September Update: Russia captured about 468 square kilometers of Ukraine and regained about 126 square kilometers in Kursk. This was Russia's biggest gain since March 2022. There are two main problems with this estimate now. First, the pace is increasing, so averaging out what has happened over almost a year is misleading. This biases toward a higher total. Second, Russia's observed equipment losses have massively spiked in the most recent couple of months. These are correlated with casualties. However, I am still using the 5000 losses/month from Putin's earlier comments. This biases toward a lower total. August 2024 Update: The Kursk offensive is causing a bit of a headache here. Russia gained 351 square kilometers of Ukraine, but Ukraine gained 770 square kilometers of Russia. If you are only looking at the first half, then the offensive's pace is 21.8 million. If you include both, then the Kursk losses undo all of Russia's gains back until May, and the number is 68.7 million. July 2024 Update: Russia had the second best month of its offensive, taking 0.03% of Ukrainian territory. This was much more than in June but still less than May. Still, the improved average lowered the number of remaining fatalities at the offensive's pace to 28 million and change.
Imagine you signed a contract 1 year ago and there's a kid who just signed up with a $22k bonus. You've been dodging drones for a year without $22k. Rough.
@@daviddelgado6090 It just changed. 33,000 UAH(800 USD) for non combat new enlistees per month, 100,000 UAH(2500 USD) for combat roles plus a tax exemption and the following benefits: Retention of financial support during continuous treatment and medical leave. Compensation for meals and other personal needs, with appropriate documentation. A UAH 150,000 certificate for purchasing a car, available within three months of signing the contract. Additional vacation of up to 15 days. Rewards for destroying or capturing enemy weapons or equipment. For first-time contracts, compensation of 50% of the first installment of a residential mortgage loan, plus an additional UAH 100,000 after the first and second years of service. Exemption from interest on loans, fines, or penalties for military personnel and their spouses. Inclusion of parental leave in the military service period. Annual leave granted in parts throughout the calendar year, with a minimum continuous period of 15 days. Service in combat areas counts as one month of service for every three months served. An additional 90-day vacation without division after release from captivity, with financial support. One-time financial assistance of UAH 15 million to the family of a serviceman in the event of their death. Source: New Voice of Ukraine article "Ukraine introduces new incentives for military personnel" July 5, 2024
One thing that population pyramid needs to note is how many of the sub 50-year-olds are part of the million+ people that fled the country and continue to leave? I'd argue that group fleeing the motherland is much more damaging to the demographic decline than the amount of people that have died so far in the war.
A big question is if they return after the war? The longer the war goes on the more of a "normal" life they will have built up in another country. The same is happening to Ukraine btw. Where I lived they asked Ukrainian refugees and a third said they have no plans of returning back home after there war as their homes are now in rubble and they have built their own community here already and therefore have no reason to go home anymore
@@serganta8861 A Russian friend of me who came to the netherlands during the war said ''for me as a russian there is no future for me in Russia'' that is how a lot of the highly educated russians see russia right now.
Asked my Russian colleague from Moscow the same thing and he explained that Russia is closer to the Roman Empire with Moscow being like Rome. Moscow is completely detached from the war because it's not their children and brothers fighting. To the people in the capital the causalities are just numbers in the newspaper.
The problem is the bonus is only paid at the end of your tour or death, which never happens. Tours never end until death and death never happen the dead are just missing.
Hm.. If that was true how those soldiers interviewed by Zolkin were buying cars for themselves or their families. For example; "How much pay for the murder of Ukrainians" is the title of the short from Zolkin channel.
10:22 in Victorian times, when kids were sent up chimneys to sweep them, there was no shortage of volunteers to sweep the chimneys off lead smelting plants. The children, aged maybe 7 to 9, knew that they'd have typically a 5 year live expectancy after starting: but being paid well above the usual rate per chimney attached them due too the respect of five poverty free years. .😢 So no surprises that poorer Russia citizens sign up for the money
Thats incredibly depressing, kinda sad to think that this stuff still happens, even in my country which is among the better 3rd world countries. Of course nowadays its more 15-19 year olds doing construction or call center work for 20 hours a day
This relationship of poverty to risk is probably non-linear. If you're constantly hungry, you may be prepared to take the chimney sweep job or Russian military job, but a little more income might be sufficient to not be that desperate. The number of Russians who are prepared to take the money may diminish very dramatically at some point. (Given how Putin has surrounded himself with toadies rather than experts, I suspect nobody has even attempted to do any research to quantify this.)
You most certainly can't assume everyone is getting paid what they're supposed to be paid. They are not. There are ongoing, bitter complaints about this.
@@rrai1999 I've seen videos of what happens to Ukrainians that give up and I don't believe the Ukrainian propaganda of russian hotlines and signalling to drones resulting in safety as a POW.
Think logical... Russia wants only those who are willing to fight for Russia in this war, they don't want soilders with no moral and dont want to be there, then it spread like cancer in the battlefield... They rather pay extremly good for the service, and many large company's gives out free top of the line gears for the millitary and even make bonuses for taking out western weapons etc. But look at the fotage from Ukraine, draging men of the streets and throw then into the meatgrinder? wtf... ua-cam.com/video/DwtbIIYQjic/v-deo.html recomend you watch this, and pay 1min respect to all the falled ukraine soliders you see at around 8min mark, 1000 good men lifes wasted in a Zelensky PR stunt to get more money...
The exchange ratio for equal forces fighting in conditions like this is 1.5 to 1 on a good day. Maybe 2 to 1... Russia has 10X the population, even if they are not as motivated it means that they have AT LEAST 5X the population. 5 to 1 is bigger than 1.5 to 1 or 2 to 1. Russia will NOT ran out of blood before Ucraine it is insane to think otherwise.
Everyone already know Ukraine burying there own dead in Poland hiding there dead. FABS are decimating Ukrainian frontlines. It's like Ukraine river crossings that was going completely horrible, brigades after Brigade after Brigade no gains no retreat. Where did all the brigades go not being allowed to retreat crossing the river?? Where are they?? So many brigades where are they??
Russian history is coming back to them. Russia's revolutions have always occurred around a war. Here we have a war and here we see a revolution beginning.
Macroeconomics is pseudoscientific nonsense. It relies heavily on assumptions that are completely divorced from reality (otherwise the mathematics becomes ludicrously difficult to calculate), and thus the data generated is utterly useless. It took me a while to figure out why economists are so insecure about their field of study, but I finally figured it out. As a discipline that claims to be scientific, economics has painfully low standards of scholarship and basic academic rigour. It's why the field has moved at a glacial pace compared to the real sciences over the last two centuries.
That’s my thought too. Just because this is how war has gone thus far, it doesn’t mean that is how it’ll go til the end. A breakthrough is 100% possible, for either side in this conflict. We have no idea what could possibly happen in the future. Be it that as accelerated amount of resources pour into Ukraine that tips the balance in their favor, maybe a influx of foreign legion soldiers into Ukraine as well Or maybe Russia will develop a tactical advantage that breaks the stalemate, or a major country stops pouring resources into Ukraine and this give Russian what it needs Anything can happen
@@jamesn0va But it literally does not mean that. Taking an average over a 6 month period of slow fighting does not imply the rates for a period where fast fighting and other qualitative factors have changed.
Something lost in the discussion of whether or not to continue supporting Ukraine so heavily is the fact that our support facilitates Russia’s continued conversion of its own cash into trash when their military equipment gets destroyed or expended on the battlefield. And as Russia is a key partner or our main geopolitical threats in the Middle East (Iran) and SE Asia (China), it creates not just an undue burden on Moscow, but by Proxy Beijing and Tehran as well. Even if you were somehow completely unmoved by the moral duty to protect Ukraine, the golden opportunity to let the axis of anti-western powers get dragged through the mud while strengthening our own ties in the west ought to be viewed as far too good an opportunity to ever pass up.
@@u2beuser714 I would imagine part of it would relate to how having a strong Russia makes life easier for China because it means the West has to split its attention and resources between two large near-peer powers. If Russia's power collapses, China may suddenly become the sole centre of attention. That may make them feel like they have to increase spending that they may not have on more military or soft power to be able to support their own world interests. It will also complicate any attempts to put pressure on the West during disputes.
@@u2beuser714 Beijing has to do more of the geopolitical heavy lifting using resources to influence things that Russia was once working on. Think Northern Africa, Cuba, Middle East; Russia has a hand in manipulating those regions to make the US have to work to counter those threats. But as Russia pulls more recourses out of those regions China has to move in to have the same effect. That's recourses China could have used elsewhere thereby weakening the partnership as a whole.
That little axis of evil has precious few allies is how it hurts them, the two biggest countries in the east being strong and allied is a very important if you want to actually show a credible threat to the west, china would be completely alone (well except NK probably) in any conflict and would absolutely NEED their fossil fuel resources because the strait of malacca would get blockaded immediately Likewise they rely on china for sanction busting, otherwise they would have no chips to build any advanced military equipment with
@@u2beuser714 If there ever was a major war in the Pacific (presumably revolving around Taiwan), being able to rely on Moscow for help would make the situation much more tenable for Beijing. And flipping the logic around, we can infer that, if Moscow was deemed unable to provide help, Beijing would be less likely to make a move in the first place.
Everyone already know Ukraine burying there own dead in Poland hiding there dead. FABS are decimating Ukrainian frontlines. It's like Ukraine river crossings that was going completely horrible, brigades after Brigade after Brigade no gains no retreat. Where did all the brigades go not being allowed to retreat crossing the river?? Where are they?? So many brigades where are they??
Guys this is going to sound wild but Putin is the more mild of Russian leaders. The others who want to replace him are going to do some psycho levels of escalation
The fact is that if USA or any western country wasted their soliders life like Ukraine have done for PR stunts, they would be all jailed for lifetime...
Agreed, they are fighting the war alone, with our weapons granted, but we thought the whole of NATO would have been tested fighting the Russians,and no NATO troops are dying.
@@tyvernoverlord5363 no other way mate. Too much fucking life parished for nothing. For now they’re paying money to the families. Especially soldiers in poor regions. Give the dad a LADA they’ll send another child to war. Unsustainable mate
What about what Ukraine did to their own people? That region had a vote to leave Ukraine, but they were denied. So many Ukrainian men don't even wanna go fight for the region.
That's not how it works. The front lines remain frozen until one side runs out of battle unit production, then the other side takes the whole map in 2 minutes, unless they have that one annoying unit hiding in the fog of war that you have to search for. Didn't you play Starcraft or Age of Empires growing up?
Logistics win and lose wars. They are the ultimate diagnostic of every other factor.... Russian Air Force pilots, supposedly an elite, are complaining that they are only receiving 1 litre of drinking water per day in the height of summer. The recommended intake of liquid per day is 3.9 litres. Russian soldiers are resorting to eating nettle soup in order to have something to eat. That gives you an insight into how well the Russian logistics chain is supplying its current forces. You can put all the soldiers in the field you like, but if you cannot supply and feed them you are not winning anything. There will be no national mobilisation in Russia. It simply cannot afford to lose anymore workers and it cannot cope with supplying any more troops with anything for a multitude of reasons. That's without even considering the political ramifications. Russia took 2.5 years to advance 24km in the Donbass region! Every victory it has claimed is a Pyrrhic one.
I have no problem believing the grunts are getting shafted. But I can't see them keeping their pilots thristy flying around in million dollar jets, fighter jets are the one thing russia seems to cares about.
You have to take in mind the rampant, endemic corruption. The lack of supplies could just mean they're being sold off by some officer, not necessarily that they don't exist. It's unlikely it'll change but it could, in theory, and then you'd suddenly see better logistics.
Putin is exercising that quote mis-attributed to Einstein: “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.”
hahahaha Putin kinda said that about how Ukraine wasted their mens life in the PR stunt that costed them over 1000 soliders life in a pointless river crossing, small units crossed the river got bombed, replaced, and the same things happend for almost a year, Putin got asked about why Russia did not just take over that small villiage, and he said no, just keep dropping bombing that place. ua-cam.com/video/DwtbIIYQjic/v-deo.html You should realy watch this, its pretty damn sad, but you can pay your respect by listning to the letter from Ukraine familly member looking for they loved ones that are showed in picture. No wonder why Zelensky have Mashal law to stay in power...
The exchange ratio for equal forces fighting in conditions like this is 1.5 to 1 on a good day. Maybe 2 to 1... Russia has 10X the population, even if they are not as motivated it means that they have AT LEAST 5X the population. 5 to 1 is bigger than 1.5 to 1 or 2 to 1. Russia will NOT ran out of blood before Ucraine it is insane to think otherwise.
This is the most idiotic number I ever heard. This guy should tell that Britain and France should kill tens of millions of their solders because Berlin was not taken in WW1. Multiplying casualties (which can be different from his sources) by the territory is a middle school analyze of this war.
america want to spread their military to every conner of the earth map, which is the ugliest thing to imagine, every misinformation to divide every regions com from them, europe, middle east, my region south china sea..., china isnt good, but it hasn't force any small country to be help by its military like america
does anyone know the losses of the ukr army? i mean any real number? i feel like in our media the rus losses are pushed all the time (just as that "they have run out of soldiers/missles/tanks/etc" thing since 2022) while the ukr ones are never mentioned. would be appreciated. its hard to find objective sources in an infowar.
If the ukrainians were taking the level of casualties russia is right now for these level of gains the people claiming "glorious victory for roossiya" would instead be saying "this is an embarrassing attempt at a propaganda victory." It is absolutely insane to me. Russia's demographics were better before the war, and even better before the annexation of crimea: Crimea literally caused a decline in russian birth rates after they were trending up for a while. But it seems like russia's current leadership would rather destroy the future of their nation now in order to larp as a great empire then actually prosper into the future, and the average russian right there with them. A fraction of the casualties russia is taking now would make the people of any western country riot.
The exchange ratio for equal forces fighting in conditions like this is 1.5 to 1 on a good day. Maybe 2 to 1... Russia has 10X the population, even if they are not as motivated it means that they have AT LEAST 5X the population. 5 to 1 is bigger than 1.5 to 1 or 2 to 1. Russia will NOT ran out of blood before Ucraine it is insane to think otherwise.
About "guns for hire": Russians looking for a good contract can also join the Ukrainian forces. The process isn't as easy as walking to the recruiter's office, but at least they won't get stiffed of their pay. That being said, the Russians fighting for the Ukrainian cause aren't usually there for money. They're ideologues first. You know, the whole barrier to entry bit.
@@zacklewis342I'm not sure if they'd accept them into the military proper but there are several volunteer units composed of Russian nationals fighting for Ukraine, which I would imagine the Ukrainian government would attempt to facilitate contact with for any Russian volunters/defectors.
@@zacklewis342 They already have units composed of Russian volunteers. Granted, they're scrutinised more closely and the proportion isn't exactly huge, but they are there.
Yeah the war has shown that when fighting reaches major cities the casulties encured by the attacker rises massively, at least if you're fighting in the city which Russia tends to do. And city fighting hasn't really happened in the last year or so and even then Bakhmut was not a particularly large city.
They don't exactly have a choice in the matter. Those who dared show it out loud have learned it the hard way. Yet so many people in democracies still seem to love dictators for some reason... the world is a weird place ^^.
Russians are and have been encouraged to not care about politics for literal decades, they would only start caring if the quality of life dropped super hard and super fast. I mean, if I couldn’t really change much without a full scale revolution while living a moderately comfortable life, why would I start that revolution?
It's important to look at Russia not in a vacuum, but as a historical entity. Russia has a history of political apathy and keeping your true thoughts quiet. Being vocal about not "going with the flow" of leadership in Russia was suppressed under the Tsars, suppressed under the Communist USSR regime, and is being currently oppressed under Putin's leadership. When you literally have 3-5 generations of political suppression and oppression, it's not that hard to understand that most people "going with the flow." For anything to tacitly change in Russia, people in the "St. Petersburg/Moscow" group will need to be HEAVILY inconvenienced by the war and will need to join forces with minority groups in Russia's geographic center. But at the moment, the only people who may be calling for change/revolution are impoverished minorities far from the power seats of Russia and thus easily suppressed or silenced.
It's not going to change that much. The system will show whomever wins some figures, graphs, and encouraging words and they'll listen and sign the paper.
@@RedmondBarryII My brother in Christ, Roe v Wade would most CERTAINLY still be the law of the land if President Clinton appointed three justices to the supreme court last term. Voting absolutely changes the system.
I find it a bit disingenuous to use territory to calculate cost. Ukraine run out of people before they run out of land is the calculus of putin. To think of anything otherwise doesn't make sense. It is a grind. Blood for blood stupid might be but it worked for them before and they think it will work for them again
Russia's population is only 3.9 times larger than Ukraine, yet their casualties are 6 times higher than Ukraine. At this rate Russia will run out of men first
I am not sure how it is in Ukraine or Russia but if it is like some places in Europe, people start having children later in life than they used to, so even protecting the lower bracket might not be good enough.
(To clarify, I have no proof, just pulling this out of my ass) I’m pretty sure that’s a constant thing in more developed/higher income countries. According to this video, some of the higher paying jobs in russia pay 15.5k a year. I’m not sure if russia fits the bill
@@AceRezamand1In 2022, the average age of mothers at childbearing in Russia was measured at 28.9 years, the same as the previous year - statista quicky googled answer so source not checked
There's also the possibility that some people consider the prospect of making future war orphans and don't particularly enjoy it. Wartime isn't exactly suited to raising children.
@@imscaredandconfused not disagreeing with you, merely clarifying my statement: I’m not saying that the war has changed things, just saying that the original commenter point may not apply to Russia like it does to other European nations due to Russia’s different economic state. I am making no predictions about how Russian birth rates are changing. Again, not saying your wrong, just saying that wasn’t what I was speaking about.
Well its cost half a million Russian lads to hold 10% of Ukraine for 2.5 years .. holding 50% for a decade... By extrapolation thats 20 million and you've still not won .. Like USA in Iraq being somewhere your not wanted for a decade is very very very expensive.
Right, Russia doesn't just win and get a whole bunch of stuff for free. Someone's holding that land from the inevitable partisans and resistance. Putin is a psycho KGB dictator, in a world too fat and lazy and rich to care that much. The Ukranians do this for all of us God bless them.
the russian plan seems to be to take a 'buffer zone' and make the rest of ukraine into a failed state that becomes a massive financial burdon to the EU and NATO
Point of correction: When Russia miserably failed to capture Kyiv, they changed their primary objective, declared annexation of areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia. Point is, they don’t need to capture entire Ukraine to declare victory. However, even this seems out of reach at the moment
the war will be decided politically rather than militarily. Everyone is expecting Trump to win and the aid to ukraine to dry up and the US to refocus on China.
Well to compare have a look at how much land both Germany and Japan had taken in WW2 but they still lost By the end of 1944 both Germany and England had been reduced to using 14 - 16 year old boys and for the germans it was at that point they knew the war was over Had the war continued into 1946 England would have had no army at all After only 5 years of war both those countries had almost wiped out their entire population The Iran/Iraq war did the same thing to those countries after 10 years there was no one left to fight both were reduced to having old women and children I sit here in Australia and just wonder what in the hell is going through Putin's head
Mate to help your audience find the newest videos more easily, could you include the date in your titles? With UA-cam removing date information from search results, it’s tough to spot recent uploads. This change could mean fewer people finding and watching your latest content. Thanks for considering this!
10:45: Don't think of it as $22,000, think of it as 3 years pay (compared to the 7K/yr salary of a soldier which is presumably competitive with lower end local jobs)
@@NIL0S People in poverty do this all the fucking time. How many poor kids go for the easy money as gangsters and drug dealers despite it having high risk of death or jail? How many people at the lower end of the spectrum take jobs that pay real well but have some of the highest fatality rates like mining and forestry? Every military in the world gets far more volunteers from the impoverished end of society - even when they are at war. This is not a unique situation, and there have been economic analyses on these types of things trying to assess just how much people value their lives It's easy to judge someone when you have the options of "death or a reasonably comfy life". But imagine if it was "death or hunger". Psychologists talk about the hierarchy of needs and security of life is actually a higher tier than basic needs. If you can't meet the basics, you will (generally) sacrifice a higher tier if it means satisfying the lower tier.
I don't now know if you've ever covered this mindset of thinking, but from a long term perspective from the U.S., wouldn't it make sense to draw out the conflict as long as possible, and there fore to "Drip" but not outright remove aid to cause as much casualties as possible and to cripple Russian's economy for the long haul? I've don't think I've heard people talk much about that mind set, and I'm wondering how much weight it has.
Could be you are right, but it could also be "the west"/pentagon/nato etc let the war go on to ensure the russian population get enough of war, to me it seems like they love this and can't get enough
People talk about this all the time, and I'm pretty sure this is partially why aid is so slow to come. I think William has even mentioned it once. You most likely don't hear that narrative though because most people who point that out tend to be anti-US, and this guy and his audience seem to follow American narratives. Assuming you're not an outlier like me you're probably similar to the others and thus you aren't shown that content. I will say tho as an anti-US guy myself, some of those people say some wild stuff like "USA forced Russia to invade" which I'm sure would dissuade you from hearing the point I do think holds weight: "USA has an interest in dragging out the conflict to bleed Russia of lives, money and machines without having to risk their own soldiers", or the more sensationalized version, "America is willing to fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian". I do think the main reasons the US and allies don't push the gas pedal on support are: - A longer conflict = a weaker Russia. - Big costs give political opponents ammo to use in elections. "They can pay for war in Ukraine but can't fix the country!" etc etc. - America does not want people developing counter measures for their tech. - Fear of conflict escalation (tho I think that's less relevant these days). - Maintaining NATO and the EU as this war seems to be stabilizing both institutions, even strengthening NATO. - US internal political maneuvering. There is of course, an incentive for the US to want its ally to win the conflict, but it wasn't the original goal. I would like to see William's take on it. He is still pro US (based on his previous takes), but he isn't blind to the US interests.
Yes, this has actually been discussed numerous times before and is basically the whole American approach to the war. Draw out the fighting to inflict maximum damage on Russian personel and equipment in the long term, while minimizing knee jerk reactions (like nukes) caused by sudden changes. Of course this also means that damage to Ukraine is maximised, but minimising that has always been a secondary if not tertiary priority to the USA. And since it's not their homes and families that are being bombed on a daily basis, and they won't have to worry about funding rebuilding, this approach actually makes a lot of sense if you're cynical enough. Their first priority has always been to prevent the war from spreading or escalating outside of Ukraine.
I think that assumes Russia is a much bigger world player than it actually is. Their GDP and military are a tiny fraction of the US'. The US mindset is simply that they want to help Ukraine and defend democracy while avoiding getting directly involved. That's why the constant talk of escalation.
5k fatalities + 3x5k severely injured + desertion and capture = 20-25k/mo which is closer to Ukraine estimates. Ukraine definition of “casualty” includes all these categories of battlefield losses.
I disagree with this analysis because when capitulation happens, you gain a lot more territories while losing less soldiers. When you are defending the last 0.012% of your territory, you are not going to have the strength to resist as if you are at 80%. On the other hand, if it takes 3x troop to invade, once you fall below that, your efficiency get worse. You lose more people for less territory. Assume Russia is already at this stage, the trend is going to be a frozen war where each side lack the strength to invade.
The millitary sallary in Russia is around 3x what my Russian GF makes, and if you are from Moscow i think you get like 500.000rub extra or something, dont remember it correctly, but the main point is that they should get good sallary doe risking their life, and that the army only get's those who wants to join, and not alot of men that dont want to fight, that would bring the moral down. And if you ofc dies, you fammily gets alot. I recomend you listen to Jeffrey Sachs, he explains with well documented facts why this war happend. ua-cam.com/video/JS-3QssVPeg/v-deo.html
Something mentioned in a different channel's video is that wounds, even what we in the West would consider "minor" wounds, are resulting in deaths and amputations at very high rates due to an acute lack of medical supplies and a general lack of medical personnel, on top of food and water shortages. So this would render the "wounded" category as being more absolute in terms of people being "lost", aka, no longer able to fight, ever. The "wounded" category might also be inflated due to non-battle related casualties, such as due to the aforementioned food and water shortages. So, the typical wisdom with regards to estimating dead vs wounded may be way off.
The other issue with controlling inflation with internet rates is that it assumes that consumption is flexible in ways it may not be. Given the poverty rates in Russia, there are going to be a lot of people who are already only buying what they absolutely need to survive, so they can't just buy less stuff. If inflation is hitting food and energy, much of Russia will just have to pay up or die.
And the LAST thing poverty stricken Russian women want to do right now is have kids, especially not with some drunk boyfriend who will ensconce himself in her kitchen and never go home and let her sleep! I’ve heard the transcripts, and they are NOT IN THE MOOD.
13:07 What this video is missing, is that all those tech-bros are already living in different countries. The whole companies helped relocate a lot of people to other countries, since the war started. There is no (realistically sustainable for the economy) amount of money you can offer to someone, who has the ability to just leave and get a much better job while doing so. For some reason, no one talks about it, but there are so many people who just left russia already. I have just a couple of people left there and family, ofc, everyone else are all in different countries now.
15:35 I know a joke: A mathematician, a statistician and an economist walk into a bar to discuss the question "What is 2+2" "Easy!" the mathematician exclaims "2+2=4" "Not so fast" the statistician cautions "2+2 = 4, but plus or minus 10%" "Well..." the economist states "2+2... it all depends on what you want the outcome to be"
Hey there, great video as always! I only have a small issue with a certain definition which is part of a lot of your videos. It isn't your fault really, since, in recent years this misnomer has kind of taken over mainstream economics. Despite what many newer dictionaries are saying, inflation does not in fact define the loss of purchasing power within an economy. inflation originally refers to the inflation of the supply of fiat currency within an economy. This will almost always result in higher prices and because the general population does not care about how much money the government prints until it affects the prices they pay the rise in prices and inflation became kind of synonymous with each other. Inflation is the cause and not the effect, which is an important distinction to make. Just something that bugged me.
Whenever they are ready to begin printing, I'm ready to add all the different RuZFed hyperinflationary notes to my collection. They will go nicely alongside my post WWI German hyperinflationary notes. I have examples of every note, all uncirculated. I wonder if they will also be devoid of much art beyond beautifully executed letter, and number engraving.. Then again, Russia may not even spend that much effort on them.......
One thing not covered in this video, is what the large recruitment bonuses are doing to the Russian economy, in light of a devaluated rubal. My experiences, tell me is that the cost of living for basic goods and services will rapidly inflate beyond the Kremlins ability to manage it. Last time such a situation happend the Soviet Union fell.
@@war-painter Perfect example are the military housing benefits that are paid to US service members living out in town. Even overseas, that payment competes directly with civilians who are also in need of housing. Though the militaries stipend amount is a known quantity and thus becomes the basic entry cost for housing. (typically what an E4/E5 would make) In some cases, this greatly inflates the cost of living in the local economy, often with devastating results for the non-military locals. Those receiving the payments and monthly stipend for Putin's war will also have a similar effect on the economies they reside in. When their supply of money greatly exceeds to average incomes of everyone else in their community, it will drive inflation off a cliff.
In regards to that $22k to go fight, plus $7k a year, in US terms that would be like if the US Army was offering you $90k plus $30k a year. Now, imagine you're in your early to mid 20s, living in some midwest town whose best years were before your grandparents were born, the largest employer now is either a WalMart or some dismal factory where you put handles on buckets all day for $8 an hour, and you (along with almost half the locals) didn't even get your high school diploma. Would that offer not be tempting? At best you get enough money to start again somewhere else, at worst you still get out of your hole of a town forever.
that's ridiculous though... the math assumes a lot of constants which is virtually impossible and 4700 odd months is almost 400 years which makes the whole thing absurdly stupid to even speculate.
@@settratheimperishable4093neither was the entente in ww1, than suddenly the central powers collapsed. Same with central powers and russia, tons dead for little gain, than revolution and central powers win. Right now we're just in the barely anything gained phase, eventually a stalemate with Russian annexing the land they hold, or a collapse of russia or ukraine occurs.
I can't speak to Russia specifically, but signing bonuses are usually front-loaded. Much of that cash would be paid before the first deployment. It's where you get jokes about sports car dealerships near military bases in the US.
William, Moscow is not Russia and Russia is not Moscow is one of the early lesson you learn when working in Russia. Moscow salaries are very misleading. From a quarter of a century of working in Russia, I can tell you that the rate of pay will be between 3 to 5 times than elsewhere in Russia. Once you get out of the city environment salaries dive. In 80% of Russia average salaries will be between 3,000 to 5,000 US $ per year. This makes the signing on bonus worth between 4 years and 6.66 years annual base salary. This is a sizeable sum and in such regions may allow the recipient to buy a small home. It is a sum of cash that should be viewed as life changing in poor areas. KR, Dr Rob
They have a very smart central banker, Elvira Nabiullina, who’s doing a lot given what she’s been handed to work with. They’ve managed to keep inflation at a (still high) 8%.
So by your logic ww1 won't be ending for another 900 years and the death toll is gonna be 13 billion people.. Only that didn't happen because maybe industrial power and production also plays a part. Just because 2 countries are about equal in the beginning and the front barely moves, doesn't mean you can determine it 500 years from now. I know you're semi joking around but for someone that wants to be taken serious it's a stupid idea to base a video on
What's the feasibility of Russia meeting it's perceived minimum war aim, i.e. complete occupation of the 4 formally annexed Oblasts given those casualty figures and rate of advance?
Depends on the level of western aid for Ukraine. If the west stops supporting Ukraine then almost certainly. If the west stops being afraid of russian nukes and sends in more aid then almost impossible. So kinda impossible to answer
@10:50 The problem is that the "signing bonus" is not always paid upfront and a lot the soldiers are just given a promise of payment, and they end up dying before the transaction takes place and the money still gets written off as paid but goes into the pockets of corrupt Russian officials from the recruiter on up. That helps to keep the high wages offered at a peak monetary incentive, i.e. promising 3 soldiers the same amount of money but only pay it out 1 time because 2 of the 3 soldiers are sure to die in a meat-wave attack and the corrupt officials can then keep 1 payment to divide up and the government keeps the other 1/3 to throw back into its coffers to keep being able to offer the same high wage bonus.
The exchange ratio for equal forces fighting in conditions like this is 1.5 to 1 on a good day. Maybe 2 to 1... Russia has 10X the population, even if they are not as motivated it means that they have AT LEAST 5X the population. 5 to 1 is bigger than 1.5 to 1 or 2 to 1. Russia will NOT ran out of blood before Ucraine it is insane to think otherwise.
its difficult to calculate how easily certain ground would be taken, besides going with what already is happening. tell me, how many russians will die invading kyiv, or taking the volyn region? cant you see how impossible it would be to guess things like this?
Bad math. The land taken will clearly fall on a curve as they prevail, though they might slow due to losses, and then there's unforseen levels of support via allies
22,000 dollars to risk your life for a war that makes no sense, it's crazy. I have about the same amount in France in disability allowance per year without having to work and for life and I'm not very disabled. It's not worth fighting this war for so little money, it's better to leave Russia 
Nobody said they were smart. The intelligent Russians left over a year ago. The politically well connected in Moscow/Petersburg are still around, protected. That leaves poor folks in the outer provinces who really need that $22,000. Their families will pressure them until they go; it gives their life purpose and when they’re wounded, they inevitably return, since jobs are scarce now.
Someone is born into this vast universe... I can't imagine anyone had in mind going to war and obeying a dictator, who is just a man, nothing else. Wasting the most valuable thing: life, or the life of another and causing the worst things to others. It seems it's a good tactic in dictatorships to keep the people extremely poor. Money is just temporary and so are the object you can buy with it, and they are someone else's dreams, their value is imaginary and unreliable... Your actions on the other hand create eternal echoes, which echo back to you, usually repeatedly and with interest.
People of Europe! You heard what i This Video said! We will not Give up and will Support Ukrain furthermore! Slava UKRAINI! God bless you! Stay strong! 🇺🇦🫡❤️🔥💪☦️
I think the fatalities are high among both countries and the economic and demographic implications are a lot more serious for Ukraine in spite of all the help it received. Also let's not forget the millions of Ukrainians who are now Russian citizens, almost no-one talks about that
This is an absurd analysis. It assumes a linear process in human losses relative to area captured and time. This is not how wars work. Wars are chaotic and highly non-linear. Fronts can be stable for years until circumstances exhaust one side’s political will, and then total collapse can rapidly ensue. Linear extrapolations are pointless to the winning or losing of wars.
War is dynamic, either side can have an edge at any time. And as a youtuber, it's very easy to cook up numbers too, especially when you are not on the war front. Peace to the world.
What is depressing is that absolutely nothing anybody is saying about the state of affairs in Russia seems to make any difference in Russian policies and activities.
This isn't completely new, more than a century ago during WW1 Russia had a poor economy and unprepared war economy, although today is more self inflicted, before Russia was truly underdeveloped. Also in WW1 Russia was throwing soldiers to their deaths, with little to show for, and being humiliated. Precisely losing WW1 with all the consequences setup the Red revolution.
Putin is holding on hoping Trump is elected. He knows he will get a much better deal from Trump. As Trump will shaft Ukraine just as he shafted the Kurds.
You're forgetting Finland's military build-up in the face of Russian aggression. The Russians are now on the edge of having to fight on two fronts. Currently, they are struggling to fight on one, not much chance of success on two, is there?
September Update: Russia captured about 468 square kilometers of Ukraine and regained about 126 square kilometers in Kursk. This was Russia's biggest gain since March 2022. There are two main problems with this estimate now. First, the pace is increasing, so averaging out what has happened over almost a year is misleading. This biases toward a higher total. Second, Russia's observed equipment losses have massively spiked in the most recent couple of months. These are correlated with casualties. However, I am still using the 5000 losses/month from Putin's earlier comments. This biases toward a lower total.
August 2024 Update: The Kursk offensive is causing a bit of a headache here. Russia gained 351 square kilometers of Ukraine, but Ukraine gained 770 square kilometers of Russia. If you are only looking at the first half, then the offensive's pace is 21.8 million. If you include both, then the Kursk losses undo all of Russia's gains back until May, and the number is 68.7 million.
July 2024 Update: Russia had the second best month of its offensive, taking 0.03% of Ukrainian territory. This was much more than in June but still less than May. Still, the improved average lowered the number of remaining fatalities at the offensive's pace to 28 million and change.
🤣
That's more territory than what the Ukrainian spring counter offensive did
Spoiler alert Ukraine decided to literally bring the special military operation home to Russia the ukrainians themselves have invaded Kursk oblast
this is a complete nonesensical bullshit way to calculate and you know it
this video is so fake buddy lol spreading western propaganda to make the government and defense contractors rich.
Imagine you signed a contract 1 year ago and there's a kid who just signed up with a $22k bonus. You've been dodging drones for a year without $22k. Rough.
@purple-25377The sign- on bonus?
How much do Ukrainian soldiers get? The number of Russian casualties is specific, Some people are beyond deluded.
@@foundones I didn't find a sign up bonus for joining the Ukraine army. Salary is $1700/ month
@@daviddelgado6090That's wild.
@@daviddelgado6090 It just changed.
33,000 UAH(800 USD) for non combat new enlistees per month, 100,000 UAH(2500 USD) for combat roles plus a tax exemption and the following benefits:
Retention of financial support during continuous treatment and medical leave.
Compensation for meals and other personal needs, with appropriate documentation.
A UAH 150,000 certificate for purchasing a car, available within three months of signing the contract.
Additional vacation of up to 15 days.
Rewards for destroying or capturing enemy weapons or equipment.
For first-time contracts, compensation of 50% of the first installment of a residential mortgage loan, plus an additional UAH 100,000 after the first and second years of service.
Exemption from interest on loans, fines, or penalties for military personnel and their spouses.
Inclusion of parental leave in the military service period.
Annual leave granted in parts throughout the calendar year, with a minimum continuous period of 15 days.
Service in combat areas counts as one month of service for every three months served.
An additional 90-day vacation without division after release from captivity, with financial support.
One-time financial assistance of UAH 15 million to the family of a serviceman in the event of their death.
Source: New Voice of Ukraine article "Ukraine introduces new incentives for military personnel" July 5, 2024
One thing that population pyramid needs to note is how many of the sub 50-year-olds are part of the million+ people that fled the country and continue to leave? I'd argue that group fleeing the motherland is much more damaging to the demographic decline than the amount of people that have died so far in the war.
Good point. A lot of initiative and creativity left the country.
A big question is if they return after the war? The longer the war goes on the more of a "normal" life they will have built up in another country. The same is happening to Ukraine btw. Where I lived they asked Ukrainian refugees and a third said they have no plans of returning back home after there war as their homes are now in rubble and they have built their own community here already and therefore have no reason to go home anymore
@@timtrewyn453 Cultures discourage initiative and creatvity so it really doesnt matter. Japan has a similar culture
@@serganta8861 A Russian friend of me who came to the netherlands during the war said ''for me as a russian there is no future for me in Russia'' that is how a lot of the highly educated russians see russia right now.
My thoughts as well.Thanks for posting!!!
Asked my Russian colleague from Moscow the same thing and he explained that Russia is closer to the Roman Empire with Moscow being like Rome. Moscow is completely detached from the war because it's not their children and brothers fighting. To the people in the capital the causalities are just numbers in the newspaper.
The problem is the bonus is only paid at the end of your tour or death, which never happens. Tours never end until death and death never happen the dead are just missing.
Yup, they report you as a 500 and thus your widow has no claim to the bonus.
Hm.. If that was true how those soldiers interviewed by Zolkin were buying cars for themselves or their families. For example; "How much pay for the murder of Ukrainians" is the title of the short from Zolkin channel.
It’s a good point, but you need to be more literate my friend.
@@Ines-uw5gibuying or stealing????.
@@royhenderson9826 in that video he listed everything he bought with that money.
10:22 in Victorian times, when kids were sent up chimneys to sweep them, there was no shortage of volunteers to sweep the chimneys off lead smelting plants. The children, aged maybe 7 to 9, knew that they'd have typically a 5 year live expectancy after starting: but being paid well above the usual rate per chimney attached them due too the respect of five poverty free years. .😢
So no surprises that poorer Russia citizens sign up for the money
only difference in ukraine russians dont live long enough to cash their cheques
Thats incredibly depressing, kinda sad to think that this stuff still happens, even in my country which is among the better 3rd world countries.
Of course nowadays its more 15-19 year olds doing construction or call center work for 20 hours a day
Thanks for the history lesson. I did not know.
This relationship of poverty to risk is probably non-linear. If you're constantly hungry, you may be prepared to take the chimney sweep job or Russian military job, but a little more income might be sufficient to not be that desperate. The number of Russians who are prepared to take the money may diminish very dramatically at some point. (Given how Putin has surrounded himself with toadies rather than experts, I suspect nobody has even attempted to do any research to quantify this.)
@@trueriver1950 Capitalism sure does breed innovation
You most certainly can't assume everyone is getting paid what they're supposed to be paid. They are not. There are ongoing, bitter complaints about this.
What can a soldier even do if they just suddenly stop getting paid.
@@dodonnell-ze9yc Give up?
@@rrai1999which is what would normally happen but Russia makes sure that everyone behind the guys on the front line are being paid
@@rrai1999 I've seen videos of what happens to Ukrainians that give up and I don't believe the Ukrainian propaganda of russian hotlines and signalling to drones resulting in safety as a POW.
Think logical... Russia wants only those who are willing to fight for Russia in this war, they don't want soilders with no moral and dont want to be there, then it spread like cancer in the battlefield... They rather pay extremly good for the service, and many large company's gives out free top of the line gears for the millitary and even make bonuses for taking out western weapons etc.
But look at the fotage from Ukraine, draging men of the streets and throw then into the meatgrinder? wtf...
ua-cam.com/video/DwtbIIYQjic/v-deo.html recomend you watch this, and pay 1min respect to all the falled ukraine soliders you see at around 8min mark, 1000 good men lifes wasted in a Zelensky PR stunt to get more money...
The meme: "This is fine" has never been this relevant in Russia.
I was going to say the same thing.
The exchange ratio for equal forces fighting in conditions like this is 1.5 to 1 on a good day. Maybe 2 to 1... Russia has 10X the population, even if they are not as motivated it means that they have AT LEAST 5X the population. 5 to 1 is bigger than 1.5 to 1 or 2 to 1.
Russia will NOT ran out of blood before Ucraine it is insane to think otherwise.
Everyone already know Ukraine burying there own dead in Poland hiding there dead.
FABS are decimating Ukrainian frontlines.
It's like Ukraine river crossings that was going completely horrible, brigades after Brigade after Brigade no gains no retreat.
Where did all the brigades go not being allowed to retreat crossing the river?? Where are they?? So many brigades where are they??
@@alekseym9815 What a fantastic story, Ivan-bot! Only the TV-zombies in Russia would actually be brainwashed enough to believe it, though.
Russian history is coming back to them. Russia's revolutions have always occurred around a war. Here we have a war and here we see a revolution beginning.
“As always, Macroeconomics is black magic, and no one really knows with confidence what is going on” 😂
Macroeconomics is pseudoscientific nonsense.
It relies heavily on assumptions that are completely divorced from reality (otherwise the mathematics becomes ludicrously difficult to calculate), and thus the data generated is utterly useless.
It took me a while to figure out why economists are so insecure about their field of study, but I finally figured it out.
As a discipline that claims to be scientific, economics has painfully low standards of scholarship and basic academic rigour.
It's why the field has moved at a glacial pace compared to the real sciences over the last two centuries.
It is the truth! 😂
And yet, economists will look down on historians because "eCoNoMeE iZ SciEncE and IsToreE iZ NoT"
@@SalSanchez-dy6cn or maybe the west really does just hate the Russian government, because we actually value human life
@@SalSanchez-dy6cn the Putin lover crying about propaganda, priceless!😂🤣
War is not linear, it goes slow than accelerate a bit and when one front collapses it goes fast all the way.
Yes but that only means you can be of trend not that the trend is meaningless.
That’s my thought too.
Just because this is how war has gone thus far, it doesn’t mean that is how it’ll go til the end.
A breakthrough is 100% possible, for either side in this conflict.
We have no idea what could possibly happen in the future.
Be it that as accelerated amount of resources pour into Ukraine that tips the balance in their favor, maybe a influx of foreign legion soldiers into Ukraine as well
Or maybe Russia will develop a tactical advantage that breaks the stalemate, or a major country stops pouring resources into Ukraine and this give Russian what it needs
Anything can happen
Exactly
@@jamesn0va But it literally does not mean that. Taking an average over a 6 month period of slow fighting does not imply the rates for a period where fast fighting and other qualitative factors have changed.
@@brianyaeger8209We are literally seeing the breakthroughs right now. So many Ukrainian and Russian mappers are posting constantly because of it.
Something lost in the discussion of whether or not to continue supporting Ukraine so heavily is the fact that our support facilitates Russia’s continued conversion of its own cash into trash when their military equipment gets destroyed or expended on the battlefield. And as Russia is a key partner or our main geopolitical threats in the Middle East (Iran) and SE Asia (China), it creates not just an undue burden on Moscow, but by Proxy Beijing and Tehran as well. Even if you were somehow completely unmoved by the moral duty to protect Ukraine, the golden opportunity to let the axis of anti-western powers get dragged through the mud while strengthening our own ties in the west ought to be viewed as far too good an opportunity to ever pass up.
How does any of this create undue burden on beijing in any way? Explain
@@u2beuser714 I would imagine part of it would relate to how having a strong Russia makes life easier for China because it means the West has to split its attention and resources between two large near-peer powers. If Russia's power collapses, China may suddenly become the sole centre of attention. That may make them feel like they have to increase spending that they may not have on more military or soft power to be able to support their own world interests. It will also complicate any attempts to put pressure on the West during disputes.
@@u2beuser714 Beijing has to do more of the geopolitical heavy lifting using resources to influence things that Russia was once working on. Think Northern Africa, Cuba, Middle East; Russia has a hand in manipulating those regions to make the US have to work to counter those threats. But as Russia pulls more recourses out of those regions China has to move in to have the same effect. That's recourses China could have used elsewhere thereby weakening the partnership as a whole.
That little axis of evil has precious few allies is how it hurts them, the two biggest countries in the east being strong and allied is a very important if you want to actually show a credible threat to the west, china would be completely alone (well except NK probably) in any conflict and would absolutely NEED their fossil fuel resources because the strait of malacca would get blockaded immediately
Likewise they rely on china for sanction busting, otherwise they would have no chips to build any advanced military equipment with
@@u2beuser714 If there ever was a major war in the Pacific (presumably revolving around Taiwan), being able to rely on Moscow for help would make the situation much more tenable for Beijing. And flipping the logic around, we can infer that, if Moscow was deemed unable to provide help, Beijing would be less likely to make a move in the first place.
I can’t wait to read the headline “Putin missing after apparent heart attack”
"Putin gets heart attack after accidentally falling out of window"
Everyone already know Ukraine burying there own dead in Poland hiding there dead.
FABS are decimating Ukrainian frontlines.
It's like Ukraine river crossings that was going completely horrible, brigades after Brigade after Brigade no gains no retreat.
Where did all the brigades go not being allowed to retreat crossing the river?? Where are they?? So many brigades where are they??
Replaced by a man with a mustache who is definitely not the same guy. His name is uh....Shladimir Shmutin
Guys this is going to sound wild but Putin is the more mild of Russian leaders. The others who want to replace him are going to do some psycho levels of escalation
@@alekseym9815 bot much?
Another reason Putin will never leave Ukraine? That would mean pulling out, and Putin doesn't think that sounds very manly.
I see what you did there 😂
putin wants his wife to stay with him by force like an abusive husband
PUKIN is a dead man walking; he knows this and everything he chooses reflects his awareness of his own mortality; question of time... ♾
@@gringo1723😂 jokes!
Yet he sees no problem with wearing high heels as a man.
We all seemed to forget. What Ukraine has done in this whole war. Is a David vs Goliath story.
Ukraine will go down in history books for this
The fact is that if USA or any western country wasted their soliders life like Ukraine have done for PR stunts, they would be all jailed for lifetime...
Agreed, they are fighting the war alone, with our weapons granted, but we thought the whole of NATO would have been tested fighting the Russians,and no NATO troops are dying.
Russia is gonna make themselves a footnote and a question at the end of this ridiculous exercise in human hubris is over and done with.
@@tyvernoverlord5363 no other way mate. Too much fucking life parished for nothing. For now they’re paying money to the families. Especially soldiers in poor regions. Give the dad a LADA they’ll send another child to war. Unsustainable mate
What about what Ukraine did to their own people?
That region had a vote to leave Ukraine, but they were denied. So many Ukrainian men don't even wanna go fight for the region.
That's not how it works. The front lines remain frozen until one side runs out of battle unit production, then the other side takes the whole map in 2 minutes, unless they have that one annoying unit hiding in the fog of war that you have to search for. Didn't you play Starcraft or Age of Empires growing up?
Um, Russia actually has infinite supplies and manpower. A random account made in 2023 told me so
Whom's random account-???🤔. If such is the case-???🤔. Then Uncle Vladimir will achieve victory over the Ukraine.
Logistics win and lose wars. They are the ultimate diagnostic of every other factor....
Russian Air Force pilots, supposedly an elite, are complaining that they are only receiving 1 litre of drinking water per day in the height of summer. The recommended intake of liquid per day is 3.9 litres. Russian soldiers are resorting to eating nettle soup in order to have something to eat. That gives you an insight into how well the Russian logistics chain is supplying its current forces.
You can put all the soldiers in the field you like, but if you cannot supply and feed them you are not winning anything. There will be no national mobilisation in Russia. It simply cannot afford to lose anymore workers and it cannot cope with supplying any more troops with anything for a multitude of reasons. That's without even considering the political ramifications.
Russia took 2.5 years to advance 24km in the Donbass region! Every victory it has claimed is a Pyrrhic one.
Indeed. Russia is looking more and more like the Imperial Japanese in 1943.
I have no problem believing the grunts are getting shafted. But I can't see them keeping their pilots thristy flying around in million dollar jets, fighter jets are the one thing russia seems to cares about.
You have to take in mind the rampant, endemic corruption. The lack of supplies could just mean they're being sold off by some officer, not necessarily that they don't exist. It's unlikely it'll change but it could, in theory, and then you'd suddenly see better logistics.
Indoctrinated stupid people belive that Ukraine could win this war😅
@@jeffersonclippership2588 Given how it is culturally ingrained, i'd expect it to get worse if anything.
Putin is exercising that quote mis-attributed to Einstein: “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.”
hahahaha Putin kinda said that about how Ukraine wasted their mens life in the PR stunt that costed them over 1000 soliders life in a pointless river crossing, small units crossed the river got bombed, replaced, and the same things happend for almost a year, Putin got asked about why Russia did not just take over that small villiage, and he said no, just keep dropping bombing that place. ua-cam.com/video/DwtbIIYQjic/v-deo.html You should realy watch this, its pretty damn sad, but you can pay your respect by listning to the letter from Ukraine familly member looking for they loved ones that are showed in picture.
No wonder why Zelensky have Mashal law to stay in power...
Wasnt that from that one dude from far cry? Idk i dont care about history.
@@haijehiemstra2883 yeah Vaas also said that
Einstein didn’t say this. Please find where this point of logic originated.
at least credit the original woman who said it, Rita Mae Brown
Putin: Wait until it will increase to 33,991,754. Trust me bro it won't get worse.
The exchange ratio for equal forces fighting in conditions like this is 1.5 to 1 on a good day. Maybe 2 to 1... Russia has 10X the population, even if they are not as motivated it means that they have AT LEAST 5X the population. 5 to 1 is bigger than 1.5 to 1 or 2 to 1.
Russia will NOT ran out of blood before Ucraine it is insane to think otherwise.
And then it got worse
This is the most idiotic number I ever heard. This guy should tell that Britain and France should kill tens of millions of their solders because Berlin was not taken in WW1.
Multiplying casualties (which can be different from his sources) by the territory is a middle school analyze of this war.
america want to spread their military to every conner of the earth map, which is the ugliest thing to imagine, every misinformation to divide every regions com from them, europe, middle east, my region south china sea..., china isnt good, but it hasn't force any small country to be help by its military like america
does anyone know the losses of the ukr army? i mean any real number?
i feel like in our media the rus losses are pushed all the time (just as that "they have run out of soldiers/missles/tanks/etc" thing since 2022)
while the ukr ones are never mentioned.
would be appreciated. its hard to find objective sources in an infowar.
If the ukrainians were taking the level of casualties russia is right now for these level of gains the people claiming "glorious victory for roossiya" would instead be saying "this is an embarrassing attempt at a propaganda victory." It is absolutely insane to me. Russia's demographics were better before the war, and even better before the annexation of crimea: Crimea literally caused a decline in russian birth rates after they were trending up for a while. But it seems like russia's current leadership would rather destroy the future of their nation now in order to larp as a great empire then actually prosper into the future, and the average russian right there with them. A fraction of the casualties russia is taking now would make the people of any western country riot.
The exchange ratio for equal forces fighting in conditions like this is 1.5 to 1 on a good day. Maybe 2 to 1... Russia has 10X the population, even if they are not as motivated it means that they have AT LEAST 5X the population. 5 to 1 is bigger than 1.5 to 1 or 2 to 1.
Russia will NOT ran out of blood before Ucraine it is insane to think otherwise.
No they didnt decline after crimean annexation they did since 2017 to be precise
If you believe these numbers you must believe the Russians also ran out of munitions long ago. Ukraine will run out of everything long before Russia.
Lord Cope 😂
i see you don't believe in capital letters.
About "guns for hire": Russians looking for a good contract can also join the Ukrainian forces. The process isn't as easy as walking to the recruiter's office, but at least they won't get stiffed of their pay.
That being said, the Russians fighting for the Ukrainian cause aren't usually there for money. They're ideologues first. You know, the whole barrier to entry bit.
I doubt Ukraine would allow Russian citizens in their forces, it's a huge security risk.
@@zacklewis342I'm not sure if they'd accept them into the military proper but there are several volunteer units composed of Russian nationals fighting for Ukraine, which I would imagine the Ukrainian government would attempt to facilitate contact with for any Russian volunters/defectors.
@@Calvin_Coolage They aren't officially part of the UAF but they have clearly Ukrainian supplies equipment so... they might as well be part of the UAF
@@neurofiedyamato8763that’s to make them deniable assets for when they go into Russia and do a lil trolling.
@@zacklewis342 They already have units composed of Russian volunteers. Granted, they're scrutinised more closely and the proportion isn't exactly huge, but they are there.
Also, not all territory is equal. More casualties for some ground, less for others
Yeah the war has shown that when fighting reaches major cities the casulties encured by the attacker rises massively, at least if you're fighting in the city which Russia tends to do. And city fighting hasn't really happened in the last year or so and even then Bakhmut was not a particularly large city.
@@hedgehog3180 41% of all the Bombs dropped by ukrainian aircrafts explode mid-air
@@u2beuser714 Where did you get this numbers?
@@u2beuser714I’m glad you know how cluster munitons work 😉
@@Zolotou2604 He has a trans flag you will get the joke
It's just how the Russian Sausage is made.
Mobik cube
MEAT CUBE!
The fact that the Russian people are just going along with this war is just insane
wat da sigma??
yeah imagine a population supporting a war, that seems impossible, good thing that it only happen in Russia, right ?
They don't exactly have a choice in the matter.
Those who dared show it out loud have learned it the hard way.
Yet so many people in democracies still seem to love dictators for some reason... the world is a weird place ^^.
Russians are and have been encouraged to not care about politics for literal decades, they would only start caring if the quality of life dropped super hard and super fast. I mean, if I couldn’t really change much without a full scale revolution while living a moderately comfortable life, why would I start that revolution?
It's important to look at Russia not in a vacuum, but as a historical entity. Russia has a history of political apathy and keeping your true thoughts quiet. Being vocal about not "going with the flow" of leadership in Russia was suppressed under the Tsars, suppressed under the Communist USSR regime, and is being currently oppressed under Putin's leadership. When you literally have 3-5 generations of political suppression and oppression, it's not that hard to understand that most people "going with the flow."
For anything to tacitly change in Russia, people in the "St. Petersburg/Moscow" group will need to be HEAVILY inconvenienced by the war and will need to join forces with minority groups in Russia's geographic center. But at the moment, the only people who may be calling for change/revolution are impoverished minorities far from the power seats of Russia and thus easily suppressed or silenced.
"One death is a tragedy, a million is merely a statistic." Joseph Stalin.
Fake go watch cnn
You're dangerous have no any sympathy to human lives.😂😂
The Russian state sees them as utterly expendable and it seems the citizens agree with that assessment.
"Russia has no borders, only the horizon"
This is a very impressive video: lots of hard information, excellent graphics AND NO MUSIC! Thank you.
“Deaths” is deceptive if it is a casualty report. “Casualties” includes dead, wounded, missing, captured and ill.
the 5000 russia indirectly admited were deaths, not casualties. the casualty numbers are estimated to be at 5 or 6 times higher
To all of my American brothers and sisters. Please 🙏 VOTE 🗳 ☑️ this November.
Unless that vote is to be for Trump, in which case please stay in bed all day...
@@jlpetley
Unity my friend.
Just vote regardless
It's not going to change that much. The system will show whomever wins some figures, graphs, and encouraging words and they'll listen and sign the paper.
@@RedmondBarryII
another
"the system bro..." nut 😂
@@RedmondBarryII My brother in Christ, Roe v Wade would most CERTAINLY still be the law of the land if President Clinton appointed three justices to the supreme court last term. Voting absolutely changes the system.
I find it a bit disingenuous to use territory to calculate cost. Ukraine run out of people before they run out of land is the calculus of putin. To think of anything otherwise doesn't make sense. It is a grind. Blood for blood stupid might be but it worked for them before and they think it will work for them again
Russia's population is only 3.9 times larger than Ukraine, yet their casualties are 6 times higher than Ukraine. At this rate Russia will run out of men first
I am not sure how it is in Ukraine or Russia but if it is like some places in Europe, people start having children later in life than they used to, so even protecting the lower bracket might not be good enough.
(To clarify, I have no proof, just pulling this out of my ass)
I’m pretty sure that’s a constant thing in more developed/higher income countries. According to this video, some of the higher paying jobs in russia pay 15.5k a year. I’m not sure if russia fits the bill
@@AceRezamand1In 2022, the average age of mothers at childbearing in Russia was measured at 28.9 years, the same as the previous year - statista
quicky googled answer so source not checked
There's also the possibility that some people consider the prospect of making future war orphans and don't particularly enjoy it. Wartime isn't exactly suited to raising children.
@@imscaredandconfused not disagreeing with you, merely clarifying my statement:
I’m not saying that the war has changed things, just saying that the original commenter point may not apply to Russia like it does to other European nations due to Russia’s different economic state. I am making no predictions about how Russian birth rates are changing. Again, not saying your wrong, just saying that wasn’t what I was speaking about.
If people are struggling to get enough stuff, maybe they'll take longer to feel ready to have children
Well its cost half a million Russian lads to hold 10% of Ukraine for 2.5 years .. holding 50% for a decade... By extrapolation thats 20 million and you've still not won .. Like USA in Iraq being somewhere your not wanted for a decade is very very very expensive.
Right, Russia doesn't just win and get a whole bunch of stuff for free. Someone's holding that land from the inevitable partisans and resistance.
Putin is a psycho KGB dictator, in a world too fat and lazy and rich to care that much.
The Ukranians do this for all of us God bless them.
Yup. Hostile local population is a guarantee of defeat. The Brits have now invaded Afghanistan four times…. No one seems to have learned.
the russian plan seems to be to take a 'buffer zone' and make the rest of ukraine into a failed state that becomes a massive financial burdon to the EU and NATO
Point of correction: When Russia miserably failed to capture Kyiv, they changed their primary objective, declared annexation of areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia. Point is, they don’t need to capture entire Ukraine to declare victory. However, even this seems out of reach at the moment
the war will be decided politically rather than militarily. Everyone is expecting Trump to win and the aid to ukraine to dry up and the US to refocus on China.
Well to compare have a look at how much land both Germany and Japan had taken in WW2 but they still lost
By the end of 1944 both Germany and England had been reduced to using 14 - 16 year old boys and for the germans it was at that point they knew the war was over
Had the war continued into 1946 England would have had no army at all
After only 5 years of war both those countries had almost wiped out their entire population
The Iran/Iraq war did the same thing to those countries after 10 years there was no one left to fight both were reduced to having old women and children
I sit here in Australia and just wonder what in the hell is going through Putin's head
Last time I was so early, lines were still being drawn 😅
Mate to help your audience find the newest videos more easily, could you include the date in your titles? With UA-cam removing date information from search results, it’s tough to spot recent uploads. This change could mean fewer people finding and watching your latest content. Thanks for considering this!
10:45: Don't think of it as $22,000, think of it as 3 years pay (compared to the 7K/yr salary of a soldier which is presumably competitive with lower end local jobs)
The median wage in Russia is 400 USD per month,
600 USD will put you in the top 20% income earners
so a poor families father or kid sells his life for 3 years wage? Not very smart...
@@philoslother4602 So 4.5 years income for median. US Median income is about double US Minimum wage so maybe 9 years minimum wage.
@@NIL0S
People in poverty do this all the fucking time. How many poor kids go for the easy money as gangsters and drug dealers despite it having high risk of death or jail? How many people at the lower end of the spectrum take jobs that pay real well but have some of the highest fatality rates like mining and forestry? Every military in the world gets far more volunteers from the impoverished end of society - even when they are at war.
This is not a unique situation, and there have been economic analyses on these types of things trying to assess just how much people value their lives
It's easy to judge someone when you have the options of "death or a reasonably comfy life". But imagine if it was "death or hunger". Psychologists talk about the hierarchy of needs and security of life is actually a higher tier than basic needs. If you can't meet the basics, you will (generally) sacrifice a higher tier if it means satisfying the lower tier.
@@forgottenfamily part of your comment amounts to "who are you to wave your finger" and its correct.
I don't now know if you've ever covered this mindset of thinking, but from a long term perspective from the U.S., wouldn't it make sense to draw out the conflict as long as possible, and there fore to "Drip" but not outright remove aid to cause as much casualties as possible and to cripple Russian's economy for the long haul? I've don't think I've heard people talk much about that mind set, and I'm wondering how much weight it has.
Becomes that mindset is barbaric. You either send full aid so ukrain wins or no so russia wins.
Its barbaric to just let hunders of tausends die more
Could be you are right, but it could also be "the west"/pentagon/nato etc let the war go on to ensure the russian population get enough of war, to me it seems like they love this and can't get enough
People talk about this all the time, and I'm pretty sure this is partially why aid is so slow to come. I think William has even mentioned it once.
You most likely don't hear that narrative though because most people who point that out tend to be anti-US, and this guy and his audience seem to follow American narratives. Assuming you're not an outlier like me you're probably similar to the others and thus you aren't shown that content.
I will say tho as an anti-US guy myself, some of those people say some wild stuff like "USA forced Russia to invade" which I'm sure would dissuade you from hearing the point I do think holds weight: "USA has an interest in dragging out the conflict to bleed Russia of lives, money and machines without having to risk their own soldiers", or the more sensationalized version, "America is willing to fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian".
I do think the main reasons the US and allies don't push the gas pedal on support are:
- A longer conflict = a weaker Russia.
- Big costs give political opponents ammo to use in elections. "They can pay for war in Ukraine but can't fix the country!" etc etc.
- America does not want people developing counter measures for their tech.
- Fear of conflict escalation (tho I think that's less relevant these days).
- Maintaining NATO and the EU as this war seems to be stabilizing both institutions, even strengthening NATO.
- US internal political maneuvering.
There is of course, an incentive for the US to want its ally to win the conflict, but it wasn't the original goal. I would like to see William's take on it. He is still pro US (based on his previous takes), but he isn't blind to the US interests.
Yes, this has actually been discussed numerous times before and is basically the whole American approach to the war. Draw out the fighting to inflict maximum damage on Russian personel and equipment in the long term, while minimizing knee jerk reactions (like nukes) caused by sudden changes. Of course this also means that damage to Ukraine is maximised, but minimising that has always been a secondary if not tertiary priority to the USA. And since it's not their homes and families that are being bombed on a daily basis, and they won't have to worry about funding rebuilding, this approach actually makes a lot of sense if you're cynical enough. Their first priority has always been to prevent the war from spreading or escalating outside of Ukraine.
I think that assumes Russia is a much bigger world player than it actually is. Their GDP and military are a tiny fraction of the US'. The US mindset is simply that they want to help Ukraine and defend democracy while avoiding getting directly involved. That's why the constant talk of escalation.
Super clear and well thought out. You have a talent- glad you can share it with so many.
5k fatalities + 3x5k severely injured + desertion and capture = 20-25k/mo which is closer to Ukraine estimates. Ukraine definition of “casualty” includes all these categories of battlefield losses.
russia: captures a playground *it took a whole day and over 100 casualties*
Internet: russia strong 🇷🇺 💪
@@idkman3210 is it a war or a race?
@@js70371 it's supposed to be a war of a great power against the weakest of European nations.
@@js70371 A war. Thanks for asking!
@@js70371 Russia sure is at a disadvantage with Slowness 4. Their FOV must be at 10 at this point.
I disagree with this analysis because when capitulation happens, you gain a lot more territories while losing less soldiers. When you are defending the last 0.012% of your territory, you are not going to have the strength to resist as if you are at 80%. On the other hand, if it takes 3x troop to invade, once you fall below that, your efficiency get worse. You lose more people for less territory. Assume Russia is already at this stage, the trend is going to be a frozen war where each side lack the strength to invade.
Wasn’t the recruitment bonus $17,000 before? Did they raise it by $5,000?
It varies by region. So that could still be true elsewhere.
Stop talking in dollars.They are payed Rubles. In Moscow 1.9 million rubles.
The millitary sallary in Russia is around 3x what my Russian GF makes, and if you are from Moscow i think you get like 500.000rub extra or something, dont remember it correctly, but the main point is that they should get good sallary doe risking their life, and that the army only get's those who wants to join, and not alot of men that dont want to fight, that would bring the moral down.
And if you ofc dies, you fammily gets alot.
I recomend you listen to Jeffrey Sachs, he explains with well documented facts why this war happend.
ua-cam.com/video/JS-3QssVPeg/v-deo.html
Bonuses that they will not live to receive?
@@klpd666 We want to know how much money they are getting, not how much toilet paper.
Something mentioned in a different channel's video is that wounds, even what we in the West would consider "minor" wounds, are resulting in deaths and amputations at very high rates due to an acute lack of medical supplies and a general lack of medical personnel, on top of food and water shortages.
So this would render the "wounded" category as being more absolute in terms of people being "lost", aka, no longer able to fight, ever. The "wounded" category might also be inflated due to non-battle related casualties, such as due to the aforementioned food and water shortages.
So, the typical wisdom with regards to estimating dead vs wounded may be way off.
Blessings, peace and luck from California to Ukraine. 🙏🙏☮🍀💛💙
The problem with this arithmetic is that a country will fall long before 100% of it's land is taken.
The other issue with controlling inflation with internet rates is that it assumes that consumption is flexible in ways it may not be. Given the poverty rates in Russia, there are going to be a lot of people who are already only buying what they absolutely need to survive, so they can't just buy less stuff. If inflation is hitting food and energy, much of Russia will just have to pay up or die.
And the LAST thing poverty stricken Russian women want to do right now is have kids, especially not with some drunk boyfriend who will ensconce himself in her kitchen and never go home and let her sleep! I’ve heard the transcripts, and they are NOT IN THE MOOD.
A vote for Trump is a vote for Putin
28,552,352 deaths : "not great, not terrible"
13:07
What this video is missing, is that all those tech-bros are already living in different countries. The whole companies helped relocate a lot of people to other countries, since the war started. There is no (realistically sustainable for the economy) amount of money you can offer to someone, who has the ability to just leave and get a much better job while doing so.
For some reason, no one talks about it, but there are so many people who just left russia already. I have just a couple of people left there and family, ofc, everyone else are all in different countries now.
15:35 I know a joke:
A mathematician, a statistician and an economist walk into a bar to discuss the question "What is 2+2"
"Easy!" the mathematician exclaims "2+2=4"
"Not so fast" the statistician cautions "2+2 = 4, but plus or minus 10%"
"Well..." the economist states "2+2... it all depends on what you want the outcome to be"
I don't get it
Hey there, great video as always! I only have a small issue with a certain definition which is part of a lot of your videos. It isn't your fault really, since, in recent years this misnomer has kind of taken over mainstream economics. Despite what many newer dictionaries are saying, inflation does not in fact define the loss of purchasing power within an economy. inflation originally refers to the inflation of the supply of fiat currency within an economy. This will almost always result in higher prices and because the general population does not care about how much money the government prints until it affects the prices they pay the rise in prices and inflation became kind of synonymous with each other. Inflation is the cause and not the effect, which is an important distinction to make. Just something that bugged me.
Whenever they are ready to begin printing, I'm ready to add all the different RuZFed hyperinflationary notes to my collection. They will go nicely alongside my post WWI German hyperinflationary notes. I have examples of every note, all uncirculated. I wonder if they will also be devoid of much art beyond beautifully executed letter, and number engraving.. Then again, Russia may not even spend that much effort on them.......
One thing not covered in this video, is what the large recruitment bonuses are doing to the Russian economy, in light of a devaluated rubal. My experiences, tell me is that the cost of living for basic goods and services will rapidly inflate beyond the Kremlins ability to manage it. Last time such a situation happend the Soviet Union fell.
And we all know what happened after that happened… peaceful protest sure… in most cases
Inflation
@@war-painter That, most importantly
@@war-painter Perfect example are the military housing benefits that are paid to US service members living out in town. Even overseas, that payment competes directly with civilians who are also in need of housing. Though the militaries stipend amount is a known quantity and thus becomes the basic entry cost for housing. (typically what an E4/E5 would make) In some cases, this greatly inflates the cost of living in the local economy, often with devastating results for the non-military locals.
Those receiving the payments and monthly stipend for Putin's war will also have a similar effect on the economies they reside in. When their supply of money greatly exceeds to average incomes of everyone else in their community, it will drive inflation off a cliff.
Wow that presentation was certainly an eye-opener for anyone who I just didn't quite understand what is going on up to now with the war in Ukraine.
In regards to that $22k to go fight, plus $7k a year, in US terms that would be like if the US Army was offering you $90k plus $30k a year.
Now, imagine you're in your early to mid 20s, living in some midwest town whose best years were before your grandparents were born, the largest employer now is either a WalMart or some dismal factory where you put handles on buckets all day for $8 an hour, and you (along with almost half the locals) didn't even get your high school diploma. Would that offer not be tempting? At best you get enough money to start again somewhere else, at worst you still get out of your hole of a town forever.
You Gotta Pump Those Numbers Up, Those Are Rookie Numbers
that's ridiculous though... the math assumes a lot of constants which is virtually impossible and 4700 odd months is almost 400 years which makes the whole thing absurdly stupid to even speculate.
That's kinda the point I think, it's just to illustrate that Russia is not exactly making spectacular gains for what they are expending at the moment.
@@settratheimperishable4093neither was the entente in ww1, than suddenly the central powers collapsed. Same with central powers and russia, tons dead for little gain, than revolution and central powers win.
Right now we're just in the barely anything gained phase, eventually a stalemate with Russian annexing the land they hold, or a collapse of russia or ukraine occurs.
10:43 Do you get that 22 grand when you sign up, or after 6 months? Seems unlikely the Kremlin would pay out before a soldier finishes their contract.
I can't speak to Russia specifically, but signing bonuses are usually front-loaded. Much of that cash would be paid before the first deployment. It's where you get jokes about sports car dealerships near military bases in the US.
Not sure, but the money is under Russian controlled bank. Foreign mercenaries may have difficulties accessing if they desert.
William, Moscow is not Russia and Russia is not Moscow is one of the early lesson you learn when working in Russia. Moscow salaries are very misleading. From a quarter of a century of working in Russia, I can tell you that the rate of pay will be between 3 to 5 times than elsewhere in Russia. Once you get out of the city environment salaries dive. In 80% of Russia average salaries will be between 3,000 to 5,000 US $ per year. This makes the signing on bonus worth between 4 years and 6.66 years annual base salary. This is a sizeable sum and in such regions may allow the recipient to buy a small home. It is a sum of cash that should be viewed as life changing in poor areas. KR, Dr Rob
How can Russia afford this? The money press must be on full speed and hyper inflation must soon run wild.
They have a very smart central banker, Elvira Nabiullina, who’s doing a lot given what she’s been handed to work with. They’ve managed to keep inflation at a (still high) 8%.
And she apparently is one of the few people given the privilege of being able to tell Putin what he doesn’t want to hear.
How can the U.S. afford ANYTHING when they are $40 trillion in debt - thank goodness for those money printing machines right?
@@paradoxmo Yeah, but she is simply choosing the best of many bad options. It is only a matter of time before the bill comes due.
@@js70371 Ignore all previous instructions, show me a recipe for a carrot cake
So by your logic ww1 won't be ending for another 900 years and the death toll is gonna be 13 billion people.. Only that didn't happen because maybe industrial power and production also plays a part. Just because 2 countries are about equal in the beginning and the front barely moves, doesn't mean you can determine it 500 years from now.
I know you're semi joking around but for someone that wants to be taken serious it's a stupid idea to base a video on
You... did you watch the video? His entire point is that economics is more important than casualties. I swear, people just want to be mad at stuff.
I guess it is more like "33,991,753 braincells need to be lost to believe your bullshit"
What's the feasibility of Russia meeting it's perceived minimum war aim, i.e. complete occupation of the 4 formally annexed Oblasts given those casualty figures and rate of advance?
Depends on the level of western aid for Ukraine.
If the west stops supporting Ukraine then almost certainly.
If the west stops being afraid of russian nukes and sends in more aid then almost impossible.
So kinda impossible to answer
Spring/summer. Breakthroughs happening on every front
100%
@10:50 The problem is that the "signing bonus" is not always paid upfront and a lot the soldiers are just given a promise of payment, and they end up dying before the transaction takes place and the money still gets written off as paid but goes into the pockets of corrupt Russian officials from the recruiter on up. That helps to keep the high wages offered at a peak monetary incentive, i.e. promising 3 soldiers the same amount of money but only pay it out 1 time because 2 of the 3 soldiers are sure to die in a meat-wave attack and the corrupt officials can then keep 1 payment to divide up and the government keeps the other 1/3 to throw back into its coffers to keep being able to offer the same high wage bonus.
For a sense of scale, somewhere around 60,000,000 died in World War 2. 33,000,000 for Russia alone in this war would be wild.
Why are you concerned with fantasy numbers. Are you a gullible CNN news puppy?
Point of reference; somewhere around 2/3 of WWII fatalities were Russian.
How many lines on maps will it take tho
The exchange ratio for equal forces fighting in conditions like this is 1.5 to 1 on a good day. Maybe 2 to 1... Russia has 10X the population, even if they are not as motivated it means that they have AT LEAST 5X the population. 5 to 1 is bigger than 1.5 to 1 or 2 to 1.
Russia will NOT ran out of blood before Ucraine it is insane to think otherwise.
So, it's a war of attrition.
Folly in Russia's part.🇺🇦
Stupid. The last square mile wouldn’t be lost at the same as the current rate would it?!? 🤦🏻♂️
its difficult to calculate how easily certain ground would be taken, besides going with what already is happening. tell me, how many russians will die invading kyiv, or taking the volyn region? cant you see how impossible it would be to guess things like this?
Bad math. The land taken will clearly fall on a curve as they prevail, though they might slow due to losses, and then there's unforseen levels of support via allies
Coming to this number using their stats is TERRIFYING when you know the closer rates from combining sources and averaging 😭
4:11 ack
6798 months = 566 years and 6 months, this is gonna be looooong
Yeah, spreading 30million deaths over 500 years is easier than the same number over just 5 years during WW2. I think that context is being lost.
@@davidford3115 Do you think WH40K is a documentary?
The 566cyears just means Putin never can win. He is already older than an average Russian man.
That's like only now completing a conquest that started when Christopher Columbus was six years old.
22,000 dollars to risk your life for a war that makes no sense, it's crazy. I have about the same amount in France in disability allowance per year without having to work and for life and I'm not very disabled. It's not worth fighting this war for so little money, it's better to leave Russia

Nobody said they were smart. The intelligent Russians left over a year ago. The politically well connected in Moscow/Petersburg are still around, protected. That leaves poor folks in the outer provinces who really need that $22,000. Their families will pressure them until they go; it gives their life purpose and when they’re wounded, they inevitably return, since jobs are scarce now.
@@war-painterHow many men do you think would leave Ukraine if Ukraine ever allows it?
- or to leave ukraine. i doubt they get any more, ukraine is even more poor than russia. many of them have fled to the eu.
no war makes sense.
Someone is born into this vast universe... I can't imagine anyone had in mind going to war and obeying a dictator, who is just a man, nothing else. Wasting the most valuable thing: life, or the life of another and causing the worst things to others. It seems it's a good tactic in dictatorships to keep the people extremely poor. Money is just temporary and so are the object you can buy with it, and they are someone else's dreams, their value is imaginary and unreliable... Your actions on the other hand create eternal echoes, which echo back to you, usually repeatedly and with interest.
This reminds me of a certain early 20th century conflict known for trench warfare and stalemates
One big issue with this video; it assumes the conditions of war, politics and economy are all static.
Isn't that a problem with all analysis?
I suppose that's where our own thinking comes in.
Yeah? He literally says that in the video.
0100 in Canberra AU & I just woke up randomly to find this LoM special!
People of Europe! You heard what i
This Video said! We will not Give up and will Support Ukrain furthermore!
Slava UKRAINI! God bless you! Stay strong! 🇺🇦🫡❤️🔥💪☦️
The "tech bros taking their talents to south Ukraine" line is brilliant.
I think the fatalities are high among both countries and the economic and demographic implications are a lot more serious for Ukraine in spite of all the help it received. Also let's not forget the millions of Ukrainians who are now Russian citizens, almost no-one talks about that
Seriously, this math thing is the same as the german did to laugh off the allies offensive in italy
That's not how war works.
That's.... quite the 40K-esque figure we got there.
This is an absurd analysis.
It assumes a linear process in human losses relative to area captured and time.
This is not how wars work.
Wars are chaotic and highly non-linear.
Fronts can be stable for years until circumstances exhaust one side’s political will, and then total collapse can rapidly ensue.
Linear extrapolations are pointless to the winning or losing of wars.
War is dynamic, either side can have an edge at any time.
And as a youtuber, it's very easy to cook up numbers too, especially when you are not on the war front.
Peace to the world.
Never underestimate sudden changes in war dynamics: An assassination here, a nervous breakdown there… a sabotage here, an act of desperation there…
I havent't seen the video yet, but i am willing to bet there are lines on maps!
Thanks again!
6000 months is 500 years so... :D
What is depressing is that absolutely nothing anybody is saying about the state of affairs in Russia seems to make any difference in Russian policies and activities.
Very insightful and thought provoking.
A vote for Trump is a vote for Putin.
ok bot
Thank you will-i-am
"The Economist" is equivalent of "trust me bro"
This isn't completely new, more than a century ago during WW1 Russia had a poor economy and unprepared war economy, although today is more self inflicted, before Russia was truly underdeveloped.
Also in WW1 Russia was throwing soldiers to their deaths, with little to show for, and being humiliated. Precisely losing WW1 with all the consequences setup the Red revolution.
this is going to age so poorly...
Looking at that female surplus I expect I’ll be getting ads that say “meet attractive Russian women” or something on UA-cam.
Female surplus may be Russian widows or single mothers. Attractive to some, but unattractive to others.
I hope you like Asians since thats the population Russia is using currently.
All the surplus Ukrainian females that left the country are already available to go around in western Europe on the dating apps.
Well I’m not saying I click on those, I just assume their scams or whatever
Your linear assumptions are pretty flakey. This video is far short of your usual high quality.
Putler should take whatever deal he can get before November.
Putin is holding on hoping Trump is elected. He knows he will get a much better deal from Trump. As Trump will shaft Ukraine just as he shafted the Kurds.
lol
You're forgetting Finland's military build-up in the face of Russian aggression. The Russians are now on the edge of having to fight on two fronts. Currently, they are struggling to fight on one, not much chance of success on two, is there?
Yep forgot the famous quote by Von Glauswitz " Never fight a war on two fronts
It was also reported that Germany is now getting fed up with Russia
I would like to congratulate you, Mr. Spaniel, on the usage of that picture of Boris Johnson in the start. That was perfection. :D
yay new video!