I am listening to this from Hong Kong. Outstanding podcast. The questions all three of you posed and addressed around 41:30 minutes onwards; regarding are we adapting quickly enough to the changing world stage, are definitely spot on. Having been in East Asia for 25 years, and run two businesses in mainland China, I can answer with a resounding, "NO, WE ARE NOT!". I think all three of you addressed this issue of planning, adaptation and reaction extremely well and I was very heartened to hear your views. We have been ignoring East Asia, to our peril, while concentrating on Iraq, Afghanistan and the Mid East in general. In the meantime, all the macro indicators were dictating that we should be doing otherwise. Simply starting with the fact that over half the world's population lives in this theatre, if one includes India, and the comparative GDPs of the players involved...and it simply goes from there. Outstanding work and frankly, it was a relief to hear that we are indeed looking in the mirror and taking a hard look.
As a Dutch national civilian i find that this information helps enormously to better understand todays' geopolitical situation. Thanks for that! Keep up the good work!
As a long time USNI Member I am just now finding these live streams and am thoroughly enjoying the conversations presented. Hope to catch one live in the future to join the chat. Please keep up the great work as I know how hard these are to do from my experience.
The British Empire first de-industrialized Indian shipbuilding, fabric and gun manufacturing. Later Indians would not be allowed to service and repair train locomotives. US corporations have successfully de-industrialized US manufacturing and shipped it to China over the last 30 years. We're unable to deliver munitions, planes, ships in reasonable time. Meanwhile using their now vast industrial base they can churn out all kinds of weapons at a fraction of the cost it takes us. 24:10 Chinese are methodical. China realized the US would not go to war over the Spratly Islands just as Russia bit off Crimea with no military consequences. 44:40 What we can do now?
Thanks for a session of deep insights on the strengths and weaknesses of the American current posture and the Chinese counter strategy. I enjoyed listening and learning!
Imagine being CHINESE and being happy that China is being contained, man, only if Sun Yat Sen was alive today 😢, It's like taking the Japanese side when they invaded China
Just the words "deal with China" Says it all about American intentions. Fortunately it is far too late. China has far to lon a head start, and not only that, it has the ability to build replacement ships far faster than the USA. Which is vital when facing the reality of the attrition of war losses. Even If the USA could withstand the initial losses. It has no way to replace them at a sufficient rate to continue aggression or even an adequate defence. It is a good thing that China has shown no comparable signs of aggression or intent. I t would make a great deal of sense for the USA to accept its undoubted future of second place in the world.
I'm confused that Peter Ziehan who seems up to speed on many issues is so far out in left field on this issue. If the Chinese navy is as advanced as we are hearing in these podcasts, the US has a lot of catching up to do.
Peter Zeihan is very ignorant of China. Example: China is self sufficient in food in term of calories, what they import are mostly animal feed and luxury food items. China will have less meat and wine, but they won't starve.
@@r_90g2 One of the hilarious arguments of Zeihan is sea blockade of the Malacca Strait. First of all the Malacca strait is within the first island chain, which means it's within the defensive shield of China. Second, China has plenty of land option (rail, road, pipeline) to transport its energy import. Yes. it's more expensive, but China won't starve.
Think about this? CSG may survive 1st missile attack, after that it is over for the Carrier strike group, no more defensive missiles! Meanwhile, China just keeps firing them off at us! Why they don't convert a retired Nimitz ship into a giant missle ship is beyond me?
@@michaell.8513 A giant missile ship can be easily neutralized by thousands of kamikaze drones. A CSG is useful for near shore offensive but useless if the defender can throw thousands of missiles, drones, decoys, balloons, torpedoes at it.
I wonder how the US would react if China sailed its warships 200 nautical miles off US shores or built hundreds of military bases and missile sites encircling N America.
@@1016McKean Lol more like moral hypocrisy. Sure the US is such a protector of freedom that over 1/4 of the nations of the world are currently under US sanctions. Why don't you ask all those govts the US has toppled over the years in the name of freedom how much the US cares about them. Ask Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan why they gave their precious resources to the US for free in the name of freedom. In that sense the US is the single largest global oppressor who is way more interested in preserving its own global hegemony then it ever was about freedom.
@@1016McKean Wow, you live in fantasy land. You need to ask the people in the countries destroyed by the US for their opinion of the US. Speaking like a self licking ice cream cone wouldn’t convince anyone but yourself.
However in protecting them the USA causes the death of more of them and turns more of them into war zones of destruction and death , than any enemy. So far no one is any freer than they were before. But find them selves enslaved by the USA or ruled by their enemies. All for the hegemony and enrichment of the USA.
A political analyst in the USA says that China can not compete with the USA. What is the real truth Tom. ? As an American I am very worried since these communists are now extremely aggressive. Is the US declining so much that a middle income country can surpass us?
Man, it's the other way around, man. You are a 337 million population country who is a net borrower with a $31 Trillion national debt wanting to compete against a 1.4 Billion population country who is a net lender who has $3.4 Trillions in cash and hundreds profitable state owned companies worth gazillions of dollars. The US wanting to compete with China is like when the UK tried to compete with the US and tried to prevent the US from overtaking the UK in the late 19th century. Its impossible. Right now the US is paying $60 Billion to China every year just in interest for the money it borrowed from China. Right now China manufacturers 2x more shipping tonnage in peace time than the US used to manufacture at the peak of its full scale war production during WWII. China graduates 7x more STEMS- Scientists, Technology experts, Engineers and Mathematicians than the US. They are publishing more scientific papers and more patents than the US. How are you going to beat that. While the US spent Trillions of dollars in the last 20 years in endless wars China removed 800 million out of poverty and pushed 500 million people into the middle class. I would advise you to go to China and see the country with your own two eyes. Go see the infrastructure they have built. The high speed rail, the cities, the air ports, the high ways. Then go back and look at the US and its crumbling infrastructure. There is no way the US is going to beat that. You are talking about China being aggressive. China hasn't fought a single war in 43 years. You are worried about confronting China. The US has turned into a freaking basket case with all the poverty and homelessness, phentanyl overdose deaths and hopelessness. You need to fix the serious problems facing the US before you decide to compete with anyone else.
The Chinese GDP has reached 20 trillion in 2022 only 5 trillion less than the US GDP. And no, China is not communist, rather China is a predatory Capitalist with Robin Hood policy and engaged in unrestricted war, i.e. winning the war without firing a single bullet. America only has one strategy, which is shoot first and think later. Guess how many Chinatowns are in the world today.
@@danwelterweight4137 The kind of ugly, nasty CCP propaganda that you are repeating is exactly why the CCP is hated. Want to be a bully? Sure. Go ahead. Do not be surprised when your life gets worse, and you find you have no friends. The view from this side of the Pacific is that we helped China industrialize; we helped China build it's economy. We looked the other way while China stole technologies and secrets, and did nothing. "Spare the rod and spoil the child" some people said; they were ignored. The goal was to help China grow and mature. We were sure that China would become rich, prosperous, and democratic, with a happy healthy middle class enjoying freedom and the good life. Part of a big, happy global family. Instead, we got the spoiled child. Throwing temper tantrums, behaving badly, being dishonest. Lying, cheating, stealing. What's wrong with you? Why are you like this? Why do you chose the life of a criminal? Where is all that hatred coming from?
Great discussion, My only problem is we are all talk, China meanwhile is all action! They are building, They are experimenting? they are actually doing something! Meanwhile, America is all talk and BS. Nothing that I see have we reacted in any way but all talk! TALK DOESN'T CUT IT!
When will the Pentagon announce the creation of a new cadre of Coast Watchers to be posted to the empty No-Man's-Lands on these islands on these chains?
Why would they want to do that, except to give jobs to a few of their unemployed and homeless. Satellites do the watching job very easily but what could the USA actually do if they saw something.
The one thing I would say is that cutting off access to oil and food imports would impact China far greater than Russia. Russia is a major exporter, China imports virtually all of its oil and over half its food.
Yes, the crisis blockade idea, strategy may be overcome by rail supply through eastern and northern China from the territory of Russia, if their alliance holds and their needs become imperative, can these western and northern rail links measure up to the supply task?
A blockade ties up a lot of ships, which also become targets. Sinking one of today's tankers would cause major of collateral damage. A way should be found to quickly and cheaply disable commercial shipping. Maybe disrupt a few ports.
Send a Japanese, Taiwanese, American, UK, NZ, AUS combined task force to the area to send a strong unambiguous message to the PRC. And send a NATO/US/Ukrainian flotilla into the Black Sea to send an equally unambiguous message to the Kremlin. Situation solved. Alternative to Russia and Mainland China is to face a complete post-war nuclear wasteland. Simple..
And how do you suppose the USA would get permission to send a flotilla into the black sea. The combined force you mention could not even find a safe haven in the south China sea. Land based missiles have it covered.
I am listening to this from Hong Kong. Outstanding podcast. The questions all three of you posed and addressed around 41:30 minutes onwards; regarding are we adapting quickly enough to the changing world stage, are definitely spot on. Having been in East Asia for 25 years, and run two businesses in mainland China, I can answer with a resounding, "NO, WE ARE NOT!". I think all three of you addressed this issue of planning, adaptation and reaction extremely well and I was very heartened to hear your views. We have been ignoring East Asia, to our peril, while concentrating on Iraq, Afghanistan and the Mid East in general. In the meantime, all the macro indicators were dictating that we should be doing otherwise. Simply starting with the fact that over half the world's population lives in this theatre, if one includes India, and the comparative GDPs of the players involved...and it simply goes from there. Outstanding work and frankly, it was a relief to hear that we are indeed looking in the mirror and taking a hard look.
As a Dutch national civilian i find that this information helps enormously to better understand todays' geopolitical situation. Thanks for that! Keep up the good work!
As a long time USNI Member I am just now finding these live streams and am thoroughly enjoying the conversations presented. Hope to catch one live in the future to join the chat. Please keep up the great work as I know how hard these are to do from my experience.
The British Empire first de-industrialized Indian shipbuilding, fabric and gun manufacturing. Later Indians would not be allowed to service and repair train locomotives. US corporations have successfully de-industrialized US manufacturing and shipped it to China over the last 30 years. We're unable to deliver munitions, planes, ships in reasonable time.
Meanwhile using their now vast industrial base they can churn out all kinds of weapons at a fraction of the cost it takes us.
24:10 Chinese are methodical. China realized the US would not go to war over the Spratly Islands just as Russia bit off Crimea with no military consequences.
44:40 What we can do now?
Thanks for a session of deep insights on the strengths and weaknesses of the American current posture and the Chinese counter strategy. I enjoyed listening and learning!
Cheers 🍻 from 🇹🇼 Taiwan.
Imagine being CHINESE and being happy that China is being contained, man, only if Sun Yat Sen was alive today 😢, It's like taking the Japanese side when they invaded China
Just the words "deal with China"
Says it all about American intentions.
Fortunately it is far too late.
China has far to lon a head start, and not only that, it has the ability to build replacement ships far faster than the USA. Which is vital when facing the reality of the attrition of war losses.
Even If the USA could withstand the initial losses. It has no way to replace them at a sufficient rate to continue aggression or even an adequate defence.
It is a good thing that China has shown no comparable signs of aggression or intent.
I t would make a great deal of sense for the USA to accept its undoubted future of second place in the world.
Cheers from Taiwan.. A narrow fence to walk on.
Thoroughly enjoyed the discussion
Two types of naval ships: subs and targets 😅
two types of American sailors -- war criminals and pirates
I'm confused that Peter Ziehan who seems up to speed on many issues is so far out in left field on this issue. If the Chinese navy is as advanced as we are hearing in these podcasts, the US has a lot of catching up to do.
You've just been brainwashed by Zeihan.
Peter Zeihan is very ignorant of China.
Example: China is self sufficient in food in term of calories, what they import are mostly animal feed and luxury food items. China will have less meat and wine, but they won't starve.
@@r_90g2 One of the hilarious arguments of Zeihan is sea blockade of the Malacca Strait. First of all the Malacca strait is within the first island chain, which means it's within the defensive shield of China. Second, China has plenty of land option (rail, road, pipeline) to transport its energy import. Yes. it's more expensive, but China won't starve.
Think about this? CSG may survive 1st missile attack, after that it is over for the Carrier strike group, no more defensive missiles! Meanwhile, China just keeps firing them off at us! Why they don't convert a retired Nimitz ship into a giant missle ship is beyond me?
@@michaell.8513 A giant missile ship can be easily neutralized by thousands of kamikaze drones. A CSG is useful for near shore offensive but useless if the defender can throw thousands of missiles, drones, decoys, balloons, torpedoes at it.
I wonder how the US would react if China sailed its warships 200 nautical miles off US shores or built hundreds of military bases and missile sites encircling N America.
That’s moral equivalency. USA is not the aggressor, just the protector of free people and free governments everywhere.
@@1016McKean Lol more like moral hypocrisy. Sure the US is such a protector of freedom that over 1/4 of the nations of the world are currently under US sanctions. Why don't you ask all those govts the US has toppled over the years in the name of freedom how much the US cares about them. Ask Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan why they gave their precious resources to the US for free in the name of freedom. In that sense the US is the single largest global oppressor who is way more interested in preserving its own global hegemony then it ever was about freedom.
@@1016McKean Wow, you live in fantasy land. You need to ask the people in the countries destroyed by the US for their opinion of the US. Speaking like a self licking ice cream cone wouldn’t convince anyone but yourself.
@@1016McKean you are on point. China is an evil nation.
However in protecting them the USA causes the death of more of them and turns more of them into war zones of destruction and death , than any enemy.
So far no one is any freer than they were before. But find them selves enslaved by the USA or ruled by their enemies. All for the hegemony and enrichment of the USA.
Thoroughly enjoyed the discussion. Two types of naval ships: subs and targets .
A political analyst in the USA says that China can not compete with the USA. What is the real truth Tom. ? As an American I am very worried since these communists are now extremely aggressive. Is the US declining so much that a middle income country can surpass us?
Man, it's the other way around, man.
You are a 337 million population country who is a net borrower with a $31 Trillion national debt wanting to compete against a 1.4 Billion population country who is a net lender who has $3.4 Trillions in cash and hundreds profitable state owned companies worth gazillions of dollars.
The US wanting to compete with China is like when the UK tried to compete with the US and tried to prevent the US from overtaking the UK in the late 19th century.
Its impossible.
Right now the US is paying $60 Billion to China every year just in interest for the money it borrowed from China.
Right now China manufacturers 2x more shipping tonnage in peace time than the US used to manufacture at the peak of its full scale war production during WWII.
China graduates 7x more STEMS- Scientists, Technology experts, Engineers and Mathematicians than the US.
They are publishing more scientific papers and more patents than the US.
How are you going to beat that.
While the US spent Trillions of dollars in the last 20 years in endless wars China removed 800 million out of poverty and pushed 500 million people into the middle class.
I would advise you to go to China and see the country with your own two eyes.
Go see the infrastructure they have built. The high speed rail, the cities, the air ports, the high ways.
Then go back and look at the US and its crumbling infrastructure.
There is no way the US is going to beat that.
You are talking about China being aggressive. China hasn't fought a single war in 43 years.
You are worried about confronting China. The US has turned into a freaking basket case with all the poverty and homelessness, phentanyl overdose deaths and hopelessness.
You need to fix the serious problems facing the US before you decide to compete with anyone else.
The Chinese GDP has reached 20 trillion in 2022 only 5 trillion less than the US GDP. And no, China is not communist, rather China is a predatory Capitalist with Robin Hood policy and engaged in unrestricted war, i.e. winning the war without firing a single bullet. America only has one strategy, which is shoot first and think later.
Guess how many Chinatowns are in the world today.
@@danwelterweight4137 The kind of ugly, nasty CCP propaganda that you are repeating is exactly why the CCP is hated. Want to be a bully? Sure. Go ahead. Do not be surprised when your life gets worse, and you find you have no friends.
The view from this side of the Pacific is that we helped China industrialize; we helped China build it's economy. We looked the other way while China stole technologies and secrets, and did nothing. "Spare the rod and spoil the child" some people said; they were ignored. The goal was to help China grow and mature.
We were sure that China would become rich, prosperous, and democratic, with a happy healthy middle class enjoying freedom and the good life. Part of a big, happy global family.
Instead, we got the spoiled child. Throwing temper tantrums, behaving badly, being dishonest. Lying, cheating, stealing. What's wrong with you? Why are you like this? Why do you chose the life of a criminal? Where is all that hatred coming from?
"A New Cold War: Global Strategy"
A narrow fence to walk on
⭐
Great discussion, My only problem is we are all talk, China meanwhile is all action! They are building, They are experimenting? they are actually doing something! Meanwhile, America is all talk and BS. Nothing that I see have we reacted in any way but all talk! TALK DOESN'T CUT IT!
I've been saying for years that the US should field a humanitarian fleet.
Bejing travel guide
China can deny US navy access in West Pacific? wow, I didn't know that until I watched this video. It sounds very cool!
Chinese navy regularly come to the West coast, we can say the island chain strategy pretty much failed
When will the Pentagon announce the creation of a new cadre of Coast Watchers to be posted to the empty No-Man's-Lands on these islands on these chains?
Why would they want to do that, except to give jobs to a few of their unemployed and homeless.
Satellites do the watching job very easily but what could the USA actually do if they saw something.
The one thing I would say is that cutting off access to oil and food imports would impact China far greater than Russia. Russia is a major exporter, China imports virtually all of its oil and over half its food.
Yes, the crisis blockade idea, strategy may be overcome by rail supply through eastern and northern China from the territory of Russia, if their alliance holds and their needs become imperative, can these western and northern rail links measure up to the supply task?
A blockade ties up a lot of ships, which also become targets. Sinking one of today's tankers would cause major of collateral damage. A way should be found to quickly and cheaply disable commercial shipping. Maybe disrupt a few ports.
China can use those lanes in the 1st island chain just not militarily so what is there problem?
Who could stop them anyway?
And at what price?
why is the USA always thinking in terms of war ?
The USN will be supplying new underwater man-made reefs in the South China Sea. They call them US Aircraft Carriers....
So does this mean More Fat Leonard or Less Fat Leonard,?
P
Send a Japanese, Taiwanese, American, UK, NZ, AUS combined task force to the area to send a strong unambiguous message to the PRC. And send a NATO/US/Ukrainian flotilla into the Black Sea to send an equally unambiguous message to the Kremlin. Situation solved.
Alternative to Russia and Mainland China is to face a complete post-war nuclear wasteland. Simple..
And how do you suppose the USA would get permission to send a flotilla into the black sea.
The combined force you mention could not even find a safe haven in the south China sea. Land based missiles have it covered.