I Got The WORLD RECORD On Panga's TERRIBLE Level...
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- Опубліковано 11 вер 2024
- Good friend @PangaTAS is back to his old tricks again, making a new level that requires you to pick the correct door 7 times in a row. The only problem is, the doors are COMPLETELY RANDOM and it's up to chance whether you pick correctly or not!
Big thanks to Chris for editing this video!
Check out the DGRchives channel: / @dgrplus
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"You're killing it autism" is on the list of phrases I didn't expect to hear this morning...
Good thing about randomized doors is that viewing the level in the level editor doesn't help. You can only do it legit.
I don’t know if that’s a good thing.
Amazing
@@discussions. If it had a secret exit it would be worse
Isn’t it funny after him picking random people to get it, he gets it after a couple of tries, by himself? Face it, he didn’t want to give anyone a permanent vip. 🙄😒 that is not a coincidence. I saw right through that crap.
@@Southernguy41 huh
When Panga explained this. It was SO devious. Using RNG to create a Perfect Pick a Path that is NOT hot garbage.
its just pick a path at the end of the day
Well it's still hot garbage to play, it's just really neat hot garbage.
It would be even better if it didn't cover up the sound effects from the mechanism.
No it’s still hot garbage. It’s just hot garbage with thought behind it.
It's how fucking garbage
Nice to see the chat joining the fun!
When Dave said "I heard a sound!", i was focusing on it, and Dave started screaming ... never doing that again XD
Turning up the volume on DGR videos is the worst thing to do. -And using logic, when Dave screws up a lot in trolls-
Yeah #DGR yelled so loud that my headphones popped and had my ears ringing while wearing my headphones. He needs to just lean back away from the microphone or adjust it. He went from cool, calm, soothing voice to straight up screaming!!
@@matthewallen5994 Aren't there mics that have some automatic volume changer with loud noises?
@@Kurachi84dont know if you saw Panga's 'making of' vid, but he talks about all the steps he took to eliminate audio clues too, lol. I think he put in extra clown cars to help mask things as well as using the "tv on/off" sound effect to coverup any potential red/blue switch block
I'm the type of person who would just keep picking one door every time until it's that side seven times in a row.
Because when it's 50/50, LLLLLLL has the same probability of it being LRLRLRL or LLRLRRL or any other specific sequence
This guy knows probability.
@@underthepale and I _h a t e_ it
@@M_AlexanderI do, too. You're not the only one, cursed with knowledge...
Technically speedrun strat, too
@@kylecote7261 I do it because the odds of the successful choice being something I used previously but not this time is demoralizing. It's not "if I make the right choice" but rather "until it works"
Dave yells "Six! Six! Six!" and then wins... coincidence? Yes.
spooky
The probability of it being left 4 times in the raw is the same as every single combination. The probability is always 50-50, what you said is called "the gambler's fallacy"!
Even better, the failed attempt before that ended when he picked right, but left was correct, meaning it had already been left 4 times in a row when he said that. lol
Well yes, each individual sequence is equally likely, but it being left 4 out of 4 is still less likely than there being at least one right or two or even three.
@@justsayin...1158Once you've already seen left 3 times, that doesn't matter, the next chance is still 50/50, regardless of how many times in a row it has previously been left. Left, left, left, left is the exact same probability as left, left, left, right.
@@ultlifeform Yes, that's what I described. The probability of each sequence of equal length is the same, but it is less likely to find 4 out of 4 being on the same side than to find only 3 out of 4 on the same side. In fact it is most likely to find a 50:50 split between both sides. At the same time this doesn't make guessing the correct sequence any easier.
@@justsayin...1158 I'm not sure about the 50/50 split. 50/50 is the chance in a single attempt. Theoretically if you have 100 attempts, the probability of being 50 in the left and 50 in the right (or 55/45, or whatever) is the same as 100/0.
I was there during the live stream, took a nap, came back and Dave was STILL trying to beat the level 😂
I love panga's villan arc
Every time you said Giznaked instead of Gizanked it felt like a steamroller went over my shoulders. Fantastic work, second to a nun
50/50 is always 100% wrong
Why do I agree with you😨
@@Chnsleepy because i'm never wrong
Too true
Lol
House always wins. Will always be rigged.
Edit: Ignore my initial timing data, it's wrong because I assumed a run where he dies takes 2 mins to make. I'll make corrections.
That first level has a 0.5^7 or 0.78125% chance for clearing it (assuming you don't die in an unintended way), meaning you'll expect on average to play this level 128 times to clear it once, or almost -4 and a half hours- 1 hour 10 mins.
And play this level 586 times for a 99% chance of clearing the level. Or almost -19 and a half hours- 5 hours 24 mins to clear.
Dave cleared this level in around 200 attempts (I'm guessing from the end time of 1 hr 50 mins for a 2 min completion time), which is -a 0.5%- 79% chance of happening. A little unlucky, but not crazy unlucky.
Or it would be there wasn't a bias in which door is correct. Anyways, good luck completing this level, and make sure you leave a whole evening for doing this one 👍
Also 3:12 While the odds of it not being left 4 times in a row are low, he already cleared 3 lefts, so that means it's no less likely to be left from right again.
You're not assuming that every death takes 2 minutes are you? You can do all seven doors in 2 minutes, so dying on the first door (which is 50% of runs) is much quicker than that.
@@somecleverthing yep, your correct. My timing information is bogus in that case.
The timing info is actually more complex than expected. So you would have to get the chances of reaching each door, and multiply that with the time taken to reach the door, than add it all up for an average time on a run.
Well, time taken to reach a door is the door number times 2/7 minutes.
This works out to be about 0.5513 minutes per run on average, or 33 secs. That makes more sense since he'll most likely die in the early doors.
I still think this timing is wrong, I bet I haven't accounted for something else, but in that case, I'll only be wrong by a few seconds. So this should be good.
Allow me to get my statistics professor
The left 4 times in a row part is even funnier, because the previous run ended when he picked right, but left was correct, meaning it was already left 4 times in a row.
Percentage chances of making it through each stage (Slight rounding for simplicity):
1: 50%
2: 25%
3: 12.5%
4: 6.25%
5: 3.12%
6: 1.56%
7: 0.78%
The reason it seems random is the claw room. Nothing is truly random in programming.
In Mario Maker, "random" effects are created by checking an string of values generated based on player inputs. Panga designed a room where it would be very difficult for the player to duplicate their inputs each lap, therefore allowing their door setup the illusion of seeming like a coin flip.
In theory, a TAS could make the correct door appear at will by executing a specific and consistent series of inputs that could be duplicated. If Dave had a consistent route, he could as well. Which I suspect is why he had so many runs of the same door. He was finding some level of consistency and didn't realize.
Yeah Ceave made a level like this where you had to climb some claws to get into a temple and it would be like a rogue-like every time. I was able to always consistently play the same intro level each time because I got so used to getting into the temple every time. But this looks a lot harder to replicate accurately, so it'll give off the illusion of true RNG much more efficiently.
An entire video about people flipping a coin, I'm watching the whole thing
I'm so glad DGR played this level. It was the first thing I thought of when I saw Panga's video about it.
*Warning, long and technical*
Fun Fact: in SMM2 RNG is fake. It's based entirely on the player's actions, that's why Auto levels are so impressive. So by doing the exact same thing, the exact same thing will happen even when it should be random. The best way to have "true" randomness is to use bumpers and claws because of how hard they are to consistently control.
Note: doors don't reset the RNG but pipes do.
Fun fact: just about all game rng is fake.
@@foxymetroid yeah but SMM1 was more realistically random from the moment you start.
Start a level with a clown car on spike traps in the first one and you can't predict which way it'll go, while in the second one it's the same every time as long as you don't move before it gets hurt. Ceave did a whole video on SMM2 randomizers and even used this level's concept to "make pick a door worse" as he put it. Except he only had to do it once but had four doors to choose from.
So theoretically if you program a TAS to perform the exact same set of inputs, you can always get the exact same outcomes of doors? Or are the inputs independent from the RNG?
5:20 I thought there was an extremely straight cat hair on my phone screen. I spent far longer than I should have trying to get it off.
You know, the odds of correctly making a 50-50 guess 7 times in a row are 1 out of 128. The clear rate is much higher than that, 1 out of 57.5 as of the point that you beat it. I wonder if there's a bias in that "random" behavior towards a particular path, or if those 6 clears just got lucky? More data is necessary.
You could theoretically make a tas that does the same movement every time to easily beat it
@@MikeBS1 agreed!
I think someone in Panga video setup said you could know which way it was correct because the timing of the first explosion is not exactly the same (after the first door)
The game's rng seems to be based on player input, hence the need for all the bouncy things at the start.
I agree that more data is needed. There’s no way a couple hundred data points is enough data for something with less than a 1% chance of success.
Actually the probability of it being right four times in a row, *given that it was just right three times in a row,* is 50%
And it is theoretically cheesable; if your moves are exactly the same each time, the RNG will produce the same outcomes each time.
That’s not how that works, right once, would be a 1/2 chance, twice a 1/4, three times a 1/8 and so on… As the probability of a 50/50 having a repeated result doubles every time you run the 50/50.
@@Cagli0stro That's exactly how it works. After you already know the first three are right, there is only one more unknown left - and it's a 50/50 chance.
@@jdotoz the odds of getting the pattern of say… left, right, then right again would be 1/8. The odds of getting right again would indeed be a 50/50, but what I’m saying is that the odds of getting the specific pattern of left, right, right, and right in the example I’m using would be 1/16
@@Cagli0stro You are not reading what I'm writing.
Keep it up! Love the videos. It's controlled by an on off masked by a sound effect, but it does look like the screen may still rumble slightly if it switches (with two rumbles if it stays the same), maybe worth checking out : )
You can watch Panga's video creating this level and see how he masked the signs.
No, the screen will always rumble the same
No such thing a true random in a computer, however the game draws randomness from the player inputs, which is why Panga added the chaotic section before reaching the door, it forces the player to press various inputs to pass it slightly different every time, ensuring a "random" door. If you were able to script perfect frame inputs and pass that first section 100% predictably, you'd get the same door every time.
18:30 is when Dave beats the panga level. It was too repetitive for me to watch. Amazing you had the patience to do that Dave! You should go shiny hunting next with that level of patience lol.
I feel like you just take the left door 7 times in a row because it's faster, right? The only reason you wouldn't is because of the gamblers fallacy
“We’re picking again, autism!” Me to myself whenever I have to make decisions
This seems like it would've been a fun live stream. 🙂
I always get that piece of heart from the Treasure Box game before I become an adult, so I don't use the lens of truth. One tactic that I found that helps is to pick one pattern at the beginning and not deviating from that pattern.
I always love seeing these two crossover cause they’re my two favorite streamers
The sound theory seemed correct - there was 2 sound pitches high and low that seemed to indicate left or right
I like his reaction at 16:33
6:25 definitely thought we were about to get a new "I trust you" clip there
Panga's level was confusing but interesting at the same time. That was awesome. I'll never know how they did it
Panga made a video explaining it
@@KillTheLamb1 I need to check it out sometime. Thanks 🙂
To paraphrase Jurassic Park: Just because you could doesn't mean you should.
This man has infinite dad energy
Nice to hear I was mentioned in a DGR vid 😂. Even if I only got one correct on Panga’s level
18:12 -My churchgoer family upon seeing my style during Christmas 2005
Real ones know that going left every time is optimal.
Well. We dont know for certain. I get what you're saying but....
We dont know what the fastest route through that room does to the RNG. A perfect bumper room could mean left is bad.
Practically optimally, just choose left. But truly optimally? Man, who even knows.
Lol the probably of it being left 4 times in a row is practically impossible... I'm guessing DGR hasn't flipped a coin 100 times for school.
fun fact: the odds of it being left 4 times in a row are actually identical to the odds of it being left 3 times in a row followed by a right on the next attempt
It's always a great day when DGR uploads!
Sure is!
That’s why every day is a good day!
Panga is a cool dude glad you did his level
Bearware be like "But I don't want to do good, I want to make people look dumb!" and I for one support it.
17:43 True randomness doesn’t exist in programming
Is it me or is it the direction of the platform that indicates which door to choose? Like when it goes left you go in the left door. If I'm wrong time stamp it for me.
Never-mind lol it was just me.
Love the message from GrandPooBear when he subscribed
(how i personally cleared this level) 2 on the right. 5 on the left. Going through the first half with the claws and trampolines, you have to try and imitate the same exact maneuvers you did every time prior before reaching the 2 doors. That's exactly what I did to beat the level. This could obviously also just be the probability i somehow got lucky with.
It'd have been hilarious if after getting through the seventh correct he does a victory lap guess.
Imagine this level, but with precision jumping and a time limit of 100 seconds.
I love that he is interacting with his viewers.
Dave got possessed at 18:12
So, about how the all rng level Panga made, the way he set it up, the rng follows an algorithm based on where the player character is at in any given moment, in the level. Because of that, even his rng level you can manipulate the rng in your favor
in theory. Good luck trying to consistently go through the obstacle course consistently with the same inputs every time.
Needed a troll fish hidden block at the end if you try to get top of flag.
I know it's completely random which door is correct, but it seems to be that whatever side of the first door you were on when you entered, the correct door is the opposite side, so if you enter the first door on the left, the correct door is the right one.
60% of the time it works 100% of the time. 😂
Panga was showing us how he made it to manipulate your input so that you can’t do the section exactly the same and get the same result. 🤪 I don’t think he had uploaded it yet when he made the making of video. I bet it took a while to upload.😅
I remember watching the video about how this was made when it came out, and was wondering when dgr would play it
7:56 I'm a good person
That Panga level has gotten me thinking about Quantum Immortality.
Really should be logging all the results to search for any subtle bias error in the RNG. EDIT and SPOILERS (I guess): Didn't watch closely for time or goomba-kill skips, but based on the attempts we see, it's 23-21 to live on the left and 29-16 to live on the right. May be some bias error there, though the sample size is too small to say with any certainty. Another comment noting that the clear rate was much higher than 1 in 128 does suggest there may be something exploitable that people are noticing, either said bias error or potentially the camera shake noted in yet another comment.
Also, RNG in Mario Maker is determined by player movement so if someone somehow managed to replicate their exact movements during the lead up to the pick-a-door then they could make it the same choice every time
Just as sidenote:
The probability of 7x left door is the same as for every other combination
Similar to lottery..
Numerical order has the same probability as random numbers.. That's why it's stupid to pay extra for "strategy" (just in case your country also has that)
6:26 Dave eats a Mario
It's not entirely RNG, and it js in fact still skill based. The doors change based on movement, and Panga made it almost impossible to replicate movement every time with Donuts, Claws, and Springs. If you had perfect placement each time, you could go same door and win. So technically jt was a skill issue on Dave's part.
I'm surprised at the 1.7% clear rate.
Statistically, it should be below 1%
Hey DGR uh I don’t usually ask but can you wish me a happy birthday :) 🎂
After watching this video, I can confidently say that when in doubt, or when on the fence, right is always right 😅
There is a pattern here. Let me know if you want to know it…..
I'm not sure if this level is completely random...seemed like as long as you entered a door at a full run it was automatically correct (possible cheese?) but if you paused to pick a door the rng kicked in...granted this is based on a sample size of one so the accuracy is probably less than a percent...just an interesting observation of the full run...entertaining as always.
Penga made a video, the door doesn't influence anything
ahhh...that would be a better explanation...lol @@bastionsea2829
Why is the clear rate 1.5% when it should be 0.78%. There must be some error in the level?
The best thing of this is: if you TAS and you always do the same imputs you will get it easy. Every frame counts so the first time it's different, the other 6 are the same. PLZ don't TAS SMM2.
That’s how you stream!! One of the best to do it!
Can’t you listen for the red/blue blocks to switch and from that tell which door you should go in?
How did you get world record on a downloaded course? Bait?
lol, you have a literally 1 in 128 chance of beating that level. Better than the one someone made that was something like 13 in several billion XD (a padlock level )
DGR no longer has the World Record. Check Panga's level yourself.
tbh i don't think he ever had it, i think he just downloaded the level while my accidental wr still existed and played it after it was gone. i don't remember the notification of the wr being stolen saying his username and i think it was someone else. The level statistics in the downloaded tab only update if you play the level there, then enter course world
See the blocks right, when explode the door change
Dosent work
The chance of winning this level is 0.0078%
20:05 Why didn’t you try the pipe?
I was amazingly good at guessing the correct doors. Too bad I wasn't there for the stream!
When he says "never tell me the odds" but you already did the math 😪
SMM do not have randomness all that change the outcome is how long the first room take if you did do it exactly the same each time the same door will be correct each time
WOW!!! #DGR at 18:12 you screamed so freaking loud that it nearly busted my ears out while I was listening thru my headphones. I understand why you got so excited but next time can you move further away from the microphone! You literally went from talking in this cool, calm, soothing voice to straight up screaming at the level. And until 18:45 I had to keep my volume really low because your voice stayed at such a high level. Sometimes you get a little excited and just holler, I really think you need to adjust your microphone or find a different one, just a suggestion and just my opinion. I really do enjoy your content, I have been a fan for 5 or 6 years now, I'm just asking that you try not to scream into the microphone so loud, thanks. #DGR #SMM2 #TROLLED #SENSEC #DGRplus #UnclearedLevelSeries #UnoMas
It feels like you are playing a Trolled Level
So how are these doors randomized exactly?
Lets goo!
I wanna know how long it took panga to clear this.
If I was picked I would of said right 7 times
It was frustrating to watch the video, I can assume how painful it must be for you to get through this level 😂
Helo iam back! I haven't watch your videos fro so long.
I'll play any dark underwater level over an RNG pick a door.
I was lol thinking dgr would rush thought the door to before the bomb could hit the block and would die on the 8th time
How's this even possible
Geek saw the arrow. I have no idea how, but she did.
I think I might have figured out a way to easily beat Panga's level.
The Zelda game ist not really luck based. I learned you can use the eye of truth to seeing inside the chest to get the piece of heart. Like the Level Viewer, which tells you the truth xD
Why weren't Mentos in the video? xD
nice vid!!!!!!!!
Hi DGR! I hope you're doing well! I just needed to thank you for all you have done for us. I wish you and you're family an amazing 2024!
By my amateur calculations the probability of beating the level is 1:2^7 aka 1:128. So presumably only one time out of 128 attempts would be successful. This would yield a sub 1% clear rate cementing its place in super expert. Any math folks who can check my work?
Presumably some people would get the 1/128 on attempts 1 or 2 or 5 or 10 while others won't get it until 128 or even 150 or 200 (assuming no deaths). With enough attempts it should normalize to .78%
Amanda would've picked right
I saw the video of how Panga made the level.
#DGR Go Big Blue!!!
The probability for beating this level was 0,78% 😮
10:02-10:09 #intro