Agreed. The Euro hasn't been performing well for years (besides the track for Raphael) but it's in agreeance with the GFS and other models this far out.
Friends in the insurance business said that Snowbirds started coming back to FL early to check on their properties after the storm. Some of them went back and return after Thanksgiving but others stayed and are already here
The point about more people being in Florida now compared to peak hurricane season (mid-Aug to mid-Oct) is a real issue. I work for an HOA in Naples, FL and we can have 3 to 4 times as many owners in residence in mid-Nov compared to Sept.
I live in Clearwater FL, and through November, we see a dramatic increase in population. Usually around Thanksgiving is when most are down here but its happening now and tons of snowbirds are back. My grandmother flys down to Ft Myers on the 21st. Maybe not now lol.
I've been in Pasco County with Team Rubicon helping with mucking, roof tarping, and sawyer crews. Lots of elderly folks still have wet drywall getting moldy, black mold
We normally head to our house in Sarasota Nov 1st, but this is the first time in years we decided to stay in Virginia for the whole holidays and head down after the New Year. Our house was spared severe damage post Helene and Milton, only minor roof damage and the worst in our landscape. Not sure our 1920s house has ever seen this much action in a hurricane season.
I live in Jacksonville Beach, we got strong storms from yhe last 2, but thats it. My family lives right at the top of Tampa Bay in Safety Harbour. They were devastated.
I find it amazing these hurricanes can sit and wait for the conditions to improve before moving forward. Even more amazing is they seem to be targeting freedom Florida as if there’s some sort of intelligence behind them.😢😮😅😊
Florida has always been the main state hit by Hurricanes, we got hit by 4 in only 6 weeks in 2004. We got hit in November in 1935 and 1985. Was that weather manipulation too?
We are packed down here in venice and sarasota. All the snowbirds came down to repair and check on their homes. Also lots of contractors in the area trying to rebuild. It will be a nightmare down here if all these snowbirds freak out and panic buy and clog the roads
While weather forecasting agencies aren't expecting a tropical storm to form by Thursday, I believe in you on what you're saying given how the chances of a storm forming have skyrocketed within the last 36 or so hours.
Most Snowbirds come after Thanksgiving or as the 1st flakes of snow begin to fall. Tho many will travel down for Thanksgiving if they have kids in Florida. I grew up on Miami Beach.... it's amazing to watch everything go from a small town like environment (everyone knows everyone) to the snowbird's arrivals. It's a valid point. More so all the construction people are currently a huge transient population who are there cleaning up after Milton, add in Cat Adjusters still adding to the mix. We had this in SFL and Miami after Katrina/Rita and should this aim at the SW FL Coast on up... that's another thing and often workers come in from all over the country. Something to think on. For example after Matthew it was almost impossible to find a hotel room in Jax while everyone was in town working on construction and cat adjusters.
Definitely can tell there are more people everywhere… I live in a small town in Florida and it’s been greatly impacted, along with the people that escape the other two hurricanes. But definitely snowbirds have made a difference in traffic and busy businesses.
Time for Florida specifically Ft. Myers to also sound the alarm. It's coming towards us in Florida, possibly a Category 3 hurricane. Things could change but it's strongly suggesting this.
36 year resident of South FL... most "snow birds" moved here permanently I haven't noticed a dramatic spike in population between seasons like we used to pre-COVID. The residents that didn't live here through Andrew wont take hurricane prep seriously nobody even prepared for Milton and we got slammed by tornadoes.
I'm not in Florida, but my parents arrived there a couple of weeks ago for the season, and I can tell you that they have no idea how to deal with a hurricane. I am really getting concerned since they are in the Bonita Springs area about a mile from the coast in SW FL. My parents have said in the past that about half the people are there by Nov 1st, some come after T-Giving choosing to do that with family before they come down for the season, and some wait till after Christmas.
I'd advise to tell them to leave temporarily at least once an official forecast from the Hurricane Center shows the area coned or shadowed...if there is a direct hit or one that cripple basic services they'd be spared from that, if not they can return safely.
Born and raised on Clearwater beach. Never seen anything like this as far has storms for Florida in my 48 years. And yes they are starting to move down
SWfl is not happy about this & yes the snowbirds will not be prepared and won't know how to deal with Sara a major hurricane. Wed Nov 20th if it happens it will be very nerve racking for alot of us. Milton was enough for us in swfl.
Here in Clermont around hwy 50 and 12st there is a mobile home community that is still under water from Milton. This next system seems to not be a fast more and may bring a ton of rain.
Another big question is what if this kind of thing continues into December possibly until almost Christmas time as I've been saying that indications are that it's possible this year. In that case, people by that time think hurricane season is over for sure by then and don't realize that we may not be done even by early December. Therefore, we should be thinking that same thing for beyond Thanksgiving now in 2024.
Well that explains why I've been seeing vessels headed North...Still more headed south then north ...But yup there been traveling threw the last two weeks.
@@travelkingdom8987 it looks like it’s a TD already tbh because there is a rapidly forming, consolidating and defined LLC forming under the blob of convection to the SE of Jamaica also the wind shear will be at 0 to 5kts for the next 5 days with a decently moist environment it has a better environment than what Beryl had and has the same environment that Milton had
Patterns tend to repeat themselves throughout the season too, which makes me a little concerned for the Tampa area, Hopefully sarah doesn't give this area what Milton could have, and we are still cleaning up from Milton. Of course storms don't care where they hit.
I live in a place with a lot of snowbirds. I have interaction with many of them on a weekly basis. Most wait till after Christmas before coming to Florida. Maybe 20 percent show up this early. They chose to have the holidays with family up north then head south. And it seems they stay till after Easter.
I am not a snowbird. Tampa area full time. All I can say is that traffic has picked up significantly. Normally an indication that snowbirds have arrived.
Ridiculous that Florida may have to deal with this again. We should have had cold fronts already. Everything is late by about a month. We will probably have more cold weather in March and April than November
Honestly I think most of the "snow birds" dont come down until after Jan 1st or even 2nd week of January. I also vacation in Florida regularly and the vacation rentals are so much cheaper in November and through most of December as compared to January which means not as many people are here right now.
Same here, Mad Beach. 🥵 If it hits us again we are just going to demolish the house and hole on to the land for a while. Too many floods since Eta exactly a year ago. Won’t trust the house with another so soon.
This is nothing for people in Florida to play around with. It too was the fastest increase in chances of development for a disturbance I've ever seen, from 20% Sunday evening to 90% Tuesday afternoon. In fact, I just found out that the NHC tagged it as invest 99L. It would tie 2024 with 2004 for most hurricane landfalls in Florida if the GFS model verifies as well.
@ No, an invest is tagged before it has a center and becomes a tropical cyclone. When it officially becomes a tropical cyclone it’s designated as either a tropical depression or a tropical storm. This goes for all tropical systems.
Why doesnt anyone ever talk about geoengineering? Does anyone even know about it? Man has been working on mastering the weather since 1897 and now they completely control the weather and the Air Force and Navy even admitted it!! Weather is a force multiplier weapon and it will only get worse as the years pass.
Several friends from Canada usually come down for winter but after the "GD FELON" got in again they said we're going to Spain from now on. They didn't say it so nicely.
Arrived near Sarasota one week ago. Having survived Helene well south and west of Asheville in NC. BUT prepare house here for each hurricane remotely. Most returning snowbirds own some type of property here. Renters usually come after Christmas.
The horribly prolific 2024 season fixated on Cuba and Florida it seems...I just experienced a ton of persistent rain from this embryonic system on the S coast of the DR
The fact that many Euro ensembles are showing intense hurricanes this far out certainly has me worried
Agreed. The Euro hasn't been performing well for years (besides the track for Raphael) but it's in agreeance with the GFS and other models this far out.
Don't worry, Florida can just ignore it. Thoughts and prayers!
I live in Florida. Definitely a lot of snowbirds here right now.
For sure and I know the keys won't be evacuating tourists unless it's a bullseye, Cat 4 or greater. $$$$$
My town is slammed with snowbirds checking and repairing their vacation homes. It'll be a fuster cluck if evacuations need to happen
Friends in the insurance business said that Snowbirds started coming back to FL early to check on their properties after the storm. Some of them went back and return after Thanksgiving but others stayed and are already here
Marco Island here, our population has tripled within a week. There are definitely a LOT of people back here.
The point about more people being in Florida now compared to peak hurricane season (mid-Aug to mid-Oct) is a real issue. I work for an HOA in Naples, FL and we can have 3 to 4 times as many owners in residence in mid-Nov compared to Sept.
Hello neighbor!
No worries Fraudster Rick will take care of them , lol!
I am down in Fort Lauderdale and the campgrounds are already full!!
I live in Clearwater FL, and through November, we see a dramatic increase in population. Usually around Thanksgiving is when most are down here but its happening now and tons of snowbirds are back. My grandmother flys down to Ft Myers on the 21st. Maybe not now lol.
Thanks for bringing this to everyone's attention.
I've been in Pasco County with Team Rubicon helping with mucking, roof tarping, and sawyer crews. Lots of elderly folks still have wet drywall getting moldy, black mold
The "finish the job" hurricane is here! Greetings from Tampa haha
We normally head to our house in Sarasota Nov 1st, but this is the first time in years we decided to stay in Virginia for the whole holidays and head down after the New Year. Our house was spared severe damage post Helene and Milton, only minor roof damage and the worst in our landscape. Not sure our 1920s house has ever seen this much action in a hurricane season.
My grandparents were "snowbirds" but they typically didn't go until after the new year
Greetings from Houston
This hurricane season has been full of surprises.
@@molonlave2193 No surprises, every hurricane has been predicted accurately and timely.
Live full time in Naples and the migration is certainly in full swing
It's going to be an interesting week monitoring this.
I live in Jacksonville Beach, we got strong storms from yhe last 2, but thats it. My family lives right at the top of Tampa Bay in Safety Harbour. They were devastated.
I find it amazing these hurricanes can sit and wait for the conditions to improve before moving forward. Even more amazing is they seem to be targeting freedom Florida as if there’s some sort of intelligence behind them.😢😮😅😊
Agreed. It’s manipulated.
Explain exactly how. The world is waiting.
@@hurricanetrack you don’t know about the geoengineering that’s going on?
@@FaithwalkerToddI believe that do know..
Florida has always been the main state hit by Hurricanes, we got hit by 4 in only 6 weeks in 2004. We got hit in November in 1935 and 1985. Was that weather manipulation too?
We are packed down here in venice and sarasota. All the snowbirds came down to repair and check on their homes. Also lots of contractors in the area trying to rebuild. It will be a nightmare down here if all these snowbirds freak out and panic buy and clog the roads
While weather forecasting agencies aren't expecting a tropical storm to form by Thursday, I believe in you on what you're saying given how the chances of a storm forming have skyrocketed within the last 36 or so hours.
Most Snowbirds come after Thanksgiving or as the 1st flakes of snow begin to fall. Tho many will travel down for Thanksgiving if they have kids in Florida.
I grew up on Miami Beach.... it's amazing to watch everything go from a small town like environment (everyone knows everyone) to the snowbird's arrivals.
It's a valid point.
More so all the construction people are currently a huge transient population who are there cleaning up after Milton, add in Cat Adjusters still adding to the mix. We had this in SFL and Miami after Katrina/Rita and should this aim at the SW FL Coast on up... that's another thing and often workers come in from all over the country. Something to think on.
For example after Matthew it was almost impossible to find a hotel room in Jax while everyone was in town working on construction and cat adjusters.
Great insight!
Definitely can tell there are more people everywhere… I live in a small town in Florida and it’s been greatly impacted, along with the people that escape the other two hurricanes. But definitely snowbirds have made a difference in traffic and busy businesses.
Time for Florida specifically Ft. Myers to also sound the alarm. It's coming towards us in Florida, possibly a Category 3 hurricane. Things could change but it's strongly suggesting this.
We are used to these storms in this neck of the woods but this late in the season, you're going to have a lot of frightened snowbirds
5:30 the way those isolines track to the hypocenter is amazing, this region reminds me of the spot on Jupiter
Hmm well alrighty then thank you Mark from Coastal GA!
36 year resident of South FL... most "snow birds" moved here permanently I haven't noticed a dramatic spike in population between seasons like we used to pre-COVID. The residents that didn't live here through Andrew wont take hurricane prep seriously nobody even prepared for Milton and we got slammed by tornadoes.
island ambergis caye , with san pedro belize i am in deep fear this is scary
I'm not in Florida, but my parents arrived there a couple of weeks ago for the season, and I can tell you that they have no idea how to deal with a hurricane. I am really getting concerned since they are in the Bonita Springs area about a mile from the coast in SW FL. My parents have said in the past that about half the people are there by Nov 1st, some come after T-Giving choosing to do that with family before they come down for the season, and some wait till after Christmas.
Ur parents might be cooked
I'd advise to tell them to leave temporarily at least once an official forecast from the Hurricane Center shows the area coned or shadowed...if there is a direct hit or one that cripple basic services they'd be spared from that, if not they can return safely.
@@flexx7543 I am definitely going top wait until there is a more concrete forecast
Born and raised on Clearwater beach. Never seen anything like this as far has storms for Florida in my 48 years. And yes they are starting to move down
@@jaycoats2565 I guess you forgot about 2004, when we had 4 hit in only 6 weeks.
As soon as you posted this, the AOI has been designated as, you guessed it, Invest 99L
Why has this season been so disconnected from climatology? Hardly any activity at the peak of the season but major hurricanes in July and November?
You are hardly ever wrong about these things!
SWfl is not happy about this & yes the snowbirds will not be prepared and won't know how to deal with Sara a major hurricane. Wed Nov 20th if it happens it will be very nerve racking for alot of us. Milton was enough for us in swfl.
I live in Florida but I'm not a snowbird. I'm a native. I hope we don't get hit for a third time this year.
From Minnesota now I’m in Palm Bay
Here in Clermont around hwy 50 and 12st there is a mobile home community that is still under water from Milton. This next system seems to not be a fast more and may bring a ton of rain.
So water temps in the Gulf?
Thx Mark
Another big question is what if this kind of thing continues into December possibly until almost Christmas time as I've been saying that indications are that it's possible this year. In that case, people by that time think hurricane season is over for sure by then and don't realize that we may not be done even by early December. Therefore, we should be thinking that same thing for beyond Thanksgiving now in 2024.
If the Gulf waters continue at the record high temps, then hurricanes continuing in Dec is possible
@ Correct, perhaps into Christmas and beyond possibly heading into the new year.
@brandondunn4562 So like 2005? The 2005 season didn't end until January 6th 2006. It's happened before.
Well that explains why I've been seeing vessels headed North...Still more headed south then north ...But yup there been traveling threw the last two weeks.
The fact that this could become a c5 hurricane is mental.
If it’s become cat 5 hurricane , it’s gonna be a wild year . Start with Cat 5 hurricane and end with Cat 5 hurricane
@@travelkingdom8987 it looks like it’s a TD already tbh because there is a rapidly forming, consolidating and defined LLC forming under the blob of convection to the SE of Jamaica also the wind shear will be at 0 to 5kts for the next 5 days with a decently moist environment it has a better environment than what Beryl had and has the same environment that Milton had
@@justinwilson3922 Even if it did, it wouldn't last. It would get torn apart and rapidly weaken like Milton. Too much shear.
Patterns tend to repeat themselves throughout the season too, which makes me a little concerned for the Tampa area, Hopefully sarah doesn't give this area what Milton could have, and we are still cleaning up from Milton. Of course storms don't care where they hit.
Just got back a week ago from Ohio. Southwest Florida- can’t catch a break.
I live in a place with a lot of snowbirds. I have interaction with many of them on a weekly basis. Most wait till after Christmas before coming to Florida. Maybe 20 percent show up this early. They chose to have the holidays with family up north then head south. And it seems they stay till after Easter.
Thank you Mark!
The way how its gonna sit for days in the Caribbean, its like Wilma then a cold front picks it up and made landfall in Florida
FL full-timers in Port Charlotte - it sounds like we'll be putting up the storm shutters again. Ugh.
I am not a snowbird. Tampa area full time. All I can say is that traffic has picked up significantly. Normally an indication that snowbirds have arrived.
That is interesting!
More people = bigger potensial for stupid decisions being made. 100% valid reason to be worried
I live in fort Myers,florida.yikes😮😬😳.
Yeah but since when does a track prediction 8 days out end up being accurate?
My shutters and Christmas tree might be up next week 😅
Ridiculous that Florida may have to deal with this again. We should have had cold fronts already. Everything is late by about a month. We will probably have more cold weather in March and April than November
The traffic tells me the snowbirds are back.
Honestly I think most of the "snow birds" dont come down until after Jan 1st or even 2nd week of January. I also vacation in Florida regularly and the vacation rentals are so much cheaper in November and through most of December as compared to January which means not as many people are here right now.
Will Tallahassee be impacted should we prepare
im shoced no invest has bbeen called yet, it already looks organizing itself rn
It finally was tagged invest 99L. Saw it on what's now X.
Will it hit Jamaica and if so when ?
I was hoping to not buy any more gas for my generator this season. I guess it's not over until it's over.
ALL THOSE WHO KNOW HOW TO PRAY START TELLING THIS STORM PEACE BE STILL IN JESUS NAME
I just put everything back on the lanai…😢
Gotta love all the stalling as an intense hurricane right by Central America aka mitch 2.0
Florida also had hurricane Debby
Not a snowbird, but a person that have evacuated from Tampa bay with Helene and Milton - wow🥵😭
Same here, Mad Beach. 🥵 If it hits us again we are just going to demolish the house and hole on to the land for a while. Too many floods since Eta exactly a year ago. Won’t trust the house with another so soon.
@@khbow2810 I’m sorry to hear that💔 let’s hope for the best. Even though when Mark says something is serious - it always is
On a cruise ship in Mexico now. Weather is beautiful.
Going next month, hopefully calm.
@ Roatan Island today. It’s cloudy and chilly. Calling for heavy rain and a t storm.
@Trophy9869 thank you for the update! I didn’t think that it would be chilly, but I guess the rain helps to cool things a bit.
@ that was fast. Around lunch time they said we were in a tropical rainstorm. And an hour ago it says tropical storm on the ship app.
I work in hotels in Miami , we are filling up ! Everywhere
Those visitors will be in hotels which is the safest place.
First time in Recorded History!👁The Eye of The Hurricane Forms before The Man-Made Hurricane! ua-cam.com/video/QelMEBE7M9I/v-deo.html
Hurricane season isn't over until November 30!! Hope it goes away tho...
tampa here. Not again.
Hopefully this isn’t the new norm 😬 not during the holidays.
My Grandparents come down in early January.
Will Belize Central will get harrycane
Having been flooded by helene, and blown away by milton, I can definitely do withOUT another stupid storm!
This is nothing for people in Florida to play around with. It too was the fastest increase in chances of development for a disturbance I've ever seen, from 20% Sunday evening to 90% Tuesday afternoon. In fact, I just found out that the NHC tagged it as invest 99L. It would tie 2024 with 2004 for most hurricane landfalls in Florida if the GFS model verifies as well.
@ No, an invest is tagged before it has a center and becomes a tropical cyclone. When it officially becomes a tropical cyclone it’s designated as either a tropical depression or a tropical storm. This goes for all tropical systems.
We are getting ready for Sarah here in California. Just in case. You never know 🤪
ITS CALLED WEATHER WARFARE, OPERATION POPEYE
Wednesday November 20th😮
Bet you didn’t think you’d be traveling to Florida for work in late November lol
Why doesnt anyone ever talk about geoengineering? Does anyone even know about it? Man has been working on mastering the weather since 1897 and now they completely control the weather and the Air Force and Navy even admitted it!! Weather is a force multiplier weapon and it will only get worse as the years pass.
It’s a invest now
Looks like another Wilma too me.
SOUIND is spelled wrong
Indeed it is. Fixed on thumb however. Don’t know how that slipped by me.
@@hurricanetrack Lol, are you heading to the keys or everglades????
It’s full moon if it comes to Fl it’s bad news
Several friends from Canada usually come down for winter but after the "GD FELON" got in again they said we're going to Spain from now on. They didn't say it so nicely.
Arrived near Sarasota one week ago. Having survived Helene well south and west of Asheville in NC. BUT prepare house here for each hurricane remotely. Most returning snowbirds own some type of property here. Renters usually come after Christmas.
Whats a snowbird
Our local weather man in Tampa bay said that you guys are full of nonsense
The horribly prolific 2024 season fixated on Cuba and Florida it seems...I just experienced a ton of persistent rain from this embryonic system on the S coast of the DR