Dynamite stuff. Used the first pattern in a hand tonight, where I never would of have considered before! Another note, I feel like I sometimes struggle with acting “natural and relaxed” on my bluffs while my opponent tanks and talks to me. I’m finding that the confidence of being absolutely sure I’m making a good play goes a long way to authentically feeling indifferent to outcome.
Yeah I find that enjoying bluffing as much as possible and making peace with any result before you bluff helps. Dreading the bad result ‘normalises giving up’ as a certain controversial poker figure might say.
What an amazing video!!! I have been studying your material for already some time but making very small progress on NL10 (PokerStars) while battling variance. (used to be a HU sng reg) What was even worse is that lately I was getting really bored from poker and wasn't enjoying it at all, playing ABC, waiting for 'good spots' etc... These bluffing spots you mentioned? Would never ever even consider them. Have some showdown - just check it back bro, no need to bluff...now? Omg... especially at micro stakes there are so many spots where opps are checking with some showdown value and folding to big overbets etc i feel like just this video improved me by 30%. Now it's time to study these bluffing spots even more to get it on my subconscious level:) btw - the ending where u only showed hands that you LOST so we aren't result-oriented just shows how amazing a coach you are 👏👏
Hey Pete , this has helped my game and coupled with CPS has given me a way on how to bluff effectively. For the most part it has a high frequency of working.
How is "bet check bet on favorable runnouts" (hand #2) a mandatory bet if we are giving up with 8 high on the river (87s) or T high (T8s) for example? Considering this a "must bluff" spot seems wrong to me.
I often play with a different sizing on the River with the 53's hand. I often use 30/40bb or shove. The strongest hand of Villain is A6s (2 combos) and all of his second strongest hands are a top pair (AJ-) and I'm pretty sure that near of all of the pool will never call a top pair against a shove.
These exploits definitely exist. Your line makes very little sense for value in spot 1 when you make a giant overbet but most people won’t care about that.
The point about being able to envisage the +ev of a line/action is very hard to grasp because it takes imagination to see the same +ev bluff (in situation 1) where it does work by not being callled
Thanks again. First example. In the real world the checking range of villain is even weaker than GTO and more change our bluff will print ev. The second examples scares me a little bit :) I am really surprised our equity is that high on a lot of turn cards. ., With a k or A river i would definitely bluff, against tags i would bluff from now on because they will value bet thinly, but against more passive players at 25nl i prefer a give up.
I have youtube premium and this feels like overpaying. tl;dr, bluffing is incentivized when vil is wide, or you have good blockers, or you have a hand with 0 showdown. When is the last time you guys didnt bluff when you had a crappy hand with no showdown value. Also he was happy to talk about how much +ev some bluffs were but neglected to explain the -ev calls you are supposed to make
@@stormkk can u elaborate on -EV calls “you are supposed to make”? Do you mean -EV from the pov of the whole hand? If not I thought by definition -EV calls should not be calls as fold is the better line at 0EV.
If there was zero loss when your bluff got called this would hold but you have to factor in the additional chips risked, not just the win frequency. That being said these spots are typically a risk/reward ratio that is in your favour.
On the last hand, I think exploitatively the triple barrel wouldn't really work because when you look at the hands folding on the river (21:53), there are a lot of hands that most people would have already folded on the turn (KQo, KJo, KJs, KTs). And without all those hands folding, this river spot is going to be underfolded (especially since BB is also supposed to fold some AJ/AT/A9 on the river which most people would call). So I think bluffing wider on the turn and giving up on the river would work better in practice.
This is absolute horseshit. This type of thinking is literally why you're likely to be hardstuck low stakes with a terrible redline. You're not expecting an Ace to fold when youre trippling here. Villain has loads of 8x, 7dXd some 99 etc that are going to call the turn but fold to a river bomb. You will have some weaker villains that may even fold A2-A5s facing a 150% river overbet (they shouldn't but some % of the reg population do). When you're in this node you also have to recognise that villains have had the opportunity to 3b pre but called, to XR flop with some 88 but called, XR turn with some 7788 nutted hands etc but called and now arrive at river. Some vils will greed donk here with some of their value some % of time so their range is further weakened. 2 barrel and giving up always on boards like this is an absolute crime
@@agnorax I think you missed that I referred to the specific sim showed at 21:53. You say "You're not expecting an Ace to fold when youre trippling here", but the sim clearly shows that villain is supposed to fold a portion of his AT, A9, A4, A3. Even AJ is mostly folding, which is not something people do. That's my point, that most villains won't fold those hands, which makes the spot underfolded. Which means that a normally breakeven bluff become -EV in that situation. I'm not saying that Villain never folds, there are definitely a lot of hands that fold, I'm just saying that if Villain folds less that they should, then a breakeven bluff becomes losing.
@@rogorz_ On one hand I could continue arguing with you on the other the risk of educating you of a massive leak in your game/thinking isn't worth it. good luck.
@@agnorax think about your weakened range theory. How often Is the Caller meant to Raise with such a nutted hand as 88-77 on a board where the paired aces on flop makes the OR triple barrelling so frequent?The J9 combo Is only slightly winning in a GTO world, if you block some of the Caller defense across flop and turn you'll probably get that this combo Is slightly losing vs a NL25-NL50 field as the flop and turn bet Will overperform in terms of Fold Equity given the paired Aces on the board
My experience is that people fold more bigger hands than most players expect. We don’t get shown what they fold. We do see their calls. I think there’s a bias in a lot of these situations and am generally really wary of unquantified exploitative claims. Mass data suggests there’s more fold equity than we like to assume in quite a few spots.
@@redraw0160 Probably, I would love to know how as I find it's much easier to view it through that lense. I see now that on his pio is says "in % of pot" in small text. Anyone know how to change that?
Dynamite stuff. Used the first pattern in a hand tonight, where I never would of have considered before!
Another note, I feel like I sometimes struggle with acting “natural and relaxed” on my bluffs while my opponent tanks and talks to me. I’m finding that the confidence of being absolutely sure I’m making a good play goes a long way to authentically feeling indifferent to outcome.
Yeah I find that enjoying bluffing as much as possible and making peace with any result before you bluff helps. Dreading the bad result ‘normalises giving up’ as a certain controversial poker figure might say.
i look nervous whenever :D bluff or value. is that gto?
@@whereismymind1 nah that's just anxiety m8 :)
What an amazing video!!!
I have been studying your material for already some time but making very small progress on NL10 (PokerStars) while battling variance. (used to be a HU sng reg)
What was even worse is that lately I was getting really bored from poker and wasn't enjoying it at all, playing ABC, waiting for 'good spots' etc...
These bluffing spots you mentioned? Would never ever even consider them. Have some showdown - just check it back bro, no need to bluff...now? Omg... especially at micro stakes there are so many spots where opps are checking with some showdown value and folding to big overbets etc i feel like just this video improved me by 30%.
Now it's time to study these bluffing spots even more to get it on my subconscious level:)
btw - the ending where u only showed hands that you LOST so we aren't result-oriented just shows how amazing a coach you are 👏👏
This is really good content. Thank you. Boiling it down to concepts I can understand and helping to make sense of the data is remarkably useful.
My pleasure. It blows my mind that so few people are taught these fundamental concepts.
Hey Pete , this has helped my game and coupled with CPS has given me a way on how to bluff effectively. For the most part it has a high frequency of working.
Cheers Pete. Any chance for future content we get at least 1080p on the videos?
What are we doing on a 6 of diamonds river on the third node, are we also 3-barreling that river or just offsuit 6?
How is "bet check bet on favorable runnouts" (hand #2) a mandatory bet if we are giving up with 8 high on the river (87s) or T high (T8s) for example? Considering this a "must bluff" spot seems wrong to me.
Hand 1: what about the pot control range that pretty much never folds the river bet? That are tuns of Ax and even Qx that take that line.
I often play with a different sizing on the River with the 53's hand. I often use 30/40bb or shove. The strongest hand of Villain is A6s (2 combos) and all of his second strongest hands are a top pair (AJ-) and I'm pretty sure that near of all of the pool will never call a top pair against a shove.
These exploits definitely exist. Your line makes very little sense for value in spot 1 when you make a giant overbet but most people won’t care about that.
Fantastic work Mr Pete. Carrot Corner makes Education exciting
The point about being able to envisage the +ev of a line/action is very hard to grasp because it takes imagination to see the same +ev bluff (in situation 1) where it does work by not being callled
Thanks again. First example. In the real world the checking range of villain is even weaker than GTO and more change our bluff will print ev. The second examples scares me a little bit :) I am really surprised our equity is that high on a lot of turn cards. ., With a k or A river i would definitely bluff, against tags i would bluff from now on because they will value bet thinly, but against more passive players at 25nl i prefer a give up.
You are a great coach bro! Cheers from Brazil!
So much meat on the bone with this one. Thank you, Pete!
This should def be behind a paywall imo. ☘️
100%
Disagree
Sometimes have to throw some crumbs for the ducks.
I have youtube premium and this feels like overpaying. tl;dr, bluffing is incentivized when vil is wide, or you have good blockers, or you have a hand with 0 showdown. When is the last time you guys didnt bluff when you had a crappy hand with no showdown value. Also he was happy to talk about how much +ev some bluffs were but neglected to explain the -ev calls you are supposed to make
@@stormkk can u elaborate on -EV calls “you are supposed to make”? Do you mean -EV from the pov of the whole hand? If not I thought by definition -EV calls should not be calls as fold is the better line at 0EV.
So, is world Favorability basically a combination of nut and range advantage?
Yep and position (especially on the earlier streets) for example you generally have to be a lot more selective with turn bluffs when OOP
What do we do on the j9o hand when the river completes the flush?
Flush blockers to what villain can X/C OTT become most relevant, rather than trips and straight blockers.
wow, concept from 1st hand was badass
You have great content. I am going to buy the injection course.
In the first hand - isn’t it just intuitive to bet this hand as you are ~ 100% losing if you check that river but
If there was zero loss when your bluff got called this would hold but you have to factor in the additional chips risked, not just the win frequency. That being said these spots are typically a risk/reward ratio that is in your favour.
This video is too good Pete thanks!!
You're mistaking EV with equity. EV is displayed in chips, not in %. Other than that, nice content!
Why is holding a queen bad in the last hand?
Excellent content, as usual
i have so much to learn
I always appreciate succinct tips
Pete. That last hand was filthy. You put on a ski mask, leather gloves and tried to straight-up rob that poor soul.
On the last hand, I think exploitatively the triple barrel wouldn't really work because when you look at the hands folding on the river (21:53), there are a lot of hands that most people would have already folded on the turn (KQo, KJo, KJs, KTs). And without all those hands folding, this river spot is going to be underfolded (especially since BB is also supposed to fold some AJ/AT/A9 on the river which most people would call). So I think bluffing wider on the turn and giving up on the river would work better in practice.
This is absolute horseshit. This type of thinking is literally why you're likely to be hardstuck low stakes with a terrible redline.
You're not expecting an Ace to fold when youre trippling here. Villain has loads of 8x, 7dXd some 99 etc that are going to call the turn but fold to a river bomb.
You will have some weaker villains that may even fold A2-A5s facing a 150% river overbet (they shouldn't but some % of the reg population do).
When you're in this node you also have to recognise that villains have had the opportunity to 3b pre but called, to XR flop with some 88 but called, XR turn with some 7788 nutted hands etc but called and now arrive at river. Some vils will greed donk here with some of their value some % of time so their range is further weakened.
2 barrel and giving up always on boards like this is an absolute crime
@@agnorax I think you missed that I referred to the specific sim showed at 21:53. You say "You're not expecting an Ace to fold when youre trippling here", but the sim clearly shows that villain is supposed to fold a portion of his AT, A9, A4, A3. Even AJ is mostly folding, which is not something people do.
That's my point, that most villains won't fold those hands, which makes the spot underfolded. Which means that a normally breakeven bluff become -EV in that situation.
I'm not saying that Villain never folds, there are definitely a lot of hands that fold, I'm just saying that if Villain folds less that they should, then a breakeven bluff becomes losing.
@@rogorz_ On one hand I could continue arguing with you on the other the risk of educating you of a massive leak in your game/thinking isn't worth it. good luck.
@@agnorax think about your weakened range theory. How often Is the Caller meant to Raise with such a nutted hand as 88-77 on a board where the paired aces on flop makes the OR triple barrelling so frequent?The J9 combo Is only slightly winning in a GTO world, if you block some of the Caller defense across flop and turn you'll probably get that this combo Is slightly losing vs a NL25-NL50 field as the flop and turn bet Will overperform in terms of Fold Equity given the paired Aces on the board
My experience is that people fold more bigger hands than most players expect. We don’t get shown what they fold. We do see their calls. I think there’s a bias in a lot of these situations and am generally really wary of unquantified exploitative claims. Mass data suggests there’s more fold equity than we like to assume in quite a few spots.
Good job
35c crushes 34d... surely bluffing isn't that necessary here? 😂
I dont want to sound like a GTO nerd, but the EV button doesnt express as a % of pot. It's "chips".
At least, that is what my pio does.
There is a way though to show pio as % of pot is my understanding
@@redraw0160 Probably, I would love to know how as I find it's much easier to view it through that lense. I see now that on his pio is says "in % of pot" in small text. Anyone know how to change that?
This is % pot. You can change it in Tools > Configuration.
@@CarrotCornerPoker legend, thanks mate. Love the content 👍