance十 i have absolutely no clue what you just said mate lol
First. My insomnia thanks you, sir!!
All coming together. Trust the process and you will win with BTC and gold. Alts I am more worried out because the drawdowns make holding negative. Inflation coming.
Thanks cammy boi
Great vid as always bro🙏 You reckon BTC cycle low of $92,280 few days ago could be it or too early still too tell?
Thanks Camel, learnt more from you then i did from my economics degree this year 😂. Wishing you and the family a very Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. 🍾
Do you expect the next daily cycle to be left translated? Happy christmas too! 🎉
on a balance of probabilities, yes, since it is the 4th daily cycle
So the top is in?
in the S&P500, I would say yes
Hello Camel, new member here! Do you think the alt coins are doomed?
most of them yes - but I dont really follow them so I am not really the best person to ask
Printer is out of green ink.
Dear Camel,
It may sound early but do we have a plan, strategy after selling all? I mean bitcoin. We will wait for bear market to go deep? Do you have any plans to short btc? I remember you're planning to open a short position for mstr, yes? still early to short mstr do you think?
one day at a time
Trust me Bro is going to wild 🎢🎢🎢
So there will be another “event”
Moar War!
The reality is, printing is the new norm. Printing is like an addiction, once it's started its very hard to stop. It's like an addict always looking for their next hit. Tell me why they wouldn't print?
Also, look at what China are doing... Huge stimulus packages predicted for 2025. It's a race to see who can devalue their currency the most effectively to improve international competitiveness. In a global fiat backed system, there is no way out of the printing now unfortunately. The curve is going to be exponential until the fiat system as we know it collapses.
The US' DOGE is all smoke and mirrors. It gives people the illusion that Trump plans to fix the debt problem with efficiency improvements. In reality, the debt to GBP ratio is so high that the only way out is through increased printing. What other way out of this do you envisage? We can't simply grow our way out of this problem.
Finally someone who understand they are trying to collapse fiat. 1. To get rid of or lessen debt. 2. We’re going digital for more government control.
@JoeyUnderwater The Great Reset could be the cold turkey quit to the addiction 😰
@jtuneddc5428 I think a lot of people realise this. But Camel finance isn't one of them
LETS GOOOOO AND LETS GOOO AGAIN FOR CHRISTMAS
It's in the cards. Always get a massive crash after a BTC bull run. 2 words. Debt ceiling. my guess is crash start late 2025
Nice one babe . Have a good Xmas xxoo. appreciate the videos. Love you
Cheers unc
I posit that there is a wild card in play: D.O.G.E. The chainsaw to ludicrously inept spending in d.c. on the hill can have a positive effect on the economy as well. Devils advocate, it could also take a 2008 crash effect as well.
Thanks for the analysis. What was with your X post yesterday? Was pretty dark. Too much eggnog?
I am a bit bipolar
edit - I also struggle to maintain balance between ego and soul
That’s fair. We are all going through our own challenges. Try not to let the trolls get to you, or the frustration of the naïveté of us noobs push you to the dark side. Hope you and your family have a great Christmas. 🎄
Printer is coming....
Why would the fed want to bring out qe up here. They want to sell up here. Liquidity will come to buy assets when assets are cheep obvious. Your the goat bro only ine seeing this.
The magnificent 7 and even Walmart are trading well above 30 PE, which means owning one of those stocks literally has worse profit returns than owning a treasury bond. In fact, every top stock is yielding less profit than a 2-30 year treasury bond, the entire index yields less than bonds. And it's not going to grow it's way out - Apple hasn't increased profit significantly in 4 years, every company has just been tweaking the balance sheet to report "good" earnings. (Look at trading view, 6.08 '24 vs 5.7 in '21 EPS - stock has increased 114% REGARDLESS of the 5% increase in profits) Apple is not a growth company, neither is Microsoft, or Amazon. This is the last market bubble they should be treated differently than IBM. This is going to end badly no matter what happens and the "reason" will just be whatever straw finally breaks the market's back.
Camel, sometimes I think you’re the only trading content creator with a brain.
He bought?
Activate H5N1.
Camel you looked at BTC dominance? It looks like it could be heading lower in an ABC correction, everything crossed 😂
Printer is coming. Ned Stark said so.
All it takes is old men around a table confirming QE until then no one really knows the future. Don’t get caught up in the hype or doom. Stay rational and make money 🎉
Ugh 😩
I'm new to investing, and l've lost a good sum trying out strategies I found in online tutorials. I would sincerely appreciate any recommendations you have.
Everything I’m seeing is pointing to a TOP. 🔝 108k might have been our top … ugh 😩
nah for bitcoin not bro
Nah bro it didn't range for 7 months just to enter price discovery for 1 measly month
Lol I can’t believe that people actually think this after consolidating for so long😂
@ I can’t believe ppl think this bull market is just getting started…
Trump has two options: 1. Print at a mild/steady pace or 2. Print at a rapid pace later. I think Trump wants to avoid anything long and destructive, and people respond to cash. Why not Print? A timeline can only slip so much before it's called a new plan.
I do this for a living, and I take your points of view with high regard. I would like to hear your thoughts on why such a prolonged downturn would be accepted by Trump. Are you saying printing won't work?
Thats a reasoned approach. Im more in the camp that Trump will lean into the conditions that support growth. Reshoreing of the industrial base is a massive undertaking, that has the potential to tick a lot of required boxes. Fascinatingly Bitcoin may play a role in expanding the bond market in support of the spending required to Reshore. Time will tell.
Feels like we have been in recession for a long time, no?
Just taken half on my long term BTC stack. Much rather exit early with 4x gains than give it back!
You're always risking giving it back no matter where your wealth is parked. Sell your bitcoin and they'll slowly drain it from your purchasing power. Even gold, I mean, they could find the world's largest deposit tomorrow and triple the gold supply. You never know.
@ True. There is also tax to consider. For me personally, I’d rather be scaling out of risk assets now as I believe we’re much closer to the top than the bottom, and losing 100k was my line in the sand to take partial profits.
Same. Also 4x, also (almost) half. Been selling all the way up since 90k, de facto DCA‘ing out.
Still plenty of BTC left if it moons to 150k+.
🤜🤛
Smart 🎉
Take profits in crypto it's always hard. Good job!