Episode 57: The One Prediction That Seems Safe

Predictions of the future are bound to go wrong...even ones made by works as relatively prophetic as The Fourth Turning. But as we approach the 2022 midterms, we can say there is one prediction that seems safe.
References to follow

[@ryanhunsader7038]

I’ve been thinking about this a lot as well. The end here when you said about the lack of shared reality is the part that keeps me up at night. Two worldviews with differing realities usually never ends well.

[@sasha-stone]

"The collapse of a sense of shared reality." Wow. It can't bear it, honestly.

[@generationreport]

I plead guilty to the charge of having a special disdain for Chris Hayes.

[@sasha-stone]

@@generationreport Ha same.

[@IvyANguyen]

Some followers of Strauss & Howe's theory posit that there is a double cycle layered over the main one in the book where the 4th Turnings have alternating types: the fracturing US Civil War style and the unifying Great Depression/WW2 type. The times that preceeded and followed both types of 4th Turnings were pretty different. With the Civil War, what followed was Reconstruction that got interrupted by the Gilded Age of robber barons which is feeling much like where we are headed once again. A question: If it turns out these 2 types of 4th Turnings are possible, when does the divergence that leads to this occur at? Does it happen during the previous Unravelling, Awakening, or High? Given the current 4T hasn't fully played out, we don't know if we are truely getting an 1860s (internal divisions peak in a war) or 1770s/1940s-style 4T (external forces threat that unify the country).

[@generationreport]

To your first point: I have noticed that. I tend to look at each era just on its own.
To answer your question: I wouldn't say there's just one point in time when the divergence happens like a clean break. But Awakenings are definitely the most important, because that's when the revolutions in cultures and ideas and social mores take place. The 1960s really did pave the way for what we're seeing today, in SO many respects.

[@ricardodsavant2965]

Money quote: The collapse of a shared 'reality.'

[@generationreport]

Eh...I can't take credit. Lots of people are saying the same.

[@ricardodsavant2965]

@@generationreport - first time I heard it though.