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That may me laugh, I am also worried re the extraordinary insistence it’s going to be a “turkey shoot” as the Americans say, it makes me nervous, also the market of late seems to be erratic and not just a slower pace confidence leading to a graceful growth, it seems jumpy to me. ,
@@alexm7310 The sanewashing of Trump and his clown car of a cabinet is incredible! Do people really think they could successfully implement a pro-business agenda even if they wanted to?
Thanks for sharing such valuable information! Could you help me with something unrelated: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (mistake turkey blossom warfare blade until bachelor fall squeeze today flee guitar). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?
Hi Ramin. In previous videos you've done a lot of content on bonds and whether a pension fund should hold all equity or a split of equity and bonds. I've found this really useful. But the picture does change and I wondered now whether the accepted position is still all equity, or are there any reasons to introduce bonds back into a pension fund now - has anything changed?
Hi @danhaire3064 the equity/bond split isn't _ever_ clear-cut. It depends on so many things - when you need the money (investment horizon), risk appetite (emotional capacity to bear loss), risk capacity (economic capacity to bear loss) and your personal preferences. So there is no accepted position. But the general principles are that the further out in time you need the money, the higher your risk appetite & risk capacity the more equity you would hold relative to bonds. Those principles are timeless. Thanks, Ramin.
Rates still very high. Don't see it being 3% in the UK until 2028. Plus gas prices continue to be a problem. High rates are stifling growth & doesn't fix the root cause, plus drives debt & mortgage costs higher!
The most interesting thing was seeing the projection for Swiss interest rates. Is that because they don't start printing CHF at the first sign of a crisis ?
Hi @MrDuncl Switzerland is seen as a safe haven which is why I think its interest rates are relatively low compared to other European countries (excluding Germany). Thanks, Ramin
Hi @eddiekeeling-g4z if you're a sterling investor then a stronger dollar (versus sterling) increases the value of your global equity ETF and a weaker dollar reduces its value. Thanks, Ramin.
Do you pay much heed to warnings of a market crash/recession in 2025? The (US) charts on joblessness, homebuilding and just the fact that a recession has always followed a stock market this expensive/inflated. All the signs seems to point to the market being ripe for a major pullback.
Hi @dylanevans5644 recession isn't on the radar right now in developed markets. It will happen eventually of course, but at the moment growth and the outlook for growth look pretty good. The equity market can pull back without a recession occurring or it could just grow more slowly to give earnings a chance to catch up which wouldn't be a terrible outcome. Thanks, Ramin
Ideally, Trump won't have to implement tariffs at all. He wants to negotiate a better deal for the US rather than us paying massive tariffs and our jobs leaving the most successful economy in history.
We might already be seeing that with Chinese EVs. In the last year Polestar, BYD, Jaecoo, and Omoda have all become available locally (U.K. South Coast)
Hi @ronsilva7394 I think Trump's plan is that Americans will buy more domestically produced stuff which will probably cost more as a result of higher labour costs. Thanks, Ramin.
Hi @fredatlas4396 I believe Europe is the second-largest market. This is revenue in Q4 2024 Americas 42% Europe 25% Greater China 15% Japan 6% Rest of Asia Pacific 7% Data here www.statista.com/statistics/382175/quarterly-revenue-of-apple-by-geograhical-region/ Thanks, Ramin.
That would make a change in the UK, average wages haven't been keeping up with inflation since about 2009. We need some bigger wage rises just to get back to where we were in 2007. The only way to get real growth in the UK economy is to grow the wages of ordinary working class people, they will spend money into the economy provided they have enough spare capital left over each month
European countries are growing by typical low Christian rate of growth. Similar to India a few decades ago, when India was growing at a low Hindu rate of growth.
Interesting to see uk rate will be around 3%, while the growth is currently around 0. And it is considered a good. While some developing countries grow at much higher pace,considered as bad… 😂
I'm waiting with baited breath for what the heck Trump is going to do about tariffs. Having hundreds of thousands of SIPP money invested in S&P 500 and global trackers I am having trouble sleeping well at night.
China's growth "relatively weak" at expected 4.7% GDP growth.... emerging markets "lacklustre" at 4.2%.... ummm...ok... I guess everything is relative. Interesting predictions, although my own expectations for 2025 is more negative... possible trade wars, SP500 bubble burst etc. I just hope the inflation doesn't get back up, been lately loading heavily on global bond funds... well, if it does, I guess that just means better long term profits from bond funds. Well, we'll see soon...
I think I heard Trump won't be doing that. Which would make it just another lie. And now that he's supposedly been elected, he can do whatever he wants. Shame on anyone who listens to a single word of what politicians say, I guess.
Considering many illegals work in construction and agriculture and they'd have to be replaced with locals whom contractors would need to pay more, I'd say the cost of food and housing would go up.
Hi @Silver_Man_69 yes they are - see pages 11 and 12 www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024 e.g. for the US "The resilience of consumption is largely the result of robust increases in real wages (especially among lower-income households) and wealth effects" and for the euro area "Rising real wages are expected to boost consumption, and a gradual loosening of monetary policy is expected to support investment." Thanks, Ramin.
Hi @freebo27 IMO the problem with Labour's plan for growth is that it's not bold enough. So at best I'd expect a weak boost to growth. Policies that would make a material difference, such as joining the EU customs union to boost exports, have been ruled out. Thanks, Ramin.
@@PensioncraftI think the problem is that their policies seem designed to stifle growth, e.g. the jobs tax. But let’s wait and see, I for one am not investing in a single UK company, because I fear this government are clueless and will damage the economy.
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How can they get forecasts right when the historical data is constantly revised?
They can't forecast to any useful degree when the historical data isn't revised 😉
Thanks for the rundown, Ramin. Hope you have an excellent 2025.
Same to you @JT_Soul
All analysts agree that 2025 is going to be a great year for growth.
So I'm going to assume there's going to be a massive crash ;)
8-)
That may me laugh, I am also worried re the extraordinary insistence it’s going to be a “turkey shoot” as the Americans say, it makes me nervous, also the market of late seems to be erratic and not just a slower pace confidence leading to a graceful growth, it seems jumpy to me. ,
...with Trump in the WH, let's get used to erratic! 😂
Wow smart observation!
@@alexm7310 The sanewashing of Trump and his clown car of a cabinet is incredible! Do people really think they could successfully implement a pro-business agenda even if they wanted to?
Happy New Year Ramin and thanks for all your useful financial information.
Happy new year @MarkCW
Thanks Ramin, happy new year. Thanks for sharing your perspective. I always learn from you. Thank you.
Hi @lornaprince8123 Happy New Year to you too! Thanks, Ramin
I've dialed my global equity down a little in favour of fixed income.
Thanks for sharing such valuable information! Could you help me with something unrelated: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (mistake turkey blossom warfare blade until bachelor fall squeeze today flee guitar). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?
Hi Ramin. In previous videos you've done a lot of content on bonds and whether a pension fund should hold all equity or a split of equity and bonds. I've found this really useful. But the picture does change and I wondered now whether the accepted position is still all equity, or are there any reasons to introduce bonds back into a pension fund now - has anything changed?
Hi @danhaire3064 the equity/bond split isn't _ever_ clear-cut. It depends on so many things - when you need the money (investment horizon), risk appetite (emotional capacity to bear loss), risk capacity (economic capacity to bear loss) and your personal preferences. So there is no accepted position. But the general principles are that the further out in time you need the money, the higher your risk appetite & risk capacity the more equity you would hold relative to bonds. Those principles are timeless. Thanks, Ramin.
Rates still very high. Don't see it being 3% in the UK until 2028. Plus gas prices continue to be a problem. High rates are stifling growth & doesn't fix the root cause, plus drives debt & mortgage costs higher!
Great video as ever
Glad you enjoyed it @dardog7734
So much spam in the comments 😕
Hi @VoiceOfThe I'm on it - ran our spam filter to remove the "*** to the moon" stuff. Thanks, Ramin
This comment itself is spam at this point, what value you adding
@@JimboJimbo-i4i😂
...and in the supermarkets.
Spam spam spam ...😂
The most interesting thing was seeing the projection for Swiss interest rates. Is that because they don't start printing CHF at the first sign of a crisis ?
Hi @MrDuncl Switzerland is seen as a safe haven which is why I think its interest rates are relatively low compared to other European countries (excluding Germany). Thanks, Ramin
HNY Ramin. Very much enjoying your channel.
Happy new year @neillrobbins7508
@@Pensioncraftso what are your predictions about cryptocurrencies
I'm a normal person, so this is great news.
Hi how is the strong $ affect the global EFT if the $ corrects?
Hi @eddiekeeling-g4z if you're a sterling investor then a stronger dollar (versus sterling) increases the value of your global equity ETF and a weaker dollar reduces its value. Thanks, Ramin.
Do you pay much heed to warnings of a market crash/recession in 2025? The (US) charts on joblessness, homebuilding and just the fact that a recession has always followed a stock market this expensive/inflated. All the signs seems to point to the market being ripe for a major pullback.
Hi @dylanevans5644 recession isn't on the radar right now in developed markets. It will happen eventually of course, but at the moment growth and the outlook for growth look pretty good. The equity market can pull back without a recession occurring or it could just grow more slowly to give earnings a chance to catch up which wouldn't be a terrible outcome. Thanks, Ramin
But higher tariffs in the USA means higher inflation in the USA, but lower inflation in the rest of the world. Right?
Hi @M43782 that assumes no counter-tariffs, which might be larger and more widespread for this round. Thanks, Ramin.
Ideally, Trump won't have to implement tariffs at all. He wants to negotiate a better deal for the US rather than us paying massive tariffs and our jobs leaving the most successful economy in history.
We might already be seeing that with Chinese EVs. In the last year Polestar, BYD, Jaecoo, and Omoda have all become available locally (U.K. South Coast)
Where will we buy all our stuff , Mexico ?
Hi @ronsilva7394 I think Trump's plan is that Americans will buy more domestically produced stuff which will probably cost more as a result of higher labour costs. Thanks, Ramin.
Isn't China Apples second biggest market outside of the US
Hi @fredatlas4396 I believe Europe is the second-largest market. This is revenue in Q4 2024
Americas 42%
Europe 25%
Greater China 15%
Japan 6%
Rest of Asia Pacific 7%
Data here www.statista.com/statistics/382175/quarterly-revenue-of-apple-by-geograhical-region/
Thanks, Ramin.
Gr8 channel but would you ever trust Goldman Sachs data. The US housing market is strong
Hi @romeo20maypole68 I do trust Goldman. Thanks, Ramin
@@Pensioncraft
So did Greece.
That would make a change in the UK, average wages haven't been keeping up with inflation since about 2009. We need some bigger wage rises just to get back to where we were in 2007. The only way to get real growth in the UK economy is to grow the wages of ordinary working class people, they will spend money into the economy provided they have enough spare capital left over each month
European countries are growing by typical low Christian rate of growth. Similar to India a few decades ago, when India was growing at a low Hindu rate of growth.
Interesting to see uk rate will be around 3%, while the growth is currently around 0. And it is considered a good. While some developing countries grow at much higher pace,considered as bad… 😂
Well that no investing in India green triangle's banned in our house due to high flying straight to my eye 😅
USA, India, Indonesia, Vietnam
Economy in UK very poor since 2000. High immigration since 2000, are they connected?
I'm waiting with baited breath for what the heck Trump is going to do about tariffs. Having hundreds of thousands of SIPP money invested in S&P 500 and global trackers I am having trouble sleeping well at night.
I've sold a little equity for fixed income for the same reason.
Trump's offer to Iran: As of April 1, 2025 Iran is going to collect 30% tariff for every gallon of oil that goes through strait of Hormuz.
China's growth "relatively weak" at expected 4.7% GDP growth.... emerging markets "lacklustre" at 4.2%.... ummm...ok...
I guess everything is relative.
Interesting predictions, although my own expectations for 2025 is more negative... possible trade wars, SP500 bubble burst etc.
I just hope the inflation doesn't get back up, been lately loading heavily on global bond funds... well, if it does, I guess that just means better long term profits from bond funds. Well, we'll see soon...
Don't think China numbers are reliable.
130 trillion Ren & Stimpy.
Nice video but I missed one thing: What will happen to inflation in USA if Trump sends illegal workers back to their country of origin.
I think I heard Trump won't be doing that. Which would make it just another lie. And now that he's supposedly been elected, he can do whatever he wants. Shame on anyone who listens to a single word of what politicians say, I guess.
Considering many illegals work in construction and agriculture and they'd have to be replaced with locals whom contractors would need to pay more, I'd say the cost of food and housing would go up.
How true.
So growth is good? Tell that to the rest of the ecosystem.
Doom!
Bots in full swing selling sh-t coins😂
Hi @martinaston1715 I just deleted 57 of them! Thanks, Ramin
Wages ARE NOT outpacing inflation
Hi @Silver_Man_69 yes they are - see pages 11 and 12 www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024 e.g. for the US "The resilience of consumption is largely the result of robust increases in real wages (especially among lower-income households) and wealth effects" and for the euro area "Rising real wages are expected to boost consumption, and a gradual loosening of monetary policy is expected to support investment." Thanks, Ramin.
Africa wants a single currency.
With Rachel from complaints at the helm,
🚢 HMS. UK will definitely hit a reef and sink.
Buy global shares and chill
2 out of 3 stocks do not do what you expect…a fact…😂😂😂
You seem surprised that the IMF think UK growth will be weak 😂
There’ll be no growth under Labour and I’m amazed you appear to think otherwise.
Hi @freebo27 IMO the problem with Labour's plan for growth is that it's not bold enough. So at best I'd expect a weak boost to growth. Policies that would make a material difference, such as joining the EU customs union to boost exports, have been ruled out. Thanks, Ramin.
@@PensioncraftI think the problem is that their policies seem designed to stifle growth, e.g. the jobs tax.
But let’s wait and see, I for one am not investing in a single UK company, because I fear this government are clueless and will damage the economy.
@@Pensioncraft Thanks for your videos btw, well researched and interesting, even if I don't always agree with the conclusions :)
Ignore the pump n dump commentors
Trump appears to think that it's exporters who pay import tariffs. He may be in for a surprise.
I don't think you understand Trump at all. He wants to get jobs back to the US by negotiating a better deal.
Devaluation of the US dollar twice in '24 by the FED ans Biden admin. has been quite pain full.