The Next Stock Market Move Will Shock Many....
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- Опубліковано 28 чер 2024
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Timestamps:
0:00 - Indexes
5:05 - PPI Data + Bonds
14:20 - Equity Risk Premium
19:40 - Stocks to Watch - Розваги
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Hey there, I've been trading for about 6 months now because I'm not smart enough to invest long term and pretty much every trade slaps me. Almost impossible for me to catch more than a few points. I'm trying to do top down analysis and MTF analysis but it doesn't work for me. I tell myself, clearly I'm one of the 90% who lose money, so I open a demo account, do my analysis, then take the opposite of what I would normally take (I know, it sounds stupid but I was desperate) and get the same result. I'm starting to despair, any advice for a struggling trader?
Your problem could be that your stop loss is way too close or you're watching your trades too much. Place it and walk away. Or you could just give up, trading isn't for everyone.
Don't get discouraged, keep going. Trading takes years to master, even the pros are always learning. If you're losing money no matter what, maybe focus on how you manage active trades, not just how you enter them. Moving stops to breakeven can help. Find a mentor and try using oscillators or RSI to improve your entries and avoid overtrading. Also, consider moving to higher timeframes (4H or 1D). You'll thank me later.
You're right, I don't lose money every single trade, but my main problem is trying to let my runners run. Very rarely do I catch big moves . Instead they go a few pips in my direction, then go against me if when I try holding them. Also my entries could use a lot of improvement. A mentor would be amazing, but getting one is easier said than done. If it's not too much, does any come to mind?
I think the most important thing you should know is staying away from the lower TF. Also, it's important to keep an eye on the environment too, ie DXY if it isn't doing too well or is a bit choppy, chances are dollar denominated pairs are in for a ride too. In this case, it's probably better to get in and out of your positions quicker
Also, I know how you feel; many traders, including myself, lose significant amounts when starting. It's common to feel pressured and lose confidence after a bad trade, but things improve. The best advice is to find a mentor who can guide you, trade on your behalf, and teach you. Amie Layton helped me after multiple losses, leading to significant gains. Don't forget, risk management is another key part of trading
To clarify, since some of us have questions about this:
TNX is the 10 year yield (how much of a percentage interest you would get every year if you had a 10 yr Treasury bond). It goes opposite to the price of the bond.
TLT is the long dated Treasury bond itself (20 yrs or longer), so TNX goes in opposite direction to TLT.
When investors "buy bonds", TLT goes up and TNX goes down.
When investors "sell bonds", TLT goes down and TNX goes up.
thank for the ERK, and shared it
THank you. definitely appreciate the equity risk content as well as other data points you think have merit to the current market dynamics.
Yes, please keep sharing why things are moving the way that they are & what you think is important. I learn tons from you all the time and for a long time. Thank you
I like your information and style. You are a big help. Good levels
Is TNX the ticker to watch for all bond auctions?
Love the market internal stuff! its helping me so much in my daily thought process❤
Stop asking for comments. You Rock. And no matter what anyone says. They learn something. Thanks Bro
Lol kidding ya know?
amen🤘
Your content is top notch. Love the market overview and your thoughts.
Thank you!
Excellent content very Professional, just like the trading room
Equity risk premium is very helpful. It definitely shapes the way I trade, thank you! Any comments into why money on the sidelines is not flooding in? Or when are they expecting to jump back into the market? Not too sure where to start looking at when the lack of volume begins to be a factor!
100% agree
Great content, learned a lot from you over last couple years
I found lots of insight on today’s video
This certainly sounds good too, but I think it's still worth considering more reliable options like copy trading platforms such as Eledator, for example.
This is great, just wish it was out yesterday :)
Thank you as always ❤️
No comment on after hour gap?
Regarding the bond auctions… Do the different bond auctions have separate $tickers?
TNX is for bonds but 10-20-30yr bonds auctions share the same ticker. Hopefully this question made sense.
^TYX 30 year
^TNX 10 year
^FVX 5 year
^IRX 13 week tbill
To clarify, the ticker is for the Treasury bond itself. This has nothing to do with auctions. Auctions are events where the government sells its Treasury bonds to fund the government.
If your question is what duration treasury bond has which ticker, the answer is:
SHY 1-3 yrs
IEI 3-7 yrs
IEF 7-10 yrs
TLT 20 or more yrs
Each of these groups of bonds has a ticker that tracks the yield (how much percent you would get holding on to the respective treasuries)
These are
^IRX 13 weeks
^FVX 5 yrs
^TNX 10 yrs
^TYX 30 yrs
TLT 20
@@timothykousky6720 Thank You
@@Agooo13431
Thank You
Your content goes to show how much actual homework n prep work is involved to be a consistent profitable trader
I'd also note for future. Look at ADBE 1/4T$ company rips and NQ fades. Shit ain't healthy
Sir--- such a MUTOMBO on the Roaring Kitty GME lies at the end! Kudos to you! 😅
I like your videos esp explanations of fundamentals. You have been telling us that buyback window ends on Jun 14. This should be major news and have many consequences, but I have not been able to find it on any internet searches or news sites. Can you tell us where we can find evidence of this?
When you say the are buying bonds are you saying tnx is going up? Also is this good for TLT?
When demand for bonds increases, the yield decreases because the treasury doesn't have to increase yields to incentivize investor confidence.
Notably, there are more factors that can influence the bond market too, so it’s only one gear, i’m not an expert by any means, i’m learning :)
TNX is the 10 year yield (how much of a percentage interest you would get every year if you had a 10 yr Treasury bond). It goes opposite to the price of the bond.
TLT is the long dated Treasury bond itself (20 yrs or longer), so TNX goes in opposite direction to TLT.
When investors "buy bonds", TLT goes up and TNX goes down.
When investors "sell bonds", TLT goes down and TNX goes up.
@@Agooo13431 Thank you very much!!! Yields do increase when bond prices decline showing poor demand though, correct? This is also in part to older bonds with lower yields being less desirable in the 2nd hand bond market.
@@Agooo13431 the correlation is important, but understanding why the correlation occurs is equally important.
@@XxJoshua2012xX yes, you are right. Duration, attractiveness of the underlying bond, the basic Federal Fund Rate, which is set by the Fed at each FOMC meeting, and the credit rating of the bond-issuer are all factors in deciding the yield of the bond.
I got 550 strike calls on adobe exp 9/20. My neck is shaking like a toddler in excitement right now
Ooooof... Congrats. Just saw the move. Great one
@@thorstenkock1803 thank you 🙏
Congratulations 🎉
Sell it tomorrow and take profit. Don't make the mistake of waiting for it to hit your strike. If you do, you will watch it lose a lot of value each and every day.
You can always enter ADBE again at a later date when it pulls back
@@Agooo13431 absolutely, I work during the day I couldn’t handle the psychological warfare of not knowing what it’s doing 😆 I’m taking the money and running 🏃
What made you buy them & when did you get in?
Regardless of where it opened, AVGO traded down all day. Its down further AH. Seems like the bond auction saved the market today, and more and more we are going to need daily catalysts just to keep the market afloat. Dow and Russel have clearly diverged, and what would be the impetuous for them both to get back up to all time highs? Either Dow and Russell lead us down or ES and NQ pull everything up, but this cant last like this much longer.
I think Dow and Russell have bottomed today
i did really well with 0dte spy options today, its what i mainly trade
I stare at charts for hours and hours and hours. Made out well this year but something feels off right now that I haven’t seen for some time or really ever to this degree. How is everything I mean almost everything red making new lows some all time lows while we r up 4 days in a row on basically 5-10 names.
Something is really off on this ATH
YASSS
Equty risk premium is -0.40%. LoL
Shouldnt equity investors get better compensated for the risk they are taking as opposed to treasury investors?
That prooves market is mispriced. Either eatnings must be hugher or the ptice must be lower.
Please correct me if im wrong
More click bait
I honestly don't understand why you're discussing these dubious schemes. There are plenty of options like Eledator and similar ones that are fast and profitable.
It's all gunna crash like a mofo now.
No it won't. Not now.
The crash will come, but it's not time for it yet.
@@Agooo13431 you'll see...
That’s what every newbie says lol just go with the trend until the trend changes
$ANET is up because $AVGO mentioned them et. al. in their earnings call. We're in a anything AI market if that holds.
Did you all see Musk high-fiving the bros?
Like the videos. Don’t like the click & bait titles. “The turn” “Next move will shock everyone”.
It’s called advertising. Just watch if you know the content is good. He’s trying to get new eyes aka get more views aka more money. Let him have crazy titles unless you’re going to pay him lol
@@tehuti112 lol I know. It is to get UA-cam to pay him more.