I Agree! It is a Player Sponsored League! The players should make the rules! At least top 10 get $100K than the rest in 1st place pot. This is my 1st year hearing about Survivor and your pod cast. Ty!
Novice here. How would you hedge in the survivor if you were one of those 10? Let’s say you just wanted to lock up 20k. They give you a line of credit and you just make bets against your picks each week?
In very rough numbers.... Basically, but it is tough if there are possibly 4 picking weeks left. Lets say you take a team that is favored each week, and you bet the money line the other way on a 2-1 underdg (which they often will not be) as a hedge, and you want to hedge to make 30K. SO this week you bet 15K to win 30K. I your survivor pick wins, you lose the hedge. Ok, you are now into the contest for 16K. Next week, you need to hedge again, since if you stop, and your survivor team loses, you would otherwise have lost 16K! So now you have to bet about 24K (which will pay 48K, 15 of which covers your loss last week, netting you 33K). OK so if your survivor pick wins again (meaning your hedge lost) , and you are lucky enough to get another 2-1 hedge, you now need to bet enough to cover the 39K you already lost, plus enough to net 30K, so you have to bet about 35K etc...Not, just for these 3 hedges alone, and assuming you are getting 2-1 each time (we hedged at points getting only +130 last year), you still need about 75K in liquid cash to lock up at least a 30K win....And note, in survivor ties lose, so you also need to bet the tie on the hedge, or you can lose survivor and not get any cash back. Taken to an extreme, if you are only getting +150 on the hedges, you will spend a LOT more, and by the end, it might become hard to get the last hedge bet down. It might be 1MM over 6 weeks! So like a lot of things....easier said than done! Now with a maximum of 2 picking weeks left, it is a lot easier and cheaper. Personally I think 2-3 weeks left is the sweet spot to hedge. Anything longer than that is simply too hard. Inteestingly, I am less concerned with how many players are left and more concerned with the number of weeks. If you told me that after week 2 there were only 2 of us left, that sounds great, but having to potentially hedge for 18 more picks would be impossible to get the last few bets down (the exponential nature would make those last bets too large). But if you tell me there are 100 people left with 2 weeks to go, I just hedge as if the prize is 90k etc...Far easier
I Agree! It is a Player Sponsored League! The players should make the rules! At least top 10 get $100K than the rest in 1st place pot. This is my 1st year hearing about Survivor and your pod cast. Ty!
Yes, 1st year doing the pod, appreciate the comment and follow!
Novice here. How would you hedge in the survivor if you were one of those 10? Let’s say you just wanted to lock up 20k. They give you a line of credit and you just make bets against your picks each week?
In very rough numbers....
Basically, but it is tough if there are possibly 4 picking weeks left. Lets say you take a team that is favored each week, and you bet the money line the other way on a 2-1 underdg (which they often will not be) as a hedge, and you want to hedge to make 30K. SO this week you bet 15K to win 30K. I your survivor pick wins, you lose the hedge. Ok, you are now into the contest for 16K. Next week, you need to hedge again, since if you stop, and your survivor team loses, you would otherwise have lost 16K! So now you have to bet about 24K (which will pay 48K, 15 of which covers your loss last week, netting you 33K).
OK so if your survivor pick wins again (meaning your hedge lost) , and you are lucky enough to get another 2-1 hedge, you now need to bet enough to cover the 39K you already lost, plus enough to net 30K, so you have to bet about 35K etc...Not, just for these 3 hedges alone, and assuming you are getting 2-1 each time (we hedged at points getting only +130 last year), you still need about 75K in liquid cash to lock up at least a 30K win....And note, in survivor ties lose, so you also need to bet the tie on the hedge, or you can lose survivor and not get any cash back.
Taken to an extreme, if you are only getting +150 on the hedges, you will spend a LOT more, and by the end, it might become hard to get the last hedge bet down. It might be 1MM over 6 weeks! So like a lot of things....easier said than done!
Now with a maximum of 2 picking weeks left, it is a lot easier and cheaper. Personally I think 2-3 weeks left is the sweet spot to hedge. Anything longer than that is simply too hard. Inteestingly, I am less concerned with how many players are left and more concerned with the number of weeks. If you told me that after week 2 there were only 2 of us left, that sounds great, but having to potentially hedge for 18 more picks would be impossible to get the last few bets down (the exponential nature would make those last bets too large). But if you tell me there are 100 people left with 2 weeks to go, I just hedge as if the prize is 90k etc...Far easier