May I say, Professor, that you wield Excel like an artist with his brush...to paint a masterpiece. The other 99.9% of analysts use Excel like a crutch to hobble along in their jobs. Thank you!
Just for the records, here Prof. Damodaran assigns a fair value of 200$ and 800$ to Apple and Amazon. In September 2018, they were around 220$ and 2000k. They will both tumble with the end-2018's downturn to 150$ and 1400$ and they will rebound to 220$ and 1800$ one year after this valuation (September 2019). I'm not even considering 2020 because of the disruption of COVID. Prof. Damodaran, it would be very instructive to know what is the fair value you reiterated for September 2019 and which assumption changed, to know if something major changed or you were considering them both still overvalued by roughly the same amount. Thank you for your great explanations: I find extreme value in these old valuations without the "bias of the present"!
Opening a short position in Apple at $230 was a good call. I believe it peaked at $232 at the beginning of October and have had a massive decline after the Chinese iPhone ban.
Sir, I admire you, but you are inconsistent in this case: You say that there has to be a catalyst for establishing a short position and you find it in regulatory issues, but those issues have not yet been activated. Plus look at the amazon chart, the stock is carrying the market and has a huge momentum. You will probably lose money on this trade.
The distributions are empirically incorrect as they’re both right skewed, not to mention that the assumptions aren’t realistic and that model error isn’t discussed. This is most likely due to the fact that the professor has no personal exposure to these stocks and probably isn’t a statistician.
AMZN trading at $1500 today. 23% in one month. Nice short, professor!
May I say, Professor, that you wield Excel like an artist with his brush...to paint a masterpiece. The other 99.9% of analysts use Excel like a crutch to hobble along in their jobs. Thank you!
Just for the records, here Prof. Damodaran assigns a fair value of 200$ and 800$ to Apple and Amazon. In September 2018, they were around 220$ and 2000k. They will both tumble with the end-2018's downturn to 150$ and 1400$ and they will rebound to 220$ and 1800$ one year after this valuation (September 2019). I'm not even considering 2020 because of the disruption of COVID. Prof. Damodaran, it would be very instructive to know what is the fair value you reiterated for September 2019 and which assumption changed, to know if something major changed or you were considering them both still overvalued by roughly the same amount. Thank you for your great explanations: I find extreme value in these old valuations without the "bias of the present"!
Perfect timing Professor! Amazon fell from 2061$ on 1st October to 1300$ on 12 December 2018.
Thanks for the detailed analysis. This is so far the best simulation I have seen for AMZN and APPL
Fascinating about selling Amazon short! How are you feeling about that position?
Ty for posting this professor. I appreciate you instructing this and wish us both good luck in our trades:)
Opening a short position in Apple at $230 was a good call. I believe it peaked at $232 at the beginning of October and have had a massive decline after the Chinese iPhone ban.
Brilliant video Professor! As always thanks so much , please keep sharing your knowledge with us!
Any comment on how to use these statistical data to come up with stop limits?
Professor,
Could you value Farfetch? Its NYSE IPO was yesterday and as usual there's a great deal of buzz regarding its valuation.
What kind of returns did you rake in with that Amazon short? Are you buying Apple again at $172?
20:34 it says Amazon is overvalued by 55.38% instead of 36%. Is this an error or am I overlooking something obvious?
5:20 Great suggestion.
Brilliant teacher
My hand would be sweating if I’m betting against amazon....
well done sir!
If Apple is overvalued, why isn't Buffett selling?
Because he's holding it for the very long run, this is what he's said.
Buffet didn’t buy the stock at the mid 220 he bought it before it was even $100 a share
Sir, I admire you, but you are inconsistent in this case:
You say that there has to be a catalyst for establishing a short position and you find it in regulatory issues, but those issues have not yet been activated. Plus look at the amazon chart, the stock is carrying the market and has a huge momentum.
You will probably lose money on this trade.
Gg you were saying? Lol
This nigga was so right
Shorting either of these companies is not a smart move
Vignesh Lakshminarayanan you were saying? Lol
The distributions are empirically incorrect as they’re both right skewed, not to mention that the assumptions aren’t realistic and that model error isn’t discussed. This is most likely due to the fact that the professor has no personal exposure to these stocks and probably isn’t a statistician.
So give us recommendations on books or videos to properly do this type of analysis, if you know the subject.