Misconceptions Footnote †: Randomness and Feedback
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- Опубліковано 16 сер 2017
- Footnote to the main video here: • Correlation CAN Imply ...
Feedback loops and spurious correlations!
REFERENCES:
Spurious correlations: www.tylervigen.com/spurious-co...
Loopy by Nicky Case: ncase.me/loopy/
CERN/CMS paper on di-photon excess: cds.cern.ch/record/2139899
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Minute Physics provides an energetic and entertaining view of old and new problems in physics -- all in a minute!
Created by Henry Reich - Наука та технологія
The average global temperature is inversely correlated with the number of pirates.
We need more pirates to help fight global warming!
I didn't see it on this video when posting.
It's a joke about drawing ridiculous conclusions from correlations. I don't know where it originated, but it was popularized by The Gospel of the Flying Spaghetti Monster which, among other things, encourages piracy (the seafaring kind, not digital) and in general pokes fun at religion.
MrSplodgeySplodge Inversely I believe would be the correct term.
Perfect example of confounding factors. Historical factors and progress led to the end of the age of piracy, which caused a decrease in pirates, while also starting the industrial revolution, which increased the production of greenhouse gases, which led to global warming.
@@KnakuanaRka so evolution and global warming are positively correlated?
@@Real_KYN How does evolution factor into what I said?
"Spiraly helix thing"
MyyMeli its the best!
spiraly helix is best helix
Spiraly helix things are my favorite kind of things.
A footnote coming after the video?
What a coincidence
It's more of a chain.
*puts on sunglasses*
A Markov chain.
YEEEEAAAAAAAAHH
Glad to see Spurious Correlations mentioned. It's one of my favorite websites to introduce to people.
Any kind of loop given time is a spiral. I use loops in coding, for, while, etc and they are loops but considering there is time taken between each loop they are spirals but there not it is called a for loop and a while loop because it loops. More grass, More sheep, Less grass, Less sheep, More grass. Its a loop in principle. Spiral in time.
Minute physics, ted-ed, asap science, all uploading video at same time. My day will now pass well.
Cherry picking is a huge problem. We pretty much never see the entire statistics behind a claim. Can I really trust somebody on the news (or in a forum, or in Facebook, etc) when they say "some scientist discovered XYZ is true"? Well, not really. The methodology and statistical data almost always requires a lot of effort to find. That's also why you often find claims that seem to contradict each other - because cherry picking data definitely allows you to make claims that are contradictory to reality.
logicalfundy my math teacher always said: "there is 3 kind of lies:
Big lies, Small lies and statistics."
logicalfundy it's usually pretty easy to get published data as well as the methodology behind the analysis. The methodology is published with the paper and the data is normally available either on request from the author or on the university website.
marcel:
The term was popularised in United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.".
Okay, but you don't get to throw all evidence out the window and believe what you want just because statistics is hard. If you think the sample isn't representative or that the causal inference is weak, you have to say why before throwing out a well-established study.
Elliott Collins Part of the problem is figuring out whether a study is well established.
One of your best illustrations Henry. Great example which is just abstract enough to focus the user's attention on the concept, while remaining simple enough to be easily understood. Truly impressive!
Ooh, cool to see Nicky Case's Loopy being used in a video like this. I really like his explorable explanations.
SCIENCE +STATISTICS = WONDERS
I love how he goes on in all his science-talk with complex terms, and then right at the end says "spiral-y helix thing" instead of just "helix"... :D
When physicists have no idea what they are talking about
*"which we should draw as some sort of spirally helix thing"*
Wibbly-wobbly timey-wimey.
I appreciate your efforts to make physics interesting,
Thanks minute physics team
Now I'm intrigued and hope you'll make a video on feedback loops...
0:13 people dead from becoming tangled in bed sheets by cheese consumed
IF you think about it, there is actually a loop between the grass and the sheep, more sheep means more fertiliser as faecal matter (poop), meaning more grass due to higher nutrition in the soil such as nitrogen, and thus more sheep and this even more grass, in till the limit of the grass growth is reached.
Just an observations, otherwise great second video :)
We need more of your videos
Brilliant video!
Feedback loops are found in physiology and are very necessary in living beings. For example, hunger. In a combination of hypothalamus, pituitary gland, liver, intestines, nerve responses from intestines and the rest of the alimentary canal, and more, less food triggers a hunger sensation which triggers eating, triggers sensations of enjoyment, triggers's sensations of fullness, triggers feeling of satiation in hypothalamus, triggers shutdown of pituitary gland and digestion process, and many other subtle processes after satiety, and the emptiness after all these internal processes and the use of materials incoming, and then robbing other parts of the body for imminent process triggers the whole hunger process again.
Part of the machinery that makes it a feedback loop is that it is a relatively closed environment, and it is highly regulated within a living body.
Love your vid. Although I wish it was "5minutephysics" instead.
andyt1313 The general name "minutephysics" implies a theoretical range of videos from 1to 10 minutes or more!
The channel name minutephysics is always accurate, provided the video length is measured with few enough significant digits.
I really like your interpretation of feedback loops as simply helixes projected onto a plane by suppressing the "sequence of events" data
YES! I am a firm advocate for the causality spiral helix thing!
Surely all causative relationships play out over time (in classical physics anyway)? Why is this drawn as a point of distinction between loops and other causal relationships?
Oh my God that explains why there was no recycle ♻️ logo thing in the earlier video about the island cat and height. I was looking for ages 😂
Got got super scientific at the end "Some sort of spirally helix thing". lol
I think the most accurate term to use is "WHEEEEEEE!!!".
What type of math is this?? Sounds so cool, I want to learn it
João Vítor Costa Statistics. It is really beautiful.
It's called "causal modelling", a newly invented and quite revolutionary field of statistics. So new indeed that most statistics textbooks probably don't cover it! There are two standard books (but not exactly text books) on the subject: "Causality" by Judea Pearl and "Causation, Prediction and Search" by Peter Spirtes, Clark Glymour, and Richard Scheines. An introduction (somewhat focussed on philosophical implications) can be found online in the Standford Ecyclopedia of Philosophy article "Causal Models".
Well, I must say that the Lotka-Volterra system as well as other population dynamics systems, and non-linear systems of differential equations do each deserve their own videos...
This footnote was also as amzing as the other one! Great job oh i just imagne what a minute earth with minute physics colabortaaion would look like or maybe the science superpwers all in one video
Kursgerzagt, CGP Grey, minute earth, minute physics, vox, vsauce, and its okay to be smarter etc. That would be an awesome 1-3 hour long video explaining a really interesting and complex thing like what E=MC^2 truly and what t completely means
But alas such video is almost an impossibility
It's like the Ravenclaw riddle: What came first, the phoenix or the fire? Answer: A circle has no beginning.
Every time I wash my car, it rains. Correlation doesn't necessitate causation
"feedback loop"
"feedback spirally helix thing"
...im gonna stick with the feedback loop
Misconceptions Footnote †: Randomness and Feedback
I think "Feedback Helix" is way more catchy than just loop.
me after every minutephysics video: starring at screen even though the video ended about 5 minutes ago...
Oh no this is amazing
Feedback loops? Oh you mean infinite whirly feedback springs
My god you're good at drawing spirals
Fraser O'Rourke I don't hope he gets any better at it, that could really spiral out of control.
The footnotes are more of a MinutePhysics video than the main ones.
in electrics we displayed feedback as an increasing amplitude sinus, wouldnt that be a good way of displaying feedback? have two sinus curves together?
Nice. I love that correlation website. Did you know, the relationship between Nicolas Cage films and people drowning "accidentally"? Coincidence? Don't think so... :P
I was expecting a "When [they] die, [they] become the grass, and they eat the grass" reference.
whoo, ncase!
I love your videos! But is it possible that you could speak a bit more slowly? I find it a bit difficult to keep up with the animations on screen and the info you deliver with the voiceover.
If your browser allows it, you should be able to adjust the playback speed in the player options. x0.75 should be good, I guess. Doesn't sound pretty, but it should help. =)
It is called >Minute
You should do a video about Perlin noise.
What would then be an example of a feedbackloop that doesnt run overtime. I understand that with the sheep grass example the time frame is quite big, but nothing happens instantaneously right?
is it possible for a feedback loop to occur where one entity in the relationship is the cause of another entity earlier in time? can causality follow space-like paths?
AAAWWW MAN! Bring on the ODEs!
ok .. anything that ends with the words 'spirally helix thing' ... is, officially, the best thing in the world!! Just saying
How do you know when you've collected enough data to rule out random association?
Wizmut There are statistical tests, depending on the type of data involved. ‘Enough’ is a non relevant concept in statistics.
Its not a loop, its a spirally helix thing. Got it.
Two vids in a minute? Damn
There seems to be a feedback loop in the visual matrix processor.
Or it just equals out over several generations until their are exactly enough sheep to eat exactly enough grass etc. so it ends up as an ordinary cycle.
Feedback loops spiral out of control.
Is it really that common to get tangled in bedsheets and die? That makes me afraid to go to sleep.
That is prolly more dangerous if your bed sheets are torn or other anomalies.
I want the song in the background
How can I find it?
Bradford Hill criteria are needed in this.
I have a question about Schrödinger's cat, wouldn't an electron actually be a observer?
I don't think the reason you gave here for not including feedback loops in the other video is very clear..
You basically just said: "because it's not a loop, it's a chain" So?
I think a better one is because they were irrelevant to the other vid.
Still very interesting footnotes tho :]
You should have put this in your previous video.
Woah this is also a patreon
how about a video on "why is the other side of my pillow cold "?"
I'm gonna start calling them "feedback spiraly-helix-things" from now on.
I've always heard that saying, but I haven't really understood it.
So how do you know when the sample size is big enough? Does that just mean that Correlation CAN'T imply causation because there's always a chance that the sample size wasn't big enough?
HeyJD You do statistical power calculations. This tells you what sample size is required for a given confidence level.
dear minutephysics crew
i kinda need your help on a subject regarding science.
but i fail to find your email adress anywhere.
i would really apriciate it if you could help me out
In other words, the Law of Large Numbers and the arrow of time are both things :D
YES SPIRALY HELIX THING
I guess Number phile did a video on this ... only there they used a unique formula to calculate growth
Hey emm when I was watching Stevan universe I saw this ep it all the water in the world in a shape of a tower a really big one what would happened if that was in real life and if your doing your amazing
And then it will be like water
DNA is also a spirally helix thing isn't it?
mmh love this channel. Frankly after knowing how good this channel is minute earth is just garbage.
So . . sheep and grass all the way up?
Wait what am I doing its 2:30 a.m. and I have a tournament that I have to today
theoretically if you flipped 2 coins an infinite amount of times wouldn't there be a stretch where they were correlated an infinite amount of times?
JoshDoesEverything yes
JoshDoesEverything replace the second "infinite" with "arbitrarily many" and this is true.
You say we should draw the sheep/grass correlation as a helix instead of as a loop, but isn't that just a matter of perspective?
No, because the loop doesn't draw time as a dimension. A loop would imply that grass of the future would influence grass of the past.
Just look at the helix top-down.
It's called a helliciod
First time I am really interested in a sponsor. Brilliant.org is not cheap though...
There are no causes only concomittence. If particle A hits particule B and they go their opposite direction. Was A the cause of B's change or B the cause of A's change ? Both, neither.
A and B changed due to an interaction between both. Take away A, B, or their interaction, and everything stays the same.
If you don't draw the relationship between sheep and grass as a spiraly helix thing, you probably have no idea what you are talking about. 👌
Who heard of The Zipf mystery?
What's a... sk-sky-unce? (Science)
Ok, so an island with lots of cats and grass will make sheep taller and increase tall people population then what??
Nice video.
I am commenting #BringBackDislikes on every unique UA-cam video that I watch for the rest of 2024, regardless of if I actually dislike the video or not. This is video 818.
I'm so early that the number of dislikes is a 1 digit number
same
Boorider7 And the no. of likes didn't cross a 1000
I don't believe you, it's at 9 now so it couldn't have been a 1 digit number 23 minutes ago
Dylan Cope 9 is a one digit number if you know what digits or numbers are
Dylan Cope it's physically impossible to be more stupid than this. HOW DID YOU EVEN GET TO THIS CONCLUSION??? THIS MAKES NO SENSE WTF
hey, ¿It is possible to create a Black Hole with Dark Matter?
Scientists have genetically modified different animals and plants, some are cloning and some are combined cloning.
Do you think it s possible for scientists to genetically modify unicorns and fire breathing dragons?
Sheep All the Way Up
0:47 Am i the only one seeing a smiley face? :D
A⤻B
11Lauva wow I see it not
Pareidolia?
You might be propense to superstition, correlation says.
11Lauva i cant see it ;-;
Cherry picking statistical data to prove or disprove something is a huge problem. I hate when climate change deniers use this as a method of presenting "proof" that climate change isn't real while the scientific community as a whole recognizes that climate change is real and uses all available data to base an argument for it's existence and somehow still gets shut down. Statistical misrepresentation irks me.
minute DONGS, thing you can do online now guys
things you can do with dong online now
Neat
Indeed
SUP
I'm so early that the main video and the footnote have the same amount of comments. Or is that late? I don't know
hi
wow
This doesn't deserve to be top comment. I was expecting a witty joke.
your first
i love this comment so relatable
sup dude
Wow. That spirally helix thing is based on Tim Maudlin's temporal geometry stuff isn't it?
Why did them delete the video that uploaded yesterday?
I always come here in the first minutes watching footnote because i'm sure this is a henry only video that can only be accessed through a link or will be removed later on. Like Even if this video upload was an error, i still wanna watch it because it's a minute physic video.
Because at the beginning of notification squad, I once got a notification for a private video because youtube made an error. So only like 100 person saw it.