Will China attack Taiwan? | Lex Fridman Podcast
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- Опубліковано 10 лют 2025
- Lex Fridman Podcast full episode: • DeepSeek, China, OpenA...
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GUEST BIO:
Dylan Patel is the founder of SemiAnalysis, a research & analysis company specializing in semiconductors, GPUs, CPUs, and AI hardware. Nathan Lambert is a research scientist at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of a blog on AI called Interconnects.
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See below for guest bio, links, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.
*GUEST BIO:*
Dylan Patel is the founder of SemiAnalysis, a research & analysis company specializing in semiconductors, GPUs, CPUs, and AI hardware. Nathan Lambert is a research scientist at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of a blog on AI called Interconnects.
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The fabs the 1st barrier
the ASML machines the 2nd barrier
and the chip design is the 3rd barrier
the supply from TSMC is limited
so restrictions redirect it to the West from China
leaders to diverging data sets
that lead to an AI cold war
what he needs to understand is this.. there is no good reason for TSMC to build its most cutting edge low nm chips in the USA.. to do so would mean America would turn its back on Taiwan and TSMC... so the cutting edge of what they do will never have a home in the USA.. sure they may do 7nm or something like that .. but its smallest scale work will never have its home in the US.... America may want off TSMC as part of its supply chain... but it will not get its way on this and the states are way tooo far behind to catch up.. same goes for China.. as long as TSMC and its fab plants remain on the cutting edge.. Taiwan will always be safe... also .. rare earths.. if America keeps pushing its trade war with China.. China could just cut them off... yes there may be lots of places to find them on earth.. but no one is as good or as big as China in doing so.. This is an Ai arms race .. but i do not know Americas path is a correct one if it seeks to win it... Let us also note putting Paul the ex boss of the NSA on the OpenAi board just puts the fear of hacking into anyone with any brains... the worlds best hacker is not China... It is America... This whole America No1 America is the worlds boss thing plus Gaza... is just making more and more nations seek to remove America and its mandates from their sphere.
My take on it as a 35 years in technology Englishman .. is pro humanity .. and has no bias towards the left or the right .. the east or the west... I just care about People Lex.
@ Taiwan needs a shield they can make more money by building more fabs because the supply is very limited right now and they already are building.
Answer "i don't know, I'm not a geopolitical expert." --- you're welcome
Geopolitical experts are fake. There’s no mechanism to punish inaccuracy. Prediction markets will do a much better job once they’re implemented at scale.
...and Pyongyang, South Korea 😂
General Secretary Kim does not like your message
I am so confused, isn't that North Korea? How can they get this wrong 😅
😮😮😮
It’s North Korea lol
lex should ask my opinion on India next, I'll know just as much as this guy knows about China
😂
The guy likely cant even speak a word of Mandarin but acts like an experth on China lol.
😂
@@jasonchang8601No need to know Chinese Language or any other to know their history and economy. Do u even know what era right now? You can find everything and read everything online unless u live behind China Great Firewall.
EPIC
“Like like like like like like like like like like like like like like… like like like”
😂😂
Also…right? right? right?
Like what ?
@ KOrRect 👍🏼
What's not to like about it? 😅
Pyongyang, South Korea is where the leading edge R&D happens 😂😂😂
Pyongyang is North Korea, you may mean Seoul in South Korea
he meant Pyeongtaek....
Another fast talking brown man repeating different buzzword
You don’t need to prove that you have been to that country to talk shit about that coutry. - Sun tzu
Yep... Never been to the country. Don't know the language. Claim to be an expert.
Quote from the book "Sun tzu, the Art of Commenting on the Internet."
👍🤣
@@Lord_Cointoss Very deep and meaningful...Lol.
You do not understand China. Analyst something you do not even know is 😂
What specifically did he say that was wrong about "understanding" China?
@@JohnDorian-j7x Uniting Taiwan has nothing to do with technology. Throughout history, China has united Taiwan multiple times. Every dynasty that lost the civil war went to Taiwan. The Republic of China is not unique. Not a single regime on the island will become independent.
@@kevin-y1d6o Only 2, including ROC. The other one is Prince Yanpin of Ming. Yielded to Qing after 2 generations.
@ Taiwan hasn't been an integral part of China for the majority of its history. Nobody needs it.
@@kevin-y1d6o Umm, no. China hasn't "united Taiwan" even once. The Ching dynasty controlled the Western plains of Taiwan for a while. They never controlled the mountainous areas which make up more than half of Taiwan and they certainly never even went to the East coast. The mountains and east coast were controlled by various indigenous tribes ...The Amis tribe controlled most of central and North East and The Paiwan tribe in the South and South East were two of the biggest tribes. There are over a dozen indigenous tribes in Taiwan, each with its own language an and customs. They (and later some Hakka immigrants) controlled Taiwan before the Japanese conquered the island. The Dutch had an enclave in the South around what is now Tainan. for some time too.
The Japanese were the only foreign country to occupy and control the whole country. They were here for around 50 years.
Your final sentence is really silly. Taiwan is now a de facto independent country with its own democratic government, laws, military and currency. It doesn't need to 'formally declare independence' because it already is.
Taiwan has never been part of "The Peoples' Republic of China" and never will.
Why is this guy supposed to be a china expert. He doesn’t live there
Never seen a person showing the ignorance with confidence like this. Who is this guy😅
Another....Indian guru👃
Make India super power :)
80,000 USD in Taiwan os like 200,000 USD in any major US city
Lex oddly naive about the direction of us china relations
F
F
Lex should interview people like Ben Norton, Cyrus Jensson and Carl Zha about China
Or well known Chinese geopolitics scholars who speak fluent English: Weiwei Zhang, Victor Gao, Eric Li, “Chairman Rabbit”
Those guys all have no clue what they're talking about, LMAO
Hey Lex, I wonder if you have ever been to China. Because in your videos, I see you know very little about the real China. Do you just live in your own western world, and don’t understand what’s happening on the other side of the globe?
Yea none of these guys been to China, not even mention big city, middle city and small city and rural area. China is soooooo damn complicated and it is even more complicated than the east west coast and Midwest.
But the current situation is that both us and China try to decouple which is something none of us want to see
No im good with decoupling.🎉
@@LearnWithZ2023
@@LearnWithZ2023 especially the 30:1 ratio claimed here ... I lived in China, and no, there is not such a huge divide. It's just made up "facts" to give Patel's arguments more perceived credibility.
@@VlastimirStankovic I see u followed Nathan rich. I hate that kid, full of “correct” lies.
@@LearnWithZ2023 ah, guilt by association. A keyboard warrior's favorite. Enjoy your triumph.
He got the key point totally wrong. If he learns Chinese history, especially the part about Taiwan, he will know that Mainland government has to reunify Taiwan no matter Taiwan has semiconductor chips or not. It is all about national honor, pride and humiliated history. If current CCP government couldn't do it, they will be kicked out by Chinese people, and new party will prioritize the reunion.
Yeah but the Chinese people also realise the potential loss in life that could occur over a hot war. There are literally Chinese who have relatives living in Taiwan right now so taking it forcefully will cause A LOT of displeasure. Especially during a time when the economy is not at its top shape.
I think we are now going through the water shed moment. As China continue to make head ways technologically and culturally, Taiwan will slowly warm to China just as they have warmed to the Japanese. There are already a change in opinions in the comment section of several chat forums after Black Myth, Deepseek.
Similar things is already happening in smaller scale in Hong Kong. 2019 is now a distant memory as Hong Konger swarm across the border into the mainland because the standard of living is so good and so affordable. Even the the expats who were quite vocal of what happened over what happened over the last 5 years are warming to China after a couple of visits.
There is absolutely no need for a hot war if the current trajectory is to continue.
I also chuckled at the last comment. It is such a contradiction with the narrative that CCP rule over the Chinese people with an iron fist and they don't have a choice in how they are governed. Honestly, pick a lane and stick to it! 😅 The level of mental gymnastics some people go through in order to say that China is a threat is bewildering.
I disagree. It is the CCP that keeps the "we must retake Taiwan" narrative alive, not the common people. Having an enemy "out there" is used to legitimize the CCP's absolute control of the country. "We" keep you safe. "They" are the enemy who will hurt you. Surrender more freedoms. Don't question. Don't protest. Serve. Bow. Because the enemy out there will get you otherwise.
I lived in China for 9 years, and this was the logic I encountered every single day.
@@BatCountryAdventures 中國是世界上最大的垃圾桶
@@BatCountryAdventures As a Chinese, I am personally against all kinds of wars. I actually prefer the status 20 years ago: we have a good relation, the government keeps improving itself because it does not want to look bad. But if Taiwan declares independency and Beijing decides to attack, I'll be on Beijing's side. We're Chinese and we know everything comes with a cost.
I don't think Taiwan is going to warm to China in the foreseeing future. People not particularly anti-China are afraid to express themselves.
About the 2019 Hong Kong riot. In the media, it's always those extremists who can have their voice. Like those DEI idiots, do you really think all people are like that? Ordinary Hong Kong people never have bad feeling towards Beijing.
The contradiction of CCP images is because these are different people, and everything is complicated. Taiwan being part of China is the collective memory of the Chinese so it's impossible to deny it. But relax, China will never be a threat as long as it's not completely democratic (western style).
@@Aleph-alphahey, I might sound stupid but I honestly want a Chinese to reply. A few days ago I had a disagreement with my wife’s father about China - can you tell me what is the freedom of speech there really like and in terms of products you can buy (general stff like groceries - meat, bananas , etc) what is the quality and availability
Good pick of an expert on the Taiwan issue!
As an ex US fab engineer I can say continual layoffs and off shoring for cheap labor killed the US semi industry. Some industry still exists in the US and it is growing due to chips act etc. The US currently seems fascinated with programming and AI.
The problem isn’t that the US is importing “the best people”, the problem is that they are also importing low and mid-level people from these countries as well, because theyre cheap and can be threatened with deportation if they try to rebel.
Also nepotism becomes a serious problem when companies (mainly those who are ran by legal immigrants) are allowed to sponsor any visa they want for a small price. They will bring their entire hometown.
It’s unfair to the American people. Of the semiconductor companies want to import the best people on the planet that’s fine. But many tech companies are importing people from India to write ToDo apps.
Lot of butt-hurt CCP propagandists in the comment section. As usual.
seriously see you guys being this dumb makes us absolutely relieved 😂
nothing especially our butt hurts
You said it Arctic fox!😀 So true.
idont think ccp budget on propaganda can even compare to CIAs.
Great information
Pyong yang is in North Korea. I’m almost sure it’s a different city that has the r&d facility.
I mean it could be a slip of the tongue but it sounds as silly as to say that Beijing is in Taiwan to those in the know.
Lex, people who can speaking very well in English, does not necessary meant they are very knowledgeable, especially those who can talk non-stop. Cheers
Both dudes don't know IT and Chinese tech capabilities either. What they talked about is quite superficial.
China is truly tech poor. It needs to steal everything. China cannot develop anything by itself
What did they say Specifically that shows they don't know real "Chinese tech capabilities"?
It’s a matter of when, not if.
I said: better, forward. Not worse. 😳
Geez, I didn't think the nerd laugh was real 10:12. These guys would make more money doing a reboot of Revenge of the Nerds.
Americans, who mostly don't travel to East Asia, don't realize how high their costs are relative to their output, relative to other counties. Often with lower work work ethic or quality. In other words, it's simply a bad value to manufacture in the US. (I worked in the chip industry in both US and Taiwan). It doesn't make sense to think the world is going to pay twice as much for electronics with more parts made in the US. That would just drive business to China and Korea.
bro what did this have to do with China invading Taiwan. wtf did i just listen to
1. Patel got his info on CN probably from India infofare source😂😂😂, I heard Lex en huh, that's comical.
2. Lex, go visit China. If you feel this is unpopular, do it quietly. See China with your own eyes, I remember you claim you are into truth. Seeing reality is truth seeking.
3. China is very complicated, no matter how ppl look at China, demonizing it is definitely not truth.
It's safe, Musk's mother is often in China. Go visit, quietly, for yourself.
Right? Right? Love this assumptive corporate speak, right? 😂
No they will not, I think they are wiser than taking that action. Only one country in the world 🌎 starts wars everywhere. People know which one.
Sometimes they can be cornered. What if Taiwan declares independency?
One country? Israel?
I wasn't too sure yesterday . But as Trump announced to take over Palestine yes this opens up the door for China to take Taiwan.
What does Gaza have to do with Taiwan? I’d love to hear how you feel the two are connected?
@@bucfan28 In the past we would expect the world to back up Taiwan, but not sure if that’s still the expectation anymore. Taiwan can’t defend on its own. The whole combination of taking over Canada, taking over Palestine, not backing up Ukraine, normalizes acts or thoughts of taking over another country, region, or territory, justly or unjustly.
@@bucfan28 If modern day colonialism is tolerated then China taking back what is rightfully theirs should also be tolerated.
You sounded like you really cared about Taiwanese people, they are really grateful I believe 😂
Every time he says "like" take a drink. And "right".
Fridges contain Microcontroller, they need not to be produced in tsmc (even europe produces them)
Lex: USAID recipient
he thinks reunification with taiwan is about those stupid semi conductor chips? I guess back in the 50s the Chinese were very concerned about those semi conductor chips too....back in the 1750s as well....
Thank you Lex, we love you!
I dont know. But I do know this. Time is not on China's side. The longer they wait, the stronger the US will be. True hypersonic missiles come out this year and I believe the standard US air to air missile covers more area than any other standard air to air missile.
So its just greed that everyone goes to tsmc to make the chips if you built more fabs the costs of fabs will go down
What if technologies past a certain level of advancements simply reach a bottleneck in a capatilist society where money is used where it ends up costing so much money, is so difficult to produce, takes such a long time, and is only able to be produced in such small numbers that in the future revolutionary devices and technologies will not be mass produced but theylle be one of a kind individual pieces commisioned by the mega wealthy not because itll have a practical montary return but just because its fun and they have the money to do it.
How is this dude qualified talking about Chinese social and geopolitical issues? Right ? Like…right?😂
At 7:30 you mention the multiplicity of chips that are out there - they're in everything these days....
We're still in the "oh boy, let's add all these lights and bells and whistles!!" stage, where every product has to be online, whether it improves the performance or not (too often it degrades performance). Hopefully we'll get over it, for example major appliances don't need to be online, don't even need microchips. Anything that reduces dependability is not an improvement....
The audacity of knowing everything. Not one maybe, perhaps or if.
Right
Right?
maybe they should not have put all the chips in one basket
Good interview, but it never addresses the title really
These guys are US policy experts, far from China experts. It's like listening to plumbers discussing stem cell research.
He yapped for whole 2 minutes and ended his sentence with "I don't bo I'm not a geopolitical expert"
An entire podcast by winging it?
right right right right right right right right right right
Sorry this guy is a charlatan haha I’m sure he has deep domain knowledge in something else though
China leads in 47 out of 54 critical technologies. It is just a short matter of time they will dominate them all. The Taiwan issue is not about the chips but sovreignity.
Watching from Taiwan 🇹🇼 This situation is so much more complex and deeper than this guy has any idea about.
However, just know this, China would need over 2 million soldiers in Taiwan to successfully occupy it (Taiwan has roughly 23 million people)
That would be nearly every soldier in the Chinese army. If they did this, every country Who has contested borders with China would immediately seize back their land. Economic sanctions during the occupation would leave the Chinese population in a worse situation than before, likely leading to unrest and eventual revolution.
At that point, China would need to send back all of their military to stop the rebellion. And therefore lose Taiwan.
This is on top of the idea that taking over Taiwan is a simple matter. It’s much much much harder than any D Day invasion and even harder to keep a supply line going.
China knows it’s best to NOT attack Taiwan, just keep threatening to do it.
the Japanese empire was able to successfully occupy Taiwan with less than 40 thousand troops. the difference in culture between the two civilizations was much greater than Taiwan and China.
the only nation that has contested land borders with China is India unless you include Bhutan, which is basically also just India.
Chinese population has gone through much worse times without revolution. the threshold for revolution is extremely high for all nations throughout history, any sociology class will tell you that you need mass starvation before revolution.
much harder than D day is a myth. Germany held large land territories with resources, Taiwan is an isolated island that does not have food security and energy security. while China has staple food security and energy security through large easily accessible coal and oil security through Russia.
23 million civilian population without arms and dependent on food and energy does not require 2 million soldiers to hold. not everyone is going to drop their jobs including essential ones to resist a culturally similar occupier. that 23 millions is 12.5 million men including babies, elderly, sick and disabled. it's 8 million men from age 15 to 64 that still needs to work to keep the lights on, keep food delivered to stores, keep the farms going, keep the hospitals going ect ect. once occupied how is Taiwan going to supply a resistance? 2 million soldiers? that is a fantasy. an isolated island is easy to occupy because the most basic wisdom is that you do not bite the hand that feed you. when the Japanese occupied Taiwan the former soldiers had no leadership and had no pay and they looted the city, there was chaos and the citizens needed the Japanese to restore order.
also has it occurred to you that China can field more military in the event of an active war? you are describing a military in peace time. during ww2 China's ROC had 14 million troops with a much smaller population, industry and economy. the USSR had nearly 40 million with a smaller population, industry and economy than today's China. be realistic man. your hypotheticals do not match history or reality.
China knows it's best not to attack because they know the art of war, and as stated in the art of war, war should be the last tool to use for a nation.
@@hzhang1228 There is no need for cock-waving. It's all about technological, economical and cultural now. There won't be a need for a hot war.
@@BatCountryAdventures there is no evidence suggesting that war is being removed from the tool belt of plutocrats. war is not about "cock-waving", successful nations are interest based not ideological or emotional based. that's just an observation of reality.
@@hzhang1228 LOL, go back behind your Great Firewall of China like a good little CCP lackey... because you're violating the spirit of the Chinese law currently, plus, you shouldn't even want to be on a big bad evil disgusting American capitalist pig platform like UA-cam anyways... LMAO
@@hzhang1228good analysis!
The one bro looks like he was born with super brain powers
right
India has a bigger male to female discrepancy than China without a one child policy, a discrepancy China did not have before the one child policy and that policy has been changed since 2013.
"Crucial to normal life." ? Hardly.
Yes
2:07 China has Russia. Which has almost all the world's resources. Only in smaller quantities. But it will be enough for the time being.
These dudes are so intelligent wtf
He probably just learns how a parrot is parroting.
15:20 😂
Regulations are why we can't build anything anymore. Intel has sprnt more on its new FAB than the last 4 FABs TMC built combined. Intel is already 3+ years behind schedule. And 20 billion over budget.
Its like the world trade center. It took a decade to build a new building. Yet it only took 2 years to build both the original buildings. The difference was it took 6 years just to get permits to build it.
The Answer is "No"
It cannot be replicated in the US
Because the demands on the Employees, the hours, the distribution of bread crumb profits to various suppliers, partners in a very specialized localized ecosystem, and the mentallmindset of Taiwan's citizens is alot different than the US.
Taiwanese view TSMC as a survival moat. You lose competitive advantage, you lose the leveraging power in Geopolitics, you give up your sovereignty to the PRC.
Is TSMC the ideal workplace for Taiwanese? Nope.
Engineers get burned out alot. But it pays the mortgage in an otherwise overly inflated Taiwanese property bubble.
Taiwan isn't problem to China, but US
THIS DUDE MISTOOK SOUTH KOREA AS NORTH KOREA LMFAO
Youre asking Dylan about Chinas geopolitical situation when Dylan says at 153 he’s not a geopolitical person. Video should’ve stopped there.
he who knows does not speak, he who speaks does not know
Lex can you make a podcast of some dude talking about the USA and if they will attack, Canada, Mexico, China, Palestine, Panama.........yea
Like like, right…right. I can’t listen to this.
Research Microunity.
If anyone try to bock from accessing chips, China will start making item overnight enough for the rest of the world with little cost.
Obviously have a cutting edge chip producer is central to making "America great again"
And Elon Musk knows the tech needs
Pyongyang, South Korea? He's an expert?
Xi Jinping, “Power Must be Caged by the System”, Qiushi, January 22, 2013:
“We should continue to catch ‘tigers’ as well as ‘flies’ when dealing with cases of leading officials in violation of Party discipline and state laws as well as misconduct and corruption problems that directly affect the people’s interests. All are equal before the law and Party discipline; whoever is involved in a corruption case must be thoroughly and impartially investigated.”
The results, after 12 years of Xi’s anti-corruption campaign?
“Corruption is RAMPANT in China!”
-Victor Gao, Al Jazeera, August 2024 in front of a live international audience.
The land of arbitrary law enforcement™️.
if China is heavily corrupted ,why shall worry China?
3 American dudes having a hard time wrapping their head around how communism really works
Communism failed so the CCP turned to nationalism to retain legitimacy.
Dylan Patel: world has been peaceful when US is the hegemony, especially in the last decade. What?
All the message with one important fact - TSMC high-end chip supply chain shall be relocated in USA. Trump is correct, US has the market demand of high end chips, therefore , All TSMC fabs shall move to USA, if considering the trade imbalance, Taiwan has over $ 200 billon trade surplus over USA, this needs to change.
Be prepared to pay much more for all electronics, to cover the 5x higher costs of doing it in America. Not to mention a very different work ethic. Taiwanese work culture expects very long work weeks, very high performance, at a fraction of a US salary.
They 100% will and nobodys going to get involved
Too generalised the so called experts comments. Anyone can also made that kind of assumtions
This guy really doesn’t like the Chinese
Boy that was a run on sentence. What you say
No.
Can’t take him serious because every 5th word is ‘right?” Nope
tech bros are not an authority on Taiwan. China has time on its side. It has international law on its side. It's got the overwhelming weight of the international community on its side. China will only adopt military action as a last resort if, and only if, Taiwan attempts a formal declaration of independence. And it is very unlikely that the Taiwan authorities will attempt to do this. With that being said, as China continues to grow and the weight of their economic, cultural and familial affiliations with Taiwan strengthen over time, a political solution will be accepted by the ROC (Taiwan) government. This is, by far, the most likely way the PRC-ROC impasse is resolved.
When the us can’t pay its bills yes
What if China just doesn't invade Taiwan aftervythe Americans placing all the bets on it?
China will not need a war to unify Taiwan, China sees the trend what's happening in the US now, and the wisdom is to just wait for the US deteriorated, until the US has absolutely no power working on Taiwan anymore, and TW will also see it that US is no longer something to count on. That's when China will unify Taiwan peacefully because of economy and every other reasons.
@MissAwa515 Taiwan is a decoy. The war is happening everywhere else in the world except in Taiwan.
@@MissAwa515 Taiwan is a decoy
With or without TSMC, China will unify Taiwan. Just look at its location, Taiwan navy was able to block Chinese maritime shipment between North and South until 1970s, meaning a shipment cannot ship from Tianjin port to Guangzhou port via Taiwan strait. And if Taiwan becomes independent, US as a Taiwan ally could put a military base there and threaten much of Chinese rich Eastern provinces. China will never allow that.
Irrespective of whether Taiwan is considered a country or not does not automatically cede the sovereignty to China.
The fact is that there are no internationally recognized treaties, policies or UN resolutions that state that Taiwan is part of China.
@@ResearchFirst-z7j that is your opinion, currently mainland China views the current situation as civil war, there is no peace treaty not even cease fire. War could happen anytime in theory.
And China is building up its military to prepare for US intervention and blockade.
@ Only facts not opinions. Prove me wrong Eisten. I bet you cannot.
Irrespective of whether Taiwan is considered a country or not does not automatically cede the sovereignty to China.
The fact is that there are no internationally recognized treaties, policies or UN resolutions that state that Taiwan is part of China.
Mao declared victory in 1949 and formed the PRC and its constitution. The war was never over Taiwan, and during this time the island legally belonged to Japan.
Taiwan was not even added to the PRC constitution until 1978?
The 1978 PRC Constitution was the first Constitution in the PRC to touch explicitly on the political status of Taiwan. It said that "Taiwan is part of China" and said that the PRC "must liberate Taiwan, and finish the great task of reunifying the motherland".
However, in 1979, the PRC dropped the liberation stance and opted for peaceful reunification instead.
The 1982 Constitution mentioned that "Taiwan is a sacred part of the territory of the People's Republic of China" instead of just "China".
The fact is the war was never over Taiwan and during the civil war the island legally belonged to Japan not China.
Once Mao died the PRC constitution was amended to state that Taiwan was part of China,
@
based on historical and legal facts, here are key points that challenge your claim:
1. Post-WWII Legal Framework
Cairo Declaration (1943): This wartime agreement between China (ROC), the U.S., and the U.K. stated that Taiwan, which was under Japanese rule, should be restored to China after WWII.
Potsdam Declaration (1945): Article 8 reaffirmed the terms of the Cairo Declaration. Japan accepted this when it surrendered in 1945.
Japanese Instrument of Surrender (1945): Japan surrendered unconditionally, thereby ending its sovereignty over Taiwan. The surrender was accepted by Chiang Kai-shek’s Republic of China (ROC) on behalf of the Allies.
2. San Francisco Peace Treaty (1951) & Treaty of Taipei (1952)
The San Francisco Peace Treaty (SFPT) officially ended Japan’s claim to Taiwan but did not specify a recipient, leading to disputes.
However, the Treaty of Taipei (1952), signed between Japan and the ROC, reaffirmed that Japan renounced Taiwan, and Taiwan remained under ROC administration.
While SFPT did not explicitly declare Taiwan as part of China (ROC or PRC), the ROC continued governing Taiwan.
3. One-China Recognition & International Agreements
The UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 (1971) transferred the “China” seat from the ROC to the PRC, recognizing the PRC as the sole representative of China, which included Taiwan.
The U.S.-China Joint Communiqués (1972, 1979, 1982) acknowledge that “Taiwan is part of China.” The U.S. follows the One-China Policy, recognizing the PRC as the sole legal government of China while maintaining unofficial relations with Taiwan.
4. ROC’s Claim & PRC’s Position
The Republic of China (ROC) Constitution, still in effect in Taiwan, claims sovereignty over all of China, implying that Taiwan is not an independent state.
The PRC Constitution (since 1982) explicitly states Taiwan is part of its territory.
The Chinese Civil War was fought between the ROC and PRC, both claiming to be the legitimate government of China, including Taiwan. While the war did not explicitly target Taiwan, its outcome led to the ROC retreating to Taiwan, which the PRC considers unfinished reunification.
5. Modern International Recognition
The majority of the world, including the UN and 180+ countries, recognize the PRC as the sole legal government of China under the One-China Principle.
Although many nations engage with Taiwan economically and unofficially, Taiwan lacks full UN membership and broad diplomatic recognition.
Conclusion
While Taiwan operates as a de facto independent entity, multiple treaties, historical agreements, and international recognition align with the PRC’s claim that Taiwan is part of China. The legal ambiguity left by the SFPT does not automatically refute PRC's sovereignty claims. Thus, based on international law and historical documents, Taiwan has been regarded as part of China, even if its governance remains separate.
@@hyuxion Irrespective of whether Taiwan is considered a country or not does not automatically cede the sovereignty to China.
The fact is that there are no internationally recognized treaties, policies or UN resolutions that state that Taiwan is part of China.
1a. Cairo Declaration (1943): The Cairo Declaration was a statement issued by the Allies (China, the United States, and the United Kingdom) during World War II. It declared that territories Japan had taken by force, including Taiwan (then called Formosa) and the Pescadores Islands, were to be "restored to the Republic of China."
Legal Status: The Cairo Declaration was a political statement, not a legally binding treaty. It expressed the intention of the Allies but did not, in itself, have the force of international law.
1b. Potsdam Declaration (1945): The Potsdam Declaration was issued by the Allies as the terms of Japan’s surrender in World War II. Article 8 of the declaration stated that the terms of the Cairo Declaration would be carried out. Japan's acceptance of the Potsdam Declaration as a condition for surrender strengthened its role as a guiding framework.
Legal Status: Like the Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Declaration was not a treaty but a political and military statement. Its enforcement depended on subsequent agreements and treaties.
Therefore, you have no argument my friend. there are no internationally recognized treaties, policies or UN resolutions that state that Taiwan is part of China.
2a: The Treaty of San Francisco: When Japan relinquished its sovereignty of Taiwan with The Treaty of San Francisco after the ROC invaded the Japanese island, China was not even invited. The treaty was signed by 49 nations including the Soviet Union but both the ROC and CCP were NOT present. FACT
2b: The Taipei Peace Treaty of 1952 Article 10 stipulates that “nationals of the Republic of China shall be deemed to include all the inhabitants and former inhabitants of Taiwan (Formosa) and Penghu (the Pescadores).”
Therefore the Taipei Peace Treaty transferred Japans sovereignty of Taiwan to ALL the inhabitants living on the island NOT to mainland China.
The inhabitants in 1952 were the ROC escapees, Taiwanese Aborigines, Japanese descendants, Dutch descendants, Portuguese descendants, previous Chinese descendants. THE ISLAND WAS NOT HANDED TO MAINLAND CHINA.
Article 10 stipulates that the ROC is deemed to be ALL inhabitants of Taiwan in which the ROC escapees were less than 20%. The ROC was a new nation which was deemed to NOT include China which too was now a newly formed country called the PRC.
Again; you have no argument my friend. lol
there are no internationally recognized treaties, policies or UN resolutions that state that Taiwan is part of China.
3A: You seem to ignore the fact that there were 3 updates not the communiques, yet you quote the initial version which was rejected by congress. As a result, the communique was updated in 1979 and again in 1982. The CCP signed ALL updated versions.
The 1982 version states: :"The Government of the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China."
This statement does NOT declare that Taiwan is a province of China. The US merely recognizes the PRC position on Taiwan, THE US POSITION ON TAIWAN IS NOT MENTIONED.
3b: “UN Resolution No. 2758 ruled in 1971, that the PRC had obtained the representation rights and all legal rights originally owned by the ROC in the UN”. It is true that UN recognition was handed to the CPC as they were the ruling government of China not the ROC . The officially written UN resolution does not state that Taiwan is part of China or even mention Taiwan as proven below:
Resolution 2758 (XXVI)
THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY.
Recalling the principles of the Charter of the United Nations.
Considering the restoration of the lawful rights of the People's Republic of China is essential both for the protection of the Charter of the United Nations and for the cause that the United Nations must serve under the Charter.
Recognizing that the representatives of the Government of the People's Republic of China are the only lawful representatives of China to the United Nations and that the People's Republic of China is one of the five permanent members of the Security Council.
Decides to restore all its rights to the People's Republic of China and to recognize the representatives of its Government as the only legitimate representatives of China to the United Nations, and to expel forthwith the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek from the place which they unlawfully occupy at the United Nations and in all the organizations related to it.
Again; you have no argument my friend. lol
There are no internationally recognized treaties, policies or UN resolutions that state that Taiwan is part of China.
4: As already stated,: Taiwan was not even added to the PRC constitution until 1978?
The 1978 PRC Constitution was the first Constitution in the PRC to touch explicitly on the political status of Taiwan. It said that "Taiwan is part of China" and said that the PRC "must liberate Taiwan, and finish the great task of reunifying the motherland".
However, in 1979, the PRC dropped the liberation stance and opted for peaceful reunification instead.
The 1982 Constitution mentioned that "Taiwan is a sacred part of the territory of the People's Republic of China" instead of just "China".
The fact is the war was never over Taiwan and during the civil war the island legally belonged to Japan not China.
Once Mao died the PRC constitution was amended to state that Taiwan was part of China, the war was never over Taiwan.
4b: Like Russia's recent changes to include Eastern Ukraine into its constitution Taiwans 1946 constitution is useless.
In 1946, Formosa still legally belonged to Japan when they wrote the constitution and the ROC were only granted a caretaker position until treaties were formalised. Taiwan's constitution stating that Taiwan is part of China has never been changed in order to maintain the status quo and maintain peace.
Again; you have no argument my friend. lol
There are no internationally recognized treaties, policies or UN resolutions that state that Taiwan is part of China.
5: Your statement is BS and it is clear that you are trying to manipulate facts.
183 countries support the US/PRC One China Policy agreement NOT the CCP manufactured One China Principle. In fact, most countries do NOT recognize the One China Principle so stop spreading propaganda my friend.
As previously stated, the One China Policy states:
"The Government of the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China."
This statement does NOT declare that Taiwan is a province of China. The US merely recognizes the PRC position on Taiwan, THE US POSITION ON TAIWAN IS NOT MENTIONED.
So, you are wrong, 183 countries do not recognize the CCP's BS claims.
Again; you have no argument my friend. lol
There are no internationally recognized treaties, policies or UN resolutions that state that Taiwan is part of China.
China has NEVER conquered Taiwan and neither did the Manchu.The fact is the war was never over Taiwan and during the civil war the island legally belonged to Japan not China.
Historically the CCP recognized Formosan independence. In 1936, when the Republic of China (ROC) was China’s government and Taiwan (Formosa) was a Japanese colony, Chairman Mao Zedong offered support to Korea and Formosa if their peoples wished to gain independence from Japan. Mao’s internationalist position suggested that 1) both Korea and Formosa have a right to independence, and 2) this is based on the right to self-determination. Mao did not claim that Taiwan has been an integral part of China for centuries, as insisted by the Chinese government today. Interview with Mao in 1936
An interview sourced from the Marxist Archive demonstrates this.
Interviewer EDGAR SNOW: “Is it the immediate task of the Chinese people to regain all the territories lost to Japan, or only to drive Japan from North China, and all Chinese territory above the Great Wall? “
MAO: “It is the immediate task of China to regain all our lost territories, not merely to defend our sovereignty below the Great Wall. This means that Manchuria must be regained. We do not, however, include Korea, formerly a Chinese colony, but when we have re-established the independence of the lost territories of China, and if the Koreans wish to break away from the chains of Japanese imperialism, we will extend them our enthusiastic help in their struggle for independence. The same thing applies to Formosa.”
Source: Marxists Internet Archive
BIG FAIL FOR YOU AND THE CCP.
The fact is that there are no internationally recognized treaties, policies or UN resolutions that state that Taiwan is part of China.
Seoul, not Pyongyang
Chips act gave billions to Intel to create jobs. Then they laid people off lol.
Who is this guest? And Lex being the guy who dived into Amazon Forest in a suit, talking about Amazon. Now you are sitting in your studio and talking about a country that is obviously one of the biggest player in town, and not even being to the country. You can only know so much by browsing websites. Come on Lex, you can do better!
What about recycling chips. America might have more chips in the landfill outside of New Jersey than Taiwan could produce in 6 months.
$$$$$
They're obsolete.
You know nothing about the manufacturing of semiconductors to even suggest such a thing.
@@Viracocha785 lol. If you are offended by my suggestion and you are not aware of the flaw in that, then you need to start focusing more internally and less on computer chips. I’d say start with therapy and maybe explore childhood trauma.
Are you mentally okay? @@spartanrh83
It isn't about semiconductors themselves. It's about the ASML photo equipment, made by the Dutch, that are not allowed to be sold to China so they can manufacture at the nano level.
China wants those tools so they can reverse engineer them. Which a foolish endeavor because that equipment is so complicated it takes a technician at least 10 years to become an expert on it.
Currently Intel can not reliably build below 12nm. TSMC is building 3nm on the reg.
Chinese EUV is already done and producting high end chips such as kirin 9010s and Ai chips 910. China chosed not to announce this in public, because, it is unnecessary to reveal their own technology advancement. China is not worried about ASML.
? Why would export control limit China? I am pretty sure China has purchased more than enough of those machines before the export bans even took place?
Harbin Institute of Technology has successfully developed 13.5 nanometer extreme ultraviolet light source technology. Harbin Institute of Technology did not just imitate the existing technology, but found a completely new direction. Different from the LPP laser plasma extreme ultraviolet light source used by Cymer in the United States and the lens technology mainly used by ASML in the Netherlands, Harbin Institute of Technology has taken its own path and used a technology called DPP discharge plasma extreme ultraviolet lithography light source.
@lijackson-x6r Undoubtedly. There's always more than one set way to accomplish the same or similar desired end result.
@ Every time China makes a technological breakthrough, it reduces costs and provides quality products to more customers, which is why the wealthy elites in the West don't like it. However, most people in the Global South would like to use these affordable and acceptable quality products. In fact, high technology is used to serve the people of the earth, and should not be a tool for the rich to monopolize profits.
Ask a India guy about China 😂 nice
Right right right right right right
He took notes from Mark cuban ...
So annoying these talking heads
Clowns
What it sounds like is if someone can find a way to design fabrication plants tht can be easily upgraded or modified to adapt to any new chips needing to be made cutting the cost by multiple factors compared to having to build an entirelt new fabrication facilities each time a new generation is released. If this could become a standard then the people doing r and d to create these new advancements could design them to be even more efficiently produced and rolled out by working with this new upgradable modular fabrication plant design. Well one thing is for sure whoever or whichever company can figure that out and convince a company to do it theylle be as rich as elon musk overnight
Bruh, respectfully, you have no idea what you're talking about, lol. This already happens and many minds greater than you or I have not only thought about this, but gone out and actually done it many times. Its not just the redesigning for when a "new generation" of chip is released, its literal paradigm shifts for when its the re-tooling and re-arrangement of the supply chains backing it that are the main bottlenecks. They already use and reuse any part of their facilities that can be used/reused... and one of the reasons why they dont just use/reuse all of their facilities is due to the economics and market cycles of them.