Why Taiwanese Aren’t Making Babies
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- Опубліковано 9 бер 2021
- Previously I did a video about Singapore's attempts to maintain their native population through the use of pro-natal financial incentives and policies. I also covered China's population control policies coming up to its momentous One Child Policy. Today we are going to look at Taiwan’s situation and their own low fertility issues.
Ultra low natural fertility is a challenge that each of the developed Asian economies are struggling with. Why is this happening? What policies can governments enact to reverse this trend? What is it saying about people’s preferences?
Note: After publishing this video, I was sent Chinese statistics that showed that the 16.8% of married couples still lived with their parents. Thanks to Discord member "the screenshots" for digging up this information.
Chapters:
1:24 - Taiwan's Fertility Decline
3:22 - Shifting Tones
6:59 - The Importance of Marriage and Rising Singlehood
8:40 - Other Causes for Ultra-low Fertility
11:52 - What Can Be Done?
Links:
- The Asianometry Newsletter: asianometry.com
- Patreon: / asianometry
Thumbnail photo credit: Joe Cheng flic.kr/p/3ZMUo
here in Brazil fertility rates are getting lower by the day. We already have rates lower than the US. People always argue that tax cuts for couples with children and maternity leave would help but that is not true. Even though maternity leave should be a right, the fact of the matter is that western European nations, in general, have many benefits for parents, and still aren't able of significantly raise their fertility rates, while the US, where there is no maternity leave has a higher birthrate.
Cheap houses, job stability, and money on peoples pockets is what stimulate birth rates. People don't usually thinks on terms as in "if I get married i will get tax cuts" or "if I have more time with my baby when he is born I will have more babies".
It is a sensation of security, stability and prosperity that give people hope towards the future, and make them wish to have a family.
Us birth rate is just from immigrants
The US is screwed too, all the parents are now millennials. A fate worse than demographic collapse one may suppose.
More criminals and crime certainly doesnt help
why any material goods be "a right'? A privilege like that imposes an obligation upon others. A right is a protection against government abuse, not some privilege of access.
You'll see a sharp decline in birth and marriage as some new family jurisprudence takes place.
1. Subjective "psychological violence": Your partner can accuse you of violence based in their feelings.
2. Socio-paternity: a judge can make you pay child support to you partner's children even when they get child support from their biological father or mother.
3. When dating someone you may have to split your savings with your ex if the judge thinks you had the "intention to marry".
All these will weight up in people's decision to have a relationship.
You'll see:
1. record low marriage rate,
2. record low birth rate.
3. record rise in single motherhood
Decades later you'll see the socio-economic consequences.
Unaffordable house prices and exhausting overworks are root causes to low birth rate in Taiwan, yet every government is either incapable or unwilling to solve it. Corporations have been lobbying government and congress to against any changes on house pricing or work hour for a long time. And they will keep doing so even if they know the result would backlash against themselves eventually.
Doubt there will be a backlash, if the number of young people drop corporations just push for mass immigration. That's what they've done in the west
@@1funnygame And nothing wrong with mass immigration: that's just FREEDOM, freedom to move where one wants, FREE MARKET CAPITALISM/ANARCHY, exactly like conservatives CLAIM they want in their ENDLESS religious political dogma.
I've not checked for Taiwan, but all the established political parties in Hong Kong under the Brits, and nearly all under China, are not only property owners, they are landlords living off rents. The entire Democratic Party under Martin Lee was solicitors who made all their money from conveyancing property in addition to their own rental properties. It' nearly the same in Singapore, so I'd guess Taiwan isn't far off, so they only promote family growth when they can't find another way to inflate property prices. In HK and Singapore this is mostly by selling to extra-nationals (and mainland Chinese for HK) to keep putting money into elite pockets.
@@theultimatereductionist7592 I haven't heard conservatives promote open borders, but I guess it depends on which country your talking about. People understand that importing foreign labour would boost the gdp, but I don't know of anyone on the right who promotes it anymore.
True that
Japan is often talked about having low fertility but it much higher than some of its neighbors although it’s still low 🤔
Yeah but japan are largest ageing population on earth, about 28% are 65 and older. Thats bcause japan are first low birth rate in asia, so the effect is now. So japan actually are very danger situation in world
@@yogadarmawan3051 no tyey are not. Japan is doing great compared to most European countries
The birth rate is higher in Japan because housewives are more common there. It is impossible to raise children when both parents work >40hrs a week, not including overtime.
@@bigsmall246 the future is grimmer for Japan .
Because it was the first. They had it from 90s but others not much
They say that if you don’t feel your childhood was happy, you tend not to have strong intentions to have a child of your own.
I think it makes some sense. Who’d want to burden your own child with mostly negative tasks?
I had a great childhood. The reason am not planning on having kids has more to do with adulthood than childhood.
Since poor countiries have more children I would say it is quite the opposite of what you suggest, unless you would say that children in poor countries have better childhoods.
@@AnonyMous-gt8vq she's not saying it's always the case. Nobody can give a reason that's applicable to everybody. She is correct in some sense.
@@AnonyMous-gt8vq In poorer countries, children become free farm labor by the age of 6, so there is a huge financial incentive to have them. Also, they become the only form of pension insurance. Once a country becomes wealthy, children no longer become that financial incentive. People instead put their money in stock markets, real estate, and other investments.
Poor countries also have societal pressure and they live in tight communities instead of as a free individual.
The answer is the same in many areas in Asia. High financial burdens (it costs a LOT of money to raise a child), high housing prices/mortgage obligations AND at the same time young people want to enjoy themselves, travel/holidays/entertainment etc. which can be hard to combine with a child.
impossible not hard!!!
No, the stats say otherwise. Even wealthy couples are having just one or no babies. The primary reason is because women are given more options other than motherhood in the modern area. When given a choice of career, higher education, or just loving life babies are the last thing on their mind during their short fertile years. And once the few whondevide on children once they get their loves together realize that it's now too late or way too expensive or risky. By age 30 the average female has only 10% of her eggs left.
The answer is to stop offing the babies in the womb.
@@earlysda or let nature take its course like god intended
@@rolanddiazmay6772 no the reason is that babies are financial blackholes and no one other than poor people have the time for that shit
I think you definitely made an interesting point towards the end of the video. There has been a big philosophical shift in society since we started transitioning into democracy: "family values" have begun to break down, and there has been more focus on individuality. Getting married, having children, and starting a family just... isn't a priority anymore.
It's true that birth outside the context of marriage is rare in Taiwan. That means marriage and child birth usually come as a "combo bundle" haha, which is a lot of responsibly for my generation, especially when the focus for most of us is to become financially independent from our families. (Again, shift in societal values)
So affordable child care and lowering housing prices might help to some extent, but I'm sure this decrease in birth rate will continue if my government does not see the undercurrent pushing this trend. Anyways good video. :)
You would be ignorant to think they don't understand this fully. It's the elephant in the room. Extremely hard to not see.
They drink too much soy milk
Today, having a plant is like yesterday's having a pet, having a pet is like having a child, and having a child is like owning an exotic animal.
Thog don't carre
💯
plant? naaah just have a virtual plant or pet. more convenient to take care of.
Well, there are a couple of things that are usually not known outside of Taiwan:
1) There is a society pressure for the women to get married by 30 year old. When girls get about 29 year old, they would literally hunt for a husband and if necessary get married within 6 months of meeting him. Usually there are two key requirements: first the boy must have a car, second the boy must own a place to live. Otherwise the bride's parents would not agree with the wedding.
2) Traditionally, after wedding, the bride would 'belong' to the husband family. Only going back to her own family very few times a year. Not getting along with the mother in law leads to a terrible life. Nowadays, this is a bit less true in north Taiwan but still a real fact in the south.
3) In most cases, the boy's parents put pressure on the couple to get a baby within the first year of marriage. There is also a society pressure as not having a baby within 1 or 2 years often mean that there is a problem.
4) The Taiwanese law is actually made in a way that it is impossible to have a kid outside of a marriage. For example, the father (not husband) would not be recognized as the father in the official documents and would have to adopt his own child in order to have any legal power. There is nothing like being recognized as the 'legal representative' of the child if the father is not married to the mother.
5) House prices are insane and most young couples end up living with the boy's parents. If the couple is not working in the same city, they often end up renting tiny flats that doesn't allow kids. In some extreme cases, the children are given to the grand-parents but this is only doable if they are already retired.
6) In Taipei, an acceptable apartment with 2 bedrooms easily cost more than 1 million USD and rents are well above 1,000 USD/month. Larger units with 3 or 4 bedrooms more than double this cost. Most workers salary won't even cover the rent cost, so having 2 kids is not even an option.
7) Child care is expensive and government help is ridiculous. It is not uncommon for parents to pay about a thousand USD in kindergarten fees per month. Public kindergarten are still fairly expensive and there are waiting list with lucky draw. For context. ~1,000 USD is equivalent to a full basic salary.
8) Parents often work long hours. It is not required by the law (mandatory usually about 40~45 hours /week) but it is rather a society pressure to stay long hours at work to make the manager happy (they usually end up playing cellphone). Because of this, most of the kids would have to go to private evening schools that are also very expensive, adding to the total cost.
9) Add on top of all this that quite often the parents also have to financially help the grand-parents and it is simply not viable to have children in Taiwan.
Ps. I have 2 young kids in Taiwan so I can confirm that it is insanely expensive and there are very few local jobs that can pay well enough. For an independent couple living in Taipei, I would say that having two kids easily require 70,000+ usd per year to be financially acceptable.
Also, I would say that most of the young Taiwanese simply don't know how to take care kids and the only way they can make kids 'busy' is to send them to lots of activities (piano, weekend schools, ...). This is also an additional cost. I do not say this in a negative way, it is simply something that I see every day while going to the park and chatting with locals. It is quite often by ignorance as they do not have much examples to follow, it is not by laziness.
This is literally what's happening in Korea too. I suppose similar culture and development timeline leads to similar outcomes. Also, this low interest rate environment doesn't help with high home prices.
I like your answers. Very thorough.
Thank you for the detailed comment! Gained a lot of insights into the current situations in Taiwan
As a Taiwanese, I am puzzled by what you described. They are just very strange statements.
thank you, i had no idea about all of this
Wow Jon. Study and observation brings wisdom. Thank you for the insights! Your comment about young adults feeling uncertain about their ability to afford life, and that it is a reality in many countries really lines up with what I see my sons going through TODAY.
Thank you again for delving into aspects of culture. Similar outcomes in many countries despite differences in governmental policy and even ideology! We all have some study and observation to do if we’re to solve our brewing difficulties of social ‘secureness’.
One thing that should be mentioned:
It is often claimed that wealth leads to lower birth rates. That is actually not true. In old industrial nations, you will see birth rates increase during economic boom cycles and decrease during recessions.
Industrialization goes along with URBANIZATION which turns children from "free labor force" to "noisy, dirty mobile furniture" in your cramped apartment.
The key is cheap living space. Offer cheap living space to families.
They drink too much soy milk
if your country has a culture that accepts working children living with their parents, they can still be beneficial to have in sharing the payment of bills for the same house or supporting the parents' retirement and old age
It's hard to have kids if you can't afford it and there's no good reasons to have it.
That's like current western thinking, in the east if you don't have childern you haven't achieved.
They drink too much soy milk
All developed countries have low birth rates. Most population growth comes from immigration in those developed countries that are still growing.
Yes something's wrong with our whole ideology probably.
@@ThexXxXxOLOxXxXx - Not ideology. Choice. Prosperity, education and contraception. Populations might decline for a while but they will stabilise at a lower level.
@@TenOrbital Population decline isn't this a problem bigger than anything? what if the next generation thinks the same?
@@ThexXxXxOLOxXxXx - Why is it a problem? The planet is overpopulated.
@@TenOrbital I disagree over 95% of earth's landmass's unpopulated
Great video.
The solution is hard as the people, their government and business needs to work very hard together to resolve this huge problem. People can't afford children at the moment. All governments are unwilling to implement anything that is unpopular in the slightest. And business is only concerned about money. The result is a disaster.
Even in NYC i'm surprised anyone has kids here
- public schools suck, private schools $60k/yr
- apts expensive and small
- daycare/nanny expensive (often unreliable)
- all above requires either 2 working parents or a high paying job in finance
- however, at least one parent needs to focus on kids to make sure they do well on studies & extracurriculars - all this takes time to participate in and coordinate logistics
A lot of this sounds like first world problems because they are. But its also symptomatic of the feelings of insecurity and notion that overall pie is getting smaller...and this feeling is quite prevalent in Asia too
just keep defending the banks... its helping... p1g
Lol there's nothing wrong with public schools.... vast majority of people go to public schools and end up okay...
@@yoleeisbored Good Public schools depends on so many different factors. The number of textbooks, computers, and other teaching tools paid for by government funding. Lack of funding means old outdated textbooks, no computers, and even dangerously dilapidated buildings. The amount of effort teachers put in to teaching their subject. The behavior of the other students. Bad students can disrupt classes and take teachers time away from good students, can bully kids to suicide, and peer pressure other kids to drugs and other risky behaviors.
Maybe the reason for the low birth rate in developed Asia is simply because people have higher expectations of what life should be, both for themselves and their children. If they know that it is not possible to meet those expectations, they won’t have children. For e.g., I grew up having to share my bedroom with my brother. I love him, but looking back, I would have preferred to have had my own bedroom. I made a mental note to myself that my kids would get their own bedroom - which, thankfully, I was able to provide.
In the long term, if Asia’s population gradually declines to say, half of what it is now- is this such a bad thing? Less people means less pollution, more nature, less competition for scarce resources, more space for the individual. Doesn’t sound so bad to me.
Spot on I never thought of that living in Hong Kong I have noticed after you mentioned it all the friend’s I know really do have more kids if the house is bigger and the ones who live in flats only have 1.
I’m sure it’s worse in TW because the pay is so bad there
I'm in Singapore & that reminds me of a news article about a mother of 3 young children who faced challenges taking public transport e.g. prams had to be folded before boarding a bus, (until 2017). In response my father said it was irresponsible for that mother to have that many children if she couldn't afford a car (which are heavily taxed here), perhaps exemplifying some of the more conservative attitudes present in the region
No, its because empowered women do not want babies.
Well elderly is a money sponge and Gov have to go through inflation to feed them which will make its economy collapse if they can't tax the shrinking young gen
One country have go through 60 years of such after that the country already shrunk economy will not beneficial for the young to have child and the cycle keep on.
The problems are an overaged population that is in need of special treatment or care.
Death of culture.
With the old generations dying alot of information and traditions will be lost.
And the last one is territorial conflict/war. A shrinking population cannot produce enough capable soldiers to hold up its territorial claims.
Cultures that produce more children will grow, conquer and impose their values on you (and that's a huge problem)
I love the shoebox reference. I lived in an apartment in Zurich that we called the shoebox lol
How much did you pay for month ?
My rent in Campinas, Brazil is 900 euros
Apartament, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 2 garage slot (120 m²)
It's a nice place
This is great, always excited to see more good content on this under discussed and fascinating topic. Do you feel like there’s also a sense of of general pessimism towards the future-above and beyond economics-that might be contributing to this? People worried about environmental issues, disillusioned with their governments, and so on? Antinatalism?
I studied in Taiwan for a year during the 90s. I am still friends with several people that I met there. Several of them that I know are now in their 40s and 50s and childless. Even some of the married ones never had children.
That’s very sad
Whenever I get into a topic on YT -- in this case I started out watching a video about the Chinese 3-child policy -- I seem to end up at one of your videos which haven't disappointed me yet. You hit an many points that are brushed aside in other discussions, including a mention of the alternative to birth rate boosting: immigration. It seems ironic that one the one hand politicians never tire of bemoaning climate change and energy consumption and extolling global sustainability, yet on the other hand they cannot internalize the fact that a global population decrease is in order. Without major wars, without a raging pandemic to shave off population in more than a modest rounding error, what needs to be considered is the allocation of people over the face of the planet. Where there are jobs and no people, somewhere on the other side of the globe there are people with no jobs! Sadly, we have not come up with a way to solve the inherent coexistence of cultural pride as a necessary ingredient to a successful nation-state. And this issue becomes most dominant in a democracy where the voice of the people, who will inevitably see their own cultural stock diminished by the import of foreigners, tends to be getting louder and stronger in its opposition to "open borders". The inherent problem with open borders is that you don't necessarily get the quality of populace that is necessary to maintain or even improve your society. An influx of criminals are never a boon to any nation state. What should be explored in the case of Taiwan is the potential to repatriate the children of it's mid-20th century expatriates. There is a limited window of time to do so, however, as the "first generation" of Taiwanese Americans, for example, who still have a favorable and strong connection to their nation of ethnic origin, are rapidly heading toward the later days of their child-bearing years. Boosting the number of dual US-Taiwanese citizens also has the potential to influence geo-politics favorably for Taiwan, as presently the US committment to Taiwan's security is not so much a reflection of love for Taiwan but fear of China. If and when China implodes, that would very quickly see the return of Jimmy Carter style attitudes about Taiwan as a bump on the road to a global grand vision of happy days with best-friend China. The only thing that stopped that from happening back in 1979, other than Barry Goldwater, was the strong lobby of ethnic Chinese who held out hope for Taiwan as the foil for communist China.
"What should be explored in the case of Taiwan is the potential to repatriate the children of it's mid-20th century expatriates."
"There is a limited window of time to do so, however, as the "first generation" of Taiwanese Americans, for example, who still have a favorable and strong connection to their nation of ethnic origin,"
These are inherently race-based thoughts, not good dude.
I agree with your sentiment. Who said that 10 bln is an optimal population for Earth? why not 4 bln? or that it's supposed to be forever growing. I wish more people were looking at it more in terms of a sensible 'global distribution' of people.
In Taiwan we are too poor to afford kid's expenditure because the salary is too little to buy house
@JJ 88 少生优生 "Fewer and better birth" has been the motto of many Chinese for years.
@JJ 88 lack of education and women's rights. Though in india some states are below replacement level and many are going that way so what you said is factually wrong (most aren't having 1 child, but 2-3 children but that's still pretty low. Almost everyone in my parents generation had at least 4 siblings, it is way lower nowadays)
@JJ 88 True but the houses are too expensive to buy. You can translate my words as below
台灣的房子實在是太貴了 而且薪水又低 所以現代人沒有能力去養小孩 所以結婚率就持續下降了
不是每個人都那麼富有的
@JJ 88 也是 不過我說的是大部分人這樣的想法 因為我也是這種想法 房都買不起了幹嘛養小孩
沒有要去比較其他國家的東西 只是講在台灣發生的現象而已
@JJ 88 they generally don't have access to birth control since they are so poor, nor have education about family planning. In less developed places people may think, that they should get children in order to have a more comfortable life when they get older, however in more developed countries that isn't usually the case since the state will take care of the old people or people can just hire someone to take care of them.
Really nice video
Maybe I wasn't paying attention, but I don't think you covered affordable daycares and making it easier for women to resume their career after childbirth or child care. These are major issues being discussed in Japan today.
I did mention it as an issue but not any actions taken to fix it. Yeah it’s an issue
@Your brain has a mind of it's own at times can't do that. The mom has to work to pay for daycare. Chicken and egg problem
Day/child care has increased a lot in Singapore too, now ~S$1000 monthly/child, while ~20 years ago it was more like ~$250, though I think there are some government schemes present to help defray some costs. Milk powder is also expensive here (S$50-80/tin) to the extent that the government had setup a task force to look into the matter
Thats a bad solution since Daycare is a cost per child, meaning that it favors only having 1 child. The only way to incentivize more children is to have one parent stay at home.
@Datguy Yes, you are so right, the government wants kids, so it should create them in artificial wombs. WAFM.
The comments provide plenty of additional context and reasons. I would expand on one extra aspect:
In the past a child was raised by a whole community (grandparents, relatives + high acceptance of unsupervised children playing on their own).
Having the father split the responsibilities with the mother equally (given that both are employed) + good affordable childcare (+ bring back the help from the grand parents) would transform the cost benefit equation of having children for many people. I can tell you this would incentivise me more than any tax cut or financial transfer.
Thanks for a great video. You got a new subscriber. :=)
There are some improvements, like all the playgrounds that were built in the last decades, or the children hospitals. But yes, if you need more than 3m NT just for a flat, then that's rather discouraging. And when your boss wants you to be at the company from eight to eight, then you're pretty much burned out and don't care much about playgrounds...
People are worried about over population in the world and then worried about low fertility rate. You got to make up your mind which worry you want to have and then stick to it. You can't have both.
Fertility is not uniform around the world. You can worry about the massive population growth in sub-Saharan Africa stretching such countries to their limits and creating fertile ground for future violent extremists while also being worried about the ability for developed countries to maintain their populations.
1. Just about all countries in world have birthrates trending down. But E. Asia is leader with Euro zone providing tough competition.
2. If you look at birth rate vs. time plots, Japan was leader in low birth rate by decades. Japan provides some kind of leading indicator and has low immigration (like Taiwan).
3. Singapore, Hong Kong are crazy low. These are countries where economic competition is tough and housing expensive.
4. This is new territory, first time in history and Europe and US have very high cost per retiree (medical, pension)
I project that 100 years from now there will be 100 Taiwanese left,, with two in child-bearing age, paying 1 trillion trillion trillion dollars for house, supporting 98 elders and producing one child.
In that scenario, at least Taiwanese will be the richest people in the world!
@@Asianometry ha ha but their daughter can't find a husband has to move ; - )
Singapore has a lot of public housing (housing 85% of the population, & ~1/4 to 1/2 the cost of private housing), so housing cost is probably a smaller issue here than elsewhere. Economic competition might be a bigger issue I guess, with many of my fresh grad friends often working late at night, which I don't think will be sustainable once we have children. I also recall our prime minister had been more dismissive towards work-life balance also, by saying that immigrants from less developed countries were less demanding
Demographics is a problem in many countries, increasingly even developing countries. Even countries we consider "have a relatively high fertility" amongst developed nations, like France or the US and Sweden, are well bellow replacement level and would be even lower without immigration. Without immigration since 1965 even the US population would have started to decrease by now.
Are rich countries really rich, if the people there are suffering from lonelyness and don't see fit to have children and family?
yeah - if said rich countries don't actually consider their peoples' well-being a priority.
Not really, what they have is the most of the few richest people on the world. When Bezos and Musk live in your country and then some, it sure skews the averages. America has abhorrent poverty. Poverty shouldn't exist since people should be capable of getting their needs met, but we have system with sets of rules that bar people from fulfilling themselves and enabkes a few to concentrate most of the resources. They even cheat people out of their time and effort with the illusion that money has value to aquire material things or better experiences.
Very apt observation. I’d say that the most bankrupt a nation can become is to give in to cultural malaise and embrace a nihilistic, anti child, anti human mindset
Why cant governments be happy if the global population growth starts to slow down?
The more the quality of life improves the more expensive it is to raise a family. In the old times a family might need more children as working force for the fields etc. These days are gone for developed enough countries.
I agree.
Ummm... it would not be an issue if these countries did not have welfare programs. These countries need future workers to support the whole welfare infrastructure such as free healthcare, social security, free food programs, programs for single mothers, etc. Someone needs to pay for these programs.
Its about power and money. Political leaders, corporations, capitalists, etc heavily rely on an ever growing population. They need fresh consumers, voters, canon fodder, etc to keep them in power. Also a large population is easier to control since humans as a large group are irrational.
@@steffimaier7297 I totally agree.
A fertility rate of 1 makes interesting math, the population is cut in half in every generation, if the trend continues you can divide the current population size by 16 in 100 years. Extinction is looming
Germany fert rate 1.3
And we fail to assimilate foreigners into our culture.
@@dave_sic1365 is it really surprising ?
A pious culture will not accept a whorish one
Or an tight knit save a dime Asian culture will not accept a consumer debt individualistic one.
Its a pot the best flavor dominates.
100 years is less than 4 generations, rounding each one by 30 years. But indeed, global population will plummet. We'll only see rise in the poorest of nations with material conditions close to early or mid 20th century global average. Basically Africa going through what China and India went during that time. If economic growth is quicker and they reach middle income in less than 30 years, they'll decline too, by mid to late 21st century.
But longevity increases might extend numbers, and inevitable development of several technologies, including life extension might throw a wrench in those projections, because even low fertility nations might yet increase because death rates are negligible.
Extinction is looming for Europeans.
I have researched this for years and the biggest reason is because women are educated and choose work over babies. Everything else is extra.
Exactly. The key issue is the shifting of women's value. Men are born to endure hardship. No matter how expensive the houses are, no matter how much overwork they have to do, he can do it to support his family. Not to support a strong independent feminist with attitude, but a family.
No, it isn't that. It’s because raising children is a thankless, not respected and not valued activity. But I have a sneaky suspicion that if more men engaged in it, it would quickly become much more noble, respected, perhaps even included in the GPD and other economic metrics.
Personally, having a partner who will equally share the burden (time, attention, sleepless nights) with me is vastly more encouraging than any government subsidy.
If you're nostalgic about the past - in the past a whole community was engaged in bringing up a child. Nowadays, raising a small child is the most lonely, isolating time in people’s lives. Change that - by providing affordable childcare / community solutions / bring back the grandparents, and it will transform the cost-benefit calculation of having children.
Instead of studying the topic for years on reddit, you could get a fresh perspective by talking to women in your life, if there are any.
@@piernikowyloodek you think men care? Lol they’re saying they should take away education and jobs from women so you could rely and be controlled by your husband to breed babies
No it is because women are too protected
In the past, people got married despite of low income.
I think it's people just being responsible.
If you have limited means, then why have more than one child?
The population of the country will start to drop.
@@creatoruser736 And what about that? If you belive it's your duty to stop population dropping have six babies and prepare yourself and your children for a life of misery.
@@chubbygardener Weird how you say 6 like that's the only option. There's several numbers below that.
@@creatoruser736 you'll be a national hero. So if you're so worried about the whole country population you should do a lot.
@JJ 88 Funny how you think "population decline" and "ridiculous overpopulation" are the only two options and there's no middle ground.
Also a huge issue here in Germany. To me as a native citizen it seems that we rapidly promote the immigration of uneducated people just to do low paying jobs but it seems that a large percentage of these people doesn't want to work these jobs and rather become criminal or even violent. If you look at the numbers for Germany and the whole EU for that matter it seems like our governments fail to integrate these people into society and rather separate them in refugee camps all over where violence gets out of control.
This is getting to the point where many of my friends and even I consider to leave the country for better alternatives like Canada or the US. That not only doesn't help birthrates it actually even slows them down further. Who want's to raise a child when you have to worry that it gets beaten on the way to school or stabbed by an African immigrant...
Sadly that isn't a fictional state in some parts of my beautiful motherland these days...
Move to Pennsylvania USA. Wonderful place to live, lots of children being born
If you're talking about population decline fears in East Asia and how to fix them, you should do a video on the challenges of immigration in the region. You touched on it in Singapore but it can be applied beyond them. Countries more open to immigration, like the U.S. (now lol) and Canada, don't have to worry about declining birth rates as much because there's new people coming in. But there's a lot more pushback against that in East Asian countries because of their societal and cultural feelings on it, especially against people from outside the region.
There’s a more in-depth video coming up about immigration in Singapore that I’m kinda concerned will tick off a lot of people. Still weighing on releasing it or not.
US fertility rate is very good in conservative areas.... And no immigration isn't the solution because you can't get tailor made 25 years old for your society because people come from different backgrounds, it isn't a sustainable solution at all.... The regions which receive large number of immigrants aren't doing well in coexisting.
Let the US be composed of nearly 40% foreigners and see how much pushback you'll get. That's the situation in Singapore. These problems are hard!
@@Asianometry It is a tricky area. Ethnic majorities want to remain ethnic majorities. The Han Chinese majority in Singapore wants to remain a majority. Malays have much higher birth rates than Indian and Chinese. The Singapore govt has actually said that the current ethnic mix (Chinese 75%; Malay 15 %; Indian 10%) works for them, and they don’t want to change it. That is why it has encouraged immigration from China, and to a lesser extent, India. Look at the ethnic breakdown development in 1970-2020 in Malaysia, and you’ll know what I’m driving at. Imagine the U.S. govt in 1980 saying that they wanted to keep the Untied States majority white. It would be unthinkable. Yet if you probe most white Americans, I think you will find most would want to remain the overwhelming majority.
@@arminius6506 How the hell would you know how places with immigrants are "coexisting?" It's not like the country is going to collapse from having immigration. It doesn't cause any problem that can't be overcome. And it doesn't matter the fertility rate in "conservative areas" when the rate for the nation as a whole isn't high. It doesn't matter peoples' backgrounds, they adjust just fine.
Cohabitating with grandparents and other relatives can be advantageous.
I think the bigger issue isn't the shrinking of the population but the actual aging which will eventually lead to more taxes
Yeah if there is no immigration policy for new blood to feed the old.It also have its own problem.
I agree with 99% of what is said here but think a few things can be added 1) the segment of the population with far and away the highest birth rate is non-Chinese origin Taiwanese (Aborigines and immigrants). Both small % of the population at a total of about 5% but FAR more for births. Also I suspect the out of marriage birth rate is higher among Aborigines just from people I know although I have no statics on it. 2) kindergarten place numbers are still woefully inadequate even with the low number of kids. This forces parents into using private ones where the average cost of each child going is about half of a low wage. Two kids and that is all of a salary gone... places are determined by lottery although sometimes preferable treatment for certain groups like single parents or immigrant mothers. To me the biggest underlying cause is simple. Cost of housing. Most Taiwanese won’t have kids without owning a home. Solve that and the crisis will at least largely solve itself.
@JJ 88 No. The property rules are REALLY crazy. Like LOTS of buildings here are illegal. Lots of land that could be residential isn't. Also you can build upwards and most importantly Taiwan has a HUGE number of empty homes that are owned by speculators. I think in the long run it is headed the way of Japan's property market (down) but this can't happen fast enough if you ask me even though I own a house here.
I keep hearing about this empty homes and speculators data, but I can't find a reliable source. Just anecdotes. Do you have one?
@@Asianometry I am sorry not specifically but I remember I have seen Chinese language news reports about it often enough. I have one personal example of a friend who lived in an apartment building near the art gallery in Kaohsiung. It is a VERY expensive building. Yet it is largely empty as are most of the buildings near it. This can easily be seen at night by way of lack of lights. I don't have specific stats on it but it was REALLY obvious. By the way I am not really disagreeing with anything you said in this video, just a few extra things that I thought are often forgotten but are worthy of consideration.
Being in a developed nation is not the issue. In any developed nation there are always small sector communities that have 3 or more children per household. What they all have in common is they are patriarchal, families are encouraged, lots of children are considered a blessing, and females are taken out of education by 12 or 13. Also the females are forbidden from working outside the home. With that said these women are the happiest polled compared to modern independent women. Aside from Taiwan aborigines, there are also the orthodox jews and amish in America.
@@rolanddiazmay6772 Don't tell them the truth they'll destroy you xD
you often mention other videos that you have made, but then don't provide links for them in the notes. Why is that?
We are overworked and overtaxed. Longer education also means that we think about starting families later except that cuts down amount of time we can devote to children . Let's be honest - very few have energy to care for multiple children of any age after 50, let alone be able to afford it.
When Japan went into an economic downturn the marriage rates went up. Maybe it isn't about money. There is a deeper problem. When people are poor are they are likely to rely on eachother and live together would't this increase marriage rates. I think society is more risk adverse because people have been brought up without war or death. Many peoples parents saw death, war and starvation so they have less fear of having children because death is more common than creating life. So they may not fear having children.
Life was harsh. Plagues killed mamy people, starvation was common. And survival for most relied on farming, with null education barrier of entry. Child labor was seen as natural, women seen as chattel traded for bolts of silk etc etc
People that romanticize all that are simply insane. East Asia is at its best and yet there's a lot of ground to cover, development to happen, technologies to be created.
@@user-yj5yu4pc2f People have a high standard of living people are not going to have children whilst living on the street. Back in the day it was like that. However maybe people have gone to the extreme and are too risk adverse.
"When people are poor are they are likely to rely on eachother and live together"
Not in Confucius-influenced cultures. In general people look inwards when they are doing tough because the assumption is that if you fail/suffering, there's something wrong with you. It's only when there are public movements about an issue, some people may join in once they're at the end of their ropes but many similarly will suffer in silence. This may be more suitable on the video about Mental Illness Stigma but to illustrate the point: a friend who lost his adult brother to COVID went to see a psychologist after his death, but when she suggested it to her mother she said, "I am not too weak to need that."
Also, your statement is a very simplistic view of poverty. I'll attribute that to your wanting to limit your comments.
@@julesverneinoz Well if poverty is widespread people won't feel ashamed and suffer in silence. A lot of people don't decide to get married or have kids because they feel they lack money and can't provide a good and secure life for their child however this standard of good and secure in modern day society is very high compared to 100 years ago. So having a little lack means more to people now than end. But back in the day many people died for many and unknown reasons. So it would be hard to feel your inadequate in having a child since the standard isn't so high.
@@2DarkHorizon The dynamics of poverty is slightly more complex than that. I grew up poor (almost ghetto-living poor), I got lucky and went to a good university (not the best) in a developed country, had difficulty finding a job being a migrant then got lucky again and now I am 'adequate'. I never had affinity to children though I am fairly good at caring for them and for a non-mother I knew a whole lot about the science around child development and psychology.
In my country poor people often have more kids, because the government pays them $5000 for each child. In contrast, many extremely well-off married couple I knew never intended to have kids because, just like me, they just never had any interest in having one. Most of them had either dogs or cats though :)
Your theory of 'back in the day' can also be viewed with how, since the mortality rate was so high back then that people felt compelled to keep producing the 'next generation'. When things are extremely grim, children often brings the feeling of hope. Nowadays, despite many governments' push for more children, the populace that lives in the day-to-day life can feel how that push don't make sense when you put into account the realities of poor employment prospects, soaring housing prices, resources, etc. Why don't I have kids? I don't feel compelled and the world definitely don't need it. There was a short period of time when I thought about what it would be like, which I chalked up to a bout of narcissism.
It is true that when poverty is widespread, there's a sense of solidarity, as I mentioned. However in most cases currently in Asian countries, poverty is not widespread and since there's an expectation in the Asian society for an individual to keep up with the people around them then people won't outwardly show that they are poor. The majority will keep up appearances at all costs to keep 'face'. This charade keeps perpetuating with everyone unknowingly working together to hide issues and difficulties.
Lower population would decrease the demand for housing, and reduce the supply of workforce. This means housing becomes more affordable and larger, and presumably salaries grow (I haven't yet watched your "Why Are Taiwan Salaries So Low?" video).
So yes, governments want infinitely large population, economists want large and predictable economic growth, but for the normal people at some point the population density becomes large enough and more people lead to worse quality of life.
As a point of reference, in my country (Bulgaria) we get 2 years of maternity or paternity leave, the first payed at about 80% of regular salary, while the job is being protected. I'm married but don't plan on having any children, ever. Meanwhile my sister has 2 sons. So maternity leave helps a lot, but for some people no measures are ever going to be enough.
@JJ 88 It is, yet our fertility rate is still higher than all countries mentioned in the video :D
It only helps with housing if all people don't still want to move to the same place, usually the capital city.
@@FOLIPE If everyone wants to move to the same place and you have large population growth you are in a worse position than if everyone wants to move to the same place and the population is falling.
13:35 Am reminded that Singapore's 2013 Population White Paper was controversial as it was planning for a population of up to 7m, so people feared overcrowding. The opposition political party proposed a 6m population instead but our prime minister dismissed that as 'irresponsible'. Meanwhile I also saw some one write in the newspaper: "Is the Singaporean life supposed to be easy?" Can't fathom comments like this being politically survivable in, say, Taiwan/ROC
housing isnt more affordable with population stagnation/decline....the families that leveraged their properties well in the 1980s 1990s and skipped through the 2000s....just keep buying up quality stock...i had friends who had 15 properties to choose from when they wanted to move...and another that had a large 6 story house to herself which her father gave each of his kids...i taught a developer's children...their portfolio was to max profit...so they sold lux...not affordable...nothing under 15 million in the 2010s was them. the only reasonable housing was in the new military/civilian complexes....they bought them cheap and we could rent cheap.
Im Asian descent and married but I'm not having a kid probably ever. There are enough Wongs, Chans or Lees around the world so I am sure someone in China did my family duty for me and than some. I think in the end of the day, tradition no longer mean so much and most people generally prefer to be individualistic if they have the means to do so. The previous generation didn't have many activities that allows them to thrive so they have kids. Compare to our generation, there are just more things to explore so it's not sensible to bring a life to the world without maxing out own own life first. It's almost like selling yourself short these days to have children. A similar thing is also happening in Canada due to the housing crisis except it probably been going on for much earlier. Most of my friends are not having kids because they'd rather rent for life and have nice things instead of having baggage so this phenomenon is not culturally exclusive. We probably just starting to notice it in Asia the became developed later so they just discovered there are more to do than having kids like a few generations ago.
Personally I just enjoy traveling and having nice vehicles over kids. I see no reason to be make freeloader and compromise our way of life for it. Most if not all of my relatives in HK that have kids seem depressed af. They are always paying through the nose and no matter how much they make, they are living in a TV box since they'd have to share regardless of apartment size. I don't think any these developed Asian countries are all that concerned about the aging demographics or are unwilling to invest into it even if they are. A government could persuade a good portion of those who are on the fence to have kids just by providing affordable or free housing. Once the economic factor is removed, there isn't much real reason for people to not have kids unless they have other life long dedications or extremely time consuming hobbies.
Despite not wanting a kid myself, I would give it some consideration if a family could get a sizable subsidy for their first home purchase base on number of children in the family. And this is coming from a person who doesn't like children so...
At the end of the day the people who think like you will simply go extinct.
You actually save money if you have a partner. If people has their own apartment wouldn't that be more expensive. You are not seeing it more a close system. If there is 5 jobs and 10 people 10 apartments wouldn't it be more saving money if they paired up one with a job and one unemployed sharing one apartment leaving the others empty. Your viewpoint assumes everyone has a job and can get their own apartment.
@@2DarkHorizon my wife and I live together. Im just saying kids are expensive and are a financial liability and burden. Having to share my space and wealth with one person is enough. Kids also require living space so we would need a bigger dwelling but have the same pay. It really doesn't make sense to me to have kids if people can't fulfill their own lives yet. It's giving up on their life and investing in another hoping for better results with even less resources than before.
@@kaibotski4939 The whole situation doesn't make sense there is enough housing. I believe the population will continue to drop even when there are empty houses because housing may not be the problem. Maybe because a few people own most of the houses which pushes up the prices or because people are challenged by something else. And I don't think it is about people haven't lived their life yet. Because people can travel cheaply now a day and experience more. It is more socially acceptable to have multiple partners throughout your life. So people are definitely getting to live it up much more than the old days. What they might be missing out on is a career though.
It's a tough issue to take on and do well.
No more taxes if you have 3-4 kids. Done. I’ve solved the fertility crisis.
If they lack the means to mass-produce babies locally they should think about importing the necessary components from outside or improve trade-relations with major baby manufacturers. In these globalized times a relatively small island nation such as Taiwan clearly cannot be self-sufficient in all industries.
😂
Peter Zeihan explains it by 80 yrs ago most of the worlds population was on farms, children were free labor so there were lots of kids. today most of the worlds population live in cities, here kids are expensive mobile furniture so there are fewer kids.
I very much like your comment that politicians and economists are out of step with the will of the population. I believe that , in democracies , women have voted overwhelmingly , with their bodies, to have low , even negative population growth. This is the sustainable situation. While corporate traditional economists only see population as inputs to production they will try immigration and birthrate policies.. against the will of the people.
Far better our leaders and thinkers should be developing ideas like prosperity WITHOUT growth. Under these ideas low birthrates and a high quality sustainable environment become the norm.
We MUST find an economic arrangement that supports sustainability and low population. The current thinking denies both.
Why is a falling birth rate a problem? We should be applauding and trying to emulate east-Asian countries in bringing human population back towards a level the Earth might eventually be able to support, and not treating it as some issue. There is no such thing as sustainable growth when it comes to anything that is physically real. The world is finite.
All these Asian countries like Singapore, Taiwan, korea, Hong Kong and Japan are NOT willing to do enough to reverse the low birth rates.
The Scandinavian countries are doing a great job reversing the low birth rates and their policies SHOULD be emulated!
A low birth rate is an indication the economy has not been doing well. I am always glad to see people having kids in Taiwan.
Taiwan is a funny place. The government admits the birth rate is too low but says the economy is doing well and more and more people are voting for the DPP ruling party and yet you see less and less people going to vote on election day. They're stuffing so many ballots in the boxes that they forgot there needs to be people to voting to justify that many ballots.
It's a universal existential problem . In many countries. For the world. I'm not worried because I cannot do anything about it, and will be dead when the problem will be greater than any other e.g. climate change.
fascinating video, are the sources for your resource available on patreon?
A decreasing population in any country should be seen as a positive trend in an overpopulated world. Less environmental pollution, more resources and wealth available per person. With the advent of AI, many repetitive, simple tasks can be done by robots, leaving humans to enjoy more leisure. Mass immigration is not absolutely necessary to address labor shortages. I see only positives.
"1.202 births per woman
The current fertility rate for Taiwan in 2021 is , a 1.52% increase from 2020. The fertility rate for Taiwan in 2020 was 1.184 births per woman, a 1.46% increase from 2019. The fertility rate for Taiwan in 2019 was 1.167 births per woman, a 1.48% increase from 2018.
"
It's simple - increased costs of living, stagnant economy, less opportunities, inability to mix with other cultures particularly ethnic minority groups in Taiwan as well as with foreigners.
The data does not support that. Talk to a person who studied how to curb overpopulation or lessen a climate impact and they will tell you that by educating young girls the population will plummet in one generation. Women with options choose work over children.
@@siu-longleejune748 which is totally understandable. Who wants to spend their entire lives doing household chores? Not many
@@dipanjanghosal1662 You must be living in a third world country. Where I live the women rely on dishwashing machines, roombas, electric washer and dryers and so forth which would not take the entire day.
@@siu-longleejune748 even if lives are easier for housewives in first world countries, women will still prefer the autonomy that not having children grants them. Plus tution fees for children is huge in most first world countries. Having children is a huge expensive responsibility with significant timesink. Most of the people would simply rather not and its completely understandable.
@@dipanjanghosal1662 That is true but people need babies to become future workers to pay taxes especially if the country has a huge social welfare programs, usually regarding healthcare and housing. Like in India the the Hindu and Christian population is declining, but the muslims are out reproducing everyone. So, India one day will be a muslim country. The same for the rest of Europe.
Why the obsessive focus on falling fertility rates in East Asia and Singapore? EVERY EU nation other than France now has fertility rates below replacement levels, and steadily falling. France is an exception because average fertility rates among their large Muslim minority remain above reolaceme by levels. Greece, Italy (arguable the most child oriented EU nation by tradition), Portugal, and Spain have seen some of the fastest drops in fertility rates anywhere in the world within the past few decades.
Nations with average fertility rates above replacement levels usually have medium to high rates of infant mortality as a factor affecting their long term population trends.
Here in the US, fertility rates have now fallen below replacement levels, and the same is true for the UK. Perhaps more importantly, average life expectancy in both the UK and the US is now falling, while it continues to slowly improve in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Macau, which along with the tiny ultrawealthy principality of Monaco, now have the longest average life expectancies AND some of the lowest infant mortality rates in the world. Have you compared their infant mortality rates and rates of obesity with those in the US and UK?
Taiwan is not faring as well as their fully developed East Asian neighbors in both average life expectancy and infant mortality rates. Meanwhile, a recent study cited by Reuters indicates that China's young generation can expect to rival Macau SAR, Singapore, and even Hong Kong SAR in average life expectancy.
Why the focus in Asia? because it is in the channel name. Also, countries in Asia are advanced in the phenomenon as they experienced it before countries from other regions caught up. Looking into Asia might give insight of what is to come for the rest of the world and perhaps lessons learned can help the rest of the world in anticipation to cross certain bridges.
@@melelconquistador This video focuses on Taiwan, yet Taiwan's fertility rate issues and their laggard health indices are rarely mentioned by our Western MSM. Instead, our MSM either reiterates relentless propaganda cliches about "China's demographic crisis" which have been as desperately adopted and repeated on social media as Logan Paul's fiction about Japan's supposedly world leading suicide rate. I can barely find articles about South, East, or SE Asia in our MSM that AREN'T desperately defensive, filled with schadenfreude, and "obsessively focused" on real and imagined problems In Asian nations. Meanwhile, we are reassured annually that Finland is "the happiest nation in the world", even though their suicide rate is barely behind Japan's (a Finnish comedian joked that Finland is "the happiest nation in the world" because all of the unhappy Finns kill themselves).
To set things in context, Asian nations have widely varying fertility rates, but these are presented as either catastrophically falling (South Korea, Japan, China, Taiwan, Singapore) or nightmarishly out of control (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, etc.) Meanwhile, EVERY European nation except France has fertility rates now below replacement levels and still falling fast. Fertility rates in former Soviet Bloc nations imploded after the collapse of the USSR and rates of suicide, homicide, and domestic violence skyrocketed during the same period. Russia and Lithuania consistently have the highest suicide rates in the world (South Korea is usually #3), with other former Soviet Bloc nations right behind. When have you read about the demographic catastrophe that resulted from the collapse of the Soviet Union in our MSM?
Do a bit of research (it will require many fewer keytaps than were required for your post), and review some actual tabulated recent data on fertility rates by nation. See for yourself how fertility rates have plunged among developed nations worldwide. Yet I don't hear or read about "the UK's demographic crisis", or "Germany's demographic crisis", ONLY about Japan's, South Korea's China's, Taiwan's, and Singapore's "demographic crises". Have you sern the self aggrandizing simplistic cliches rehashed here on this comment board such as "if you were unhappy as a child, you are less likely to want to have children as an adult", even though Haiti, and a long list of nations destabilized or destroyed by our State Department and CIA still have fertility rates far above replacement levels? Are you aware that contrary to widespread belief, India's fertility rate has steadily fallen, and is now expected to drop to replacement levels by the middle of this century, if not earlier?
I'm not Asian, and I'm from the US. I grew up largely in Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore during the 1950s and 1960s, and even Japan is now almost unrecognizable from my childhood, while Hong Kong, and Singapore (both of which NEVER had any semblance of democracy under colonial rule) are now light years ahead of what they were during my childhood and adolescence.
UA-cam will remove my comment if I post links to data on fertility rates AND fertility trends by nation.
Taiwan and Singapore don't exist in a vacuum; they are important players in a global economy, and China is the #1 trade partner of both (Taiwan is now economically dependent on trade with China, even though they did NO direct trade during the 1970s and 1980s, and only began direct trade in 2008!)
@@melelconquistadorReread this: EVERY EU nation other than France now has fertility rates below replacement levels, and steadily falling. France is an exception because average fertility rates among their large Muslim minority remain above reolaceme by levels. Greece, Italy (arguable the most child oriented EU nation by tradition), Portugal, and Spain have seen some of the fastest drops in fertility rates anywhere in the world within the past few decades.
To repeat, fertility rates fell FASTER in Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece during this century than in East Asian nations and Singapore. So Asia is NOT the leader in this trend.
FORTY sovereign nations now have lower fertility rates than China. Most are NOT in East or SE Asia. Funny how I don't read about their "demographic crises" in our MSM. Taiwan does not exist in a vacuum, as you acknowledged, and Asianometry has done videos about non Asian nations such as New Zealand.
As if this video is describing any country from Eastern/Central Europe or as you said in your video "a global issue" and if I may add "in the countries with developed economy". Corporations does not like to employ women, which show indication that they might go pregnant soon. It is immoral. Worst still, those does not want to employ womens with children aged below 7-8, as those are more likely to get ill. This is because of the allowance to take parental sick leave, so that you can take care of you ill child. It is so complicated to be a parent. To all man/husbands: take you equal share of the household work, as two people working 1 hour each is better than one person doing it all alone.
For the reasons for low birth rate, there's also probably some environmental cause (air pollution? industrial contamination of the water supplies? ...) to that leading to couples having difficulty conceive a child. I know of lot of couple unsuccessful in having a child by natural means. Most end up using medical help which is pretty expensive in Taiwan.
Every nation wants to grow its real GDP. They need it to pay for modern people living well beyond their economically productive age, to keep young people willing to work and pay taxes, and to not lose power to other nations. The planet unfortunately is being degraded and has progressively less to offer. So the math doesn't add up when all countries want a growing population, higher per capita consumption, and long retirements. This combination of expectations, reflected in policy goals, is simply unrealistic. Now, who is going to tell the voters?
People want their cake and eat it too, the policy makers know all of this but they don't care. Everyone from the leaders down to bum on the street has decided that it's everyman for himself and that's not good for society, eventually the house of cards will begin to collapse
It's also the fact that people don't want to have as many children as they used to. Most couples in America want two, three max. Even if a married couple are millionaires that can afford an expensive house and university tuition most aren't going to have seven kids.
I think men and women have higher standards of living. Back in the day people didn't mind getting married and still living in their parents house and having babies. These days we need to have house, car, stable job and investments to feel safe enough to have a baby. Why is housing a problem? Don't children inherit their family house in Asian countries or everyone is renting.
I don't think your view that the state and people not aligned in their goals doesn't really make sense. The state wants people to be productive and wealthy, so do the people.
Just look at what happened to Japan, which was the one of the first countries to have such low sustained birth rates. What was once thought to be the next global superpower is now stuck in decades of stagnation with an extremely aged society and bleak future.
The only issue is that raising a child is a positive externality (barring overpopulation and very high rates already i.e. already 2+). The parents have to bare the cost of raising a kid, but they're literally sowing the seeds of the future and all of society benefits from the kids' contributions to society later.
The answer is dark and looking right at you. If a "certain" half of the population exited the work force and raised children; what effect would it have on salaries? Would baby sitters be needed? Would governments need to offer paid leave? Who is ultimately paying for these services? This is why every government policy fails and they turn to opening their borders which is a short term solution.
That's a problem of democracy making short term kick the can solution.
The high house prices and cost of raising a child would make that much harder.
coffee doesnt always cost the same
Its the same every where... even in india educated, non muslim youths are preferring to stay single or not having children due to huge money needed for raising children health education etc which cannot be afforded, and if they spent that much money on children the parents will be broken having no money for their old age, and children do not take care of their parents these days like older generations did early... so having children is a bad investment economically and psychologically..
Yes I talked to an old employee he said with his old income he could raise 7 childs as he really did doing a garment job.bearly of course.
Nowadays you need to spend so many things on child to even be considered normal is unrealistic.
They just haven't figured out the process of making babies yet. But they'll send 12 people with bachelor's and master's degrees overseas to learn from the leading manufacturers.
With AI and automation it might not be a problem with low natural children birth rates as industry, military..... use it. Like most things you can’t have everything at the same time.
Automaton is not a fix-all issue.
Wealth in our society is distributed based on how much a person works;if all the jobs are worked by ai then wealth redistribution is impossible
@@ihavenojawandimustscream4681 The #1 method of a person getting very rich in the US is inheritance. Our system resembles feudalism in that sense.
@@deadby15 the 1# method of a person getting his daily bread is via working.
It does not matter *how* the upper class(bourgeoisie,feudal lords,patricians) earn their crumbs,what truly matters is whether the rest of us *has* crumbs in the first place,otherwise you will get a revolution
@@ihavenojawandimustscream4681 you will make a good feudal serf.
@@deadby15 we are all good feudal serf,thats why we're not part of the 1%.
South Korea birth rate is 0.84 in 2020
Sad.
Singapore also hit its historical low in 2020.
@@90taetaeya Malays as a proportion of Singapore's population might increase over time as their birth rate is highest among the main ethnic groups here (with a TFR of close to 2, as opposed to a TFR close to 1 among the Chinese)
This is happening all over and the world was overpopulated in the 1950’s.
Fertility rates of a country is directly proportional to the average educational of women.
Yup
Never thought Confucian can be pronounced as ConFUUcian.
That's actually closer to its pronunciation in Chinese
In the uk the poor whom dont work and less inteligent have many children the more wealthy who work have about 2.4 children .i had one child quality over quantity
In order for people want to marry and have kids we need the same reasons that made them want to marry and have kids before.
How do we bring back the reasons?... I don't know! But I know it will be clearer when we have crisis it may derive.
The solution to this problem will only become clear when things get really worse. This can take more than one generation as we need to learn from the consequences.
Today we'll just be "outsourcing the blame", arguing and giving faux reasons to no kids. We'll be making excuses time and time again.
In the future it will be clear for the ones who really need marriage and babies. They'll stop with the excuses.
I tell you: It will take a series of many types of crisis, like social, economical, mental health for people then say: Ah, let's stop making excuses or else...
The individual roles will be more clear. The excuses we make today will seem nonsense in the future.
We removed the reasons people used to marry and have kids. Now you either bring the reasons back or we need new ones.
I have to confess: I'm not friends with the idea of having no child but I like that many people are having less kids nowadays.
From young people point of view, making babies means need to spend more money and effort to educate the children. On the other hand, making new babies means young people need to sacrifice their freedom to bear kids. Even the Malays in Malaysia are reluctant to make more babies due to bad economy growth and new individualistic mindset.
Kindly make a video on how to establish a Fab foundry.. equipments required ..cost estimation.. machine cost one by one .. complete guide for a lithography fab..what kinda human Power required...
I've already made one for Early Access Patrons. It will be released in the coming weeks.
Ask yourself this question. How many babies are being BORN TODAY and for every each day for every young man and young man woman so that by the time these young man and woman are already old and are going to retire these babies, by that time, will be fully matured and educated and highly skilled so that there will be a sufficient number of young working men and women to replace them and to pay the taxes needed to provide the revenues needed to sustain the social security checks and pension checks and medicare funding-budget and etc?
WHO WANTS TO BRING A BABY INTO THIS MAD WORLD !!!?!?!?
Must have more babies for our dear leaders. Oh, you don't want more babies dear leader? Must have no babies for our dear leaders. Oh, you want more babies? must..
Have they tried outlawing women getting wages from work?
LMAO 🤣
i lived there for 12 years....life is good and fairly relaxing...being independent is a treasure....but the expectations of marriage? sorry u got symbolically sold off and now u must naturally care for ur new family...aka bye bye ur independence. happens a lot....and boys are almost never blamed.
kindergarten? if lucky, u have family to help. if not, 10k minimum gone every month....car, house, saving, food, clothes, etc, all ur free time...why have the stress?
elementary? time suck, and bushiban costs double.
women are the backbone of taiwanese society and when they stand up and put their foot down drawing a line on their expectations....they are viewed like having some sort of propensity for something like seedy ktv life.
lots of great men and women in taiwan, but family can suck
What if the tigers made a monetary union
Our population is 7.9 billion anyways. So low birth rates may be better in the long run
4 billion might be sustainable. 8 billion is not.
@@alanjenkins1508 the problem is the population doesn't stop falling, if you were the only child, you will most likely have 1 or 0 kids. The mentality continues with each successive generation and then boom, extinction
The returns on chips are better . . . .
Give them money to have more kids.
It works every time.
People like money.
Ok. How much?
@@Asianometry Paid leave an enough to help them feed their kids, day care, health and medicine.
People NEED money.
@@Asianometry Enough to cover costs minus benefits what a child brings. For everyone this number will be different.
It is good thing we don't rush too many kiddos too quickly. Resources are already overexploited. Meanwhile we are getting robbed by monetary system as we speak. As of now it is only getting worse except in few fast growing industries like IT :)
It’s TW not Hong Kong or Singapore it’s government is not rich
A lot of countries aren't, really. The US, Latin America, Africa, India, and Eastern Europe are having babies, pretty much all of Asia, Russia, Canada and Western Europe stopped breeding, and are slowly going extinct. On the farm children are free labor, provide a lot of work, and are security for the future, in a big city they're very expensive, require a lot of work, and take up the finite amount of space that exists.
Tl;DR:
They dont know how.
Unfortunately it a global problem in developed countries! Overpopulation is horrible lie.
Maybe education leads to better decision making. Better to have no kids than to share your life with an unpleasant partner.
The Asian countries are really embracing 'No child left behind.' 🤣
10:31
"Making" babies? Not having babies? The factories they have in Taiwan, amazing!
Modern educated industrialised societies are almost doomed by their own success.
A natural unforced decline is good in the long run. One of the reasons why things gotten so expensive and crappy is because there are too many people competing. And instead of putting so much attention and finances in pronatal stuff, it would be better (at that point) to use that time and finances to create (more) automation and robots.
Taiwan is an overpopulated country. No matter what causes the declination on its population/birth rate, it's a good sign for Taiwan in the long run.
Could just ask, why aren’t East Asians in general aren’t having babies
If you want a society to fail get the women to leave the home for the office. Everywhere this happens the society slowly dies.
their response: it's good if the society dies less people is better 😂 they far gone bro.
Japan pays 52% of the costs of raising a child? What a laugh!
With their situation they should pay all 100% and then some
Indian : hold my beer
Africa:amateur