Is France Headed for a “Liz Truss” Moment?
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- Опубліковано 26 чер 2024
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Macron's snap election seems to have spooked the markets in France with the potential of a Le Pen or left-wing government raising the potential for increasingly expensive borrowing. So could France be hit by a "Liz Truss-style" economic spiral?
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1 - www.ft.com/content/378ab955-e...
2 - www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
3 - www.euronews.com/business/202...
4 - tradingeconomics.com/france/g...
5 - tradingeconomics.com/country-...
6 - www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
7 - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...
8 - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...
9 - www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles...
10 - www.euronews.com/business/202...
11 - www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
12 - www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/ar...
13 - www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
14 - www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
00:00 Introduction
01:36 France’s Debt Crisis
04:06 Why Markets Are Worried
07:33 Skillshare
A second Liz Truss has hit the European continent
Political sanity is under attack...
@@fanta-cool7532 "Political sanity"
Hahahshsahahahahahaha
@@fanta-cool7532sanity is handing you sovereignty away and allowing endless unskilled migration from the third world. You're right
@@fanta-cool7532 What sanity hahhaha, the system is in total crisis. The right is too pussy to leave the EU.
The liz truss scenario was different. The UK borrows in its own currency, so borrowing costs are set by the bank of england, not the market. France borrows in the Euro, so the market decides their borrowing costs
I like that Liz Truss' legacy is being synonymous with economic fuck ups.
To be fair, pretty much every UK PM since John Major has been an economic fuck up in some way or another.
I like how he said Liz Truss's budget "eventually" led to her resignation when she was only in office for _six weeks._
yea its not true though... good job on buying what they want you to believe though
if you want stupid, look at the rest of the western world leftsts whos hbeen destroying their countries for decades...
Less people voted for Liz than they did even the European Union (Which was none)
@greyghost
Crickets to this comment because it isnt pro left wing 😂 they only care about the agenda
"When France sneezes, Europe catches a cold"
-Klemens von Metternich, chancellor of the Austrian empire, sometime after the napoleonic wars
Never Say NEVER 😎 Justin Bieber
Bieber is a Canadian of German ancestry 💯
"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face"
- Michael Gerard Tyson, American boxer of African descent
“Wear mask next time will ya” - Rest of Europe
Now it;s the other way around, when Germany has a cold we are fucked.
That was with Germany, not France.
Damn its crazy that the uk has become so recognizable with the liz truss budget. 'Oh yeah that was the country which had a stupid economic policy'
The way you phrased this makes it sound like otherwise France wouldn't have heard of the UK :D
@@ActuallyJamesSbut it's kinda true though. Even in India we heard about that lettuce prime minister in UK with the dumbest economic policies lol.
And they still have it
Oh and a gullible citizen who believes that Liz Truss had a bad economic policy when in fact she was attacked by the economic system and kicked out because she did not put in place their plan...there are tons of videos explaining what happened
@@michaelmatisse2808 I am guessing that none of them are mainstream news. Truss tried to send untold amounts of wealth in the direction of her peers and friends, at the cost of the general tax payer. If she had really done nothing wrong, she would still be in power. I would look closely at my beliefs if I were you. Something doesn't harmonise.
Economic electoral blackmail is a wonderful turn of phrase and one I will be using.
Here in latin america this is a normal day.
You mean reality
Everything to just stop the rise of the right
It's one of the worst political tactics you could employ. Blackmailing the oposition with stepping down and paving a way for extreme parties, in order to hurt them. Cameron did this in the UK when he let BREXIT take over.
Why is this so bad? Because it assumes people will be rational and that they will give up their resistance for fear of lunging the country into chaos. But both of this assumptions are wrong. People are not rational and if they hate the government they won't back down even at the cost of the country. So it can backfire severely. Asad's way of dealing with protesters is superior measure to this.
That's right. I said this. Because sometimes people actually deserve to be roughed up a bit. Carrot doesn't always work. Stick is neccessary. More polititians should read Machiavelli and apply his teachings.
Is even ridiculous, in Italy nothing like that happened with Meloni.... It's only propaganda to scare people.
Laughing that my country (Italy) is always used as bad scenario comparison when necessary 😂
actuallly, it is quite sad
Italy and Greece are often mentioned when talking about bad economics in Europe but you don't often hear people say that they're bad countries to live in.
Hey Neighbor, Greek here 😂 you will never beat us to the bottom
@@jpaulc441 I live in Italy and unfortunately I can confirm that on average is not so good. We have very bad services.
@@RR-qj1ji lol :)
This title is legendary
Gotta love when being a politically neutral sources doesn't exclude you from making fun of politicians.
@@zachryder3150tldr news arent neutral. theyre left leaning.
@@zachryder3150 Not entirely accurate though. What happened in the UK is that the currency depreciated so rapidly it led markets to speculate it would force an independent UK central bank to raise rates to prevent cost of living crisis getting worse. The market didn't force the rates higher
@@grimaffiliations3671 Damn, that's crazy. But I don't remember asking.
Slava 🥖
When Portugal is the standard for bad debt costs xD
Communist legacy from the 1974 era ?
"Price controls to limit inflation" -- right, because that's literally *ever* worked...
When a comparison is made against Portuguese debt, you know things are very bad.
Ironically Portugal was one of few nations that had a budget surplus in the 2023 graph shown in the video.
As a Portuguese, I gasped when I heard that!
@@thecooletompie As a Portuguese, I can tell you that is the rare exception. Far from being the rule.
@@thecooletompie yeah our public services are falling apart, haven't had real pay raises in ages, and investment in infrastructure is really weak. The budget surplus or lowering of our debt are not something to be proud of in these conditions
Off course we have surplus (although after review apparently we didn’t idk) because we are still doing austerity like other eu countries and selling our country off for parts😂
If in the next decade we will be a glorified retirement home,unfortunately
all this drama just before the Paris Olympics makes it even crazier
Macron: It eez a marazon not ze sprint (dashing for the exit)
I love the fact that we now call a catastrophic sudden economic collapse/ miss menengment a " liz trus moment" lol
People are acting like this is Le Penn's fault when it's all money that was borrowed under Macron. . . this is like blaming the Obama administration for '08.
Obama was not in office when the markets fell in 2008, Bush was. Nobody with a semblance of sanity ever blamed Illinois’ junior U.S. senator for the initial crash.
Perhaps you meant it would be like blaming him for the aftermath of it 2009 onwards?
That is why Macron is a genius by calling snap elections right now. You either get left wing as allies, or expose the far right to the public. I hate Macron, but that was a genius move
I mean... it is pretty clearly Le Penn's fault. The markets think Macron will run a huge deficit, but they think the National Rally will run an even bigger deficit. A deficit that causes doubt in France's ability to pay its debt... which drives up borrowing costs before a single penny is spent. Just the mere possibility of the National Rally winning is making the economy worse. I don't see how this is not Le Penn's fault.
Markets are reactionary, as an example, it's something we're seeing in Australia right now. Our opposition party are somewhat up in the polls with an election coming up, and are basically declaring policy to rip up any renewals targets and subsidies for transition.
With future funding that had been promised now under serious threat of disappearing, businesses and investors now need to consider the likelihood of it happening and decide whether to cut their losses and contracts early before it becomes a huge burden later. At times like these, it can be the opposition party, not the party in power that causes pain, mostly as a destabilising force that markets absolutely hate.
... that all said, it's true that new governments should not be burdened by the pains caused by inherited policy. What's being insinuated here is not that France's economic pains are the opposition party's fault, but that the already existing problems of which there are many, may be made significantly worse because of the current popular opposition party's policy and rhetoric... you can also say Macron has booby trapped the economy, to make opposition policy all the more painful to implement.
@@RinoaRives your election is a year and a half away though? You are mid-term right now
The market is always very worried when the people want to get their money back
What an idiotic statement 😂
Nope. The market is always very worried when all the people want their investment back in hard cash, all at the same time based on a scare. There, I taught you your first education. Apply it.
@@tony16991 You're one of their good puppy. Hold your collar tightly, puppy. They taught you to obey very well
@@XR190190 Calm down dude, Jesus. He is right, just try to think about it rationally instead from emotion
4:04 Seriously? Reusing the same erroneous graphic from the last video? No Czechia does not neighbour Slovenia and it does not occupy the territory of Hungary. Please fire your proofreader and hire a better one. This keeps happening.
Well….. that’s debatable. I agree with you but that’s our western perspective.
That’s like saying “Romania doesn’t occupy any Hungarian lands” or “Ukraine doesn’t occupy any Hungarian lands”.
Yeahh sureeee…….. but that’s debatable.
When you are allowed to lease land and then never give it back & then get the “ok” from the west.
Well… it’s definitely debatable.
@@Concerned10thGenCanadian literally what are you talking about? I think you replied to the wrong comment.
4:04 There's a mistake here. The highlighted country is Hungary, but it should be the Czech Republic.
basically the same thing.
hungarian irredentism
I thought: Wait? Why did Czechia migrate so far south east. But you’re right, it’s Hungary, it even has the shape of Hungary.
TLDR be like: Werent Czechia and Slovenia next to each other? :D
close enough
What, is France’s central bank going to dump a bunch of bad economic news right before their budget is announced
You mean the European Central Bank? Not likely.
To be clear the bad news started being announced a few months ago. When the 2023 deficit ended up being higher than forecast. Macron's government was going to cut spending by 10-20 billion euros and the opposition was crying foul. The LR party was threatening to bring down the government over the budget, and that would have led to Macron calling for an election, so it happened only a few months early.
@@GeraldDeBelen the EU does seem to think it only needs to enforce its rules against governments it doesn’t like
@@goughrmp Examples? Genuinely curious
@@jelmervd2l France has always ignored EU rules but enforcement is only being talked about not that a party the EU doesn't like may have power. That's how it's been done in Eastern Europe for years with Poland and Hungary being examples
"There's one overriding fact. The entire financial system of the Western world is in private unelected unaccountable hands, the hands of people who meet in absolute secrecy. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) every four five six weeks has a meeting of the top governors of the banks, and they meet in absolute secrecy. And they have the big banking families and so forth, they all meet up. The 'minutes' are never made available and they decide on the money creation and the money supply of the world. But none of us are allowed to know anything about it." ~Justin Walker, 03/20/2023
Stop being antisemitic /s
> These meetings happen in total secrecy and we aren't allowed to know about them, but I somehow still know about them.
> Minutes aren't made available, but I know what's agreed upon there.
> Trust me, bro.
Implying that the financial system in non-western world is in public elected accountable hands. Anyway its crazy to see this comment under a video about the fact that policies thats are electorially popular can be devastating for the economy. Some people really have room temperature iq huh.
@@namelessguy199 Stop OI Veying, You trying to all the wealth for yourself doesnt exactly make you popular my Zionist friend.
“More than 2 Liz Truss mini-budgets”, so it is now officially a measurement.
Le penn verse a lettuce?
A THEY lettuce, at that!😅
Damn I hope she lasts as long as Liz when she passes
@fightwithdogma I hope she shakes it up takes France out of EU and NATO, joins BRICS, and gives the French Basques independence, whilst giving the Brits, Carlais, Aquitaine, and le Marche.
The penn pours the lettuce?
@@Sammyli99 that's called balkanisation and it basically fabricates the equivalent of the middle east but in France in terms of stability.
With this news we know why Macron chose to call an election
Make BAGUETTE Great Again 🥖
Obsolutely not, he had his people on the government but lately, his party got very unpopular, by calling an election he just removed his people from the government, people that are very unlikely to get elected.
We kind of already knew Macron's motivation. Historically, EU and National elections don't entirely align in either polling or results. Rather than allowing Le Penn's National Rally gain momentum off of their EU gains, he calls a snap election that (likely) follows historical precedent and takes most of the wind out of the Far Right's sails.
@untyprandom9740 except he had a cohesive plan on how to get votes via an alliance with parties willing to accept it, while it left his opponents with days to act and internal divisions flaring as some party leaders did panic declarations against the will of their own party members and got basically ousted for their troubles. His goal was to create chaos. He had a plan, while no one else would have one at the time.
@@mobiuscoreindustries sadly the far right was calling for this early election for weeks. So they were pretty much prepared as well.
It IS aoso clear that our president took this decision alone and fairly recently as its own minister were surprised by its decision 2 weeks ago
Task failed succesfully 👌
TLDR: Bankers try to bully politicians into doing what they want
Get the Lettuce at the ready!
It's France, until you can't bend the baguette anymore.
@@Joey-ct8bm 😂😂😂😂😂😂 perfect
"more than two Truss mini-budgets". she's become a unit of measurement 😂
The economic equivalent of football pitches
The Montaigne Institute is incredibly biased,...
Might as well quote Macron directly.
From nowhere Portugal gets thrown under the debt bus!
I know right!? Who was Portugal bothering....
The rest of Europe hasn't learned a thing from the UK's decisions 😂
Ah cmon i get your point but saying it rose to Portuguese levels is so mean. We improved so much.
We r still fucked
@@goncaloaraujo6644 Well you can say that in any country in the world. Guess what? They all have problems.
@@Rui301 being content with being fucked is fucked
U had but u cancelled Golden Visa and Retirement Visa cutting off the cash cow ….so normal service will soon be resumed..
@@Rui301 Well my friend, be ready as not only is France going to be punished by the EU but also Italy and Belgium. EU is going to tell each country how to improve the budget and the debt. For us here in Belgium this information is going to come this friday. Hopefully our government is going to be formed very rapidly, though I think it's going to take some time. Not as long as always but still, a couple of months.
At 6:38 Hollande wasn't yet president in 2011, it was still Sarkozy. Hollande was elected in 2012.
Ratings agencies being used against the left is appalling. Macron has increased the deficit and debt A LOT ! And yet he pretends to be the one that will be decreasing deficit, it's absurd. But since he's a neoliberal and it's reassuring for the market and ratings agencies. Whereas the left would indeed increase spending a lot, but also increase taxes even more for the rich and big companies. People say it's utopic or impossible but it's not, it's just a question of political will. Ratings agencies do not govern our country, the people do.
Do you hear the people sing?
Tax rich people = rich people leave
No, that's what globalism want us to believe.
Rich people have families they want to stay close to, they have housses they love.
Not all of them are guided by the amount of taxes they pay. If they were, none of them would have lived in France in the first place by the way 😉
@@konigstiger3252cool, but we still have all the production facilities and infrastructure, they’re not the ones working so it won’t change much
@@aurelien5747 Well, the concern isn't invalid. The fact is that capital strikes and capital flight are powerful weapons used to dissuade any leftist project, since you can't tax the money they made from people if they take it with them. Only way to avoid that is exit taxes / capital controls or straight up to seize their assets, which has its own consequences when done only in one country acting on its own.
BNP Paribas pronunciation was brutal 😂
Am I the only one who thinks Macron wants to lose the GE to Le Pen so she can do what needs to be done (end immigration etc) and take the economic blame...
Seems like something he would do, tactician that he is - already seen speculation he wants them in cohabitation until the presidential elections, since it's been known parties with PM in cohabitation usually lose votes. Of course, seems likely to fail - Hindenburg tried something similar.
That idea was floated on the Internet minutes after Macron called the election. From reputable analysts too. It is terriby cynical on Macron's part but possibly true. I think his Jupiter Complex has more to do with it than his cynical calculation, though both figure into it.
Economic electoral blackmail its a correct definition to what the Macron camp is trying to do.
BS aimed at scaring you from necessary change....
Looks like you've learnt nothing from the Liz Truss debacle.
@@inbb510This type of comment doesn't show that you know anything at all
It only shows that you are greatly influenced by medias to the point that you swallow their rhetoric to the point of spitting the title to his face
The "liz truss moment" made me giggle
i know we left the EU but for the sake of reference can you put the UK in eu-wide graphs as a guide?
4:13 I love how Portugal is always a bad example. We are truly fucked
we are not on top 4 of most debt to GDP in the EU now, so...an improvement
Are we really celebrating, lower debt, if the average person is living worse because of it and highly skilled young people are still catching planes???
@@santostv. higher debt wouldn't solve that. We are where we are because most of our population has 0 knowledge about politics or history and most are financially illiterate.
@@goncaloaraujo6644 I agree higher debt wouldn’t solve it because our problem is mismanagement and bad political “revolt”, also agree that most are financially and politically illiterate, still i don’t think is a huge reason for celebration.
UK, France, Germany you are next
5:07 Like Reform here in the UK.
Everyone who is support of nationalising all private industries in the UK should watch this to understand the issues related to it
Macron casually triggering a financial meltdown.
That’s so strange to see an English video about our politic’s problem!
Why so?
France is quite an influential country so why is it strange for it to be covered in English?
@@inbb510 because this person knows too much things compare to most of our population.
How TF is such a mess possible in one of the richest countries on earth?
look at the usa.
Argentina use to be one of the richest countries on earth in the early 20th century.
Appreciate the great content. Should Italy not be the focus, after all its debt burden is too big too fail according to ECB policy? Italy is and has been for years in a functioning chapter 11 status economically. If Italy fails, the ECB fails.
Liz Truss was the one that lasted shorter than a lettuce, right?
Yes.
"The largest in Europe except for Greece and Italy" ok, so not the largest then. Why not say one of the largest, behind Italy and Greece?
Or even the "third largest". I see that kind of shoehorned exaggeration more and more (not only TLDR). Very annoying.
Can you add the BNP Paribas report in the links?
Yes please! I wasn't able to find it, even on their French economic research website...
I beleive that's because it's the BNP puribus report
I think Italy, France and Spain to name just the big ones "regret" giving up their own money printing press.
To be fair, it sounds like they have at least made plans to pay for it (new and reinstated taxes) which truss didn't
Welp time to blame the immigrants again
Not only immigrants I'm afraid... everybody seen as different is going to have a hard time.
Immigration isn't great, therefore THEY'RE RESPONSIBLE FOR EVERYTHING AAAAAAAAAA
Yes, that is us, we really think like that.
I'm not a European, so I gotta genuine question from you Europeans -
Do you think these far-right candidates in europe are only getting votes through appeasing the rising anti-immigrant sentiments in europe? Because as I can see they're not coming with any favourable economic policies and only taking about immigration and immigrants all the time.
And is there a economic disaster going on in Europe, which is making you feel like the reason behind these are immigrants?
@@artiefakt4402the country is failing because those bastards from the next village over forced a farmers daughter to become an italian man!!
screaming "racism" no longer work to win the elections sorry...
5:20 BNP Barabus?
Je pity le fou!
Well they are British, they did not even make an effort to know the correct French pronunciation.
Lemaire increased the debt by 100 billions, i dont know how it could be worst
>criticizes left for crazy spending
>proceeds to spend a ton already just not on important things, but unlike the left without actually raising money to pay for it
Any debt crisis will be on Macron and Le Maire's hands - they're the ones who have been in government and done nothing about it, even if they try to deflect saying it's somehow someone else's fault. Funny how it always seems to be.
I love the physical cringe at "well, it's pretty radical". Quite the understatement!
Unfortunately, Current Year politics and economics is infected with too many believers of Modern Monetary Theory (aka Magic Money Tree) economics, who believe they a nation-state can just borrow and spend without consequence. Whether it's right-wingers making unfunded tax cuts, or left-wingers making unfunded spending commitments, the outcome is the same - a devalued currency, higher inflation, higher interest rates and more misery for anyone who actually works for a living.
Well said
I hate all of this radical right wing lunacy and left wing over idealism. What's clearly needed is a balance between the two but no one is ready for this I guess.
Oh yeah, obviously. Because all the centrist parties are doing so fantastically, I mean, you've seen how the national debt to GDP has been going down for the past decade in France.
Oh wait, no, it was still going up.
According to your declaration, it looks like literally no monetary policy will work. Tax cuts won't work, investment won't work, middle of the road policies aren't working.
What the hell are people supposed to vote for? Nothing is working(?)
Definitely a lot of government waste and excessive government borrowing. France is a poster child but it's everywhere in the west, especially in the US. Only thing I will say is that the left at least have a plan to fund it - problem is that the wealthy will fight them tooth and nail or leave to avoid paying their share after all these years of tax cuts.
MMT is not the reason why we have higher inflation right now, actually.
58% GDP. Oh la la France. Rich government
Don't panic at the end of WW2 Australia's debt was 120% of our GDP
Seems to be a big difference between social media and the real world here. Rarely do I see a pro-Le Pen comment or video and yet RN is performing very well in the polls.
This audience is primarily anglo and left leaning, thus should be expected to find solidarity with a grouping like the popular front, in the same way certain regions may not represent the will of the nation as a whole.
This type of channel doesn't attract RN people usually, i see a very weird amount of left
wing comments from supposed "French" defending the economical aspect of the left...
That's like 5% of the real population at best
Even people unable to count past 50 can understand that it's a joke
People sometimes only learn the way, but thankfuly that's good for everybody else in the long run.
Eurozone can and has been triggering a Eurozone crisis. This is why far right is rising in Italy, France, Germany, even post Brexit UK.
4:04 map mistakes, you did Hungary instead of Czechia
Theres no Map??
@calin6327 the time stamp goes a frame to late, if you go to 4:03 you should see it then
Edit: they removed it it seems, because of the mistake
@@denniskylling3887 lmao I see
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A 'Liz Truss moment' for France, but one that the UK bounced back from. IMF has predicted UK to have 2nd highest economic growth of the G7 (behind U.S.) over the next five years. Inflation is now only at 2%. France is just as worse off economically as the U.K. has been recently, but no one ever bashes France because they are part of the EU. Hypocrites.
Liz Truss was really unique. I don't think that France will be able to follow such a false example as that of the UK.
Hi TLDR team! Could you do an item on Irelands actual budget defecit that gets hidden by its fictional GDP (their GDP is high but its not realistic because big tech doesnt actually contribute much taxes)
Answer:
-British secret wish.
Not at all. We're not petty like the euros are.
You're absolutely wrong. Why would we wish for normal people to be affected?? You'd have to be Psycopath to wish ill on regular people.
You pout and scream and leave when we expect you to participate instead of simply having benefits. That's quite petty, petty.
It's not so much that the electorate would resent "blackmail" from the bond market as the fact that most French voters truly have little to no understanding of macroeconomics, financial markets or public budgetary constraints, for reasons that I think have to do with a) the education system, and b) the fact that they've been vaguely warned about the deficit for decades now and at the end of the day it never seemed to matter, new governments were always able to "find" the money somehow. Consider the fact that a number of "economists" from French public research institutions and universities under heavy Marxist influence have come forward in the media over the past week to make the claim that the Popular Front's manifesto is perfectly balanced and nothing out of the ordinary.
The sun never sets in France is all I say ❤
the credits show that Ben hosted when it was Jack
I bet you're European.
0:26 that's a wildly misleading graphic that starts at 22,000 to make it look more exaggerated
I'm expecting more from a news channel tbh, at least make a note
Hmmm. Pointing out that it starts at 22,000 is helpful.
If it's wildly misleading and on purpose made to exaggerate are assumptions.
It still is adding half, 12 000, and a huge jump from the norm. The norm only needed a scale around 26,000 to make the small changes that were the norm clear and readable.
Normally a scale from 0 to 40,000 wouldn't show the small changes.
@@edopronk1303 it's not about the small changed tho, and even if it were, a note would be expected
It's helpful to point out and I would have preferred differently, but the change is still massive (though also arguably strengthening the argument not to start it at 22,000.) I do wonder if they set it though - looks like a screenshot, so probably just inserted it. Still agree with your point though.
Rating agencies doing what they are suppose to do is unusual 😂😂😂😂
I find it rather interesting that smaller European countries are usually doing so much better economically than the larger ones. For example all the Nordic countries are doing okay, and the politicians actually care about having a balanced budget and low levels of debt, no matter if there is a left wing or right wing government.
848 it says bondyield over germany the graph says portugal v france if this AI we are all in themerde
at 4:05 min on the map it shows the Czech Republic with the borders of Hungary
Who cares about i9nternal austrian borders?
@@nox5555 be cautious with such comments we wouldn't want to start another World War
@@lolder04 I was in the austrian military believe me you have nothing to worry about, it is completly broken😂
There's no map at that timestamp.
@@fungo6631 i think they cut it out
I think Portugal and even Greece is paying back debts! The Euro crisis made all of the states in crisis to issue reasonable budgets. France and Italy who would have been directly hit if the ECB didn't buy the debt, are still not out of trouble....
It is less of a spending issue and more of a growth issue. Most of the issues with the French economy would be solved if the citizens would just work. No taking the month of August off, no giving exceptions for people to retire in their 50s, no 35-hour work weeks, etc.
Protectionism and stimulus aren't solving anything.
It’s funny to see all these economic graphs with a big red bit in 2020. I was actually supprised to see the Portuguese borrowing one when the big red bit was in 2012 lol
A new chalanger approaches
I mean... you could always take away Bernard Arnault's Money to mostly woop you through the first year of the Left wing alliances Plans
Voting Left wing seems like the most pragmatic option to me. The RN wants to further slash taxes. Reconquête (Macron) wants to further slash taxes. The Left wants to increase taxes, they could shrink the deficit unintentionally (for the purpose of financing social reforms).
@@user-xg6zz8qs3q Renaissance is Macron, not Reconquete. But I agree, the left has the most realistic economic program, putting people before profit and fighting against debt fearmongering. Their expenses would obviously be a huge increase but the state revenue would also go up, thus balancing out hopefully
@@user-xg6zz8qs3q why do you say "reconquête (macron)" 🤔 reconquête is Éric zemmour
@@user-xg6zz8qs3q oh, I'm fully on your side there. My comment was just meant as a jab to the mentioning of that nominal number of 300 billion, that got mentioned as if the left didn't have any plans for financing their plans (apart from the wealth taxes that got pretty much dismissed here) and would be guaranteed to end up at that amount of additional deficits. Especially since it got almost directly compared to RNs 100 billion Plans, as if that were the economically smarter decision for everyone
@@whoviansonskaro17 That is so much wishful thinking. Policy plans almost always underestimate spending and overestimate tax revenue. The idea that it will all balance out is frivolous at best. It's the mirror image of claiming tax cuts will lead to more growth and so balance out due to increased revenue. It won't happen.
Some of the plans are wildly irresponsible. You might hate financial markets, I don't like them either, but if you want to give them less power over your country, why on earth would you propose the government borrow hundreds of billions of euros from them? That only increases the power they have. And a government has no right to expect markets to fund it indefinitely, no matter how much is borrowed and no matter how it is spent. You might not like that, but it's reality. These budget plans are fairy stories designed to sell the voters a story where they will have everything they ever wanted and someone else is going to pay for all of it. The reality is that the French government should get its budget deficit under control. Spending so much more than you take in will end badly sooner or later.
TLDR supported Brexit and is pro-European Union.
Western Democracy = Guided Democracy. "Guided democracy, also called managed democracy, is a formally democratic government that functions as a de facto authoritarian government or, in some cases, as an autocratic government. Such hybrid regimes are legitimized by elections, but do not change the state's policies, motives, and goals."
2:05 you are comparing Euro budget deficits but you have the graph marked "defence spending"!
They're using one measuring both defence spending and fiscal balance - fiscal balance/budget deficit is on the y-axis.
The solution to constant overspending is shock therapy. Close all services until the budget is balanced. It's complete bollocks that governments can't find 5% of fat in their organization.
There is a bit of a tendancy to compare budget's plan from the RN and the front populaire, which is unfair I would say.
The RN don't really have a budget per say, they just say stuff. And even it the front populaire one is (too?) ambitious, it is detailed and backed up by economists.
So much bullshit in a single sentence.
A six word sentence, what's more, that's not nothing.
Brilliant news though that Le Pen is so popular in France. I envy the French. However I prefered her father the great Jean Marie Le Pen. (National Front)
Wow didn't know the Portuguese spending was so good, good for us
Ironically it not only sounds like blackmail of the rich it is.
Does anyone wonder where we would be if all the worlds governments weren’t blowing cash at an alarming rate….it feels like we’re ok the edge of something huge
Controlled collapse, and then the 'only' plan will be to right-off everyone's debt in the WEST. So, hundreds of years of crap political decisions: Can be forgotten, and all is well, to do it again.😮😮😮😂
We’ve already seen that happen with austerity in the UK the disabled unduly suffering just so we could balance the books
@@rice4550Problem is that there's two ways to balance the budget: Either cut spending or raise revenue (usually, raise taxes). When they decide to cut taxes for the rich, the only way left to balance the budget is to make the poor and elderly pay for it. Worked fine during the post-war consensus, when people paid their fair share.
Of course, there's plenty of government waste too. How many euros, pounds or dollars are spent for each one handed out? How many dollars for a pack of nails, or to hire contractors? Highest return on investment comes from lobbying, donations, mysterious job offers to spouses, etc.
We need moderate centre left parties to win. The moderate centre left support the working class, and human rights.
Reluctantly accepting a pension age of 64, let alone 62, is still fiscally unsustainable.
6:14 raising the minimum wage to 2000€ a month is a fake news, its 1600€ net.
Wages are counted in gross not net. An employer has to pay the gross.
@@shagohodds Or rather the "superbrut" which is even higher. Last month my French company forked 4800€ for me and I got 2200€ in my bank account...
@@shagohoddsbro what is a brut!
@@srinu4357brut means before taxes, net means after taxes
@@srinu4357 Just replace 'brut' with 'Gross pay'
06:25 These are not socialist policies, these are extreme popularist policies. In Turkey 2019-2023 Erdogan, who is authoritarian, did all of these points, now the inflation rate is %80 and wont recover until 2027 at minimum.
Totally, there´s nothing socialist about that kind of economic populism
Those are leftist economic policies. You can be a right-wing populist like Erdogan or Putin and still advocate for some socialist or left-wing economic policies.
No, these are left wing policies. The reason populists use them is because it gives the people a reason to tolerate authoritarianisem.
"Sacrafice your freedom for prosperity" is the oldest social contract and makeing token leftist policies makes most people happy enough to not persue leftist revolt.
@@Purjo92 The French left will tell you there are serious economists backing their program but I struggle to call them "economic policies" as if they were serious because they're not. There is a total failure to take into accounts the negative effects of the proposals. For example all this spending is supposed to boost the economy, manufacturing etc. But France doesn't manufacture much, especially not consumer goods, so any spending will go towards importing stuff. And inflation. And of course all the massive tax raises, minimum wage rise etc., will hurt thousands upon thousands of companies, especially small ones, killing many and causing a rise in unemployment.
@@aesma2522 , "serious economists" like Thomas Porcher for example.
NOOOO don't slide your hand over the table towards me.
4:30 In all fairness, Paris was only larger than London, if you consider a fairly narrow set of things to include as a part of a stock market. If you use a slightly qidee definition then the UK has been ahead since Liz Truss.
the New Popular Front wants to raise the minimum wage to 1600 euros, not 2000, which is a claim from the cgt the biggest syndicate in the country. The cost of the program you cited is not based on solid evidence, while the programm is supported by several influential economists such as Esther Duflo, 2019 economy nobel prize winner. An other estimation of the cost of the program is 106 bilions euros in three year (not 300 billion/year), which is also contested.
Excellent rejoinder.
They do want to raise the minimum wage to 2000€ per month, which is the gross value, 1600€ is simply the net value.
Influential economists, sure, but also left wing economists. Their word is not better than other economists, especially if they are politicized.
The markets. The markets. The markets. The markets. The markets. The markets. The markets. The markets. We all know the "markets" is just a euphemism for rich people and corporations
It really isn't. It's mostly risk analysis done by computers
@@sixknights2312which can’t possibly calculate the social nuances of increased living standards on productivity amongst many other things. Not everything in politics can be answered with equations.
@@sixknights2312 computers at the service or riche people
You know nothing apparently
pretty sure the market is much much better than rich people and corporations lol.
On the bright side, we've actually had premierships that were shorter than Liz Truss' back in the 3rd republic, so that would not be a first
I am completely stunned by the performance and view in Summer.
The market did not force up interest rates when liz truss announced her budget. The Bank of England has the last say on where interest rates are. They just betted that the central bank would raise rates independently due to the inflation, which they did
The Bank of England only directly controls the overnight rate on excess reserves. Other interest rates are also influenced by market activity.
@@epicurusurist9017 other rates are influenced by the overnight rate
Yeah, the point is markets expected the economy would get worse due to the mini budget, so they lost confidence. Definitely still her fault.
@@2Links No, the market bet that the central bank would raise rates due to the inflaiton at the time. The market cant set your rates when your debt is in your own currency. You can always overpower market forces, just take a look at japan's 0% interest rate policy despite running a debt to gdp ratio of 250%. It was a terrible budget, but the market cant overpower the bank of england
@@grimaffiliations3671 On the day they announced the mini-budget, the pound fell sharply, and the value of UK government bonds fell because of increased borrowing shaking confidence, causing the Bank of England to have to start buying them up to prevent a collapse in Pension funds.
Of course, it isn't responsible for all of the UK's economic woes (after all, it was never implemented and they went back on it after the massive backlash), but it definitely made things worse. But yeah, your original comment is correct that it didn't force up interest rates. Just pointing out what it did do.
Well, if you're a right-winger, you can just blame immigrants for any problem, debt in this case.. And you're done. Isn't this convenient?
True it’s very easy to be right wing
Yes if you see your country getting colonised by Afrika and islam ofcourse you turn far right 👍
There calling for a Caliphate in Hamburg Germany 🇩🇪 of course you turn far right because the liberals and the Centre right is useless
Unfortunately, just like how left wingers can always blame the rich for any problem.
And very moron to be a commie @@legitplayin6977
Omg. From America this news looks as crazy as ours.
It's funny how you keep using Portugal as an example of how bad things can get
4:05 that's not the Czech republic that's Hungary
Sad that the french can only choose between big state + more taxes, or big state + more debt
Yep! The brits are the same. No matter who they vote for they always vote for a bigger government.
more taxes for the super-richs.
@@anonyme2333 the super rich can easily avoid those taxes, those who can't end up paying for all of that (middle class and working class )
Price control to tamp down inflation? Wow.
Price controls ? 😮😅 OMG