Heavy, heavy fines will help make it clear to keep the "f" out of the Launch Zone. ( Retired USCG) we routinely flew into the zone with an HC-130 from Air Sta Clearwater (1990's) to help escort vessels out of the way for the shuttle launches and keep the range clear. Word gets out your butt will be fined millions it will put the fear into their pocketbooks.
This guy puts it strongly but I’m afraid its true. Ship captains have a tendency to do whatever they think they can get away with…Truth is he, (let’s call him “Captain X”), knew full well about the launch scheduled to occur (I have no physical proof of this) and was preparing to provide the (paying, no doubt about that, paying) passengers for a cheap thrill, bonus for their otherwise mundane adventure. Ship captains also have a tendency to spend a lot of time NOT manning the bridge, rather delegating piloting and navigation responsibilities to an entirely Philippine crew. These are marvelously capable personnel. They are also miserably paid. They are also tolerant of accepting false blame…Anyway, I have had unpleasant experiences on the water dealing with the United States Coast Guard. These are serious dudes who don’t use their blow horns for the sake of humor. Thank God they’re out there, every last one. I love them, as much as the whole damn Navy. Drunken sailors get a bad rap.
The FAA/Coast Guard should project an exclusion zone on the AIS system before a launch. Large vessels pay close attention to this collision avoidance system, I wouldn't be surprised if they don't read all of the notices that the Coast Guard puts out. There are a lot of these notices and you have to read them very carefully to determine if they are relevant to your ship. Meanwhile the AIS system gives you real-time alerts for the area around your vessel.
An automagic NOTMAR plot in the AIS display would make life a lot easier, yes. I went looking for NOTMARs out of general curiosity after seeing this scrub, and the user interface was not straightforward, and even with experience the text of a notice isn't readily obvious. Ships of this size use course planning software that certainly could do collision/conflict avoidance.
FAA needs to treat it like the commercial launches it is and use the frame work as airlines. Seems to work well. Rockets are just a, now routine, different kind aircraft.
The FAA has the authority to publish the temporary flight restrictions, which are user generated, in other words by spaceX and submitted to the FAA. This helps to keep airmen from flying into those areas. Usually a team of the FAA also monitors the affected airspace, based on the Radar information available to the closest ATC center. However, the FAA does not have the authority nor the means to control/regulate space flight at any altitude. Let alone determine environmental conditions.. That is a constitutional issue, based on the lack of delegated authority to congress (article II ,section 8, regulation of Interstate commerce) amendment 10 reserves all powers, not specifically delegated to congress, to the states or to the people.
Sending out letters to tell ships to not being in an area should be more than enough if they've blatantly disregard this they need to be fined otherwise there is no ramifications to causing millions of dollars worth of delays.
@@Critical-Thinker895 Balance CT, balance. Have you noticed the safe operations of Falcon 9 launches? Remain cautious, but a reduced margin is justified.
@@Critical-Thinker895 I am an engineer. I write procedural operations documents often. Your response is overly simplistic. It's wise to be overly cautious until a system is understood and characterized. Once a significant amount of data is gathered, operational parameters can and should be reevaluated and adjusted to fit the risk. Airplanes flying over highly populated areas of cities is a good example.
The ship entering the area clearly caused a financial loss to SpaceX... ...suing both the shipping company AND the captain personally for consequential loss will concentrate their minds wonderfully. 100 staff for 10 hours at $100/hour is $100,000 and that’s a conservative estimate. Add material costs and legal costs and you’re easily up to $250,000.
Fines need to be levied to cover the cost of the scrub and all organizations need to be compensated. Maybe jobs need to be transferred to competent captains... and others fired.
A hefty $100,000+ fine for commercial operators for violating the zone would help. Cruise ships and commercial transporters will ignore such notices because of profits.
I grew up in the 80's and the 90's during the shuttle launches and I don't ever remember this happening back then and back then I lived in Florida on and off from 82 to 92. I remember there was weather delays or a technical problem but never cause of a plane or cruise ship. My opinion is some people nowadays they don't give a crap about what's going on around them and they are going to do whatever the heck they want and screw everybody else over in the process.
I was sitting on the shoreline in Cocoa/Port St. John with my kids on Sunday waiting for this launch. We were in Florida on an unrelated trip and drove over from Orlando to catch this launch, after it was scrubbed several times due to weather. The weather was finally perfect, I had a great viewing spot to see both the launch and booster RTLS. Then the hold came at :33. I knew it was over, as the launch was “instantaneous”. I was gutted. We had to fly back home to PA the next morning, so there was no option of seeing it Monday. Begrudgingly, I watched it on TV Monday and it was every bit as beautiful as I thought it would be 🥲. The launch scrubbed due to circumstances beyond my control, but that didn’t make it “sting” any less. Then I got to thinking about the launch cadence this year and SpaceX’s desire to put a Starship pad at the Cape. I came to the same conclusion you did - that the sheer amount of space activity at the Cape is going to create “traffic” problems. Within a week there will be three rocket launches from the Cape (two SpaceX and one Astra). Boat and air traffic in Florida is already high to begin with. Trying to maintain a consistent scrub-free launch cadence is going to be a real challenge moving forward. This isn’t launching a space shuttle a few times a year anymore…
What other USCG hazards to navigation bulletins has this cruise ship ignored? Did the USCG broadcast Sécurité? Hopefully, the investigation will reveal these and other questions to avoid recurrence.
I heard this live at the Cape. Trust me everyone was upset, due to the mission being pushed more and more. Oh yeah, and the private aircraft are ALWAYS flying around right before launch. They forget there's an ACTIVE TFR going on in the area.
NASA flys small aircraft around the launch site, and they usually aren’t clearly marked. I’m not saying there aren’t idiots, but not every plane is actually restricted.
June 29th event, the helo did NOT enter the TFR or protected airspace, it lifted of very close to the area but remained clear at all times. Range safety made the call to abort, because track had potential to enter. Next day TFR extended almost 100 NM south along the coast of FL.
Thank you Ellie. I really enjoyed your insight and coverage of the issues brought up with launch delays. There's always that 5% that never get the message!
The cruise ship port is right there at Canaveral. The ships come and go in a channel close to the launch site and they’re on a schedule. This situation is a problem, especially so if the F.A.A. designated range is too large.
Sadly people that have a vested interest in plodding along have the power. And if slowing down the number one launch provider is a side effect, I doubt ULA will get on board to lobby for change. Plodding is what they do best.
But if Nasa and the US Space Force were to join in lobbying for needed changes . Maybe that would speed things up ?! Then again, given that they are subordinate to the govt , I guess they would be very reluctant ( at least publicly ), to get involved .
Ellie, you are deserving of millions of subscribers and soon this will become a reality. I love your intelligently presented content... and always will. OK now for Scott Manley vid! Another one of my favs! (Looking lol)
I mean better connection between naval, airtraffic system make sense. Maybe you or someone could create video on how these exlcussion zones are calculated. I can expect that many rocket failure modes and probabilities are calculated but what about other vessels. Are these zones calculated as everything was static? Is the zone different for each type of vessel? Lets say that airplane could be out of danger zone but due to negligence in 5 minutes after launch it could cross the landing exclusion zone? On the other hand the ship will take only few miles for that 5 minutes.
How large is that clearance area anyway? Maybe its size was decided based on an overly cautious risk assessment that it no longer realistic these days.
These keep getting better and better Ellie! Fine the violators of the restricted space - lose their license to operate if they repeat offend... the pocketbook is always effective. Now let's see - we reached 30K Subs - my prediction for 100K Subs by year end stands!
Alright, PENTAGON give the respect of SPACEX when they have an operation FULL security of PERIMETER, BLUE ORIGIN stop and END the JELOUSY. we work as one aim and one voice in the outer space exploration. Be respectful.
Just how big is the no-go zone? Plus there should be a radio warning to vehicles about to enter the launch zone as big as it may be! In fact the no-go zone should be off limits during a launch! Give the rockets the right of way as they are far more expensive! And ya fine any vehicle captain for the violation. If you say to a captain you will be fined personally if you disrupt a notified scheduled launch, You will be personally fined. this should apply to pilots too!!! flat out!
So, you are fine with less safety? That ship has nearly 10,000 people on board. If the flight termination system rained hardware down on it, it would be a bad day, especially if people were on deck to watch the launch.
My gut feeling is that this needs to be done using up-to-date technology. A beacon transmission system is my thought. A designated frequency with a built in digital system that is cheap and easy to incorporate into existing Airline systems and maybe a separate one for Shipping systems. The 'Rocket Company' (It does not matter who it is) set's up the transmitter at their designated launch site and transmits days ahead on one code. The receiving modules get a voice warning that a launch is due in over 24 hours time. Then when it is less than 24hrs, the code is changed and a voice warning gives less than 24hrs to launch. By doing this, regular flights or ships in the area (within range of the signal) start to get some awareness of a pending launch. As the day approach's, they adjust their travel accordingly and it will not be an 'out of the ordinary' surprise for them. The code within 2 hours of launch, gives a warning to move out of the designated area. This 'Bubble Of Warning' does not totally rely on the passive system of NO-TAM having to be read. It is active and not invasive. I am sure it would not be too hard to develop with the smart electronics radio engineers out there today.
A point no one has raised here is that ALL cruise ships enter and leave Port Canaveral, and any other US port for that matter, with a local port pilot on board. Those port pilots are local, they are specialists in their port, they are US citizens licensed by the US Coast Guard unlike the foreign officers on the ship. A port pilot is IN COMMAND of a ship as it enters and leaves a port. A Canaveral Port Pilot would be well versed in the restricted zones for the cape missile launches. This launch was different however. This was apparently the first southbound polar launch out of the Cape since the 1960's so the restricted area would have looked much different than it normally does, This ship appears to have been departing so a pilot from the Canaveral Pilots Association would have been aboard when the ship left the dock and would have been aboard until the ship was at sea, clear of the channel. So the cruise ship company made a mistake and the expert on board, the Canaveral Port Pilot, made a mistake. There will be an USCG investigation. It will be interesting to see the results of that. My bet will be that the Pilot did make a mistake and will get his license suspended BUT like any aviation or marine investigation there will be several contributing factors. I'm willing to bet that the investigation will show plenty of mistakes made on the part of the FAA and the Coast Guard and that they had some culpability here.
Remember the swarm of small private boats that were in safety zone when Bob and Doug splashed down? What were they thinking? With all that possible residue of hypergolic fuel from crew dragon, probably not much.
Hi Ellie, Any intel on Starlink subscribers that paid the $99 and are awaiting equipment? We've been on the wait list 8 months already so standing pat and just wondering if you knew something on milestones coming up? Thanks for any help if you can.
I don't to appear flippant but it seems odd to me that 1) jet planes take off in all sorts of inclement weather yet much more powerful rockets seem incapable of - is this something that can be overcome with better design? 2) Tesla AI can navigate their cars through a bewildering array of obstacles, even those coming directly at you. Are rockets unable to navigate around incoming air traffic or is this something that can be built in to reduce the need for such a large safe area?
I'm not an expert by any means, but the speeds are so much greater that static electricity buildup is huge and stuff can explode. Airliners have many static electricity discharge antennas at the trailing edge of the wings to remove it. I'd guess you can't put them at the bottom next to the rocket engines. Clouds cause static buildup at a multiplied rate.
No they can't steer round incoming air traffic as the flight path is calculated precisely so that the required orbit is reached. If you're off it costs a load of fuel to correct the orbit the further you are into the flight.
I would be willing to bet that the cruise ship's captain thought it would be neat to get their passengers a closer look at the launch (they read the NOTAMS daily if not hourly). I don't think the regulations were written with multiple space launches in mind. They need to be updated. Meanwhile, I'm hoping that for every starlink launch, Elon will hire a sub with missiles and anti-aircraft guns to keep the window open. I can't take any more delays in getting reliable internet!!!
Cruise companies have probably started offering views of the launch facility on their itineraries. Just start fining the cruise ship companies for entering restricted areas. They'll stop turning up.
I think the ability to sue violators of safety areas is important. It won’t cover the cost of delayed launches, and shouldn’t be used to bankrupt violators, but it should be strong enough to act as a meaningful deterrent. I mean a guy a helicopter not checking NOTAMs is one thing, but a large organisation like Royal Caribbean not checking NMs against the schedules routes of major cruise ships with capacities of thousands of passengers, is unforgivable!
The intruders should simply pay for the cost that they are causing. It wouldn't be cheap. And a hefty fine on top of course. And there should be something like a warning zone where the intruders get a warning and they need to move out.
You should have investigated, the ship was probably booking launch viewing excursions. Maybe red blinking lights, horn honking buoys, run by solar should be placed and set to go off 4 hours ahead of schedule. Fines levied, licenses suspended. Or drones with Bull horns.
ULA agent: “Hey, I have this stuffed envelope... it would be a real shame if you accidentally entered this particular restricted area at this particular time...”.
Time to adjust the hazard zone, and penalize those that are in the area. FAA needs a reboot to fix limits regarding "danger zones" based on 1960's tech.
Comments like this need to come with a warning label. "Caution MuskRat Alert". Regardless of what Musk tha God says, it's not based on 1960's tech. It's based on gravity (hasn't changed since the 1960's) and the fact that launch failures fall in a downward motion endangering things below. And if anyone knows about launch failure, it's Musk. That's how he does his R&D. Musk has a hard time playing nice with other people.
This need to be handle the same way blocking maritime trade is in my country the offender gets a bill for the damages in this case 60 million dollars individual would just go bankrupt and companies would not do it twice.
We also need to launch in bad weather. There's more delays due to bad weather than range issues. It could be done, aircraft do it all the time. It's just engineering 😀
IMO SpaceX needs to actively lobby the Gov't for FAA legislation changes. Perhaps he can get the other Spaceflight companies to join them as a group (including NASA). That's how it works doesn't it? You need to Lobby for change. That's what private citizens have done successfully in the past for various things. I'm sure SpaceX is already actively working on this however. Musk is probably just frustrated at the speed such a change is progressing at. Too much red tape!
…yeah well I can’t look there because its too soon post-surgery and it makes my stomach all butterfly-ish. I feel bad for missing you last Sunday. I almost went. It was just my abdominal plumbing that I wasn’t trusting; turns out everything was just fine. I am detoxed and my stomach is late to agree. Laughing can hurt a little. Whew, what an escapade…that’s over now…that was. SF is four hours from me; next time your dinner dates are confirmed booked, If I have a say. But those are genuine blue, huh. Next time maybe I could drive you back to Utah in time for the (morning, is it?) news. I got a Subaru if you can stand it, we’ll stop for a overnight-er at Zion, for sure. I’ve got the Hilleberg Kaitum 3 and a couple bags. Real blue. If there’s an extra day we could try for Observation Point or Dear Trap Landing, (two extra days for that one, I’ll need.) West Rim I could do as a same day, if we are turning back at the high campsites…That’s even scarier than I was thinking, as I was thinking they were sky blue eye-pasties, you know, the little dealie-s they make for human cat girls. Was i dreaming that? A lot of this is a blurr, Jeeze. I still can’t look. You mean to tell me there’s no electricity powering those…honest-to-god…blue bulbs. Who knew. See, there goes my avoidance disorder again; tower, we are losing control. One thing we can both count on, and counting, …the control thing, …never mind. I repeat, I’m better. I need to trip take a. Yet…Wait! To hell with waiting for next time. I’m making up my mind right now: I’m going to Boca Chica. Tell me that’s the place. That’s it. To hell with slow. I’ve never seen a launch. I don’t know anything. I’ll start packing after breakfast for practice and I don’t care, I’m going. I better start pull ups. My, my…No you can’t see my scar. Just show me the rocket. Time for mark marco to show up. And to figure out what WhatsApp means. It doesn’t feel safe but then adventures shouldn’t do no danger no risk anyway. Mark out. Climb safe. Maybe when this is over we’ll be going for a hundred thousand…All we need is one more zero.
that devision of the FAA should be more regulated by the government. it should have experts from all compnaies give an esimate of the area they feel is needed and go from there. Then they can change the regulations. I would also point out that the areas should always be regulated seeing there are explosive chemicals there so I wold say Florida is a different issue the aouth Texas. With regards to Texas I say light the candle and and let it fly the wild life will move or adapt his darwins ideas.
Restructure the FAA entirely. If you leave it up to the FAA, it will never happen. All they will do is pick at it for years while protecting their own like every other government agency.
Take away regulatory authority from the FAA and give it to a new agency. The FAA should have a secondary role; only a small portion of any flight has anything of concern to the FAA: Airspace under 50,000' (I'm pretty sure that above that is under military control). It's not the damned Federal Aviation and Astronautics Acgency.
SpaceX intends to keep increasing its launch tempo. It's just a matter of time before range clearance won't be a scheduled thing, but continuous. Having very large range clearance areas is an artifact of the 1960's, when launches were a pretty new thing and planners decided to err on the side of caution. But accidents affecting range clearance areas have been extremely rare. After liftoff, the rocket stack clears the range clearance area in seconds; most mishaps happen further out from the launch pad. Mishaps aren't very dangerous there, either. US launches are routed over water to avoid populated areas, and the odds of debris striking a boat or ship at sea, in or out of the range clearance area, are vanishingly small. I do think FAA should shrink the range clearance areas around launch sites, both because acceptable safety can be achieved with smaller ranges, and because smaller range clearance areas will free up more areas for public use. I'll side with Elon on this one.
Irrespective of what anyone thinks the safety area should be, the ships captain was notified that he was in theRed Zone and chose to ignore it so his passengers could watch the launch. In my view he should lose his masters ticket.
@@sadiqmohamed681 Agreed. This could be a marketing ploy. Cruise lines could specifically put their ships where the people could see the rockets better. I would go on a cruise ship that gets near a rocket launch/return.
@@markhorton3994 What is their to prove? The ship, like nearly all commercial shipping today, has a transponder to announce its position. The USCG were talking to it as soon as it became obvious where it course would take it. On of the fan channels that live streamed the launch spotted the ship and started listening to the Coast Guard channel and reporting what was going on. So there are real time recordings of the radio conversations, and the position of the ship.
@@sadiqmohamed681 Intent has yet to be proven. But you're absolutely right that the captain navigated his ship into a prohibited zone during a prohibited time. Regardless of his intention, he committed an infraction no captain should ever commit. I expect there will be consequences for the captain, but that's a separate matter. Advocating for smaller exclusion zones is not advocacy for leniency for violators.
I was just north of the Cocoa Beach pier having a WTF moment when this ship came out of the port. Particularly with the dogleg along-the-coast trajectory the exclusion zone was much closer in, but these bozos couldn't wait ten minutes.
That ship only had a 1-10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 chance of being hit by this rocket even if the rocket blew up. it has more danger from a rouge wave or storm the FAA has to start getting real and do more real threat analysis. Ok get all the ships out of the water because of a 1-10,000 chance that ships sink? That is how silly this is.
They should permanently close Port Canaveral to cruise ships and impound large vessels that violate the temporary closure notice. To release from impound, a fee of $1 million should be imposed. Not just SpaceX is having these problems.
Heavy, heavy fines will help make it clear to keep the "f" out of the Launch Zone. ( Retired USCG) we routinely flew into the zone with an HC-130 from Air Sta Clearwater (1990's) to help escort vessels out of the way for the shuttle launches and keep the range clear. Word gets out your butt will be fined millions it will put the fear into their pocketbooks.
Maybe toss in some quality time in a "don't drop the soap" prison for putting their passengers at ris?
This guy puts it strongly but I’m afraid its true. Ship captains have a tendency to do whatever they think they can get away with…Truth is he, (let’s call him “Captain X”), knew full well about the launch scheduled to occur (I have no physical proof of this) and was preparing to provide the (paying, no doubt about that, paying) passengers for a cheap thrill, bonus for their otherwise mundane adventure. Ship captains also have a tendency to spend a lot of time NOT manning the bridge, rather delegating piloting and navigation responsibilities to an entirely Philippine crew. These are marvelously capable personnel. They are also miserably paid. They are also tolerant of accepting false blame…Anyway, I have had unpleasant experiences on the water dealing with the United States Coast Guard. These are serious dudes who don’t use their blow horns for the sake of humor. Thank God they’re out there, every last one. I love them, as much as the whole damn Navy. Drunken sailors get a bad rap.
Oh yeah, I am most definitely interested in seeing the Manley report!
The FAA/Coast Guard should project an exclusion zone on the AIS system before a launch. Large vessels pay close attention to this collision avoidance system, I wouldn't be surprised if they don't read all of the notices that the Coast Guard puts out. There are a lot of these notices and you have to read them very carefully to determine if they are relevant to your ship. Meanwhile the AIS system gives you real-time alerts for the area around your vessel.
If the fine is big enough they will get read.
An automagic NOTMAR plot in the AIS display would make life a lot easier, yes. I went looking for NOTMARs out of general curiosity after seeing this scrub, and the user interface was not straightforward, and even with experience the text of a notice isn't readily obvious. Ships of this size use course planning software that certainly could do collision/conflict avoidance.
FAA needs to treat it like the commercial launches it is and use the frame work as airlines. Seems to work well. Rockets are just a, now routine, different kind aircraft.
The FAA has the authority to publish the temporary flight restrictions, which are user generated, in other words by spaceX and submitted to the FAA. This helps to keep airmen from flying into those areas. Usually a team of the FAA also monitors the affected airspace, based on the Radar information available to the closest ATC center.
However, the FAA does not have the authority nor the means to control/regulate space flight at any altitude. Let alone determine environmental conditions..
That is a constitutional issue, based on the lack of delegated authority to congress (article II ,section 8, regulation of Interstate commerce) amendment 10 reserves all powers, not specifically delegated to congress, to the states or to the people.
@@arturoeugster7228 Did not know air travel was as ICC issue. Interesting and thanks.
Sending out letters to tell ships to not being in an area should be more than enough if they've blatantly disregard this they need to be fined otherwise there is no ramifications to causing millions of dollars worth of delays.
I agree100%.👍👍
Reduce the zone drastically, stiff fines for entering that reduced zone.
Yea we don't need to worry about stinking safety. We're Elon Musk!
@@Critical-Thinker895 Balance CT, balance. Have you noticed the safe operations of Falcon 9 launches? Remain cautious, but a reduced margin is justified.
@@DD2DL We don't determine the safety area on the impatience of you or Elon Musk. Are you a safety officer? No you're not.
@@Critical-Thinker895 I am an engineer. I write procedural operations documents often. Your response is overly simplistic. It's wise to be overly cautious until a system is understood and characterized. Once a significant amount of data is gathered, operational parameters can and should be reevaluated and adjusted to fit the risk. Airplanes flying over highly populated areas of cities is a good example.
The ship entering the area clearly caused a financial loss to SpaceX...
...suing both the shipping company AND the captain personally for consequential loss will concentrate their minds wonderfully.
100 staff for 10 hours at $100/hour is $100,000 and that’s a conservative estimate.
Add material costs and legal costs and you’re easily up to $250,000.
Fines need to be levied to cover the cost of the scrub and all organizations need to be compensated. Maybe jobs need to be transferred to competent captains... and others fired.
A hefty $100,000+ fine for commercial operators for violating the zone would help. Cruise ships and commercial transporters will ignore such notices because of profits.
If I were SpaceX, I'd consider a civil suit for damages
Great episode, as always! Really looking forward to the Scott Manley vid :)
I grew up in the 80's and the 90's during the shuttle launches and I don't ever remember this happening back then and back then I lived in Florida on and off from 82 to 92. I remember there was weather delays or a technical problem but never cause of a plane or cruise ship. My opinion is some people nowadays they don't give a crap about what's going on around them and they are going to do whatever the heck they want and screw everybody else over in the process.
The cruise ship captain cheated his passengers out of a fantastic view of the launch so now he has even more people pissed at him.
I was sitting on the shoreline in Cocoa/Port St. John with my kids on Sunday waiting for this launch. We were in Florida on an unrelated trip and drove over from Orlando to catch this launch, after it was scrubbed several times due to weather. The weather was finally perfect, I had a great viewing spot to see both the launch and booster RTLS. Then the hold came at :33. I knew it was over, as the launch was “instantaneous”. I was gutted. We had to fly back home to PA the next morning, so there was no option of seeing it Monday. Begrudgingly, I watched it on TV Monday and it was every bit as beautiful as I thought it would be 🥲. The launch scrubbed due to circumstances beyond my control, but that didn’t make it “sting” any less.
Then I got to thinking about the launch cadence this year and SpaceX’s desire to put a Starship pad at the Cape. I came to the same conclusion you did - that the sheer amount of space activity at the Cape is going to create “traffic” problems. Within a week there will be three rocket launches from the Cape (two SpaceX and one Astra). Boat and air traffic in Florida is already high to begin with. Trying to maintain a consistent scrub-free launch cadence is going to be a real challenge moving forward. This isn’t launching a space shuttle a few times a year anymore…
What other USCG hazards to navigation bulletins has this cruise ship ignored? Did the USCG broadcast Sécurité? Hopefully, the investigation will reveal these and other questions to avoid recurrence.
I heard this live at the Cape. Trust me everyone was upset, due to the mission being pushed more and more.
Oh yeah, and the private aircraft are ALWAYS flying around right before launch. They forget there's an ACTIVE TFR going on in the area.
NASA flys small aircraft around the launch site, and they usually aren’t clearly marked.
I’m not saying there aren’t idiots, but not every plane is actually restricted.
June 29th event, the helo did NOT enter the TFR or protected airspace, it lifted of very close to the area but remained clear at all times. Range safety made the call to abort, because track had potential to enter. Next day TFR extended almost 100 NM south along the coast of FL.
Ellie, your show is absolutely great, both in information and in quality. You do an absolutely incredible job. Big fan!
Thank you Ellie. I really enjoyed your insight and coverage of the issues brought up with launch delays. There's always that 5% that never get the message!
The cruise ship port is right there at Canaveral. The ships come and go in a channel close to the launch site and they’re on a schedule. This situation is a problem, especially so if the F.A.A. designated range is too large.
And she hits 30,000 subscribers.....Go Ellie!
How mutch propellant was wasted and what was the cost involved.
I live on the space coast and recall many launches scrubbed from the range being fouled by boat or light aircraft
Sadly people that have a vested interest in plodding along have the power. And if slowing down the number one launch provider is a side effect, I doubt ULA will get on board to lobby for change. Plodding is what they do best.
But if Nasa and the US Space Force were to join in lobbying for needed changes . Maybe that would speed things up ?!
Then again, given that they are subordinate to the govt , I guess they would be very reluctant ( at least publicly ), to get involved .
Great video Ellie as always!
BTW watched the launch. And the weather was AWESOME!!!!
Listened live on AM 1240
Notam to ship to inform ahead of the launch sche. Of those restricted areas
Ellie, you are deserving of millions of subscribers and soon this will become a reality.
I love your intelligently presented content... and always will. OK now for Scott Manley vid! Another one of my favs! (Looking lol)
I mean better connection between naval, airtraffic system make sense. Maybe you or someone could create video on how these exlcussion zones are calculated. I can expect that many rocket failure modes and probabilities are calculated but what about other vessels. Are these zones calculated as everything was static? Is the zone different for each type of vessel? Lets say that airplane could be out of danger zone but due to negligence in 5 minutes after launch it could cross the landing exclusion zone? On the other hand the ship will take only few miles for that 5 minutes.
How large is that clearance area anyway? Maybe its size was decided based on an overly cautious risk assessment that it no longer realistic these days.
These keep getting better and better Ellie! Fine the violators of the restricted space - lose their license to operate if they repeat offend... the pocketbook is always effective. Now let's see - we reached 30K Subs - my prediction for 100K Subs by year end stands!
Alright, PENTAGON give the respect of SPACEX when they have an operation FULL security of PERIMETER, BLUE ORIGIN stop and END the JELOUSY. we work as one aim and one voice in the outer space exploration. Be respectful.
Just how big is the no-go zone? Plus there should be a radio warning to vehicles about to enter the launch zone as big as it may be! In fact the no-go zone should be off limits during a launch! Give the rockets the right of way as they are far more expensive! And ya fine any vehicle captain for the violation. If you say to a captain you will be fined personally if you disrupt a notified scheduled launch, You will be personally fined. this should apply to pilots too!!! flat out!
Sue the safety area violators. After a few this will stop
Ellie your so diplomatic. I would say that a ship entering the launch exclusion zone was a stupid reason to have to abort a launch!
Yes, tell the FAA about it.
So, you are fine with less safety? That ship has nearly 10,000 people on board. If the flight termination system rained hardware down on it, it would be a bad day, especially if people were on deck to watch the launch.
My gut feeling is that this needs to be done using up-to-date technology. A beacon transmission system is my thought. A designated frequency with a built in digital system that is cheap and easy to incorporate into existing Airline systems and maybe a separate one for Shipping systems.
The 'Rocket Company' (It does not matter who it is) set's up the transmitter at their designated launch site and transmits days ahead on one code.
The receiving modules get a voice warning that a launch is due in over 24 hours time. Then when it is less than 24hrs, the code is changed and a voice warning gives less than 24hrs to launch.
By doing this, regular flights or ships in the area (within range of the signal) start to get some awareness of a pending launch.
As the day approach's, they adjust their travel accordingly and it will not be an 'out of the ordinary' surprise for them.
The code within 2 hours of launch, gives a warning to move out of the designated area.
This 'Bubble Of Warning' does not totally rely on the passive system of NO-TAM having to be read. It is active and not invasive. I am sure it would not be too hard to develop with the smart electronics radio engineers out there today.
I saw a shuttle launch from an airliner .....routine flight.
Would not be surprised if BZ head paid the cruise ship captain! :)
Ellie, how close is your Logo to the Logo of the Game: Federation?
What is the fine for violating a launch area? Make it high enough and it won't happen.
A point no one has raised here is that ALL cruise ships enter and leave Port Canaveral, and any other US port for that matter, with a local port pilot on board. Those port pilots are local, they are specialists in their port, they are US citizens licensed by the US Coast Guard unlike the foreign officers on the ship. A port pilot is IN COMMAND of a ship as it enters and leaves a port. A Canaveral Port Pilot would be well versed in the restricted zones for the cape missile launches. This launch was different however. This was apparently the first southbound polar launch out of the Cape since the 1960's so the restricted area would have looked much different than it normally does, This ship appears to have been departing so a pilot from the Canaveral Pilots Association would have been aboard when the ship left the dock and would have been aboard until the ship was at sea, clear of the channel. So the cruise ship company made a mistake and the expert on board, the Canaveral Port Pilot, made a mistake. There will be an USCG investigation. It will be interesting to see the results of that. My bet will be that the Pilot did make a mistake and will get his license suspended BUT like any aviation or marine investigation there will be several contributing factors. I'm willing to bet that the investigation will show plenty of mistakes made on the part of the FAA and the Coast Guard and that they had some culpability here.
I didn’t realize there was a launch. When it got canx I was able to see it in south Florida. It was amazing. E when are you coming to Palm Beach?
🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼
Remember the swarm of small private boats that were in safety zone when Bob and Doug splashed down?
What were they thinking? With all that possible residue of hypergolic fuel from crew dragon, probably not much.
Thanks for bringing this point up - the regulation seems more based on the Space Shuttle days. Did the cruise ship get a fine ?
How far away was it? How reasonable is that?
Why not NASA rather than FAA?
Harmony of the Seas
Hi Ellie,
Any intel on Starlink subscribers that paid the $99 and are awaiting equipment? We've been on the wait list 8 months already so standing pat and just wondering if you knew something on milestones coming up? Thanks for any help if you can.
I don't to appear flippant but it seems odd to me that 1) jet planes take off in all sorts of inclement weather yet much more powerful rockets seem incapable of - is this something that can be overcome with better design? 2) Tesla AI can navigate their cars through a bewildering array of obstacles, even those coming directly at you. Are rockets unable to navigate around incoming air traffic or is this something that can be built in to reduce the need for such a large safe area?
I'm not an expert by any means, but the speeds are so much greater that static electricity buildup is huge and stuff can explode.
Airliners have many static electricity discharge antennas at the trailing edge of the wings to remove it. I'd guess you can't put them at the bottom next to the rocket engines.
Clouds cause static buildup at a multiplied rate.
No they can't steer round incoming air traffic as the flight path is calculated precisely so that the required orbit is reached. If you're off it costs a load of fuel to correct the orbit the further you are into the flight.
So, has this, historically, been an issue with NASA launches for the last 50 years or is the issue unique to SpaceX ??
THE REGULAIONS FOR LAND IS COUNTY,STATE,FED.,UN.
I would be willing to bet that the cruise ship's captain thought it would be neat to get their passengers a closer look at the launch (they read the NOTAMS daily if not hourly). I don't think the regulations were written with multiple space launches in mind. They need to be updated. Meanwhile, I'm hoping that for every starlink launch, Elon will hire a sub with missiles and anti-aircraft guns to keep the window open. I can't take any more delays in getting reliable internet!!!
How much does a scrubbed Falcon 9 launch due to red range cost SpaceX ? Can SpaceX sue the perp for reimbursement?
What is the history of such incidents & what penalties & sanctions are imposed when they occur? If none or inadequate, they are guaranteed to recur.
I just wonder how much it costs to reset a launch. 🤷♂
Cruise companies have probably started offering views of the launch facility on their itineraries.
Just start fining the cruise ship companies for entering restricted areas. They'll stop turning up.
Maybe they had an Amazon delivery.
It will never be fixed…. Might be time for Spacex to find a new home….
Post Script: Ellie, I don’t what it is exactly but you look great in blue.
Why thank you!!! It matches the eyes 😎😎😎
I think the ability to sue violators of safety areas is important. It won’t cover the cost of delayed launches, and shouldn’t be used to bankrupt violators, but it should be strong enough to act as a meaningful deterrent. I mean a guy a helicopter not checking NOTAMs is one thing, but a large organisation like Royal Caribbean not checking NMs against the schedules routes of major cruise ships with capacities of thousands of passengers, is unforgivable!
The intruders should simply pay for the cost that they are causing. It wouldn't be cheap. And a hefty fine on top of course.
And there should be something like a warning zone where the intruders get a warning and they need to move out.
You should have investigated, the ship was probably booking launch viewing excursions.
Maybe red blinking lights, horn honking buoys, run by solar should be placed and set to go off 4 hours ahead of schedule. Fines levied, licenses suspended. Or drones with Bull horns.
ULA agent: “Hey, I have this stuffed envelope... it would be a real shame if you accidentally entered this particular restricted area at this particular time...”.
Space x will need to learn they are not in charge.
Thousands of Airliners takeoff and land every day
Just look at San Diego !!
Airport middle city
Time to adjust the hazard zone, and penalize those that are in the area. FAA needs a reboot to fix limits regarding "danger zones" based on 1960's tech.
Comments like this need to come with a warning label. "Caution MuskRat Alert". Regardless of what Musk tha God says, it's not based on 1960's tech. It's based on gravity (hasn't changed since the 1960's) and the fact that launch failures fall in a downward motion endangering things below. And if anyone knows about launch failure, it's Musk. That's how he does his R&D. Musk has a hard time playing nice with other people.
i give the GREEN LIGHT to SPACEX under authorization of NASA and PENTAGON, no need to get JELOUSE.
Good insight . We need more better regulation regulation . To Elon’s health ! 🥂
This need to be handle the same way blocking maritime trade is in my country the offender gets a bill for the damages in this case 60 million dollars individual would just go bankrupt and companies would not do it twice.
They should be charged fines for coming into safety zones
We also need to launch in bad weather. There's more delays due to bad weather than range issues. It could be done, aircraft do it all the time. It's just engineering 😀
How about a fine for entering a launch zone?
IMO SpaceX needs to actively lobby the Gov't for FAA legislation changes. Perhaps he can get the other Spaceflight companies to join them as a group (including NASA). That's how it works doesn't it? You need to Lobby for change. That's what private citizens have done successfully in the past for various things. I'm sure SpaceX is already actively working on this however. Musk is probably just frustrated at the speed such a change is progressing at. Too much red tape!
Fine Royal Caribbean one million dollars for violating the restricted space.
…yeah well I can’t look there because its too soon post-surgery and it makes my stomach all butterfly-ish. I feel bad for missing you last Sunday. I almost went. It was just my abdominal plumbing that I wasn’t trusting; turns out everything was just fine. I am detoxed and my stomach is late to agree. Laughing can hurt a little. Whew, what an escapade…that’s over now…that was. SF is four hours from me; next time your dinner dates are confirmed booked, If I have a say. But those are genuine blue, huh. Next time maybe I could drive you back to Utah in time for the (morning, is it?) news. I got a Subaru if you can stand it, we’ll stop for a overnight-er at Zion, for sure. I’ve got the Hilleberg Kaitum 3 and a couple bags. Real blue. If there’s an extra day we could try for Observation Point or Dear Trap Landing, (two extra days for that one, I’ll need.) West Rim I could do as a same day, if we are turning back at the high campsites…That’s even scarier than I was thinking, as I was thinking they were sky blue eye-pasties, you know, the little dealie-s they make for human cat girls. Was i dreaming that? A lot of this is a blurr, Jeeze. I still can’t look. You mean to tell me there’s no electricity powering those…honest-to-god…blue bulbs. Who knew. See, there goes my avoidance disorder again; tower, we are losing control. One thing we can both count on, and counting, …the control thing, …never mind. I repeat, I’m better. I need to trip take a. Yet…Wait! To hell with waiting for next time. I’m making up my mind right now: I’m going to Boca Chica. Tell me that’s the place. That’s it. To hell with slow. I’ve never seen a launch. I don’t know anything. I’ll start packing after breakfast for practice and I don’t care, I’m going. I better start pull ups. My, my…No you can’t see my scar. Just show me the rocket. Time for mark marco to show up. And to figure out what WhatsApp means. It doesn’t feel safe but then adventures shouldn’t do no danger no risk anyway. Mark out. Climb safe. Maybe when this is over we’ll be going for a hundred thousand…All we need is one more zero.
I think Elon Musk should start a PAC top lobby FAA and Congress for fair rules.
that devision of the FAA should be more regulated by the government. it should have experts from all compnaies give an esimate of the area they feel is needed and go from there. Then they can change the regulations. I would also point out that the areas should always be regulated seeing there are explosive chemicals there so I wold say Florida is a different issue the aouth Texas. With regards to Texas I say light the candle and and let it fly the wild life will move or adapt his darwins ideas.
Restructure the FAA entirely. If you leave it up to the FAA, it will never happen. All they will do is pick at it for years while protecting their own like every other government agency.
Take away regulatory authority from the FAA and give it to a new agency. The FAA should have a secondary role; only a small portion of any flight has anything of concern to the FAA: Airspace under 50,000' (I'm pretty sure that above that is under military control). It's not the damned Federal Aviation and Astronautics Acgency.
I enjoy the videos but my phone keep smoking there's definitely something hot here
Wouldn't want a pesky cruiseship to be near the final destination for the phallus rocket (erhmm, the Atlantic Ocean)
SpaceX intends to keep increasing its launch tempo. It's just a matter of time before range clearance won't be a scheduled thing, but continuous.
Having very large range clearance areas is an artifact of the 1960's, when launches were a pretty new thing and planners decided to err on the side of caution. But accidents affecting range clearance areas have been extremely rare. After liftoff, the rocket stack clears the range clearance area in seconds; most mishaps happen further out from the launch pad.
Mishaps aren't very dangerous there, either. US launches are routed over water to avoid populated areas, and the odds of debris striking a boat or ship at sea, in or out of the range clearance area, are vanishingly small.
I do think FAA should shrink the range clearance areas around launch sites, both because acceptable safety can be achieved with smaller ranges, and because smaller range clearance areas will free up more areas for public use. I'll side with Elon on this one.
Irrespective of what anyone thinks the safety area should be, the ships captain was notified that he was in theRed Zone and chose to ignore it so his passengers could watch the launch. In my view he should lose his masters ticket.
@@sadiqmohamed681 Agreed. This could be a marketing ploy. Cruise lines could specifically put their ships where the people could see the rockets better.
I would go on a cruise ship that gets near a rocket launch/return.
@@sadiqmohamed681 If proven.
@@markhorton3994 What is their to prove? The ship, like nearly all commercial shipping today, has a transponder to announce its position. The USCG were talking to it as soon as it became obvious where it course would take it. On of the fan channels that live streamed the launch spotted the ship and started listening to the Coast Guard channel and reporting what was going on. So there are real time recordings of the radio conversations, and the position of the ship.
@@sadiqmohamed681 Intent has yet to be proven.
But you're absolutely right that the captain navigated his ship into a prohibited zone during a prohibited time. Regardless of his intention, he committed an infraction no captain should ever commit.
I expect there will be consequences for the captain, but that's a separate matter.
Advocating for smaller exclusion zones is not advocacy for leniency for violators.
Ship must be owned by GM!
Launch scrubbed due to a floating petri dish in the range? Send them the bill.
I say charge Royal Carribean (and the helicopter pilot) for the delay! THAT might wake them up!
come and launch your rockets here in Australia - very few ships in the desert.
I would *hope* that there are really substantial fines, and a portion *should* go to compensate the launch provider for the expenses incurred.
I wonder how much a scrub costs to SpaceX, guess it's a big bucket of bucks poured down the toilet.
It should be not an problem to create an no fly zone around the launch pads for few hours a day. 🤷♂️🤦♂️
Horney trying to killme I'm force in elsewhere? What's the pro?
Welcome to public space Musk. You knew what you were getting into.
Just go for the money. A brutal fine stops this forever.
Make the violator pay the cost of the delay
I was just north of the Cocoa Beach pier having a WTF moment when this ship came out of the port. Particularly with the dogleg along-the-coast trajectory the exclusion zone was much closer in, but these bozos couldn't wait ten minutes.
This isn’t a Government launch where the rocket could go anywhere, let SpaceX self regulate.
That ship only had a 1-10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 chance of being hit by this rocket even if the rocket blew up. it has more danger from a rouge wave or storm the FAA has to start getting real and do more real threat analysis. Ok get all the ships out of the water because of a 1-10,000 chance that ships sink? That is how silly this is.
they should start the rockets from Cuba 😂
Fine the ship 100m. If not sue them.
My big hazard zone of consideration is Elon launching a spy rocket thus embracing the military industrial complex when he could have said no.
They should permanently close Port Canaveral to cruise ships and impound large vessels that violate the temporary closure notice. To release from impound, a fee of $1 million should be imposed. Not just SpaceX is having these problems.
@@ulrikhansen7940 Hey! That's a better idea. I like it.
In fact, the ship's captain had sold tickets to see the launch of the starlink satellites up close. Now he has to reimburse all the passengers
If that's true the captain was the cause of the scrubbed mission and he did it on purpose the cruise ship company and the captain could be fined.
@@ronnydowdy7432 No no, it was just a joke 😀
Jeff Besos low key payed the ship captain to enter the restricted zone.. jk. i have no proof of that.