⭐️ Updated SF1 Qualifier Predictions | Eurovision 2024
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- Опубліковано 6 чер 2024
- I give my updated SF1 predictions after having seen the rehearsals live
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Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
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I CAN’T BELIEVE IT’S TODAY!!!
Yes, extremely excited 😅
Mean either
I don't give up on Slovenia. I plan to vote for them, Portugal and Ireland today 🙏
Also love the small board
Slovenia needs every vote it can get. So ty from Slovenia❤
@@lucija2106 I may vote for Slovenia too, I just fear it wont get enough votes from my country (Finland) to get actual points from here, and then my money will be wasted (votes cost 1 euro here) :/ But then if everyone thought that way, nobody would vote, so I guess I'll just need to go for it anyway 😅
I voted for Slovenia, we’re happy here
OMG TOM!! congrats for Ireland!!!! you must be so thrilled!!!!!
Coming back after the semifinal, and holy crap, you almost nailed it Tom!
Yeah he did a great job, switch Slovenia (which I doubt were higher than 9th) with Poland and spot on!
Seems really fair tbh. Really hope Serbia doesn't become a surprise NQ.
I'm praying to the Eurovision gods Slovenia wualifies
Prayer circle 🙏🏻 🤞
Congrats it happened
Raiven did so well 👏
Swap Slovenia and Cyprus (or Poland) and then this would be my dream qualifiers❤
I agree 👍 hi from Poland 👋
@@vixwza8553 🫶
Hi back from Germany
Well congrats!!!
girl you got your wishes
Congratulations it looks like you got your dream qualifiers.
Mercifully, Serbia's bandaid was ripped off so fast we didn't even have time to be nervous. We were cry-laughing with Bambie though. 🥹
Congrats, Ireland.🎉 Congrats, Bambie.🎉 Congrats,Tom.🎉🥂
Only one artist from the first half didn't qualify. This has to be some sort of record.
Damn you are good. Almost spot on, only “mistake” being Poland/Slovenia.
Praying for Teya and Raiven please vote for them, we can let poland go right? cyprus too
As a Romanian I voted as part of the rest of the world. 1 vote for Ireland amd 4 for Slovenia. I would have voted for Australia as well, but the way things are...I wanted to 'maximize' Raiven's chances
Qualify the witches !
Never clicked a video so fast - because I forgot to update my own predictions!
Fingers crossed that the Phantom of the Opera doesn't sneak backstage and cut the power cord on Bambie Thug's candle chandelier again :(
also... i fell in love with portugal yesterday, first time it "clicked" for me 🤍🇵🇹
The cost of voting also varies in different countries, which can impact the results. In the UK, it costs only 15p to vote, but last year in Finland the cost was €1.00 and in Estonia as much as €1.70.
Wow, haven't heard of this before : o An issue that should be addressed...?
@@oruncel Yes, indeed. I voted only once because of the cost, and in the final probably only 1-2 votes. In some countries people vote multiple times because it is cheap.
I didn't remember the difference being so big. I think it's 1) unfair for the voters and 2) can affect the results. Is it the national broadcasters who get to decide the cost? I'm sadly surprised this is allowed and not talked about more
I remember trying to vote from the rest of the world last year and it was like 2 or 3 times more expensive than it was when I voted from Australia
Not matter what this is going to be an amazing ESC season ❤ Underdog stories can be fairytale
Terrific review as always. I totally agree with your selections of Q and NQ. Would love to be there. Enjoy and have fun!
Ireland a definite yes 😁😁🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪
It’s probably a win 🏆
NO!!! What do you see artistically in all that satanic performance?!? This is disturbing both to the eyes and the ears and has absolutely nothing to do with the art!
Most youtubers compare Raiven and Bamby as two witches and I think it is a big mistake. Because people who are seeing these songs for the first time, they will not connect those two songs at all, and will perceive them in their own way... I agree Slovenia is not as impactful staging wise as Ireland, but I think it will be a relieve for people to see more clean, simple aestetics.. some photos give me feeling of renesanse pictures..
first half is anyway soooo overloaded with stuff, that different aesthetics of Raiven will be in her advantage .. at least I hope!!
To be honest i find the term "wine mums" rather sexist.
I'm a mum & i want Ireland to go through, please people vote for Bambie!
And i think Iceland's offering this year is boring.
But then again i like Hatari.
Totally agree about "wine mums", it's not only sexist but quite derogatory! :( Not all who have kids have such a bad taste as that. (Btw I love Hatari & rock / metal as a mum too, but then again I'm from Finland ;))
Fantastic as always Tom 😊 You're doing great work out there for us here at home ☘️🇮🇪🤗
I have the same Q and NQ predictions like you, but in a slightly different order:
1. Croatia 🇭🇷
2. Ukraine 🇺🇦
3. Lithuania 🇱🇹
4. Serbia 🇷🇸
5. Ireland 🇮🇪
6. Luxembourg 🇱🇺
7. Finland 🇫🇮
8. Portugal 🇵🇹
9. Cyprus 🇨🇾
10. Poland 🇵🇱
11. Slovenia 🇸🇮
12. Australia 🇦🇺
13. Azerbaijan 🇦🇿
14. Moldova 🇲🇩
15. Iceland 🇮🇸
The fact that it never happened that the 3 first songs and all the first half qualified doesn't mean it won't happen, because there is always first time.
Ahhh, when I saw you updated your list, I had feeling you were moving Ireland up! :-)
Have so much fun tonight 💙🪩
My prediction:
1. Croatia
2. Ukraine
3. Finland
4. Lithuania
5. Ireland
6. Poland
7. Portugal
8. Luxembourg
9. Cyprus
10. Serbia
11. Slovenia
12. Azerbaijan
13. Australia
14. Moldova
15. Iceland
Great analysis. Yes, I basically agree with 9/10 of your qualifiers. I would only put my neighbours Slovenia 🇸🇮 as borderline YES and Cyprus🇨🇾as borderline NO although I think that something is missing in Raiven's performance. But who knows,easily this semi could be historical (7/7 Q from first half). And I would also like that Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 become surprise Q,maybe their great visuals can help them a bit. Also I think that Iceland🇮🇸 is also DEF NO, like Moldova🇲🇩.
And for the end Tom, congratulations to Ireland🇮🇪. See you in finally in grand final.😺😺
Vote 🇵🇹 Portugal, Iolanda and Grito are so stunning, best song in semifinal 1. Also loving Croacia and Serbia.
Thank you for your videos and analyses. My 13 yo son has grown to become a really big Eurovision fan, and your videos make me able to keep up with him some in the diskussions :D Btw, he hangs out in a youth center where they have a competition where they guess the qualifiers. Now we know he got 9 out of 10 right. He did´t think that Cyprus would go threw, but that Poland would.
Yea Poland was the one that most people tripped up on
SOOOOOO CLOSE TOMMMMM 🤏🤏🤏
I hate that Ireland will likely be the 10th one they announce 😂
Yep it's definitely what's gonna happen , they also gonna announce some unsure qualifier (Poland or Cyprus) first, so some people gonna be anxious who is out
It's usually Finland, don't worry 😜 (I remember a few very nerve-wracking result announcements...)
@@DramaticTeacup
Yeah. The 9th qualifier is usually one that surprises everyone, so that could be Australia or Iceland. Then they announce a fan favourite
@@kharma101 I actually meant 1st announced qualifier (like Albania last year) , but whatever
It will be Luxembourg
Tom - what do you make of the cut away from Marko on ‘Miaow Cat please miaow back’? To me it seems like they really missed an opportunity to see it to the audience.
9/10, not bad😄 I also predicted 9/10 (same mixup as you)
In an alternate timeline we would've been there today with my mom. In reality I'm home on my own watching ESC alone for the first time ever. Just this SF though, I will be going back to home town later this week fortunately and get to watch the rest with her. This year has been a slack for a bunch of reasons not all of which have to do with the state of the world at large. I'm way behind on the details and stats and all, and very uncharacteristically going with a bare minimum mindset this year. So I'm glad to see you having fun out there and being excited! It's really infectuous. So enjoy your time for both of us too, and stay safe!
💜
I'm voting for Cyprus and Poland! Happy Eurovision Tom!
I'm very happy for Ireland. Was in my top 5 from the start. I didn't expect they'd go and own the stage like that. GO Witch GO!
Sloveniaaaaaa😢
I feel this semi was easy enough to get the majority correct. Ended up getting nine correct.
Considering that the 9/10/11 spot are Portugal-Slovenia-Cyprus. Putting Cyprus out based on that all 7 song first songs stat seems pretty wise.
My predictions are exactly the same, and I would be quite happy with these. I just want Azerbaijan to qualify instead of Cyprus, otherwise this would be perfect
I'll be throwing my votes at Azerbaijan today and hoping for a miracle haha
Don't waste votes by Voting Azerbaijan and give them to Slovenia, Serbia or Australia who definitely need them
@@Serge.Song.Contest.got.Recaps I don’t enjoy any of those songs, so, Azerbaijan it is
Nearly similar we have our qualifiers only 1 I think Australia will make it instead of Cyprus I just can't see countries from 1 to 5 running order to qualify I think Poland will make it now instead of Slovenia
Who I think will qualify
Ukraine
Croatia
Lithuania
Ireland
Luxembourg
Poland
Finland
Portugal
Australia
Serbia
I still think Serbia is also in trouble of not qualifying I hope not I would be very sad if this does not qualify
NQ
Moldova
Iceland
Azerbaijan
Cyprus
Slovenia
I agree with you on Moldova and Iceland I can't see people voting for this
Slovenia she has great vocals but the song isn't strong enough in my opinion
Cyprus I don't think it will qualify I think it will be forgotten who knows maybe it will qualify
Azerbaijan I find the staging extremely confusing and I hope they keep on singing there native language although Azerbaijan is another country not great in televotes
One aspect regarding Poland which might make it more likely to go through, which I have not seen anybody mention, is that I have been getting A LOT of ads on UA-cam with Luna's full music video (I think I've seen the original 5 or so times and once I even got the acoustic version). This is of course compared to a combined 0 from all other contestants. This makes me believe that there is someone/something (likely a record lable or the Polish broadcaster) willing to push every button to attempt to force the song through to the finals. If this PR campaign is successful in making the general audience more aware of the song before the semi final starts, then it is likely to in turn turn in to more votes for Luna, which is why I have it as a likely. (knowledge increases enjoyment, which in turn increases the likelihood of it becoming someone's favourite, which means more votes)
I thought the same. When I play the Eurovision playlist, Luna's song comes as ad a crazy amount of times. Today I got Israeli contestant's ad once, but she was just reacting to UA-camrs' reactions and asked for votes. I think Luna's ad was better. However, I still think that song is just a normal radio song, nothing special to me. I don't care if it goes to the finals or not.
Personally i hate it. Have got them way more than that, all three of them. This is what Israel is doing as well. Did i mention yet that i HATE it?
For me it works the opposite way;"you try to shove this down my throat? Get lost!"
But i'm aware that it can indeed be a successful strategy, otherwise advertisements wouldn't exist.
So it might work, if only on a subconscious level;"hey i've heard that before!"
@@LeafHuntress Yeah, but as Tom said many times. You cannot vote songs you don't like. I think Luna's strategy will work (but obviously there will be people who won't like her for the ad).
I hope Slovenia go to the final so much! Can't vote tonight! Have a great night Tom
Me neither I cannot vote today, keeping all my fingers crossed for Slovenia!! ❤😢
How do you think Oreland will do? I'm not sure if I'm that impressed by Oreland...
🇷🇸’s IN! 🌸
Love to see your reaction when Ireland Qualifies lol 🎉🎉
Well predicted. You only got one pair of countries wrong. I got two pairs wrong. When they started announcing the countries, I knew there was going to be one shock non-qualifier. It turned out to be Poland.
I got actually 9/10 right (🇦🇺 instead of 🇸🇮)
CROWN THE WITCH 🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪👑👑👑👑👑👑🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆
We have the same countries qualifying worried about Cyprus 🇨🇾 and Serbia 🇷🇸
I'm just scared that Ireland won't appeal to the casuals, I would put it in likely yes (and prob to make the board have more symmetry)
@@painpapadopoulos8120 Did u watch the vid? Tom put it in def yes
I think you're wrong about Portugal and that's going to help Slovenia, but otherwise I fully agree.
I agree with your prediction but I’d swap Cyprus with Iceland, Australia or Slovenia because Cyprus going first and right after Chanel and Eleni Foureri is not helping either
Very good prediction, I would agree on most of it, but I would swap Poland with Slovenia. I just think Raiven vocals are much better than Luna’s and Slovenia might get help in votes from Croatia and Serbia.
Well you were right❤
Impeccable!
Congrats
I would predict the same at this point, but am quite worried about Serbia by the reaction it has got. However, it doesn't seem like there is a great alternative, Australia the only chance I think but the song is much weaker. It is running order and more upbeat vs diaspora (albeit only 20 ish points) and better song
Well, Portugal is a very clear & obvious alternative, they are VERY similar songs (that and Serbia). So I really don't believe both will get through, only one or the other... But let's see.
The reaction seemed fine to me
#Crownthewitch
I also guseed 9/10. I predicted Poland instead Cyprus.
the thumbnail spoilers oml
Hearts will be broken if Raiven doesn't qualify. I wish all of them could qualify.
IRELAND, so happy to support u guys this year 😍💚🤍🧡
Cyprus passes to the final ❤❤❤
Omg Ireland wow 🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪🇮🇪 I am still watching Ireland's performance two days later 🤣🤣
voting Ireland and Lithuania tonight, provided they smash the live!
Super close to my own ones Tom! I decided we were unlikely to get all 7 from first half but it is so difficult to know what to leave out. I opted to move Cyprus out and Australia in - but I do wonder if it might be Serbia that end up 11th… So tricky!
My own ones:
ua-cam.com/video/-tLgMk9GN1g/v-deo.html
🌸💜🌸🇷🇸🌸💜🌸
Magical... 🎵🎶🎵
Would've been spot on if Poland and Slovenia were swapped lol
I will be so sad if Slovenia doesn't get in 😭
To me Lithuania is definitely qualifying
Go Ireland🎉🎉🎉🎉!!!!
I also had 9! I thought Poland would be in & Finland out.
And how wrong you were 😂 Don't know how anyone in their right mind would have predicted Finland out, but anyway, we showed to all the haters.
@@florenna are you dumb? I wasn't hating. I was going by what the general fandom were feeling, and a lot of people didn't like it. I didnt say I didn't like it. I hated the Polish song.
Just because you love something doesn't mean that you should go round making stupid remarks under an innocent comment 🙄
Here are my predictions for SF1
Cyprus 🇨🇾 ❌
Serbia 🇷🇸 ✅
Lithuania 🇱🇹 ✅
Ireland 🇮🇪 ✅
Ukraine 🇺🇦 ✅
Poland 🇵🇱 ❌
Croatia 🇭🇷 ✅
Iceland 🇮🇸 ❌
Slovenia 🇸🇮 ✅
Finland 🇫🇮 ✅
Moldova 🇲🇩 ❌
Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 ✅
Australia 🇦🇺 ❌
Portugal 🇵🇹 ✅
Luxembourg 🇱🇺 ✅
Thanks, Tom. You rock, man.
Because of the opening acts, I fear Cyprus and the ballads are going to take a hit. My qual predictions: Croatia
Ireland Ukraine Australia Lithuania Luxembourg Iceland Azerbaijan Slovenia Finland.
Iceland? How on earth is Iceland going to get more points than Portugal or Serbia?
@@christianglas1584 Because something weird and unexplainable usually happens.
@@trao1938 It didn't happen.
@@christianglas1584 no shit.
@@christianglas1584 no, really?
SF1: 1st-15th: Croatia-Ukraine-Ireland-Lithuania-Finland-Luxembourg-Portugal-Poland-Serbia-Cyprus / Australia-Slovenia-Azerbaijan-Moldova-Iceland
SF2: 1st-16th: Netherlands-Israel-Greece-Switzerland-Georgia-Norway-Armenia-Estonia-Austria-Belgium / San Marino-Denmark-Malta-Czechia-Albania-Latvia
Final (depends a lot on running order, so subject to change): 1st-26th: Croatia-Ukraine-Ireland-Italy-Switzerland / France-Netherlands-Israel-Norway-Greece / Georgia-Sweden-Portugal-Armenia-Lithuania / UK-Finland-Austria-Cyprus-Poland / Belgium-Estonia-Serbia-Germany-Luxembourg-Spain
Jury: France
Tele: Croatia
This all changed a lot from my pre-rehearsals (Finals top 10 was Switzerland-Italy-Netherlands-Ukraine / Croatia-Norway-Israel-Ireland-Sweden) but Netherlands+Switzerland crumbled their staging (Netherlands is still good, but didn't like up to the hype) and Ireland, Croatia, Ukraine, Georgia did better than expected (especially Ireland, who I expected to do better than anticipated in the first place). Im shocked at how people are only now realising how good Bambie is after being able to do as good as they did do in Ireland's awful national final and display a clear vision, into arguably one of the best song revamps ever adding a lot of hard-hitting elements, into amazing staging coming through via their vision.
Think Germany will yoink enough jury points to beat out Luxembourg and spain, I'll be shocked if it gets more than 5 televote points though. Spain hasn't made any positive changes since the national final and I feel like its gone downhill slightly in places, on top of competing with a lot of "televote friendly" songs in the final, to get ~5 jury and ~20 televote points max. Luxembourg is carried in SF1 by its running order but assuming it doesn't get as lucky in the final, I think they'll be at the bottom
---
Originally didn't have Portugal to quality from SF1 here despite it being my personal favourite this year but Iolandia is a queen and made some perfect improvements in small areas, Had Slovenia instead of Serbia but Slovenia's is just disappointing enough to miss out over Serbia who have more allies but a worse running order (which is also slightly less disappointing in terms of the performance). 7th-12th in SF1 is still quite difficult to say, the running order may give Australia and Slovenia the edge to qualify and Poland might suck enough to not be carried by diaspora
Had Belgium to not qualify from SF2 with Malta in its place due to his near drunken performaces at the pre-parties, but Belgium should have done just enough (despite still not having the vibe from the studio version) combined with the running order difference to sneak on in. San Marino's staging looks like it'll be good enough to be the main country for an outside chance
1 wrong, quite good hehe
Slovenia and Serbia must be in the final
I predict Serbia won't go through, but Slovenia will.
Hell no
Me too, or rather, that's what I hope for (sorry) 😉 As I prefer it, as a song.
NQ: Moldova - Iceland - Cyprus - Azerbaijan - Australia
You have 5 in your borderline YES but we can't have 5 borderline yes acts hahaha...what is borderline qualifier anyway? Is that like 9th and 10th? is 8th place considered as Borderline yes?
I JUST NEEM RAIVEN IN PLEASEEEEE😢😢😢
Cyprus deserves to be in the final!
All my votes will be going to slovenia 🙏 Im thinking that serbia wont make it
Azerbaijan and Cyprus are my borderlines that I want to go through. I really don't want Finland to pass.
Cyprus and Iceland are definitely not going through. Both are basic, generic, and uninspired. Slovenia must go through to the final. It will be unfair if they don’t get enough votes. I don’t understand why Azerbaijan is not popular. The song is beautiful with this subtly exotic and ethereal undertones, the traditional singing is impeccable, and there is no other song like this, this year. Ireland and Ukraine are pure perfection!!!!!
Portugal ❤❤❤soo beautiful ❤❤❤ thanks
Hi thanks for Ukraine ❤🇺🇦
Please vote for Slovenia 🙏🙏 I'm in Italy I can't 😭
My prediction
1. Croatia 🇭🇷
2. Ukraine 🇺🇦
3. Ireland 🇮🇪
4. Lithuania 🇱🇹
5. Portugal 🇵🇹
6. Finland 🇫🇮
7. Luxembourg 🇱🇺
8. Slovenia 🇸🇮
9. Poland 🇵🇱
10. Cyprus 🇨🇾
11. Serbia 🇷🇸
12. Australia 🇦🇺
13. Iceland 🇮🇸
14. Azerbaijan 🇦🇿
15. Moldova 🇲🇩
I don't think both Portugal and Serbia qualify.
I thought so too, but unfortunately they did :( Meaning Serbia, it's so boring & forgettable that I really didn't want it in the final.
I have 9 I’m super confident in: Cyprus, Lithuania, Ireland, Ukraine, Poland, Croatia, Finland, Portugal and Luxembourg. And I really struggled with my 10th pick bc the six remaining songs I really didn’t fancy my chances with. So I said “f it” and went for Slovenia knowing full well I’m gonna be wrong.
I set myself a rule to have at least one NQ in the first half and for me Serbia had to fall. I know a lot of people think this is too good to fail but life isn’t fair.
Doomsday blue is still a very divisive song. I really can't see who other than some eurofans that will vote for Ireland
Goths
@@KylieWilson I think the goths would have preferred Ailsha
@@henning1152 Me too, TBH :(
i am sad about Azerbaijan I like the ethnic style, let's see what happens.
I really like the song, but I'm not crazy about the staging.
Here is my chosen 10 qualifiers for the 1st Semi Final this evening in random order :
1. 🇸🇮. Slovenia
2. 🇱🇹. Lithuania
3. 🇨🇾. Cyprus
4. 🇫🇮. Finland
5. 🇵🇹. Portugal
6. 🇭🇷. Croatia
7. 🇮🇪. Ireland
8. 🇺🇦. Ukraine
9. 🇱🇺. Luxembourg
10. 🇦🇿. Azerbaijan
Finland out
NO, most definitely & deservedly in, you hater 😂
This is my prediction and I’m really happy with it
1. Croatia 🇭🇷
2. Ukraine 🇺🇦
3. Ireland 🇮🇪
4. Lithuania 🇱🇹
5. Finland 🇫🇮
6. Portugal 🇵🇹
7. Luxembourg 🇱🇺
8. Poland 🇵🇱
9. Cyprus 🇨🇾
10. Slovenia 🇸🇮
11. Serbia 🇷🇸
12. Azerbaijan 🇦🇿
13. Australia 🇦🇺
14. Iceland 🇮🇸
15. Moldova 🇲🇩
Cyprus is overrated, Serbia is safe...
Your magnet formation looks like north and South America. Not important….
Bambie for the Crown 👑 ✨️ ☘️🇮🇪❤️
I dont think Finland will qualify 🙊
Only because you don't like it 🙄🙊 Yeah right. Really hope we will show all you haters!!
@@florenna No, I mean I understand many find it funny but I dont think there will be many active voters for it. Same with Portugal tbh. I dont have any hate for the songs though this is just my opinion
@@Luna-ii4mx OK, but you were proven wrong, anyway, and how greatly too 😅 I could actually wager FI was one of the most voted songs last night, so many seem to love it, even some who disliked it before, but then again we cannot know the full results yet.
NQ: Cyprus, Slovenia, Iceland, Moldova, Azerbaijan
Ukraine 💙💛
Ireland top 3 in semi fr
Croatia winer
Cyprus should go through. Please Europe vote for Cyprus 🇨🇾 ❤