BREAKING: Tesla Delivery Report Disaster? Is Elon Hosting a Secret Meeting…
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- Опубліковано 25 чер 2024
- Was not expecting this from Tesla’s report.
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#Tesla #elonmusk #tsla #TeslaNews #TeslaFSD #TeslaFSDBeta #teslastockanalysis #TeslaUpdate #investing #teslanews #EV #FSD #investing Disclaimer: None of what I say should be misconstrued as any kind of financial advice or suggestions. I am not a financial advisor nor do I play one. At the end of the day I am a talking head on UA-cam and am here for your entertainment & to give my personal opinion which will probably be wrong. And I hope you stick around because you are entertained! If you think I have something wrong let's debate it, I am happy to admit when wrong. Investing and trading has risks and you should be aware of such! All partnered links are affiliated so I do make commission in case you use them :) I am long TSLA stock & derivatives. Thanks! - Наука та технологія
What are your thoughts on today’s report?
My thoughts are....
About .... 7 years ago, I posted in a forum
"The level of FUD related to Tesla will be directly proportional to the underlying success and potential of the company"
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I was expecting what I see now......
Tesla's still going to sell every car they can make. I don't think it's bad. Still way less inventory than anyone else. Would love progress for the gen 3 platform or at least when they intend to get Mexico started in the earnings call. Also curious to see why they rushed FSD rollout end of Q1 like that. I think wallstreet is going to have very high expectations that Tesla does more than gloss over weakening guidance if the stock price is to stand a chance.
Made on purpose? No delivey to keep the cars, stop selling them to start robotaxi!!
I want to buy a Tesla, but I’m broke. How is that Tesla and Elon fault because they didn’t advertise to me because they didn’t put a gun to my head and make me buy one. I’m broke people food is too high rent is too high my neighbor just lost their job. I’m a little scared.
I pick up my Model Y on Saturday. 😎
Just picked mine up this past Saturday. You're going to love it. 😄
@@josh25w Thanks 😁
Lots of reasons that the whole industry is feeling pain.
Vancouver looks beautiful! Still in on Tesla though it’s not easy at the moment.
The utter hatred for Elon by a huge percentage of the population (justified or not) is massively underrated and is without question affecting demand! The FUD machine has been very effective and is the main reason why a huge education-based advertising campaign should be implemented asap. I know Tesla has started to advertise, but it needs to be ramped quickly and aggressively!!
Potential Model Y buyers are looking at the refreshed Model 3 features and are willing to wait. That's EXACTLY why MY inventories have been rising. M3 deliveries are directly impacted about the slow refreshed ramp.
Completely agree. Me included, I want the model Y badly but Im willing to wait out for the refresh.
I dont get why Tesla gaps the time between 3 and Y refresh by that much.
I'm a Tesla bull and Musk is great, but I could see a Q1 disaster coming... I cashed out all my Tesla stock (and I'm 99% in) two weeks ago. I'll wait on cash for awhile to see how things develop in future months
My thoughts are that there will always be ups and downs. If you are selling soon, worry, if you have a long time line to sell, why care? Me personally I have invested and will take this out to 2030 and hopefully longer. Its a long road and so many great things happening.
Stock price is holding up nicely at about 165-166, lowest was 162... Looking at my other stocks that are all also down today, Tesla is not doing so bad given the really bad delivery numbers.
Note that the reasons Tesla gave are all disruptions in the supply chain. One thing they have in their own hands is the Model 3 refresh ramp up, this might have been executed better.
But important is that all these reasons are temporary, Q2 will probably be a lot better, when all these temporary supply disruptions are out of the way.
Nice to see Tesla also gave us the delivery numbers of Megapack, around 4000 is worth about 8 BILLION in revenue! (2 Million per megapack)
It will be good if Tesla gives us reassuring guidance during the earnings call later this month (April 23), and I think they will, just like in 2023.
I just bought a few more shares, and I disagree the stock price will go much lower.
They delivered 4000MWH (MegaWatt Hours) worth of Mega packs...not 4000 Mega packs.
Each mega pack is about 3.9MWH...so they delivered about 1000 megapacks total.
It will absolutely drop further. Retail is in exodus.
Best comment out hereeeee
@@78katzTesla doesn’t have to use a retail as proof of growth anymore they can now transition to Ai based growth and subscription based growth due to FSD
@@78katz I bought MORE today, most Tesla retail investors are HODLers! have a multi year outlook.
So IMHO the opposite is true, and it may even be the reason for the stock holding up so nicely.
Much love back to you, Yash. Stay strong! 🍊
I love this summary! Thanks for doing this Yashu. I like that you are a little more neutral in your bullishness. Can't wait to upload our new Interview on Sunday!
who can afford a car right now. in less than 4 years, the avg US salary needed to buy a home went from 58k a year to over 103k. food prices have doubled. interest rates are extremely high compared to the past 20 years. rent is increasing 5% to 15% per year with no end in sight. you have to be making well over 100k a year to even consider buying a new car right now. roughly 11% of the country makes over 125k a year. it doesnt take a mathematician to figure out what is happening. this isnt a tesla problem, this is a problem that is much bigger than just tesla. at least 70% of the people i know are either struggling just to buy food and pay for a place to live, and just 4 years ago that number was more like 20% of the people i knew were struggling. most people were living quite comfortably. but now the savings have been drained, and the credit cards are maxed, and people are hurting bad.
PRECISELY!!
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"SMART" people are apparently easily fooled?
@@rogerstarkey5390 na they just like predicting doom and gloom. so it drives it down even further. just like back in 2020 when the market tanked, and all these rich smart guys were on tv day after day telling people more pain is on the way, meanwhile they were buying up everything in sight. just more of the same. get people to panic sell, so they can buy it up. and 4 or 5 years later, the people that sold are gonna be kicking themselves, just like the people that panic sold near or at the bottom of 2020, and then they never bought back in because they thought more pain was coming.
hey yash you got the trial in BC, im in ontario and thought the trial was only in the states have not received any trial emails
I think FSD supervised is not q1. That message is delivered for ironing out delivery issue.
I expect 2024 would be volatile. At 38 PE, it a good buy because many of its business are on the verge of taking off the next 3 to 5 years.
57 FWd P/E which will get significantly revised
My thoughts? Pay the man. Unpaid since 2018 - 6 frickin' years.
the E part of PE will be much worse so that number is much higher than you think
Long Term !
This could have easily been a -10 day with those numbers, but it isn't, that feels rather promising.
You mean -10%?
@@darylfoster7944 yes
I would love a earnings dump.. and stsrt a postion or cash secure puts out 2 months and collect hella premiums... so i can capture rate cuts and near next earnings...
People are choosing to pay for food and rent over high-end cars. Things will improve when our political landscape changes.
Tesla is no longer “high end” because you can get a slightly used Tesla for the same price as a Toyota Corolla with how the operating cost and double the horsepower
... and interest rates making cars much less affordable had no impact ???
Think it is mostly indicative of the economy
If people aren’t buying model y with the tax credit for whatever reason (waiting for refresh for example) Tesla is Cole d
Thank you Yashu, you’re a voice of reason. Tesla is still building there will be ups and downs. It’s going to be ok in the long run. Nice to see cherry blossoms from Florida. 👍🏼
FSD is getting amazing but do people think its something they cant live without? Probably not. Tesla needs to focus on better range cars and that robot.
FJB
Not great, but I don't think I'd label it a disaster. Keep in mind that there was a terrorist event in Berlin that shut down the whole plant. February is holiday time in Shanghai and Freemont was ramping up the new Highland model 3. I'm sure the 2nd quarter will be much better.
People simply arent buying big ticket items right now. Car sales are down across the board. I want a Tesla for my wife but it doesnt make any financial sense when I have 3 paid off cars that serve our needs just fine. Im waiting for the cybertruck of course but wont buy one until i can pay for it partially with Tesla stock gains. My wifes 2017 hyundai elantra "limited ultimate" has all the features like NAV and lane keep and it was 22K discounted from 29k with a 10 year warranty. Paid off in 2 years and its only got 32k miles after driving it for 5 years. My work truck is 2005 F150 4x4 i bought new for 31k. Its only got 131k miles. Prices or rates must come down before Ill even consider financing Tesla for her. Macro matters more than people think for Tesla.
Actually lower interest rates don't really have much of a direct impact on car payments. A 2% rate drop only equates to about $40/month on a 60 month, $35k loan. I think the impact of a rate decrease is in home loans. If you refinance a $300k loan with a 2% rate drop, you save almost $400/month. That savings is an order of magnitude larger. Then you have a substantial amount of extra spending power.
He could started a lithium mining company and built a few more battery factories for what he paid for Twitter. Not to mention it would have raised the stock price instead of tanking it. Instead people got cocky and took their eye off the ball.
That's what *HE* paid for Twitter....
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You need to learn to separate HIS personal money from "Tesla".
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smh
@@rogerstarkey5390 Elon doesn’t need an apologist. When “Elon’s” money is Tesla Stock, we are philosophically talking about the same thing. Stock value and how much stock Elon sells are related.
Dealerships, all across the country can’t sell cars, but Tesla is failing mine blowing😂
TSLA has been advertising, free FSD, deliveries down, China exposure, sustained high interest rates likely until September... Don't think earnings call is going to be super awesome.
Have Elon even got paid yet? What happend with the lawyers?
No and hopefully he isn’t paid. He and the board tried to rob the shareholders.
Non car related news is coming out soon, we all know what that is❤🎉
Stock buy back time?
45k more produced than delivered in Q1 2024. Quarterly deliveries down 9% YoY first time in years (if whole year is like this, -200k deliveries compared to 2023). And last year's 37k inventory increase is also still unresolved.
FSD sales will not get traction in this year, as they have presold it to everyone who is interested to buy it. Especially USA is totally saturated.
1. Nobody can sell cars in this macro environment.
2. There were a lot of headwinds in Q1. Including a terrorist attack on the Berlin factory.
3. It's normal to have inventory, Tesla still has far less than even the best legacy manufacturers. And with growth the inventory is growing too, which means deliveries will always lag behind production.
4. FSD is already getting traction. Did you miss the huge update, the free trial, and the mandatory demo? The only question is how much the take rate will increase.
5. Totally not saturated. Around 500K cars have FSD globally, and like 1.7M cars were sold cumulatively, in the US alone. Plus Tesla is selling new cars every day.
@@andrasbiro3007 "BYD, Nio, Li and XPeng Report Deliveries Rose In March"
@@andrasbiro3007Tesla’s stock is priced for extreme growth. There’s decline this quarter. It doesn’t matter that other auto companies are suffering. It would just mean they’re probably all bad investments right now.
The FSD take rate is very low. Don't know where you get your "saturation". Only 400k out of 6M cars have FSD.
@@darylfoster7944 Tesla's own figures: they say that 19% of Tesla's in the US roads have it already. I do not expect FSD to have a much higher install base in Teslas than that. It does not give enough value to the most users - at least in the current price point. It is exactly the same with other manufacturers that offer Level 3 autonomy (vs Tesla's Level 2); those are luxury cars and still most of the customers are not opting in. Even they certainly have afford to it.
Though, maybe, if the FSD price is dropped to $20 to $50/month, they could have better market penetration. The current $200/month or $15 000 one time payment just is not an appealing offer for this kind of service to 90% of the customers (globally, yes I see that 19% above). But that kind of pricing would kill FSD financially, so that most likely will not happen.
There are many, who will take one month for free. But they have one month to think about the financial feasibility of FSD, too. So the realized FSD new sales will be miniscule - at least this year; FSD will not get full approval outside the US and Canada before 2025, anyways.
Well the fact byd had a huge delivery miss too makes me think this is a china issue actually.
Ten years from now?
Oh so basically, We retail investors are are ridiculously screwed 4 years now. FSD Frequent Serious Disengagements. Never be approved by DOT.😮
I think things will turn around when elon gets his compensation package.
Why would that matter?
So Elon is screwing shareholders until he gets his way???
Which looks worse: the Cybertruck...or the Q1 deliveries?
What are you talking about dude lol $120 ???
I really don't understand what Elon's compensation plan has to do with people not buying Tesla's anymore. That's the weirdest excuse I heard today. IMO, it's a combination of the resale value of a Tesla has plummet so much that anyone interested in upgrading to a new model is delaying it right now. The second reason is that the TAM for EV's priced at $37k and way more (up to $120k for the CT Foundation) is exhausted. Tesla can't penetrate the market of ICE lovers (still 90% of all car purchases in the US) and it can't penetrate those who want an EV but can't afford a Tesla at the current prices. Would like to hear your view on this, Yashu. PS: very nice cherry blossoms in the background, can't wait to see Vancouver myself in the summer.
I think tesla is betting on the cheap new car... How many people can really afford an expensive car like a tesla... If they want to reach milions of cars every years thats the future. Or they have switched focus on the bot and ai.
The price of a Tesla is pretty average these days, middle of the pack.
@@sdpryce in china and america maybe... The rest of the world a tesla cost over 60-70 000
A lot of people. Average new car price is $48k.
@@pse2020 the price of a model 3 SR in Germany is $46k.
@@darylfoster7944 I still think tesla needs to reach the 20-30 price for it to be able to sell to the masses if thats what they are going for.
Delaware case is expected to take around 20 months, I saw someone that had estimated timetable, but stages of the trial can be faster.
A surprise for earnings can be energy growth. We got the 4,000 MWh deployed, but deferred revenue have been really increasing over the last year and at some point projects get done and revenue flows to earnings. Maybe Energy does $2 billion revenue with 27% margin. It would really help the stock price if analysts start paying attention to energy growth.
But until earnings, I will make money with covered calls. It is a hard auto market unill we get the recession and interest rates come down.
This will be appealed to DE Supreme Court and easily up the U.S. Courts. If this lady is allowed to stand it will devastate DE incorporation base. I suspect the Delaware legislature will ultimately act too to stop this debacle to protect the Inc hub.
Happy My Ass 🆘 BS!
There is no single reason this is happening. It is a collection of reasons that have been discussed and Elon is one of them.
IMO, education is the key to success.
See you in 2025
The can’t blame production. My local Tesla store is overflowing with inventory.
They need to advertise to grow the market, but Elon refuses to and the recently squashed an attempt to have shareholders vote on advertising.
Well, the issue is that the new Model 3 production is slow and lots of people who ordered LR in Jan still haven't received a VIN yet. Cybertruck production is very limited and I think people want a new thing which the current MY is not. Inventory for the current Model Y is high which means they are still selling vehicles but not to an extent where their supply is running out (they still have an abundance even with people regularly buying).
Not sure if people are seeing new changes to Model 3 and waiting for new Model Y or if they're looking for cheaper prices/deals on current Model Ys to push towards a purchase. IMO Tesla doing these price increases on Model Y are just a FOMO tactic cause their inventory is high. They need to do some more price cuts and incentives to get people to buy more Model Y's cause I feel like the new Model 3, Cybertruck, etc are stealing the attention away.
In the US, Tesla's HUGE selling points in 2023 were the price cuts and federal EV tax credit which exploded vehicle purchases/deliveries. The start of 2024 for Tesla in the US has been unfortunate in terms of producing/delivering vehicles considering what I mentioned above.
@@liam1902You have good points, but advertising is the low hanging fruit. Last year they said that they would do “a little advertising” but I have not organically see a single ad (yes I’m aware ads exist because I follow TSLA). Yet in this past year, whenever the topic of Tesla comes up with friends, family, coworkers, I consistently hear incorrect information about EVs/Tesla. No one should be more interested in correcting this information than TSLA, but Elon’s bias against ads/MSM/FB/etc is preventing TSLA from doing a real advertising campaign.
@@TSLApilot So Tesla's attempts at advertising last year were an absolute joke cause I saw nothing. In the past few months, they have been advertising on different platforms such as ads on UA-cam, Facebook (just started very recently), X, etc and the Tesla team doing live streams for new/noob EV prospective buyers.
The big concern is that the young people know the right information about EVs but the older people do not and that's the issue. Tesla is advertising on social media where the younger people are and the extreme diehard Tesla fanboys so I don't see how this is working great to target everyone.
The older adults have money so Tesla needs to find a way to target them and correct misinformation about prices, charging, etc. Almost every older person I've talked to (including Tesla owners) thinks Elon is a lunatic/psycho so that does sometimes overshadow a lot of things.
@@liam1902 well, if you're 60, and watch MSM, of course you're going to think Elon is a lunatic. That message is promoted 24/7. Not much different than when they told you 24/7 that the hospitals were overflowing.
Tesla no longer has 30% margins. It's no longer growing qoq. And no, FSD is not improving. Everyone wants to argue that fact but all you need to do is look at community data on avg DE rate.
Name a manufacturer that has "30% margins".
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Compile a list of "industry leading margins".
Is Tesla there?
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Stop complaining.
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As for FSD, every driver I've seen (who isn't an idiot) disagrees with you.
You have not tried 12.3?
@rogerstarkey5390 they can disagree all they want. Data is data. Improve DE or you're just telling me you eat crayons.
@srqnate I don't need to try it. Community tracking data needs to show improving DE rates. Not a hard concept. You guys are incredibly dumb.
@@rogerstarkey5390Tesla stock is priced for extreme profit growth. It isn’t there in margins. It isn’t there in quantity of sales. It needs to start coming from somewhere fast or the stock will continually get downgraded.
It is about battery density, charge speeds and availability. People are still buying hybrids. Tesla hasn’t substantially improved battery tech. FSD is the only saviour, perhaps energy business as well. Elon’s antics aren’t helping either
Elon's "antics" are meaningless. CATL is working on a new generation of batteries that charge faster and work better in the cold. Battery technology will continue to improve for decades.
Aside from Elon’s compensation overhang - how about deeper introspection on the very real possibility Elon has outlived his value to Tesla as CEO? Perhaps a president (eg Gwynne Shotwell at SpaceX) or new CEO is appropriate at this stage, while Elon focuses on product development and engineering.
I think this would be great for the company and for the stock... But The only thing Elon is focusing on is "woke virus" shit...
Elon never wanted to be the CEO of Tesla, he said this many times over the years. He does it because he couldn't find anyone who could and would do it.
And it doesn't matter much. Elon is still the face of his companies.
tsla is dead money
When Musk focus on TSLA instead of posting his shit on X, TSLA will get better. All these excuses are total bs
You are so incredibly wrong
pump pump pump bad news pump pump pump.
Elon's stubborn refusal to form a PR department is partially to blame. Most people
still do not know that Tesla sells affordable vehicles. (the advertising effort is feeble)
Tesla is running at 17 days in inventory (US)
*SEVENTEEN* compared to "the best" listed in industry stats.... Toyota is normally cited as the best.... Some say as low as 27... Some as high as 45
(Lower is better..... Tesla is never shown🤔)
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Bear in mind, you have to build a vehicle, then get it to the customer....
I'd argue that 17 days is about as close as you get to "sell what you build, as fast as you can build it"?
PR doesn't help. Advertising helps. But you can't just throw billions at the media and expect results, you have to be smart and strategic. Tesla is testing various platforms and ads, to see what works, and gradually increase ad spend. It's not like they are going bankrupt, the company is still profitable even with all the huge R&D projects.
@@rogerstarkey5390Tesla has throttled production. In light of that it’s irrelevant what their other inventory stats are. They are reducing inventory supply because they can’t sell additional cars at the price point they want.
Why do you call it fsd is it really fsd no tesla 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭😭Tesla/ titanic
1. Are you 12? Only kids overuse emojis.
2. You are clueless about FSD. Watch the latest videos and read the user reports.
Who cares what it's called? Look at the product.
Just more fud about Tesla.