I think there is a desire among the younger groups to own the iconic vintage cards, but most of them are not in a position to purchase them and still be able to participate in the remainder of the game or the other aspects of their lives the way they want. We were all in our teens and twenties at some point and for most of us choices had to be made at that phase in our lives. For vintage to have a chance of surviving beyond our lifetimes it is important that affordable options be available to younger people so they can form an attachment to the game and that at least a portion of them transition into higher prices as their means increase (there's not enough vintage to go around for all of them to get into it). I personally collect vintage for my own enjoyment and maintain a position size that doesn't impact my lifestyle in the least regardless of what the market does. As the younger generations age they will also look for ways to still enjoy the hobby without being able to go to game night every week or have to keep up with constant rules changes or power creep.
The income barrier is definitely an issue. We probably won't know how this story ends until some of the guys in their teens and twenties become financially established.
There is probably even cost issues within the older groups as a lot of people who would be directly nostalgic for vintage are now in their middle ages and have a lot of other significant, and less optional, expenses right now. Some of these people will come back in future years as income frees up. There are a lot of scenarios to consider when it comes to something that has been around this long and was really the first of its type to exist.
Good points. Cost to enter the collectible market is significant, and the cards are no longer evenly distributed among different people who pulled them from packs, rather than people who spent a lot of money to get them in collections.
I think people are underestimating a child's desire to love what their parents loved. And most younger folks simply can't afford the older cards. And the younger crowd like the new cards. Flashier fancier you know shiny objects. Maybe I'm too optimistic but I think it will play out fine. There will be a few days it rains but most days are sunny. Love your channel by the way. My new favorite channel. Ps. I'm one of the younger folks who can't really afford the old cards🥺🤦🏼♂️
I am a "young" Magic player ( came in, in 2015) and I have always had this high respect for the old cards. Those have always been the grails to chase and while the new cards are flashy and cool, nothing can ever compete with the old stuff imo. I hold both new and old Magic, but I enjoy my old stuff so much more than any modern Magic card due to the age and what it means.
thanks, mike, now i am a bit down 😂😜👊🏻! no, excellent video with lots of food to think about. what i personally believe is that the people involved in the vintage market currently are getting less. most younger players still know what a lotus is, though! in the end, i believe as long as the game is popular, the old cards will hold value. you mentioned sports cards, which is a good example. as long as the sport is still around, the old cards will hold value, even if younger collectors have no nostalgic feelings with a particular player. the fact that the whole mtg setup has changed and people do not collect anymore is an interesting thought. i wonder why variants and serialized cards hold value then? is it just bling for decks? that kinda goes against the gamepiece attitude 🤔. look at comics. i doubt anyone nowadays wants to read an amazing fantasy spidey first appearance, it just doesn’t fit with modern comics anymore, but still, those old books hold value, despite the print market struggling. stamps and coins have become very niche, imho, but are still around. old brands like transformers or masters ofvthe universe are still around, so the old stuff holds value. i honestly don’t see my son buying an old transformers figure for a lot of money, ever, though, tbh. mindset is different. it already starts with them wanting digital games and being annoyed by changing the disc and having to store game boxes. i think collecting mtg depends on if you are oke with everything going to zero. if i buy an UNL copy artifact for 250 bucks and it is worthless in 10 years, then yeah, bad luck. i probably would have spent the money on something else anyway. if i buy a beta lotus for 30k and i could pay off part of my mortgage, which i otherwise won’t do as that is all my capital, i would not do that. entertainment is worth something. why do people pay good money for old mustangs (also young people), why do paintings that are hundreds of years old command high prices, why does disney stuff from the 50’s still hold strong…? things can stick around, but surely do not have to. if vintage mtg is still around in 20 years, than the stuff that is 50 years old will be worth more than the cards that are 10 years old, i strongly believe that. if everything has gone to 0 by then, i’ll probably still have most kf my cards. stay frosty and enjoy those beauties you are unpacking for what they are NOW. who cares what the future holds anyways. we’ll find out soon enough 😜👊🏻❤️
Insightful comments, thanks! As always I appreciate and value your perspectives. You raise a couple good points too -- while I've been voicing my doubts recently, I'll definitely reiterate that I am not selling anything, and I am still buying stuff (just not as much). I don't think everything goes to zero personally, and I don't think some of the very key collectible cards will drop much either. I just have a bit more worry about some of the second and third order stuff… A random legends rare card, for example. I think that class of card has a higher risk profile today than it used to. The serialized card point is an interesting one, definitely something I have to think more about. Thanks for watching me watch Rudy 😆
As always, nice, insightful and well considered. Thanks! Fully agree. If making money is the priority then old cardboard is probably not the best thing to buy. On the other hand, if old cardboard makes you happy and you can afford it then go for it. I buy it because I simply can't help myself.
As regards nostalgia, I'm 21 years old, I never experienced the first years of magic, and indeed, a few years ago I approached the world of collecting, in particular magic, despite this, having never experienced those moments first hand, I feel nostalgic for them, here in Italy there is a very famous streamer, Dario Moccia, who often divulges his passion for card collecting, talks about the stories behind the artists, behind certain sets, behind the artwork, and in this way many persons like me began to become passionate and understand the beauty behind the TCGs and especially behind the first sets of the TCGs, in my opinion, if there was in general more of a narrative about the beauty of the cards, on the history of cards, and not just on money, as I often see TCG content creators do (the investment, the value of the card, the graded card that increases in value) if there were more "educational" contents on the beauty of vintage sets, perhaps more people would be passionate about it
The thing Ruby continues to do time and time and time again when discussing Magic is him purposely not discussing liquidity(new Magic and old). What good is it to have 80 boxes of Boulders Gate sitting in your closet that “will go up a couple percent every year” if there is no demand for the product now or long term and it won’t sell? Rudy continues to promote AND sell every new magic product like it’s investable when sadly it isn’t. It’s what makes it hard for someone like me to take him seriously when he’s discussing investments. If a product is so investable then why does he continue to sell it to his customers at the volumes he does? The person telling you to invest in something shouldn’t also be the person selling you the product. The problem is, Wizards continues to pump out too many sets too fast. It doesn’t give these new players a chance to really enjoy the sets and make memories with the cards within the sets. How can players today have any nostalgia for these cards 10 years from now when they don’t have any memories with these cards? Especially when there would be so many other sets or options to buy years from now? It’s different from when I started playing during the onslaught block. We had 3 sets a year and 1 core set. That’s it. 1 foil rare per box. Not 5 foils per pack. What Wizards is doing is tailoring too much to the gimmicky side of things. Trying to sell more product at faster rates by reprinting everything and having a million versions of every card. If everything is special then nothing is special. Sadly, this hurts the older cards lifeblood long term too because wizards is causing the older generation to step away from the hobby. The younger generation won’t have appreciation for the old cards the way we do as older players. I also feel Wizards probably will reprint the RL at some point in the future. When most of the old timers are gone, who will be left defending the old cards from being reprinted. The newer generation won’t care either way because 1) they never had the cards to begin with or 2) they weren’t old enough to appreciate the importance of the RL. In fact, it might be beneficial for Wizards to print the RL to bring more attention to the older cards. It would give the newer generation a chance to finally allow newer hands to get a hold of some of these prized cards. It may help draw more interest to these cards. Plus Wizards will be able to profit off of these cards. Just food for thought.
That's a really insightful comment, and I agree with most of it. I like Rudy, but you raise an important point that everybody ought to be clear about: The fact he's selling something to his viewers really complicates the usefulness of his advice. It's slightly less muddy when he talks about vintage, because he isn't selling that, however, he is buying that from his viewers, so we still need to keep that in mind. Totally agree about nostalgia issues, and had not considered the fact that in another 15 years, a complete abandonment of the reserved list might meet no resistance at all 🤔🤯 You've given me a lot to ponder.
@@AlphaHoarder And don't get me wrong, I really enjoy Rudy's content, but it seems he is always hyping up every new set like it's this amazing investible product. He will say something down the line of, "In 5 years, do you really not think Strixhaven won't be up 10-20%?" Yes, I get that, but in 5 years are people going to be willing to spend $150+ for that product when they could literally buy any other Magic product. Just because something is old doesn't make it more valuable or collectable. There has to be a demand for the product. It needs liquidity, and sadly people would rather put their money into single cards or something else entirely....Look at Dragon's Maze as an example.... What bugs the most is the unloading of massive volumes of new produce on his Patreon supporters as an investment just for the product to drop in price in 30 days. Sadly, many people end up selling the product back to Rudy at a loss. Its just an odd business model. But you are right, he won't sell RL (which is obviously more investable than new product) but happy to dump new product (not investible) on you just for it to drop in priced in 30 days. He always seems to come ahead in these situations, while leaving others at a loss. On top of the Patreon subscription price many already pay.....The last point that I will make is that he continues to bash Wizards on their business model and claims they are damaging LGS's, when he literally under cuts LGS's all the time buy selling volumes of the same product at a cheaper price. If Wizards is such a horrible company, then why do you continue to sell the product over and over again, claiming it to be this amazing investment? The only difference I see is he doesn't provide a place for people to actually play the game, where LGS do. It's just odd.......Sorry to rant.. Love your content by the way. You are very knowledgeable, and I have learned a lot form you. Keep up the good work. Great collection btw..........P.S. For me personally, if I were to invest in any old Magic, I would be investing in old foils. Extremely low print runs. Old products only had 1 foil rare per box, 6 foils in total per box.....Plus EDH players love their one-of foils....Just my hot take. :)
@melloboyz805 Very nice information here. I do love alpha cards, but currently i'm building positions in the japanese foil old cards. ULG - to 7th (premodern format)
@@melloboyz805 About foils generally speaking I'd like to share my experience that foils are at the moment heavily rejected because of issues with new foils (them being mostly unplayable and equally common basically to non foils so I see comments often people asking why is this foil so expensive). This does affect to older foils even they would not warp like modern foils. At least somewhat less amount of people interesting in foils generally what could be.
I think the way the game is managed is changing in a way that is hostile to existing collectors, and guides newer collectors away from vintage collecting. Back in the old days WOTC was pretty open about not considering the secondary market in their product releases, but they have increasingly moved away from that position, probably in an attempt to get a slice of the secondary market pie. This has probably been a very slow creep from foils in Urza's Legacy, to premium decks, and masters sets but has really ramped up in recent years with secret lairs, collector/ alternate editions, serialized cards and other variations with engineered scarcity specifically directed at "collectors." On top of that the game has moved in a different direction regarding power creep, and concept design. Power creep speaks for itself, but over the last decade the concept design has shifted to embrace a much more pop culture focused product, culminating in Universes Beyond sets, which I personally feel dilutes the identity of the game and furthers the schism between old and new magic. The contemporary game as a product is so different now, I wonder if newer players are even nostalgic about vintage magic at all, most newer players I see basically treat it as some esoteric bygone era that doesn't resonate with them at all, nobody plays vintage or legacy, commander is the only format that people play these cards in and most just see cards like duals other reserve list things as expensive pieces of cardboard that they would rather proxy if they wanted to play with them. In terms of the player to collector pipeline, it feels like their policy has allowed them to hijack the pipeline and direct those people towards their own premium product, because that pop culture stuff resonates with them, and those cards are playable in commander, and WOTC printing them ensures there is a cheaper and easier way to access them (like lootboxes) compared to vintage singles, which is where their nostalgia for the game will develop for these newer players instead of old cards that are basically irrelevant to the modern game. There are only a handful of reserve list singles that see play in commander now, let alone cards from abu/ 4 horsemen sets. WOTC seems incentivized to do this, it seems to be working based on how popular the game is now and how they managed to sell cardboard for even more money via premium sets, but it is increasingly feeling like a game I do not recognize anymore (to me it feels like they are hollowing the game out), and it is probably the same way for new players looking in the other direction which might reflect their interest in those sets later on.
Great points and insightful explanation. The fundamental shift is to seeing the game as only a game, hence as you observed, no interest in paying for a card that can be proxied. They've killed collectibility.
@@AlphaHoarderI would be inclined to believe that they want to change the idea of collectibility in mtg instead of kill it outright, though vintage collecting may be a casualty in the change. I would say they are looking to attract a dynamic akin to Funko Pop collectors, or collectors that buy sneaker drops, or seasonal fashion releases and things like that since they are able to monetize that over the secondary market, trying to solve the problem of getting players to buy new cards when rotating formats are in decline and commander has become the most popular format by far. Great content as always, though I do not collect mtg other than the cards I have played with over the years (though perhaps I would like to get a nice vesuvan doppelganger in the future), it is always a treat to see what you open and hear your thoughts on these things.
I like the Alphas. They’re unique and special compared with other Magic cards. But I’ve got my Alpha position of pause and am continuing to diversify into precious metals, equities, and real estate. 👍 Hope others feel that way about this small part of their portfolio. Next bull run would have to be associated with other speculative investments mooning, savings account rates decreasing, and something like a lockdown where indoor gaming was more important.
I sold all my power and vintage in 2010. I actually played and traveled to play, Type 1 and Type 1.5/Legacy. Im not saying it will crash but i suspect the prices will stagnate for years because the prices are insane now.Yes they are rare but their price far outpaces the reality that literally nobody plays vintage anymore.
Thanks for the video. 41 years old, love collecting vintage, not really enough to really call it serious investment, but I would love my cards still to stay relevant. I wonder if a new direction in new magic could reinvigorate old magic somehow? A reboot (simplify, drop the power level, remove the litany of rules and wall of text on cards) that suddenly brings focus back to vintage cards. Not sure how it could be done, but I would ultimately love to see it.
I definitely think that could be done, it's really in the hands of Hasbro at the moment. While I don't see them heading in the right direction at the moment, these things do change and there's still time.
Great info in this video. I pretty much agree with you and Rudy. I have to say that I've personally seen some money going into vintage again..... there's definitely a little speculation going on right now.
You expressed very well (as usual) many of what i been observing wirh the market and in particular the vintage market. I think many other old timers are not ready to see the signs as my comments in different channels have faced at least skepticism sometimes a bit more... thank you for sharing your thoughts and giving perspective to Rudy's comments which often are difficult to parse. The market has had a very significant further shift towards players. While a reversal is always posible i do not see it likely at this moment and it is only a matter of time until there are more collections hitting the market than interested buyers.
We're all so passionate about this stuff, it can be hard to separate feeling from wants from real probabilities, and easy to get defensive. Of course many possibilities are still open, but the current direction is not promising.
As always I appreciate your thoughts. I've put a lot of thought into why Rudy ventured into the card grading world when he doesn't personally care for graded cards, PSA being the only previous company he collected. I wonder if it's because he can have a finger directly on the pulse of the collectable scene. Grading is strictly collectable.
Interesting speculation. It would make a lot of sense. Especially the way he spoke about grading companies during the pandemic era, it came as a surprise to me as well.
As someone who is deep into crypto, i need to add something. Last time, crypto mania started affecting collectibles not when btc broke the previous high(20k usd at the time), but 6-12 months after the high was broken, and btc was double at the time(around 40k usd). So, I woudn't expect crypto money to move into collectibles for the next 6 months more or less, or when btc hits at least 100k usd. At least that is when we really see if crypto bros move into collectibles again or not. Everything else in your video is on point
Good point. There's also a much larger group of people that have a basis much closer to the current prices, which was less the case in the past during the crypto bull run, if only because crypto penetration to the general population was lower. These people indeed want to wait a little longer before trying to shift profits to something else.
I also think while a different ballgame than sealed vintage or collecting, proxies are much more commonplace than they used to be. Ever since Magic 30 where proxies were made to be ok, I have seen a lot more proxies in some decks
Hard to say. That would effectively turn them into a mobile game powered by micro transactions. While the margins on that can be close to 100%, it's still going be a lot harder to generate the same amount of money per customer as paper magic does. Also, sealed and draft formats are relatively immune to the proxy issue. On the flipside, I don't yet have teenagers, but I hear that all their social interactions are pretty much mediated through a device at that point. Who knows how that will shake out, but it may well be that sitting down in person to play paper magic just doesn't have any appeal to the player base, at some point. So yes, I could imagine scenarios were wizards goes fully digital, but I don't think there's anything to indicate that's the inevitable outcome (yet).
As a 43 y/old commander player who bought packs of The Dark, Legends, and Revised in 1995 I think all the work WOTC is putting in to align profitably with playability and enjoyment of the game will ultimately bring in more players who will ultimately have interest in collecting old cards. It takes decades sometimes for generations to build up enough wealth to do they buying and to get familiar enough with vintage cards to feel confident in buying/collecting. Buying any ABU is an excellent long-term hold imo, just short-term maybe not. Magic's old and new player base is powerful, commander playability is powerful, and any ABU cards that are playable in commander should be more of a focus for collectors imo, because those will be the familiar diamonds that those commander players will seek as they start getting into the investment time in their lives.
I don't follow Rudy, just because he puts out too much to keep up with. I really enjoyed this format of you responding or commenting on a topic by someone else.
The crypto market now dictates when the cardboard pumps. I know ALOT of whales who put millions into MTG last cycle. It’s happening again! Cheers Mike. Appreciate your videos
What is the point to put money into Magic as a whale? Is it to push it when it's low and generate hysteria amongst the timmy's and then sell into the market?
I was thinking about your generational hand off talks while I was watching that Rudy video. I agree it's really odd to see Rudy acknowledge it given that he's usually so overly bullish. I think a lot of the card games are having similar problems. In Pokémon and Yu-Gi-Oh all the focus is on the new stuff while the vintage side is flat or down. Definitely challenges ahead for all three although in theory the modern stuff doing well should be a good sign. I just wish Magic would put unique artwork on the serialised cards! The exact same card with a little number in the corner is such a sham! Not a huge fan of Universes beyond either. It feels like any identity Magic had is being washed away. Is Magic now just destined to be a western version of Weiss Schwarz? 🤔 Interesting what you said about people seeing Rudy and becoming overconfident. I think people forget that Rudy is only in his late 30's, he's still learning the same as the rest of us. I doubt his opinions will be the same in 30 years when he's got decades more experience to draw on. He brings some excellent knowledge to the table but his word should never be taken as gospel.
I agree modern mtg has no clear innovation/soul in it. I kinda feel there might have been an order to publish serialized cards and more traditional department took the order biting tongues: 'fine, we'll just slam some kind serialization to the card, are you happy now!?' To me it looks like they just wanted to throw most basic serialized version to a wall and look if it sticks. Then just multiply this again and again. Now they have started to think a bit that maybe those cards should be more special and even those alternate arts will be coming surely at some point. Not sure if this is a catastrophic standpoint how to proceed new innovation like this but it definetely has some cannibalizing elements in it. Making cards 0/100 and more desirable will cannibalize company's older lazy releases heavily and people realizes there will be no value left in their collection probably nor they have playable cards in hands.
There is hope. I personally am disconecting from social media. It is liberating. I did take up Starcraft 2 in the process lol but there could be a transition away from digital media to paper media. Paper entertainment, people could discover this once forgotten game and then want to own it present and past. I don't know what it would take for that to happen but I picture like a renaissance of paper tabletop gaming which may drive demand. Rudy might be 69 years old by then and have dusty silver locks but all those boxes of modern era cards may spike. Do you think Rudy is able to pay for his personal sets with all the sales? Or will it always be heavy bags if they don't all sell?
I agree there's a possibility of a resurgence. It feels like we're *maybe* approaching a pendulum swing on topics like screen-time for kids, social media for teens, and unsupervised play on childhood development. Such a renaissance could be great-- if Hasbro handles it right. The door is not closed. I can only speculate on Rudy's exact business model, but if we take him at his word, he sells enough product to make profit (which must finance his life, his set buying, and his purchase of the next wizards release) and to keep some product with essentially no cost basis. He also has something like 4k patrons paying on average $15/m, plus YT Adsense on ~30 videos/m averaging ~20k views each. It seems to me he could make really good money even before selling anything, so it's definitely feasible that he's able to keep positions for himself and still profit. Whether he does or not, my guess is as good as yours.
I love old and new magic, The quick releases today prevent people from having a love for a set, I mean I still have a solid memory of the zendikar ww era. But as soon as I blink we are moving on another set. Also so many good replacements for dual lands have come out. Not as good pr better but they are acceptable in all formats.
People are very heavily into Proxies. Even the few newer players I know that have continued to play for the last 4 or 5 years aren’t gravitating back towards Vintage Product. They Buy New Product and Proxy Old Stuff.
Yeah great point-- the proxy shift is a major marker of people treating magic as a game *only* instead of a collectible card game. When it was collectible, there was value in having the actual piece and putting money into it. If people devalue it as a collectible category, that will definitely affect interest in vintage stuff.
I've always taken the long term view of this, but M30 made everything go from coming up roses to pushing up daisies, at least for a couple of years. It will take a long time to recover, if we recover. I have a lot of thoughts on this, but for now I'll avoid the wall of text and pushing the maximum length of a youtube comment and simply say that things are in an obvious state of flux right now and that Hasbro/WotC holds the key to what happens. Hope they learned something from the last couple of years.
At the age of 39 I actually worry that my vintage cards value doesnt go up at least a few % p.a. over the next 25 years. I can imagine younger people wont care about old cards in the long run. I love my mtg cards, especially those from 1993-94 and I am still buying cards for my collection. But as an investment I find it too risky, so most of my money for that purpose goes into stocks/ETFs.
It’s in everyone’s best interest to forget 2021 ever happened. We’re likely not going to experience anything in collectibles like that again for a long time if ever. As far as I can tell, prices are a bit higher than 2019, so I’m just writing off 2020 and 2021 as anomalies and moving on. I love collecting old Magic cards, I love playing Old School and I don’t ever want Magic to die but anyone who spends as much as I do on old Magic cards should be concerned about their future and be developing an exit strategy (leaving them to your grandkids is probably a mistake). I’m not saying all at once or even soon, but at least think about it and find easy ways to reduce your risk while still collecting what you love.
I feel that the current vintage market is the result of mid-level collectors exiting the market. I'm seeing many sales on ebay with most of the buyers just trying to get a deal rather than any FOMO buying. I think the FOMO buying is aimed toward the serialized hype that we are just getting started with in these new collector boxes. But the money will change, just as it always does. Demand will return (I'm biased. I just like the stock) But I genuinely feel that it will.
It would be crazy to expect the kind of influx we experienced from the perfect storm -- peak generational nostalgia, crypto, and government stimulus. A lot of us are still coming down from that frenzy, but that should be treated as an outlier. I think it will take a media event - such as a hit TV show or film - to drive it back up. Meantime, I wonder how much nostalgia/yearning was actually created DURING the 2016 - 2022 rage? A whole new crop could be hungering for these cards simply because they watched it bloom in such a thrilling way. Who. Knows.
Very true. The combination of high cost to enter plus an unprecedented amount of social media exposure does create a number of reasonable outcomes where the next generation is after these cards they just can't participate yet, so we don't see it yet. Definitely possible.
Another factor is the growth of the digital game and the death of the LGS as well as the hard shift away from growing the in person events, which have become more exclusive and much older.
I don’t think that young generations will not come to the old cards. I mean, i’m 35 and i’m now starting to chase Alpha just because I’m finally Financially stabilized. I might see that many people from 80’ will buy their old and beloved cards once they become healthy and finish to pay their home/interests. My two cents 😊 Best regards!
You could very well be right. The cost of entry combined with the current economic situation for many younger people could be concealing their interest
The alpha Wall of wood market has fallen through the floor. There was only 23 available on cardmarket only a year ago, but theres now over 80 and iv been able to pick up some for £12 shipped, though generally more. ICE on the other hand is still hot :))
Yeah, indeed makes a lot of sense. Spoke with a friend about this earlier this year. It's a heavy linked nostalgia collectible. Still, many very old coins still hold value, or it's is not the same case?
Numismatics has matured past pop-culture collectible and into a mature collectible. That's a much more stable and long-term market. Same for art. Magic is different because we have yet to see if it will transition or not. Most pop-culture collectibles are single-generation.
@@AlphaHoarder Thanks so much for this information. Truly makes a lot of sense and i had no idea at all that a transition existed. I suppose the same happens with stamps. We will find out though. Are the baseball player cards in the same field as MTG?
I'm not in the sports world so I can only comment as an outsider, but cards like T206 Honus Wagner show that parts of that hobby have definitely transitioned into maturity and become multi-generational.
The generational handoff is possible but it will take a different form. They didn’t grow up with them as they came out and did not experience it the same. It is only a collectible to them… conceptually. Older players often buy to play still and transact them regularly, drop them and pick them up not for collectibility purposes. The other concept I don’t hear discussed often is the concept of the bell curve. These will all be worth nothing at some point. That’s a fact. Perhaps that will be 3 generations or 150 years from now, long after we’re all long gone. But the cards have no intrinsic value if the game goes away. It is t silver, gold, rare coins… it is an obscure item. I’m sure that some people will find an interest in it and they will be around but there are plenty of cards to support that niche level of interest… so it will in fact go towards that outcome in the 2nd or 3rd generational handoff if you keep in mind that the game itself is generally played it’s hand in the sense that they don’t really have allot of new ideas and are just repackaging the same concepts with new themes. What you said about M30 was right on
Good question, and always smart to step back and consider incentives since they so often makes sense of things. In this case, I don't know. I'm a Rudy fan so I'm not knocking him, but the fact he is selling things to his viewers inexorably muddies the waters. I took his comments at face value, but I can't say for sure that was the right lens. I'd be curious what you think.
I don't have any particular thoughts on that edition… I expect it will continue to track at the same relative proportions that it has with Alpha and Beta, going forward. There might be a little bit less player interest since straight proxies have become much more acceptable after magic 30… But otherwise I don't see anything major changing in that market
People with money atm are buying original art and artist proofs, market is exploding as everyone is realizing that they are significantly cooler and better than serialized cards and are very fun to collect and its something new to think about if you dont have a lot of pieces. Once the vast majority of the best art / proofs left are bought up, I feel like people will return to the 4 horsemen and old mtg in some amount.
People are going to get rocked/shocked when the $600 selling event finally kicks in with the IRS. Not saying one way or the other thoughts but i think a lot of people are going to be shocked when those forms get sent out, even though people should be reporting that revenue regardless if you got the form or not. I will say this, i play commander still with about 8 buddies that i grew up and a new friend group, aside from me (all in the 35-45 age range), none have any desire to just collect ABU, they just play commander and buy modern cards. All good but if the biggest format is currently Commander according to WOTC, i don't expect ABU to to sky rocket like the days of the covid checks, i think we've seen a dip from the spending of covid and now a slight correction back from the dip. On top of the reality that most younger players aren't going to have a ton of capital to splurge on old cards, especially in this current economy.
I don’t know, I collect baseball cards too, and have for almost 40 years now. What did I hear then- and now? Kids today don’t appreciate the old players, they are only after the modern cards. And let me tell you, vintage cards are extremely popular. To the point where we go back far enough that NO ONE was opening these packs. They are all long since dead. So I guess we have to see if the pessimism I saw in that hobby is what Magic is seeing now. Time will tell.
if iam not mistaken its the millenials that grew up with magic. our incomes are increasing at this stage but we are getting married, trying to buy homes or raise kids at the moment. in 8 years or so, millenials will be reaching their peak earning years and their baby boomer parents will start dying off. they will have more time and money to put into hobbies. as long as hasbro can keep millenails interested in paper magic up to that time, they might start spending that extra income on magic.
It means a lot that you consider what I have to say worthwhile. Tbh, I've so far dodged every such invitation I've received, all for personal reasons. But, why don't you shoot me an email so I have your contact.
Also keep in mind: We came from a timeline with basically 0% interest rates for a while. Now it's a 6%. That is a very strong argument in terms of investment choices. Sure MTG isn't a real investment, but basically performed as one over the last 25-30 years. However if risk is high and reward is probably low, then why not take the save approach with the 6% ? Reasonable i'd say.
I definitely agree that's what halted the speculation and hype, and caused things to cool. But in order to grow long term, when all this dust settles, the hobby needs to be larger than it is today. That's where I think the issue is deeper than the current economics
@@AlphaHoarder i believe you are right. However what i really cant believe is, that there wont be new participants joining the old stuff collectors. checking prices of todays magic especially, it is questionable to pay like $400 on freshly printed stuff, and contiuously rising, and not growing interest in actual collectibles instead, which also seem to be kinda cheap in comparison to new boxes. Coz whatever rare or flashy version hasbro prints, more likely than not, there will be a flashier one. An alpha sol Ring stays an alpha sol Ring. It is always beautiful. What i am shocked, literally shocked, is that people pay 2000 and more on a borsalina or zorro card from OP.
Also, if you want to be smart, Alpha collectors should take notice of market cycles in modern product, the speed of and volume of the sets is an advantage if you understand what's happening. Attention and distraction en masse play a big role, new mechanics resurrect old sets, $20 commander decks sold at Walmart in 2020 sell for $60-$90 now. The "popularity" of a set dictates short or long print runs, and the sell through rates and bottoming out of prices of collector boxes dipping down to $115 sitting on the shelf are waiting for you. Those boxes pop back up to $190 a year later, meanwhile a vintage collector was picking up cards hoping for 20% gains in 5 years?!?! Are you not entertained? Do these opportunities seem inaccessible to you?
Both Rudy and Mike make good points, but both individuals are millionaires and maybe don't see this angle. During the last 18 months, there has been a bloodbath of tech layoffs and many other good paying jobs. Lost income is a sure way to force people to sell their magic cards, putting downward pressure on prices, since many people making over 100k a year live pay check to pay check. Two years ago, vintage magic prices were through the roof, and a lack of new collectors entering the market does not explain the decline of prices so quickly.
As a foreigner I have read news that numbers of US's economy should be pretty strong and economy growing rapidly but this time it's somehow different based on comments on these boards. What am I missing? Can the economy grow no one noticing it? Do we have such short memory and we compare the situation to covid where free money was poured and people start to think it's a new normal? I'd say young people got extremely bad example as a generation experience from that time (everything just don't only go up with time)
Please look at Gerogre Trich's chart "periods to make money" from 1875 , according to this chart rhere wont be a peiod of "good times until 2026. When people have more buying power , until then people wont buy as many collectibles because they dont have disposi le income.
Possibly, though I have my doubts. SHA-256 isn't susceptible to quantum operations, so the historical integrity of the blockchain is safe. The issue would be EDSCA-based private keys. However, keep in mind the Bitcoin protocol can be updated at any time, and quantum computers are 2 orders of magnitude too small to even attempt this, at present. It's also an open question if they can ever get to that scale (decoherence may be unsolvable). My guess is if they start getting remotely close, Bitcoin protocol will move to a different key generation method.
So, I do think that the cards we collect will someday boom again in a generational handoff. Maybe not anytime soon. And maybe they won't pass the all time highs of the Covid mass stupidity era. But it all comes down to disposable income that the next generation doesn't really have yet. I'm more concerned about future generations' ability to accumulate wealth and how that will impact the hobby and all things. I started playing during Revised and had very little ABU, 4 horseman stuff as a kid. I could only afford to be a player. I quit around 5th Edition. Now, I collect most things vintage from Alpha through Scourge despite not having been a player or collector during most of those sets. You have said yourself that you started playing in 95, and now you're the Alpha Hoarder. A baseball card colldctor born in 1981 still wants a Ty Cobb or Mickey Mantle in their collection. People with money and success get bored and eventually lean into the things they love in an obsessive way. The same people crying about game pieces now will be collectors/investors someday when they grow up.......hopefully. We'll see. I'll love it until I die either way.
You definitely could be right, and the economic situation for younger people might, in fact, be concealing their demand. And I agree, collectors do tend to seek hobby trophies. Looking at my own case, I wonder how much has to do with the fact that the Alpha cards share the artwork with the cards I spent so much time with, or indeed, the fact I spent so much time with the same set of cards and built that nostalgia. Those two things are different for today's younger players... but it's hard to say how much that factors in. No doubt the "formula" has multiple components.
@AlphaHoarder That's a good point. I was thinking something similar as I was flipping through my Unlimited album last night. The fact that most of those cards share the same artwork with my original experience definitely has some impact on how they trigger me now.
It's an interesting thing to ponder. Another thing is that we played with the versions of the cards. How does that factor in? Does it make sense, for example, the players today might eventually be interested in Alpha Mana Vaults because it's a card they play with, albeit with different art? But they'll have no interest whatsoever in Shivan Dragon? I wish I knew the answers.
@@AlphaHoarderHard to say. I can't possibly answer those questions objectively. You're talking about something doubly sacred to me. Alpha plus one of the best pieces by my favorite artist. By comparison, any Mana Vault that comes out now is toilet paper. Will newer players view our ABU Vaults the same way or will there be some appreciation of history? Does that appreciation carry over to an unplayable card like Shivan? It's probably something in between. Our cards will likely always hold some value. Still, it's probably best to not look at it as an investment. You really do have to love it.
Haha yeah, I did. At least I can spot the irony in my own situation, which is one of the reasons I put "hoarder" in my name! In any case, I still have a backlog of about 200 packages, so I'll be opening things for a while yet, making those comments look ever more hypocritical 😂 But yes, in truth, there are only a small number of cards that I'm still after for accumulation purposes. Outside of those are a handful of collection pieces that have been on my bucket list all the while I was busy with Alpha. I hope to bang a few of those out in due course, no matter what happens in the market.
I think there is a desire among the younger groups to own the iconic vintage cards, but most of them are not in a position to purchase them and still be able to participate in the remainder of the game or the other aspects of their lives the way they want. We were all in our teens and twenties at some point and for most of us choices had to be made at that phase in our lives. For vintage to have a chance of surviving beyond our lifetimes it is important that affordable options be available to younger people so they can form an attachment to the game and that at least a portion of them transition into higher prices as their means increase (there's not enough vintage to go around for all of them to get into it). I personally collect vintage for my own enjoyment and maintain a position size that doesn't impact my lifestyle in the least regardless of what the market does. As the younger generations age they will also look for ways to still enjoy the hobby without being able to go to game night every week or have to keep up with constant rules changes or power creep.
The income barrier is definitely an issue. We probably won't know how this story ends until some of the guys in their teens and twenties become financially established.
There is probably even cost issues within the older groups as a lot of people who would be directly nostalgic for vintage are now in their middle ages and have a lot of other significant, and less optional, expenses right now. Some of these people will come back in future years as income frees up. There are a lot of scenarios to consider when it comes to something that has been around this long and was really the first of its type to exist.
Good points. Cost to enter the collectible market is significant, and the cards are no longer evenly distributed among different people who pulled them from packs, rather than people who spent a lot of money to get them in collections.
I think people are underestimating a child's desire to love what their parents loved. And most younger folks simply can't afford the older cards. And the younger crowd like the new cards. Flashier fancier you know shiny objects. Maybe I'm too optimistic but I think it will play out fine. There will be a few days it rains but most days are sunny.
Love your channel by the way. My new favorite channel. Ps. I'm one of the younger folks who can't really afford the old cards🥺🤦🏼♂️
Very good point. The financial barrier to entry may be hiding some of the demand for a time 🤔
I am a "young" Magic player ( came in, in 2015) and I have always had this high respect for the old cards. Those have always been the grails to chase and while the new cards are flashy and cool, nothing can ever compete with the old stuff imo. I hold both new and old Magic, but I enjoy my old stuff so much more than any modern Magic card due to the age and what it means.
That's awesome to hear!
thanks, mike, now i am a bit down 😂😜👊🏻! no, excellent video with lots of food to think about.
what i personally believe is that the people involved in the vintage market currently are getting less. most younger players still know what a lotus is, though! in the end, i believe as long as the game is popular, the old cards will hold value. you mentioned sports cards, which is a good example. as long as the sport is still around, the old cards will hold value, even if younger collectors have no nostalgic feelings with a particular player.
the fact that the whole mtg setup has changed and people do not collect anymore is an interesting thought. i wonder why variants and serialized cards hold value then? is it just bling for decks? that kinda goes against the gamepiece attitude 🤔.
look at comics. i doubt anyone nowadays wants to read an amazing fantasy spidey first appearance, it just doesn’t fit with modern comics anymore, but still, those old books hold value, despite the print market struggling. stamps and coins have become very niche, imho, but are still around. old brands like transformers or masters ofvthe universe are still around, so the old stuff holds value. i honestly don’t see my son buying an old transformers figure for a lot of money, ever, though, tbh. mindset is different. it already starts with them wanting digital games and being annoyed by changing the disc and having to store game boxes.
i think collecting mtg depends on if you are oke with everything going to zero. if i buy an UNL copy artifact for 250 bucks and it is worthless in 10 years, then yeah, bad luck. i probably would have spent the money on something else anyway. if i buy a beta lotus for 30k and i could pay off part of my mortgage, which i otherwise won’t do as that is all my capital, i would not do that. entertainment is worth something.
why do people pay good money for old mustangs (also young people), why do paintings that are hundreds of years old command high prices, why does disney stuff from the 50’s still hold strong…? things can stick around, but surely do not have to. if vintage mtg is still around in 20 years, than the stuff that is 50 years old will be worth more than the cards that are 10 years old, i strongly believe that. if everything has gone to 0 by then, i’ll probably still have most kf my cards.
stay frosty and enjoy those beauties you are unpacking for what they are NOW. who cares what the future holds anyways. we’ll find out soon enough 😜👊🏻❤️
Insightful comments, thanks! As always I appreciate and value your perspectives. You raise a couple good points too -- while I've been voicing my doubts recently, I'll definitely reiterate that I am not selling anything, and I am still buying stuff (just not as much). I don't think everything goes to zero personally, and I don't think some of the very key collectible cards will drop much either. I just have a bit more worry about some of the second and third order stuff… A random legends rare card, for example. I think that class of card has a higher risk profile today than it used to. The serialized card point is an interesting one, definitely something I have to think more about. Thanks for watching me watch Rudy 😆
the discussion is always good and important! 🙏🏻❤️
As always, nice, insightful and well considered. Thanks!
Fully agree. If making money is the priority then old cardboard is probably not the best thing to buy. On the other hand, if old cardboard makes you happy and you can afford it then go for it.
I buy it because I simply can't help myself.
Yup! Same
that's why the cardboard world is the best speculative and relatively niche market
As regards nostalgia, I'm 21 years old, I never experienced the first years of magic, and indeed, a few years ago I approached the world of collecting, in particular magic, despite this, having never experienced those moments first hand, I feel nostalgic for them, here in Italy there is a very famous streamer, Dario Moccia, who often divulges his passion for card collecting, talks about the stories behind the artists, behind certain sets, behind the artwork, and in this way many persons like me began to become passionate and understand the beauty behind the TCGs and especially behind the first sets of the TCGs, in my opinion, if there was in general more of a narrative about the beauty of the cards, on the history of cards, and not just on money, as I often see TCG content creators do (the investment, the value of the card, the graded card that increases in value) if there were more "educational" contents on the beauty of vintage sets, perhaps more people would be passionate about it
This is really interesting to hear, thanks for sharing!
Good point, beauty can come from rarity, price, nostalgia, but it can also come from something else and more real.
The thing Ruby continues to do time and time and time again when discussing Magic is him purposely not discussing liquidity(new Magic and old). What good is it to have 80 boxes of Boulders Gate sitting in your closet that “will go up a couple percent every year” if there is no demand for the product now or long term and it won’t sell?
Rudy continues to promote AND sell every new magic product like it’s investable when sadly it isn’t. It’s what makes it hard for someone like me to take him seriously when he’s discussing investments.
If a product is so investable then why does he continue to sell it to his customers at the volumes he does? The person telling you to invest in something shouldn’t also be the person selling you the product.
The problem is, Wizards continues to pump out too many sets too fast. It doesn’t give these new players a chance to really enjoy the sets and make memories with the cards within the sets. How can players today have any nostalgia for these cards 10 years from now when they don’t have any memories with these cards? Especially when there would be so many other sets or options to buy years from now? It’s different from when I started playing during the onslaught block. We had 3 sets a year and 1 core set. That’s it. 1 foil rare per box. Not 5 foils per pack.
What Wizards is doing is tailoring too much to the gimmicky side of things. Trying to sell more product at faster rates by reprinting everything and having a million versions of every card. If everything is special then nothing is special.
Sadly, this hurts the older cards lifeblood long term too because wizards is causing the older generation to step away from the hobby. The younger generation won’t have appreciation for the old cards the way we do as older players.
I also feel Wizards probably will reprint the RL at some point in the future. When most of the old timers are gone, who will be left defending the old cards from being reprinted. The newer generation won’t care either way because 1) they never had the cards to begin with or 2) they weren’t old enough to appreciate the importance of the RL.
In fact, it might be beneficial for Wizards to print the RL to bring more attention to the older cards. It would give the newer generation a chance to finally allow newer hands to get a hold of some of these prized cards. It may help draw more interest to these cards. Plus Wizards will be able to profit off of these cards.
Just food for thought.
That's a really insightful comment, and I agree with most of it. I like Rudy, but you raise an important point that everybody ought to be clear about: The fact he's selling something to his viewers really complicates the usefulness of his advice.
It's slightly less muddy when he talks about vintage, because he isn't selling that, however, he is buying that from his viewers, so we still need to keep that in mind.
Totally agree about nostalgia issues, and had not considered the fact that in another 15 years, a complete abandonment of the reserved list might meet no resistance at all 🤔🤯
You've given me a lot to ponder.
@@AlphaHoarder And don't get me wrong, I really enjoy Rudy's content, but it seems he is always hyping up every new set like it's this amazing investible product. He will say something down the line of, "In 5 years, do you really not think Strixhaven won't be up 10-20%?" Yes, I get that, but in 5 years are people going to be willing to spend $150+ for that product when they could literally buy any other Magic product. Just because something is old doesn't make it more valuable or collectable. There has to be a demand for the product. It needs liquidity, and sadly people would rather put their money into single cards or something else entirely....Look at Dragon's Maze as an example.... What bugs the most is the unloading of massive volumes of new produce on his Patreon supporters as an investment just for the product to drop in price in 30 days. Sadly, many people end up selling the product back to Rudy at a loss. Its just an odd business model. But you are right, he won't sell RL (which is obviously more investable than new product) but happy to dump new product (not investible) on you just for it to drop in priced in 30 days. He always seems to come ahead in these situations, while leaving others at a loss. On top of the Patreon subscription price many already pay.....The last point that I will make is that he continues to bash Wizards on their business model and claims they are damaging LGS's, when he literally under cuts LGS's all the time buy selling volumes of the same product at a cheaper price. If Wizards is such a horrible company, then why do you continue to sell the product over and over again, claiming it to be this amazing investment? The only difference I see is he doesn't provide a place for people to actually play the game, where LGS do. It's just odd.......Sorry to rant.. Love your content by the way. You are very knowledgeable, and I have learned a lot form you. Keep up the good work. Great collection btw..........P.S. For me personally, if I were to invest in any old Magic, I would be investing in old foils. Extremely low print runs. Old products only had 1 foil rare per box, 6 foils in total per box.....Plus EDH players love their one-of foils....Just my hot take. :)
Interesting points here as well. Agree about the foils.
@melloboyz805 Very nice information here. I do love alpha cards, but currently i'm building positions in the japanese foil old cards. ULG - to 7th (premodern format)
@@melloboyz805 About foils generally speaking I'd like to share my experience that foils are at the moment heavily rejected because of issues with new foils (them being mostly unplayable and equally common basically to non foils so I see comments often people asking why is this foil so expensive). This does affect to older foils even they would not warp like modern foils. At least somewhat less amount of people interesting in foils generally what could be.
I think the way the game is managed is changing in a way that is hostile to existing collectors, and guides newer collectors away from vintage collecting. Back in the old days WOTC was pretty open about not considering the secondary market in their product releases, but they have increasingly moved away from that position, probably in an attempt to get a slice of the secondary market pie. This has probably been a very slow creep from foils in Urza's Legacy, to premium decks, and masters sets but has really ramped up in recent years with secret lairs, collector/ alternate editions, serialized cards and other variations with engineered scarcity specifically directed at "collectors." On top of that the game has moved in a different direction regarding power creep, and concept design. Power creep speaks for itself, but over the last decade the concept design has shifted to embrace a much more pop culture focused product, culminating in Universes Beyond sets, which I personally feel dilutes the identity of the game and furthers the schism between old and new magic.
The contemporary game as a product is so different now, I wonder if newer players are even nostalgic about vintage magic at all, most newer players I see basically treat it as some esoteric bygone era that doesn't resonate with them at all, nobody plays vintage or legacy, commander is the only format that people play these cards in and most just see cards like duals other reserve list things as expensive pieces of cardboard that they would rather proxy if they wanted to play with them. In terms of the player to collector pipeline, it feels like their policy has allowed them to hijack the pipeline and direct those people towards their own premium product, because that pop culture stuff resonates with them, and those cards are playable in commander, and WOTC printing them ensures there is a cheaper and easier way to access them (like lootboxes) compared to vintage singles, which is where their nostalgia for the game will develop for these newer players instead of old cards that are basically irrelevant to the modern game. There are only a handful of reserve list singles that see play in commander now, let alone cards from abu/ 4 horsemen sets.
WOTC seems incentivized to do this, it seems to be working based on how popular the game is now and how they managed to sell cardboard for even more money via premium sets, but it is increasingly feeling like a game I do not recognize anymore (to me it feels like they are hollowing the game out), and it is probably the same way for new players looking in the other direction which might reflect their interest in those sets later on.
Great points and insightful explanation. The fundamental shift is to seeing the game as only a game, hence as you observed, no interest in paying for a card that can be proxied. They've killed collectibility.
@@AlphaHoarderI would be inclined to believe that they want to change the idea of collectibility in mtg instead of kill it outright, though vintage collecting may be a casualty in the change. I would say they are looking to attract a dynamic akin to Funko Pop collectors, or collectors that buy sneaker drops, or seasonal fashion releases and things like that since they are able to monetize that over the secondary market, trying to solve the problem of getting players to buy new cards when rotating formats are in decline and commander has become the most popular format by far.
Great content as always, though I do not collect mtg other than the cards I have played with over the years (though perhaps I would like to get a nice vesuvan doppelganger in the future), it is always a treat to see what you open and hear your thoughts on these things.
I like the Alphas. They’re unique and special compared with other Magic cards.
But I’ve got my Alpha position of pause and am continuing to diversify into precious metals, equities, and real estate. 👍 Hope others feel that way about this small part of their portfolio.
Next bull run would have to be associated with other speculative investments mooning, savings account rates decreasing, and something like a lockdown where indoor gaming was more important.
Wise comment here 👍
I sold all my power and vintage in 2010. I actually played and traveled to play, Type 1 and Type 1.5/Legacy.
Im not saying it will crash but i suspect the prices will stagnate for years because the prices are insane now.Yes they are rare but their price far outpaces the reality that literally nobody plays vintage anymore.
Sincerely thank you for taking the time breaking down your thoughts “old timer”
😁
Thanks for the video. 41 years old, love collecting vintage, not really enough to really call it serious investment, but I would love my cards still to stay relevant. I wonder if a new direction in new magic could reinvigorate old magic somehow? A reboot (simplify, drop the power level, remove the litany of rules and wall of text on cards) that suddenly brings focus back to vintage cards. Not sure how it could be done, but I would ultimately love to see it.
I definitely think that could be done, it's really in the hands of Hasbro at the moment. While I don't see them heading in the right direction at the moment, these things do change and there's still time.
Great info in this video. I pretty much agree with you and Rudy. I have to say that I've personally seen some money going into vintage again..... there's definitely a little speculation going on right now.
Yes agreed, does feel to be off the lows
You expressed very well (as usual) many of what i been observing wirh the market and in particular the vintage market. I think many other old timers are not ready to see the signs as my comments in different channels have faced at least skepticism sometimes a bit more... thank you for sharing your thoughts and giving perspective to Rudy's comments which often are difficult to parse. The market has had a very significant further shift towards players. While a reversal is always posible i do not see it likely at this moment and it is only a matter of time until there are more collections hitting the market than interested buyers.
We're all so passionate about this stuff, it can be hard to separate feeling from wants from real probabilities, and easy to get defensive. Of course many possibilities are still open, but the current direction is not promising.
As always I appreciate your thoughts. I've put a lot of thought into why Rudy ventured into the card grading world when he doesn't personally care for graded cards, PSA being the only previous company he collected. I wonder if it's because he can have a finger directly on the pulse of the collectable scene. Grading is strictly collectable.
Interesting speculation. It would make a lot of sense. Especially the way he spoke about grading companies during the pandemic era, it came as a surprise to me as well.
As someone who is deep into crypto, i need to add something. Last time, crypto mania started affecting collectibles not when btc broke the previous high(20k usd at the time), but 6-12 months after the high was broken, and btc was double at the time(around 40k usd). So, I woudn't expect crypto money to move into collectibles for the next 6 months more or less, or when btc hits at least 100k usd. At least that is when we really see if crypto bros move into collectibles again or not. Everything else in your video is on point
Good point. There's also a much larger group of people that have a basis much closer to the current prices, which was less the case in the past during the crypto bull run, if only because crypto penetration to the general population was lower. These people indeed want to wait a little longer before trying to shift profits to something else.
I also think while a different ballgame than sealed vintage or collecting, proxies are much more commonplace than they used to be. Ever since Magic 30 where proxies were made to be ok, I have seen a lot more proxies in some decks
I agree, and the fact somebody wants a proxy is a signal that they don't consider this a collectible game, but rather, "just" a game.
@@AlphaHoarder Do you ever see a time where WOTC goes full digital because too many players proxy instead of buy new product?
Hard to say. That would effectively turn them into a mobile game powered by micro transactions. While the margins on that can be close to 100%, it's still going be a lot harder to generate the same amount of money per customer as paper magic does. Also, sealed and draft formats are relatively immune to the proxy issue. On the flipside, I don't yet have teenagers, but I hear that all their social interactions are pretty much mediated through a device at that point. Who knows how that will shake out, but it may well be that sitting down in person to play paper magic just doesn't have any appeal to the player base, at some point. So yes, I could imagine scenarios were wizards goes fully digital, but I don't think there's anything to indicate that's the inevitable outcome (yet).
Did not know the connection to Mt Gox and Magic. Very interesting!
As a 43 y/old commander player who bought packs of The Dark, Legends, and Revised in 1995 I think all the work WOTC is putting in to align profitably with playability and enjoyment of the game will ultimately bring in more players who will ultimately have interest in collecting old cards. It takes decades sometimes for generations to build up enough wealth to do they buying and to get familiar enough with vintage cards to feel confident in buying/collecting. Buying any ABU is an excellent long-term hold imo, just short-term maybe not. Magic's old and new player base is powerful, commander playability is powerful, and any ABU cards that are playable in commander should be more of a focus for collectors imo, because those will be the familiar diamonds that those commander players will seek as they start getting into the investment time in their lives.
Love hearing the positive outlook! Hope you have it right.
I don't follow Rudy, just because he puts out too much to keep up with. I really enjoyed this format of you responding or commenting on a topic by someone else.
I appreciate the feedback!
The crypto market now dictates when the cardboard pumps. I know ALOT of whales who put millions into MTG last cycle. It’s happening again! Cheers Mike. Appreciate your videos
Definitely
What is the point to put money into Magic as a whale? Is it to push it when it's low and generate hysteria amongst the timmy's and then sell into the market?
This has been true for a cpuple years now. Great observation!
Chexck out George Trichs "periods to make money " chart. Will see their wont be a real financial market stability until 2026
I was thinking about your generational hand off talks while I was watching that Rudy video. I agree it's really odd to see Rudy acknowledge it given that he's usually so overly bullish. I think a lot of the card games are having similar problems. In Pokémon and Yu-Gi-Oh all the focus is on the new stuff while the vintage side is flat or down. Definitely challenges ahead for all three although in theory the modern stuff doing well should be a good sign. I just wish Magic would put unique artwork on the serialised cards! The exact same card with a little number in the corner is such a sham! Not a huge fan of Universes beyond either. It feels like any identity Magic had is being washed away. Is Magic now just destined to be a western version of Weiss Schwarz? 🤔
Interesting what you said about people seeing Rudy and becoming overconfident. I think people forget that Rudy is only in his late 30's, he's still learning the same as the rest of us. I doubt his opinions will be the same in 30 years when he's got decades more experience to draw on. He brings some excellent knowledge to the table but his word should never be taken as gospel.
I pretty much agree with all of that!
I agree modern mtg has no clear innovation/soul in it. I kinda feel there might have been an order to publish serialized cards and more traditional department took the order biting tongues: 'fine, we'll just slam some kind serialization to the card, are you happy now!?'
To me it looks like they just wanted to throw most basic serialized version to a wall and look if it sticks. Then just multiply this again and again. Now they have started to think a bit that maybe those cards should be more special and even those alternate arts will be coming surely at some point.
Not sure if this is a catastrophic standpoint how to proceed new innovation like this but it definetely has some cannibalizing elements in it. Making cards 0/100 and more desirable will cannibalize company's older lazy releases heavily and people realizes there will be no value left in their collection probably nor they have playable cards in hands.
There is hope. I personally am disconecting from social media. It is liberating. I did take up Starcraft 2 in the process lol but there could be a transition away from digital media to paper media. Paper entertainment, people could discover this once forgotten game and then want to own it present and past. I don't know what it would take for that to happen but I picture like a renaissance of paper tabletop gaming which may drive demand. Rudy might be 69 years old by then and have dusty silver locks but all those boxes of modern era cards may spike.
Do you think Rudy is able to pay for his personal sets with all the sales? Or will it always be heavy bags if they don't all sell?
I agree there's a possibility of a resurgence. It feels like we're *maybe* approaching a pendulum swing on topics like screen-time for kids, social media for teens, and unsupervised play on childhood development. Such a renaissance could be great-- if Hasbro handles it right. The door is not closed.
I can only speculate on Rudy's exact business model, but if we take him at his word, he sells enough product to make profit (which must finance his life, his set buying, and his purchase of the next wizards release) and to keep some product with essentially no cost basis. He also has something like 4k patrons paying on average $15/m, plus YT Adsense on ~30 videos/m averaging ~20k views each. It seems to me he could make really good money even before selling anything, so it's definitely feasible that he's able to keep positions for himself and still profit. Whether he does or not, my guess is as good as yours.
I love old and new magic,
The quick releases today prevent people from having a love for a set, I mean I still have a solid memory of the zendikar ww era. But as soon as I blink we are moving on another set.
Also so many good replacements for dual lands have come out. Not as good pr better but they are acceptable in all formats.
Good point about the duals. It's true for most of the RL cards. As good as some of them are, you really don't need them in most cases and formats.
People are very heavily into Proxies. Even the few newer players I know that have continued to play for the last 4 or 5 years aren’t gravitating back towards Vintage Product. They Buy New Product and Proxy Old Stuff.
Yeah great point-- the proxy shift is a major marker of people treating magic as a game *only* instead of a collectible card game. When it was collectible, there was value in having the actual piece and putting money into it. If people devalue it as a collectible category, that will definitely affect interest in vintage stuff.
I think the proxies don't reduce the sale of vintage. When and if the proxy player gets enough money they might start buying/collecting vintage too.
Love your show!!! Please up the great show! Thanks
Ty 🤜🤛
I've always taken the long term view of this, but M30 made everything go from coming up roses to pushing up daisies, at least for a couple of years. It will take a long time to recover, if we recover. I have a lot of thoughts on this, but for now I'll avoid the wall of text and pushing the maximum length of a youtube comment and simply say that things are in an obvious state of flux right now and that Hasbro/WotC holds the key to what happens. Hope they learned something from the last couple of years.
But you know how much I love your walls of text on my videos! In any case, I agree. They could turn the ship around.
At the age of 39 I actually worry that my vintage cards value doesnt go up at least a few % p.a. over the next 25 years. I can imagine younger people wont care about old cards in the long run. I love my mtg cards, especially those from 1993-94 and I am still buying cards for my collection. But as an investment I find it too risky, so most of my money for that purpose goes into stocks/ETFs.
Smart. Risk should be part of every investment calculation, and I'm always stunned how many people don't even mention it.
Great analysis, I tend to agree with most you said here
It’s in everyone’s best interest to forget 2021 ever happened. We’re likely not going to experience anything in collectibles like that again for a long time if ever. As far as I can tell, prices are a bit higher than 2019, so I’m just writing off 2020 and 2021 as anomalies and moving on.
I love collecting old Magic cards, I love playing Old School and I don’t ever want Magic to die but anyone who spends as much as I do on old Magic cards should be concerned about their future and be developing an exit strategy (leaving them to your grandkids is probably a mistake). I’m not saying all at once or even soon, but at least think about it and find easy ways to reduce your risk while still collecting what you love.
Good take. Outliers in a dataset sometimes need to be omitted entirely
I feel that the current vintage market is the result of mid-level collectors exiting the market. I'm seeing many sales on ebay with most of the buyers just trying to get a deal rather than any FOMO buying. I think the FOMO buying is aimed toward the serialized hype that we are just getting started with in these new collector boxes. But the money will change, just as it always does. Demand will return (I'm biased. I just like the stock) But I genuinely feel that it will.
Definitely could be. Lots of speculators or short term dealers emptying inventory could take a while to shake through the system.
It would be crazy to expect the kind of influx we experienced from the perfect storm -- peak generational nostalgia, crypto, and government stimulus. A lot of us are still coming down from that frenzy, but that should be treated as an outlier. I think it will take a media event - such as a hit TV show or film - to drive it back up. Meantime, I wonder how much nostalgia/yearning was actually created DURING the 2016 - 2022 rage? A whole new crop could be hungering for these cards simply because they watched it bloom in such a thrilling way. Who. Knows.
Very true. The combination of high cost to enter plus an unprecedented amount of social media exposure does create a number of reasonable outcomes where the next generation is after these cards they just can't participate yet, so we don't see it yet. Definitely possible.
Another factor is the growth of the digital game and the death of the LGS as well as the hard shift away from growing the in person events, which have become more exclusive and much older.
💯
I don’t think that young generations will not come to the old cards. I mean, i’m 35 and i’m now starting to chase Alpha just because I’m finally Financially stabilized. I might see that many people from 80’ will buy their old and beloved cards once they become healthy and finish to pay their home/interests. My two cents 😊
Best regards!
You could very well be right. The cost of entry combined with the current economic situation for many younger people could be concealing their interest
Really nice vidéo...!
Thanks for watching as always, my friend
The alpha Wall of wood market has fallen through the floor. There was only 23 available on cardmarket only a year ago, but theres now over 80 and iv been able to pick up some for £12 shipped, though generally more. ICE on the other hand is still hot :))
80 wow. At least that means you can get a bunch cheap!
Yeah, indeed makes a lot of sense. Spoke with a friend about this earlier this year.
It's a heavy linked nostalgia collectible.
Still, many very old coins still hold value, or it's is not the same case?
Numismatics has matured past pop-culture collectible and into a mature collectible. That's a much more stable and long-term market. Same for art. Magic is different because we have yet to see if it will transition or not. Most pop-culture collectibles are single-generation.
@@AlphaHoarder Thanks so much for this information. Truly makes a lot of sense and i had no idea at all that a transition existed. I suppose the same happens with stamps. We will find out though. Are the baseball player cards in the same field as MTG?
I'm not in the sports world so I can only comment as an outsider, but cards like T206 Honus Wagner show that parts of that hobby have definitely transitioned into maturity and become multi-generational.
@@AlphaHoarder 😮
The generational handoff is possible but it will take a different form. They didn’t grow up with them as they came out and did not experience it the same. It is only a collectible to them… conceptually. Older players often buy to play still and transact them regularly, drop them and pick them up not for collectibility purposes.
The other concept I don’t hear discussed often is the concept of the bell curve. These will all be worth nothing at some point. That’s a fact. Perhaps that will be 3 generations or 150 years from now, long after we’re all long gone. But the cards have no intrinsic value if the game goes away. It is t silver, gold, rare coins… it is an obscure item. I’m sure that some people will find an interest in it and they will be around but there are plenty of cards to support that niche level of interest… so it will in fact go towards that outcome in the 2nd or 3rd generational handoff if you keep in mind that the game itself is generally played it’s hand in the sense that they don’t really have allot of new ideas and are just repackaging the same concepts with new themes.
What you said about M30 was right on
Good point about the bell curve
What’s his motivation for saying what he’s saying, even if he believes it? Reputation? Being right? Or trying to buy the dips, etc.?
Good question, and always smart to step back and consider incentives since they so often makes sense of things. In this case, I don't know. I'm a Rudy fan so I'm not knocking him, but the fact he is selling things to his viewers inexorably muddies the waters. I took his comments at face value, but I can't say for sure that was the right lens.
I'd be curious what you think.
Thoughts on collectors edition?
I don't have any particular thoughts on that edition… I expect it will continue to track at the same relative proportions that it has with Alpha and Beta, going forward. There might be a little bit less player interest since straight proxies have become much more acceptable after magic 30… But otherwise I don't see anything major changing in that market
People with money atm are buying original art and artist proofs, market is exploding as everyone is realizing that they are significantly cooler and better than serialized cards and are very fun to collect and its something new to think about if you dont have a lot of pieces. Once the vast majority of the best art / proofs left are bought up, I feel like people will return to the 4 horsemen and old mtg in some amount.
I noticed that too about proofs... and yeah, especially with a sketch, that's true 1 of 1!
People are going to get rocked/shocked when the $600 selling event finally kicks in with the IRS. Not saying one way or the other thoughts but i think a lot of people are going to be shocked when those forms get sent out, even though people should be reporting that revenue regardless if you got the form or not.
I will say this, i play commander still with about 8 buddies that i grew up and a new friend group, aside from me (all in the 35-45 age range), none have any desire to just collect ABU, they just play commander and buy modern cards. All good but if the biggest format is currently Commander according to WOTC, i don't expect ABU to to sky rocket like the days of the covid checks, i think we've seen a dip from the spending of covid and now a slight correction back from the dip. On top of the reality that most younger players aren't going to have a ton of capital to splurge on old cards, especially in this current economy.
I agree
I don’t know, I collect baseball cards too, and have for almost 40 years now. What did I hear then- and now? Kids today don’t appreciate the old players, they are only after the modern cards. And let me tell you, vintage cards are extremely popular. To the point where we go back far enough that NO ONE was opening these packs. They are all long since dead. So I guess we have to see if the pessimism I saw in that hobby is what Magic is seeing now. Time will tell.
Very true -- sports cards definitely transitioned to a mature multi-generational hobby
you should become a react channel
❤❤❤
It’s because confidence in vintage magic as a sound investment is low. 30th anniversary. Hasbro leadership.
Agreed. Do you think those are short term issues, or systemic issues?
if iam not mistaken its the millenials that grew up with magic. our incomes are increasing at this stage but we are getting married, trying to buy homes or raise kids at the moment. in 8 years or so, millenials will be reaching their peak earning years and their baby boomer parents will start dying off. they will have more time and money to put into hobbies. as long as hasbro can keep millenails interested in paper magic up to that time, they might start spending that extra income on magic.
Good point
lets make a collecting video together :) interview style
It means a lot that you consider what I have to say worthwhile. Tbh, I've so far dodged every such invitation I've received, all for personal reasons. But, why don't you shoot me an email so I have your contact.
Also keep in mind: We came from a timeline with basically 0% interest rates for a while. Now it's a 6%. That is a very strong argument in terms of investment choices. Sure MTG isn't a real investment, but basically performed as one over the last 25-30 years. However if risk is high and reward is probably low, then why not take the save approach with the 6% ? Reasonable i'd say.
I definitely agree that's what halted the speculation and hype, and caused things to cool. But in order to grow long term, when all this dust settles, the hobby needs to be larger than it is today. That's where I think the issue is deeper than the current economics
@@AlphaHoarder
i believe you are right. However what i really cant believe is, that there wont be new participants joining the old stuff collectors. checking prices of todays magic especially, it is questionable to pay like $400 on freshly printed stuff, and contiuously rising, and not growing interest in actual collectibles instead, which also seem to be kinda cheap in comparison to new boxes. Coz whatever rare or flashy version hasbro prints, more likely than not, there will be a flashier one. An alpha sol Ring stays an alpha sol Ring. It is always beautiful.
What i am shocked, literally shocked, is that people pay 2000 and more on a borsalina or zorro card from OP.
16:16 Jump
Tried to sneak that one through 😁
Also, if you want to be smart, Alpha collectors should take notice of market cycles in modern product, the speed of and volume of the sets is an advantage if you understand what's happening. Attention and distraction en masse play a big role, new mechanics resurrect old sets, $20 commander decks sold at Walmart in 2020 sell for $60-$90 now. The "popularity" of a set dictates short or long print runs, and the sell through rates and bottoming out of prices of collector boxes dipping down to $115 sitting on the shelf are waiting for you. Those boxes pop back up to $190 a year later, meanwhile a vintage collector was picking up cards hoping for 20% gains in 5 years?!?! Are you not entertained? Do these opportunities seem inaccessible to you?
Both Rudy and Mike make good points, but both individuals are millionaires and maybe don't see this angle. During the last 18 months, there has been a bloodbath of tech layoffs and many other good paying jobs. Lost income is a sure way to force people to sell their magic cards, putting downward pressure on prices, since many people making over 100k a year live pay check to pay check. Two years ago, vintage magic prices were through the roof, and a lack of new collectors entering the market does not explain the decline of prices so quickly.
As a foreigner I have read news that numbers of US's economy should be pretty strong and economy growing rapidly but this time it's somehow different based on comments on these boards. What am I missing? Can the economy grow no one noticing it? Do we have such short memory and we compare the situation to covid where free money was poured and people start to think it's a new normal? I'd say young people got extremely bad example as a generation experience from that time (everything just don't only go up with time)
Good point. Macroeconomic conditions are a major factor.
Please look at Gerogre Trich's chart "periods to make money" from 1875 , according to this chart rhere wont be a peiod of "good times until 2026. When people have more buying power , until then people wont buy as many collectibles because they dont have disposi le income.
True. Newer player interest in vintage cards might be held back until they get disposable income.
Blockchain will be highly vulnerable to Qauntum computing in the future.
Possibly, though I have my doubts. SHA-256 isn't susceptible to quantum operations, so the historical integrity of the blockchain is safe. The issue would be EDSCA-based private keys. However, keep in mind the Bitcoin protocol can be updated at any time, and quantum computers are 2 orders of magnitude too small to even attempt this, at present. It's also an open question if they can ever get to that scale (decoherence may be unsolvable).
My guess is if they start getting remotely close, Bitcoin protocol will move to a different key generation method.
So, I do think that the cards we collect will someday boom again in a generational handoff. Maybe not anytime soon. And maybe they won't pass the all time highs of the Covid mass stupidity era. But it all comes down to disposable income that the next generation doesn't really have yet. I'm more concerned about future generations' ability to accumulate wealth and how that will impact the hobby and all things.
I started playing during Revised and had very little ABU, 4 horseman stuff as a kid. I could only afford to be a player. I quit around 5th Edition. Now, I collect most things vintage from Alpha through Scourge despite not having been a player or collector during most of those sets. You have said yourself that you started playing in 95, and now you're the Alpha Hoarder. A baseball card colldctor born in 1981 still wants a Ty Cobb or Mickey Mantle in their collection. People with money and success get bored and eventually lean into the things they love in an obsessive way. The same people crying about game pieces now will be collectors/investors someday when they grow up.......hopefully. We'll see. I'll love it until I die either way.
You definitely could be right, and the economic situation for younger people might, in fact, be concealing their demand. And I agree, collectors do tend to seek hobby trophies. Looking at my own case, I wonder how much has to do with the fact that the Alpha cards share the artwork with the cards I spent so much time with, or indeed, the fact I spent so much time with the same set of cards and built that nostalgia. Those two things are different for today's younger players... but it's hard to say how much that factors in. No doubt the "formula" has multiple components.
@AlphaHoarder That's a good point. I was thinking something similar as I was flipping through my Unlimited album last night. The fact that most of those cards share the same artwork with my original experience definitely has some impact on how they trigger me now.
It's an interesting thing to ponder. Another thing is that we played with the versions of the cards. How does that factor in? Does it make sense, for example, the players today might eventually be interested in Alpha Mana Vaults because it's a card they play with, albeit with different art? But they'll have no interest whatsoever in Shivan Dragon? I wish I knew the answers.
@@AlphaHoarderHard to say. I can't possibly answer those questions objectively. You're talking about something doubly sacred to me. Alpha plus one of the best pieces by my favorite artist. By comparison, any Mana Vault that comes out now is toilet paper. Will newer players view our ABU Vaults the same way or will there be some appreciation of history? Does that appreciation carry over to an unplayable card like Shivan? It's probably something in between. Our cards will likely always hold some value. Still, it's probably best to not look at it as an investment. You really do have to love it.
Didn't you recently say that you were going to stop buying Alpha cards? Sounds like my mum saying that she will stop eating sweets :)
Haha yeah, I did. At least I can spot the irony in my own situation, which is one of the reasons I put "hoarder" in my name! In any case, I still have a backlog of about 200 packages, so I'll be opening things for a while yet, making those comments look ever more hypocritical 😂 But yes, in truth, there are only a small number of cards that I'm still after for accumulation purposes. Outside of those are a handful of collection pieces that have been on my bucket list all the while I was busy with Alpha. I hope to bang a few of those out in due course, no matter what happens in the market.
Its like golden age comic books. I dont have interest on those coz i find the art weird. I was born in ‘79 so i prefer 80s comic book art.
Yeah, for sure
M30 made me not give a shit. I still love old magic, but fuck wotc
Yup 🫤