URGENT: The FED Cancels Rate Cut, Market Plummets, Major Changes Ahead
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- Опубліковано 7 чер 2024
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Inflation -
When you calculate the cost of ALL items, inflation increased from 3.1%-3.4% - driven higher by one single category: Housing. Since this is typically driven by one-year lease rates, you’ll see that inflation has actually been BELOW 2% for almost an entire year when "Shelter" is excluded.
Soft Landing -
The more time goes on, the closer we’re getting to the illusive “soft landing,” where inflation gracefully comes down without a recession or rising unemployment. However, according to a report, "A soft landing means the top 1% gets record stock prices while you get stuck with the most unaffordable housing market ever, along with permanent price increases & record credit card debt.”
The 2024 Stock Market - Check Out AWealthOfCommonSense Blog: awealthofcommonsense.com/2024...
In all but one case in 2007, all-time highs led to even more all-time highs one year later - and, besides the 1960s and 1970s era of stagflation - 3, 5, and 10 year total returns were also positive. As Ben points out, “The average one, three, five and ten year total returns following new highs were +16%, +27%, +59% and +206%, respectively.”
It's also worth noting that some data disagrees with this, pointing out that - since 1990, every time the Federal Reserve lowers rates, the market drops. That's because The Federal Reserve hasn’t dropped rates unless they absolutely need to - so market drops have often coincided with rate cuts.
The 2024 Housing Market -
According to a recent report from Zillow, buyers are finally seeing some relief with lower mortgage rates and Sellers’s rate locks are appearing to wear off, with signs that they’re coming back to the market. Case in point: “A recent Zillow survey of homeowners found that 21% are considering selling their home within the next three years, up from 15% a year ago.”
On top of that, it’s also reported that values are actually beginning to fall. For instance, “home values only climbed month-over-month in just three of the 50 largest metro areas in December.”
Although, the downside is that - for potential homebuyers, “listings are still going under contract in about a month - which is 50% faster than pre-pandemic norms.”
As far as prices are concerned…they say that “the demand for housing will remain high, based on a large share of Millennial first-time homebuyers looking to buy homes, which will push home prices up. We forecast home prices to increase 2.8% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025 nationally.”
It’s also anticipated that 2024 is going to be a “pivot year,” where we're going to see homebuilders meet that pent-up demand for single-family and multifamily housing,” adding some much-needed supply back onto the market.
The January 2024 Federal Reserve Rate Cut -
The FED decided to pause rates for the foreseeable future - although, in terms of when the highly anticipated "rate cut" is going to happen, they’re leaving it “To Be Determined." Jerome Powell recently “reflected a growing sense that inflation is under control and growing concern about the risks that "overly restrictive" monetary policy may pose to the economy.”
Reuters also pointed out that they no longer included the “phrase ‘unacceptably high’ to describe inflation, while laying out reasons why they felt inflation would continue to fall.” All but “TWO Fed officials see the benchmark policy rate lower by the end of 2024 than it is now, with a majority of policymakers seeing it trimmed by at least three-quarters of a percentage point.”
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-Jerome Powell Today: "An interest rate cut as soon as in March is unlikely."
-Here is a link containing the source material for each piece of research cited. I do my best to make my videos as accurate as I can, and the additional resources should help anyone who wants to look into them further - enjoy! docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FVp_cvDUTy39qigQWE8dCx1kY0GD9cqU5rPrjWazr3c/edit?usp=sharing
When's the next portfolio review coming?
The thing is about inflation rates when categorizing everything together is some things have such a high profit margin but some items don't really need to change pricing cuz inflation, and some do because greed, majority of items have big profit margins It's hard to inflate it that bad The fact it's increasing so bad Is something more serious going on I think it's because Joe biden's is in office
😂😂😂 I don't believe any of the cooked Suffay numbers cooked up by this government.
CPI: REAL 13%
UNEMPLOYMENT: Revised higher every month.
@GrahamStepan you see these bots?
soooooooooo I'm still screwed with trying to buy a house in florida lol....got it
Too many bots in the comments , can’t enjoy real ones.
I raised the hammer high when your first pick was AMS90K$.. Been collecting this bear cycle.
2.6k bots
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Thank you Graham for all the research you put into your videos
Graham ! Just started viewing your content , I know .. all late ! It’s literally changing my mindset , God bless you buddy , keep up the wonderful work and truly thank you . I’m really excited to see what is next for you , thank you for sharing your gift .
you had me replay the opening like five times thought I was going crazy
Just a comment to say thank you for the quality content.
Glad you enjoy it!
Love the summary in video description
You went for a Datejust, nice. Like the El Primero too.
thanks for the advice. intelligent young man right here
thank you for watching!
Thank you.
I appreciate your content.
Great video and awesome information. Not great news but broken down in a way I can easily understand! Thanks.
So detailed and legit never a dull moment 😊
Housing will only further accelerate with rate cuts.
Lower mortgage rates = More people buying = Price going up.
Good stuff. Thanks Graham!
you got it!
No one was expecting the Fed to cut rates in January. Investors are a bunch of idiots. Like a herd of sheep.
March was the month they were expecting a cut, not January but I agree the market was pushing wishful thinking on that one.
I was disappointed they didn't cut, went all in on QQQ
Investors? Or traders? I think you mean traders
Let me guess you don't own anything
dumb money
Love your channel! Thank you for the information🎉
My three favorite channels: Graham Stephan, Stock Brotha, & How Money Works. Make my week complete! 🔥 🔥 🔥
Amazing! Didn't know dropbox can do all of this... first ad i dont skip! 5:36
Thank you ❤
That watch looks nice
Always impressed at how fast these vids get posted/edited
I spend a LOT of time in advance to get it out / accurate in time!
most of it was made prior to todays news, the final segment was made today after the news.
he is in the know. it should be expected
What the Fed said today is NOT surprising. Been predicted for months now. 95% of this video probably written well before today’s announcement.
what vid? just a guy shouting and making cuts every 10 secs on bogus info. I could not go past the first two min.
I love your channel Graham. I’ve learned so much from you over the years
I appreciate that! Glad to hear :)
This is gonna be a crazy year for digital assets now with BlckTken300 right? We already are set in for the bullrun anyway and if companies like them enter the field and make their own asset which will be integrated widely and used by the mass then we are on the bottom of the mountain with only one way which is upwards
Can't believe we got jpow to say no cuts march. Ty ber gods
Thanks Graham🙏🙏
The force is strong with this one
not surprised, already expected this. but not sure about the cuts unless there is serious coercion
Great content graham 🔥
Ready to buy when it drops
😂 For next 10 years dropping
Higher rates is the real working man’s leverage.
How so?
HerAaalllded 😂 It’s ”HAIR-al-did” Graham
Great control like always
We should be able to write off Inflation on our taxes
That would be nice!
Inflation is taxes
Agreed, there’s nothing worse than getting taxed on interest when you’re still, ultimately losing money to inflation…
Brandon voters should pay reparations to normal people
100%
Live for these videos, and of course, financial audit ❤
THANKS!!
I'm really not a permabear but I always love when the market is irrational and gets a reality check, this time on their high expectations for rate cuts
Hey thanks! Recommendations for bank accounts for kids? The apps designed for kids and chores… etc?
I just want the return of consistency and predictability.
Lmao, but same.
Great news. Hopefully this makes the housing market less hot so things are not getting sold within 3-5 days😊
There is no way these numbers are right. My groceries have almost doubled in price and rent has raised between 50 to 70% in Orlando area. Idk where they get these inflation numbers but I call BS!
graham has lost his mind
@superkart1913 I'm not saying it's Graham, but more the Feds pumping these numbers out like it's facts.
We all know damn well inflation isn't that low.
I was thinking the same thing. This inflation rates are not real. Govnt doesn't publish real number. My rent, my groceries, my "consumer basket" went up 30+%
its amazing how much bullshit people fall for. The rich think it's 3% but the rest know it's way more.@@SprayArtNYC
Yup all you need to do is go to a grocery store and look at the prices Milk was 1.48 in 2015 now its 3.48 and 2lb block cheese from 3.98 to 7.32
Guys my man! Missed ya~ 😁
- Graham
LOLL did anyone catch the "whats up graham, its guys here""
As someone who has multiple securities licenses this channel saves me so much research time🙌🏽
I like a balance of You, Andre, Kevin and Jaspreet... Oh and Ramsey😂
Money guy show is far better than Ramsey. They aren't radicals when it comes to debt and bettering your financial life
@@nicksaylor3288 Actually, Ramsey's radicalism doesn't bother me, whether I agree with him or not, I don't have an issue with his stance. Also it's good to listen to varying points of view.
Which Kevin are you talking about?
@@johnlazo4034 meet kevin
@@MrSlm1982 reason I don't support him is he literally took advantage of poor religious people back in early 2000s. There are better people that give financial advice than him. I would recommend you check out the money guy show. They take some of the good aspects of Dave but they aren't out of touch like Dave is
Hyperinflation coming on select items. Asia ocean freight is taking double the time to arrive because of Red Sea issues. So demand will remain the same but companies will operate with plenty shortages, therefore by increasing the cost of supply (or stagnant) while increasing the profitability and market share. Resulting in market push or demand destruction beginning on specialty market sectors. As a result, eventually centralizing the demand to big companies who can afford the cut of profits as prices begin to stabilize a year from now on.
You too bro. I'm honestly so busy for the competition I totally forgot lol
:D
My rent went up 26% from August ‘23 to January ‘24!! I hope that means it went down for some people, somewhere. It’s definitely not going anywhere but up in the northwest!!
Thank u😊
Thanks for the great video!
You got it!
This made me more constipated as I am doing my business in the bathroom. Thanks Graham.
Can you talk about curing age please? Why no one talks about it
Love how Jerome said he couldn't say there would deffo be any cuts in March but everything else happens in March still 😂
The russell is always lower due to it paying higher rates to borrow. Mid caps are better they have growth and they have lower cost to borrow to fuel the growth . Large caps have lowest cost of funds but lack growth
Thanks for the video stephen. I hat no idea what a rate cut was before i clicked on this video.
Thanks for watching
Hi Graham! Hope youre doing well!
You, too!
the rate of inflation will not improve because the Panama cannel is running dry and shipping thru the cannel is down 60% which will drive up prices.
Graham, what are your thoughts on the Panama Canal drying and how that could affect inflation as well as the broader economy? Would love to see a video on this!
if housing is a 1/3rd of spending then it should be weighed that much in CPI as well.
5:01 ... I’ve never heard “heralded”, pronounced that way.
maybe I've been wrong my whole life lol
Because it’s not pronounced that way 😂it’s hair-al-did.
When is the better time to buy a home with a mortgage this year
"What's up Graham? It's guys here." Nice start to the vid!
I hope so. A cut in rates would be great.
Anyone else all of a sudden notice the zoom ins as Graham speaks
I hate the rain on everybody’s parade here, but here’s how it works: when the Fed announces, they’re going to cut rates it always rallies the market. When the cuts actually happen it tanks😂every time.
So far, that's been correct. BUT - there's usually been a severe reason for them to lower rates.
@@GrahamStephan are you agreeing in a contradictory statement? What?
This is absolutely correct. The rate cuts don’t happen until it’s an urgent situation because truth be told there are numerous drawbacks to low interest rates. Some people think inflation is primarily a function of Covid social and supply disruption largely, and the money people saved in lockdown, not stimulus activity, so inflation may come down, but as indebted and tapped out of cash Americans are, a serious downturn is likely this year. But the cycle is elongated likely due to all that stimulus which did in all actuality flood the economy and banks
@@GrahamStephan yeah and I think the severe reasons are piling up.
assets will go up... car prices up another 10% in 2025
First couple words: "What's up Graham, it's guys here" lol!
Graham Stephan almost nailed it with the conditions for rate cuts. The Federal Reserve resort to rate cuts when the financial markets become illiquid (bad).
With 4.61 million subscribers (and those who aren't subscribed who comment), I applaud your goal to reply to as many as possible. I usually watch someone for a while before they earn my subscription. You are almost there. Another great video.
Graham is there anyway to use my student loans to my benefit?
Thanks G
The real question is what in the world do Americans do about the buying up of property by corporations?
Thoughts on the mother of all short squeezes?
How is FOOD seasonal?
I don't understand the market drop today. Rate cuts were expected in MAY.... not January. My take on this is buy the dip. The market freaked over what was basically a no news day.
Awesome. Yeah, my portfolio went down today too. So naturally, I bought more. Thanks for another great video Graham.
Great to hear!
Good 👍
How do you do your research on this stuff? Im wanting to be an agent myself so any tips will help!
No Rise either..So Cool
Yeah, they've made it pretty clear that they've reached the peak federal funds rate
I heard a speaker say more banks will go out of business if the interest rates go up.
The best insurance coverage in America for people over age 65 is to have Medicare parts A and B and Tricare For Life as your supplement.
Howdy Graham, a little over a month ago I signed up for my real estate classes and you wished me luck, tomorrow I take the last exam so I can take my state and national to finally get my license! Seems like a really wonky time to become an agent... but hey if I can survive in this time then I can make it anywhere right? Just like you! Thanks for everything you do, I hope to use the knowledge to make sound investments this year!
cancellation of a rate cut? I don't remember the Fed ever calling for a rate cut in March. This was wishful thinking of the market.
Well they did.. but looking like they’re retracting that statement
its a click bait again..... LOL
@@brettmontgomery350 No they did not.
Food costs are up a steady 30-40%
Graham, what watch is that? 👀
Well we already had a recession a while back when we had two Q of reduced GDP, they just changed the definition.
The same way they changed the definition of "vaccine" so they could include the "clot shot".
*The Fed playing games with people's feelings like yoyos* 😂
Maybe it has something to do with the tax bill being passed. There's going to be a lot of refunds that will cause a lot of spending which will cause more inflation. Getting ahead of the bs.
This bull market forecast is a cap
Great video
Thanks!
So how does this affect the "buy and hold" investors? Oh wait, it doesn't. Market doing what market does.
As a professional in the power industry; prices are just starting to rise and will continue to rise for years to come. Why? As most things it’s really complicated for a multiplicity of reasons. In short solar power has destabilized the market. Solar is limited by the sun and must be backed up by other forms of generation. Generation derived from steam cannot react fast enough. So any generation from steam like natural gas runs all day with little to no revenue and that drives prices up at night. There are a dozen other reasons prices are on their way up. It seems that power generation is under attack on multiple fronts. Given our current trajectory higher power prices are an inevitable and maybe even lack of supply.
When you mentioned the convenient rate cut before the pandemic i looked up my country Australia and its abit suspicious june 2019 .25 rate cut to 1.25 then july to 1.0 then October to .75 pretty convenient considering the rate hadn't moved since 2016
I got to experience this with futures. I shorted ES with 10 contracts and rode it most of the way down. It was great!
The market is high so i should just hold all my money until a pull back?
Would love your take on how all of this will impact tech VC activity. It's been mediocre at best past couple years. : (
It'll be tough - money has tightened up by a LOT recently
@@GrahamStephan Agreed! Any signs you'd look for for when an uptick may happen??
Hey Graham you should use white gloves in one of your vids. With that much hand movement it would be hilarious lol
Keep on buying until you retire.
:)
Amazing video, FYI, you started with “What’s up Graham, it’s Guys here.”
The freaking scammers and bots 😬😡🤬
You worked very hard on this video for the market to break ATH again 😂 I’m just kidding, great work