These videos have been a massive help to my game, besides learning, they keep me focused and help me overcome the biggest thing that holds me back at the table (Self-Confidence issues, where I start double and triple guessing and just own myself). I even just played a 5 hour session where I made a total of 6 hands the entire night, 2 of which were folded, 1 set (All-In pre-flop with AA, made top set), 0 flushes, 0 straights, and 1 2 pair, 2 one pairs, and 2 other big pocket pairs. I had 3 big pairs the whole night, AA (which won), QQ (Which won a set of blinds), and JJ (Which was folded to a 4 bet and 5 bet shove). I had to adjust to my game, where, once the absolute size of the bet was over 50 BBs, any bet over 67% pot was functionally an overbet, lots of turn folds when I was preparing to shove on the river, and I had no edge in bomb pots (single board PLO) since the entire population was experienced in PLO (This poker room runs PLO quite frequently). I have a long way to go, there was one guy who I think had a dead tell on me because every time i was bluffing he called or raised, but I still walked away with a modest win while running bad with exploitative plays. I made some mistakes, getting a little too out of line in spots that didn't justify it pre-flop, but instead of getting tilted, I was able to refocus because I knew why they were mistakes and was more focused on improvement. Keep it up!
Started watching you everyday about 2 weeks ago. Played a home game with the boys and doubled up 😂. You explain things in the best and easiest ways to understand. I can’t wait to go to the casino and be wise and responsible. First time I played poker at the casino I hit a full house that I had no idea I hit 😂 ended up winning the high hand, left +400 that day
On the one hand, I think this is the most helpful poker channel and you deserve all the success in the world and I want you to make more content On the other, I don’t want anyone else to know all this good shit so I can keep my new edge. Is sharing the channel +EV or not?? 🤔
thanks for the kind words! completely understand the sentiment but look at it this way - if the channel flops we will just stop giving away any and all info publicly and just keep all the sauce for ourselves. who wants that?? 😂
@@hungryhorsepoker haha fiiiiine I suppose I'll trust my new guru :D But seriously I did just get back from Vegas with by far my biggest win, so I owe you. Keep up the good work.
plz give an example. how small? and which situation? i m afraid of by myself, that they never fold toppair or middlepair, if it looks like a missed draw.
This young man is so intelligent and so fluent with his speech; he's got such good command of the jargon related to his passion of poker, (which as a man in his 53rd year, I find infectious) that I find it difficult to keep up with the information presented, despite having been playing live poker in Atlantic City for 20 years now. Jump cuts are also an insidious part of the You Tube experience any more; I find that one sentence bleeds into the next, seemingly without a breath - which for me, breaks the normal flow of conversation to which I am used. I get no time to grok the ideas and principles he's sharing because it's immediately on to the next sentence, reminiscent of my great Uncle Bobby who smoked so much, he'd light the next cigarette with the one currently embedded in his yap. 😚🚬 But good news awaits! - If you put my man on 75% speed, I find it's much easier to keep up, providing the time I need to stay involved, and thereby interested. Love what you're doing - keep it up!
Hey Marc, I absolutely love your videos and I do think your strategy makes a lot of sense. So thank you very much for your great insides. In terms of your assumptions in the "capped deep" example however, I am not that sure if a bluff with 54d should blast the river. I would argue that even recreationals do not necessarily raise with the A high flush on the turn, since their hand is basically invulnarable and we have so far shown quite some aggression, which we may be likely to follow up on the river. So I would argue that their range is still uncapped on the river, why I feel like overbetting in this spot may be a punt. Would be happy if you explain why my thought process is not accurate. Thanks
The honest thing is that recreationals are really, REALLY worried about not getting paid off, and when they're nutted they put in raises in the hopes that you'll "put a play on them" and 3-bet shove, so they can snap it off. I know from experience that they have no concept of protecting their ranges. If they do raise, if it's a minclick, you can actually come over the top 100% of the time and induce the snap fold. This works because they raise big for value and small as a bluff, it's so transparent. So yeah if they call the turn, your goal should be to threaten their stack on the river, so going large allows them to worry you're nutted and will get it in if they raise. OTOH, if you shove it, they'll think you're bluffing and call off really wide. Funnily enough, going big for value and small for a bluff works really well against recs because they think you're trying to bluff them when you go big and trying to get value when you go small. Anyway hopes this helps.
Really enjoy the blend of live play videos and concept videos you are putting out every week! Looking forward to seeing what the subscription model looks like. Are you defining deep as 200bb+ and shallow 100bb and below?
Smooch! Love your content, Marc! You’ve made me such a better poker player in my 5/5 games at Hollywwod Park. You’re such an amazing poker teacher. You have such a great command of poker theory and how population plays in live games to find the exploits. Can’t wait to see what your subscription model and next Boot Camp class looks like!
hey brian - we’ll be opening back up booking next tuesday (5 days from now) so schedule then, or… shoot me an email right now bootcamp at hungryhorsepoker dot com and we’ll get you in!
I had a bit of an epiphany watching this video. I thought, "this guy plays like Postle" and then saw the truth of the matter - you *do* play like Postle, and for the same reason. You are able to "see" your opponents' hole cards through their actions, which leads to this high variance style of play. You have lots of big bluffs and then smaller value bets, just like Postle. Probably doesn't need to be said but I don't intend this as an insult, but rather a compliment.
This strategy only works vs thinking players. Most players at the live casino who have a capped range will gladly call off 250% pot with A 9 on Qs 9s 7h 3d 2h just because "you missed your flush. I call". Through extensive experimentation and utlizing this strategy consistently, its actually very rare that it works so proceed with extreme caution. Some of the calls ive seen have left me absolutely perplexed. Also ive mostly made these plays with a fairly nitty image which makes the opponents plays so much worse when they call off 2nd pair for 200bbs on river
My bluffs here in San Diego been getting thru a huge amount. Vs calling station reg who plays all Ax n Kx every time. I have QQ flop is K77. She checks flop I check. Turn she bets small I check raise 5x she calls. I Bet 80% on River she tanks flips over K (I’m sure a bad kicker) and folds… says sure I have a 7
By far my favorite online poker coach! Thanks Marc! Can you make a video like this playing in a 100bb config? I play a lot of online poker and some clubs have a 100bb max buy in.
I might just be dumb but can someone explain the logic behind the river bets? Both times u ran through the scenario of if I had the effective nuts/simply betting for value I would bet somewhere near pot, but because I don’t I’m gonna 3x pot bet to get folds. If there’s no consistency on ur river bet sizes don’t u basically just start playing with ur cards face up? Like won’t they just know from whenever u first show ur cards that near pot is value so what is he betting 3x with?
This strategy is all based about the opponent having a capped range. It would be fair to say that you can't just rely on your opponent calling a small bet on the flop to determine whether they are capped. It very much depends on the opponent type (ie: do they lead / check raise often or are they passive). Proceed with caution otherwise you'll be bluffing into all player types on the river
Exactly. Capped is such a subjective concept that it needs to have that caveat in there. Even at these tiny stakes live, he ran into a guy that gave him rope and owned him x/c him down in one of the episodes. People aren’t complete idiots and can adjust, even the fish sometimes. His MO is that it isn’t gonna happen often enough at these stakes, which is fine/true. But he gotta mention that important detail anyway, so that he doesn’t run into people blindly following these strats and getting wrecked bc they didn’t counter adjust.
It's weird because I've seen so many of your bluffs get snap called with you listing a ton with 54. Then thankfully you break even because you finally win a big hand. But good luck none the less!
So in the first hand example, if we had a nutted hand like 99, are we jamming the river for value? I would assume the answer is yes because if we are betting a value size to get called when we have the nuts and only shoving/betting huge when we miss the opponents will figure that out and call shoves more often right?
Question . What sites are good to play on? How do you know that people aren’t using RTA and Bots? How does the site detect and protect us as poker users ?
Check back and lose. They aren’t calling 2x on the turn to fold a brick river. When they call 2x oop and we’re holding spades + the T , they don’t have many draws and have a lot of 2 pair +
@anthonyhall7133 I agree, but Marc doesn't care about blockers sometimes. Maybe we get a bottom set or 2 pairs to fold, maybe pair, + fd, etc. Not sure what our bluffs are? Maybe ATd JTs T9s TT?
@@RunItTw1ce4858 this is ironically my first video I’ve ever watched of his. So I am unsure what he usually does. This seems to me to be one of the times that blockers are relevant though. 78ss J8ss are the only pair + flush draw I think have merit to call turn. So that’s 2 combos we’re looking to fold out vs a lot of combos of value they still have. Definitely an interesting spot nonetheless
we either apply all the pressure because we think qx will mostly fold, or we just bet small and get draws to fold. going with a size in between accomplishes neither goal.
@@hungryhorsepoker Your "max pressure" argument only holds if the extra pressure is substantially better at folding most Qx... With $600 we need 61% folds; with $1010, 72.5%. Are we getting an additional 11.5% folds with the larger size? I'm not so sure. Some players even call more with the larger sizing, even though it's theoretically wrong, because they "put you on a bluff". But mostly I feel like 1.5x the pot size or ~2x for $700 is enough to push them over their threshold of giving you credit. Just my experience. Curious if you've actually experimented with both and noticed getting through way more with the jam?
@@TN-kl8fp That is not the argument I made, if you re-read it. My central question is if the additional size gets enough extra folds to justify it. As an aside, I mentioned that _some_ players will interpret the extra large sizing as more bluffy, despite that being theoretically incorrect. It's not a guess, they will explain their thought process after they call and say that. I see it frequently live. That said, I am not disputing that _overall_ the larger size will get more folds. It will. The question is if it gets _enough additional_ folds to justify its cost. The fraction of people, however small, who will fold for the smaller size but call the larger size if part of that equation.
if you’re always over betting with your weak hands and always betting under pot with your good hands when villain is capped how do u manage to stay balanced?
First hand the shove on the river it really depends how inelastic your opponents are. If you're not going to shove with KK and AA because you don't think KQ can call a jam then what's the point of shoving as a bluff it would be better to use a smaller sizing and save yourself non showdown money when you do get called by AQ and KQ and if you bet say 1/4 pot they might level themselves into thinking they are getting milked. To me this is an inelastic board for most humans if they have a missed draw they will fold regardless of sizing and won't bluff raise enough on the river and if they have KQ and AQ they may call regardless of sizing. I think a smaller size with your bluff accomplishes the same thing as a jam.
I feel like our villains often wait for the turn to put in their x/r so just curious how people feel about getting blown off their equity. I also agree that players in my pool at 2/5 east coast are never folding AQ or KQ 👍💪
Don’t even play in the casino, just home games at my college. These videos even apply to $50 buy ins with broke college kids and have been killing it lately because of you, especially the $100/hr challenge
Getting caught bluffing is great if you play with the same players consistently. Losing 2 full stacks showing no equity triple barrels with 5 high will make you infinitely more money than only showing a set when betting in the long run. People will always have some doubt whether you are blasting off with air or value and that makes you hard to play against and people will make massive mistakes vs you.
@@theturokchoiAre you asking if they bluff raise you on flop? Like you bet with nothing and they know it, so they reraise you? In that case you just fold. If the player does that to you too often then you adjust by either not betting unless you have a strong hand.
Well mate with such killer reads you got then you better be crushing the population with your sick exploits on low stakes no? So have you moved up to mid and high stakes yet with your killer reads here?
Bluffs are not supposed tô work. This is not the purpose behind a bluff. You all your bluffs gets through, you must be doing something absolutely wrong or your opponents are just giving you free money for no reason at all. You will win some bluffs, but not enough to show a profit. The value bets to win big pots is the key of getting a high R.O.I
In equilibrium you are right - bluffs are worth $0 EV. But, Mark isn't playing the GTO equilibrium, he's playing an exploitative style which has higher returns.
3:55. This kind of advice is going to get a lot of people snapped off. Just not a lot of people are going to be folding AQ or KQ on this runout. Too many draws missed and you are repping too narrow of a range.
Yeah here in Oklahoma if they’ve got AQ with one blocker to the flush it’s getting called 100% of the time. Now if they’ve got less than a Queen they’ll probably fold to the big boy bet so it’s just something to keep in mind.
@@AnthonySmith-vv8kslike i’ve mentioned in literally every video where i discuss this - they’re either folding qx a lot, in which case we jam as a bluff all the time. or they’re calling qx a lot - in which case we’re jamming kk for value for 2.5x pot every time. the problem is, people say “oh they’re folding aq” when they have kk and decide to bet pot, and then say “oh they’re calling aq” when they have 7 high and decide to give up. both of these things can’t be true. it’s on us as poker players to figure it out in real time.
@@hungryhorsepokerYup I hear this all the time. If they aren’t folding AQ then you should be betting HUGE with your value hands. You should be getting stacks in before the river then so no scare cards come
@@pokerqAK47 you can beat top pair a few times a session. If they always pay off and you’re playing 200bb deep, just jam when you beat top pair? I’m only pointing out that one thing has to be true; either they fold TP or they don’t. If they really call all in 200bb deep, then obviously we don’t bluff but we get massive value form out overpairs and sets. Are you jamming KK for 2X pot to get value from TP of a queen? If they don’t fold, why not? If you can get your pool to put 200+ bb with too pair, consistently, then this seems like the thing to do. I have nights I don’t run a single big bluff. But, my value is high. Or vice versa. You’re probably a better player than me, if you’re a pro. But this just seems to make sense to me.
This strategy goes in circles quickly against some observing players. The amount of bluffs vs value is insanely huge, so it won't be long until someone calls you down with top pair in this spot. It's basically super exploitative and assuming you have more nitty fishes against you that will never adapt to aggression. Seems to work but it's pretty obviously a bad play if you don't adjust when getting called one or two times a session or if they know your MO from previous sessions.
@@NeuroticNOOB he definitely also overbets for value too. Not in the same spots or against the same players. It’s not that easy to know what the other player is thinking. You have to see the showdowns AND be able to know what determines a bluff vs value, then you have to be able to craft a strategy and have the balls to pull it off. If they can do that, they are one of the best players in the pool. Yeah, you have to balance against that guy. But if they can do that, you’re gonna KNOW he’s good. They will do everything else right too. Low stakes isn’t maximized by playing the bad players like they are good. That said it is SUPER exploitable and if someone had your number they are going to CLEAN YOU OUT. Having watched his videos, even tho he is WAY better than me, I think he’d be in trouble because I know what makes him overbet with value and bluffs. But that’s because he fucking told me! If I hadn’t seen his vids, I’d be avoiding the guy TBH. I hate facing huge bets from players better than me. It rarely turns out well. lol.
Actually, 54s is a hand we want to use in our big bet range on A97r because we have good backdoors and very useful fold Equity. You said we want to check it, that's not true, look it up ;)
Well mate with such killer reads you got then you better be crushing the population with your sick exploits on low stakes no? So have you moved up to mid and high stakes yet with your killer reads here?
If an opponent understands MDF and has KQ on the first run out they will call the 2x pot shove. Also there is the f*** you I call strategy often used in Texas😂.
yeah, great thing about MDF is i'm sure lots of fish have studied it and are paying careful attention to it when thinking about precisely where they are at in their range when weighing their river decisions.
It depends on their calling frequency. Is a 5% return on an investment good? Yes, if the risk is low. However if you're a VC, you're looking for much higher returns because the risks you are taking are so much larger. You are focused on just the price, but you need to think about both the price as well as the effective risk. If you're getting that bluff through 90% of the time, you're printing.
@@newstandardaccount You don't have to defend Marc, he is absolutely brilliant, one do the best NLHE cash game players, and most all the info he offers, is spot on. I just contend, from my 30+ years of playing experience, that when players call large overbets on the turn, and you are deep, you are entering a concept called, "The negative freeroll", where betting 3x-5x the size of the pot, can potentially be extremely unprofitable, because bad players at low limits drive right through 🛑 signs, and call you with impunity and utter stubbornness. The fact is, you are betting 3x-5x the current pot, to earn only 1/2 to 2/3 of what is in there im most cases. I'm not going to put my Bankroll at risk, to test out if we can get folds 85% or more of the time to see if it's "Long term profitable"
@@newstandardaccountI don't see that someone can keep the fold frequency of at least somewhat experienced opponents at the same high level when having a bluff to value ratio of like 9 to 1. People know that it's unlikely for top pair to be beaten so often and such a big bet is polarised af. It might work in rare spots but in this example I feel like it is going to fail sooner or later and then it's questionable if we should continue our exploits or not...
@@garygwinn5818 Also u miss the point the Marc tries to communicate then. If your opponents are willing to call even middle pair when you jam 3-5x the pot then you've also found yourself a massive exploit you can do against population. You can now jam your nutted hands and some thin value bets for 3-5x pot and get paid with many worst hands and that's how you make money. It's either that, or this spot is perfect to bluff because they fold most of their range. It's one or the other.
These videos have been a massive help to my game, besides learning, they keep me focused and help me overcome the biggest thing that holds me back at the table (Self-Confidence issues, where I start double and triple guessing and just own myself). I even just played a 5 hour session where I made a total of 6 hands the entire night, 2 of which were folded, 1 set (All-In pre-flop with AA, made top set), 0 flushes, 0 straights, and 1 2 pair, 2 one pairs, and 2 other big pocket pairs. I had 3 big pairs the whole night, AA (which won), QQ (Which won a set of blinds), and JJ (Which was folded to a 4 bet and 5 bet shove). I had to adjust to my game, where, once the absolute size of the bet was over 50 BBs, any bet over 67% pot was functionally an overbet, lots of turn folds when I was preparing to shove on the river, and I had no edge in bomb pots (single board PLO) since the entire population was experienced in PLO (This poker room runs PLO quite frequently). I have a long way to go, there was one guy who I think had a dead tell on me because every time i was bluffing he called or raised, but I still walked away with a modest win while running bad with exploitative plays. I made some mistakes, getting a little too out of line in spots that didn't justify it pre-flop, but instead of getting tilted, I was able to refocus because I knew why they were mistakes and was more focused on improvement. Keep it up!
Every video is a banger.
Class is in session! Get your notebooks out boys, this ain't a casual browsing video this is a masterclass
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Glad to hear you made it all the way to the top Mark. Thanks for the great video content.
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I only bluff when I have the nuts.
Im growing to love this channel even as I admit that generally by minute 8 I'm completely lost.
Started watching you everyday about 2 weeks ago. Played a home game with the boys and doubled up 😂. You explain things in the best and easiest ways to understand. I can’t wait to go to the casino and be wise and responsible. First time I played poker at the casino I hit a full house that I had no idea I hit 😂 ended up winning the high hand, left +400 that day
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best live poker strat on youtube. loving the series too. Did you say how many hours you were trying for to hit the $100ph
On the one hand, I think this is the most helpful poker channel and you deserve all the success in the world and I want you to make more content
On the other, I don’t want anyone else to know all this good shit so I can keep my new edge.
Is sharing the channel +EV or not?? 🤔
thanks for the kind words! completely understand the sentiment but look at it this way - if the channel flops we will just stop giving away any and all info publicly and just keep all the sauce for ourselves. who wants that?? 😂
@@hungryhorsepoker haha fiiiiine I suppose I'll trust my new guru :D
But seriously I did just get back from Vegas with by far my biggest win, so I owe you. Keep up the good work.
I used some techniques of yours in small stakes and I was crushing with them…thank you man
plz give an example. how small? and which situation? i m afraid of by myself, that they never fold toppair or middlepair, if it looks like a missed draw.
Good stuff. Love your style and reasoning
This young man is so intelligent and so fluent with his speech; he's got such good command of the jargon related to his passion of poker, (which as a man in his 53rd year, I find infectious) that I find it difficult to keep up with the information presented, despite having been playing live poker in Atlantic City for 20 years now.
Jump cuts are also an insidious part of the You Tube experience any more; I find that one sentence bleeds into the next, seemingly without a breath - which for me, breaks the normal flow of conversation to which I am used. I get no time to grok the ideas and principles he's sharing because it's immediately on to the next sentence, reminiscent of my great Uncle Bobby who smoked so much, he'd light the next cigarette with the one currently embedded in his yap. 😚🚬
But good news awaits! - If you put my man on 75% speed, I find it's much easier to keep up, providing the time I need to stay involved, and thereby interested.
Love what you're doing - keep it up!
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Hey Marc, I absolutely love your videos and I do think your strategy makes a lot of sense. So thank you very much for your great insides. In terms of your assumptions in the "capped deep" example however, I am not that sure if a bluff with 54d should blast the river. I would argue that even recreationals do not necessarily raise with the A high flush on the turn, since their hand is basically invulnarable and we have so far shown quite some aggression, which we may be likely to follow up on the river. So I would argue that their range is still uncapped on the river, why I feel like overbetting in this spot may be a punt. Would be happy if you explain why my thought process is not accurate. Thanks
The honest thing is that recreationals are really, REALLY worried about not getting paid off, and when they're nutted they put in raises in the hopes that you'll "put a play on them" and 3-bet shove, so they can snap it off. I know from experience that they have no concept of protecting their ranges. If they do raise, if it's a minclick, you can actually come over the top 100% of the time and induce the snap fold. This works because they raise big for value and small as a bluff, it's so transparent. So yeah if they call the turn, your goal should be to threaten their stack on the river, so going large allows them to worry you're nutted and will get it in if they raise. OTOH, if you shove it, they'll think you're bluffing and call off really wide. Funnily enough, going big for value and small for a bluff works really well against recs because they think you're trying to bluff them when you go big and trying to get value when you go small. Anyway hopes this helps.
@@PrimusInvin thank you for elaborating. I guess I need to go to the casino soon :)
This content is amazing! love your logic! saw you on solve 4 why and now I'm hooked! liked and subscribed immediately!
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Yo I just started watching your videos and I just want to say you are pushing out great content . Keep it up my G
omg ty !!
Great stuff big dawg much appreciated 🎉
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Really enjoy the blend of live play videos and concept videos you are putting out every week! Looking forward to seeing what the subscription model looks like.
Are you defining deep as 200bb+ and shallow 100bb and below?
yessir! ty for the kind words 🥰
Always great stuff, Marc! Love your $100/hr series, too! Any chance you could make a video on "tough folds" sometime? Appreciate you guys!
What's the bet on the river at the 10:30 point with the 54dd? Thanks, great video.
Smooch! Love your content, Marc! You’ve made me such a better poker player in my 5/5 games at Hollywwod Park. You’re such an amazing poker teacher. You have such a great command of poker theory and how population plays in live games to find the exploits. Can’t wait to see what your subscription model and next Boot Camp class looks like!
Cringe
Great video Marc! I went to your website and filled out information to schedule a phone call last week but never heard back 🤷🏻♂️
hey brian - we’ll be opening back up booking next tuesday (5 days from now) so schedule then, or… shoot me an email right now bootcamp at hungryhorsepoker dot com and we’ll get you in!
Really really really would love for you to do a few videos in Dallas area, I’ll even fly you out myself 😂
Your vlog closings are the nuts.
You are a King. Great video
I had a bit of an epiphany watching this video. I thought, "this guy plays like Postle" and then saw the truth of the matter - you *do* play like Postle, and for the same reason. You are able to "see" your opponents' hole cards through their actions, which leads to this high variance style of play. You have lots of big bluffs and then smaller value bets, just like Postle.
Probably doesn't need to be said but I don't intend this as an insult, but rather a compliment.
This strategy only works vs thinking players. Most players at the live casino who have a capped range will gladly call off 250% pot with A 9 on Qs 9s 7h 3d 2h just because "you missed your flush. I call". Through extensive experimentation and utlizing this strategy consistently, its actually very rare that it works so proceed with extreme caution. Some of the calls ive seen have left me absolutely perplexed. Also ive mostly made these plays with a fairly nitty image which makes the opponents plays so much worse when they call off 2nd pair for 200bbs on river
I like your videos a lot, please keep it up. Very interesting, thank you very much and greetings from Germany. 👍
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My bluffs here in San Diego been getting thru a huge amount. Vs calling station reg who plays all Ax n Kx every time. I have QQ flop is K77. She checks flop I check. Turn she bets small I check raise 5x she calls. I Bet 80% on River she tanks flips over K (I’m sure a bad kicker) and folds… says sure I have a 7
By far my favorite online poker coach! Thanks Marc!
Can you make a video like this playing in a 100bb config? I play a lot of online poker and some clubs have a 100bb max buy in.
Yes would love to see some vids for 100bb stacks, a lot of games I play this is unfortunately the depths I see
My bluffs have gotten better from your videos, so thanks!
I just got done watching one of your old videos from a few years ago. It seems like you got some charisma training since then.
that wasn’t me that was my little cousin
what in the world is charisma training? can you recommend me one?
@@dominhan.nguyen It's where you train your charisma so you have more rizz.
He started kissing subscribers on the mouth.
@@dominhan.nguyencharisma on command is a yt channel that will give you some autism level basics
Love this. Unfortunately no one at my 1/3 table is folding AQ/AK with top pair even if the flush comes in 😂 but that’s it’s own issue to exploit
I might just be dumb but can someone explain the logic behind the river bets? Both times u ran through the scenario of if I had the effective nuts/simply betting for value I would bet somewhere near pot, but because I don’t I’m gonna 3x pot bet to get folds. If there’s no consistency on ur river bet sizes don’t u basically just start playing with ur cards face up? Like won’t they just know from whenever u first show ur cards that near pot is value so what is he betting 3x with?
This strategy is all based about the opponent having a capped range. It would be fair to say that you can't just rely on your opponent calling a small bet on the flop to determine whether they are capped. It very much depends on the opponent type (ie: do they lead / check raise often or are they passive). Proceed with caution otherwise you'll be bluffing into all player types on the river
Exactly. Capped is such a subjective concept that it needs to have that caveat in there. Even at these tiny stakes live, he ran into a guy that gave him rope and owned him x/c him down in one of the episodes. People aren’t complete idiots and can adjust, even the fish sometimes. His MO is that it isn’t gonna happen often enough at these stakes, which is fine/true. But he gotta mention that important detail anyway, so that he doesn’t run into people blindly following these strats and getting wrecked bc they didn’t counter adjust.
Cant wait to tinker with this new lesson.
Will we get more situations other than bb vs btn?
Love your videos Marc, i have become a much more profitable player since watching your vids religiously :)
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these videos are so good
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It's weird because I've seen so many of your bluffs get snap called with you listing a ton with 54. Then thankfully you break even because you finally win a big hand. But good luck none the less!
Good vid bra.
Poker has come a long way since I was exploiting people professionally 15 years ago with only PFR / Aggression factor
So in the first hand example, if we had a nutted hand like 99, are we jamming the river for value? I would assume the answer is yes because if we are betting a value size to get called when we have the nuts and only shoving/betting huge when we miss the opponents will figure that out and call shoves more often right?
no. watch the video again.
@@hungryhorsepoker i see.. i just think that makes the strategy unbalanced and a good opponent will catch onto that
@@bigcrescendoin a huge majority of games, unbalanced is the most profitable. most humans can’t react properly
Question . What sites are good to play on? How do you know that people aren’t using RTA and Bots? How does the site detect and protect us as poker users ?
9:30 w/ ATs on Q97ss-Jx, are you following through on the river for b50-b200-b200 if you brick or is it a BBX?
Check back and lose. They aren’t calling 2x on the turn to fold a brick river.
When they call 2x oop and we’re holding spades + the T , they don’t have many draws and have a lot of 2 pair +
@anthonyhall7133 I agree, but Marc doesn't care about blockers sometimes. Maybe we get a bottom set or 2 pairs to fold, maybe pair, + fd, etc. Not sure what our bluffs are? Maybe ATd JTs T9s TT?
@@RunItTw1ce4858 this is ironically my first video I’ve ever watched of his. So I am unsure what he usually does. This seems to me to be one of the times that blockers are relevant though. 78ss J8ss are the only pair + flush draw I think have merit to call turn.
So that’s 2 combos we’re looking to fold out vs a lot of combos of value they still have. Definitely an interesting spot nonetheless
@@anthonyhall7133 They should fold some 2 pairs when deep as well. That's a lot more combos.
Pure Gold
On the Q97 hand, do you think you get enough more folds jamming for $1010 vs going like $600 to justify the extra money?
we either apply all the pressure because we think qx will mostly fold, or we just bet small and get draws to fold.
going with a size in between accomplishes neither goal.
@@hungryhorsepoker Your "max pressure" argument only holds if the extra pressure is substantially better at folding most Qx... With $600 we need 61% folds; with $1010, 72.5%. Are we getting an additional 11.5% folds with the larger size? I'm not so sure. Some players even call more with the larger sizing, even though it's theoretically wrong, because they "put you on a bluff". But mostly I feel like 1.5x the pot size or ~2x for $700 is enough to push them over their threshold of giving you credit. Just my experience. Curious if you've actually experimented with both and noticed getting through way more with the jam?
@@GamingMouse It is anecdotal to say that people call more vs bigger bets. It is simply not true.
@@TN-kl8fp That is not the argument I made, if you re-read it. My central question is if the additional size gets enough extra folds to justify it. As an aside, I mentioned that _some_ players will interpret the extra large sizing as more bluffy, despite that being theoretically incorrect. It's not a guess, they will explain their thought process after they call and say that. I see it frequently live. That said, I am not disputing that _overall_ the larger size will get more folds. It will. The question is if it gets _enough additional_ folds to justify its cost. The fraction of people, however small, who will fold for the smaller size but call the larger size if part of that equation.
if you’re always over betting with your weak hands and always betting under pot with your good hands when villain is capped how do u manage to stay balanced?
First hand the shove on the river it really depends how inelastic your opponents are. If you're not going to shove with KK and AA because you don't think KQ can call a jam then what's the point of shoving as a bluff it would be better to use a smaller sizing and save yourself non showdown money when you do get called by AQ and KQ and if you bet say 1/4 pot they might level themselves into thinking they are getting milked. To me this is an inelastic board for most humans if they have a missed draw they will fold regardless of sizing and won't bluff raise enough on the river and if they have KQ and AQ they may call regardless of sizing. I think a smaller size with your bluff accomplishes the same thing as a jam.
I feel like our villains often wait for the turn to put in their x/r so just curious how people feel about getting blown off their equity.
I also agree that players in my pool at 2/5 east coast are never folding AQ or KQ
👍💪
I want to meet this opponent that always raises his strong stuff and calls with his weak stuff , never mixes his strategy, and is easy to read.
i admit they’re hard to find. you have to go to a casino and play live poker.
Worked first hand i played after watching this video.
Small sample size but still....
Donkey's are alive
been doing this for years unfortunately, players at card rooms here in NorCal don't fold top pair
Don’t even play in the casino, just home games at my college. These videos even apply to $50 buy ins with broke college kids and have been killing it lately because of you, especially the $100/hr challenge
$20-$50 college games are where it's at
why is the question
I would be interested in private coaching . . Where could I write you in DM?
What happened to J 9 Deuce? 😇
Next a double board PLO bomb plot tutorial!😂
The problem is that too many river card will not be blanks. So what do you do then, if putting the opponent on KQ?
yep my case many times not in my favor. more the guy i am in the hand with.
@@pokerbosscycleryou talk like Yoda bruh 😂
In the second example, is the opponent really folding AQ with the A of Spades?
15" POKER HAAAAARRRRDDD 🙌
omg we missed u
I got a big big blind and a little little suit ♥️♣️♦️♠️
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smooch (but also where is J 9 2 😢😢😢😢😢😢)
Dude I wrote the same comment lol.
@@Kong_foolGreat minds think alike 😘😘(I just saw your comment)
I don't get it
what happens if they catch your bluff?
Ask for forgiveness and keep doing it.
sucks to your asmar
Getting caught bluffing is great if you play with the same players consistently. Losing 2 full stacks showing no equity triple barrels with 5 high will make you infinitely more money than only showing a set when betting in the long run. People will always have some doubt whether you are blasting off with air or value and that makes you hard to play against and people will make massive mistakes vs you.
@@razersedge2k974 one more question, what if they reraise as a way to exploit this strat? also thanks for the other answer, helps a ton
@@theturokchoiAre you asking if they bluff raise you on flop? Like you bet with nothing and they know it, so they reraise you? In that case you just fold. If the player does that to you too often then you adjust by either not betting unless you have a strong hand.
4:20 I don't think the villains going to fold king queen for 2x pot.
One of these days I’ll have the money to pay and be coached by you. You are doing an amazing job simplifying the game. Keep it up!
🥰🥰
What would be a “small bet” because you’re betting half pot and most games I play that’s a good sized bet. Games where most play 100bb deep.
The question is - this works may be at 500 NL / 1000 NL ...? It does not work at lower stakes ...
May be live it works 😅
Well mate with such killer reads you got then you better be crushing the population with your sick exploits on low stakes no? So have you moved up to mid and high stakes yet with your killer reads here?
@@nathanebenezer3963 lol ... Am I talking to Phil Ivey ? 😂
@@mariocardoso291 yes you are... how did you know?
@@nathanebenezer3963 you look more mike postle
@@mariocardoso291 You got me bro. Im actually phil ivey and mike postle
Bluffs are not supposed tô work. This is not the purpose behind a bluff. You all your bluffs gets through, you must be doing something absolutely wrong or your opponents are just giving you free money for no reason at all. You will win some bluffs, but not enough to show a profit. The value bets to win big pots is the key of getting a high R.O.I
if you guys have ever questioned if poker is still beatable….question no more. ^^
@@hungryhorsepoker😂😂
In equilibrium you are right - bluffs are worth $0 EV. But, Mark isn't playing the GTO equilibrium, he's playing an exploitative style which has higher returns.
KQ will call bro
Then you should be over-betting anything that beats KQ on the turn every single time
Instructions unclear. Have lost 20k bluffing.
3:55. This kind of advice is going to get a lot of people snapped off. Just not a lot of people are going to be folding AQ or KQ on this runout. Too many draws missed and you are repping too narrow of a range.
every week there’s one of these guys
a guy at rw is going for 100k challenge result will see if he hits it. maybe one day marc will show up at that game.
Yeah here in Oklahoma if they’ve got AQ with one blocker to the flush it’s getting called 100% of the time. Now if they’ve got less than a Queen they’ll probably fold to the big boy bet so it’s just something to keep in mind.
@@AnthonySmith-vv8kslike i’ve mentioned in literally every video where i discuss this - they’re either folding qx a lot, in which case we jam as a bluff all the time. or they’re calling qx a lot - in which case we’re jamming kk for value for 2.5x pot every time.
the problem is, people say “oh they’re folding aq” when they have kk and decide to bet pot, and then say “oh they’re calling aq” when they have 7 high and decide to give up.
both of these things can’t be true. it’s on us as poker players to figure it out in real time.
@@hungryhorsepokerYup I hear this all the time. If they aren’t folding AQ then you should be betting HUGE with your value hands. You should be getting stacks in before the river then so no scare cards come
SMOOOOCH!😙
😘😘😘
i'm literally playing rn and made 10 bluffs making paper
Almost no one in my 2-5 game is folding AQ for $325 on this river.
Then you can wait to beat top pair and jam. Easy game.
@@MelFinehouthard to beat a top pair. Damn, I think I make most $ on 1 pair. I play pro 😂
@@pokerqAK47 you can beat top pair a few times a session. If they always pay off and you’re playing 200bb deep, just jam when you beat top pair?
I’m only pointing out that one thing has to be true; either they fold TP or they don’t. If they really call all in 200bb deep, then obviously we don’t bluff but we get massive value form out overpairs and sets.
Are you jamming KK for 2X pot to get value from TP of a queen? If they don’t fold, why not?
If you can get your pool to put 200+ bb with too pair, consistently, then this seems like the thing to do.
I have nights I don’t run a single big bluff. But, my value is high. Or vice versa.
You’re probably a better player than me, if you’re a pro. But this just seems to make sense to me.
This strategy goes in circles quickly against some observing players. The amount of bluffs vs value is insanely huge, so it won't be long until someone calls you down with top pair in this spot.
It's basically super exploitative and assuming you have more nitty fishes against you that will never adapt to aggression. Seems to work but it's pretty obviously a bad play if you don't adjust when getting called one or two times a session or if they know your MO from previous sessions.
@@NeuroticNOOB he definitely also overbets for value too. Not in the same spots or against the same players.
It’s not that easy to know what the other player is thinking. You have to see the showdowns AND be able to know what determines a bluff vs value, then you have to be able to craft a strategy and have the balls to pull it off.
If they can do that, they are one of the best players in the pool. Yeah, you have to balance against that guy. But if they can do that, you’re gonna KNOW he’s good. They will do everything else right too.
Low stakes isn’t maximized by playing the bad players like they are good.
That said it is SUPER exploitable and if someone had your number they are going to CLEAN YOU OUT.
Having watched his videos, even tho he is WAY better than me, I think he’d be in trouble because I know what makes him overbet with value and bluffs.
But that’s because he fucking told me! If I hadn’t seen his vids, I’d be avoiding the guy TBH. I hate facing huge bets from players better than me. It rarely turns out well. lol.
the time has come to NEIIIIIIIIGHHHHHHH
yes that’s wut we do
Actually, 54s is a hand we want to use in our big bet range on A97r because we have good backdoors and very useful fold Equity.
You said we want to check it, that's not true, look it up ;)
😂😂😂😂😂 your bluff will not work against me coz I’m a fish and will always call your bluff esp if I have the highest pair on board!
😅😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
Isnt this super exploitable? You said that you wouldnt go big for value so you would go big for a bluff?
the only way to exploit people is to be exploitable yourself.... so u think playing GTO in live poker is better?
No one is folding top pair top kicker.
Well mate with such killer reads you got then you better be crushing the population with your sick exploits on low stakes no? So have you moved up to mid and high stakes yet with your killer reads here?
ngl that neck tatt is fire ash
If the river were only a blank every time...
💯
9x and 7x are never folding to a 1/3 river bet for $50.
📞⛽️
If an opponent understands MDF and has KQ on the first run out they will call the 2x pot shove. Also there is the f*** you I call strategy often used in Texas😂.
yeah, great thing about MDF is i'm sure lots of fish have studied it and are paying careful attention to it when thinking about precisely where they are at in their range when weighing their river decisions.
How do you spell MDF?
Mmmm Wagering 1200$ to win 200$ is "SINGULARLY UNAPPEALING"
It depends on their calling frequency. Is a 5% return on an investment good? Yes, if the risk is low. However if you're a VC, you're looking for much higher returns because the risks you are taking are so much larger.
You are focused on just the price, but you need to think about both the price as well as the effective risk. If you're getting that bluff through 90% of the time, you're printing.
@@newstandardaccount You don't have to defend Marc, he is absolutely brilliant, one do the best NLHE cash game players, and most all the info he offers, is spot on. I just contend, from my 30+ years of playing experience, that when players call large overbets on the turn, and you are deep, you are entering a concept called, "The negative freeroll", where betting 3x-5x the size of the pot, can potentially be extremely unprofitable, because bad players at low limits drive right through 🛑 signs, and call you with impunity and utter stubbornness. The fact is, you are betting 3x-5x the current pot, to earn only 1/2 to 2/3 of what is in there im most cases. I'm not going to put my Bankroll at risk, to test out if we can get folds 85% or more of the time to see if it's "Long term profitable"
@@newstandardaccountI don't see that someone can keep the fold frequency of at least somewhat experienced opponents at the same high level when having a bluff to value ratio of like 9 to 1. People know that it's unlikely for top pair to be beaten so often and such a big bet is polarised af.
It might work in rare spots but in this example I feel like it is going to fail sooner or later and then it's questionable if we should continue our exploits or not...
@@garygwinn5818 thought experiment. if ur population reads are so good why aren't you crushing up to mid stakes or high stakes then?
@@garygwinn5818 Also u miss the point the Marc tries to communicate then. If your opponents are willing to call even middle pair when you jam 3-5x the pot then you've also found yourself a massive exploit you can do against population. You can now jam your nutted hands and some thin value bets for 3-5x pot and get paid with many worst hands and that's how you make money. It's either that, or this spot is perfect to bluff because they fold most of their range. It's one or the other.
LESGOOOOO 1MIN AGO
omg
1st
omg welcome
What the fuck does capped mean.
Top Willy
No swizz?