Hello you legends. Here’s the timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:00 Innovations from Seth Stephens-Davidowitz & Rory Sutherland 11:50 What People Get Wrong About Inflation 17:40 The Laziness of Toxic Cynicism 25:05 How the Pandemic Impacted Trust in Experts 30:08 Negative Consequences of Growing Skepticism 34:39 How Magic Links with Misinformation 39:55 Effectiveness of Using Intuition & Feeling 51:13 Lessons from the Invention of the Bicycle 1:00:31 Introducing Tax Incentives for Having Babies 1:11:44 Where to Find Tim
Wow Chris, not sure who is lining up your interview schedule, but you are on a hot streak here. Baggage Claim, Scott Galloway and now Tim Harford, hope this excellent quality of guests continues.
Any good experiment has hypotheses to prove from the outset, good methodology, carefully constructed questions, unbiased sample, and replicability. If done correctly, conclusions should logically follow and feelings have no say on the matter
@@theguy9067 a bad experiment can be proven false by failure to consistently replicate. All it takes is a curious mind who doesn’t like the findings to run a similar experiment to see if the results are reliable. Yes ensure no bias and ensure samples are random and so on, but if the answer comes out different, that should give a third observer a moment of pause before concluding anything
@@lordofgingers the "truth" is difficult to determine in a complex world. Take the ideal human diet. There have been countless studies of veganism, keto and what have you, some of the studies bad some of them good and some of them okay. Various "experts" citing the studies that support their view. One expert supporting x stating the opponents cited studies are badly designed and the other expert saying the same about the other. You might say, "well everyone's different and choose a diet that suits them". A study might have been well designed but the sample size was done on human beings in a particular region in the world and doesn't apply to other regions in the world. We also have bias and self serving studies. Example Pfizer funding and carrying out their own studies. Getting to the truth is difficult inside complex systems. You could say, yes it's obvious these studies are badly designed or obvious wrong or the data supplies was obviously not "correct". But that's not so obvious to someone who happens to side with the conclusion of the study
At 50 minutes you mention a friend’s insightful observation and quote him. I can’t find him on a Google search. Perhaps a potential future guest… Excellent podcast as always. Thank you.
I avoid using statistics in argumentation. I guess I find it far more fun to find common agreement about the relative reasonableness of contradictory claims. Appeals to the authority of stats and facts almost always destroy the possibility of argumentation, the exercise having degraded into an incoherent and irresolvable popularity contest of reputable sources.
Being from Australia I remember when the ‘Baby bonus’ came out a lot of lower class pregnant families went out and bought plasma TVs with the money, so it became the joke of ‘the Plasma TV bonus’
"The price in the store went up but also your wage went up." What about the money earned over many years getting devalued? What about the person who retired and isn't adding to their life savings anymore?
This is one of my favorite videos of yours. Thinking about this subject alot lately. Skepticism vs Cynicism vs Plausibility/Implausibility vs "Positivity" vs ... Over trusting, gullibility, faith.... intriguing stuff.
Where is the conversation with Peter Thiel you mentioned at 17:46?! It's not on UA-cam or Spotify from what I can see. I am a massive fan of Peter Thiel and would love to hear it.
This man used his Radio 4 programme to trot out the 'They Don't Care' argument also used against Dr John Campbell by BBC fact checkers - he is clearly very happy to take editorial lines from the BBC hierarchy - irrespective of the actual statistics.
These kinds of people are chameleons they don't actually act on a principle they hold but a principle that is expedient for their own acquisition of power cynicism is of course dangerous and should be defeated but as many of the narratives start to crumble we need to keep a prying eye open for the many cynical actors that will try to smuggle themselves in from the old narrative to the new one
Tim Harford's podcast appearance: 1. stated vs revealed preferences. 2. The aviation safety expert Earl Wiener is famous for “Wiener’s Laws”, which include “whenever you solve a problem you usually create one”. 3. "Having more experience or expertise or knowledge or training doesn't guarantee that you'll get it right." 4. Susan B. Antony, a women's rights activist, was asked what had been the greatest contributor to women's freedom and she said, "the bicycles" 5. "Indiscriminate doubt is at least as dangerous as indiscriminate belief" 6. looking cool by being a cynic. Dunking is how you get engagement.
Listening in my car at around 22 minutes and 22 seconds I thought that I was breathing loudly through my nasal passages but it turns out it was Chris all along
Very interesting chat lots of food for thought , at 70 odd it’s clear there’s very powerful groups that manipulate our lives, and depending on where your usefulness sits with theses groups will effect our lives, it’s up to every individual to comes to there personal choice how much of there soul and freedom to give up and be content, those that live in ignorance are most likely end up the happiest ?
Great chat, the ending was particularly interesting. I don't see though that immigration should be any kind of go-to solution, especially given the current situation - if not best avoided totally - and the countries from where immigrants come should be asking different questions of themselves too.
“The problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know” ― Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan “Avoid taking advice from someone who gives advice for a living, unless there is a penalty for their advice.” ― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Skin in the Game It was quite funny seeing this man give caveats to the concept of skin in the game while not fully grasping it. Skin in the game has to do with giving more weight to the opinion of people who face penalties for being wrong. It doesn't mean those opinions will always be correct. Here is an example of skin in the game: "Never ask the doctor what you should do. Ask him what he would do if he were in your place. You would be surprised at the difference” ~ Nassim Taleb Don't even get me started on his views on inflation...
I agree that there are more ways to be wrong than to be right, which makes it easier to trash talk your opposition than articulate your own ideas. Truth is consensus. But each anti-truth is unique.
"Truth is consensus." No! Consensus-reality comes from consensus, but has only a coincidental relationship with truth. Truth is what is real when no-one else is around to influence you.
@@KarlSmith1 I wish you were right, but no matter how true something is to me, the world is not going to accept it as truth until there is a consensus. At one point, truth was geocentric universe, then truth was heliocentric universe. What makes us think we have the ground truth now with general relativity? Consensus that's what. Until we move into a new paradigm where say quantum mechanics supplants general relativity as the ground truth, even then, it could go deeper.
Yes, I would like to hear that, not because I particularly like RT, but I know Chris would draw out his point of view rather than letting him stay in safe echo chamber territory.
If his definition of inflation HAS to include increases in wages, why would anybody have an issue with inflation. It doesn't matter what the so called technical definition of inflation is. When people say inflation they mean, general increases in the cost of living. Experts and layman use the word in this way, so it's doesn't matter what a 60 year old text book says. We define the words we use
@@Asto508 in some measures they are though. House prices are 9-11 times the average salary. In the 80s it was something like 3 times average salary. And yeah over time salaries do go up but there is a time between the increase in the cost of living and the matching increase in wages. Somewhere there is value being stolen from peoples savings
@@theguy9067 Housing has definitely undergone a huge inflation, especially in the last 20 years. Other goods however became cheaper over time (like electronics).
It's not a dichotomy between the baby incentive crowd being at odds with immigration. The economy is not the only factor, preservation of British culture is. There is plenty of logic in that.
You know, the late, great actor Christopher Lee was also part of the Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare. He never talked much about it, but he implied that he'd seen some shit. While he was filming his death scene in Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (it's in the extended edition), Lee corrected Peter Jackson on how a person sounds like when he gets knifed in the back.
This is why I can't take any economist seriously. If the prices in the store go up 10%, I'll be lucky to get a 1.2% increase in salary, IF I nail some arbitrary KPIs that can change at any time. This will be justified by a company making record profits as protecting your job in uncertain times. The ONLY way for me to make a 10% increase, or more, in salary is to change jobs. Which in uncertain times can be a fraught business. Most people do NOT stay in touch with inflationary pressure in terms of the ratio of income to expenditure. They slowly par-boil like the mythical frog who doesn't notice the temperature getting hotter until it is too late. To an economist, this is just a data point marking a section of the population as unable to adapt to societal and financial pressure. 30 years ago I was earning a quarter of what I earn now and never had more "disposable" income. Saving for a house was a piece of cake. In the country I live in, I am regarded as well paid but I am miles behind the curve in terms of staying in touch with actual cost of living increases which have been hockey-sticking in relative terms since the GFC followed by a disturbingly steep and growing trend "post-COVID." It's one thing to label people who dissent as "cynical," but that ignores the fact that wealth is accumulating in fewer and fewer organisations and individuals and Governments pander to them. Is it cynical to know that you can do nothing to reverse the trend because it is so far out of your control that it's easier to slowly par-boil than actively investigate the reasons? You can't change it. You will own nothing and you will be happy.
The people having extra children due to a government subsidy are probably not the people you’d like to have extra children. If a couple grand is going to affect your life so much that you’ll have a kid when you otherwise wouldn’t have, you’re likely very poor, poorly educated, and have a couple bad habits/parenting techniques to pass on to your children. Better to grab some young high skilled immigrants if you can, but population decline could be better addressed by cutting government spending and lowering barriers to trade.
We have a lot of blunt tools for hyper-objects. Hitting every problem with a hammer or a broom or with bleach. The world at large is a much more complicated/nuanced web, with a ton of diverse players who don’t deal with hyper-objects very well.
After hearing his (uninformed) opinion on inflation I want to burn the books written by him that I own. Living in a country with +100% anual inflation rate his analysis was outrageous
With regard to bias of skin in the game, it works both ways too, if you have all your net worth in USD or GBP or property, then you are hyper-positive about those assets, and down talk all other asset classes. You are then unable to see any positives of a new asset class, as it just appears like a threat on the horizon.
Yea, we will do the hard work of raising kids so when your old, there is a next generation to run things to make you comfortable. We don’t want you to burden yourself
I never made a definite decision one way or the other on having kids (I'm a male). As a boy/young man that sort of thought was not front and center as I would guess it was for girls. Years passed and two kids came my way, and I loved being a father. But the real reward is two grandkids and third on the way. I know of zero grandparents that have regrets about having children.
I reflexively wanted to challenge the idea that blogs were less click baity and more positive but after thinking about it long form *most* blogs definitely don't have the velocity or vitriol that video or short form media have. Most actual content pushing solutions in any faction rn occur on substack
LOL. I see my main comment vanished!! Who deleted it? Does Chris have a bot cleaning his comments and disinfecting skeptics and critics like me? Or is it just an issue with UA-cam? I see my most recent comment, but the more important comment I made earlier is invisible!!
I am not sure if he doesnt understand what inflation is or bad at explaining what he means. you cant get away with saying income also rise and left all other aspects of it out, such as savings. and even salaries doesnt catch up with inflation either, even if it has, there is delayed effect on that till next pay rise. even if your boss make salary adjustment the moment CPI disclosed, you already lost for a months worth of value.
It pisses me off that every "expert" states everybody else "doesn't understand inflation" and then states some "text book definition" like the text book came down from the mountain side. Currently people use the word inflation the way they use it. What I mean by that is that just because a dictionary definition says x doesn't mean that's how the word is commonly used in the present. When people use inflation they mean, general increases in the cost of living. It doesn't matter what the technical definition was 60 years ago in a textbook. Also his definition of inflation having to include wage increases is stupid, because inflation just wouldn't be a problem if everybodies wages also increased along with the price of goods and services. It would be a non issue. I find this pedantic redefining of words completely unhelpful and disingenuous. Sure agree on YOUR definition if it supports peoples understanding of your ideas but you the speaker are not an authority on the definition of words that EVEN EXPERTS APPARENTLY "GET WRONG"
Too much doubt is as bad as too much believe We are far better at coming up with arguments against other ideas than The less frequently you check the news, the more important is what you read, and you start to distinguish the signal from the noise. Expertise is an advantage if you're thinking clearly and you're not emotional, but once you're emotionally engaged expertise can be an active disadvantage
Cynicism, my interpretation of realism would be something like “I believe this *could* be false but I’ll check their source, their methodology, how it’s funded, etc.”
"We don't notice": damn straight! Having ADHD is like having an invisible pickpocket that takes your stuff and makes it vanish into thin air! And since screens and other instant gratification activities create more and more attention deficits.... minds are evaporating at an alarming rate...
12:30 Nope. Inflation is the increase (itself) in the money supply. You don't point at a full balloon ant call it inflation. Inflation is how it expanded. Rising prices are the result of inflation. 12:40 Nope. "the price of everything going up, by roughly the same amount, including your wages" STRETCHES the power of the word "roughly" so much, that he misses the point. It doesn't. And the people ( firms/ corporations / countries ) who get it first, get the most valuable dollars, and the people who get it last ( your grandma on SS/ people on fixed incomes and certainly people making minimum wage ) get the same dollars, but when they're worth less. Regular people salaries don't move at the speed of money markets. That's silly. 13:30 And not to get political here, but Vladimir Putin didn't "turn off the taps to the global energy system". He'll sell to anyone. He is. He'll sell to America right now. WE'RE blocking those sales... America and parts of NATO. Not to mention, this week ( I know this interview was a year ago ) Ukraine admitted that THEY blew up the Nord Stream pipeline to stop cheap energy from flowing to Europe. But, this isn't really hindsight knowledge - plenty of people knew Russia didn't blow up their own pipeline ( cuz that's dumb ). In the "inflation" portion of this interview, Mr Harford is doing a lot of heavy lifting for the people who are actually making the price of your food go up. When your own federal government is competing with you in the credit markets, and YOU are the collateral, but you're not sure why bond yields are over 5% and interest rates are creeping higher, it's nice to have friendly economist types to help you understand that you're just to dumb to understand. But, eventually the tide goes out...
"Putin turned off the gas," is a belief necessary to be employed at FT. A master of perception has picked a conclusion years downstream of other actions which led to that fact. The gas was on when pipeline was destroyed.
Why would or should the uk be okay with being colonised by other countries? It’s own women need to keep their bloodlines and what makes brits brits going
I think statistics just need to be “up to date”. Now, if someone says: “that’s impossible, that’d require massive amounts of capital put towards it and constantly”. To that, there is a very current-up-to-date example of an organisation that knows the value of these up-to-date statistics: Google.
If there’s a social benefit to children, voluntarily collect donations to fund those kids. Convince people that it’s in their best interests to fund those kids and you’ll get funding, don’t force us into your scheme to fix a very complicated problem with government force. You of all people should know how that power will be used. Before you know it there will be child benefit requirements: child must be jabbed, homeschooled child must attend LGBT inclusivity lessons, parent may not have history of hate speech on social media. Bad idea 👎
Uhhh what???? We have this already, at least in America. Everyone who has kids gets money from the government across the board. We homeschool our kids & still get the money. There's no requirements other than having kids and you can't make over 400,000 a year or something like that. So, I genuinely have no clue what you're talking about.
@@ShinyNix86 That is a good point and I’m surprised progressives haven’t threatened to pull this benefit yet (probably because they can threaten more important things like your job). The point is that you’re giving government bureaucrats another lever which can be used to control us. They cut off people’s power, fired people from jobs and restricted our travel this time, but in the next crisis they could easily threaten to pull this benefit too. Increased dependence on a government which wishes to micromanage our lives is not a good thing.
Personally, I don't like the term "toxic cynicism". Great interview and topic, but the word toxic is so overused these days that it has become cliche' and actually has the effect of reducing the punch that is required to describe some condition that some other better descriptor might better serve. We need to stop using the word toxic unless it involves TOXIC substances.
The thing people miss about inflation is that profits are soaring. So the issue is corporate greed. Period. Dress it up however you want, this is fact. Monopolies are suffocating everyone.
The issue is central banks across the world printing 35% of each bank's respective currency over the past 3 years during a period of stagnating production and negative GDP growth. The US Dollar is at 30-year-highs despite inflation being massive because the Euro and the Yen are that much worse relatively speaking. Also, why wouldn't inflation be the cause of rising profits, not the effect? If there's more currency units in a jurisdiction, entities operating in that jurisdiction will need more of that currency to break even, leading to bigger numbers.
Hi Chris, big fan and love most if your interviews. I have to ask for the sake that it's distracting, why are you so close to the camera? It feels like you are right in my grill. Your head is literally twice the size of the guests.
About women having children/not having children: "We two are probably not the best people to ask" - thank you Mr Harford. I have found the likes of Mr Williamson, Peterson, et al, let alone Republican right wing et all pontificating the way they do on this topic often insulting, upsetting, patronising and bias. It is a deeply personal matter and each woman has her reasons, often beyond her control.
The discussion does not involve the reasons of individual women, but general overall trends. Whether or not people can detach themselves from the aggregate data does not discount the results of that data. Also, it's "biased", not "bias". I see this typo enough that I'm now not sure if people are aware that "bias" is a noun.
@@ryebr3ad Tone and opinion accompany these discussions. (Sorry for not giving 3000% focus to nouns versus adjectives in one youtube comment - things to do, there are things to actually do..)
@@yogawithdivya108 That it would require focus at all is a failing on your part. "Tone and opinion" are all ad hominem attempts to discredit any discussion being had.
I understand how you might find those men’s comments patronising, but would you say it’s then also unreasonable for women to ever discuss men’s choices and behaviours, considering that, as women, they don’t understand the “lived experience” and nuanced personal circumstances of the men in question?
@@nf6386 Thanks for calmly asking your question. Of course men and women should be able to discuss the challenges and situation both find themselves in. But when it comes to a man's body plus a life changing decision that only he can make, I would never pronounce what he should do, as an individual or as a collective. "Entering in discussion with" is a different matter, but in these circumstances progress is to be gained more from listening. If I may share an example (as you seem a reasonable person and I appreciate your question). I used to work for a charity in London that helps disadvantaged young men. Quite unique in their work. Helping marginalised teens and young men get back on track. Every single one of our project workers was, deliberately, a man. It would not work one bit to have employed female project or youth workers, I could write an essay on why but I think you'll get the meaning here. Thanks again for the enquiring question.
Who are these people "rejecting everything on the grounds it's got statistics in"? Please name names. I'm a skeptic. I reject bad statistics, bad data, and bad methods in general. There's a lot of bad stats out there.
Hi Chris, I can serve as your only sample if you want to know how much sex people in their 20s have had since 2018. The answer is zero, haven't had sex or any romantic encounter since 2017. Hope that helps, even though I've doomed all of us as incels and have personally crashed the birth rates of every country. Cheers.
As a concerned single 30 something woman who is not having regular sex, I find that people in my situation are more conscious about not wanting to bring children into a (perceived) dying fkd up world (one reason), however, I'd be open to having children if I found the right partner (which is proving difficult not only because I'd be considered a successful independent woman), a partner who would want that life ie. Wanting to be committed to someONE and wanting to be a father, other factors that add to not having kids in this time of my life is a bit of selfishness (I love being on my own schedule, doing things I want to do) and lack time and patience to go through the process of finding the right partner. But I know later in life I would to be surrounded by family etc. But in a world that breeds instant gratification and the yolo life.. it's hard to keep that vision burning, the world isnt encouraging that sort of behaviour too
I'm twice your age and it was, when we were young, just a forgone conclusion that we'd marry and have kids - and all of us did. Not all the marriages made it, obviously. Second marriages are common and blended families can be quite happy. Think about what you want your old age to look like... No children, no grandchildren pave the way for a potentially lonely life. Maybe that's OK for you. My point is what a difference a generation makes. My wife and I celebrate our 40th this year - a lot less consideration and consternation went into it, "hey you wanna get married?" "yeah sure"
@@craigwillms61 that's lovely, happy 40th anni! What an amazing milestone! And I guess that's a big thing, you grew up in an environment where that was the norm, when we're living in an environment where that's largely 'discouraged' and that the concept of the world is our oyster, is pretty real, we have access to the whole world and long term goals and long term thinking are the exception not the norm. And the sad thing is, that would be the most fulfilling thing we could pursue What would be your best advice, considering that we live in a world that doesn't support these thoughtful, considered long term thinking and commitment particularly with relationships
@@iamchicharon Oh geez, I'm a dinosaur, I mean that literally, my kind will go extinct. That's the fate of the world since the devil has won. There is no more 'go forth and multiply'. The current generation is too afraid of the chaos and uncertainty marriage and children bring, but my God the beauty is in the journey not the destination. If happiness is the destination, that's just a place you visit once in a while, you do not stay. Find a man who wants to go on the journey and love him despite everything. He's out there, you might be surprised, and good luck... (climbing down off soapbox now)
@@craigwillms61 and yet dinosaurs are things we go to the ends of the Earth's to discover what wisdom they hold for us. I love that about happiness, you only go there sometimes. And it's true, the chaos and uncertainty of that journey scares us, because we have so much control in our world and giving that up is so vulnerable. Thanks for the vote of confidence and the wisdom shared, you should jump on that soapbox more often haha will have to let you know how this journey goes!
Interesting question about number of children women have. I’m 59. Thought I’d have a couple children. Reason I have none: lack of trustworthy male. Perhaps it’s my own problem of trust, but I saw so many friends struggle with fathers that weren’t responsible, caused problems, and they were then stuck dealing with those men that caused so much trouble in their lives. I saw more of that than men that were reliable good fathers. I am from a middle class family with parents that stayed married until I was 23. Well, here’s one data point😊
Yep, we have an epidemic of vvomen CHOOSING to settle down with the bad boy& popping out multiple children. Meanwhile the "good guy" is left sitting on the sidelines and/or has to jump through hoops. Long story short, this is a problem created entirely by vvomen.
If you both had children in their mid twenties you would know why young people are not having children. It’s because they can’t afford to buy a 3 bed house and do less paid work at the same time.
If you both had children in their mid twenties you would know why young people are not having children. It’s because they can’t afford to buy a 3 bed house and do less paid work at the same time.
Hello you legends. Here’s the timestamps:
00:00 Intro
02:00 Innovations from Seth Stephens-Davidowitz & Rory Sutherland
11:50 What People Get Wrong About Inflation
17:40 The Laziness of Toxic Cynicism
25:05 How the Pandemic Impacted Trust in Experts
30:08 Negative Consequences of Growing Skepticism
34:39 How Magic Links with Misinformation
39:55 Effectiveness of Using Intuition & Feeling
51:13 Lessons from the Invention of the Bicycle
1:00:31 Introducing Tax Incentives for Having Babies
1:11:44 Where to Find Tim
Tesla said “The scientists of today think deeply instead of clearly. One must be sane to think clearly, but one can think deeply and be quite insane."
Thank you for the Quote! I had never heard that one before.
u solved all my problems🤗
He was also in love with a pigeon, so...
That is cool!!
Wow Chris, not sure who is lining up your interview schedule, but you are on a hot streak here. Baggage Claim, Scott Galloway and now Tim Harford, hope this excellent quality of guests continues.
The problem is not with statistics. Problems arise from the data sets and or what conclusions are drawn from the analysis.
Any good experiment has hypotheses to prove from the outset, good methodology, carefully constructed questions, unbiased sample, and replicability.
If done correctly, conclusions should logically follow and feelings have no say on the matter
@@lordofgingers yes, good things are good. Unfortunately that's not what happens in practice
@@theguy9067 a bad experiment can be proven false by failure to consistently replicate. All it takes is a curious mind who doesn’t like the findings to run a similar experiment to see if the results are reliable. Yes ensure no bias and ensure samples are random and so on, but if the answer comes out different, that should give a third observer a moment of pause before concluding anything
@@lordofgingers the "truth" is difficult to determine in a complex world. Take the ideal human diet. There have been countless studies of veganism, keto and what have you, some of the studies bad some of them good and some of them okay. Various "experts" citing the studies that support their view. One expert supporting x stating the opponents cited studies are badly designed and the other expert saying the same about the other. You might say, "well everyone's different and choose a diet that suits them". A study might have been well designed but the sample size was done on human beings in a particular region in the world and doesn't apply to other regions in the world. We also have bias and self serving studies. Example Pfizer funding and carrying out their own studies. Getting to the truth is difficult inside complex systems. You could say, yes it's obvious these studies are badly designed or obvious wrong or the data supplies was obviously not "correct". But that's not so obvious to someone who happens to side with the conclusion of the study
@@theguy9067 true and their bias is their problem. Failure to consistently replicate over and over across all regions and so on will reveal what is.
At 50 minutes you mention a friend’s insightful observation and quote him. I can’t find him on a Google search. Perhaps a potential future guest… Excellent podcast as always. Thank you.
I avoid using statistics in argumentation. I guess I find it far more fun to find common agreement about the relative reasonableness of contradictory claims. Appeals to the authority of stats and facts almost always destroy the possibility of argumentation, the exercise having degraded into an incoherent and irresolvable popularity contest of reputable sources.
Being from Australia I remember when the ‘Baby bonus’ came out a lot of lower class pregnant families went out and bought plasma TVs with the money, so it became the joke of ‘the Plasma TV bonus’
"The price in the store went up but also your wage went up." What about the money earned over many years getting devalued? What about the person who retired and isn't adding to their life savings anymore?
Right. And what about your wage NOT going up?
No company will raise wages (automatically) just because prices soar.
Pretty sure when he brought this up he was defining the textbook definition of inflation, not necessarily the current state of the economy.
This is one of my favorite videos of yours. Thinking about this subject alot lately. Skepticism vs Cynicism vs Plausibility/Implausibility vs "Positivity" vs ... Over trusting, gullibility, faith.... intriguing stuff.
Food: Number go up
Energy: Number go up
Rent: Number go up
Wagies: Number go....
Wages are sticky. He got that part wrong
@@KS-qc4lo so sticky up?
@@KS-qc4lo good boy tokens.....Number go up
The part of Conan Doyle just blew my mind. I didnt know the story.
Very interesting conversation!
Where is the conversation with Peter Thiel you mentioned at 17:46?! It's not on UA-cam or Spotify from what I can see. I am a massive fan of Peter Thiel and would love to hear it.
Highly recommend Tims books.
Second that: The Undercover Economist and Strikes Back are excellent, Adapt is brilliant.
This man used his Radio 4 programme to trot out the 'They Don't Care' argument also used against Dr John Campbell by BBC fact checkers - he is clearly very happy to take editorial lines from the BBC hierarchy - irrespective of the actual statistics.
These kinds of people are chameleons they don't actually act on a principle they hold but a principle that is expedient for their own acquisition of power cynicism is of course dangerous and should be defeated but as many of the narratives start to crumble we need to keep a prying eye open for the many cynical actors that will try to smuggle themselves in from the old narrative to the new one
I’d like to understand what you are getting at here, can you please elaborate?
Insightful conversation!
Tim Harford's podcast appearance:
1. stated vs revealed preferences.
2. The aviation safety expert Earl Wiener is famous for “Wiener’s Laws”, which include “whenever you solve a problem you usually create one”.
3. "Having more experience or expertise or knowledge or training doesn't guarantee that you'll get it right."
4. Susan B. Antony, a women's rights activist, was asked what had been the greatest contributor to women's freedom and she said, "the bicycles"
5. "Indiscriminate doubt is at least as dangerous as indiscriminate belief"
6. looking cool by being a cynic. Dunking is how you get engagement.
Listening in my car at around 22 minutes and 22 seconds I thought that I was breathing loudly through my nasal passages but it turns out it was Chris all along
Very interesting chat lots of food for thought , at 70 odd it’s clear there’s very powerful groups that manipulate our lives, and depending on where your usefulness sits with theses groups will effect our lives, it’s up to every individual to comes to there personal choice how much of there soul and freedom to give up and be content, those that live in ignorance are most likely end up the happiest ?
Great chat, the ending was particularly interesting. I don't see though that immigration should be any kind of go-to solution, especially given the current situation - if not best avoided totally - and the countries from where immigrants come should be asking different questions of themselves too.
♥️ another great show! Thanks
“The problem with experts is that they do not know what they do not know”
― Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan
“Avoid taking advice from someone who gives advice for a living, unless there is a penalty for their advice.”
― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Skin in the Game
It was quite funny seeing this man give caveats to the concept of skin in the game while not fully grasping it.
Skin in the game has to do with giving more weight to the opinion of people who face penalties for being wrong. It doesn't mean those opinions will always be correct.
Here is an example of skin in the game:
"Never ask the doctor what you should do. Ask him what he would do if he were in your place. You would be surprised at the difference” ~ Nassim Taleb
Don't even get me started on his views on inflation...
I agree that there are more ways to be wrong than to be right, which makes it easier to trash talk your opposition than articulate your own ideas.
Truth is consensus.
But each anti-truth is unique.
"Truth is consensus."
No! Consensus-reality comes from consensus, but has only a coincidental relationship with truth. Truth is what is real when no-one else is around to influence you.
@@KarlSmith1 I wish you were right, but no matter how true something is to me, the world is not going to accept it as truth until there is a consensus. At one point, truth was geocentric universe, then truth was heliocentric universe. What makes us think we have the ground truth now with general relativity? Consensus that's what. Until we move into a new paradigm where say quantum mechanics supplants general relativity as the ground truth, even then, it could go deeper.
Have Rollo tomassi(the rationale male ) on your podcast.
Yes, I would like to hear that, not because I particularly like RT, but I know Chris would draw out his point of view rather than letting him stay in safe echo chamber territory.
1:04:40 How does taking in mainly young men solve the demographic decline?
All the experts know less than all the rest. I trust the masses to eventually get it right.
Inflation happened before we cut off oil from Russia. Also, wages never increase at the same rate as inflation.
if wages do not keep up, you have a revolt.
If his definition of inflation HAS to include increases in wages, why would anybody have an issue with inflation. It doesn't matter what the so called technical definition of inflation is. When people say inflation they mean, general increases in the cost of living. Experts and layman use the word in this way, so it's doesn't matter what a 60 year old text book says. We define the words we use
@@theguy9067 If wages didn't rise with inflation, then every wagie would be poorer and poorer over time. Reality is different though.
@@Asto508 in some measures they are though. House prices are 9-11 times the average salary. In the 80s it was something like 3 times average salary. And yeah over time salaries do go up but there is a time between the increase in the cost of living and the matching increase in wages. Somewhere there is value being stolen from peoples savings
@@theguy9067 Housing has definitely undergone a huge inflation, especially in the last 20 years. Other goods however became cheaper over time (like electronics).
Tkz Chris 🌷👌
It's not a dichotomy between the baby incentive crowd being at odds with immigration. The economy is not the only factor, preservation of British culture is. There is plenty of logic in that.
"Maybe we don't have the same Rebel Spirit as the USA"
Howdy from the daughters of the American Revolution
You know, the late, great actor Christopher Lee was also part of the Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare. He never talked much about it, but he implied that he'd seen some shit. While he was filming his death scene in Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (it's in the extended edition), Lee corrected Peter Jackson on how a person sounds like when he gets knifed in the back.
I'd assume everyone sounds different. I mean 47 is not a big sample size but eh ...
"Turned off the taps"
😆
He meant 'Sanctions' I'm sure
This is why I can't take any economist seriously. If the prices in the store go up 10%, I'll be lucky to get a 1.2% increase in salary, IF I nail some arbitrary KPIs that can change at any time. This will be justified by a company making record profits as protecting your job in uncertain times. The ONLY way for me to make a 10% increase, or more, in salary is to change jobs. Which in uncertain times can be a fraught business. Most people do NOT stay in touch with inflationary pressure in terms of the ratio of income to expenditure. They slowly par-boil like the mythical frog who doesn't notice the temperature getting hotter until it is too late. To an economist, this is just a data point marking a section of the population as unable to adapt to societal and financial pressure. 30 years ago I was earning a quarter of what I earn now and never had more "disposable" income. Saving for a house was a piece of cake. In the country I live in, I am regarded as well paid but I am miles behind the curve in terms of staying in touch with actual cost of living increases which have been hockey-sticking in relative terms since the GFC followed by a disturbingly steep and growing trend "post-COVID."
It's one thing to label people who dissent as "cynical," but that ignores the fact that wealth is accumulating in fewer and fewer organisations and individuals and Governments pander to them. Is it cynical to know that you can do nothing to reverse the trend because it is so far out of your control that it's easier to slowly par-boil than actively investigate the reasons? You can't change it. You will own nothing and you will be happy.
The people having extra children due to a government subsidy are probably not the people you’d like to have extra children. If a couple grand is going to affect your life so much that you’ll have a kid when you otherwise wouldn’t have, you’re likely very poor, poorly educated, and have a couple bad habits/parenting techniques to pass on to your children. Better to grab some young high skilled immigrants if you can, but population decline could be better addressed by cutting government spending and lowering barriers to trade.
We have a lot of blunt tools for hyper-objects. Hitting every problem with a hammer or a broom or with bleach. The world at large is a much more complicated/nuanced web, with a ton of diverse players who don’t deal with hyper-objects very well.
After hearing his (uninformed) opinion on inflation I want to burn the books written by him that I own.
Living in a country with +100% anual inflation rate his analysis was outrageous
There are lies, there are damned lies, and then there’s statistics. That quote has been around for decades.
wages havent kept place with inflation for over 50 years. Whoever trained this guy as an economist should offer a refund.
With regard to bias of skin in the game, it works both ways too, if you have all your net worth in USD or GBP or property, then you are hyper-positive about those assets, and down talk all other asset classes. You are then unable to see any positives of a new asset class, as it just appears like a threat on the horizon.
This is an underrated reply
I’m sure there’s a name for this…
I (female, 40) never wanted to have kids and don't have kids :) Very grateful that we are living now when parenthood is a choice.
Cool story bro
Yea, we will do the hard work of raising kids so when your old, there is a next generation to run things to make you comfortable. We don’t want you to burden yourself
@@willnill7946 thanks to people with selfish genes I'm glad I'm not contributing to the overpopulation and climate change.
Is this new "I am vegan"?
I never made a definite decision one way or the other on having kids (I'm a male). As a boy/young man that sort of thought was not front and center as I would guess it was for girls. Years passed and two kids came my way, and I loved being a father. But the real reward is two grandkids and third on the way. I know of zero grandparents that have regrets about having children.
I reflexively wanted to challenge the idea that blogs were less click baity and more positive but after thinking about it long form *most* blogs definitely don't have the velocity or vitriol that video or short form media have. Most actual content pushing solutions in any faction rn occur on substack
LOL.
I see my main comment vanished!! Who deleted it? Does Chris have a bot cleaning his comments and disinfecting skeptics and critics like me? Or is it just an issue with UA-cam? I see my most recent comment, but the more important comment I made earlier is invisible!!
I am not sure if he doesnt understand what inflation is or bad at explaining what he means. you cant get away with saying income also rise and left all other aspects of it out, such as savings. and even salaries doesnt catch up with inflation either, even if it has, there is delayed effect on that till next pay rise. even if your boss make salary adjustment the moment CPI disclosed, you already lost for a months worth of value.
It pisses me off that every "expert" states everybody else "doesn't understand inflation" and then states some "text book definition" like the text book came down from the mountain side. Currently people use the word inflation the way they use it. What I mean by that is that just because a dictionary definition says x doesn't mean that's how the word is commonly used in the present. When people use inflation they mean, general increases in the cost of living. It doesn't matter what the technical definition was 60 years ago in a textbook. Also his definition of inflation having to include wage increases is stupid, because inflation just wouldn't be a problem if everybodies wages also increased along with the price of goods and services. It would be a non issue. I find this pedantic redefining of words completely unhelpful and disingenuous. Sure agree on YOUR definition if it supports peoples understanding of your ideas but you the speaker are not an authority on the definition of words that EVEN EXPERTS APPARENTLY "GET WRONG"
My favourite “expert” was when the BBC asked that black black London taxi driver about Apple and some court verdict.
Too much doubt is as bad as too much believe
We are far better at coming up with arguments against other ideas than
The less frequently you check the news, the more important is what you read, and you start to distinguish the signal from the noise.
Expertise is an advantage if you're thinking clearly and you're not emotional, but once you're emotionally engaged expertise can be an active disadvantage
Is it cynicism to believe that most information disseminated is untrue? Or is that just realism?
Cynicism, my interpretation of realism would be something like “I believe this *could* be false but I’ll check their source, their methodology, how it’s funded, etc.”
People are being told what to think and what to say rather than how to think.
"We don't notice": damn straight!
Having ADHD is like having an invisible pickpocket that takes your stuff and makes it vanish into thin air!
And since screens and other instant gratification activities create more and more attention deficits.... minds are evaporating at an alarming rate...
12:30 Nope. Inflation is the increase (itself) in the money supply. You don't point at a full balloon ant call it inflation. Inflation is how it expanded. Rising prices are the result of inflation.
12:40 Nope. "the price of everything going up, by roughly the same amount, including your wages" STRETCHES the power of the word "roughly" so much, that he misses the point. It doesn't. And the people ( firms/ corporations / countries ) who get it first, get the most valuable dollars, and the people who get it last ( your grandma on SS/ people on fixed incomes and certainly people making minimum wage ) get the same dollars, but when they're worth less. Regular people salaries don't move at the speed of money markets. That's silly.
13:30 And not to get political here, but Vladimir Putin didn't "turn off the taps to the global energy system". He'll sell to anyone. He is. He'll sell to America right now. WE'RE blocking those sales... America and parts of NATO. Not to mention, this week ( I know this interview was a year ago ) Ukraine admitted that THEY blew up the Nord Stream pipeline to stop cheap energy from flowing to Europe. But, this isn't really hindsight knowledge - plenty of people knew Russia didn't blow up their own pipeline ( cuz that's dumb ).
In the "inflation" portion of this interview, Mr Harford is doing a lot of heavy lifting for the people who are actually making the price of your food go up. When your own federal government is competing with you in the credit markets, and YOU are the collateral, but you're not sure why bond yields are over 5% and interest rates are creeping higher, it's nice to have friendly economist types to help you understand that you're just to dumb to understand. But, eventually the tide goes out...
"The power of hate is enough to prevent childbirth temporarily." -G.I. Joe
@ 13mins, self harming sanctions is what he is not allowed to say..imho
"Putin turned off the gas," is a belief necessary to be employed at FT. A master of perception has picked a conclusion years downstream of other actions which led to that fact. The gas was on when pipeline was destroyed.
The problem isn't the statistics, it's the people who use them. I look less at the statistics than I do the person presenting them.
Computer models have a lot to answer for.
Why would or should the uk be okay with being colonised by other countries? It’s own women need to keep their bloodlines and what makes brits brits going
Sam Harris on Triggernometry is a prime example of what you're talking about here.
I think statistics just need to be “up to date”.
Now, if someone says: “that’s impossible, that’d require massive amounts of capital put towards it and constantly”.
To that, there is a very current-up-to-date example of an organisation that knows the value of these up-to-date statistics: Google.
If there’s a social benefit to children, voluntarily collect donations to fund those kids. Convince people that it’s in their best interests to fund those kids and you’ll get funding, don’t force us into your scheme to fix a very complicated problem with government force. You of all people should know how that power will be used. Before you know it there will be child benefit requirements: child must be jabbed, homeschooled child must attend LGBT inclusivity lessons, parent may not have history of hate speech on social media. Bad idea 👎
Uhhh what???? We have this already, at least in America. Everyone who has kids gets money from the government across the board. We homeschool our kids & still get the money. There's no requirements other than having kids and you can't make over 400,000 a year or something like that. So, I genuinely have no clue what you're talking about.
@@ShinyNix86 That is a good point and I’m surprised progressives haven’t threatened to pull this benefit yet (probably because they can threaten more important things like your job). The point is that you’re giving government bureaucrats another lever which can be used to control us. They cut off people’s power, fired people from jobs and restricted our travel this time, but in the next crisis they could easily threaten to pull this benefit too. Increased dependence on a government which wishes to micromanage our lives is not a good thing.
Sorry, I had to say it: Michael Emerson!
my wage did not go up...
Personally, I don't like the term "toxic cynicism". Great interview and topic, but the word toxic is so overused these days that it has become cliche' and actually has the effect of reducing the punch that is required to describe some condition that some other better descriptor might better serve. We need to stop using the word toxic unless it involves TOXIC substances.
The thing people miss about inflation is that profits are soaring. So the issue is corporate greed. Period. Dress it up however you want, this is fact. Monopolies are suffocating everyone.
The issue is central banks across the world printing 35% of each bank's respective currency over the past 3 years during a period of stagnating production and negative GDP growth. The US Dollar is at 30-year-highs despite inflation being massive because the Euro and the Yen are that much worse relatively speaking. Also, why wouldn't inflation be the cause of rising profits, not the effect? If there's more currency units in a jurisdiction, entities operating in that jurisdiction will need more of that currency to break even, leading to bigger numbers.
Hi Chris, big fan and love most if your interviews. I have to ask for the sake that it's distracting, why are you so close to the camera? It feels like you are right in my grill. Your head is literally twice the size of the guests.
I’m actually really far away from the camera, I just have a colossal head
Not distracting to this listener/viewer. Mesmerising.
About women having children/not having children: "We two are probably not the best people to ask" - thank you Mr Harford. I have found the likes of Mr Williamson, Peterson, et al, let alone Republican right wing et all pontificating the way they do on this topic often insulting, upsetting, patronising and bias. It is a deeply personal matter and each woman has her reasons, often beyond her control.
The discussion does not involve the reasons of individual women, but general overall trends. Whether or not people can detach themselves from the aggregate data does not discount the results of that data. Also, it's "biased", not "bias". I see this typo enough that I'm now not sure if people are aware that "bias" is a noun.
@@ryebr3ad Tone and opinion accompany these discussions. (Sorry for not giving 3000% focus to nouns versus adjectives in one youtube comment - things to do, there are things to actually do..)
@@yogawithdivya108 That it would require focus at all is a failing on your part.
"Tone and opinion" are all ad hominem attempts to discredit any discussion being had.
I understand how you might find those men’s comments patronising, but would you say it’s then also unreasonable for women to ever discuss men’s choices and behaviours, considering that, as women, they don’t understand the “lived experience” and nuanced personal circumstances of the men in question?
@@nf6386 Thanks for calmly asking your question. Of course men and women should be able to discuss the challenges and situation both find themselves in. But when it comes to a man's body plus a life changing decision that only he can make, I would never pronounce what he should do, as an individual or as a collective. "Entering in discussion with" is a different matter, but in these circumstances progress is to be gained more from listening.
If I may share an example (as you seem a reasonable person and I appreciate your question). I used to work for a charity in London that helps disadvantaged young men. Quite unique in their work. Helping marginalised teens and young men get back on track. Every single one of our project workers was, deliberately, a man. It would not work one bit to have employed female project or youth workers, I could write an essay on why but I think you'll get the meaning here. Thanks again for the enquiring question.
Sounds like Freakonmics
Your wages and cost if your labour is going up. What utter garbage.
Chris Jordanson
Who are these people "rejecting everything on the grounds it's got statistics in"? Please name names.
I'm a skeptic. I reject bad statistics, bad data, and bad methods in general. There's a lot of bad stats out there.
Hi Chris, I can serve as your only sample if you want to know how much sex people in their 20s have had since 2018. The answer is zero, haven't had sex or any romantic encounter since 2017. Hope that helps, even though I've doomed all of us as incels and have personally crashed the birth rates of every country. Cheers.
As a concerned single 30 something woman who is not having regular sex, I find that people in my situation are more conscious about not wanting to bring children into a (perceived) dying fkd up world (one reason), however, I'd be open to having children if I found the right partner (which is proving difficult not only because I'd be considered a successful independent woman), a partner who would want that life ie. Wanting to be committed to someONE and wanting to be a father, other factors that add to not having kids in this time of my life is a bit of selfishness (I love being on my own schedule, doing things I want to do) and lack time and patience to go through the process of finding the right partner.
But I know later in life I would to be surrounded by family etc. But in a world that breeds instant gratification and the yolo life.. it's hard to keep that vision burning, the world isnt encouraging that sort of behaviour too
I'm twice your age and it was, when we were young, just a forgone conclusion that we'd marry and have kids - and all of us did. Not all the marriages made it, obviously. Second marriages are common and blended families can be quite happy. Think about what you want your old age to look like... No children, no grandchildren pave the way for a potentially lonely life. Maybe that's OK for you. My point is what a difference a generation makes. My wife and I celebrate our 40th this year - a lot less consideration and consternation went into it, "hey you wanna get married?" "yeah sure"
@@craigwillms61 that's lovely, happy 40th anni! What an amazing milestone! And I guess that's a big thing, you grew up in an environment where that was the norm, when we're living in an environment where that's largely 'discouraged' and that the concept of the world is our oyster, is pretty real, we have access to the whole world and long term goals and long term thinking are the exception not the norm. And the sad thing is, that would be the most fulfilling thing we could pursue
What would be your best advice, considering that we live in a world that doesn't support these thoughtful, considered long term thinking and commitment particularly with relationships
@@iamchicharon Oh geez, I'm a dinosaur, I mean that literally, my kind will go extinct. That's the fate of the world since the devil has won. There is no more 'go forth and multiply'. The current generation is too afraid of the chaos and uncertainty marriage and children bring, but my God the beauty is in the journey not the destination. If happiness is the destination, that's just a place you visit once in a while, you do not stay. Find a man who wants to go on the journey and love him despite everything. He's out there, you might be surprised, and good luck... (climbing down off soapbox now)
@@craigwillms61 and yet dinosaurs are things we go to the ends of the Earth's to discover what wisdom they hold for us.
I love that about happiness, you only go there sometimes. And it's true, the chaos and uncertainty of that journey scares us, because we have so much control in our world and giving that up is so vulnerable.
Thanks for the vote of confidence and the wisdom shared, you should jump on that soapbox more often haha will have to let you know how this journey goes!
Interesting question about number of children women have. I’m 59. Thought I’d have a couple children. Reason I have none: lack of trustworthy male. Perhaps it’s my own problem of trust, but I saw so many friends struggle with fathers that weren’t responsible, caused problems, and they were then stuck dealing with those men that caused so much trouble in their lives. I saw more of that than men that were reliable good fathers. I am from a middle class family with parents that stayed married until I was 23. Well, here’s one data point😊
Yep, we have an epidemic of vvomen CHOOSING to settle down with the bad boy& popping out multiple children. Meanwhile the "good guy" is left sitting on the sidelines and/or has to jump through hoops. Long story short, this is a problem created entirely by vvomen.
Cracks in the edifice of shear reason.
If you both had children in their mid twenties you would know why young people are not having children. It’s because they can’t afford to buy a 3 bed house and do less paid work at the same time.
Cultural issues
there are ,liers ,dam liers an statistical liers
If you both had children in their mid twenties you would know why young people are not having children. It’s because they can’t afford to buy a 3 bed house and do less paid work at the same time.