Wonderful analysis and valuation. A few thoughts .. Given the trajectory of personal transportation, evolving into autonomous driving in part or full, newer market segments, newer use cases and newer business models will evolve. Example logistics use case, subscription business models, enterprise clientele. The human driver-as-a-contractor model will likely be supplanted, which means a different cost structure altogether. Also, if we assume the autonomous ride sharing model adoption in the future, competition from car manufacturers like GM, Tesla, Waymo, Daimler will take a different turn in that they will offer their own fleet for ride sharing. Given substantial imminent variabilities in revenue, cost, competition, business models and margins, I’d be inclined introduce some optionality to the pricing/valuation of Lyft. Although, the S1 doesn’t go into the details of future product roadmaps and offerings, the valuation perhaps should have this delta call option price included..2c.
how did you come up with $ 120 B fro US Transportation market size ? I searched a lot but I couldn't find anything. Closest number I found was in "passenger transportation" section in Bloomberg Terminal which includes airlines, so we really don't want to count airlines in this market.
Personally I do not see this company being profitable for a very long time. The customer acquisition cost is too high, the drivers do not make enough, and they are banking on AVs to eliminate the labor cost. We are too far out, AVs aren't an established product.
Not sure how accurate it is to say "Owners are monetizing their underused cars". Unlike AirBnB, where all you have to do is hand someone the keys or otherwise grant access, you have to actually be there and drive the car.
Speculative at best. There will be too much money chasing this IPO. It is a highly anticipated one. And even the best company is not a good investment if you pay too high of a price.
irregularexpression i said speculative at best. I can allocate my capital to better opportunities I have found. Not many, but there are definately a few if you dig deep enough at the right place
Unsustainable business models designed to dominate markets for hope of future profits. I wonder what early pioneers of capitalism would say if they saw today's ride hailing start-up markets..
Wonderful analysis and valuation. A few thoughts ..
Given the trajectory of personal transportation, evolving into autonomous driving in part or full, newer market segments, newer use cases and newer business models will evolve. Example logistics use case, subscription business models, enterprise clientele. The human driver-as-a-contractor model will likely be supplanted, which means a different cost structure altogether. Also, if we assume the autonomous ride sharing model adoption in the future, competition from car manufacturers like GM, Tesla, Waymo, Daimler will take a different turn in that they will offer their own fleet for ride sharing. Given substantial imminent variabilities in revenue, cost, competition, business models and margins, I’d be inclined introduce some optionality to the pricing/valuation of Lyft. Although, the S1 doesn’t go into the details of future product roadmaps and offerings, the valuation perhaps should have this delta call option price included..2c.
very great analysis and valuation. thanks, Professor!
how did you come up with $ 120 B fro US Transportation market size ? I searched a lot but I couldn't find anything.
Closest number I found was in "passenger transportation" section in Bloomberg Terminal which includes airlines, so we really don't want to count airlines in this market.
In this environment of possible QT and no QE atm it seems fool hardy to go long growth companies like Uber and Lyft. What do you think?
Personally I do not see this company being profitable for a very long time. The customer acquisition cost is too high, the drivers do not make enough, and they are banking on AVs to eliminate the labor cost. We are too far out, AVs aren't an established product.
Not sure how accurate it is to say "Owners are monetizing their underused cars". Unlike AirBnB, where all you have to do is hand someone the keys or otherwise grant access, you have to actually be there and drive the car.
What do you think of Pinterest IPO?
LearnAlliCan what do you think of pinterest as a platform?
Speculative at best. There will be too much money chasing this IPO. It is a highly anticipated one. And even the best company is not a good investment if you pay too high of a price.
irregularexpression i said speculative at best. I can allocate my capital to better opportunities I have found. Not many, but there are definately a few if you dig deep enough at the right place
Unsustainable business models designed to dominate markets for hope of future profits.
I wonder what early pioneers of capitalism would say if they saw today's ride hailing start-up markets..