#14 Gavin Schmidt - Climate Science, Projections, Measurements, Denialism
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- Опубліковано 21 чер 2024
- In this week's episode, David is joined by climate scientist Dr Gavin Schmidt, Director of the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) and co-founded of the RealClimate blog.
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This is a brilliant conversation. Well spoken and deep with knowledge. Thanks for this.
This was an excellent interview showing the complexities of climate science & the humanity of the people behind the calculations. Gavin is the kind of scientist I enjoy listening to. He's enjoys his job because it challenges him, not because he has an axe to grind. Keep up the good work Cool Worlds ‼️
lol, the climate change of what? 1% as many people dying from climate related events as 100 years ago? the climate change of your consistant alleged records of all type of things, such as forest fires... despite there being 3-4x more forest fires in the early 1900s in the US than today
all you people do is lie and obfuscate
Dr. Schmidt truly is The Wizard of Oz! We are lucky to have him as the keeper of the temperature data. I know that I get excited every time there's a new GHCN version.
The wizard of Oz was a fraud and a lie. So ya, totally.
lol, the climate change of what? 1% as many people dying from climate related events as 100 years ago? the climate change of your consistant alleged records of all type of things, such as forest fires... despite there being 3-4x more forest fires in the early 1900s in the US than today
all you people do is lie and obfuscate
After 35 mins I took a break as the discussion revolved around the accuracy of climate modelling, & I am thinking what about self-reinforcing feedbacks & the size of the data grids? Will resume later ..
Nice guest. It's interesting to hear from the people making the models and what their view is like. I use models a lot in my work (transistors) and it's not quite the same language.
Great conversation! As a retired engineer, I see climate change as a great opportunity for innovation and technological advancement that will result in a better world with fewer environmental risks. It's the politicalization of this issue that presents the biggest barriers to making these advances possible. Even so, I still feel that we'll figure out how to either curb the problem or adapt to it.
Agreed. Politics only comes up with terrible solutions to the problem like the push for BEV's and solar panels. We are going to have to engineer ourselves out of this issue and not release even more toxins onto our planet like we do now.
DUH
Capitalists are destroying the world, and you think ‘politicization’ is the problem?
@@Rnankn expect your response to be removed very quickly. As are mine all the effing time
It’s political. Simple as. If you need to change people behaviour that is a politics. The science is the science but the action required to fix is politics.
Climate science does utilize statistical methods to analyze data, detect trends, and project future impacts. However, the core understanding of climate change - that human activities like burning fossil fuels are causing global warming - is based on established scientific principles. Excellent conversation!
I think alot of people don't realise that this area of study has been going on for over two centuries. They're under the impression it started with Al Gore and An Inconvenient Truth.
lol what
Thanks for this informative discussion. Viva Science!
4:00 You cannot just walk into Mordor! (look up the PhD as LoTR analogy if you don't get it)
My concern about warming is the effect on crops. Heat, droughts and floods destroy crops. We're seeing a lot of those effects this year. That's dangerous for our society, especially since it will get worse each year
I’m more worried about the Goldilocks zone that humanity finds itself existing on in the continents. As the climate warms, the Goldilocks zone shrinks. This will push humans into areas that are non-ideal for modern civilization. Paired with global population growth and the increasing competition for home ownership, I foresee a future where home ownership belongs to the privileged few & the vast majority are debt trapped to land lords or surviving the land.
@@gravoc857 " As the climate warms, the Goldilocks zone shrinks"
the earth has never been healthier and greener at any time within the industrial revolution as it is today. finally we have gotten beyond near starvation levels at around 200 ppm towards double that and we are reaping the rewards
I was just speaking with my good friend, a known maga anti-vexer about his very adorable dog, Jackson. Jackson is due for his periodic shots, which his owner obviously has no problems with. Because It’s for his beloved Jacky boy, and of course Jackson’s doggie booster vaccines are quite safe. You see this is the problem, if they, all the anti-vexer/conspiracy theorists/maga can’t see through their own contradictions and hypocrisies how can we get through to them individually, let alone as a whole?
As a non American the conflating of MAGA and anti-vaxxer is literally the problem in the world. There may be overlaps but are not the same things. Deliberate or ignorance? I wonder
My friend is a maga and my friend is also an anti-vexer, i.e. maga anti-vexer etc.. It’s really quite simple, no.😂
@@dukie1616 you prove my point
Gavin sugarcoats nothing, and it's just what we all need.
I laughed sooo much wheh China and India example, though, so realistic, excellent video.
I’m not a scientist and don’t claim to know much about climate and global temperatures. I have however spent alot of time trying to find out the truth. The sources I feel like are the most credible tell a different story. Point being , long term climate predictions are next to impossible. We need to learn how to say “ we don’t really know”.
How long term are you talking. James Hansens projections from the 80s panned out pretty well, once adjusted for the quantity of GHGs actually emitted and the cooling effect of particulate matter and aerosols.
Feelings are probably not the best way to determine whether a source is credible.
"I’m not a scientist..."
"The sources I feel like are the most credible..."
The first statement explains the faults in the second. But we both know ur just here to troII.
You keep the best camera for yourself 🤭
On the topic of disagreements. I had a coworker claim temperatures are actually cooling because the NASA Huntsville scientist for whom he did house renovation told him that the atmosphere is actually cooling. We argued intensely. Turns out that NASA Huntsville had been calculating the inverse due to a math error.
dont know why youre acting like that as if theres any kind of scientific consensus aboutwhat the results will be... and when you got the biggest frauds in the world, like michael mann
Can't natural gas cause as much warming as coal, depending on the methane leaks?
Finally, its starting to feel like we have a decent chance at combatting climate change. Thanks to people like Schmidt who have worked on it for all these years!
nah, we're in the sh*t more than ever.
we will change climate change
Hopefully awareness will continue to increase but the massive bastions of denialism/accelerationism still hold all the power.
but wait what happened to claims from the same people that we'd gonna be all frozen in the new ice age by the 1990, or what happened to ozone holes? what happened to all shores being underwater by 2012, 2015,2018,2020,2022,2024? ah yea nothing happened, once again they would collect money from gullible public, do absolutely nothing, than when they time would come claim that nothing happened bcs they saved everyone, invent new doomsday, and the cycle will repeat itself
you are delusional
Seeing his physics and models, the fact Germany never beat the USA to the atomic bomb in ww2 is delineated to people at the top making the correct decisions on how to work on this problem. The fact Germany was working on an offshoot of atomic power by studying it's nature of radioactivity and stability of elements instead of using Enrico Fermi to make plutonium instead of beating our heads against how to make more information available on how to create enough material available, like from the very top like Pzillard going to Einstein to tell him of the threat posed by Germany being ahead in physics which scared the heck out of our top thinkers. Had Germany made it a national priority like we did with the Manhatten project then atomic weapons would have been falling all over England. In fact they had the perfect delivery system with V2 rocket, which instead of using all these scientists in the V2 program instead of in Germany all these disparate units instead of making things like the 163 Komet instead focusing on making the ultimate weapon a nuclear weapon. This is the failure at the top to direct forces and talent into a proper direction. I believe they did have enough talent if properly directed towards the weapon. Fortunately the leadership did not understand millions of electron volts per reaction to a few 10's of volts with chemical elements.
47:28 this is clearly way beyond his specialty this whole segment. He is not a social scientist. The problem under discussion is not a battle of values, like he characterised it, but a battle against the control of values. The solution is developing thinking power to where values are difficult to control.
Fossil fuels rising at their fastest ever rate after 30 year dire warnings is the only game in town. Were now tracking or exceeding worse case. This guy might as well get a gardening job as no one is listening.. also its fairly badic science ghg loading..you dont need millions in kit to confirm 23:15
1st and 2nd street fell into the sea? 😮 Citation needed.
Never in my life have I been this early!
I wish this was my college class
Ah, good friends. I now understand who dispensed the Kool-Aid in you lab.
Didn't explain chem-trails ? but I didn't watch the whole vid
No one is going to say it? …
Faster than expected?
It ain't looking good?
People pretending they can measure the earths temperature. Let alone predictively calculate the "climate" . Hilarious
@@High.DesertAmazing. But is clearly demonstrated on a regular basis they do predict the climate and have done for decades. These predictions have proven to be very accurate. Or as Dr Schmidt would say “skillfull”.
@@byrnemeister2008 thanks for the laugh 🤣😂
@High.Desert The oil companies don’t argue it. And even the handful of skeptical scientists left do not disagree that we can measure the earth’s temperature. So, you may want to vet your sources.
❤️🔥👍
This is one of a few things I'm glad I don't have to worry about. The future can clean up any mess. XD
Please make a video of Terrence Howard's science claims and debuke them. He certainly gained much publicity when speaking to Joe Rogan.
No need. He was either on drugs or was looking for attention or has a mental illness or is stupid. These are you options. There is no point of trying to debunk gibberish.
No need. NGT already did it to a paper he was given by the actor which is all nonsense. Easily disprovable nonsense. Easy to find that episode just search for it
So the very beginning of this interview he says it out loud... he didnt know where he could make a living and somebody said 'climate bollox', thats how u can get funding and actually feed ur family. Nothing personal to this guy but how many people jumped on this bandwagon and fed the narrative?
Do better Dr Kipping, i used to be an avid follower but please lets stick to actual science rather than the speculation that human behaviour has the majority impact on 'climate change'
The actual problems that the western world face due to their facile obsession with net zero is hurting the lower classes to a such a severe degree i find it hard to comprehend
Scientists are generally politically naive. You may think that makes them susceptible to grand conspiracies, but they really believe in the tenets of reproducibility and peer review. Climate scientists aren't conspiring to overthrow the oil industry, they're scrutinizing data and models for biases and errors. Gavin said it was fascinating to him, you're just hearing what you want.
It is hurting the lower classes because that is how society and politics are designed. Not doing anything about climate change will also hurt the lower classes. The pie could be divided a lot more even, but we have decided that the ROI from shareholders is more important than the lives of millions of the less fortunate.
@@rienkhoek4169 lol no, its hurting the lower classes cause theyre the poorest and incur the most heavy cost on a percentrage basis
@@rienkhoek4169 not doing anything "about climate change" has taken the world to 1% as many people dying from climate related issues today as 100 years ago
not doign anything about climate change has taken the world to record greening and crop growth
@@rienkhoek4169 "The pie could be divided a lot more even, but we have decided that the ROI from shareholders is more important than the lives of millions of the less fortunate."
what in thte world are you even on about
“global warming… is a religion [freeman dyson]. when questioned during an interview: “so how come you’re the only one that says that?” dyson answered: “because I’m retired”. 😮😮😮😮
And because he was a physicist not a climate scientist.
@@byrnemeister2008 ad hominem logical fallacy
@@mrslave41 Well, if it's not a fallacy to appeal to the authority of a famous scientist, then it's not a fallacy to point out that his authority lacks weight.
@@robertcartwright4374
and, of course, hes not theo nly one saying that at all. its a completely proven farce, the way in which cultists like the ones in the video are reasoning, and making conclusions about it
2:07 “global warming… is a religion” [freeman dyson]. you had all those years that he was alive to convince him that he’s wrong. But instead you only managed to convince him that you’re a religion. So what do you want from us?
Seems like you've made Dyson into your messiah.
Dyson was out of touch. He was involved in climate modeling in it's early days, when the models we simple, and he was not impressed. They have evolved massively since then. He said it himself that he's no expert and his opinions on climate change weren't a big part of his life. Clutching at straws seems to sum up your position.
@@petewright4640 freeman dyson called the global warming experts - “a religion” because of the way they reacted to his criticism.
@@mrslave41 One of the criticisms of Dyson is that he wouldn't just sit down and talk to the scientists to understand their reasoning. Broadcasting his uninformed opinions was irritating to them. When someone repeatedly says the Earth is flat but won't listen and try to understand what's wrong with that view then people eventually loose patients and ignore them. Such a person then thinks the scientists are unreasonable, dogmatic, a religion etc.
@@petewright4640 please perform the following scientific experiment: pretend to be a warming skeptic. and go online. just leave comments on pro global warming youtube videos asking scientifically skeptical questions. do this for a while. until you get responses. if you get any answers that are not perfect logical fallacies - that would be absolutely incredible. because no one EVER responded logically to ANY of my questions. cheers 🥂your response is actually one of the only such examples in the years since i became a warming skeptic 🤨
Until we step away from the brink of WW3 and people can afford groceries dont expect anyone to give a crap about this. Always funny watching these privileged academics who have no grip on reality obsess over this 😂
This is only going to make those problems worse. As parts of the world become uninhabitable due to these changes there will be an even greater influx of refugees around the world which will cause more issues with culture clash, food shortages, and inflation. Which will lead to more hostilities and violence.
These problems are what need to be solved to alleviate those problems before they happen. Listening more to these scientists and less to idiots in politics, social media clowns, and corporate propaganda would do wonders for us.
People not being able to afford food is a political decision. It is how society is designed. It is not because of a changing climate.
36:35 i heard enough. nothing new. “warming is due to CO2”. assuming it’s true. let’s continue warming the planet 🌎 ❤❤❤❤
Your lack of self respect is sad to read. I wish better things for you. ❤️
@@beefandbarley ad hominem logical fallacy
8:30 “impact” 😂😂😂😂😂how’s that related to climate science? 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂So once again we have an academician stepping outside of his field of expertise and lecturing us. And then you are complaining that we’re not listening to you?! Why should we listen to a non-expert???😮😮😮😮😮
You're spamming this place with nonsense. Go take a break for a while. No Cool Worlds regular will take anything you say seriously so a time out is in your best interest here.
@@vicenzor9699 and that’s why global warming is just a religion.
The experts are wrong too.
@@vicenzor9699 lol
Human activity have very little if none impact on climate change
I’m surprised that these two people are so entrenched in this subject…….the sun ☀️ is a star to which we have no control….also I like them to prove beyond reasonable doubt it’s man made..technology in the future will become more cleaner but at the moment we spend all our money 💰 on wars we have no choice but to use fossil fuels……these people have been predicting this since 1970 and nothing has happened……it’s just a TAX AND TAXES AND MORE TAXES
Which wars are we spending our money on? Yes, the sun is a star. And the cause of climate change has been proven a long time ago beyond reasonable doubt (hint: it's not the sun, it's the greenhouse gas emissions that we humans are spewing out when we burn fossil fuels. I know, mindblowing right 🤯
Our sun has been relatively stable for all of human recorded history. We have to use fossil fuels because the powers that be have spent nearly a century killing off alternative fuel sources. Wars will exist as long as we live as a finite species on a finite planet. Don’t expect war to stop until we hit post scarcity, which implies Type 2 to type 3 status. We’re type 0.72. We got several thousands to several million years to go before we can reasonably stop war.
Thousands of scientists around the world, degrees, PhDs etc, and not one stopped to consider if the Sun is responsible for rising global temperatures. It took a bloke on youtube to do that. F*** me mate, you're a f****** legend. Go apply for a job at NASA quick. I'm sure they'll appreciate your expertise on the subject!
Load of bollocks. They still can't predict next weeks weather... 😂
Weather forecasting and climate modeling are apples and oranges. If you bothered to actually listen to this podcast instead of trolling and learning about them you would know why forecasting detailed local weather beyond a week is almost impossible and why the global climate models have been able to predict the global climate behavior very accurately.
I like a hot jungle planet.
It'll be a hot desert planet...
35:30 “the earth will continue warming due to CO2”. great. let’s keep adding more CO2. [paraphrased from freeman Dyson]