Machine learning for algorithmic trading w/ Bert Mouler
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- Опубліковано 4 кві 2016
- EP 042: Harnessing the power of machine learning for money making algo strategies w/ Bert Mouler
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As usual this is a great interview. Bert was tired, but nevertheless knows his craft and divulged several nuggets of wisdom. His ambition is to make a billion dollars. No that is what i call a goal!
My favourite chatwithtraders interview. @BertMouler is a legend!
This is perhaps one of the best interviews you've done, Aaron. Bert is the real whole-brain thinker. If you listen, take notes, and research online the things he stated, it brings real insight to trading. Fantastic! Now off to his second interview in EP 142...
I am quite surprised by negative comments. The guy knows what he is talking about, if he does not want to dive into math details, does not mean his ideas are wrong. You want to learn deeper about ML, learn calculus, algebra, probability theory, then ML will be a piece of cake. If you listen carefully he gave you soo much information, how to trade and what markers to look for. Give him some respect.
hahaha you are right. people think ML is a single topic when it actually is composed of many sub disciplines. the prerequisite for ML will probably take longer than than the actual ML itself
Love that he hit on the beauty of monte-carlo/sampling techniques
Very insightful. No idea why so many negative comments. I learned quite a bit in this interview.
Does anyone know what "machine learning algo" Bert is using to plug this info/data in?
absolutely loved it!! His example on area of circle is super.....thanks +Chat With Traders!!
+Ritam Roy Chowdhury, awesome! Thanks for taking the time to listen.
I'm so glad I came across your channel... immediately subscribed to your podcast on iTunes.
+B1ack, I appreciate the kind words! If you get the chance, an iTunes review would be super helpful, thanks.
I love Chat w/ Traders. Only suggestion would be to try and get into conversation after interesting answers. It seems most of the time you ask-they answer-and then you ask something new. I know it's an impossible standard to live up to, but in Market Wizards notice how Jack Schwager oftentimes makes a whole conversation based around the subjects answers. Maybe a pre-interview would facilitate you being able to do this. Nonetheless you do a great job and get some awesome subjects on here, keep it up.
+William Wise thanks for your feedback William.
I agree, all I hear in the interviews from Aaron is, "yeah. that's good" "that's an interesting thought" "oh wow" "sure sure" . . .but no follow up questions. Sounds like you have a preset of questions you want to ask, but you should only use them if the conversation goes stale. . . that said, I really like all the podcasts!
As an engineer, I really appreciate your characterization of Integration techniques...
@BertMouler, good luck with your goals! They are great!
I cant wait to see 4 digit episodes man. I am consuming 1-2 episodes everyday already, makes approximately 10 episodes a week. I am slowly catching up with you lol
Hi there, I just want ask can one person write a profitable code??, since lot of companies are hiring lots of data scientists just to discover machine learning trading strategies. I want go alone since I have no people to start with
Hey, beautiful mind, congrats! Never forget to give back
Amazing Episode!! It love hearing how algorithmic traders do their work, plus Bert is a really inspiring guy!
+WilliamFiset awesome to hear you liked this interview with Bert. I noticed you're heavily involved in programming, ever ventured into algorithmic trading yourself?
+Chat With Traders I'm new to the field of trading so I have never developed my own trading algorithm before, but it is something I am capable of and really want to try out in the near future. I was looking for somewhere to start and I stumbled upon your channel and the content is really rich and fruitful. I'm going through your videos now and I'm loving the content!
+WilliamFiset good stuff, you definitely have the right background for it. I've been teaching myself Python for the same reasons. Just so you know, there are more interviews available here (chatwithtraders.com/podcast-episodes/) which are not yet on UA-cam - quite a few algo/quant traders in the mix too.
this type of knowledge keeps motivating and helps me to learn more and more :)
+jeet kothari, really great to hear!
I like this ..
I think I get what to do .
This guy was a Triple Major in ungrad. Bruh...
Interesting. Thanks
So relived to learn that my brain is still able to out preform the computer algorithms because I have no idea about programming or how to set up machine learning. I had been imagining that my set ups are failing because the computers see my trades and beat me out of them, but Bert seems to believe we humans can figure things out on our own.
+Bev Renee' - thanks for listening. You might also enjoy this interview I did with Rishi Narang (chatwithtraders.com/ep-054-rishi-narang/), he speaks about when computers have an advantage over humans and vice-versa-in a trading scenario.
32:20 if it works and you don't know why it doesn't make it bad it makes it dangerous in my opinion especially myself as a robotics engineer control is everything.... this is why we have crashes however I do love his style and I am developing something of my own
Regarding 30:30 where he is saying that you can't look at 3 days of 10-minute bars to find the low. I can easily display 15 days of 10-minute bars on NinjaTrader and pick out the low. If I needed more I could um...mark a horizontal line and scroll (adjusting as I go)? And why do I need 10-minute bars to find the 3 day low. Any time period would show that. So, by catching him in an obvious bullshit moment makes me question his whole system.
how do i get in touch with you +truthseeker
TruthSeeker Good for you.
good stuff
I have a question.
so let's say I have built algorithm using code.
so my question is where do I get the information that will help my algorithm do trading.
so basically where do I get the input for the algorithm so it can execute what I told it to do.
in other words, how do I make my algorithm program see what the stock prices are. how do I make the algorithm see what I see.
Abdialibaba Ali did you build it
Did you find out how to get your algo to respond and act with any specific indicator?
How did you dig up this kid??? I can hear Aaron thinking the same.
The Sept-Oct 2008 huge market crashed 800points drop. Real Estate bubble popped. Great time to be Long Ford.
His “proof” for ML being viable for trading strategy development is reminiscent of the concept of sub spaces, and linear combinations of vectors in Linear Algebra.
Interesting point. Can you please give examples?
yeah i was thinking that
Do I really want to learn about the use of machine learning in trading from a guy who first started doing any machine learning on a coursera course a year ago and is only now starting a masters in compsci? That's less experience in machine learning than basically any computer science graduate from stanford or a bunch of other top 15 schools.
He uses genetic programming, which is everything he did during his Bioinformatics masters degree at John Hopkins. He is just using what he studied at John Hopkins, not necessarily coursera :)
I would also like to add that the CEO of Quantitative Investment Management which manages 5 billions and is doing well has a bachelors degree in econ i think but all his strategies are based on predicted statistics. the CEO basically taught everything himself. So, the bottomline is that degree is not everything that counts. This CEO was interviewed in market wizards by the way - Jaffray Woodriff.
Yea this dude knows almost nothing hahah
Education is changing. Do not need go back always to do a masters. Short courses on main topics are all that is needed
Great 👍
Where is tell real topic about ai in trading?
there is a typo in the title in the trader's surname
+Agnostic well spotted, thanks for pointing that out. (fixed)
Chat With Traders no problem, great podcast btw!
+Agnostic many thanks!
"Kind of, uh. Yeah, uh, like yeah." - The whole interview
😂😂😂😂
Oh my he says he doesn't use indicators. :O What kind of AI is he making?!!?
+gsadler82, we didn't talk about making an AI...
soft price pattern recognition
Interesting, he sounds like Bobs Burgers...
*58:56** (**59:24**)*
What does he mean by the comment when he said “African kids are born addicted to heroine and shoot their brother” that’s kinda a foolish statement. An average American kid is more addicted to heroine than their a African counterpart.
His ML explanation is unclear....
+Gonzalo Gasca Meza - If you'd like more of an explanation, Bert's offered to answer questions in the comments here: chatwithtraders.com/ep-042-bert-mouler/
+Chat With Traders Thanks for the prompt reply, I will take a look at it. I think would have been great for ML beginners a more concise explanation of this important topic in Trading. I will continue listening to your podcast great work! Thanks!
😱 what???
I wasn't a huge fan a this dude
Maybe because you didn't get a thing lol
@@miguelzorrilla3401 Had to re-listen because it's really not like me to have something negative to say about CWT. Anyway, I think it was his lack on passion or interest during the interview. I did notice a couple years later there was a follow up interview which I also relistened to and must say it was a 180 from this one. A lot more passion and interest in the topic; he also seemed more HFT which wasn't originally. Thanks for the reply because going back and relistening helped validate what I do!
gsadler82 I know what you mean, he was speaking in another language, I suppose it’s like listening to a FX or futures contract podcast for the first time. Did you get more insights than before from this second time? I admire people who spend time listening to CWT. Have you listened to all of them?
@@miguelzorrilla3401 I try to listen to the ones that deal with FX or algos as that's my area of expertise. I definitely got a lot of nuggets out of what he was saying this time around (I forget the last time as that was years ago). Understanding other people's systems is always interesting to me. Machine learning has a lot of terms that are super specific to ML education but don't really translate into terms familiar with regular trading. Like features, variables, etc. which really mean signal/setup criteria. I created my own custom ML framework but use ideas that come from the traditional ML. I don't have formal education in ML so it was quite a learning curve to translate it to what I was doing.
gsadler82 I’d like to exchange emails if that’s alright
This is another dude who thinks AI is magic.
This guy is so full of himself. I don't think he realizes that an overwhelming number of traders are engineers and he talks like the audience is dumb. I think this guy's failure is around the corner. Hear him again maybe in another 10 years
LOL
at least he knows what the fuck he is talking about
I actually don't think he is experienced enough and that his failure is around the corner. But what's your point? so if he knows what he is talking about then he can talk dumb to you.
" his failure is around the corner" WHY?
When he talks he sounds green to me. Also he is young so maybe biased on my side
too complicated explanation...!
+Tony Parker - Bert's offered to answer any questions in the comments here: chatwithtraders.com/ep-042-bert-mouler/
Very painful to listen to - sounds like he memorized a bunch of ML buzzwords ....
This guy is so boring. He says "you know" constantly. Can't describe what a variable is, can only vaguely mention the distinction between ML and AI, and sounds like he's just woken up. Skip this video. You won't learn much here.
You are not a good listener. Also people who criticize others are not beneficial to world harmony but demonstrate lower class, animalistic savagery. Bert is willing to get up early to share trade theory with people across the globe. Who wants to interviewing you?
Bev Renee'
Is that all you can say? He's been paid to be interviewed, at least, presumably.
My criticism still stands. He spoke aload of fluff which wasted my time and bored me.
And FYI, I have no interest in being interviewed. I mean, why would I want to help a moron like you?
Criticizing others isn't savagery, you delusional liberal fruit cake. Criticism is what we have had to do in order to build civilization, i.e. scientist scrutinize not only each other, but their own theories to the nth degree.
+ProlifeVeganAryan - Bert was not paid for the interview, nor is anyone else who has featured on the podcast. Also, labeling someone as a "moron" and a "fruit cake" does not make your argument any stronger-lets keep it civil here, please.
Chat With Traders
Your interviewer skills were non-existent. You asked him to elaborate on what ML was, and he couldn't be bothered to clearly explain what it was, and yet you carried on as if it was a crystal clear explanation.
Keep it civil, excuse me? I was just told I'm a savage for criticizing your half awake guest.
So yes, Bev is a moron. And I suggest you polish up on your interviewer "skills" before posting another video that wastes my time.
Don't like criticism and negative comments? Then disable the comments section.
+ProlifeVeganAryan - I welcome constructive criticism and debate, but it's unnecessary to be calling names.
I'm sorry, but I find this all so disgusting. Our math whizzes should be working to make discoveries which will make all of humanity more wealthy, not figure out how to redistribute wealth unfairly in a zero-sum game. Trading as it is currently practiced by the stock market is little more than gambling, and just redistributes unmerited wealth from the poor to the rich, so its little more than stealing and criminal. We need a stock market for long term investments, but this is just sad our best and brightest devote themselves to this trash. What all your green paper going to mean when we live in a world where are smartest people have wasted their time on these silly pursuits and we are all more impoverished as a result. All the green paper in the world will not buy a cure for your cancer if no one hasn't worked on this.
Did you actually listen to the end? His goals are hardly disgusting. Some people manage to make a lot of money, and do a LOT of good with it. That's not disgusting. That's admirable.
Zack Barkley The stock market makes jobs for the poor. How on earth could the stock market take money from the poor?
Henry Merrilees
Anyone who has power or can effectively print their own money can "make jobs", but if those jobs are just running in circles, and generating wealth from nothing, this only makes those who truly produce real value (i.e. teachers, scientists, engineers, non-corporate lawyers, plumbers, carpenters, builders, etc etc) poorer. The financial sector is bloated beyond its usefullness. Banks and investments should be boring, but because we've allowed the foxes in the henhouse, they wield unreasonable power on legitimate institutions and productive people. I could care less if Warren Buffet or Starbucks makes billions by overcharging for sugar water (i.e. coca cola) and coffee...good for them I guess let them live their aimless stupid lives sipping martinis on yachts...the problem is these people have the hubris that they should try (and succeed) at buying out people and institutions (and subsequently ruin them) which produce real value. Hence, Soros crashing the Asian ecomomy. Hedge funds buying out pharm companies and charging what desparate sick patients will bear (ultimately killing people in the process), pharm companies and silicon valley monopoloist sequestering our best engineers and scientists discoveries behind trade secrets and patent thickets...inhibiting true innnovation and open-source development for decades and perhaps indefinitely, and the billionaires with their unmiertied wealth ruining our democracy (Koch brothers) or populating the highest leadership positions with idiots (George Bush & Trump). Capitalism is failing us worldwide. It does not produce useful jobs, it produces usefless jobs and wastes our best talents and corrupts our whole system. Intelligent people using techology to pick up the bread crumbs of these losers ruining our world is beyond disgusting. Modern crony capitalist are the great grandstanders robbing the productive classes of their value and morality.
Zack Barkley If it was truly generating wealth from nothing it would be called a bubble. Absolutely certain sectors can be bubbles, but the entire thing? The money that they make is caused by the companies that they invested in getting bigger and hiring more people etc. And the world has yet to produce any better system than capitalism.
Capitalism (in the sense of post-WWII) and industrial 19th century did work...but that was because it worked on a level playing field or where there were large taxes on those who stole or exploited the works of others (i.e. the vast majority of millionaires and billionaries). Capitalism in this sense is successful because it produces a meritocracy...which does not exist today. Also, capitalism for all its grandstanding has ALWAYS failed at producing the most innovative discoveries without "socialist" work programs (NASA and university funded research) or borrowing its talent from socialist and communist countries which generally educate their youth better (German and Russian scientist in the 20th century and the Far East in the 21st century). Remember it took Russia to send up Sputnik for the West to gets off is arse and do something which didn't make them "immediate profits" yet ushered in the modern technological computuer innovations we beneift from and a few silcone valley billionaires have stolen the property of and now illegitimately claim as their own today. Capitalism will fail in terms of both innovation and economically. Privatized industries (medical device manufacture and aerospace) have seen many decades of stagnation because caring about money is antithetical to the dissemination of knowledge and information. The "success" of capitalism is largely an illusion and grandstanding by rich jerks who want to further cannibalize and exploit what little there is left.