Shubhi, I did not delete your comment. In fact, your comment was very useful and was the reason that I reshot the entire video from start to finish. When you do that, UA-cam does not allow you to replace an existing video. I had to upload it as a fresh video. I still have the other video online, but took it private, because it would have been confusing to have two videos on the same topic. Your comment is still there. In fact, I have never deleted a comment on UA-cam and there are many that deserved it. Yours was a very useful comment. Thank you for noticing.
Fantastic analysis, prof! in fact, in your video on CNBC about Lyft's valuation, you talked a bit more in detail about the stickiness (or the lack of it) with these services. Given that, my story/narrative assumes an even more conservative valuation for Uber. Terrific video, highly informative as always!
Thank you Professor Damodaran. I wonder if you could do a video shedding some light on very high growth and high multiple 20x+ ev/rev multiple cloud companies that are barely or not profitable (there are many of them) and how best to think about them. Thank you so much!
Professor, with the updated share count (you mention 1175 MM shares, or did you mean 175 MM shares in your video) of ~185MM shares how would your value change? It appears on a pure market value numbers, your $61.66 B valuation is significantly lower than the trading value of $76B (post the 7.6% loss on day 1) ... Is this correct?
As with all your videos, I am grateful that you share them. I would appreciate your help in understanding the following: I am confused with the possible definitions for gross billings and net revenue. Are gross billings the amount charged to the customer, or are gross billings the amount taken by Uber after deducting the amount owed to the drivers? Are net revenues what is left for Uber after the amount owed to the drivers? I have heard that Didi has 1.1% of their potential market. If I compare Uber to what they call TAM, they have less than 1% of this market. I assume TAM is all driving done in light vehicles. I hold the premise that once the hail rider companies address users without cars and / or users that normally would ride a taxi that they will have a harder time in convincing car owners with a readily accessible vehicle to switch for their services. The only way that users will switch is if the per mile cost is lower than their cost per mile for their own vehicle (this excludes convenience and opportunity). I found somewhere on the internet that the average length of an Uber ride was 6-miles. This makes the per mile cost too expensive for me to consider giving up my car and to use companies like Uber exclusively. (I am assuming the cost per trip refers to the gross billing charged per customer). All this talk of autonomous cars implies giving up on car ownership, and the cost per mile is one of the dimensions to consider. I wonder if you have addressed this point in the past.
Have you read Hubert Horan’s 19 part analysis of the rideshare business model on Naked Capitalism? I think it’s a must for anyone thinking about investing in Uber or Lyft. I encourage everyone to check it out. I would love to hear your response to it.
Sir I had given comment on this video. Why has the comment been deleted? I asked to correct the mistake in the valuation and you deleted my comment. That's not fair. You could have just replied by saying that we agree to what you have suggested and we are making the change and uploading the video again. There was no need to delete the comments
Shubhi,
I did not delete your comment. In fact, your comment was very useful and was the reason that I reshot the entire video from start to finish. When you do that, UA-cam does not allow you to replace an existing video. I had to upload it as a fresh video. I still have the other video online, but took it private, because it would have been confusing to have two videos on the same topic. Your comment is still there. In fact, I have never deleted a comment on UA-cam and there are many that deserved it. Yours was a very useful comment. Thank you for noticing.
Absolutely brilliant valuation analysis! Please keep posting such videos
Fantastic analysis, prof! in fact, in your video on CNBC about Lyft's valuation, you talked a bit more in detail about the stickiness (or the lack of it) with these services. Given that, my story/narrative assumes an even more conservative valuation for Uber. Terrific video, highly informative as always!
Prof. Damodaran, i hope to attend your execed valuation class in the near future in NYU, sooner than later. thanks for sharing your lessons.
Very informative, thanks for taking the time to show us the pros and cons of Uber. I just subscribed
Thank you Professor Damodaran. I wonder if you could do a video shedding some light on very high growth and high multiple 20x+ ev/rev multiple cloud companies that are barely or not profitable (there are many of them) and how best to think about them. Thank you so much!
Professor you make these valuations look so easier.. but when I started to do it believe me I couldn’t even finish half
Hmmm, competition is going to be fierce and difficult for Uber to break even on making profit. Just my view. Nice video prof
Sir, once you calculated the top - down valuation, do you keep the value in mind when you do the bottom - up calculation ?
Great video. I don't have it valued as high but very interesting analysis.
Professor, with the updated share count (you mention 1175 MM shares, or did you mean 175 MM shares in your video) of ~185MM shares how would your value change? It appears on a pure market value numbers, your $61.66 B valuation is significantly lower than the trading value of $76B (post the 7.6% loss on day 1) ... Is this correct?
It is actually closer to 1800 million shares. Focus on equity value & my value is $61-62 billion.
@@AswathDamodaranonValuation Thanks professor. Seems to be 1830MM shares, and your valuation is around $33-34 / share.
Also curious about the monte carlo distribution you would normally put around this; and any tail risks of Tesla beating them on autonomy in USA.
I heard you say in an interview that you purchased Uber at $30. Is there another post on that purchase somewhere? thank you!
As with all your videos, I am grateful that you share them.
I would appreciate your help in understanding the following:
I am confused with the possible definitions for gross billings and net revenue.
Are gross billings the amount charged to the customer, or are gross billings the amount taken by Uber after deducting the amount owed to the drivers?
Are net revenues what is left for Uber after the amount owed to the drivers?
I have heard that Didi has 1.1% of their potential market. If I compare Uber to what they call TAM, they have less than 1% of this market. I assume TAM is all driving done in light vehicles.
I hold the premise that once the hail rider companies address users without cars and / or users that normally would ride a taxi that they will have a harder time in convincing car owners with a readily accessible vehicle to switch for their services.
The only way that users will switch is if the per mile cost is lower than their cost per mile for their own vehicle (this excludes convenience and opportunity).
I found somewhere on the internet that the average length of an Uber ride was 6-miles. This makes the per mile cost too expensive for me to consider giving up my car and to use companies like Uber exclusively. (I am assuming the cost per trip refers to the gross billing charged per customer).
All this talk of autonomous cars implies giving up on car ownership, and the cost per mile is one of the dimensions to consider.
I wonder if you have addressed this point in the past.
Excellent assessment professor!!
quality channel. learning so much!!!! thank you!
Thank you for the detailed Uber valuation. Could you also value Pinterest before its IPO?
thanks
Nice work professor!
Thanks for sharing your knowledge with us.
Great analysis thanks
Great video, thanks professor
How about an update in 2023?
Sir .. do you any view on whether bond investors should ride this player!
Thank you sir
Thank you sir!
Thank you, Legend!
Have you read Hubert Horan’s 19 part analysis of the rideshare business model on Naked Capitalism? I think it’s a must for anyone thinking about investing in Uber or Lyft. I encourage everyone to check it out. I would love to hear your response to it.
It's a bet on self driving cars and a monopoly for Uber.
Robo taxi from Tesla will destroy Uber business, To recover its value can only be merged under Tesla.
Sir I had given comment on this video. Why has the comment been deleted? I asked to correct the mistake in the valuation and you deleted my comment. That's not fair. You could have just replied by saying that we agree to what you have suggested and we are making the change and uploading the video again. There was no need to delete the comments