The West Is Shooting Its OWN FOOT Trying To Isolate China | Warwick Powell
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- Опубліковано 18 чер 2024
- It would be funny, if it wasn't so tragic, that the Collective West believes it can somehow "contain" China or beat it into submission, when it is clearly Beijing that has the economic upper-hand in the global economic game. The best indication of that is how "decoupling" has spectacularly failed and the visit of Jennet Yellen to Beijing has been ample evidence that the US has lost most if not all global competitive advantage. At the same time, western policies are now hurting western economies more than the Chinese or Russians. But will they ever understand that it is their own policies that create local downturns?
Warwick Powell is an Adjunct Professor at Queensland University of Technology in Brisbane and he is also a Senior Fellow at the Taihe Institute, a non-government international think tank based in Beijing.
Warwick’s does research at the intersection of global supply chains, international geopolitical economy, and contemporary technologies including blockchains and digital currencies.
Janet Yellen will NEVER complain China’s overcapacity if China continues to export toys and clothing or any low-end products. Take motor vehicle, both combustion engine and electric vehicle, for example, We hear NO complain or concern for Japan who exports roughly 70+%, or German 60+% or South Korea 50+% of their annual gross production, but American are talking about China for its only 15% exports by year 2023. Global market competition is the only judge to decide if any enterprise can survive, and protectionism in the long run is only to deteriorate the competitiveness and destined for failure.
Elon Musk is not pleased.
@@urrywest Elon Musk is constantly complaining about America for lack of electricity generatable and charge station nationwide to support Tesla EV. This is something any EV maker will think twice before deploying sales network in US.
@@charlesyang4923 Didyou see the comments about Huway[sp] and Open Source -vs- what Warwick Powell calls "Techno feudalism"?
I am quite sure that the west will say that is cheating as well... The right to fix your own equpment in agraculture is particularly tough.
The US destroyed Japan’s Industry by 1990, with little recovery. The US hates the fact that they cannot control China like that. The US brought down Europe’s Industry by the recent destruction of NordStream Pipeline from Russia.
"destined for failure"
...as is the West in general. I'm a member of the West myself (though I moved to China decades ago), and am VERY familiar with our extremely dark and abusive history. I find it very difficult to be sad for the decline of the West, and I suspect that future historians will not paint the rosy picture of Western dominance that currently exists.
The overcapacity in the U.S. arms industry has led to the instigation of wars and unrest all over the world.
We don't have over capacity. What we have is monopolistic rent seaking with underwealming production results.... We are also over comitted gopolitically much like the corpral from Austria during world war two.
China has demonstrated its capability in shipbuilding, infrastructure construction, high-speed rail, steel, aluminum, rare earth, electric cars, solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries. Together with other priorities, China should concentrate on increasing its capability in nuclear power (Thorium molten salt reactor and Femtosecond Laser-Induced Aneutronic Lattice Confinement Fusion ) generation to reduce its dependency on coal and imported oil and gas. Unlimited energy and vertical farming will end China's food dilemma. All these capabilities will benefit the rest of the world.
India will overtake China as a superpower by 2030
Between 2006 and 2016, I spent a lot of time travelling around East Asia. Mainly Japan, but also China, Taiwan and S Korea. And even back then, all the talk was of China gradually pivoting away from exports, and creating its own 'middle class' who would have disposable income, and become domestic consumers. So one can see this was all planned out beforehand.
(Off-topic, but did you see the Guardian had done an article praising the Azov Brigade? Calling them 'elite', and saying they would save Ukraine. I couldn't believe my eyes! It is/was hidden away in their 'Ukraine' section. No comments allowed. I have been a regular reader since the mid-1970s, and I never thought I'd see anything like that! They have blood on their hands - the blood of young Ukrainians).
Wonder who paid them what for making such even bigger asses of themselves at this late date when even most of their sleepy minded readers would know better. They must be hard pressed. I’d be surprised if the G is round for much longer.
And they don't care, because they wrote what their masters told them to write.
The Guardian is now just a cesspit of NeoCon lies and propaganda- its editorial team and contributors are now I think beneath contempt.
I stopped reading the Guardian.
Taiwan is also part of China
Warwick always speaks a lot of sense. Great guest.
Good to hear China is rejecting the tech rent model. Open source rocks!
?? They do lower cost because they have the infrastructure [food, housing, energy, education, transportaion] for less eiso that labor can live for less and with little debt.
This win-win that you speak of is a consept.... We see how it plays out in twenty years.
It is also notable that China has been doing 'currnecy manipulation' by buying US T-bonds. If they don't there will be bitching ballance of trade issues that pushes the Yuan higher...
Currently they are de-risking from the dollar which has been weapoinized....
Now I see the Powell's comments... I suppose that the west will say 'Open Source' is Cheating...
China cheats the western model in a lot of ways... Anzieties about how China cheats wall street were stated sicinctly during the Reagan adminstration.
@@urrywest They have cheap living cost as they dont extract economic rent from everyone. Oligarchy always lives on rent.
@@Jay...777 That is kind of my impession..... I noted the "Techno-Fudalsim" comment near the end of the video as well. .... I think it goes along with 'The right to repair'
Thanks Pascal for inviting Warwick Powell discussing objective Truth about China. Enlightening & a breath of fresh air 👌👍
Great points by Warwick Powell about the various rounds of unintended consequences of technology bans and decoupling!
Extremely insightful. Your attempt to destroy a foreign countries productivity does harm to yourself and strengthens theirs is poetic justice. Amazing.
That’s totally untrue, there are many countries who can’t even develop roads, let alone innovate in any way.
@@jayy1980 You have to catch up in terms of technology in order to innovate. Having a strong industrial base is also extremely beneficial. The countries that can not innovate are those that have yet to develop into economic entities even capable of innovation. China is not such a country.
The guest is very knowledgeable in geoeconomics and geopolitics. He has his own special insight and observation of others.
Great explanations by your good guest.
Superb analysis. It's rare to hear alternative views on these issues in the Australian mainstream media - who uniformly think it is more lucrative to bang the war drums than to talk about buildling a better future. It makes me happy to know that there are Australians who have not swallowed the Kool aid.
This is excellent, never heard of this speaker before.
If you study the Chinese history, 2 abilities come to the fore - perseverance & innovation.
innovation?
Aggressive perseverance, most definitly.
Expansion/development of products and innovations of other nations, for sure.
But truly innovative, I don't think so.
Another excellent guest!! Thank you to you both.
Thank you Warwick for telling us the true state of things going on around the world .
Brilliant!
Conspicuously, China has transcended from a low tech manufacturing economy to become inarguably the new leader in Industry 4.0. It has moved ahead of the industrialised West in the integration of intelligent digital technologies into manufacturing and industrial processes encompassing industrial IoT networks, AI, Big Data, robotics, and automation.
To Washington, that was not supposed to be. At least not in another ten to twenty years from now.
That explains why Washington is doubling down on its efforts to slow down China. Clearly, to Washington the greatest leverage against its new found peer competitor will have to come from a collective approach involving its allies - accompanied by a collective, coordinated, and sustained effort - to isolate and to deny China the advanced and cutting-edge technology, as well as the access to the their markets. However, such belligerent denial strategy will not work. Instead it had actually speeded up China’s push towards innovation and technological self-reliance, as well as opening up new frontiers and markets for its affordable and high quality products.
Truth be told, the so-called “Chip War” - the battle to control ostensibly the world’s most critical resources-microchip technology - has ended as soon as it started. Why do I say that?
Simply put, China was contented to buy advanced chips “off the shelf”. But that was until Washington waged the so-called Chip War thinking, erroneously, that it will strangulate the Chinese. But instead of achieving that shallow goal, it backfired. It has actually serve as a catalyst to accelerate China’s transition to become the new leader in Industry 4.0.
It always surprised me how silly and fantastical a lot of supposedly serious people in the west's view of their own development history was. Rooting it all in "liberal democratic" values never stood up to scrutiny.
A lot of technological progress comes from iteration derived from industrial practice so it's unsurprising to me that China with it's huge industrial scale is also innovating very quickly.
My understanding is they're still behind in cutting edge AI development? A lot of the Machine learning breakthroughs came through the US and UK. My understanding is China had a wake up call when AlphaGo came out and has invested a lot of resources into AI but is still playing catch up.
Excellent comment. I only disagree with the following.
"To Washington, that was not supposed to be. At least not in another ten to twenty years from now. "
You had it right at first. The assumption was that the Chinese would remain in a subservient position, providing relatively cheap products to the West while the US continued to dominate the high-tech space. The Plaza Accord and the knee-capping of Japan's high-tech industries made it clear to those paying attention that the US would not allow a peer competitor to arise in the economic sphere.
Sadly for the US, China's high-tech development was too fast and too resilient for the US' standard approach to do more than dent it. Huawei's recent string of successes, however, show that the dented vehicle of Chinese technological progress is still roaring down the road and won't be halted.
@@CallousCarter "My understanding is they're still behind in cutting edge AI development? A lot of the Machine learning breakthroughs came through the US and UK"
Some interesting critical analyses of the West's AI advancement show that it is largely cosmetic. Scratch the surface, and you find that all is not well.
Beside that, however, is the strange way in which the US in particular is pursuing AI. The focus is on the service market and marketing while China has chosen to focus on industrial and logistic uses. I suspect that China's focus will be more beneficial in terms of national power, while the Western approach will make some mega-corporations immensely wealthy.
And we Aussie learn NOTHING from our Neighbors in the north ! ?
OZ never learn when she always follow master US
The Aussies are too comfortable.
For 30+ years, Aussies have enjoyed an unprecedented uninterrupted economic expansion, in part due to the unsatiable exports to China. For a country this big, this rich in resources, and with lots of smart and educated people . . . yet it has few industries. Is this healthy?
@@MetaView7 The main reason is .. All the Aussie government / leaders is gutless to disobey his Master , except ONE EX PM .. he was given a " Regime Change " special treatment . I know . I live in this useless govern 60th century land !
@@MetaView7 Much more healthier than China.
@@520hong "Much more healthier than China."
Get better sources, then. China is currently handling a controlled demolition of its real estate bubble while still accomplishing 5%+ growth. The Western governments can only seethe in jealousy and complain about Chinese overcapacity.
You are deep in a well of copium, because your sources are deep in their own wells of copium.
Get better sources.
No country consumes everything it produces. Any grade schooler understands this.
US produces huge volume of agricultural products for export. Miidle Esst coubtries export hugebvolume of oil.
European coubtries export huge amount bof cars and nachineries. Are they all over capacity ?
Any one with minimum IQ levrl understands this.
Hi Mr Warwick and Pascal ❤️🇨🇭🙏😇👋
Warwick is great guest 😀
Very very insightful....thank you both for sharing your learning & knowledge....
Congratulations on 100k subs Pascal
State-controlled enterprises in China offer public services like infrastructure construction, electricity and water supply and advanced science and technology research for military and future applications that featured either long ROI or non-profit pursuing characteristics. This is a typical leitmotif for socialist country. What makes China special is its extreme large domestic market allowing entrepreneur to come up with innovative ideas and business models comprising its vibrant private business sectors that must gone thru extensive internal competition before first thriving within China then moving on to the globe.
Didn't someone say once, "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em" ?
What a great person to interview! He has so much knowledge. Well done to find and have him on the show!
👍👍👍🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳🇨🇳👏👏👏
👍👍👍
true true in the name of protecting something is actually destroying it.
An informative and insightful commentary.😊
Great interview.Thanks
BRAVO CHINA !!!!!!!
好样的， 中国！
@@huxx8888 BRAVO CHINA !!!!!!!
Very interesting interview!
Excelent. Thank you from a new subscriber.
Very impressive picking the brains of Warwick Powell! Facts and logic base arguments really good.
Classic Aussie voice. Sounded odd at first on Pascal’s channel but in a few minutes it just makes me feel more at home here.
I need to listen to this twice though. My financial IQ isn’t high.
Excellent analysis and very insightful.
Thank you.
Techno- feudalism ... digital landlords is exactly right. The western IP based companies were/are not happy with the digital public infrastructure that India built in the UPI, but for India it has boosted digital payment transaction sky high without the exorbitant fees that Western (read US) private payment systems extract from the payer and the payee, and boosted innovation in payment platforms that sit on top of UPI, exactly like Warwick mentions happened in the case of Huawei in China. Spurs innovation and economic activity rather than throttle/destroy it by the digital landlords. A new form of open non-rent-seeking capitalism that will supercharge economies while not allowing Western techno-feudalism. What a concept!
"China is a sleeping giant, when she wakes she will shake the world", or "China is a sleeping dragon" or China is a sleeping lion, is a phrase widely attributed (albeit without evidence) to Napoleon Bonaparte,
Tres bonne video riche d'enseillement
From low coat mass productions to high quality technical innovations. It's a logical process. Its called two levels economy.
It is a shame that Prof Warwick Powell did not have the chance to debate about adopting 5G from Huawei in Australia instead let a bunch of so-called national security experts to ban the use of Huawei's technology without showing the backdoor and costs not only the quality of 5G in Australia but also the high cost to consumers and other end users. Do those experts in National Risk assessments have a financial holding in Ericsson or Nokia?
West is isolate west 😂😂
Very informative video; great 👍
Good one. Glad to hear from someone who looks at the whole picture. Just give me the theory - I can arrive at my own conclusions.
Decoupling is an ultimately stupid idea. We will thrive by working together, not by isolating ourselves. The American Neocon government is supremely retrogressive.
He says that but there has been significant abrupt decoupling already and the trend will continue.
The Stanford Research Institute Center for the study of Social Policy aims to change the desire of mankind from that of industrial progress to one that ambraces war by non-violent or non-linear confrontation.
The study asserts that, in our present society, the image of industrial and technological man is obsolete and must be discarded.
The SRI study concludes that "we must change thr industrial-technological image of man fast, and that the last two centurirs will be inadequate for the post-industrial era."
Going with the trend of AI "transformation", we're witnessing a "singularity" of sorts as China recursively builds upon their tech-strength on tech-strength. This is spilling over to global economics & politics, but not (yet?) socially. From being a futurist to becoming a present project planner - the forward pathways are going to be wild! ⚡
we shall see in 5 years if the projection hold true.
China's unique experience in modern industrialization during cold war period make it unprecedented. China started out its industrialization path with heavy industry (steel mill, oil refinery, armament...etc) aimed for military support (to USSR) during 1980 before contributing its multi-millions labor force to the globe with assembly and light industry after joining WTO by 2000. What China tried to offer to any developing country is an ad hoc industrialization policy depending upon the strength & abundance of resource (physical and human) ownership and state-level financial capability. You can be an expert in type-specific agriculture plantation or mineral retraction first and then move up to the value-added chain for manufacturing integration.
the Soviet Union offered China and India 150+ programs to industrialize in the 50's.
@@willengel-vs8ht To be precise, Soviet and East European countries together had sold with technological assistance too total 156 heavy industrial projects to China in the 50’.
@@charlesyang4923 it was free.
@@willengel-vs8ht Never endorse what you don’t really know. It took China decades to pay thru wheat and barley in the form of barter trade.
Technofeudalism, autoimmune policies… very insightful.
Without traveling much, but a bit, and reading, one can get a decent picture. Hegemonic trade pattern is that most of imports and exports are to and from hegemon, and hegemon dominates production of goods with highest added value. E.g. the trade of Rome with neighbors EXCEPT Persia. Quasi--hegemon may mediate a trade, but without dominance in production, and that tends to be unstable, Portugal and Spain had quasi-hegemon position for relatively brief time, but as mediators, they were by-passed by Netherlands, subsequently by Britain. So this time the collective West is a bit like Spain ca. 1600 or Netherlands ca. 1670: production of most profitable goods declined through outsourcing, so it uses military dominance to maintain the mediator position, but that military balance follows production too with some delay. That raises a point what is the good strategy for a declining power? A declined power can have a comfortable existence, Netherlands did not become destitute after loosing to England, but that requires a strategy that does not put all eggs in the basket of military domination -- which is futile.
The notion that solar and wind would allow any country to achieve electricity autonomy is hard to agree with. renewables require considerable commodities to build the infrastructure (so autonomy is nigh impossible), require considerable hydrocarbons to manufacture the infrastructure and ultimately will never be able to scale up to meet our ever increasing electricity needs. the projections of the energy needs of AI data centres is significant.
24 Apr 2024 - IDC: Chinese Smartphone Market Maintains its Recovery Momentum at 6.5% Growth in 1Q24, Honor and Huawei Tied for Top Spot
👍✌️👍🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦➕️👏👏👏
The power of AUTOIMMUNITY ( Self protection) has the opposite effect of being the birth of other accelerated alternative open sourced technologies which leads to the rise of Huawei's CHIP PRODUCTION in China and the indigenous Indian G5 development
Professional wrestling.
Do unboxing silver soon😅😅😅
Not USA,in coming 10 years young populations growth will be the main issue for china
China should not underestimate this issue like Japan South Korea.
The USA has successfully forced Mexico to cancel the deal to allow BYD cars to be built in Mexico for export into the USA.
All I can say is … hahahahahahaha
Chinese version of technology innovation is targeted towards improvement of their country and ordinary people lives in all areas.
Is Warwick Powell related to Colin Powell ? , or is that Colin Powells avatar.
As if it hasn't saddled itself with enough other problems, due to the huge amount of debt and derivatives both domestically and internationally, the U.S. is on an irreversible course toward runaway inflation and, eventually, total government bankruptcy. This will become increasingly evident throughout the 2020s and probably culminate sometime in the early 2030s.
What will happen then? The reason I said that China will 'drag the west kicking and screaming into the 21st century' is that I think something like the following will develop:
The U.S. will be in terrible shape - but it has some assets that are worthwhile to the world economy - a large landmass with natural resources, extensive (although aging and in need of refurbishment) infrastructure, some tech expertise remaining, some educational facilities remaining, a fairly large and heterogeneous population, etc....the stuff of any formerly 1st world country. It's also an increasingly dangerous neck of the woods to leave with a bunch of nukes sitting around. It's bordered by Canada and Mexico - large countries resource-wise in their own right, and has connections with Europe, Australia, etc.
I mention these attributes because I think that China and the Global South will see the U.S. not only as a danger, but also as a potential asset to the world economy. Once the U.S. finds itself in trouble and finally capitulates to reality - which is unavoidable - if the Global South can extend some 'tough love' and work with this newly cooperative America to get it on its feet and being productive, they will see that as preferable to having it continue as some sort of chaotic rogue state. I can see agreements being implemented which the U.S. will not be able to refuse, stabilizing the money, extending loans, building infrastructure, etc. These will involve binding conditions wherein China et al can be assured that they will benefit from what America has left of itself.
Unlike the west, China, the BRICS+ and its sister organisations do not waste time with false ideologies - they're pragmatic and forward looking. Once the west's money and bullying ability has disappeared and it can't beat 'em, it'll join 'em. That will be 'the only game in town'.
Pascal basic thinking freespeach bad fascism good
you made your bed West now you get to sleep in it....... Why do you think BRICS has taken off like wildfire?
0Biden is a puppet of the Clinton/0bama Syndicate, disciples of the "Cloward-Piven Strategy". They hate the American way because they worship Moloch.
The "bed was made: by traitorous politicians & businessmen, plus others who sold-out a way of life that was superior to any other worldwide, including yours!
Westerners didn't make a bed. They were betrayed...🤔😳 Brics took off as planned by 0biden's sanctions.
Has it? India is already realigning with the west given border tensions with China and their activity in the South China Sea.
Russias economy is struggling due to a needless war it started.
There is also already contention about the direction to take BRICS (mostly coming from Brazil).
Either way we shall see what happens but the idea that countries which largely still subsist on foreign investment and trade from "the west" (predominantly the EU and the USA) are a threat to it is. ... well a little silly.
I am half British half Brazilian so I dont have a dog in this fight. But I suggest examining your bias because pride cometh before the fall.
...The "bed was made: by traitorous politicians & businessmen, plus others who sold-out a way of life that was superior to any other worldwide, including yours!
0Biden is a puppet of the Clinton/0bama Syndicate, disciples of the "Cloward-Piven Strategy".
Westerners didn't make a bed. They were betrayed...🤔😳 Brics took off as planned by 0biden's sanctions.
Follow India. 😊
Calling leftists to discuss the left never works. 😊
Is it coincidence that he looks like Colin Powell?
You can tell he is Australian because he is allergic to the word communism hahaha wow i hate my country haha
Jai Hind. The 5Eyes consumers could and should pay a bit more for our Made in India products which are produced without overcapacity, slave labor or subsidies.
I'm disappointed that this podcast never touched on issues regarding the (social/political/economic) predicaments faced by the Chinese population. Is it not true that the Chinese people have been and still are being routinely abused and exploited by their government in all sorts of ways? Could all those accounts I hear of -- organ harvesting, Uighur Muslim labor camps etc -- be _fabrications_ by Westerners with ill intentions? If not, then what should the West do regarding these? Turn a blind eye and continue doing business with China as usual? Such questions are not entirely irrelevant to economic concerns. If the Chinese people eventually get sufficiently pissed with the CCP and actually stage a successful coup, how will that affect Chinese society and China's economy, and for that matter the global economy?
I presume that your smallest organ, that's your brain has been harvested?
@@lisa.e5776 There is no need to resort to personal abuse. Let's please keep this discussion civil. If you know of any serious evidence that all the accounts given of what the Chinese people experience are fabrications, just provide the evidence here. No hard feelings.
@@lisa.e5776he's a cyber mercenary.
CIA bot. 😂😂😂😂
@@brianliew5901 No, normal human. Not from CIA. Not even American.
Is he related to Colin Powell? Looks like him. Could be his brother
no
I used to live in union city, NJ . There is a "collin Powell" middle school. It made me sick seeing that name everytime I pass by.
😂
He looks more Asian than Black, dude. 😂
Pascal don't know how to pronounce Warwick even though there is a famous University called University of Warwick, curious.