⚾ MLB Best Bets, Picks, & Predictions for Today, April 22nd!
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- Опубліковано 16 тра 2024
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Timecodes:
0:00 - Intro
2:09 - Weekend Recap
4:48 - Good Hitter Matchups
5:28 - Aces of Bases
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11:16 - Best Bets
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⚾️ Bet#4: Tarik Skubal (Tigers) Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-130 on ESPN Bet) *1 Unit... This is 1 of the props I was waiting to come out and was hoping for 17.5 to be the number. Skubal is a stud and very efficient pitcher. He has gone over this in 3 of 4 starts. Last start, he gave up 5 hits, K'd 6 and still onpy threw 86 pitches in 6.1 Innings vs a very good Rangers lineup. He now faces a Rays lineup that has been average at best this season. They are 18th in WRC+ vs LHP, 20th in Walk Rate, 7th Highest K-Rate. I expect Skubal to have hid typical 6+ Innings giving up around 1 ER. Nestor Cortes just went 7 Inn vs this Rays team. I think 1 of the best, most efficient pitchers in the league can go 6 for the 4th time in 5 starts.
Fun Fact of the Day: If we *_Faded the Astros ML & Dodgers ML_* in every game this season we would be up *_+71% ROI_*
Most Profitable Teams To Back [ML]:
1. Brewers +42% ROI
2. Guardians +33% ROI
3. Nationals +28% ROI
4. Yankees +22% ROI
5. Cubs +18% ROI
Most Profitable Teams to Fade [ML]:
1. Astros +45% ROI
2. Twins +28% ROI
3. White Sox +28% ROI
4. Dodgers +26% ROI
5. Marlins +25% ROI
That's really interesting information useful to bettors. It supports my findings too. Thanks for sharing.
@@feldpauschp Thanks, I appreciate it. This is all that really matters from our point of view. Eventually both sides of the extremes will regress closer to 0% by the season end
Last year Braves won 64% of their Games but if we backed them in every game on the ML we would have ended up with *_0% ROI_*, this is usually where the Huge Public Favorites end up by the end of the season. So it's usually in our favor to find undervalued teams which are not popular with the Public like the Brewers and cash in while it's flying under the radar and fade Huge Public Favorites like Astros and Dodgers in certain spots while they are momentarily slumping, or just leave them alone entirely
Another good example from this season is the *_Royals vs. Astros_* where last season they were charging 2022 prices for the Astros. Royals were +150 dogs in 5/6 games vs. Astros and ended up winning 5-1
Same thing happened this year, Astros opened as Favorites in Game 1 and lost. Opened up as Bigger Favorites in Game 2 and lost. Opened up as even Bigger Favorites in Game 3 and lost
Royals are *_+128% ROI_* vs. Astros over the Last 2 seasons
If we back plus money in the right spots, we can end up with a 48% W/L record but "Positive ROI%" compared to someone with a 64% W/L record who breaks even
It takes a while for us to grasp this concept because it's "counter-intuitive." We typically perceive "Higher W/L%" as success because in most areas of life, it is, but in this game, things are inverted. Once we figure it out and truly understand this concept, we will rarely lay money @ -200 because we now have to win 2 in a row @ -200 in order to recoup the first loss @ -200
Best of luck for today 💰
That National one & the Dodgers + Astros ones look quite appealing going to have to pick some good spots to get some of that money off of them 3 in particular. Also I do expect the Brews to win this series against currently cold bats having Pirates
Great info my man!! Thanks for sharing with everyone since we are all in this together! Keep it up.... Wild to think how much the Dodgers have been struggling this season so far. I thought my Future Bet I gave out for their Under Win Total would be a sweat, but maybe not. Good luck today!
@@TYRONE-kh9znTotally agree. Have to keep rocking with the +130 Dog on a 4 Game Win Streak vs. the -150 Favorite on a 6 Game Losing Streak. There really is no other option. Going with the momentum until the ball stops rolling is better than trying to swim against the ocean current. I'm splitting 1 unit on this game. 1/2 Brewers ML @ +130 and 1/2 Brewers -1.5 RL @ +200. If they both hit = +165% ROI and if the ML hits and RL misses = +15% ROI. Fingers crossed
Best of luck tonight 💰
Hit schwarber Hr with Phillies run line +450 last night. Oddly hit Adolis Garcia earlier in the week on a Hr play. My O’s are hitting big. Plus money line with Henderson hit. Were underdogs last two games and won. Big travel night so they may be down. Suarez pitched well last outing but figure it was unfamiliarity. May not do so well today. Two bets. First O’s moneyline and under 8.5. Suarez pitched well last outing but small sample size. Detmars has pitched well with a lot of k’s. O’s travel will have them wore out plus crazy games in KC. 2nd bet O’s Run line, Mountcastle to hit and 6 Detmars Ks. Mountcastle hits Detmars well. As I said O’s did alot of travel and their bodies wont adjust to what would be on off hour west coast game. O’s can tend to strikeout alot when off. They will win but not a blowout.
Love it and nice hit on the Schwarber/Phillies bet! Yep, those young O's are heating up for sure! Great lineup and very deep. Good luck today!
Good research & info today!! Def liking the SD game - hoping to make a little 3 leg banger!! Good luck to everyone!
Can't wait to see 👀👀
Wyndham saved my betting this week I mean I bet 5 bucks at 6 to 1 odds so won 35 bucks but smh I hate getting good wins on small stakes I need 10 to 1 or 12 to 1 odds but with great picks so can't wait to see what I can produce with my smarts an yours together lol I'll prob be a lifer with ya man so we will get to know each other for sure I'm just a small town single dad so I do this for fun spend 20 bucks a week an usually turn out alright sometimes I don't but I limit myself so it never gets outta hand but love ur channel sorry for the earful
Thanks, good luck with the 3 legger today! Let's have a good Monday!
Hit a bet at +985 odds turned 3 dollars into 31 lol crazy but then of course went an lost it buuuut I had Wyndham Clark finishing top 5 in the RBC heritage and it's almost over an he's still sitting pretty up at T3 so I might only get some of my winnings but that's gambling money for today so lets win ppl 🎉🎉
An it was all MLB picks so baseball is good to me let's hope it keeps giving
Where do you give out your weekend bets?
They are in 3 places.... 1) Under the "Community" Tab on our UA-cam main page.... 2) Twitter.... & 3) On our Discord, which is completely free. This is where they are posted 1st with Write-Ups. Link is in the Description. Hope that helps. Good luck!
Braves orioles padres nugs hurricanes stars
Jabo
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Lost all weekend. 0-21 only played 3 parlays everything else was straight up.. im done for the week already
Unit management brother. I know it’s cliche and boring but half unit, quarter unit especially when in cold streak. Bankroll survival is the name of the game
@@chrisparish9679 That's precisely why i'm done for the week not trying to chase them losses
Just give up brother
Ouch sir sorry to hear that
Ahhh, that's what I get for placing all my bets friday and going out to the mountains all weekend :) should just left it alone
Absolutley hate losing first bet of the day, sucks
I agree! Its the worst
Gotta be Kiding me pirates, NRFI was like -190, almost took the yrfi
Wow I rarely have ever seen a -190?? That seems strange. Great read minus the 1 freakin swing by old man McCutchen. 🤦
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You like Yankees ML
Sorry I am too late on this, but man the Yanks look brutal today. Day games can be weird
@@JustABetOutside you good brotha. Lookin scary right now😅
@@lewy5612 Big time! Glad I stayed away. I actually liked Sears Under 4.5 K's with his 10% K-Rate, but he is all of a sudden dealing and already at 7! Wild stuff.
In what world does the padres score 1 v gomber, mlb is getting ridiculous
Hahahhahaha I cash out they score 2 runs wow I AM fcking CURSED!
I was shocked too! They luckily got me the Run line cover still but 3 runs was ugly for them
@@JustABetOutside my dumb ass cashed out right before they scored the 2
Have a free $50 bet need two picks to parlay
Bruins and nuggets
Yankees ML , SOTO HIT
Nuggets and Phillies