Why Mexico Is the Big Winner from the U.S.-China Trade War
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- Опубліковано 17 тра 2024
- The U.S. trade deficit with China has fallen to its lowest level in close to 15 years. But it’s not necessarily because Americans are buying fewer Chinese goods. Many Chinese companies are moving operations to Mexico and shipping to the U.S. from there, taking advantage of the free trade agreement. This is bolstering Mexico’s economy and boosting its currency to the strongest its been against the dollar in nearly a decade. I’ll explain what’s happening.
Chapters:
0:00 U.S.-China trade war
0:40 The peso is soaring
1:08 Big flows of foreign money
2:00 Multinational companies
2:30 How this ties back to the trade war
I’m Dion Rabouin, a WSJ reporter covering markets and the economy. I’ll be diving into all things finance, from the popular and well-known - like crypto and stocks - to the complex and intricate - like leveraged loans, derivatives and private equity. Subscribe to join me as I take a deep dive into what’s making money move and why it matters.
#China #Mexico #DionRabouin
Make Mexico great again!
money corrupts
MMGA!!
Soon we must take back Texas, Arizona and California!!
🙄
Amen
I live in Mexico and I can tell you from experience that I have been seeing many Americans are migrating to Mexico for the economic opportunities and affordable housing and lands. I’m also happy to see fellow Mexicans who lived in the USA move back to their country to stay close to family and the rich culture here.🇲🇽🇺🇸❤️
As a Middle class Mexican I can tell you, that this is the place to be . Mexico is affordable compare to many nations, it’s beautiful and the culture is just great. The one thing the government need to fix is Organized crime. Once that’s fix, Mexico will be the real heaven.
Every Country has that, in America, it's our Govt mostly!!
What's the salary range to be considered middle class in Mexico ?
@@julm7744 that's way below Mexico's minimum wage lol
Google says minimum wage is mx248,93 per day so 14.09€ or 15.14$ x22 days is 309,98€ or 333,08$, is this correct?
@@HomieCV According to INEGI you need at least a salary of 23,000 pesos a month to be consider middle class. Honestly that’s too low at least for some Mexican states. That’s just around 1,400 dlls a month. In my own opinion you will need more than that to have a good lifestyle but that’s a good start.
Excellent reporting. 👍🏾
Much appreciated
Hello im from mexico good video
Thank you
This was very interesting. Had to do a replay. Thank you Dion😊
Glad you enjoyed it. Thank you for watching twice
*YT Quick Survey:* For your shared investing ideas, what do you think will be the next Apple/Microsoft in terms of growth?
None!!!! considering the present unpredictable market volatility i can give over a thousand reasons why the market is a no go especially now.
Although the market isn't so stable, it isn't as bad as some people have made it look... In all honesty, as a beginner who knows next to nothing, I have made over 80k just in a couple of months... I'm a retiree, and I am using these extra resources to help pay for odds and ends that I want.
Hi Mr.Micheal Weebles, from my little experience your profit margin is quite stunning for a beginner. Do you make use of spreadsheets; How did you do it; what is your biggest holding? Thanks.
NO I have never used a spreadsheet.. It's of no relevance to me... For my top holdings, I follow Kelly Marie Matwick's trading positions automatically in real-time... Look her up, she's good.
#VivalaMexico🇲🇽💘🌎
Good job you did well explainibg man ❤
Great video. All the data needed to explain the point and less than 4 minutes!
Nice vid!
Not too bad, although you kind of miss where the people of Mexico fit into this picture, and what role or how this impacts their daily lives with the appreciating local currency. Also it’d be cool if you added the credits to the video description.
Very simple terms, a few million people are relying in remittances from their families in the US, since the dollar became weaker those remittances are shorter in value now, however the government responded by creating a plethora of social welfare programs that would essentially make up for the value lost of those remittances avoiding the worsening of the quality of life of those families, this after 6 years managed to lift about 10 million out of poverty since 2017. And it is a massive system of welfare programs, by official estimates 89% of all families in Mexico are beneficiaries of at least 1 welfare program.
Amazing commentary I did not know
Mexico welcomes Chinese investment. Chinese friends, come and bring your funds, technology, and raw materials. We are responsible for providing land, policies, and workers. Let's happily earn American money together.🤣
Woohoo!
China brings stolen intellectual property 😂
They'll regret that in 20 years
@@tuckerbugeaterwhy?
I heard that American are coming for you. They will not allow you do more business with China.
Interesting analysis
President AMLO separated the economic power from the political power, in other words his government does not allow lobbying from corporations. USA needs to do the same or it will go down the hill. Neoliberalism has failed.
Viva México Libre.👏💯🌹🇲🇽
Good work. Thanks from Philly
Not just US-China trade war. You must count also the global supply chain disruption caused by Covid 19. Due to supply chain disruption companies must redesign their supply chain strategy. ie from single supply hub (China) to regional ones.
100%
Would you rather have your electronics on (70% Chinese-owned) container ship in the Pacific OR on a truck at the US-Mexico border.
Does it matter if it’s a 100% owned Chinese company in Mexico
Yes in 2022
The US trade deficit with the world was 950 billion
Chinese trade surplus with the world was 820 billion
👇
In 2022, Mexico's imports from China exceeded its exports by more than 100 billion U.S. dollars. In that year, the value of products imported from this Asian country reached approximately to 118 billion dollars, whereas exports totaled to about 10.8 billion dollars.
.statista
👇
In 2022, trade between Mexico and the United States reached USD 738 billion, with Mexico posting a surplus of near USD 208 billion.
TradingEconomics
As a Mexican, I am thrilled this is happening BUT I know my people and we can get big headed and take our eye off the ball, not to mention that planning for the long term is not always something that comes naturally to us. One thing that we need to understand is that Mexico is not China. Not implying that we are less but different in our work culture, not to mention the more obvious factors such as size of the country and population, among many other things. As some people have pointed out here, the raw individual parts we don't make, our specialty is assembly. Another important factor is that we can't have this gold rush mentality, meaning just settle for anything and collect without a long term plan. The good times will end at some point (either the trade war ends, as unlikely as it seems now, or simply a cheaper or more enticing hub will emerge), and we just need to make sure that when it does, it's not a 20 meter fall but 2 or 3 meter one, which means that we might have to take a page or two from China's and Korea's playbooks. It's great to get money but it's even more important to get expertise and invest on our own development while the money is flowing. The trade war is giving us some uncommon degree of leverage now and therefore, we shouldn't just settle for any conditions and simply work for money. As happy as I am with this development, we need to make sure that all Mexican people benefit from this and not just the local corporations who are known to basically kiss up to the U.S. and agree to any conditions since they keep most of the money and leave breadcrumbs to the workers. I know, a bit idealistically and probably easier said than done but we at least need to put these on the table for the sake of Mexican people's awareness.
The answer is to take a page from China, in the 2000 they allowed the companies to come there and manufacture with low wages but in return the companies had to train chinese workers and teach them how to make the machinery and the products not just assemble the individual parts eventually the had millions of Chinese who knew how to make the product without the need of the original foreign company and China made their own version of everything.
@@ericktellez7632 China also has an education system that produce millions of engineers every year. So If mexico want to upgrade their industry, great education system is also necessary. Actually I think US just messed up their education system a little.
You should consider looking into everything Mexico is doing. A lot of your "hope they do this" is being done or on its way. There's a lot of investing being done with the education system, Healthcare system, better retirement plans and such. There's so much investments and it's only going to get better💪🏾😤🇲🇽
@@NoSeasBurro Oh, I know and I hope it continues. I was talking more on the side of dealing with these foreign companies investing in the country. We should definitively get more in exchange than simply cash. We got some uncommon leverage now so we should take advantage of it. Of course, not advocating for hostile negotiations but we certainly can push back and set terms that will help Mexico long term.
@@yakuza01 I understand and that's part of what I was implying. Look into it, With this president, there are negotiations with foreign investment, to benefit Mexican citizens as well. A lot of being done and bad contracts/ laws are being retracted or adjusted. It's been a long time of horrible governing in Mexico, that only benefited a select few. Mexico has money and resources, it was just badly distributed. Along with old colonial doctrine and laws, that kept most of México poor. I pray our people continue to benefit from all this growth, it's been too long being overseen and abused. VIVA MÉXICO✊🏽🇲🇽
Ok. Things start moving.
NAFTA is getting stronger!
I have been trading for about 6 months now and just about every mine, it backfires and slaps me in my face. Nearly impossible for me to catch more than a few points I try to do top down analysis but it doesn't work for me . I say to myself, clearly I'm in the 90% that lose money, so I open a demo account, do my analysis, then take the opposite of what I would normally take and get the same result. I'm starting to feel hopeless, any advice for a struggling trader?
Indeed, the recent market downturn serves as evidence that a vast majority of individuals lacked a sufficient understanding of the underlying financial dynamics at play.
~dontListen to him, don't give up. Mining takes time(months, even years) to master, even the pros learn everday. Never the less, if you lose money no matter which side you take, maybe you need to look at how you are managing active trades rather than how you are entering them. My advice, find a mentor . And also, try incorporating the use of oscillators, Bollinger and pivot points into your strategy. And most importantly move to higher TFs(4h or 1D preferably), you'll thank me later.
You're absolutely right. While I don't incur losses with every trade, my primary challenge lies in allowing my winning trades to fully develop. I often find that I miss out on significant movements in the market. Instead of capitalizing on these opportunities, my trades tend to reverse after initially moving in my favor. Additionally, I acknowledge that my entry points could be significantly refined. Finding a mentor to guide me through these challenges would be immensely beneficial, although I recognize that locating a reputable mentor is easier said than done. If you happen to know any legitimate mentors, I would greatly appreciate any recommendations you could provide.
I've been working with a financial advisor since I started investing. In today's market, the challenge lies in timing purchases and sales of trending stocks, which seems straightforward but can be tricky. My portfolio has grown significantly, making about $1500 bi-weekly. Essentially, what I'm saying is that the 5% of consistently profitable traders often fly under the radar; they're typically low-key individuals. I rely on my account manager to handle entry and exit orders for me.
Would you mind recommending the specific professional you utilize for their services? I'm facing numerous marketing challenges and could use some assistance.
That was always the plan
Congrats to Peter Navarro
My man Dion! Excellent reporting as usual. Middleman Mexico is benefitting from this situation. Actions of the previous administration and this current administration have led China to 'decouple' from the U.S. in terms of trading. No wonder Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has made a trip to China _twice_ to beg them not to decouple from the U.S..
I think she is there to ask the Chinese not to dump their goods onto the USA because American companies won’t be able to compete
Chinese just purposely cracked down on their Real Estate sector
Where their people adding around 2.6 trillion to their bank accounts each year even with this slowdown
will have no real investment options but to invest in critical technologies of the future
Where China already leads the world in 37 of 44 of those critical technologies.
So get ready for them to export even more goods to the world
Thanks! Glad you appreciate the reporting.
Yellen and her kind already planned the decoupling years ago.
Irony
2:10 Hi Dion. Can you please elaborate on why the high interest rates make the country an attractive destination for foreign investors?
Good ?
Unbelievable how strange rules can produce unthinkable changes
The US-China trade war has helped tremendously the Mexican manufacturing sector. I am from Mexico City and I think the peso strength is positive for our economy, since importing machinery and equipment necessary to produce more becomes cheaper.
global economy works well for mexico, great!
According to a supply chain guy I know, a huge amount of assembly has already moved from China to Mex
The stronger the Mexican economy is, the more jobs in Mexico. This will make it less likely that people will continue through Mexico to USA as people won’t have to migrate just to make a living. Not a total fix by any means but a help.
Let’s not forget that people cross thru Mexico to get to the US, but with good jobs Central Americans can stay in Mexico and not immigrate all the way north…
Well now….this was most enlightening! Great segment! Had no idea China was maneuvering around US tariffs through Mexico. Explains so much. ✨✨✨
Glad you enjoyed it!
I am mexican living in Europe and have better salary in Mexico hahah ironic
New Northern Empire of Peace love and Stability looms in the Horizon in Unity of the top 3 North American Countires!
Es un Honor estar con Obrador
💚🤍❤️👍🏻✅
Please unhide Dion’s Livestreams and videos!!! He was simply amazing; so sad to see him let go.
Near-shoring to Mexico just makes cents. Pun intended. The wages paid in Mexico are sub-Chinese and a fraction of Canadian and American ones much the same way Hungary in Europe has become the authoritarian backwater that exports cars to Europe on the cheap, but you know with an actual democracy and relatively stable governments. Plus all these tactics are just stopgaps before automated/robotic labor probably replaces us all...
they may be cheaper, but still offer a living wage
@@pottertheavenger1363 if you can keep your head
@@tuckerbugeater Unless you wanna play gangster.
It just increases prices for Americans although nothing wrong with that, I don’t see how it can help the Mexicans people earn more money and skills , seems like my country selling us for tourism that only creates bad paying jobs instead of investing in highly skilled ones
Mexico should improve in the coming years, but nobody should count on it to come to replace China. Just to start, Mexico has always been right next to the USA, next to the opportunity. This is not just about low salaries as most people believe, even when China's have grown a lot.
One simple thing that can hold Mexico back is water scarcity, especially in northern Mexico where the actual hopes are betting on. Northern Mexico is plain desert, already industrialized, already holding a big population of millions, already facing big time trouble due to lack of water.
有这么缺水吗
Your just like most of the rest, why is it so difficult to explain the reason for Mexico massive increases in many areas, is simply because of China using Mexico as a conduit to bypass the sanctions and gain entry into the U.S. market.Where China and U.S. business has declined, is where Mexico and China has improved.
I'm pretty sure that's what I say in the video. What am I missing?
The host did not say it directly but that is information that can be easily inferred. This is bad for US but good for China and Mexico.
Yes in 2022
The US trade deficit with the world was 950 billion
Chinese trade surplus with the world was 820 billion
👇
In 2022, Mexico's imports from China exceeded its exports by more than 100 billion U.S. dollars. In that year, the value of products imported from this Asian country reached approximately to 118 billion dollars, whereas exports totaled to about 10.8 billion dollars.
.statista
👇
In 2022, trade between Mexico and the United States reached USD 738 billion, with Mexico posting a surplus of near USD 208 billion.
TradingEconomics
Yet the US, and Canada can have Chinese companies in their countries, but no problem? And why the trade war with China? American companies left the Midwest and took their companies to China to make millions, no outrage for corrupt greed companies?
You are correct.
Currently, the situation appears peculiar. While the US dollar is depreciating because of inflation, it is gaining strength when compared to other currencies and assets such as gold and real estate. Due to the perception of safety, individuals are flocking to the dollar. I am worried that the increasing inflation could result in a decrease in the value of my retirement savings. Are there any other viable options for us to invest our money?
In my opinion, having a mentor is essential. While finding an experienced mentor may be challenging, especially if you have limited knowledge of the market, it is definitely worth the effort.
Hahaha Very Good. Finally, WE SHOULD ALL BE GRATEFUL FOR MEXICO'S PROGRESS AFTER SO MANY YEARS, THANK GOD.
There's Daly based show from general scientific said
I ❤ 🇲🇽
and LAXZescapees flewing 2 MX citay
There is well over three thousand Chinese businesses in Mexico do you understand now?
Car companies left mexico in early 2000s now they are coming back huge logistical L
0:02 / 2:08
Ireland Embraces Chinese-Made Electric Vehicles in Push for Greener Future
Many of the manufacturing plants in Mexico are actually Chinese owned plants. Specifically the electronic and fabrication ones. Same thing is occurring in south east asian countries like Vietnam. Need to dig a bit deeper under the hood and avoid lazy analysis by presuming the Mexicans always had the supply chain established for these high end products . The Chinese have long been prepared for this. They have plants in India that have been in operation for 15+ years.
Watching the video before commenting is helpful. "But that’s not because Americans have stopped buying goods made by Chinese companies. It’s because many Chinese companies and U.S. firms that do a lot of business with China have moved their operations to Mexico."
Plants in India ? 🤔
But the government is stopping Chinese investment so maybe what you are talking about was a small investment.
arent multinational corporations a bad thing? wont prices go up in mexico in say 10 years?
What keeps Mexico down is Corruption and Crime. Two issues that are extremely tough to address.
Mexican products had quality cintrol issues specially electrical wiring
I’ve been thinking this for some time… Mexico 🇲🇽 is ripe 💎 for opportunity if the government can get a handle on the corruption & crime; also they must address the growing problem of water 💧 scarcity.
Honesty … in government works !!!!
I lost over $70k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Kathleen Chandler.
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
You trade with Kathleen Chandler too? Wow that woman has been a blessing to me and my family.
Please let me know how to contact her as I'm new to this.
she's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name
fxannchandler 💯 ..that's it
I'm glad that this is a well funded argument to understand why the mexicam currency value is not because of Obrador as he unshamelessly attributes to himself.
That is only a factor, the peso getting stronger is multi-factorial. I bet other administration like PRI or PAN's would choose to devaluate the peso to "get more foreign investment".
So trump made Mexico great 🤣
Basically, he did
Your question should be who's the loser between America and China and Mexico
But it's not only china are many European countries, sudamerica cou and Asian countries
Why didint we do this in the first place.
Es un honor estar con Obrador 🎉
Thank you!
Viva Mexico!
Como que el presentador habla con muchos selos me da esa impression con la introduction del video tambien
🇲🇽✔️
Since 2018 no since 2016
Some Mexican Americans are literally moving back.
Don’t be impress if Mexico will be a better country to leave or retire your life there. Economy in Mexico will be one of the grates in few years. So imagine another Canada/US life style in Mexico.
0:59 1:03
I always tell myself I don’t know why Mexico and United States and Canada. Sign a trade treaty. The upper north continent will be invisible. We got the Mexican blood of a fighter and pride, we got America defense and money, Canada we just got Canada. It’ll be a strong bond.
I live in Zapotlanejo Jalisco ill sell tacos de birria tatemada , tacos al vapor,in weekens ill sell in the tianguis , baratillo Guadalajara, the economi it súper great , better than 90, , 2008. 20 k avery month, i d don t nkow what to buy?
Trades is like a tube of tooth paste. If you are to squeeze it on one end in the form of tariff, the tooth paste moves to the other end. The US is playing a game of "whack a mole" with China.
Critics have said this from the beginning, but both the previous and current U.S. administration have decided to go with tariffs.
@@DionRabouinWSJ US leaders don't think things out, they don't think long term, all they do is react by kmeejerk and very emotionally. The US will be in a world of pain this coming years.
The Wall just got 10 feet taller! Who's going to pay for the wall?!? Who?!?
Viva mexico
As a Mexican who has lived through many economic crisises, I can't really make heads or tails of this situation...
Good reporting, though....
Thanks
The 51st state
Most of those products are still made in China but stamped Mexico.
I wanna move back to Mexico instead less stress right after I save up 100k and paid of my car
Mexico is just a middle man here. All the goods is still coming from china
The less developed nation always has the most to gain in free trade agreements with developed nations. Which is why communist or socialist advocates claim capitalism is bad and lobby against the US doing business with these third world nations as it's seen as "exploitative" when in reality it's just business. Most of their savior complex comes from the wage disparity (obviously if there are substandard safety practices those should be remedied). They want american companies to pay for example vietnamese workers more than the free market says they should so in reality those jobs wont be given to those vietnamese workers who can now no longer use big american wages (in relation to their countries avg wage) to increase their standard of living and are now out of a job. Let the free market do it's job the end.
hi
Hey
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Chinas also benefits from the hard working and low paying wages Mexico has to offer. Been here eight years..... I had my first hand experiences in these slave wages
🤔🤓😎
🇨🇳: 😡🔪
🇺🇸: 😡 🔫
🇲🇽: 🚬🗿💰
Chyyyyyyyna
The two nations were already codependent now they will be more xd
At least now as a Mexican, I'm happy any aggression from Trump or any other American politicians will be less aggressive.
The US; I don´t want anyrthing with China
China; I dont want anything with the US
Mexico; 😊😊😊😊😊😊😊
🇺🇲🇲🇽🇨🇦💪
Make mexico great again..
Mexican leadership has been genius level when it comes to trade. NAFTA setup a one way valve for jobs from the United States. I’ve experienced the practical application first hand and did consulting work in Mexico. Well played Lopez….. well played.
I mean it's a very simple trade-off you can have a factory that's made of Styrofoam or a factory that's made of concrete nobody wants a tofu dreg factory
CHina is the modern masterbuilder, they have cities and infrastructures that make the american cities belong in the third world. They have used more concrete in 3 years (2011-2013) the the US did in the whole 20th century (1901 to 2000). Keep thinking that if you must to make yourself feel better.
🇲🇽🇲🇽🇲🇽🇲🇽🇲🇽🇲🇽🇲🇽🇲🇽🇲🇽🇲🇽🇲🇽🇲🇽
Biggest winner Vietnam, 2nd winner Mexico.
Vietnam has certainly benefitted from this, but why would you say Vietnam is a bigger winner than Mexico?
@@DionRabouinWSJ well, it's not a competition, both countries are the biggest beneficiaries. Some industries benefit more than the others in different countries. Vietnam got more electronics, because they are close to the supply chain. Mexico got more auto because they are close to the demands.
Vietnam median age is 32, Mexico is still at 29, per capita gdp in Vietnam is about 5k in Mexico is about 12k
Mexico is thriving because of Mexico's new president (AMLO). His no corruption policies, now w/prison sentences for corrupt politicians, and ended all their luxuries too. People's taxes now goes back into the country in the form of projects; transportation, schools, hospitals, and free education, including college and social security benefits for 65 yrs and older.
You did not mention that their high interest rate is also a big contributing factor to their strong peso.
I mentioned it a couple times.
"And the country’s economy grew by more than 3% last year, even with interest rates at some of the highest levels in the world."
"JPMorgan Asset Management’s Gabriela Santos told me recently that the strength of the peso, combined with Mexico’s high interest rates, has made the country a very attractive destination for foreign investors."
So u basically mean because of the China-America trade war, China imports to Mexico, and Mexico then imports to America.
😂 "God bless America"
Yeah, what the US did in its trade war with China is include Mexico in the equation thus just making the prices higher for the end customer, THEM!
Exactly, prices increase, like stealing money from a child 😂
Article energy power technology digital ecosystem research of general scientific illegally use high level celleding money
As long as they pay taxes and follow mexican employment law they are welcome
thanks Trump for making Mexico great again! and the US is paying for it!
Lol you are literally years behind Peter Zeihan has be saying this for years...