Depends on your time horizon. If you have a longer outlook, say 10 years and you are well diversified in say an S&P ETF, really have nothing to fear. If you have a 1 year time horizon you will always be fearful of pump and dumps.
Biggest difference now - aside from the literally unmentionable true national debt - biggest difference is the spx is now "float weighted" rather than "capitalization weighted" - both are much more deceptive than actual price weighted like DJIA. I would say the float weighted dynamics are very conducive for a boom bust dynamics and the boom seems exhausted. They're burning the walls to heat the house. I would be very cautious piling in the crowded environment after the literal series of central planned taxpayer funded buying frenzies. The stock market is not always a friendly place. Bull markets are like tornadoes and even dead birds fly in tornadoes. Good luck. And you know for sure I definitely appreciate this channel too. You're really good and appreciate all you do. I knew you spent a long time gathering and compiling and putting everything together for these videos. I didn't know it was that time consuming but I definitely believe you and definitely appreciate you. Have a great weekend.
Because most financial influencers only know how to peddle fear for views and clicks, they don't really trade, nor care about their viewers who follow their nonsense losing money either.
I see that 15.4% of your geographical exposure is Argentina. I don't think I have seen anybody talking about investing there, though it would be an interesting topic.
Yes Argentina is the best performing international stock market so far this year, however my positions in that country and research is only available to paid members.
😂 day trading is like a long pc gaming session but next level. No one should be that razor focused on the screen for the whole time the market is up. Moderation.
Biggest difference now - aside from the literally unmentionable true national debt - biggest difference is the spx is now "float weighted" rather than "capitalization weighted" - both are much more deceptive than actual price weighted like DJIA. I would say the float weighted dynamics are very conducive for a boom bust dynamics and the boom seems exhausted. They're burning the walls to heat the house. I would be very cautious piling in the crowded environment after the literal series of central planned taxpayer funded buying frenzies. The stock market is not always a friendly place. Bull markets are like tornadoes and even dead birds fly in tornadoes. Good luck. And you know for sure I definitely appreciate this channel too. You're really good and appreciate all you do. I knew you spent a long time gathering and compiling and putting everything together for these videos. I didn't know it was that time consuming but I definitely believe you and definitely appreciate you. Have a great weekend.
you talk like everything is wonderful. The gdp is predicted to decline in Q3 2024, Q4 2024, Q1 2025, Q2 2025. The index of Leading Economic Indicators has been in negative territory since 2022. On 9/29, the fed funds futures say there is a 53% chance the fed cuts 50bps in November. The fff is saying the economy is in trouble if a 50bps cut is needed.
Your reversal signals have been bang on in the past, Jared! Thanks for the heads up on gold and index reversal signals. China stocks looking a bit stretched - any short term reversal signals yet?
Thanks Millie, yes we're getting short term reversals on Chinese ETFs too, so we could see a pullback next week. But these short term massive volume momentum thrust signals that I'm also getting bodes well for the medium term outlook. Keep in mind, never rely on 1 indicator alone, they should always be used as part of an overall strategy. Enjoy your weekend!
thinking small pullback in October as people are going to think about taking profits before the election, but we'll see. US economic data has to remain stable until then
The Fed has been speaking 60 times a week to keep people positive. Real world sucks right now if you're not rich. The job report is gonna shock, IMO. I am in a corporate job in NYC, not some backwater, it's all hiring freezes, layoffs, outsourcing to India, not replacing people who quit, I'm shocked whenever someone mentions an actual job being created. But who knows, maybe BLS will do more "seasonal adjustments"
I definitely will next time Troca! I just barked out the top 6 countries my viewers come from. I've actually got viewers from over 50 countries around the world. Thanks for your support!
Great video. thank you for bringing the content forward, I watch these from start to finish. I would like to share a unique spin on Bollinger bands where I created a tool to show multiple sets at the same time. using the 4h, 1D and 1W together shows a beautiful roadmap. I know everyone has there favorite tool. But this really shows a great visual for me. I'll share if of interest. Not here to peddle my warez, really appreciate what you do here. Right now, ES/ SPX/ Spy bumping top of Week and day bands. The 4h, Day, and week are in bollinger squeeze.
“Economic historians usually consider the catalyst of the Great Depression to be the devastating Wall Street Crash. However, some dispute this, seeing the crash less as a cause of the Depression and more a symptom of the rising nervousness of investors partly due to gradual price declines caused by falling sales of consumer goods (as a result of overproduction because of new production techniques, falling exports and income inequality, among other factors) that had already been underway as part of a gradual depression.”
Just remember you don't actually own a Chinese company when you buy Chinese stock, not when you do it in America anyways. It doesn't mean it can't be profitable, but it does mean there is some level of risk there that is not present in US stocks.
you are forgetting how AI has changed the game, potentially increasing the productivity of companies by many times, instead of relying on Manpower and increasing wages. its unlikely anything in history, and trying to look for a pattern to see how the stock market will do in the future is potentially erroneous because of that. :)
I know that, I'm an AI bull, and I have been since I first made a video back in January last year saying I think an AI bull market has started ua-cam.com/video/ryhkO7slahM/v-deo.htmlsi=K_o_pMsmo3C4FOsd
Cheers mate. Vix spiked and has been under decent accumulation for the last month. I know you're bullish mate but apart from commodities I disagree, we may have seen the start of a blow off top and a nasty correction Mag 7 will be the undoing, every time most of the gains are wrapped up in a handful of companies it led to a solid correction or crash. In my opinion the only comparison to the current situation is the industrial revolution or the rail/oil rushes
Mag 7 are no longer leading, it's a global bull market, most indicies are at or near all time highs, same with sectors. The railroad secular bull market went on for 70 years, so if you're comparing the current technology secular bull market with that, then we're not even halfway through!
What happens if it never recovers, like most leveraged ETFs eventually don't because of their built-in decay? YANG as a 3x leveraged bearish China ETF is actually down 70% over the last 3 years, when the China stock market is down 60% in that same time, so even a bad bear market resulted in a massive loss for it. Would you ever take a loss or just keep adding to it?
All Time Highs will continue. Nvidia to 200 ny mid October. Tesla to 300 in taxi event run up. Bears and shorts are covering and toast. Wild run yo. September will end green first time in forever
@@Click-Capital this is a post 50 basis point cut October at aths in an inflationary environment. Recession priced in soon. Let’s see what happens. 5750-6000 S&P before sell off. Take note. Topping tail on Dow today. Tons of distribution into rallies at market open this week. 👀
When others are bullish its smart to be bearish i dont get all this news time and time again this is when stupid people get dumped on. Happens always and will continue to always happen.
I usually invest boomer stocks and we're (also) in a consumer staples bubble. Even some utilities are bubbly. Had to sell some since they ALWAYS nosedive after 2 weeks at this level. Always
4:20 I obviously can't speak for other US consumers & retail investors, but I suspect it's less a matter of "sensitivity", and more matter of "disinterest." For the last couple of decades, Americans have had practically no alternative to buying Chinese goods. (That's our own fault in various ways; I don't mean to blame China.) With recent hopes of a budding opportunity for some deglobalization, or at least some production redistribution, it does feel a bit regressive to be looking for new reasons to send money to China when the markets are teeming with so many excellent investment opportunities elsewhere.
Chinese stocks boom won’t last. Especially the casino stocks. If you’ve been to Macau years ago and visit again recently, u will see Macau isn’t what it was before
I was right on the 50 cut and I think we are in a corrective rally currently which will lead to very much blood like so much blood many people will wish that they never heard of the word stock market but I don't believe we're quite to the end of the corrective rally
@@Click-Capital well if they have been cooking the books heavily over at Nvidia we can see all hell break loose in a very short amount of time. I'm still holding some penny stocks that have been brutally beat over years that have tech for the future. I really believe the dead internet Theory
@@Click-Capital I watch a bunch of UA-cam almost every single day and almost everybody is still saying long. I pulled out of big caps and doubled my account... No leverage. If the Dems that cried saying Trump was gonna start a war push one more 8 Billion dollars in weapons button we are effed world wide. Side note I've seen a lot of military planes flying around here in the mid west. Much more than normal and C 130s flying low AF here in America. Might push for Marshall law and suspend the elections...
As much as I would love to see it, I doubt there will be a SpaceX IPO. It's too easy to make money from keeping it private, they already sell shares to different large funds
I'm not sure about that, Elon's goal isn't to maximize profits but rather achieve his life goal of making humanity multi-planetary for which he needs big capital to do so. What normally happens when they're private, is they raise capital via VCs and the like, then they all cash in when they go public, which I would be surprised if they don't IPO by 2028-29, as that will give them a huge amount of capital to really expand, which they need.
@@Click-Capital The fact that Elon's goal isn't to maximize profit is exactly the reason why he doesn't want to go public - he doesn't want to have to deal with shareholders and short term profit making, which I think buying twitter has made him even more risk averse to. And money certainly isn't the limiting factor these days, the VCs have put in plenty of money. People have been saying SpaceX is going to go public next year for the last ten years. I'd love to be wrong though!
@@Click-Capital personally, everyday is a 50/50. I really don’t think the current administration will let a recession happen until later this year. Which theoretically means all time highs until the election
Thank you for spending 4-5 hours to bring us these market updates.
My pleasure Max, doing them helps me become a better investor too! Enjoy your weekend 😎
@@Click-Capital likewise 🍻, cheers
Thanks for keeping us up to date Jared! Enjoy the weekend 😎
My pleasure Frederik, you too mate!
in October 1929, the cap/gdp ratio was 178%. Now it is 200%
Bullish
@@Click-Capital😂
hate being in cash right now but just feels like it should pop soon
Same lol, I’m too scared 😢
I understand
Depends on your time horizon. If you have a longer outlook, say 10 years and you are well diversified in say an S&P ETF, really have nothing to fear. If you have a 1 year time horizon you will always be fearful of pump and dumps.
why not buy the vix?
You just have to wait another week or 2 before the start of the bear in EVERYTHING. Start buying below a 50% correction probably below 60%.
Thank you. We appreciate the time you put into these
You're welcome Shane, glad you enjoy them.
Biggest difference now - aside from the literally unmentionable true national debt - biggest difference is the spx is now "float weighted" rather than "capitalization weighted" - both are much more deceptive than actual price weighted like DJIA. I would say the float weighted dynamics are very conducive for a boom bust dynamics and the boom seems exhausted. They're burning the walls to heat the house. I would be very cautious piling in the crowded environment after the literal series of central planned taxpayer funded buying frenzies. The stock market is not always a friendly place. Bull markets are like tornadoes and even dead birds fly in tornadoes. Good luck.
And you know for sure I definitely appreciate this channel too. You're really good and appreciate all you do. I knew you spent a long time gathering and compiling and putting everything together for these videos. I didn't know it was that time consuming but I definitely believe you and definitely appreciate you. Have a great weekend.
attention is a form of currency so pay our guy a bit of love with a like button for this exquisitely distilled content. no one does it better
Thank you brother, much appreciated!
QQQ red candles next 2 weeks
Why do you think so?
@@Click-Capital QQQ broke support 486. If qqq closes above 489.5 -490 I sell my Tqqq small profit.
@@Click-Capital Broke 490 and 486 just now in after hours. Career in aviation terrible typer
All good, which watch key levels next week!
Weekly is bearish
brand new investor... this is the best channel to have found
That’s great to hear, welcome!
From Australia. Watch your videos every day. 🤙
Thanks mate, glad to hear it
why do we have so many negative videos of crash and recession. Yet the consumer confidency keeps increasing every month.
It's called corrupt govt lies, propaganda and Insanely loose monetary policy. Don't fight it.
Because most financial influencers only know how to peddle fear for views and clicks, they don't really trade, nor care about their viewers who follow their nonsense losing money either.
What he said, fear sells. People are drawn to the fear...
I trade short cycles. Daytrading is for the birds.
True story
Too many short term taxes
I see that 15.4% of your geographical exposure is Argentina. I don't think I have seen anybody talking about investing there, though it would be an interesting topic.
Yes Argentina is the best performing international stock market so far this year, however my positions in that country and research is only available to paid members.
😂 day trading is like a long pc gaming session but next level. No one should be that razor focused on the screen for the whole time the market is up. Moderation.
Agreed!
Biggest difference now - aside from the literally unmentionable true national debt - biggest difference is the spx is now "float weighted" rather than "capitalization weighted" - both are much more deceptive than actual price weighted like DJIA. I would say the float weighted dynamics are very conducive for a boom bust dynamics and the boom seems exhausted. They're burning the walls to heat the house. I would be very cautious piling in the crowded environment after the literal series of central planned taxpayer funded buying frenzies. The stock market is not always a friendly place. Bull markets are like tornadoes and even dead birds fly in tornadoes. Good luck.
And you know for sure I definitely appreciate this channel too. You're really good and appreciate all you do. I knew you spent a long time gathering and compiling and putting everything together for these videos. I didn't know it was that time consuming but I definitely believe you and definitely appreciate you. Have a great weekend.
Thanks, appreciate your insights and support. Enjoy your weekend too.
you talk like everything is wonderful. The gdp is predicted to decline in Q3 2024, Q4 2024, Q1 2025, Q2 2025. The index of Leading Economic Indicators has been in negative territory since 2022. On 9/29, the fed funds futures say there is a 53% chance the fed cuts 50bps in November. The fff is saying the economy is in trouble if a 50bps cut is needed.
100% upside to go imo
We shall see very soon what the markets do many folks are scammers on the tube. Do your own research. Look at history.
Thanks for your time!
My pleasure!
im shorting gold soon, got a bearish signal
Yes, it's looking a little technically stretched here, plus there's a strong bullish consensus among the trading community on it now.
Thanks Jared.
My pleasure Andy.
Your reversal signals have been bang on in the past, Jared! Thanks for the heads up on gold and index reversal signals. China stocks looking a bit stretched - any short term reversal signals yet?
Thanks Millie, yes we're getting short term reversals on Chinese ETFs too, so we could see a pullback next week. But these short term massive volume momentum thrust signals that I'm also getting bodes well for the medium term outlook. Keep in mind, never rely on 1 indicator alone, they should always be used as part of an overall strategy. Enjoy your weekend!
@@Click-Capital yes agree. Thank you so much! Enjoy your weekend too
thinking small pullback in October as people are going to think about taking profits before the election, but we'll see. US economic data has to remain stable until then
Yes I think so too, profit taking ahead of the event, if not maybe another VIX spike above 20-25 too.
The Fed has been speaking 60 times a week to keep people positive. Real world sucks right now if you're not rich. The job report is gonna shock, IMO. I am in a corporate job in NYC, not some backwater, it's all hiring freezes, layoffs, outsourcing to India, not replacing people who quit, I'm shocked whenever someone mentions an actual job being created. But who knows, maybe BLS will do more "seasonal adjustments"
Cheers
My pleasure Jason
You didnt shoutout for Portugal! 😅
I definitely will next time Troca! I just barked out the top 6 countries my viewers come from. I've actually got viewers from over 50 countries around the world. Thanks for your support!
DOW topping tail 😮
I saw that, bit of an afternoon reversal
Great video. thank you for bringing the content forward, I watch these from start to finish. I would like to share a unique spin on Bollinger bands where I created a tool to show multiple sets at the same time. using the 4h, 1D and 1W together shows a beautiful roadmap. I know everyone has there favorite tool. But this really shows a great visual for me. I'll share if of interest. Not here to peddle my warez, really appreciate what you do here. Right now, ES/ SPX/ Spy bumping top of Week and day bands. The 4h, Day, and week are in bollinger squeeze.
Thanks, you can email me if you like
You can’t compare the market in 2024 to what it was in 2000. I know you can technically and theoretically but realistically you just can’t
I know, that’s why I said now is different than 2000.
In 6/2024, the cover of Barron's magazine said: Why the Fed will not cut rates in 2024
Classic
“Economic historians usually consider the catalyst of the Great Depression to be the devastating Wall Street Crash. However, some dispute this, seeing the crash less as a cause of the Depression and more a symptom of the rising nervousness of investors partly due to gradual price declines caused by falling sales of consumer goods (as a result of overproduction because of new production techniques, falling exports and income inequality, among other factors) that had already been underway as part of a gradual depression.”
👍
Just remember you don't actually own a Chinese company when you buy Chinese stock, not when you do it in America anyways. It doesn't mean it can't be profitable, but it does mean there is some level of risk there that is not present in US stocks.
Don’t matter, number go up.
you are forgetting how AI has changed the game, potentially increasing the productivity of companies by many times, instead of relying on Manpower and increasing wages. its unlikely anything in history, and trying to look for a pattern to see how the stock market will do in the future is potentially erroneous because of that. :)
I know that, I'm an AI bull, and I have been since I first made a video back in January last year saying I think an AI bull market has started ua-cam.com/video/ryhkO7slahM/v-deo.htmlsi=K_o_pMsmo3C4FOsd
Cheers mate. Vix spiked and has been under decent accumulation for the last month.
I know you're bullish mate but apart from commodities I disagree, we may have seen the start of a blow off top and a nasty correction
Mag 7 will be the undoing, every time most of the gains are wrapped up in a handful of companies it led to a solid correction or crash.
In my opinion the only comparison to the current situation is the industrial revolution or the rail/oil rushes
Mag 7 are no longer leading, it's a global bull market, most indicies are at or near all time highs, same with sectors. The railroad secular bull market went on for 70 years, so if you're comparing the current technology secular bull market with that, then we're not even halfway through!
I’m hoping a pullback in October. It tends to so in election years
Yes that’s what tends to happen then
Thanks jared , when do you think we will have a pull back in markets?
You're welcome. I nor anybody can predict the short term, but October is usually a volatile month in the stock market.
There is no longer the lifetime membership for the stock pick service ? 😢
It’s subscription only to help sustain the ongoing service, lifetime was only a temporary option after I initially launched the service.
Just bought my first little position in YANG. China stimulus will wear off just like all the others.
Bold contrarian call! How long you plan on holding it for?
@@Click-Capital I plan to keep adding if it goes against me and sell when it's profitable. I usually try for a double to start.
What happens if it never recovers, like most leveraged ETFs eventually don't because of their built-in decay? YANG as a 3x leveraged bearish China ETF is actually down 70% over the last 3 years, when the China stock market is down 60% in that same time, so even a bad bear market resulted in a massive loss for it. Would you ever take a loss or just keep adding to it?
@@Click-Capital These are definitely made for trading. YANG actually did very well for a time.
True, maybe for a few months they can work out, otherwise they're decay machines.
So we mooning you saying thanks Squeeze incoming
Yes it could be!
Agreed Jared 😁🇦🇺. There is many Channels sprooking doom and gloom. If people listen they are missing out on the best gains.
It's Jared, but thanks for your comment.
Sorry Jared ! You are very good at what you do. 👍👍
All Time Highs will continue. Nvidia to 200 ny mid October. Tesla to 300 in taxi event run up. Bears and shorts are covering and toast. Wild run yo. September will end green first time in forever
It’s looking that way
And correction for the 4th quarter to 5200
Highly doubt the US stock market can contend with the resistance of a 129 year trend line of tops. October dump likely. 👀
Normally October is the most volatile month of the year, but we've already had a VIX 65 spike, would be surprising to see that taken out!
@@Click-Capital this is a post 50 basis point cut October at aths in an inflationary environment. Recession priced in soon. Let’s see what happens. 5750-6000 S&P before sell off. Take note. Topping tail on Dow today. Tons of distribution into rallies at market open this week. 👀
When others are bullish its smart to be bearish i dont get all this news time and time again this is when stupid people get dumped on. Happens always and will continue to always happen.
Are you short Ryan?
Is it that obvious ? Well to me it is. All time highs bullish attitude all over all media scares the crap out of me.
💪😎🎸 KILLA 🎸🦇
Cheers brother!
What’s the application you use to view stocks in the video?
It's TradingView, you can get a discount through my link here www.clickcapital.io/tradingview
I usually invest boomer stocks and we're (also) in a consumer staples bubble. Even some utilities are bubbly. Had to sell some since they ALWAYS nosedive after 2 weeks at this level. Always
How are you measuring a bubble?
4:20 I obviously can't speak for other US consumers & retail investors, but I suspect it's less a matter of "sensitivity", and more matter of "disinterest." For the last couple of decades, Americans have had practically no alternative to buying Chinese goods. (That's our own fault in various ways; I don't mean to blame China.) With recent hopes of a budding opportunity for some deglobalization, or at least some production redistribution, it does feel a bit regressive to be looking for new reasons to send money to China when the markets are teeming with so many excellent investment opportunities elsewhere.
Good points thanks
Sold gains, new week new opportunities.
Fair enough.
We don't have bubbly highs yet?!?!!?!!!!!! Not sure margin is going to go up - what will people take margin out now to buy? Everything is overpriced?
No I don't think so, people buy everything at bubbly highs. Margin debt still well off bubble levels.
@@Click-Capital People are buying everything. From obscure utillities to stagant earning high PE companies like TXN or MCD.
Chinese stocks boom won’t last.
Especially the casino stocks.
If you’ve been to Macau years ago and visit again recently, u will see Macau isn’t what it was before
Yes I know Macau, like much of China hasn't been great for a few years. Seems most people think they'll never ever recover.
Base on what I see, I don’t see it recovering any time soon.
I see a top coming soon, and then it might reverse back.
At what level would you add to PLTR? I want to double my position for the long term.
I'm not sure if I will, I'm happy to let it ride, it's not exactly cheap at 30x sales.
@@Click-Capital I was thinking if it went below $30 again.
I was right on the 50 cut and I think we are in a corrective rally currently which will lead to very much blood like so much blood many people will wish that they never heard of the word stock market but I don't believe we're quite to the end of the corrective rally
Interesting take, what are you looking for as signs the corrective rally may be exhausted?
@@Click-Capital well if they have been cooking the books heavily over at Nvidia we can see all hell break loose in a very short amount of time.
I'm still holding some penny stocks that have been brutally beat over years that have tech for the future. I really believe the dead internet Theory
Fair enough, time will tell!
@@Click-Capital I watch a bunch of UA-cam almost every single day and almost everybody is still saying long.
I pulled out of big caps and doubled my account... No leverage.
If the Dems that cried saying Trump was gonna start a war push one more 8 Billion dollars in weapons button we are effed world wide.
Side note I've seen a lot of military planes flying around here in the mid west. Much more than normal and C 130s flying low AF here in America.
Might push for Marshall law and suspend the elections...
@@Click-Capital I Don't Want to Be Right anymore and my conspiracies theories have been working out can become reality for a bunch of years
As much as I would love to see it, I doubt there will be a SpaceX IPO. It's too easy to make money from keeping it private, they already sell shares to different large funds
I'm not sure about that, Elon's goal isn't to maximize profits but rather achieve his life goal of making humanity multi-planetary for which he needs big capital to do so. What normally happens when they're private, is they raise capital via VCs and the like, then they all cash in when they go public, which I would be surprised if they don't IPO by 2028-29, as that will give them a huge amount of capital to really expand, which they need.
@@Click-Capital The fact that Elon's goal isn't to maximize profit is exactly the reason why he doesn't want to go public - he doesn't want to have to deal with shareholders and short term profit making, which I think buying twitter has made him even more risk averse to. And money certainly isn't the limiting factor these days, the VCs have put in plenty of money. People have been saying SpaceX is going to go public next year for the last ten years. I'd love to be wrong though!
Fair enough, you may be right.
You have a viewer from Israel 🇮🇱 too ❤
Welcome aboard mate, thanks for watching 😎
Waiting for the “outcome? Train go boom” moment
Do you think the stock market has topped already?
@@Click-Capital personally, everyday is a 50/50. I really don’t think the current administration will let a recession happen until later this year. Which theoretically means all time highs until the election
Fair enough
Liked and Subscribed (ALL)
Welcome aboard Michael 😎
@@Click-Capital Thanks.
"everything".
David Tepper appears to have a high level of conviction on Chinese stocks!