Additional earnings reports from major tech companies, driven by Nvidia, coupled with trader FOMO, could fuel a resurgence in market buying pressure. I'm considering investing over $300k, but I'm uncertain about risk mitigation strategies.
Nvidia stock is roaring like many did during the 1990s bubble. But this time around, the hype around new chips is happening in a more mature demand environment.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfOlio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay finan-cially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on invest-ments.
When ‘Carol Vivian Constable’ is trading, there's no nonsense and no excuses. She wins the trade and you win. Take the loss, I promise she'll take one with you.
Is NVIDIA a safe buy to outperform the market this year? I'm tired of these new buys every week, just to make up some assets with low percentage on my $136k portfolio and try to keep everything around 10%.
Yes! but still make your own research. And I would avoid the index funds, mutual funds, or specific stocks for the time being. The 5% fixed incomes are the safest bet for now. Or hire/ work with a good market strategist. Youre safer that way
I took charge of my portfolio but faced losses in 2022. Realizing the need for a change, I sought advice from a fiduciary advisor. Through restructuring and diversification with dividend stocks, ETFs, Mutual funds, and REITs, my $610k portfolio surged, yielding an annualized gain of 28%.
massive gains! mind sharing details of your adviser pleas? i've started gaining more cash flow with my employment and looking at putting money into stocks and alternative assets that can help fuel my money goal
Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Well my formula is simple. Hold cash and wait till the market re-levels so I can make new buys again. Or are there any ways I can avoid a crunch and maximize my savings of $550k? I know election years are positive for the stock market about 90% of the time.
Agreed, I once downplayed the role of financial experts until suffering 40% portfolio loss amid 2020 lockdown, at once I consulted an advisor with grit and my portfolio was revamped. As of today, I'm just about 25% shy of $1m after 100s of thousands invested.
@@mette-lo I've worked in real estate for over 25 years and have neglected a major stock portfolio. This served me well when I was flipping and renting houses, however I need a different plan now.. mind if I vet the professional guiding you please?
thanks for putting this out, her site appeared first thing as I searched Katherine Nance Dietz on my browser, super impressed with her qualifications, she seems highly professional with over two decades of experience ...
if Nvidia loses 50% of it's share price, it's going to take the whole market down with it. as much weight as this stock carries among funds, ETF's institutional holders, it would be ugly. But it just might be what the stock market needs 🤷🏻♂️
They are making the hardware that powers what everyone wants to use. Doesnt matter how those companies use it or if they use it efficiently. Nvida is providing the fuel and the demand is increasing. Its not dropping 50% anytime soon
NVDA is a very mature company. AI Large Language models are not one trick ponies like 3d printing etc. Militaries, countries, and companies will be left in the dirt if they don't incorporate AI into their processes. NVDA is their to provide the chips. No company is even close to what they have to offer. Most people do understand that they are light years ahead of competition. Buy Buy Buy NVDA is a10x bagger. Don't get left behind.😅
they really are though. they're nothing but a remake of search engines and mobile assistants, and a bad remake at that. things like basic machines taking basic jobs like restaurant or warehouse work is often misbranded as AI. but the machines are just doing simple repetitive tasks all day, they're not using AI. these machines have been around and steadily growing forever.
Nvidia is a volatile stock. In the last six years, Nvidia has had two 50% drawdowns. So yes Nvidia can drop 50%. However, in the last six years it is a 20 bagger.
We did the same thing! It's pulling back as of about an hour ago something happened yesterday where it broke 140.. now it's pulling back I suspect to maybe 1:26 at most before I retest. And if it goes back down to 120 I will buy more
Nvidia has always been an industry leader because they make high quality products. Unless a radical change happens at the management level, this will continue, and almost all of the future technology around games, movies, compuation, cloud services, will run on nvidia hardware. Unlike Meta, Google and Amazon, nvidia's success is based the quality of its products, not just market domination and/or gobbling up its competitors. Even if there's a pullback, nvidia is still the best investment long term. Set trailing stop losses on your positions, and then buy more when the stock price drops.
In my opinion, its a big mistake to assume that artificial intelligence has to generate revenue at this early adoption phase to matter. AI and LLMs can be used to create things that are not meant for sale. The countries and companies with the highest amount of computing power and most sophisticated AI models will simply develop their technology at a higher rate than others, leading to an exponential growth difference. Bioweapons, medicine, nanotechnology and chip development, to name a few, don't have to bring in revenue for them to have a large impact.
I think what everyone is missing is not what AI will bring but what it will replace. It's more about the money it saves, not the money it makes. Companies that don't have it will be outcompeted by companies that do. NVDA products will be a must have and is the big winner it in all.
We are all expecting a correction of 10 to 20% 11:12 in the overall market when the S&P 500 hits 5500 or 5600, that’s where Nvidia may nosedive to 40% or much less(97$,87,70$ a share) until that happens, Nvidia is going to 150$. They have a big catalyst coming on June 20 of this year.
I like the clear-eyed and skeptical analysis. But what I still like about NVIDIA is their claim, if true, to be exploding Moore's Law with more powerful chips each and better ways of linking them together. Also, I like the semiconductor market in general because I'm pretty sure that at least for several years to come until things are done differently (perhaps quantum computing), whatever direction technology takes, it will require chips. In some ways, this is actually demonstrated by the fact that NVIDIA is able to pivot with the hype, as you've noted. In the medium to long run, I expect that what will happen is that AI will in fact be the important trend, not because disembodied voices will write their own UA-cam scripts but because business thrives on using the best and increasingly the biggest datasets to do the best problem-solving. NVIDIA's parade of new, linked chips may be the key to that. If that's not what happens, NVIDIA will still power your gaming and whatever else is happening. But I think I will invest more in the broad chip market than NVIDIA itself because, as you note, competitors are always there in the rearview. NVIDIA may or not win the chips wars, but I'm pretty sure chips will continue to do well in the overall market.
According to the IDC study, the average return that companies have received from their AI investments is 3.5 times higher. While, thanks to artificial intelligence, 5% of organizations have increased their profitability by an average of 8 times.
Travis, as a shareholder I don’t like the thought of nvda dropping, I get worried now. Too bad with all this hate in the comments towards you , hope you’re doing okay. Anyway, do you own nvda?
The only way that NVIDIA will drop 50% is either bad earnings or the whole market crashed, increasing interest rates..high in inflation, another war breaks out… in which case other stocks will crash 50% or more as well… other than that it’ll corrects at 20%-30% tops but the whole market will go down with it… if the market is green, NVIDIA will stay green. And if the earnings is good or better, it’ll be back to $1000 over time.
Would finally be the level where I could get in. I was one of the „stupid“ people giving up right before the AI panic rose the stock… every day seeing this stock running hurts and the FOMO is about to get extreme. :/
It will be a very daunting task for any company to catch-up to Nvidia. Years ago when Nvidia was innovating on GPU's, and with the crucial CUDA software, all other companies were sleeping at the wheel. First mover advantage has its advantage. Don't subscribe to the rearview mirror analysis.
Nvidia is a great company and will dominate over its market. NVDA on the other hand is exposed to so many outside factors that can bring the stock price up or down.
I don't agree with any of this, especially his comparison to Tesla. IMO Tesla and Nvidia are an apples to oranges comparison. Tesla used a technology which everyone had access to so competitors started using it too and caught up. In Nvidia's case, they are the technology.
I'm not going to lie, hearing this comparison to the metaverse makes me really apprehensive of taking the information from the rest of the video. The only people hyped about metaverse were investors and Mark Zuck. Consumers and primarily, anyone that's played a video game in the last 20 years knew how lame it was and how little value it had. It was literally like if your grandfather found out how to play the sims on a VR headset and thought they had a business idea. VRchat already exists and Zuck and many other companies were trying to launch "metaverses" that were essentially just a sims game merged with VR chat. There was very little to no real customer value to it. Same with NFTs. Anyone that's played a video game in the last 10 years knew how dumb the hype was because we've been selling gun skins on steam like that for a decade. On the AI side I think a lot of people tried selling AI as the product, but as someone who's worked in marketing for close to a decade, it was simple to see AI was a feature of something bigger. Therefore, NVIDIA is selling the shovels to the gold rush. COUPLE THAT with the fact that most people still don't know what to do with AI. Buying into NVIDIA is essentially betting on whether you think AI will be an integral part of the technology we use every day, once all those "geniuses" in tech figure out how to make a good product out of it.
@@asymmetricinvesting I talked shit, so I’m coming back to give you some props on forecasting the drop! Not sure if this is what you meant but we are definitely having one. 🍻
I am now worried about my 2025 of September $220 call Price it was $500 and some dollars up this morning and now it's down over $300 nvidia's down by like 4%
Actually a very well thought out video informing people to be wary of frothy expectations but my god so many morons on the internet get butthurt coz their favourite stock is not just gonna go straight up. But man, this vid got you wayyyy more engagement than usual eh lol.
NVDA's business model is based on the fact that companies will have to keep buying newer chips to stay relevant in the AI race, the only way NVDA revenue drops is if huge cap companies drop out of the AI race, which isn't likely. Metaverse was a concept that filled no demand and fulfilled no purpose, it was doomed to fail from the start and Tesla has way more competition than NVDA will likely ever have. NVDA is years ahead of other chipmakers.
3D printing was never an Industrial Revolution. Blockchain still has no broad, legitimate use case. Comparing NVDA to CSCO tells me that you do not have any understanding of the underlying technology. CSCO had no technology moat and a huge number of their customers had NO revenue whatsoever. Is NVDA volatile? Yes it is. Are you right? Maybe, but I’m betting not.
In the moment, a lot of people thought 3D printing was an industrial revolution. hbr.org/2015/05/the-3-d-printing-revolution www.jacksonville.com/story/news/2016/12/19/3d-printing-poised-next-industrial-revolution/15736325007/ Cisco had great technology. In fact, it's still a great business. It was just insanely overvalued because it was abstracted away. Is your internet connection running on Cisco equipment? You don't know. Is your AI run on NVIDIA chips? You don't know. History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.
The lesson here is that there are market trends and fashions. Also Semiconductors stocks are cyclical and can changeable with the economy or liquidity in the market. In the very short term it will continue to go up however. Due to Index re-balancing and the fact stocks tend to go up in an election year and interest rates coming down. In the very long term it's gone up 3400% in 5 years.
The stock is not pricing the growth of the next ten years, but the growth of the next 2. Eps are forecasted to grow 90% in the next 2. Since the P/E ratio is 80 now, 2 years from now it's gonna have a pe of 42. So yes it probably a little bit overvalued, but not so much.
Hey Travis, I totally agree with you. I hope all the best for nvidia investors but the main question is : where is the profit about the AI nowadays? I can’t see profit and by the time the major players will find the way of profit, other competitors will have their own solutions for AI computing. It always starts like that, one or few trace the direction and then others join enlarging the way. Correction is coming so be aware.
In the end of March 2024 Nvidia went from 950 to 760 A drop of 20 percent 1 month later is was back up to 950 then a week later it was 1100 Nothing goes up in a straight line Nothing has changed No target prices have been reduced in the last week
I am a coder on a timeout until I see where things are going and maybe switch career, I feel everybody is using a little too much AI to drop salaries and we get too much hate as it is. Anyway, I am subscribed to 2 websites and there was an increase to 3x for coders in the week before, it looks like Nvidia might be causing too many economic issues and affecting business trust for 2 years now.
I agree with the risk factors. Once tech companies report shows there are no immediate revenue generation benefits from Ai, that’s when you know that demand will slow. And when that happens people will sell. Then panic selling ensues. People like to say there will be no competition but there always will be especially when other companies like amd know this is a cash cow business, which will only increase supply, drive down prices, and ultimately margins. That’s when shit will hit the fan. Who knows when that will happen? Again I believe Nvidia is a wonderful company and has done really well reinventing itself and expanding into new markets. But admittedly it is a CYCLICAL business. If tech companies buying these chips don’t see the ROI for them, the future demand for Blackwell or Rubin might slowdown no matter what people say AI is gonna change the world. I believe so too. But I’ve seen these hype cycles over and over again since 2012, and trust me, when you see parabolic stock surge like Nvidia has done in so short of time, people will take profits and panic sell just so quickly. Stay safe out there. It’s good to see a rational contrarian video. No one’s gonna like you when you become a bear at these levels since euphoria levels are high. 😊
Everyone is saying in the comments that Travis is wrong and that Nvidia will go up like a rocket in the future. Maybe he can be wrong in the short run but for middle run he can prove. Look to the stocks he advised. Matterport made approximately 180% in my portfolio, Spotify I bought from 220$ now it is around 310$, Gm was 39$ now around 47$ . These were the stocks with little risk. (Matterport was 1.90$, Gm p/e was around 4$…etc. You may have earned much more from Nvidia , I also bought around 400$ and sell around 800$. No one is predictor. And as an investor I am buying shares as low risk such as Google,Gm, ..etc. A stock should have low downside potential and have upside potential for future. Think about the game theory and the boys trying to convince the girl(in the movie of beautiful mind) all the boys have lost. It is same thing if everybody is buying Nvidia I am out. Zero sum game
I really wanted to give you an ear after reading all of the commenters clowning on you. As soon as you said Metaverse had ANY hype, you lost me. Metaverse was clowned on since day one. How can I take you seriously if you actually took Metaverse seriously?
I think this is a very fair concern about NVIDIA stock, especially with historic data backing up those predictions. It's absolutely incredibly how many people in the comments are willfully blind just because they're hearing something they don't want to hear.
This is a bad take. Seems like this guy lacks knowledge in engineering, machine learning, LLMs, GPUs, or Nvidia as a company in general. Maybe a reasonable, healthy pull-back here and there, but the stock experiencing 50% pull-back is unlikely, unless TSMC gets bombed by China or something. Yes, there are startups popping up, but none of them are trying to challenge nvidia, only to get a piece of the pie because of how many applications and opportunities there are in machine learning…
The comparison to past dips in any hyper-growth stocks or prior NVDA share price dips is flawed. AI is a fundamental building block, in the same realm as the advent of the automobile, telephone, or Internet. AI is not an evolution of what exists, it is a new paradigm which renders such comparisons to past performance or previous market dips irrelevant in relation to future NVDA share price growth. The only way NVDA drops significantly is they fumble their sector leadership position, a la Intel. But I don't believe Jensen will make the Intel mistake of complacency and excessive hubris. A guy that starts as a Denny's busboy . . . tends to remember what it's like to be on the bottom rung of life.
Perfect examples. The Model T was introduced in 1908 and over the next 20 years automobile manufacturing exploded. The auto industry then went through a massive crash in the 1930s and very few automakers would generate any value for investors over the next 90 years. I showed the Cisco chart, a company that was growing at NVIDIA-like rates. It's the backbone of the modern internet, just like NVIDIA with AI. And it was one of the most valuable companies in the world in 1999...only to crash. History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. And this time is no different.
@@asymmetricinvesting 1. If you give me 22 years before AI competitors cause NVDA to crash, I'll take that. 2. Cisco crashed in 2000 because of market speculation as it related to all things .com, excessive inventory, a general economic slowdown, and investor panic. So yes, Cisco crashed, but it wasn't only Cisco and it wasn't for a single reason.
Most people don't realize that the current ("primitive") AI isn't trained and developed on these new data centers yet. As a result, there are significant limitations in performance and costs. Once these new data centers are fully operational, we will witness the real Matrix in action. A new world completely dependant on NVIDIA products.
I love videos like this! I mark them and keep them in a folder so I can come back in a year and see how these predictions hold up. I'm just an idiot retail investor but I fail to see how AI is the same as the metaverse or 3D printing. What do I know? Interesting time to invest. Thanks for the video.
I encourage you to do that. This is a fun one to look back on. A lot of hate in the comments, but Tesla has underperformed since this video and revenue growth has gone negative and margins have collapsed. ua-cam.com/video/Pz0FUHHwIEY/v-deo.html
What revenue? Less than 100bln a year for a 3tln company? Doesn't make much sense, Apple has 90+bln net margin with over 200bln revenue every year and is worth less than nvda
Maybe. Maybe not. But there are no alternatives... Yet... It will take years before the competition catches up. If you had to dig a trench, would you rather dig it up with a spoon instead of a shovel because it's cheaper? Both get the job done. NVDA will be fine until some serious competition arrives. Till then, enjoy the ride if you're already in it. I wouldn't be adding at these levels, though. Its valuation is definitely stretched. Also, comparing the AI sector to the auto sector doesn't makes sense. I can live without a car. I can't go back to living without Gen AI.
What happens when it turns out you dug too many trenches and the war was averted so the trenches are useless? If you used a spoon, you wouldnt spend so much money on digging them. You'd also be left with a lot less useless trenches.
Thanks for video.. Investment awareness is critical..i bought some NVD because it was more affordable after split..but i didn't put all my eggs in that basket and i will be watching my hatchlings 🐣
Good analysis. Keep us sane. Obviously, a lot of comments below didn't come from serious research. Typical shoe-shine boy story moment now. At the same time, I would ask the author, would you trim now? btw, I have a large long position in this stock.
💰 If you like this video, check out my free Asymmetric Investing Newsletter for more investment analysis: asymmetric-investing.beehiiv.com/subscribe?
Additional earnings reports from major tech companies, driven by Nvidia, coupled with trader FOMO, could fuel a resurgence in market buying pressure. I'm considering investing over $300k, but I'm uncertain about risk mitigation strategies.
Nvidia stock is roaring like many did during the 1990s bubble. But this time around, the hype around new chips is happening in a more mature demand environment.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfOlio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay finan-cially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on invest-ments.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advsor here? I’m in dire need for one
When ‘Carol Vivian Constable’ is trading, there's no nonsense and no excuses. She wins the trade and you win. Take the loss, I promise she'll take one with you.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was to find her handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
Is NVIDIA a safe buy to outperform the market this year? I'm tired of these new buys every week, just to make up some assets with low percentage on my $136k portfolio and try to keep everything around 10%.
Yes! but still make your own research. And I would avoid the index funds, mutual funds, or specific stocks for the time being. The 5% fixed incomes are the safest bet for now. Or hire/ work with a good market strategist. Youre safer that way
I took charge of my portfolio but faced losses in 2022. Realizing the need for a change, I sought advice from a fiduciary advisor. Through restructuring and diversification with dividend stocks, ETFs, Mutual funds, and REITs, my $610k portfolio surged, yielding an annualized gain of 28%.
massive gains! mind sharing details of your adviser pleas? i've started gaining more cash flow with my employment and looking at putting money into stocks and alternative assets that can help fuel my money goal
Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find her handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
Well my formula is simple. Hold cash and wait till the market re-levels so I can make new buys again. Or are there any ways I can avoid a crunch and maximize my savings of $550k? I know election years are positive for the stock market about 90% of the time.
trade the chart, else you'd be waiting a long time! learn how to create a basket of securities like an expert or seek guidance from one
Agreed, I once downplayed the role of financial experts until suffering 40% portfolio loss amid 2020 lockdown, at once I consulted an advisor with grit and my portfolio was revamped. As of today, I'm just about 25% shy of $1m after 100s of thousands invested.
@@mette-lo I've worked in real estate for over 25 years and have neglected a major stock portfolio. This served me well when I was flipping and renting houses, however I need a different plan now.. mind if I vet the professional guiding you please?
Katherine Nance Dietz is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with and set up an appointment.
thanks for putting this out, her site appeared first thing as I searched Katherine Nance Dietz on my browser, super impressed with her qualifications, she seems highly professional with over two decades of experience ...
if Nvidia loses 50% of it's share price, it's going to take the whole market down with it. as much weight as this stock carries among funds, ETF's institutional holders, it would be ugly. But it just might be what the stock market needs 🤷🏻♂️
It won't, has happened a lot of times before with stocks that had more weight than nvda has today
NVDA stock price will drop 50% to the destination point.
@@ernestogarcia9154 example?
I believe that will be the catalyst that starts the decline in the market and housing
They are making the hardware that powers what everyone wants to use. Doesnt matter how those companies use it or if they use it efficiently. Nvida is providing the fuel and the demand is increasing. Its not dropping 50% anytime soon
NVDA is a very mature company. AI Large Language models are not one trick ponies like 3d printing etc. Militaries, countries, and companies will be left in the dirt if they don't incorporate AI into their processes. NVDA is their to provide the chips. No company is even close to what they have to offer. Most people do understand that they are light years ahead of competition. Buy Buy Buy NVDA is a10x bagger. Don't get left behind.😅
AI in the military? I think they'll stick to guns and soldiers lol
they really are though. they're nothing but a remake of search engines and mobile assistants, and a bad remake at that. things like basic machines taking basic jobs like restaurant or warehouse work is often misbranded as AI. but the machines are just doing simple repetitive tasks all day, they're not using AI. these machines have been around and steadily growing forever.
The only way NVDA stock price will drop 50% is through a 1:2 split.
LMAO There are many many ways, but some people are too blinded to see🤷♂️
Just dropped over 4%
Spammer
@@kennylindahl2885 lil healthy dip, time to rocket again on Monday.
@@1lowtrade Just went below 122 today, not sure about healthy, but i hope so.
Edit: Went down close to 118 now
Nvidia is a volatile stock. In the last six years, Nvidia has had two 50% drawdowns. So yes Nvidia can drop 50%. However, in the last six years it is a 20 bagger.
AI is the future. I started buying after split @ 128. Have 50 shares
We did the same thing! It's pulling back as of about an hour ago something happened yesterday where it broke 140.. now it's pulling back I suspect to maybe 1:26 at most before I retest. And if it goes back down to 120 I will buy more
@@AlbertHoffman-mb6tv I had an order for 15 shares @ 130. Got filled. Now have 65. Will buy more tomorrow
im in at 113
w a little over 50 shares as well
If it did drop it would be 30% max, 50% nah, you don't know what you're talking about
I was saying the exact same thing and even with a pullback of 30% I'd buy more
@@AlbertHoffman-mb6tv
Lmao glad you're on the same page!
Nvidia has always been an industry leader because they make high quality products. Unless a radical change happens at the management level, this will continue, and almost all of the future technology around games, movies, compuation, cloud services, will run on nvidia hardware. Unlike Meta, Google and Amazon, nvidia's success is based the quality of its products, not just market domination and/or gobbling up its competitors. Even if there's a pullback, nvidia is still the best investment long term. Set trailing stop losses on your positions, and then buy more when the stock price drops.
Bingo!
Back to the real world bro, nothing goes up in value in a straight line
@@harryzou930 no one said it does. set a trailing stop loss to protect your gains. when it goes down, buy more.
Well said
At what % do you place stop loss?
In my opinion, its a big mistake to assume that artificial intelligence has to generate revenue at this early adoption phase to matter. AI and LLMs can be used to create things that are not meant for sale. The countries and companies with the highest amount of computing power and most sophisticated AI models will simply develop their technology at a higher rate than others, leading to an exponential growth difference. Bioweapons, medicine, nanotechnology and chip development, to name a few, don't have to bring in revenue for them to have a large impact.
Spot on
Once it never drops 50%, make sure to delete this vid
Lmaooo
Why delete the video? A different (bearish in this case) perspective is useful to any responsible investor.😂
@@maltlickytexas
Their perspective is wrong
lol
Ofc you dont own any Nvidia stock?
I think what everyone is missing is not what AI will bring but what it will replace. It's more about the money it saves, not the money it makes. Companies that don't have it will be outcompeted by companies that do. NVDA products will be a must have and is the big winner it in all.
Can you give an example of a company saving significant money using AI?
@@asymmetricinvesting copilot. a solid 30 seconds of googling to disprove your thesis.
Short term - yes. But long term AI will be used to create serious wealth.
@@cappybenton Can you give an example of how?
@@asymmetricinvesting copilot. weird how my comment got deleted.
If it drops to 50%, i will buy heavily bro🇺🇸
Right
there is no bubble. everyone is dependent on AI and semiconductors for 30 years.
AI is a good tool but it's overhyped by the people, also by Nvidia CEO
We are all expecting a correction of 10 to 20% 11:12 in the overall market when the S&P 500 hits 5500 or 5600, that’s where Nvidia may nosedive to 40% or much less(97$,87,70$ a share) until that happens, Nvidia is going to 150$. They have a big catalyst coming on June 20 of this year.
What's that catalyst?
I like the clear-eyed and skeptical analysis. But what I still like about NVIDIA is their claim, if true, to be exploding Moore's Law with more powerful chips each and better ways of linking them together. Also, I like the semiconductor market in general because I'm pretty sure that at least for several years to come until things are done differently (perhaps quantum computing), whatever direction technology takes, it will require chips. In some ways, this is actually demonstrated by the fact that NVIDIA is able to pivot with the hype, as you've noted. In the medium to long run, I expect that what will happen is that AI will in fact be the important trend, not because disembodied voices will write their own UA-cam scripts but because business thrives on using the best and increasingly the biggest datasets to do the best problem-solving. NVIDIA's parade of new, linked chips may be the key to that. If that's not what happens, NVIDIA will still power your gaming and whatever else is happening. But I think I will invest more in the broad chip market than NVIDIA itself because, as you note, competitors are always there in the rearview. NVIDIA may or not win the chips wars, but I'm pretty sure chips will continue to do well in the overall market.
According to the IDC study, the average return that companies have received from their AI investments is 3.5 times higher. While, thanks to artificial intelligence, 5% of organizations have increased their profitability by an average of 8 times.
Travis, as a shareholder I don’t like the thought of nvda dropping, I get worried now. Too bad with all this hate in the comments towards you , hope you’re doing okay. Anyway, do you own nvda?
This guy in the video obvi shorted NvIdIa and he's in trouble. Time to make a video lol
Hahaa true😂
Good point I’m honestly thinking about shorting them in a while they are due for at least a small correction
Who wants to bet that even though NVDA is down about 7% on the shorting of these past two days, it will finish up from here by the end of next week?
The only way that NVIDIA will drop 50% is either bad earnings or the whole market crashed, increasing interest rates..high in inflation, another war breaks out… in which case other stocks will crash 50% or more as well… other than that it’ll corrects at 20%-30% tops but the whole market will go down with it… if the market is green, NVIDIA will stay green. And if the earnings is good or better, it’ll be back to $1000 over time.
Would finally be the level where I could get in. I was one of the „stupid“ people giving up right before the AI panic rose the stock… every day seeing this stock running hurts and the FOMO is about to get extreme. :/
Some of the Mag 7 and NVDA CEO mentioned that they’re lining up to buy more chips.
Not a demand considering the price nvda is selling it for?
you are wrong, ai technology is exponential. Its just a long term investment, not short term.
It will be a very daunting task for any company to catch-up to Nvidia. Years ago when Nvidia was innovating on GPU's, and with the crucial CUDA software, all other companies were sleeping at the wheel. First mover advantage has its advantage. Don't subscribe to the rearview mirror analysis.
Drop 50% but people will buy dip, then another 1000% bull run.
Nvidia is a great company and will dominate over its market. NVDA on the other hand is exposed to so many outside factors that can bring the stock price up or down.
The Stock price is low now, it's not FOMO, it's a smart play for a long term investment. Outlook and fundamentals look great for the next three years.
It's the most valuable public company in the world and the stock price is low?... No wonder people lose money on the stock market all the time
@@ernestogarcia9154 Optimistic or Pessimistic? Take risk, speculate, take a loss, make returns, or avoid altogether. You choose.
Cool story broo lets see if they can compete against blackwell chip.@@ernestogarcia9154
I don't agree with any of this, especially his comparison to Tesla. IMO Tesla and Nvidia are an apples to oranges comparison. Tesla used a technology which everyone had access to so competitors started using it too and caught up. In Nvidia's case, they are the technology.
Everyone has the same access to nvda tech because they don't produce their chips
shorts are trying so harder
Several GREAT points, be aware of NVDA's demonstrated UP & DOWN growth, history repeats..
Thank
YOU
so much!
DR
This is not Meta!!!
I'm not going to lie, hearing this comparison to the metaverse makes me really apprehensive of taking the information from the rest of the video.
The only people hyped about metaverse were investors and Mark Zuck. Consumers and primarily, anyone that's played a video game in the last 20 years knew how lame it was and how little value it had.
It was literally like if your grandfather found out how to play the sims on a VR headset and thought they had a business idea. VRchat already exists and Zuck and many other companies were trying to launch "metaverses" that were essentially just a sims game merged with VR chat. There was very little to no real customer value to it. Same with NFTs. Anyone that's played a video game in the last 10 years knew how dumb the hype was because we've been selling gun skins on steam like that for a decade.
On the AI side I think a lot of people tried selling AI as the product, but as someone who's worked in marketing for close to a decade, it was simple to see AI was a feature of something bigger. Therefore, NVIDIA is selling the shovels to the gold rush.
COUPLE THAT with the fact that most people still don't know what to do with AI. Buying into NVIDIA is essentially betting on whether you think AI will be an integral part of the technology we use every day, once all those "geniuses" in tech figure out how to make a good product out of it.
Do you know who was extremely bullish on the metaverse? Jensen Huang! ua-cam.com/video/XE_EIbkGSW4/v-deo.html
www.nvidia.com/en-us/omniverse/
@9:48 Ok, dude looks at upside down graphs… now his take all makes sense.
It's a drawdowns graph. Those are the % drops from previous highs in NVIDIA stock.
@@asymmetricinvesting I talked shit, so I’m coming back to give you some props on forecasting the drop! Not sure if this is what you meant but we are definitely having one. 🍻
@@BuffaloMotivated Haha, we'll see if it lasts. A lot of moving parts here.
I am now worried about my 2025 of September $220 call Price it was $500 and some dollars up this morning and now it's down over $300 nvidia's down by like 4%
Actually a very well thought out video informing people to be wary of frothy expectations but my god so many morons on the internet get butthurt coz their favourite stock is not just gonna go straight up.
But man, this vid got you wayyyy more engagement than usual eh lol.
This guy has never done his research on Nvidia and it is obvious
NVDA's business model is based on the fact that companies will have to keep buying newer chips to stay relevant in the AI race, the only way NVDA revenue drops is if huge cap companies drop out of the AI race, which isn't likely. Metaverse was a concept that filled no demand and fulfilled no purpose, it was doomed to fail from the start and Tesla has way more competition than NVDA will likely ever have. NVDA is years ahead of other chipmakers.
Your logic works only if the technologies you compared with (3D printing, blockchain...) are comparable to AI. Problem is that AI is not.
3D printing was never an Industrial Revolution. Blockchain still has no broad, legitimate use case. Comparing NVDA to CSCO tells me that you do not have any understanding of the underlying technology. CSCO had no technology moat and a huge number of their customers had NO revenue whatsoever. Is NVDA volatile? Yes it is. Are you right? Maybe, but I’m betting not.
In the moment, a lot of people thought 3D printing was an industrial revolution.
hbr.org/2015/05/the-3-d-printing-revolution
www.jacksonville.com/story/news/2016/12/19/3d-printing-poised-next-industrial-revolution/15736325007/
Cisco had great technology. In fact, it's still a great business. It was just insanely overvalued because it was abstracted away. Is your internet connection running on Cisco equipment? You don't know. Is your AI run on NVIDIA chips? You don't know.
History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.
How about Nvidia's software lead?
The lesson here is that there are market trends and fashions. Also Semiconductors stocks are cyclical and can changeable with the economy or liquidity in the market. In the very short term it will continue to go up however. Due to Index re-balancing and the fact stocks tend to go up in an election year and interest rates coming down. In the very long term it's gone up 3400% in 5 years.
The stock is not pricing the growth of the next ten years, but the growth of the next 2. Eps are forecasted to grow 90% in the next 2. Since the P/E ratio is 80 now, 2 years from now it's gonna have a pe of 42. So yes it probably a little bit overvalued, but not so much.
Hey Travis, I totally agree with you. I hope all the best for nvidia investors but the main question is : where is the profit about the AI nowadays? I can’t see profit and by the time the major players will find the way of profit, other competitors will have their own solutions for AI computing. It always starts like that, one or few trace the direction and then others join enlarging the way. Correction is coming so be aware.
The valuation was around $375 a share with their diminished production.
In the end of March 2024
Nvidia went from 950 to 760
A drop of 20 percent
1 month later is was back up to 950 then a week later it was 1100
Nothing goes up in a straight line
Nothing has changed
No target prices have been reduced in the last week
Almost doubled my money on a $210 call option 2025 I am debating whether I should sell it now it lost $300 in one day and I only 25% my prophet
I am a coder on a timeout until I see where things are going and maybe switch career, I feel everybody is using a little too much AI to drop salaries and we get too much hate as it is. Anyway, I am subscribed to 2 websites and there was an increase to 3x for coders in the week before, it looks like Nvidia might be causing too many economic issues and affecting business trust for 2 years now.
The comments show that the top is very close
llm的算子变得单一化反而不利于cuda，以前科学计算各种算子千奇百怪大家爱用cuda追求稳定，但在llm时代这并不是一个问题，ai理论上是前后端分离的，torch也已经加入了其他品牌产品的支持，也并不是没有nvidia就做不了ai。另外llm也让以前百花齐放的ai变成了只有少数大厂才有能力迭代研发的垄断产品，这些大厂是有想法也有能力保护自己的供应链安全的，当它们发现自己从沙子从头开始做并不比疯狂买n卡贵多少的时候，并且自己的工程师更能随叫随到修bug的时候，老黄还能过得像这样滋润吗
I agree with the risk factors. Once tech companies report shows there are no immediate revenue generation benefits from Ai, that’s when you know that demand will slow. And when that happens people will sell. Then panic selling ensues. People like to say there will be no competition but there always will be especially when other companies like amd know this is a cash cow business, which will only increase supply, drive down prices, and ultimately margins. That’s when shit will hit the fan. Who knows when that will happen? Again I believe Nvidia is a wonderful company and has done really well reinventing itself and expanding into new markets. But admittedly it is a CYCLICAL business. If tech companies buying these chips don’t see the ROI for them, the future demand for Blackwell or Rubin might slowdown no matter what people say AI is gonna change the world. I believe so too. But I’ve seen these hype cycles over and over again since 2012, and trust me, when you see parabolic stock surge like Nvidia has done in so short of time, people will take profits and panic sell just so quickly. Stay safe out there.
It’s good to see a rational contrarian video. No one’s gonna like you when you become a bear at these levels since euphoria levels are high. 😊
Tell me you are not shorting it
?
Everyone is saying in the comments that Travis is wrong and that Nvidia will go up like a rocket in the future.
Maybe he can be wrong in the short run but for middle run he can prove.
Look to the stocks he advised. Matterport made approximately 180% in my portfolio, Spotify I bought from 220$ now it is around 310$, Gm was 39$ now around 47$ . These were the stocks with little risk. (Matterport was 1.90$, Gm p/e was around 4$…etc.
You may have earned much more from Nvidia , I also bought around 400$ and sell around 800$.
No one is predictor. And as an investor I am buying shares as low risk such as Google,Gm, ..etc. A stock should have low downside potential and have upside potential for future. Think about the game theory and the boys trying to convince the girl(in the movie of beautiful mind) all the boys have lost. It is same thing if everybody is buying Nvidia I am out. Zero sum game
Very unfounded comparisons. People watching this please learn Nvidia’s products. That’s the answer not comparison to Ciscos stupid cables
Compare P/E ratio with other peers (AMD, ARM,Avago), relax and wait for next quarter result.
I really wanted to give you an ear after reading all of the commenters clowning on you. As soon as you said Metaverse had ANY hype, you lost me. Metaverse was clowned on since day one.
How can I take you seriously if you actually took Metaverse seriously?
Parkev Tatevosian 80.6k subscribers 2.7 videos 👍
Assymetric Investing
15.1 k subscribers 937 videos 😂
Nvidia is not Tesla ! Jensen is not Elon !
I think this is a very fair concern about NVIDIA stock, especially with historic data backing up those predictions. It's absolutely incredibly how many people in the comments are willfully blind just because they're hearing something they don't want to hear.
@9:48c that chart doesn’t even make sense. Look at the legend. It’s set as if Nvidia has a cap.
I feel meta is software that is affected by bad hardware. Nvidia is hardware which can accelerate software performance.
Meta has risen because of their hardware for the last 3 years...
I agree with you . AI is a great thing but Market overestimate it right now.
This is a bad take. Seems like this guy lacks knowledge in engineering, machine learning, LLMs, GPUs, or Nvidia as a company in general. Maybe a reasonable, healthy pull-back here and there, but the stock experiencing 50% pull-back is unlikely, unless TSMC gets bombed by China or something. Yes, there are startups popping up, but none of them are trying to challenge nvidia, only to get a piece of the pie because of how many applications and opportunities there are in machine learning…
When the competition catches up with them... but that's years away 😕
The comparison to past dips in any hyper-growth stocks or prior NVDA share price dips is flawed. AI is a fundamental building block, in the same realm as the advent of the automobile, telephone, or Internet. AI is not an evolution of what exists, it is a new paradigm which renders such comparisons to past performance or previous market dips irrelevant in relation to future NVDA share price growth. The only way NVDA drops significantly is they fumble their sector leadership position, a la Intel. But I don't believe Jensen will make the Intel mistake of complacency and excessive hubris. A guy that starts as a Denny's busboy . . . tends to remember what it's like to be on the bottom rung of life.
Perfect examples.
The Model T was introduced in 1908 and over the next 20 years automobile manufacturing exploded. The auto industry then went through a massive crash in the 1930s and very few automakers would generate any value for investors over the next 90 years.
I showed the Cisco chart, a company that was growing at NVIDIA-like rates. It's the backbone of the modern internet, just like NVIDIA with AI. And it was one of the most valuable companies in the world in 1999...only to crash.
History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. And this time is no different.
@@asymmetricinvesting 1. If you give me 22 years before AI competitors cause NVDA to crash, I'll take that. 2. Cisco crashed in 2000 because of market speculation as it related to all things .com, excessive inventory, a general economic slowdown, and investor panic. So yes, Cisco crashed, but it wasn't only Cisco and it wasn't for a single reason.
Most people don't realize that the current ("primitive") AI isn't trained and developed on these new data centers yet. As a result, there are significant limitations in performance and costs. Once these new data centers are fully operational, we will witness the real Matrix in action. A new world completely dependant on NVIDIA products.
Just another opinion. Don’t mean jack lol
NVDA stock price will drop 50% to the destination point.
What Nvidia has done, no one has ever been doing in the last 100 years
Nvidia is projected to make 130 billion next year
I bet they make more
Great video and analysis, definitely food for thought.
I love videos like this! I mark them and keep them in a folder so I can come back in a year and see how these predictions hold up. I'm just an idiot retail investor but I fail to see how AI is the same as the metaverse or 3D printing. What do I know? Interesting time to invest. Thanks for the video.
I encourage you to do that.
This is a fun one to look back on. A lot of hate in the comments, but Tesla has underperformed since this video and revenue growth has gone negative and margins have collapsed. ua-cam.com/video/Pz0FUHHwIEY/v-deo.html
Have you observed the movement in Nvidia's stock this year?
Indeed, it's been remarkable. I've heard Desiree Ruth Hoffman foresaw this at the outset of the year.
The “pucker factor” is gonna be intense.
Not a convincing argument!
The difference is the revenue is real from Nvidia
What revenue? Less than 100bln a year for a 3tln company? Doesn't make much sense, Apple has 90+bln net margin with over 200bln revenue every year and is worth less than nvda
Maybe. Maybe not. But there are no alternatives... Yet... It will take years before the competition catches up. If you had to dig a trench, would you rather dig it up with a spoon instead of a shovel because it's cheaper? Both get the job done. NVDA will be fine until some serious competition arrives. Till then, enjoy the ride if you're already in it. I wouldn't be adding at these levels, though. Its valuation is definitely stretched. Also, comparing the AI sector to the auto sector doesn't makes sense. I can live without a car. I can't go back to living without Gen AI.
What happens when it turns out you dug too many trenches and the war was averted so the trenches are useless?
If you used a spoon, you wouldnt spend so much money on digging them. You'd also be left with a lot less useless trenches.
One thing I’ve learned is whenever you see the comments go negative, buy!
So if I want to sell, I just watch a positive YT video XD?
This guy is the perfect example of dunning Krueger
NVDA going to 1157 by Tuesday!
What you on about
It’s about 120
Thanks for video.. Investment awareness is critical..i bought some NVD because it was more affordable after split..but i didn't put all my eggs in that basket and i will be watching my hatchlings 🐣
If you bought one share when they announced the split. It would cost you 940. And today you would have 10 shares at $94 each
Nvidia is down 10.36% in the past week.... looks like this dudes on the correct path.
Good analysis. Keep us sane. Obviously, a lot of comments below didn't come from serious research. Typical shoe-shine boy story moment now.
At the same time, I would ask the author, would you trim now? btw, I have a large long position in this stock.
Today is Oct 23. Have yet to see the 50% drop.
“Will drop 50%”…my friend, you should be a billionaire already with this incredible capacity to foresee stock prices😄.
High pe , any problems with there chips will crash the stock , government regulations , this guy is on target .
Great points
Lets see what will happen in 6 months…. Lol
It'll be up $500 a share
If iy drops 50 percent that just means its time to buy more Nvidia 🚀🚀🚀
Don’t listen to this guy
This video should’ve come out a year from now
I blame people like this for the sudden dips. People see your video and Get scared. Enough of your negativity and fear tactics.
sounds like you''re coming from a place of emotion
Don't compare history in stock market. Never do that.
seasonality is a fairly reliable indicator
This guy is the greatest joke on Earth. NVIDIA is now $141 overnight trading.
Where can you see night trading? I can’t on yahoo finance app
And is at 132 right now.... Let's see in 12 months time what happens, it's overvalued, you wanna see it or not
@@ernestogarcia9154 NVDA stock price will drop 50% to the destination point.
Soon as you mentioned motley fool I turned off
Tarra
We have enough GPU. we don't need extra power.
In 10 years maybe but not now.
You are trying hard to short