Will the Malacca Strait Hinder China’s Strategy for the 21st Century?
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- Опубліковано 28 вер 2024
- In the intricate tapestry of global geopolitics and maritime strategy, the Malacca Strait stands out as a critical chokepoint, pivotal not only for regional actors but also for major global powers, notably China. The significance of this narrow maritime corridor, which serves as a key conduit for international trade and energy supplies, cannot be overstated. It is against this backdrop that the "Malacca Dilemma" emerges as a central theme in discussions about China's strategic imperatives and its quest for maritime security and economic stability.
To mitigate this strategic vulnerability, China has been exploring a variety of measures. One of the most ambitious proposals is the construction of the Kra Canal in Thailand, which would serve as an alternative maritime route, bypassing the Malacca Strait. The envisioned canal, often dubbed the "Maritime Silk Road of the 21st Century," aims to significantly reduce transit time for shipping and alleviate the strategic pressure on the Malacca Strait. However, the project is fraught with challenges, including substantial financial, environmental, and geopolitical considerations.
In conclusion, the Malacca Dilemma encapsulates the complex interplay of geography, economics, and geopolitics that shapes China's maritime strategy. While the challenges are significant, China's multifaceted approach, encompassing infrastructural projects like the Kra Canal, the Belt and Road Initiative, and strategic military posturing, highlights its determination to secure its maritime interests and navigate the turbulent waters of 21st-century geopolitics.
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China's very smart, they think three steps ahead and leave nothing to chance. They did there homework
...and that's having strategic thinking comes in; unlike my country which is sinking faster & faster...
In fact,being astute seems to be a huge trait in Asian nations...The biggest examples being China and Japan...
Excellent lecture my friend ❤
Thank you, David!!
As Indian..😊🙏🙏🤔Dear David remember one thing Indian and Chinese Ultimate goals are same and china is closer to its goal but not reach yet...🙂🙏 And India is far behind china to reach that goal and I agree...... but Indian and Chinese ways are different 🙂Remember one thing... That day will disaster for USA Foregin policy when India and china settels their border issues if this happens that day is a Big day in geopolitics...🙂🙏but I see this will not happen sooner for various reason..🤔 I see USA is in a self destruction mode By it's policy's I don't know why. 🙏❤️Lot's of love and good wishes from my lovely India 🙏🌹
Spot on and couldn't agree more with your assertion. I truly hope both countries can work out their differences once for all!!
@@geopoliticaltrends 🤗🌹🤗 it's ok.
But you know what will happen if China and India settle their disputes over these Himalayan mountains. India will then have to deal with separatism in Manipur, Nagaland, Kalisthan and lots more. The CIA will start fundings and support. Canada dispute with India is just a veiled warning. In fact Canada is acting on behalf of US
@@nmew6926 what you think are We don't know these kind of things...😄😄 And USA ...We understand🙂🙂
UXA will never allow this settlement to happen
India must respect china s borders historically not the british self drawn borders - that is the problem
In addition to the oil from Russia via its pipeline, China have discovered oil in Xinjiang and in the South China Sea. It will be difficult to choke China with these new discoveries
Spot on.
Thanks for sharing this; many do not know!!
China can choke India's water supply.....
those who live in South East Asia .getting NEWS from China is easy: the above facts are TRUE . these news from CGTN or CCTV are very brief.. that"s why many people didn't notice :😅@@geopoliticaltrends
Not to mention ample supply from its northern neighbor.
Very informative great show, thank you for your time.....from Colorado 😊
You're welcome & much appreciate your continued support!!
China started to tackle to Malacca Strait's choke point at least 10 years ago with the One Belt, One Road mega project in 2013. The formation of the RCEP trade bloc further enhanced cooperation between China and the 10-member ASEAN. Since then, China set up ports in Doraleh (Djibouti), Gwadar (Pakistan), Kyaukphyu (Myanmar), Sihanouk (Kampuchea), Colombo (Sri Lanka) to protect its economic interests. On top of those ports, the deep-water Straits of Sunda and Lombok in Indonesia are also alternatives sea routes to ensure safe passage of its energy lifeline around the Malacca Strait. The gas pipelines from Russia provide security to China's energy needs, not to mention to opening up of the artic sea route in the years ahead.
With the exception of half-witted "Bongbong" Marcos who has been held hostage by his former colonial master over his dad's multi-billion fortune stashed in the U.S. and elsewhere around the world, not a single ASEAN country will be willing to sacrifice their economic interests with China to please the big bully. This is even more factual when the Chinese nation acquires at least 6 aircraft carrier battle groups less than a decade from now, some of which will be nuclear powered.
strategic thinking, I say!!
Icing on the cake for China is to deliver raw materials directly to its interiors instead of hauling them from coastal region. This should help them develop those regions in time to "rival" their coastal provinces.
Great point!!!
Great topic, and I always enjoy your insightful analysis. Assuming a bypass canal actually goes ahead, how do you see Beijing go about securing leasing rights to the canals to ensure changes in administrations, i.e., pro-West or Amboys, will not threaten China's usage of the canal? Are bookend naval bases a bridge too far for Zhongnanhai? A related question is what country will be more stable from right-of-usage perspective, Thailand or Malaysia?
Thanks, Tony! Yeah, great question and China will have it in writing that no matter what, the deal stands...I look at what Marcus Jr. just did... Both countries Thailand & Malaysia would be great for China to embark on this venture with. Each of course, has its own pros & Cons. Thailand, IMO, would be far more Stategic for China...
Thailand is more amenable to Western influence IMO.
In Malaysia, China is helping to build the Huangjing port, expected to be the largest mordernized port in ASEAN.
China-Malaysian joint construction of the Huangjing Port will break the Malacca restrictions. Thus Singapore is in panic mode bcos they sanctioned Russia and leaned towards US. SG financial banking development relies heavily more on US and under pressure to conform to US demands. That's why China focus on Msia to level the playing field.
@@HeresMyView FYI: Will be doing this topic with Carl Zah next time!
@@HeresMyViewLook at a map to understand why your analysis doesn't make sense. The Melaka Gateway is in the Strait of Melaka. Singapore is in the mouth of the Strait of Melaka. Ships will still have pass through Singapore to get to and from the Melaka Gateway.
SG's stance on Russia is a separate issue. Shipping is crucial to SG's economy and China is by far the MAJOR source of traffic for them. Sg will not close their ports to China as that will lead to the country's downfall. The very idea is insane. Sg has always taken a pragmatic stance in international politics. They don't take sides but will do what's best for their country.
I'm thinking Thailand is the weaker link because they have a history of selling out their neighbours for their own gain. (Eg. They helped Imperial Japan invade Malaya.) Rn, there are some pro US factions in Thailand and that's why I think 🇹🇭 is less trustworthy.
Thailan canal is a key like thailand is is the asia
many agree!!
Thanks for the truth
After listening this post cast until I fall asleep, I dream meeting Dr. O in Indonesia, and of course took some pictures together.
Who knows; you never know!!
Yess, let me know if you come to Indonesia, that will be nice have a picture of me drinking coffee with the legend.
I live in Bali Indonesia.
@@alexanderlai5306 Will do!!
Excellent point !
Never keep aples or egs only in one or even two baskets.
good point!!
I finally remembered you at the same time I did a super chat on due dissidence. They now know of you and hopefully their audience will too.
I don't know who are what is stopping BRICS from making public what they are discussing but they seem to be waiting for October. It was Brazil's turn to hold next summit but they just gave it away to Russia just like that? How can there be BRICS currency without Renminbi/yuan? Ok I guess we wait for October. 🤔
Those island are belong to Myanmar. When I'm still in high schools those are belong to Myanmar. India and Myanmar will fight in the future now they weak but when they have strange want to take back.......!!!!!!!!! If India fight them guarantee India will bankruptcy......?????!!!!!!!!
wow, I did not know that. Many thanks for sharing...
Great analysis
Nice work Doc... if US closes malacca strait then china would be in big trouble...thats why china started silk road or one belt one road project... thats why US government is disagree with silk road
If the US closed the Malacca Strait, you expect China to stand still and do nothing? China is not Afghanistan or Iraq. China has the ability to retaliate. China has already built more modern warships than the aging US 7th Fleet and have thousands of hypersonic missiles to knock out the 7th Fleet if they block the Malacca Strait. Their hypersonic missiles based in Qinghai provinces can easily knock out the US 7th Fleet with pinpoint accuracy who are blocking the Malacca Straits. Are you aware that the US is secretly transferring their B52 Bombers based in Guan to northern Australia because the US is afraid of China's deadly hypersonic missiles?
@@kcwong8011
But china doesn't have experience in wars... u think why Russia buying weapons from Iran? Because Iranians have lots of experiences in wars... Iranians have been in war since 80s till now and thats why the weapons they make is very useful .... nobody can win a war with high tech weapons...US lost most of the wars in last decades.... or just look at the izrli weapons and compare it with hamas weapons and we see what happening and how desperate izrliz are... as long as China ,Russia and Iran stay united , nobody can bother them... these 3 countries easily can take down westners today
Hey bro , Philippines back to US did you heard the news right ?
There's another thing china is building vast solar and wind complexes in its desert and there transportation industry is gradually going electric and ramping up nuclear and geothermal energy
meow
As long as there's enough beef rendang to go around, there won't be any choking in the Malacca Strait.
indeed, and I hope so!!
@@geopoliticaltrends You hope so but you don't know what a rendang is.
@@rogerfaint499, I don't think he was referring to the rendang. But rather, the lack of choking.
I don’t think the yankees care much about rendang.
China has a long term plan to reduce reliance on oil as a source of energy. It is building more hydro electric dams, solar and wind farms, nuclear power plants, and clean coal power stations. Its' train system is electric, road vehicles are moving to electric, they have begun to built container ships powered by duel fuels, including a 700 TEU electric powered ship. Finally they are doing oil and gas exploration both inland and in the SCS. In another decade or two, China's importation of oil, will be considerably less critical.
As for trade, China now does more trade with ASEAN countries than it does with the US or Europe. Meaning the ASEAN countries will not fall into the western camp acting against China.
Thanks for sharing your perspective!!Very informative!
Pertinent observation.
Additionally, China has increased the use of its overland railway to Europe significantly to be coupled with the Artic maritime route following its agreement with Russia for access to Vladivostok port.
China's nascent deployment of a thorium reactor appears successful and apparently will be used on a huge container ship, perhaps preparatory to its use on an aircraft carrier. NB. Thorium reactors do not need to be built near the sea and can therefore be disbursed inland.
Meanwhile, consumer switchover to electric vehicles in China is proceeding much faster than anticipated which will in turn reduce consumption of gasoline.
The "Melaka Dilemma" will soon become superfluous.
@@KlKl-k4x, it seems to me like China will eventually decouple from Russia also. The main Russian export is gas and oil. If China is becoming independent of the use of those two commodities then maybe it will not be profitable to stay in BRICS. It looks like their partnership will be mostly strategic.
@@ramplense01"China decouple from Russia..?? Its same as US decouple from EU. This will never happen.😂😅
A miniature nuclear powered innovation is also in progress in China. It is portable, self-contained and will provide power to many rural areas and other countries who face difficulty in power generations. It will change the world.
Kazakstan is most portant peace for next to join BRICS.
Will certainly play a major role!!
The Straits of Malacca is more critical to South Korea and Japan than China. Also huge amount of China/US trade pass through the Straits of Malacca. Also the the Straits of Malacca is straddled by two powerful predominantly Muslim nations. So there is no way the US military can impose its will on this so called "choke point"
Thailand canal also safe time = cost
some agree!!
I think it's a mistake.
More likely Thailand afraid of their south separatist to take advantage of that canal.
@@syafiqsya465 Good point!
Mallaca strait belongs to Indonesia Malaysia and Singapore not USA china or India correction Thailand building land bridge not new canal that's too expensive
Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore wanted to stay neutral, and the Malacca Straits is for world trade, peace, and shared prosperity.
and no one said that China owns Malacca Strait...
Yeah but of these 3 countries there are only 2 which threatened to block the Malacca Strait.
@@nmew6926.. Which two?
China won't want to block because trade passes through the straits to and from China. The only country trying to disrupt this trade is the US and it's lackey, Australia - a white colonial settlement in a coloured part of the Asian world. 😂😂😂😂
Well this Strait has always been in China's back yard and off course they will continue to use it and i don't see why not!
Good point!!
The Strait of Malacca is a vital conduit for Chinese trade to Africa, Europe (via Suez Canal) and the Middle East and China will not allow it to be blockaded.
Any attempt to do so is a declaration of war and there is no questions on this.
Meanwhile China is seeking alternative routes such as the land route through Central Asia and the North East passage through the North Pole.
China is progressively building up it's naval power to ensure "freedom of navigation" through the Malacca Strait, with the help of USA of course.
for sure and much appreciate you sharing your perspective!
In my opinion, I don't think the US would be prepared to enforce the closing of the Malacca Strait to China as that would mean war. China has already prepared for this eventuality.
In my opinion, the Indian has a strategic trump card that can be cashed in for enormous favor from China. However, should the Indian were to use it against the Chinese, it might be the biggest mistake(s) since post colonial independence. Like Mr Putin said in Tucker C interview, “one can’t choose cousin, just like neighbors. It’s something you have to live with”. India has to live with consequences of her actions.
Yes, it 'll be a big mistake, but you know how much the US can pressure India!!
The Two Ancient civilizations are not that stupid, they know how to work things out. They are both for mankind.
@@AbaGatan but india was never a united entity like China was
@@Carbuncle0168Both india and china existed in different dynasties and empires. Just like india which had empires like rajputs, guptas, Mughals, Rajputs, Delhi sultanate same way china had qing, tang, Ming and other empires. But unlike china which was united under a single empire only for one time that is under qing empire, India was united twice under Mauryan empire and Mughal empire. Difference is that India was captured by British while China wasn't captured by British rather been a vassal State
@@Carbuncle0168who gave you this goofy idea? India has been united at least 3 or 4 times through history. Clueless
Hello from West Memphis, Arkansas
Hello!!
There is sting of pearls and sting of diamond which both countries encircle each countries
My friend David China ,my country malaysia ,asean countries,Africa ,Latin and Russia countries have rare minerals in larger numbers and they already aim by west and it's some allies such as Philippines ,Japan ,south Korea ,Singapore ,India and etc beyond.
Peacefully harmony with all countries is the only good way for west
China is in the process of testing its molten thorium reactors using thorium as nuclear fuel and is the first country in the world to have achieved this feat. If this test turns out to be successful, China will use this method for generating its own nuclear energy / electricity on a massive scale. China and India have inhouse resources of thorium unlike uranium fuel which needs to be imported, but, India is still in advanced stage of mastering the technology in using thorium. Both these countries also have abundant resources of coal for generating electricity and China has the advantage globally when it comes to electric vehicles. All this proves that in the years to come, China will reduce its dependence upon oil considerably causing loss of revenue to the oil exporting countries and that is why Saudi is diversifying from its dependence on oil (Neom Project of Saudi Arabia)
The artic route is another branch
for sure!!
👏👏👏👏👍
Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia have suffered greatly under the West during their colonial rule. There is no way they will allow the West or India to shut down the Malacca Straits.
many agree!!
soon will be history.