LUNDIN MINING STOCK ANALYSIS - COPPER STOCK
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- Опубліковано 12 жов 2024
- Lundin mining is a copper stock and exposed to what can happen to the metal in the future. Here is a video on my in depth analysis.
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Thanks Sven! Terrific video as usual. I always learn something from you, but never more than when you're discussing mining companies. Cheers my friend...
thanks Scott. A thing I didn't mention is the risk of nickel prices affecting the Eagle mine and cashflows - something to add to the education:-))))
@@Value-Investing thanks
Copper prices and copper miners are approaching interesting levels, 25% additional decrease in copper prices should start to be interesting for miners such as Lundin mining and Boliden. Maybe it's time for a Sven update on copper miners?
:-)
Really helpful video Sven, I just got your book today and just finished the section about NevSun, just in time for another mining video.
Thanks again for all the quality research in the sectors no one is talking about!
thanks!, Enjoy the book!
Sven, Thanks for doing these mining stock analysis. Not many have been.
:-)
I'm getting into the discipline of rewatching your videos because it clears up the thought process into choosing the stocks. I'm sure you haven't seen this miner in detail until you noticed how they managed the Nevsun offer.
Really good break down. COPPER MOUNTAIN MINING CORP is one that I think is good too it looks to be at good value very little dept.
uh, that is a volatile one!
Thanks Sven :)
Only saw your comment now. Sold it actually as I did miss read, it does have some dept. Decided to look into lundin instead as I remembered you mentioning the company in this vid.
Warren Buffetts quick P/E x P/B calculation looks very good on this company. Where do you find the current copper price. Only seem to get the Scrap Metal price with google.
Nice Sven. I think i will start a position here now.
thanks for sharing- but keep in mind the company is significantly different than from this analysis!
Hi Sven. I have tried to replicate the model you show in minute 3:28 for Candelaria. The 24% tax for year 2022 has a significantly different value in my model. In my case, the PV(15%) for that year is 105 mm USD instead of 57. In addition, I understand that SUM(PV) is the direct sum of PV(15%) for the different years, as these values have already been discounted but, after making that calculation, the SUM(pV) is 435 mm USD. Maybe I made some error or misunderstood sth, but just wanted to make you know if that is not the case. As always, many thanks for your great videos!!
Hi Vicente, thanks, what I included there is the tax they don't pay because of the previous accumulated spending.
Great video, Sven!! I have one doubt. According to the balance sheet, Lundin Mining has 433 million of USD of long-term debt, but you haven´t considered it to calculate net cash. I noticed that there is a note explaining that the company has launched an offer to purchase the "Notes" and, therefore, I imagine that they will pack buy that debt. However, that will reduce the cash, won´t it? Thanks!!
yes! But I don't know how many will offer to sell the note back to them. Plus, the value of the other assets covers for the debt.
Still great and valuable information. Thanks for your efforts.
So nice of you
Hi Sven, Thanks for doing this analysis on Lundin. In my opinion one of the best miners out there. What are your thoughts about the Chapada acquisiton? I think its a typical move from Lundin, like they have proven in the past to buy mines under NAV. I'm, like you, very bullish on copper, so Chapada makes Lundin Mining even more appealing.
yes, typical Lunding - already investing in exploration and will likely make a great business out of it.
LOL the Ikea table!
Excellent video again, thank you. My current small copper play is TGB.
Well done Sven, 2 questions for you!
1- Lundin has more than a Billion dollar in cash and actively looking for M&A to strengthen its project pipeline (like their hostile attempt on Nevsun) so I expect their share price drops in short term if they can purchase anything in this expensive M&A market what is your thought on that?
2- I know you were a fan of Hudbay Mineral and they share price dropped significantly so what is your though on HBM? I know that in 2008 HBM tried to buy Lundin and even agreement was signed but stopped by HBM shareholder. with current HBM market cap of 1.3 Billion CND and their well advanced Rosemont project they can be a perfect M&A target (I am sure you are aware of all Warton story on HBM) so is HBM a good buy considering their operation, project pipeline and potential to geeting take over?
don't know if it will be expensive or not - depends on what lundin buys but history shows that they don't like to overpay:-)
I was never a fan of Hudbay - please don't judge on one video that explains one side of the story, plus it is an old video. There is a full report on my stock market research platform.
52w high 16.51 I bought a chunk recently at a mean price of 12.19. Want to buy more but it seems very expensive now.
Sven, soon you talk swedish in the videos.. zinkgruvan (zinc mine).
You save the best for the end, turqouise Hill?:)
TRQ is far from the best for me!
How do you feel about Lundin Gold? I like the Lundin Group, sorry if you have analyzed LUG before, but could not find any video.
just quickly looked at it in the past, nothing to report
@@Value-Investing Ok, Looks like it's maybe breaking out from 40,00 in Stockholm and production is suppose to start in 19...
I'll accept your valuation at 4.36 then apply a discount of roughly 30 percent, And buy it at 3.25-3.50
I'll buy that too!
@@Value-Investing you are a man of your word. You actually bought a significant amount of Lundin @ around 3.23 USD as said on 16 March 2020! You are consistent in what you do and say!
Great video my man!
thanks!
Hi Sven, i want to make you a question. To analise stocks like you do , and if i'm thinking to go to university , what area should i choose? Economy or Accounting? Or something else? Whats your advice? Thanks!
accounting and law:-) I think you get what is necessary there and the economy part too.
the law part is more difficult eheh meanwhile i think i will start reading "Accounting for dummies" LOL
Hi Sven thanks for this video.
Could you explain what is "Life-of-mine?"
Why does it increase in the graph?
life of mine means for how long will you mine your property - additional discoveries can make it longer
Lundin Mining or Lundin Gold? :) Which do you prefer and why? ;)
The Lundin´s have a great track record in oil and mining industri. Have you looked at lundin gold and the fruta del north project in Equador? Really good grades at almost 10g/t and massive ore body, but also massive taxes i ecuador. But I think they will have a good chance on prospecting the area around fruta del north, not much have been done in the past.
Fun fact: zinkgruvan has been in production now since 1857.
they know how to go around with taxes, those are 74% in Norway on oil
1857 - amazing:-)))
Hi Sven, would you please make an update for Lundin mining? The forecast miss was insignificant though stock impacted severely.
I don't worry about those short term fluctuations with miners:-) That is normal.
Omggg Sven, please compare this to AMI:ASX!
Hey Sven!
A question about the secular uptrend in copper extraction prices.
Do you have/can you recommend any analysis/review of emerging technologies in copper extraction? Or maybe emerging copper alternatives for specific technologies?
Thanks.
haven't heard about crazy improvement, look at RIo's issues in Mongolia
@@Value-Investing Thanks Thanks
Good pick. Price 20/12/19 is $7.70
yes I know:-))))))
Where did you find the future capex forecast chart? Been looking it for over hour can't find anywhere. Is there a way to calculate future capex yourself or make some assumptions or do we just have to trust management words?
it was in some presentation
Sven, is it clever to buy Lundin mining at the end of an economic cycle? If you look what the stock price did in 2007-2008?
that is a good question:-) The answer is: what will you do if we see another 2008-2009?
Sven, does your research platform give suggestions on which stocks may be a good buy and which aren't? Or does it just present information. Thank you.
Re3iRtH yes the platform includes recommendations
@@DrJCEIBS Ok, thanks. What's your assessment of the program? Good for a busy person who finds stocks and researching them boring but still wants to invest a little part of his portfolio into alternative stocks? I'm 80% in real estate equity.
Re3iRtH i find i good supplement for qualified ideas and followups. Easily worth the fee.
I have a model portfolio with portfolio exposure on the stocks I hold!
Hi Sven, I think I have gained an awesome amount of knowledge about market and economics from your videos and references such as Ray Dalio. Hats off for your work and really appreciate it.
This is a little off-topic, but I thought I would comment on your recent post. As I wanted to check your opinion on moving to bear market mutual funds such as Pimco(PSSAX) and Grizzly short fund (GRZZX) in current market situation?
If you have any questions for me, please let me know. Thanks.
have no idea about the structure of those funds:-(
#asksven: I own some stocks from Lundin Mining. It's quite volatile, right.
But can you give an estimate for the leverage regarding the "fair price" to the copper price?
.
I just did my conservative analysis, plenty of downside if copper prices go down in the next year or two as their production increases. ON the upside, Candelaria is not that of a low cost producers so the margins could be much higher.
thx
Hey Sven, can u do an update on this stock?
my update: I SOLD TOO EARLY :-((( but will do soon as the price is going down!
@@Value-Investing ty, u think the price will go down? I am asking because the financials seems to be quite good to me.
Zinkgruvan Ikea table! hahahaha!
What do you think of Excelsior Mining?
ah, after the management tried 5 times to have me make a video and write an article about them, I kind of stay away:-)
Yeah, that sounds a bit desperate. However, the valuation looks pretty attractive though.
Current market cap $140m and NPV is $807m ($2.75 copper).
They have secured financing, construction is in progress and production expected in 2020. Most importantly, low all-in cost of $1.23/lb cu. Even if copper price drop to $2.2/lb, their NPV is $495m so there's still at 3.5x upside.
It would be great to know what you think of it.
Hi, Sven, I have a question about the "Total Value $4.36" at the end of the video. Does that mean that given your present value calculations of Lundin's mines and potential prices of copper, a fair valuation of the stock price is US$4.36?
yes, that is my idea over the long term and a 15% discount rate. However, all things change fast in the mining environment:-)
How can US investors buy this without outrageous fees? The cheapest I have found is Fidelity with a $19 fee + 1% of the purchase value. That is insane
there must be other brokers
I had looked at the 2018 annual statement, and with a 6% growth estimate, 50% margin of safety, the price for this stock is about $1. I will redo my math when the 2019 statement becomes available. Also, their long term debt looks crazy. $7 million one year, and $985 another year? It just doesnt make sense. Not buying it.
I think you are looking at the wrong stock - the numbers you are looking at are not Lundin mining :-) Be careful there are 3 Lundin stocks - copper then gold, then oil and also diamonds:-)
No video about 1300 drop in DOW? Discuss your losses as a value investor in the last 2 days
yesss
happy larry This is not a daily CNBC news show. A channel about Very Long Term Deep Value Investing does not care about daily emotions. There are other channels for that. And otherwise, instead of commanding what others should do, you could also set the example and make that vid yourself.
I’m a Value investor who follows Sven. I am happy to discuss my losses. Apart from Facebook, I don’t have any.
I looked at the Dow over the last 18 months and gradually reduced any positions I did have. To me it was fairly obvious the US was very expensive and the returns weren’t worth the risk. Will the DOW crash, who knows and who cares .I have a small loss in Facebook, but still consider it a bargain, so are not concerned. In fact I will buy more if it goes lower. With a balance portfolio some stocks go up, some down, that’s the idea. But I have not put my eggs in one basket. It balances out. My annual return this year is around 14% overall, not wow but steady and consistent.This I believe is the point of Sven’s video today, buying a hedge. Good luck with your investments, I genuinely hope you haven’t lost too much money
In a hedged Portfolio you will have No loss in total ... I get gold Dividend next week. This Money IS Up inverse etf too, Stocks down you Jeep your Capital alive. Correction to Trump bobl will Go ob Shit.
long time horizon, however, video today about the market.
Sven we need you on the news on the market. We need your approach.
coming today! 100% Sven Carlin in this market!
Check out Mission money roast my Depot one of your followers got roasted bad goodwill for you because he explained everything you do totally wrong :/
Nr. 3
Unless Sven speaks German it won't be of any help to him. However it's obvious that the guy didn't have any idea about what he was doing which created the wrong impression of Sven shilling stocks.
Hi, a lot of things misunderstood there. That will always happen:-) Let's continue with my work!