Jen's 50/50 chance on the spearmen twice is a 75% chance. For the first die, 3 out of 6 rolls is a success. Then for the 3 failures, each of those is 50/50 when re-rolled. Out of the 36 possible combinations: Die 1 Success = 18/36 rolls; Die 1 Fail, Die 2 Success 50/50 = half that, or 9/36. Total = 27/36. 75%
I got this KS with expansions and came here to learn. I gotta say the frustration in the missed rolls (while stinks for you) was hilarious. I would expect people to giggle at my misfortune if I did it 😄
That was gloriously LOL how that 2nd round pained you so... even though you were playing on your own.. I can def imagine that happening to me during a live game. Oh the cussing...
7:35 Not quite... Probability of rolling a success on one of the two rolls: P(Success on 1st roll) + P(Success on 2nd roll) - P(Success on 1st AND 2nd rolls) Let me break it down: P(Success on 1st roll) = 1/2 [Obvious: 50%-50% chance of rolling a success on any given roll] P(Success on 2nd roll) = P(Success on 2nd AND Success on 1st rolls) + P(Success on 2nd AND NOT Success [or Failure] on 1st roll) = P(Success on 2nd roll GIVEN Success on 1st roll) × P(Success on 1st roll) + P(Success on 2nd roll GIVEN Failure on 1st roll) × P(Failure on 1st roll) P(Success on 2nd roll GIVEN Success on 1st roll) = 0 [because given that you had a success on the 1st roll, you would not roll a 2nd time] P(Success on 1st roll) = 1/2 P(Success on 2nd roll GIVEN Failure on 1st roll) = 1/2 [Still a 50%-50% chance of rolling a success on the 2nd roll, given that the 1st roll was a failure... the result of the 1st roll is irrelevant because the die does not have any memory] P(Failure on 1st roll) = 1/2 Therefore, P(Success on 2nd roll) = 0 × (1/2) + (1/2) × (1/2) = 0 + (1/4) = 1/4 P(Success on BOTH 1st AND 2nd rolls) = 0 [As discussed before, if the 1st roll is a success, there will be no 2nd roll, therefore it would be impossible to have successes on both rolls given this condition] Bringing it all together: P(Success on 1st roll) + P(Success on 2nd roll) - P(Success on BOTH 1st AND 2nd rolls) = 1/2 + 1/4 - 0 = 3/4 = 75% Alternatively, there is a faster, shortcut way to get this result: 1 - (1/2)^2 = 1 - 1/4 = 3/4 = 75% Probability of getting 1 success in 2 rolls of the die - literally the probability of subtracting out [from a full probability of 1 (or 100%)] the probability of getting 2 failure die rolls - that is one on the 1st roll and the other on the 2nd roll. What you have left after this subtraction is the probability of (at least) 1 success in 2 rolls of the die.
This video had me very worried about the luck factor of the game, but I picked it up anyway. Yeah, op just played super recklessly. Luck actually adds to this game, fits the theme, and makes it more fun. You know those Vikings you sent are going to die in battle, so you rejoice when they return!
Dont worry about the "luck" factor of the game. I play a LOT of games using dice - the creator of the video made a classic blunder....they either counted on good or at least average luck...and dice rolls are based upon odds...the more dice you use, you can mitigate your luck. More warriors should have been used against the Hrimthous (sp) as he was worth 10 fame, and a horn. anyway, good game.
Are you *sure* a single Viking sent to battle isn't protected by a Shield, if the enemy has an attack of > 1? The rules simply say "negate the loss of one Viking for every shield rolled"...which in this case you would otherwise lose only one Viking. :P EDIT: Josh of Grey Fox confirmed Rahdo is correct :)
Hello, thanks for your effort with all these videos. Very good channel. Never played this one but trying to understand how it feels during gameplay. Now what I realized in 9:12 ; I think the combination of combat mechanic and a 1HP/3D Troll is broken and an example of bad game design. Why; Scenario 1- Lets say you attack with only one spear man, just as you did; you have; ***50% chance of success in first roll ***100% chance that one viking is dead, no more or less ( Even if you kill or not) Scenario 2- But if you attack with 2 or more vikings, lets say 2; ***75% chance of success in first roll ( only 25% increased chance compared to one viking) ***100% chance that "two" vikings will die, no more or less (Even if you kill or not). Because even if you roll two shields in first roll, that will result 0 hits to troll but 1 dead viking. Which will leave you with only one viking and full HP troll;same as the first scenario ( Attacking with one viking). If you manage to roll one hit and one shield, you will kill the troll but you will get (3-1) damage whşch will kill again those two vikings. Scenario 3- And if you attack with 3 or more vikings, lets say 3; ***87,5% chance of success in first roll ( 37,5 % increased chance compared to one attacking viking, not bad. But .....) ***5% one viking will die --> 33% two vikings will die --> 65% three vikings will die ( I guess the math is correct but not exactly sure :) ) If I am not making a big mistake, and not wrong about these rules; 1-During combat, only fighting vikings die even if the damage taken is more than the vikings in the fight 2-Combat keeps going until either the troll or all vikings in combat die then the only logic way of attacking a 1HP/3D troll is just one viking. Not more. Which for me a flaw in the game as it does not give you the chance to chose among multiple good options. Of course in board games, during the progress of the game, there will be some times where there will be only one good/logic action due to the previous actions taken by the player and the opponents. But for me, only one logic action just out of the box means poor game design. Please let me know what you think. PS: All these are valid assuming there are no other special power that changes the chances.
Red/Green colourblindness is the most common version. Having red food & brown lumber is a very silly choice. I wish publishers did colourblind testing.
+Marcus Boyce it's so weird, because they 'fixed' the color blindness issue for the monsters in the reprint by adding symbols, but they didn't do anything about the cube colors. cee-razy! :)
+rahdo pink might have been a little too funny. It would look like the Vikings were bringing cotton candy or pepto bismal across the sea to fight the legendary Norse monsters haha.
Another potentially good game being ruined by dice. If I was playing this and had Rhado's rolls, I would've flipped the table, punched the guy that suggested this game, throw it in the bin, and never play it again. Thank god I researched the game first.
That dice-spin fail, following the first roll failure, was like a Greek tragedy unfolding before my eyes. ;)
"50% plus 50% means 100% surely"
I can't wait to register for Rahdo's Statistics in Boardgames course. Pass/fail, right?
And don't call me Shirley.
Jen's 50/50 chance on the spearmen twice is a 75% chance. For the first die, 3 out of 6 rolls is a success. Then for the 3 failures, each of those is 50/50 when re-rolled. Out of the 36 possible combinations: Die 1 Success = 18/36 rolls; Die 1 Fail, Die 2 Success 50/50 = half that, or 9/36. Total = 27/36. 75%
27:41 when the current starting player uses the jarl longhouse they must pass the starting player token left
Your chance calculation always boggles my mind, hahaha
I got this KS with expansions and came here to learn. I gotta say the frustration in the missed rolls (while stinks for you) was hilarious. I would expect people to giggle at my misfortune if I did it 😄
Dice can be brutal sometimes. Nice video!
That was gloriously LOL how that 2nd round pained you so... even though you were playing on your own.. I can def imagine that happening to me during a live game. Oh the cussing...
7:35 Not quite...
Probability of rolling a success on one of the two rolls:
P(Success on 1st roll) + P(Success on 2nd roll) - P(Success on 1st AND 2nd rolls)
Let me break it down:
P(Success on 1st roll) = 1/2 [Obvious: 50%-50% chance of rolling a success on any given roll]
P(Success on 2nd roll)
= P(Success on 2nd AND Success on 1st rolls) + P(Success on 2nd AND NOT Success [or Failure] on 1st roll)
= P(Success on 2nd roll GIVEN Success on 1st roll) × P(Success on 1st roll) + P(Success on 2nd roll GIVEN Failure on 1st roll) × P(Failure on 1st roll)
P(Success on 2nd roll GIVEN Success on 1st roll) = 0 [because given that you had a success on the 1st roll, you would not roll a 2nd time]
P(Success on 1st roll) = 1/2
P(Success on 2nd roll GIVEN Failure on 1st roll) = 1/2 [Still a 50%-50% chance of rolling a success on the 2nd roll, given that the 1st roll was a failure... the result of the 1st roll is irrelevant because the die does not have any memory]
P(Failure on 1st roll) = 1/2
Therefore,
P(Success on 2nd roll) = 0 × (1/2) + (1/2) × (1/2) = 0 + (1/4) = 1/4
P(Success on BOTH 1st AND 2nd rolls) = 0 [As discussed before, if the 1st roll is a success, there will be no 2nd roll, therefore it would be impossible to have successes on both rolls given this condition]
Bringing it all together:
P(Success on 1st roll) + P(Success on 2nd roll) - P(Success on BOTH 1st AND 2nd rolls)
= 1/2 + 1/4 - 0 = 3/4 = 75%
Alternatively, there is a faster, shortcut way to get this result:
1 - (1/2)^2 = 1 - 1/4 = 3/4 = 75%
Probability of getting 1 success in 2 rolls of the die - literally the probability of subtracting out [from a full probability of 1 (or 100%)] the probability of getting 2 failure die rolls - that is one on the 1st roll and the other on the 2nd roll. What you have left after this subtraction is the probability of (at least) 1 success in 2 rolls of the die.
Wow! Jen's really good at this game! :D
Newer subscriber here, love the videos!! Just noticed you forgot to go hunting in the third round though! :)
+Alex Guard it was already noted... thank you :)
This video had me very worried about the luck factor of the game, but I picked it up anyway. Yeah, op just played super recklessly. Luck actually adds to this game, fits the theme, and makes it more fun. You know those Vikings you sent are going to die in battle, so you rejoice when they return!
Dont worry about the "luck" factor of the game. I play a LOT of games using dice - the creator of the video made a classic blunder....they either counted on good or at least average luck...and dice rolls are based upon odds...the more dice you use, you can mitigate your luck. More warriors should have been used against the Hrimthous (sp) as he was worth 10 fame, and a horn. anyway, good game.
Are you *sure* a single Viking sent to battle isn't protected by a Shield, if the enemy has an attack of > 1? The rules simply say "negate the loss of one Viking for every shield rolled"...which in this case you would otherwise lose only one Viking. :P
EDIT: Josh of Grey Fox confirmed Rahdo is correct :)
13:18 It's Rahdo :))
Why does the large public boat have a capacity of ten if you can only have eight warriors? Did I miss something?
+bigtimebam those slots are filled by warriors (dice) and food to feed them (cubes)
+rahdo ahh, gotcha. Didn't realise the food took up space. Thanks for the reply.
Hello, thanks for your effort with all these videos. Very good channel. Never played this one but trying to understand how it feels during gameplay. Now what I realized in 9:12 ; I think the combination of combat mechanic and a 1HP/3D Troll is broken and an example of bad game design. Why;
Scenario 1- Lets say you attack with only one spear man, just as you did; you have;
***50% chance of success in first roll
***100% chance that one viking is dead, no more or less ( Even if you kill or not)
Scenario 2- But if you attack with 2 or more vikings, lets say 2;
***75% chance of success in first roll ( only 25% increased chance compared to one viking)
***100% chance that "two" vikings will die, no more or less (Even if you kill or not). Because even if you roll two shields in first roll, that will result 0 hits to troll but 1 dead viking. Which will leave you with only one viking and full HP troll;same as the first scenario ( Attacking with one viking). If you manage to roll one hit and one shield, you will kill the troll but you will get (3-1) damage whşch will kill again those two vikings.
Scenario 3- And if you attack with 3 or more vikings, lets say 3;
***87,5% chance of success in first roll ( 37,5 % increased chance compared to one attacking viking, not bad. But .....)
***5% one viking will die --> 33% two vikings will die --> 65% three vikings will die ( I guess the math is correct but not exactly sure :) )
If I am not making a big mistake, and not wrong about these rules;
1-During combat, only fighting vikings die even if the damage taken is more than the vikings in the fight
2-Combat keeps going until either the troll or all vikings in combat die
then the only logic way of attacking a 1HP/3D troll is just one viking. Not more. Which for me a flaw in the game as it does not give you the chance to chose among multiple good options. Of course in board games, during the progress of the game, there will be some times where there will be only one good/logic action due to the previous actions taken by the player and the opponents. But for me, only one logic action just out of the box means poor game design. Please let me know what you think.
PS: All these are valid assuming there are no other special power that changes the chances.
Red/Green colourblindness is the most common version. Having red food & brown lumber is a very silly choice. I wish publishers did colourblind testing.
+Marcus Boyce it's so weird, because they 'fixed' the color blindness issue for the monsters in the reprint by adding symbols, but they didn't do anything about the cube colors. cee-razy! :)
50% followe by 50% is not 100% chance. :)
His wife beats him even when he plays his runthroughs haha
Too bad there isn't a local that lets you pilfer Jen's stuff (when she's not looking of course). Hehehe...
13:21 haha oooouggghhooowww
They should have made custom lumber tokens like imperial settlers has.
+Atlas Films i would have settled for pink food cubes instead of reddish brown :)
+rahdo pink might have been a little too funny. It would look like the Vikings were bringing cotton candy or pepto bismal across the sea to fight the legendary Norse monsters haha.
+Atlas Films i was thinking more 'raw meat' pink :)
Another potentially good game being ruined by dice. If I was playing this and had Rhado's rolls, I would've flipped the table, punched the guy that suggested this game, throw it in the bin, and never play it again. Thank god I researched the game first.